The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

All detail stripped from Sue Gray's report, but it is still clear in its condemnation: – Behaviour is "difficult to justify"– "failures of leadership"– "Some of the events should not have been allowed"– "The excessive consumption of alcohol is not appropriate"

Read the full story here

eek

Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.

Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.

bondegezou

Second(s ticking away for Johnson)

Razedabode

eek said:

Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.

Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.

12 parties being investigated and the watered down version as damning as it can be..

Hmmm

Leon

They’ve admitted all this and said Sorry

It won’t topple him

ping

I think Sue has done her best with that report. As I said on the previous thread, shes deliberately gutted it in protest.

IshmaelZ

Ceci n'est pas un rapport.

HYUFD

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

TheWhiteRabbit

Wounded but not downed. Personally very frustrated that Boris now looks likely to battle on, causing untold damage to reputation of the party, a probable dreadful result in May, before finally succumbing.

Jonathan

Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.

The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.

nothing criminal.

That is NOT what she says. At all.

I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.

I'm beginning to think the latter?

IshmaelZ

Crunch time for SKS, his reply to Johnson really could make all the difference now

Barnesian

"As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.

Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"

El_Capitano

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Razedabode

..if Tory MPs plough on supporting a man who’s presided over “serious failings” in No.10 and “behaviour” that would be seen in poor light by the public, then on their heads be it.

Deserve all that’s coming to them

Pro_Rata

Summary: it wasn't good.

Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.

Boris: itwasn't me

That really is about all there is.

IanB2

The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.

Slackbladder

ITs clearly very damaging, but I expect not damaging enough.

BJ will limp on for another day.

HYUFD

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

Richard_Nabavi

The paragraph quoted by Mike in the second tweet confirms that there were indeed serious breaches of the rules, which of course is not really news but it is nonetheless significant that it has now been confirmed in a formal investigation. What is more, since there are no less than twelve (out of sixteen) events judged by the Met to meet their threshold for criminal investigation, how on earth can Boris claim, or Tory MPs accept, that he wasn't lying when he said there were no breaches of the rules? What's more, he said that, in parliament, after the first allegations had been made, when he should have properly informed himself even if you accept the indefensible defence that he wasn't already aware of the breaches of the rules.

So we now have a simple test of integrity to apply to Tory MPs. I expect most of them will fail it.

Chris

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Well, I thought this morning he might get away with leaving it at that and no further report being published, but I think that's out of the question now.

SandyRentool

A semi-skimmed report. Showing a bit of leg, but that's all.

We'll have to wait for the full-fat version (after Dick has finished dicking about) to see how big a kicking Bozo actually gets.

Cyclefree

You're going to hate me for this. But to understand the report - even in a redacted form - you need to read the Terms of Reference.

These are here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039751/Terms_of_Reference_-_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_-_December_2021.docx.pdf.

Note the reference in the 3rd paragraph to "adherence to the guidance in place at the time".

The words in bold are critical. Guidance is not law. A breach of guidance does not mean that a breach of the law was committed.

In one sense this is helpful to the PM. In another it very much isn't because (a) he said to Parliament that the guidelines were followed and (b) it looks as if he and his staff could not be bothered to do what they were asking the rest of the country to do.

Anyway am off for a bit. Have fun everyone.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

pronounces the only Clownservative in the village....

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

No shit, Sherlock

moonshine

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

BartholomewRoberts

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

IshmaelZ

Barnesian said:

"As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.

Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"

Clearly intended to make bozza's flesh creep

Pro_Rata

Jonathan said:

Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?

Yes, and the 13th November flat party.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical Ali

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

Although there were an awful lot of parties, presumably when he was down at Chequers. If he was home he's up S*** Street.

Heathener

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Agreed.

I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.

Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.

Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes.

Applicant

Jonathan said:

Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?

Edit: I misread.

I'm surprised, maybe it was the report of Lulu Lytle being present that tipped it over the edge.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

Your clown is lucky (for the moment) that the bad news is being dripped out in stages.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the full picture is bad indeed.

HYUFD

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Nigelb

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Spinning like a top.

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

Of course not. Gray has only been allowed to fire blanks.

The dum-dums come later.

Nigel_Foremain

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

IanB2

Heathener said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Agreed.

I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.

Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.

Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes. High on boozing.

You missed a bit.

Malmesbury

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical Ali

Met not investigating

- 15 May 2020
- 27 November 2020
- 10 December 2020
- 15 December 2020

Which means they are investigating

- 20 May 2020: a gathering in the garden of No 10 Downing Street for No 10 staff;
- 18 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a No 10 private secretary;
- 19 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet room in No 10 Downing Street on the Prime Minister’s birthday;
- 13 November 2020:
- a gathering in the No 10 Downing Street flat;
- a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a special adviser;
- 17 December 2020:
- a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall to hold an online Christmas quiz for the Cabinet Secretary’s private office;
- a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a senior Cabinet Office official.
- a gathering in No 10 DowningStreet on the departure of a No 10 official;
- 18 December 2020: a gathering in No 10 Downing Street ahead of the Christmas break;
- 14 January 2021; a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of two No 10 private secretaries;
- 16 April 2021;
- A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a senior No 10 official;
- A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of another No 10 official.

eek

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

It's the pile of shite that hangs around Boris that many of us expected.

The thing is I want Boris to go because with a decent leader the Tories would have a chance at the next election. With Boris in place they simply don't as the options for attack are so plentiful

Levelling up - not done
No tax increases - nope NI rose 10% (depending on how you judge a percentage increase)

And if that doesn't work
Boris partied while you parents died alone.

Chris

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

If a VONC does happen, the MPs will vote in the awareness that the worst is yet to come.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

IanB2

Remember that the PM stood at the despatch box and told Parliament "all guidelines were followed"

Nigelb

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.

The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.

nothing criminal.

That is NOT what she says. At all.

I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.

I'm beginning to think the latter?

He read it through his blue tinted spectacles.

Jonathan

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

eek

Nigel_Foremain said:

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Anabobazina

@MikeSmithson

Typo in header

G R A Y not Grey

IshmaelZ

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1488161386299547648

Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
Gray Report the equivalent of a horse's head in the Downing St bed - enough to tell you the end point, but not enough to lead to immediate evacuation of the building.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

It doesn't look like the whitewash that his apologists were hoping for either.

IanB2

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical Ali

Mildly amusing Ali?

eek

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

You believe this lot of Tory MPs have a backbone between them?

If you are stupid enough to believe the above I've got a Garden Bridge to sell you.

Malmesbury

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....

Chris

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Then the full report is published.

Richard_Tyndall

Pro_Rata said:

Summary: it wasn't good.

Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.

Boris: itwasn't me

That really is about all there is.

For now. But he still faces the police investigations and then - if they find there is not enough evidence for criminal proceedings - the release of the full report without the redactions.

Endillion

IanB2 said:

The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.

Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.

Razedabode

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

Your clown is lucky (for the moment) that the bad news is being dripped out in stages.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the full picture is bad indeed.

How anyone can step back from the report and think Boris is safe..

There’s 12 events under investigation. Clear failure of leadership. More evidence to come out over the next few months.

There’s no positive in this. The whole thing drags on

Nigelb

Is there a book on how many underlings Boris sacks in an attempt to save his own skin ?

OnlyLivingBoy

I actually think that this report is about as bad as it could be for Johnson given the constraints placed on it by the Met investigations. If Tory MPs had any guts they would move now before he destroys their whole brand, but they won't.

Nigel_Foremain

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.

That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

@tomhfh
This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

The flat investigation is very embarrassing and could be the smoking gun

Chris

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.

Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.

In effect, she's said that if she can't cover the more serious allegations, she's not going to confine herself to the less serious ones. Because that would understate the seriousness of the allegations, and might allow Johnson to pretend the matter was closed.

Jonathan

What's the killer question?

"You asked for us to wait for the report. We now see serious failings are proven. Some in your own flat. You are the Prime Minister, the buck stops with you. Will you go now and save us all the disgrace of a British Prime Minster under criminal investigation? Or do we now have to wait for you to be charged?"

Eabhal

Could she have said:

"The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"

The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.

IshmaelZ

BartholomewRoberts said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

Yeah what about my fucking betting positions? Have these people no consideration for others?

#bozzaoutbyendQ1

Endillion

Malmesbury said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....

There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...

CarlottaVance

Take a step back. The 12 alleged gatherings (of 16) being investigated by the Met include one in Johnson's flat, one he attended in the garden, and one which was to celebrate his birthday.

So the prime minister is under investigation for multiple breaches of his own Covid laws


https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488161561546223618?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ

IshmaelZ

Eabhal said:

Could she have said:

"The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"

The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.

Question is when they start interviewing under caution.

MaxPB

There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

IshmaelZ

So the
@metpolice
are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.

Lethal news.

https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/1488156852122796039

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

Is there a book on how many underlings Boris sacks in an attempt to save his own skin ?

Hopefully loads who will send pictures straight to the press.

Farooq

My official verdict:

The "report" is riddled with cadences so ugly that they were either written by SeanT or they are being used to conceal a hidden message.

For example:
Every citizen has been impacted by the pandemic. Everyone has made personal
sacrifices, some the most profound, having been unable to see loved ones in their
last moments or care for vulnerable family and friends.
It is with that context in mind that I make the following general limited findings.

Do we have any steganography experts, or is it just a turd?

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

Malmesbury

Endillion said:

Malmesbury said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....

There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...

ah - ok

Richard_Tyndall

BartholomewRoberts said:

El_Capitano said:

Starmer must be overjoyed.

Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

Far too early to say that.

If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.

No that should not be the end of the matter. Having committed a criminal offence is far beyond the line which no PM should cross. Lying to Parliament should also be over that line, as should breaking his own Covid guidance. If the Tory party allow this to drag on to the election then they are deservedly lost.

Nigel_Foremain

CarlottaVance said:

Take a step back. The 12 alleged gatherings (of 16) being investigated by the Met include one in Johnson's flat, one he attended in the garden, and one which was to celebrate his birthday.

So the prime minister is under investigation for multiple breaches of his own Covid laws


https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1488161561546223618?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ

It is an absolute fecking disgrace. A few more Tories need to grow some and publicly call on him to resign. A co-ordinated drip drip is needed.

Endillion

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

Just so we're 100% clear, which point? Arrested or jailed?

BartholomewRoberts

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

I don't agree. We're not America.

The only one carrying on for Boris is HYUFD and the second Boris is gone HYUFD will get a firmware update and be an uberloyalist for his successor.

IshmaelZ

Malmesbury said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....

That's 8/12 *dates* some dates are multi event.

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

I think you actually just did. Good grief.

Chris

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

On the whole, I'm surprised you don't think it would be feasible for him to govern the country from a prison cell!

HYUFD

@JustinTrudeau

Officiel du gouvernement - Canada
This morning, I tested positive for COVID-19. I’m feeling fine – and I’ll continue to work remotely this week while following public health guidelines. Everyone, please get vaccinated and get boosted.

stjohn

IshmaelZ said:

So the
@metpolice
are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.

Lethal news.

https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/1488156852122796039

The day Cummings was dismissed!

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

Would receiving and paying a FPN, count as evidence of a 'criminal act' in your view?

IshmaelZ

MaxPB said:

There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.

"the extensive factual information I have been able to gather" is a shot across the police's bows.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

Arrested - this is a FPN offence unless you are alleging misconduct in public office

And you seem incapable of recognising the optics

Time for Boris to resign

Scott_xP

"Was there a party in Downing Street on the 13th November?"

Boris Johnson: "no"

Police are now investigating a party on that date, in his own flat. https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1488164842112491526/video/1

Gary_Burton

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.

That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.

I think Johnson will be OK unless the Tories suffer huge losses in the Midlands and Labour gets a 7%+ lead in the NEV like Miliband in 2012.

I expect the Tories to get hammered in northern mets but there are small nos. Of seats the Torues can actually lose.

I think the Tories will hold their ground seatswise in Scotland like we're seeing in local elections.

London I'm not sure about although I think the Tories losing Barnet and Wandsworth is already expected by pundits so if Johnson holds either or both of those the Tories can spin a relative success in London.

CarlottaVance

Boris Johnson, December 8:

"I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country

This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.com



(And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)

eek

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.

That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.

Yep but none of the analysis is going to be bad enough to remove Boris from No 10. Anyone thinking that May 2022 is going to be seriously bad news for the Tories doesn't understand the May 2018 election.

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

However I also predict Boris will still win that vote

Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

What then?

Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met

What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.

Berlusconi and Sarkozy and Fillon were convicted of criminal offences, only Fillon served time though.

Berlusconi still leads Forza Italia

Chris

Malmesbury said:

Endillion said:

Malmesbury said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."

I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....

There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...

ah - ok

The prime minister's lockdown parties are almost as difficult to enumerate as his offspring.

Andy_JS

A lot of confidence letters will probably be from people who aren't that bothered about PartyGate but are still annoyed about Boris being Brexiteer-in-chief.

Nigelb

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country

This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.com

(And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)

Our PM does not offer a great deal in terms of either truth or reconciliation.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

Our Lord was arrested and jailed, and worse. If even He could come back from that, I am disappointed by your low expectations for the Dear Leader.

Heathener

CarlottaVance said:

Boris Johnson, December 8:

"I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ

It's this kind of thing which ought to unseat the oaf.

It's down to tory MPs. Will they or won't they?

I'm not sure. I think they're daft enough to leave him in place. Suits me. But doesn't suit the country.

Simon_Peach

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point

In 14 or so years of reading PB, I think that is the funniest and most unspoofable comment I have seen.