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The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Farooq said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Roger said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:



    May realised she needed a bigger majority to get Brexit through in some form. Stacked the election, for a number of reasons, winning only a pyrrhic victory.

    Boris made the exact same calculation, helped by 2 more years of, how do we put this politely, wrangling.

    Country really should not be surprised we're in the position we are in.

    Good Analysis



    Red lines, hard brexit, increasingly clear that she was on a course to a minimal deal, I was meaning, really. She certainly wasn't very good at implementing all that she had set the scene for by continually gratifying the ERG, though.

    Bad Analysis
    The crucial missing word is in the first sentence - May realised she needed a bigger majority to get *Hard* Brexit through in some form. Soft Brexit wouldn't have allowed her to stay on as Tory leader, so, despite being a much more diligent and sometimes honourable prime minister than Boris Johnson, it was much her now forgotten opportunism that led to Boris as anything else.
    Hard and Soft Brexit is Remoaner language.

    Both May and Boris were merely trying to get out of the EU which proved to be far more difficult than leaving a "democratic" institution should be.
    ...and Remoaner is the language of a moron.
    Well there was > 650 / 2 of them at one point.
    Damn right there was lad
    Yes well I was referring to Remoaners.

    Sorry for not making that clear.
    Would rather be a remoaner than a whopper
    Blimey - You're still moronic enough to class yourself as a Remoaner?

    Do you think Sir Keir will get you back in to the European Union???
    We had to put up with Leavers moaning for 40 years... Your point?
    No you haven't. UKIP aren't 40 years old. And Farage (the policy entrepenour) has only been prominent for 10 years or so.
    You need a history lesson.

    In 1983 the Labour Party had a manifesto commitment to leave the European Community and the 1990s was absolutely quiet on the EC/EU matters in Parliament.
    Yes someone else has made a similar point.

    I withdraw. (see how easy it's done Mr Blackford? #BlackfordBottledIt)
    The difference is, once in a blue moon, Blackford gets something right.
    Whereas you're just a tit.
    Well I've not been at my best today - didn't get a lot of sleep last night.

    And I've been posting for a while now so I'll take a break

    Laters fellow PBers.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    Unpopular said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Farooq said:

    Nadine Dorries is clearly an idiot, but she didn't seem drunk to me. Not at all. Playing a bad hand badly, and seemingly surly and defensive. But not drunk.

    I didn't have the sound on - but it was quite a drunken sway.

    But back to my point-

    What was Ms Davidson's excuse?
    She is watching Boris destroy her precious union.
    I mean, as a Unionist living in Scotland, he definitely is destroying the Union.
    Go Boris!
    He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    I’m not sure. Has there been any analysis of what “badly” means for these locals?

    I think the Tories are waiting for a credible successor. Nobody has demonstrated that they can fix the polling / deliver what the backbenchers* are looking for.

    *The ERG / fiscal dries / red wallers.
    This year's locals are the one's the PM would have chosen. Might get away with sub-200 losses.
    Lucky old Bozza again.
    And the backbenchers want mutually exclusive things as you allude to. So, no surprise no one has fixed it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Gray’s update, in which she was more than keen to stress this was not her report and just a summary, and Johnson’s response to it, has put him back in the danger zone.

    When he needed to be statesmanlike and contrite, he was angry and combative – even refusing to commit to publishing the full report once the police investigation was concluded (a position Downing Street has already had to U-turn on).

    His attack on Keir Starmer for the failure to prosecute Jimmy Savile (a claim that has been disproven) dismayed even his own MPs – while his questioning of drug use by the Labour frontbench was viewed as simply bizarre. “It was terrible,” says one member of the payroll… behind the scenes, discomfort is building. Johnson’s response to the report has only added to doubts about his future. For all the talk from Johnson of change in how No 10 operates, the part that most worries MPs is that he may not realise that he needs to change, too.

    None of which makes any difference if nearly all his own MPs are too venal and cowardly to give him the boot. We'll end up being stuck with the bugger until 2024 - and if he makes a sufficiently effective job of bribing the aged, even that might not be the end of it.
    On a point of detail, surely Labour will be demanding a parliamentary apology for the saville comment?
    Boris next week, at the despatch box: "Saville? What is the Rt Hon gentleman going on about? I never mentioned Saville - I have no idea who Saville was"
    There will be a row about Saville...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    I’m not sure. Has there been any analysis of what “badly” means for these locals?

    I think the Tories are waiting for a credible successor. Nobody has demonstrated that they can fix the polling / deliver what the backbenchers* are looking for.

    *The ERG / fiscal dries / red wallers.
    I don’t think anyone can deliver what they all want as they all seem to want different things. It’s a coalition that will be hard to hold together.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    IanB2 said:

    MrEd said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Carnyx said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 News it's easy to imagine him going and quickly. It was something from the Kindergarten. Quite embarrassing for all Tories and all Johnson supporters. He's a lump and a man child. Watching Ruth Davidson crying was quite shocking

    JBriskin3 said:

    My twitter's hinting that Nadine was drunk for her media stint.

    Does Ms/(Mrs?) Davidson have the same excuse?

    Lady Davidson, actually, now she doesn't bother to get elected any more. What's she been doing?
    I forgot about the Lady thing, ta

    Lady Davidson was "greeting" on C4 news.
    Oh, why? I missed it. What's she been slicing onions over?
    Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1488235127847243780?s=20&t=-jcQ1mKOZVYHOyRcmYljhA
    Anyone who cries over the behaviour of a politician is daft. And, no, I am not including @Tissue_Price who has a genuine thing to be upset about
    Tbf I think it was triggered by her own similar recollections, earlier in the interview
    If that is the case, that explains it. But Johnson is a shit, anyone who deals with anyone of his type knows that. I'd go for drinks with him but I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. If you genuinely put your life's work in the hands of such a person and now upset he's betrayed you, well...

    But, yes, your point re grief at relatives dying still holds
    On the other hand, my pointing out that she is now Lady D reminds me that she was quite happy to accept a peerage and sit in the Lords as one of his party. It's not as if she has become a cross-bencher.
    Lady D sits in the Lords, enjoys Lords fine dining and attendance allowance, use of the library etc and a grand title thanks to Boris. Lady D never has to ask a single voter to vote for her again thanks to Boris
    Oh, you are considering joining the SNP to follow on from PC, given the SNP view on the HoL? Well, well, it's been quite a day politically.
  • HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    Provided the Tories hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster Boris will be fine.

    Isn't that what Ken Baker said in 1990 ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Am told Boris Johnson compared himself to Othello while addressing Conservative MPs tonight. He said he always sees the best in people, unlike Dominic Cummings (who he cast as Iago)
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488249949284409354

    Oh that this too too solid flesh would melt.
    Maybe worried about an old black ram tupping his white ewe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Taz said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Roger said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:



    May realised she needed a bigger majority to get Brexit through in some form. Stacked the election, for a number of reasons, winning only a pyrrhic victory.

    Boris made the exact same calculation, helped by 2 more years of, how do we put this politely, wrangling.

    Country really should not be surprised we're in the position we are in.

    Good Analysis



    Red lines, hard brexit, increasingly clear that she was on a course to a minimal deal, I was meaning, really. She certainly wasn't very good at implementing all that she had set the scene for by continually gratifying the ERG, though.

    Bad Analysis
    The crucial missing word is in the first sentence - May realised she needed a bigger majority to get *Hard* Brexit through in some form. Soft Brexit wouldn't have allowed her to stay on as Tory leader, so, despite being a much more diligent and sometimes honourable prime minister than Boris Johnson, it was much her now forgotten opportunism that led to Boris as anything else.
    Hard and Soft Brexit is Remoaner language.

    Both May and Boris were merely trying to get out of the EU which proved to be far more difficult than leaving a "democratic" institution should be.
    ...and Remoaner is the language of a moron.
    Well there was > 650 / 2 of them at one point.
    Damn right there was lad
    Yes well I was referring to Remoaners.

    Sorry for not making that clear.
    Would rather be a remoaner than a whopper
    Blimey - You're still moronic enough to class yourself as a Remoaner?

    Do you think Sir Keir will get you back in to the European Union???
    We had to put up with Leavers moaning for 40 years... Your point?
    No you haven't. UKIP aren't 40 years old. And Farage (the policy entrepenour) has only been prominent for 10 years or so.
    You need a history lesson.

    In 1983 the Labour Party had a manifesto commitment to leave the European Community and the 1990s was absolutely quiet on the EC/EU matters in Parliament.
    The policy on the European community was one of the things that drove the split in the party which saw the birth of the SDP.
    Correct, the only main party which has been consistently pro European has been the Liberal Democrats.

    Socialists used to hate the EEC as much as the Tories now hate the EU
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    This thread has been edited.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    I’m not sure. Has there been any analysis of what “badly” means for these locals?

    I think the Tories are waiting for a credible successor. Nobody has demonstrated that they can fix the polling / deliver what the backbenchers* are looking for.

    *The ERG / fiscal dries / red wallers.
    I don’t think anyone can deliver what they all want as they all seem to want different things. It’s a coalition that will be hard to hold together.
    Well, that’s the point.

    There’s no trust or confidence in Boris (see Lord Frost’s tweet this morning) but nobody else can pretend to spin all the plates either.
  • NEW THREAD

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Gray’s update, in which she was more than keen to stress this was not her report and just a summary, and Johnson’s response to it, has put him back in the danger zone.

    When he needed to be statesmanlike and contrite, he was angry and combative – even refusing to commit to publishing the full report once the police investigation was concluded (a position Downing Street has already had to U-turn on).

    His attack on Keir Starmer for the failure to prosecute Jimmy Savile (a claim that has been disproven) dismayed even his own MPs – while his questioning of drug use by the Labour frontbench was viewed as simply bizarre. “It was terrible,” says one member of the payroll… behind the scenes, discomfort is building. Johnson’s response to the report has only added to doubts about his future. For all the talk from Johnson of change in how No 10 operates, the part that most worries MPs is that he may not realise that he needs to change, too.

    None of which makes any difference if nearly all his own MPs are too venal and cowardly to give him the boot. We'll end up being stuck with the bugger until 2024 - and if he makes a sufficiently effective job of bribing the aged, even that might not be the end of it.
    On a point of detail, surely Labour will be demanding a parliamentary apology for the saville comment?
    Boris next week, at the despatch box: "Saville? What is the Rt Hon gentleman going on about? I never mentioned Saville - I have no idea who Saville was"
    There will be a row about Saville...
    I’d be interested to know if anyone ever tried to bring evidence about Saville to the cps. Strongly doubt anything ever got that far.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield and Wilton.

    Westminster Voting Intention (31 Jan):

    Labour 40% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 24 Jan

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1488195386800021505

    Still Labour lead under 10% then and still only a hung parliament.

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 300, Conservatives 255 and LDs 19 on the new boundaries
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    Starmer now leading Sunak by 1% on best PM as well though, 39% to 38%.
    So even Sunak does not lead Starmer as best PM.

    Good news for Boris there as well as Starmer
    I would be quite interested in hypothetical Mordaunt vs Starmer polling as I don't think we've had that although of course she probably has low name recognition
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    Provided the Tories hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster Boris will be fine.

    Most of England does not have local elections in May, though London has all councillors up
    I wonder what a 'bad' result for the Tories would be regarded as? I think the worst case scenario for the Tories is a reversal of the 2021 result. Something like Lab 36% Con 29% in the NEV.

    I don't think there are any councils in England outside London the Tories can lose majority control of directly to Labour apart from Southampton. Labour will be mainly hoping to pick up various councils from NOC like Kirklees, Worthing, Plymouth etc although the Tories could lose a few councils to NOC like Cannock Chase or even Solihull.
    Both of those last have been trending Tory for years, regardless of the National results.

    It's actually possible Labour could fall back further here, although the Greens might make some ground up to compensate.

    Equally if the Liberal Democrats could win North Shropshire, who knows anymore?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Boris’s maximum period of danger is now.
    If there is no VONC in the morning, there won’t be one.

    Unless Dom has another leak up his sleeve, although it feels like all his bullets have been used up and/or taken away by the Met.

    I still think once he gets through this, and he will, the May locals are the real danger for him. Performs badly there and I think he’s doomed.
    Provided the Tories hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster Boris will be fine.

    Isn't that what Ken Baker said in 1990 ?
    Yes and Thatcher faced no challenge after.

    It was worsening polls later in the year and loss of the Eastbourne by election which proved fatal
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited January 2022
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    Ah-ha, the secret is, it doesn't matter. The children who inherit a lot don't actually SPEND it -- that would be imprudent. No, they just save up so that their own children can inherit even more. The poor don't spend what they don't have. The rich are too prudent to spend what they do have. And slowly, through the most unexpected of routes, HYUFD's communist revolution is achieved without a drop of blood spilled.
    I had some maybe new friends over on Saturday. She (a COO) was comparing about a Gen-Zer who was quitting because she only wanted to work 3 days a week.

    I pointed out it was quite rational, given that said Gen-Zer, without family money, was never likely to own her own home or maybe even pay off her student loan.

    Why bother keeping the hamster wheel going?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    MrEd said:

    IanB2 said:

    MrEd said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Carnyx said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 News it's easy to imagine him going and quickly. It was something from the Kindergarten. Quite embarrassing for all Tories and all Johnson supporters. He's a lump and a man child. Watching Ruth Davidson crying was quite shocking

    JBriskin3 said:

    My twitter's hinting that Nadine was drunk for her media stint.

    Does Ms/(Mrs?) Davidson have the same excuse?

    Lady Davidson, actually, now she doesn't bother to get elected any more. What's she been doing?
    I forgot about the Lady thing, ta

    Lady Davidson was "greeting" on C4 news.
    Oh, why? I missed it. What's she been slicing onions over?
    Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1488235127847243780?s=20&t=-jcQ1mKOZVYHOyRcmYljhA
    Anyone who cries over the behaviour of a politician is daft. And, no, I am not including @Tissue_Price who has a genuine thing to be upset about
    Tbf I think it was triggered by her own similar recollections, earlier in the interview
    If that is the case, that explains it. But Johnson is a shit, anyone who deals with anyone of his type knows that. I'd go for drinks with him but I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. If you genuinely put your life's work in the hands of such a person and now upset he's betrayed you, well...

    But, yes, your point re grief at relatives dying still holds
    On the other hand, my pointing out that she is now Lady D reminds me that she was quite happy to accept a peerage and sit in the Lords as one of his party. It's not as if she has become a cross-bencher.
    Lady D sits in the Lords, enjoys Lords fine dining and attendance allowance, use of the library etc and a grand title thanks to Boris. Lady D never has to ask a single voter to vote for her again thanks to Boris
    Oh, you are considering joining the SNP to follow on from PC, given the SNP view on the HoL? Well, well, it's been quite a day politically.
    No, I am a strong supporter of the Lords.

    Just saying Davidson should be grateful to Boris for putting her there
  • HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    So how much have you inherited ?

    I've managed about £2k so far.

    Not that I've ever let possible inheritances affect my financial planning - I leave that to those of a Mandelson/Austen mentality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
    Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

    You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    So how much have you inherited ?

    I've managed about £2k so far.

    Not that I've ever let possible inheritances affect my financial planning - I leave that to those of a Mandelson/Austen mentality.
    More than that but I am a Conservative not a Liberal or a Socialist, I believe in inherited wealth.

    Inheritance tax is still there, just Osborne raised the threshold to £1 million for married couples in one of the best Tory policies of the Cameron years
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
    That isn't advice.
    It is; it can be translated as “go do one”.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    IanB2 said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Gray’s update, in which she was more than keen to stress this was not her report and just a summary, and Johnson’s response to it, has put him back in the danger zone.

    When he needed to be statesmanlike and contrite, he was angry and combative – even refusing to commit to publishing the full report once the police investigation was concluded (a position Downing Street has already had to U-turn on).

    His attack on Keir Starmer for the failure to prosecute Jimmy Savile (a claim that has been disproven) dismayed even his own MPs – while his questioning of drug use by the Labour frontbench was viewed as simply bizarre. “It was terrible,” says one member of the payroll… behind the scenes, discomfort is building. Johnson’s response to the report has only added to doubts about his future. For all the talk from Johnson of change in how No 10 operates, the part that most worries MPs is that he may not realise that he needs to change, too.

    None of which makes any difference if nearly all his own MPs are too venal and cowardly to give him the boot. We'll end up being stuck with the bugger until 2024 - and if he makes a sufficiently effective job of bribing the aged, even that might not be the end of it.
    On a point of detail, surely Labour will be demanding a parliamentary apology for the saville comment?
    Boris next week, at the despatch box: "Saville? What is the Rt Hon gentleman going on about? I never mentioned Saville - I have no idea who Saville was"
    Boris: Clearly I was referring to the Saville Inquiry and the shameful role that his party has played in supporting terrorism in the past.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Scott_xP said:

    "Instead of reinforcing the momentum in his favour, he quite possibly stalled it. If I were him, I would be very worried about the number of his own MPs who asked unhelpful questions at the end of his statement" | ✍️

    @WilliamJHague

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-promised-the-bare-minimum-3jp9w6rsw

    I have just ploughed through the Hansard report, as I could only listen to the PM statement and SKS response this afternoon.

    31 Con questions (about 1/3rd unhelpful, 2/3 supportive, I'd say)

    45 Lab questions

    18 SNP

    5 LD

    5 others

    I think the relative lack of Con MPs asking supportive questions is ominous for Johnson.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    "Instead of reinforcing the momentum in his favour, he quite possibly stalled it. If I were him, I would be very worried about the number of his own MPs who asked unhelpful questions at the end of his statement" | ✍️

    @WilliamJHague

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-has-promised-the-bare-minimum-3jp9w6rsw

    I have just ploughed through the Hansard report, as I could only listen to the PM statement and SKS response this afternoon.

    31 Con questions (about 1/3rd unhelpful, 2/3 supportive, I'd say)

    45 Lab questions

    18 SNP

    5 LD

    5 others

    I think the relative lack of Con MPs asking supportive questions is ominous for Johnson.
    Chapeau though to those 20 odd Tories who were happy to stand up and go full retard in front of their peers.

    I personally wouldn't have the stones.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    They would benefit more from being able to keep more of their money now, rather that paying more in tax now in order to get some of it back later.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
    Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

    You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.
    Have you seen any evidence that HYUFD is anything but 100% consistent(ly wrong).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
    Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

    You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.
    Have you seen any evidence that HYUFD is anything but 100% consistent(ly wrong).
    Many people on here are close to 100% wrong. But HYUFD is almost unique I think in the fact that he refuses ever to concede it.

    Add that to his autistic repetition of key lines, and his petty-fascist tendencies, and it all adds up to someone I’d pay money to avoid meeting in person.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    More like, the lucky young will toil away in poverty until they're about 60 waiting for an inheritance, and everybody else will simply toil away in poverty until they drop down dead.

    We already live in a country where a large fraction of the populace is so hard-up that finance companies have started to hawk them loans to buy food, where most people's wages have been stagnating for years and now haven't a prayer of keeping up with inflation, and where the middle class is gradually dissolving away in the acid of punishingly high housing costs - again, if they're lucky it's a massive mortgage on a stupidly overpriced house; if they aren't then they're pissing away a great slab of their earnings on rent.

    What happens to Margaret Thatcher's homeowning democracy when the average age of those who can afford to buy is now over 30 and owner-occupation as a whole is in sustained decline? The answer, of course, is that it dies. As wealth becomes more and more concentrated in the hands of a progressively narrower asset-owning class, so fewer people will have anything left to conserve and the harder it is going to become for the Conservative Party to hang on to power, no matter how efficiently its remaining vote is distributed. Nor will waving your little Union Jacks and boring everyone to tears with how you made Brexit happen continue to keep your heads above water for the rest of time.

    Eventually there will be so many people in this country who are either barely managing or reduced to begging for handouts from food banks that they will finally attain the ability to vote in a socialist administration, simply because they are desperate and completely sick of being poor - and they will exact their vengeance in the form of eyewatering taxes on high incomes, capital gains, and most of all estates. If you make assets the preserve of the minority then sooner or later the majority will work out that they can ease their own poverty by voting to confiscate them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    More like, the lucky young will toil away in poverty until they're about 60 waiting for an inheritance, and everybody else will simply toil away in poverty until they drop down dead.

    We already live in a country where a large fraction of the populace is so hard-up that finance companies have started to hawk them loans to buy food, where most people's wages have been stagnating for years and now haven't a prayer of keeping up with inflation, and where the middle class is gradually dissolving away in the acid of punishingly high housing costs - again, if they're lucky it's a massive mortgage on a stupidly overpriced house; if they aren't then they're pissing away a great slab of their earnings on rent.

    What happens to Margaret Thatcher's homeowning democracy when the average age of those who can afford to buy is now over 30 and owner-occupation as a whole is in sustained decline? The answer, of course, is that it dies. As wealth becomes more and more concentrated in the hands of a progressively narrower asset-owning class, so fewer people will have anything left to conserve and the harder it is going to become for the Conservative Party to hang on to power, no matter how efficiently its remaining vote is distributed. Nor will waving your little Union Jacks and boring everyone to tears with how you made Brexit happen continue to keep your heads above water for the rest of time.

    Eventually there will be so many people in this country who are either barely managing or reduced to begging for handouts from food banks that they will finally attain the ability to vote in a socialist administration, simply because they are desperate and completely sick of being poor - and they will exact their vengeance in the form of eyewatering taxes on high incomes, capital gains, and most of all estates. If you make assets the preserve of the minority then sooner or later the majority will work out that they can ease their own poverty by voting to confiscate them.
    Rubbish, most people have still bought a property by 39. Often helped by funds from their parents savings for a deposit.

    Less than 5% of the population are unemployed (fewer than the number of unemployed Labour left when last in government in 2010)
  • HYUFD said:

    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old

    I enjoy this site but this has to be one of the most unconsidered comments I've seen and I have been lurking on and off for several years. It has inspired my first post.

    The costs of unfettered capitalist lifestyles on our climate mean that the next generation are going to inherit nothing useful. You are telling yourself lies if you believe differently. The costs of our lifestyles have been deferred. Future generations will not be able to live like we do.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory backbenchers will never achieve anything in their political careers, and yet here is an opportunity to really make an impact.

    By VONCing Boris, you get to uphold standards in public life AND be able to look at your children in the eye.

    If not, not.

    As a decision, indeed it’s easier than the one facing Republicans who at least have the excuse that their voters are also batshit insane. Polling shows that maybe even a majority of Tory voters think Boris lied and needs to go.

    No more Tory voters tonight still think Boris should stay than go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1488232558793945089?s=20&t=Fi3Wi04ksxsUmicRr2k1Tw
    The average Tory voter is now aged about 72 and would happily elect Lucifer if he pledged to tax the absolute shit out of the young to cover the cost of their having their arses wiped when they go gaga. One is moved to quote the famous Orwellian analogy,

    “England... resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts... A family with the wrong members in control - that, perhaps is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”
    The young will inherit more than any generation before them once they reach middle age, thanks to the prudence of the old
    What is your advice to those without inheritance?
    They are a minority and most of them if under 50 vote Labour anyway.

    However for them unemployment is still low and there has been no rise in income tax under this government
    Apart from inflation and the forthcoming national insurance rise.

    You really have no idea. I wonder if you are this callous and obtuse in real life.
    Have you seen any evidence that HYUFD is anything but 100% consistent(ly wrong).
    Many people on here are close to 100% wrong. But HYUFD is almost unique I think in the fact that he refuses ever to concede it.

    Add that to his autistic repetition of key lines, and his petty-fascist tendencies, and it all adds up to someone I’d pay money to avoid meeting in person.
    I feel the same about you, so that equalises nicely
This discussion has been closed.