The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com
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I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?2 -
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either0 -
He won't know. He might suspect, but he won't know.ThomasNashe said:
How will he know who voted against him? It’s a secret ballot, so I’d expect public declarations of loyalty that are not necessarily matched by the way the votes are cast.Scott_xP said:This is exactly the type of speculation that would begin circulating if the PM felt uncomfortable about the payroll vote https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533739380027928579
But lashing out with threats that can't be enacted fairly is what people do when they are losing control of the situation.1 -
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.0 -
I agree - this feels more like a groundswell than a concerted rebellion with someone in the wings pulling strings. Enough had had enough.kle4 said:
I dont get the 'moved too soon' argument. If someone is still for him the by elections wont change their minds. It might not succeed, but it's been rumbling for months, it was time to put up.CarlottaVance said:R4 - contrasting views between Fraser Nelson “rebels have moved too soon” and Sebastian Payne “unless it’s a big win Johnson is not out of danger as 1922 can change rules”. If there is contest, coronation may be preferred.
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And Major 1992 led to the party's worst landslide defeat since 1832 in 1997 and 13 years in opposition.Heathener said:If he does go before the next General Election I think that booing will come to be remembered as the moment. It was so unexpected. A royalist crowd, a royalist crowd, booing him spontaneously. As a tory MP has remarked today, 'that is our core vote.'
It summed up the visceral anger (and hurt) out there at the moment and if they don't lance this boil they will suffer a crushing defeat at the next General Election and deservedly so.
Today is the day they must come to their senses, clean up the act, and go forward. They could still pull off a Major '92.
Arguably it might have been better for the party to keep Thatcher as PM in 1990, then even if she narrowly lost in 1992 the party would have been less divided and she and her supporters less bitter and who knows Heseltine or Major might then have been Leader of the Opposition anyway and beaten PM Kinnock at the 1997 General Election0 -
It's not exactly installing a phone bankHYUFD said:
I had an electrician in this morning sorting out my heatersOllyT said:
It also appears that the internet is down in the Epping area.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is apparently too busy uncorking champagne bottles to have tweeted this morning.
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It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.StuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.2 -
Yes, I think his fingers will need to be prised off No. 10.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
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I'm sure @Leon has.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I think I've seen this film.HYUFD said:
I had an electrician in this morning sorting out my heatersOllyT said:
It also appears that the internet is down in the Epping area.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is apparently too busy uncorking champagne bottles to have tweeted this morning.
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it would raise my estimation of you (not hard) if you actually read what I SAID rather than what you think I saidHeathener said:Just a quick one for @Leon as I don't have the time to treat this properly, nor am I the person to do so, but the idea that this is all from 'remoaners' is risible.
One of the several core constituencies that Boris Johnson has lost are those who believe the Conservative Party stands, above all, for low taxes and minimal state. I know that there have been extraordinary external circumstances but this Gov't has been gobsmackingly un-Conservative. We have the highest rate of taxation and spending for zillions of years under a CONSERVATIVE Government. It has really pissed people off on the Right, who were jittery anyway because no-one has a clue what he stands for, least of all himself. When you combine that with serial disloyalty (Owen Paterson) you really must understand that the remainer rump really are the least of Johnson's problems.
I’m claiming that the “frothiest anger and the fiercest glee” at Boris behaviour and potential departure comes from “Remoaner Central”
And it does. Look at the most excited people on here. @Scott_xP is practically ejaculating
Of course there is also anger and disappointment aimed at Boris from multiple other sources, including Leavers. I know this as I am one of them. I voted for Leave, but Boris REALLY has to go now (as I have also said today)
But the really unhinged anti-Boris weirdness comes from Remoaners. No question. And as @williamglenn has noted, some of the extreme types see this as the first step back to Rejoin2 -
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.0 -
David Gauke reckons Liz Truss has best chance. He's no fan though.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/06/liz-truss-most-likely-next-tory-leader
"A leadership candidate who can articulate authentically an agenda of lower taxes and deregulation may bring some ideological clarity to a party that feels lost in a Johnsonian miasma. “At least you know where she stands,” is a phrase that brings back fond memories for many Conservatives and one can imagine it being said about Truss."1 -
Al, the difference is that we had years of Adonis and Grieve being cast as "moderates" when the reality is that they were anything but. The whole farce of Boris purging the 30 or so "Tory moderates" was ridiculous, they were all hardcore pro-EU nutjobs who would offer up their first born to Junker and Tusk as a sacrifice to get the UK back in the EU.Northern_Al said:Anybody who thinks that Andrew Adonis is representative of pro-European opinion on the left is as out to lunch as anybody who thinks Mark Francois is representative of Brexiteers. They are both spartans, at the opposite ends.
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OldKingCole said:
Can he get his US citizenship back? Could he run for something over there?Dura_Ace said:
If he loses, which I hope doesn't happen from a comedy persepective, I don't think he'll quit as an MP either.Farooq said:
More a pitiless purge of the infidels who came out publicly against him.Dura_Ace said:
That doesn't seem like his style. If he wins by at least one vote it'll be business as usual (ie shite) and he won't be going anywhere.CorrectHorseBattery said:What Johnson should do, IMHO.
Is win and then call a snap election for the end of this year.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
Now he has renounced his birthright citizenship he has to go through the same procedures as everyone else, which would mean moving there and obtaining it via residency. You can't opt out and then automatically opt back in whenever you feel like it - for what I hope would be obvious reasons.1 -
Did he force the ethernet cable into them?HYUFD said:
I had an electrician in this morning sorting out my heatersOllyT said:
It also appears that the internet is down in the Epping area.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is apparently too busy uncorking champagne bottles to have tweeted this morning.
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No, but I've put a decent wedge on his being out before party conference, chasing the price upwards (Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
) on Betfair.
It's now approaching 3, which I think is quite attractive.
Nothing I'm not prepared to lose, though.1 -
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.0
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A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.5 -
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.Andy_JS said:The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
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Are there many Theresa May fans?Andy_JS said:The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
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No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his disappointingly obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could command her party no longer.0 -
Thanks for that - I've been following the thread all morning hoping someone would fill in the backgroundMorris_Dancer said:As an aside for anyone wondering (apologies for not posting sooner), Perdiccas was the regent after Alexander the Great died, but he almost screwed it up utterly by being a bit hesitant and indecisive which gave a loudmouth (and pretty much nobody) Meleager the chance to bait the crowd (heavily armed veteran Macedonian soldiers) and be given authority.
The elite of Alexander's close companions, minus Craterus who was unfortunately absent and Hephaestion who was unfortunately dead, rallied and manage to reassert themselves.
After which Perdiccas had the followers of Meleager trampled to death by elephants as a subtle way of indicating he should probably keep his head down.0 -
Yes. That’s it.BartholomewRoberts said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tsl7-TJtPewStuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.1 -
I don't think they will be, the membership won't put in any leader that will unwind the TCA. Even if a Hunt character wins they still hold the dagger within Parliament if he starts to backslide.Casino_Royale said:
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.Andy_JS said:The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
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Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.HYUFD said:So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.5 -
How can Brexit be in peril after its already happened .Casino_Royale said:
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.Andy_JS said:The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
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And the greatest existential angst comes from those who voted for the **** and the absolute shitshow that is Brexit.Leon said:I’m claiming that the “frothiest anger and the fiercest glee” at Boris behaviour and potential departure comes from “Remoaner Central”
Guilt is a terrible thing1 -
Only messing with you Andy - the point must be correct. Although outside Scotland, more of an individual choice for MPs.Andy_JS said:
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.0 -
And perhaps she will then be able give Liz Truss some sartorial advice.LostPassword said:.
It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.StuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.0 -
I reckon she sent a letter into Brady as well.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grinsStuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.0 -
From the ashes of one spreadsheet...
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
The biggest surprise so far is that Nadine Dorries wasn't the first https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533742094128492544/photo/11 -
Maggie Thatcher had people willing to tell her that she needed to go.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare all things Boris for eternity and that this will see the final crushing of the Remoaners of his feverish mind.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
Bozo neither has those people nor enough brains to see that now is the time to quietly go and earn so actual money.2 -
So. What's the call then?
I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear.
So gone.
I have no great confidence in this.0 -
They were dire. The more you look at them, the worse you realise they were. Ross bears as much responsibility as Johnson.Andy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.0 -
M. Nakht, no worries.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).0 -
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime MinisterLeon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together0 -
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533730751920885763
Releasing something significant in the next couple of hours.
You've heard of #Partygate. But are you ready for #Deathgate?
#NoConfidence #ToryMps #GrahamBrady0 -
Another cabinet minister is clearly mince.
Coffey says she believes Johnson is trustworthy. "He delivers on the promises he's made to people," she insists...0 -
Whilst practising 'another one bites the dust' on the spoons.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grinsStuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.0 -
Leon said:
Rishi Sunak goes to the movies… in a suit and tie
https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1533400778592899073?s=21&t=30y9fTGr4mWhxuKYehp-EQ
Quite bizarre
Eek twin A mentioned that this morning. I'm guessing he went straight from the office to see something - he was working in Treasury North on Tuesday / Wednesday last week.
Personally we avoid the Vue - Odeon screens 2 and 3 are nicer if I can't be arsed to drive. The Empire at Catterick (in Rishi's constituency) has better seating and screen layout if we can be bothered to drive...0 -
And @Leon you are wrong. Now that we have a VONC the best possible hope for those of us on the Left is that he wins narrowly.
A wounded animal, lurching from side to side for the next two years.
For the sake of this country though I'm afraid we need a swift kill.
p.s. for the avoidance of doubt, if I were to list 50 things that the Government should sort out, rejoining the EU would not even feature on it. I'm genuinely sad to say that this has become an obsessive topic of yours.1 -
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?2 -
And too many backbench MPs are tentatively wiggling the butterknife around in the hope that it will somehow spring him, without electrocuting themselves.Malmesbury said:
He's toast already. The issue is getting him out of the toaster.Benpointer said:
Johnson's toast then.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
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We had a discussion on here about Dorries a few days ago where I pointed out she is not thick as some were suggesting, and actually she is best interpreted as performing a provocative act, which people happily fall for. But Braverman is in another category altogether. Not thick either, but happy and willing to humiliate herself and destroy her professional reputation and dignity as a barrister in pursuit of a political career that seems to be going absolutely nowhere. This is something that would be better filed under 'mysteries'.Nigelb said:
She was in the queue ahead of Nadine ?Roger said:Just heard Suella Braverman. Can anyone solve the mystery of how she became a Cabinet Minister?
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You can now get 3.75 on Boris losing this.Nigelb said:
No, but I've put a decent wedge on his being out before party conference, chasing the price upwards (Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you? ) on Betfair.
It's now approaching 3, which I think is quite attractive.
Nothing I'm not prepared to lose, though.
I don't have any insight but I am not sure the mood fits that.
Could be insider speculation of coruse.0 -
.DecrepiterJohnL said:Dominic Cummings is apparently too busy uncorking champagne bottles to have tweeted this morning.
. 1 -
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.Heathener said:
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either1 -
We've heard a lot of whinged from his people about money woes. It matters to him a lot.Roger said:
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime MinisterLeon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together0 -
I see that PM supporters are doing the "he got the big calls right" shtick and that Partygate was somehow a "small call".
This is the "it's only a small lie" fallacy. No, it's the fact of a lie which is important. Partygate was not a "small call". What can be bigger than integrity, after all?7 -
Exactly right. He's done his job and now he and we can move on. There's little chance a Tory successor would undo his achievements.CarlottaVance said:
Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.HYUFD said:So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
0 -
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.kle4 said:
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.Heathener said:
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either1 -
Morning all.
On acrania, I see (elsewhere - I won't inflict it here) that people are still debating the Schleswig-Holstein question.
0 -
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?0 -
At least fifteen quid?? Quit now Bozzatron!!Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together2 -
I solved it.MattW said:Morning all.
On acrania, I see (elsewhere - I won't inflict it here) that people are still debating the Schleswig-Holstein question.2 -
No.Roger said:Just heard Suella Braverman. Can anyone solve the mystery of how she became a Cabinet Minister?
0 -
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.Andy_JS said:
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
3 -
Looks like Boris will sail through, if the odds are correct.
I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership.
But the odds might tighten as the day goes on.
Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.0 -
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?Nigelb said:
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?0 -
Peppa Pig redux?MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either1 -
Exactly.mwadams said:
And too many backbench MPs are tentatively wiggling the butterknife around in the hope that it will somehow spring him, without electrocuting themselves.Malmesbury said:
He's toast already. The issue is getting him out of the toaster.Benpointer said:
Johnson's toast then.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Will we hear how many letters? My guesstimate for the *floor* for the anti-Johnson vote is 2 x the number of letters.0 -
I think he will survive but be badly wounded. The worst outcome both for the Tories and the country.Nigelb said:
No, but I've put a decent wedge on his being out before party conference, chasing the price upwards (Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you? ) on Betfair.
It's now approaching 3, which I think is quite attractive.
Nothing I'm not prepared to lose, though.
It will be interesting to see whether the poll ratings take a further plunge when people see that we're still stuck with him.1 -
Either it might, or @TOPPING may be clinging on to the past!FrankBooth said:
Is it 1914 again or something?TOPPING said:I don't think the Tory MPs realise that this VONC marks the last hurrah of a different, bygone era. One that we are leaving behind for ever. Is that a good thing? We shall see.
Exciting. Maybe.
It's still the bygone era whilst Labour retains the Union link, and the Greens put Big Government before being green. And arguably until electoral reform.0 -
Yes, he'll do very well financially post-PM. Better if he leaves now, indeed, than if he hangs on and is then thrashed in a GE.TheWhiteRabbit said:
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.kle4 said:
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.Heathener said:
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.MaxPB said:
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.HYUFD said:
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.MaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either1 -
I wonder if there is a secret gallery in Buckingham Palace where the Royal Taxidermist has mounted facsimiles of former PMs' heads on the walls for Her Majesty to gloat over?LostPassword said:.
It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.StuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.0 -
And the longer he stays, the more his value drifts down with his popularity and hair coverage.eek said:
Maggie Thatcher had people willing to tell her that she needed to go.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare all things Boris for eternity and that this will see the final crushing of the Remoaners of his feverish mind.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
Bozo neither has those people nor enough brains to see that now is the time to quietly go and earn so actual money.
He won't be poor, but he could be reduced to going on I'm A Celebrity in a bid for a redemption arc.
Hold on to that thought.0 -
My head says he stays because the PCP are a bunch of quivering, obsequious cowards.dixiedean said:So. What's the call then?
I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear.
So gone.
I have no great confidence in this.
Yet my heart says he goes, because as you say there is simply no good reason to vote for him. I've been away in France for the Whit holiday so missed all the daft royal-bothering but was surprised to read this morning that he was booed by a bunch of cap-doffing monarchists... aren't they supposed to be Tories?0 -
True. Her first Prime Minister was Winston Churchill, the Conservative Party should at least ensure that the comparison with her last Prime Minister isn't such a clunkingly obvious metaphor for the relative decline of the Country's power and prestige.Flatlander said:
Whilst practising 'another one bites the dust' on the spoons.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grinsStuartDickson said:
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.Jonathan said:Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.0 -
I'll happily chip in my share* of the suggested £15m/year if he goes quietly into the night.Nigelb said:
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.
*let's have it as a ringfenced levy on NI. Even then, still under £5/year for me, surely.
Edit: Actually, that lets the pensioners off again, even though Boris is largely their fault. Maybe a yearly levy on pension payments (from pensions to pensioners).0 -
Johnson to address the 1922 at 4pm today.
He may rally them round although his last appearance did not go down well. He has the capability to win them over.0 -
Beginning to look like Nazca with the number of lines drawn.darkage said:Looks like Boris will sail through, if the odds are correct.
I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership.
But the odds might tighten as the day goes on.
Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.0 -
He will speak to us.0
-
The big question: how will Gavin Williamson vote?0
-
Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win
0 -
DRoss will change his mind several times in the lead up to a VONC; I think this may allude to that eventuality.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.0 -
The better example is the 1989 Conservative leadership election, where Maggie squashed the stalking donkey like a bug.CarlottaVance said:
Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.HYUFD said:So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
Less than a year later, she was out.0 -
Predictions time.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.1 -
Last CON poll lead in GB: 6 December 2021 (Redfield & Wilton Strategies).IanB2 said:
I think he will survive but be badly wounded. The worst outcome both for the Tories and the country.Nigelb said:
No, but I've put a decent wedge on his being out before party conference, chasing the price upwards (Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you? ) on Betfair.
It's now approaching 3, which I think is quite attractive.
Nothing I'm not prepared to lose, though.
It will be interesting to see whether the poll ratings take a further plunge when people see that we're still stuck with him.
Last Unionist poll lead in Scotland: 4-7 August 2014 (YouGov/The Scottish Sun).0 -
This Thérèse Coffey (1:05, but starts before)?Nigelb said:Another cabinet minister is clearly mince.
Coffey says she believes Johnson is trustworthy. "He delivers on the promises he's made to people," she insists...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fegra1FLI6o0 -
Anyway, if Boris is kicked out his successor should not be a current Cabinet Minister, all of whom are tainted by being in his Cabinet.
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
2 -
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.MaxPB said:
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.2 -
If Johnson scrapes through just imagine how vindictive he will become to those that questioned his divine right to rule .
0 -
You will have missed Any Questions from, of all places, the Isle of Wight then.Anabobazina said:
My head says he stays because the PCP are a bunch of quivering, obsequious cowards.dixiedean said:So. What's the call then?
I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear.
So gone.
I have no great confidence in this.
Yet my heart says he goes, because as you say there is simply no good reason to vote for him. I've been away in France for the Whit holiday so missed all the daft royal-bothering but was surprised to read this morning that he was booed by a bunch of cap-doffing monarchists... aren't they supposed to be Tories?
It was quite revealing. Open hostility, laughter and ridicule for the oft-trotted lines of argument.0 -
Is there any mechanism for removing Boris should he win the vonc?0
-
The Conservative Party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/15337483898919403523 -
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.MarqueeMark said:
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.MaxPB said:
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.Casino_Royale said:
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.Heathener said:
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.IanB2 said:
Hedging your bets again!Casino_Royale said:
It comes down to organisation.Andy_JS said:At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
Do you?
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.0 -
Braverman going full tonto BJ loyalist on Woman’s Hour. She’s like Nadine without the Chardonnay.0
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Include me out, as someone once said.Selebian said:
I'll happily chip in my share* of the suggested £15m/year if he goes quietly into the night.Nigelb said:
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.dixiedean said:
£15+?Leon said:
More than that, perhapsMaxPB said:
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.Stocky said:
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.Andy_JS said:Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
We could have a whipround.
*let's have it as a ringfenced levy on NI. Even then, still under £5/year for me, surely.
Edit: Actually, that lets the pensioners off again, even though Boris is largely their fault. Maybe a yearly levy on pension payments (from pensions to pensioners).0 -
Parliamentary VONC but he’d only lose that if he lost today and refused to step down as PMAnabobazina said:Is there any mechanism for removing Boris should he win the vonc?
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So that's Zelensky and you. Anyone else?bigjohnowls said:Tory MPs are Putin enablers!!
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win0 -
But they probably won't...MarqueeMark said:Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
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If he loses and there's a leadership election it will be interesting to see where the ideological cleavages end up being.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.0 -
I feel the same way about Starmer, who was tainted by being in Corbyn's cabinet.Cyclefree said:Anyway, if Boris is kicked out his successor should not be a current Cabinet Minister, all of whom are tainted by being in his Cabinet.
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
Although given a choice between Starmer and Johnson as people (disregarding their parties), it would be grey and boring every time...1 -
Tories 2021: "There was no booze"
Tories 2022: "There were no boos"10 -
Your first sentence demonstrates why STV is a lousy voting system.StuartDickson said:
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.Andy_JS said:
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossibleAndy_JS said:
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.StuartDickson said:
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.dixiedean said:
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before.Stocky said:Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Was asked if the PM would win the vote?
He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question.
Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.1 -
BBC —> Jeremy Hunt: "Will be voting for change".1
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