Farooq said:

JBriskin3 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskin3 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gallowgate said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gallowgate said:

JBriskin3 said:

Roger said:

JBriskin3 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

JBriskin3 said:

BannedinnParis said:

May realised she needed a bigger majority to get Brexit through in some form. Stacked the election, for a number of reasons, winning only a pyrrhic victory.

Boris made the exact same calculation, helped by 2 more years of, how do we put this politely, wrangling.

Country really should not be surprised we're in the position we are in.

Good Analysis

WhisperingOracle said:

Red lines, hard brexit, increasingly clear that she was on a course to a minimal deal, I was meaning, really. She certainly wasn't very good at implementing all that she had set the scene for by continually gratifying the ERG, though.

Bad Analysis

The crucial missing word is in the first sentence - May realised she needed a bigger majority to get *Hard* Brexit through in some form. Soft Brexit wouldn't have allowed her to stay on as Tory leader, so, despite being a much more diligent and sometimes honourable prime minister than Boris Johnson, it was much her now forgotten opportunism that led to Boris as anything else.

Hard and Soft Brexit is Remoaner language.

Both May and Boris were merely trying to get out of the EU which proved to be far more difficult than leaving a "democratic" institution should be.

...and Remoaner is the language of a moron.

Well there was > 650 / 2 of them at one point.

Damn right there was lad

Yes well I was referring to Remoaners.

Sorry for not making that clear.

Would rather be a remoaner than a whopper

Blimey - You're still moronic enough to class yourself as a Remoaner?

Do you think Sir Keir will get you back in to the European Union???

We had to put up with Leavers moaning for 40 years... Your point?

No you haven't. UKIP aren't 40 years old. And Farage (the policy entrepenour) has only been prominent for 10 years or so.

You need a history lesson.

In 1983 the Labour Party had a manifesto commitment to leave the European Community and the 1990s was absolutely quiet on the EC/EU matters in Parliament.

Yes someone else has made a similar point.

I withdraw. (see how easy it's done Mr Blackford? #BlackfordBottledIt)

The difference is, once in a blue moon, Blackford gets something right.
Whereas you're just a tit.

Gardenwalker said:

Taz said:

Gardenwalker said:

Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.

I’m not sure. Has there been any analysis of what “badly” means for these locals?

I think the Tories are waiting for a credible successor. Nobody has demonstrated that they can fix the polling / deliver what the backbenchers* are looking for.

*The ERG / fiscal dries / red wallers.

Gardenwalker said:

Taz said:

Gardenwalker said:

Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.

I’m not sure. Has there been any analysis of what “badly” means for these locals?

I think the Tories are waiting for a credible successor. Nobody has demonstrated that they can fix the polling / deliver what the backbenchers* are looking for.

*The ERG / fiscal dries / red wallers.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

MrEd said:

IanB2 said:

MrEd said:

JBriskin3 said:

Carnyx said:

JBriskin3 said:

Carnyx said:

Roger said:

Watching Ch4 News it's easy to imagine him going and quickly. It was something from the Kindergarten. Quite embarrassing for all Tories and all Johnson supporters. He's a lump and a man child. Watching Ruth Davidson crying was quite shocking

JBriskin3 said:

My twitter's hinting that Nadine was drunk for her media stint.

Does Ms/(Mrs?) Davidson have the same excuse?

Lady Davidson, actually, now she doesn't bother to get elected any more. What's she been doing?

I forgot about the Lady thing, ta

Lady Davidson was "greeting" on C4 news.

Oh, why? I missed it. What's she been slicing onions over?

Boris.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1488235127847243780?s=20&t=-jcQ1mKOZVYHOyRcmYljhA

Anyone who cries over the behaviour of a politician is daft. And, no, I am not including @Tissue_Price who has a genuine thing to be upset about

Tbf I think it was triggered by her own similar recollections, earlier in the interview

If that is the case, that explains it. But Johnson is a shit, anyone who deals with anyone of his type knows that. I'd go for drinks with him but I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. If you genuinely put your life's work in the hands of such a person and now upset he's betrayed you, well...

But, yes, your point re grief at relatives dying still holds

On the other hand, my pointing out that she is now Lady D reminds me that she was quite happy to accept a peerage and sit in the Lords as one of his party. It's not as if she has become a cross-bencher.

Lady D sits in the Lords, enjoys Lords fine dining and attendance allowance, use of the library etc and a grand title thanks to Boris. Lady D never has to ask a single voter to vote for her again thanks to Boris

Chris said:

Scott_xP said:

Am told Boris Johnson compared himself to Othello while addressing Conservative MPs tonight. He said he always sees the best in people, unlike Dominic Cummings (who he cast as Iago)
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488249949284409354

Oh that this too too solid flesh would melt.

NEW THREAD

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Redfield and Wilton.

Westminster Voting Intention (31 Jan):

Labour 40% (-1)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 24 Jan

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1488195386800021505

Still Labour lead under 10% then and still only a hung parliament.

Electoral Calculus gives Labour 300, Conservatives 255 and LDs 19 on the new boundaries
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

Starmer now leading Sunak by 1% on best PM as well though, 39% to 38%.

So even Sunak does not lead Starmer as best PM.

Good news for Boris there as well as Starmer

I would be quite interested in hypothetical Mordaunt vs Starmer polling as I don't think we've had that although of course she probably has low name recognition

HYUFD said:

Taz said:

Gardenwalker said:

Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.

Provided the Tories hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster Boris will be fine.

Most of England does not have local elections in May, though London has all councillors up

I wonder what a 'bad' result for the Tories would be regarded as? I think the worst case scenario for the Tories is a reversal of the 2021 result. Something like Lab 36% Con 29% in the NEV.

I don't think there are any councils in England outside London the Tories can lose majority control of directly to Labour apart from Southampton. Labour will be mainly hoping to pick up various councils from NOC like Kirklees, Worthing, Plymouth etc although the Tories could lose a few councils to NOC like Cannock Chase or even Solihull.

Farooq said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

What is your advice to those without inheritance?

Ah-ha, the secret is, it doesn't matter. The children who inherit a lot don't actually SPEND it -- that would be imprudent. No, they just save up so that their own children can inherit even more. The poor don't spend what they don't have. The rich are too prudent to spend what they do have. And slowly, through the most unexpected of routes, HYUFD's communist revolution is achieved without a drop of blood spilled.

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

What is your advice to those without inheritance?

They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

What is your advice to those without inheritance?

They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government

That isn't advice.

Scott_xP said:

"Instead of reinforcing the momentum in his favour, he quite possibly stalled it. If I were him, I would be very worried about the number of his own MPs who asked unhelpful questions at the end of his statement" | ✍️

@WilliamJHague

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-promised-the-bare-minimum-3jp9w6rsw

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

What is your advice to those without inheritance?

They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government

Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.

Have you seen any evidence that HYUFD is anything but 100% consistent(ly wrong).

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

More like, the lucky young will toil away in poverty until they're about 60 waiting for an inheritance, and everybody else will simply toil away in poverty until they drop down dead.

We already live in a country where a large fraction of the populace is so hard-up that finance companies have started to hawk them loans to buy food, where most people's wages have been stagnating for years and now haven't a prayer of keeping up with inflation, and where the middle class is gradually dissolving away in the acid of punishingly high housing costs - again, if they're lucky it's a massive mortgage on a stupidly overpriced house; if they aren't then they're pissing away a great slab of their earnings on rent.

What happens to Margaret Thatcher's homeowning democracy when the average age of those who can afford to buy is now over 30 and owner-occupation as a whole is in sustained decline? The answer, of course, is that it dies. As wealth becomes more and more concentrated in the hands of a progressively narrower asset-owning class, so fewer people will have anything left to conserve and the harder it is going to become for the Conservative Party to hang on to power, no matter how efficiently its remaining vote is distributed. Nor will waving your little Union Jacks and boring everyone to tears with how you made Brexit happen continue to keep your heads above water for the rest of time.

Eventually there will be so many people in this country who are either barely managing or reduced to begging for handouts from food banks that they will finally attain the ability to vote in a socialist administration, simply because they are desperate and completely sick of being poor - and they will exact their vengeance in the form of eyewatering taxes on high incomes, capital gains, and most of all estates. If you make assets the preserve of the minority then sooner or later the majority will work out that they can ease their own poverty by voting to confiscate them.

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

If not, not.

As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw

The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

“England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

What is your advice to those without inheritance?

They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government

Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.

Have you seen any evidence that HYUFD is anything but 100% consistent(ly wrong).

Many people on here are close to 100% wrong. But HYUFD is almost unique I think in the fact that he refuses ever to concede it.

Add that to his autistic repetition of key lines, and his petty-fascist tendencies, and it all adds up to someone I’d pay money to avoid meeting in person.