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The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited February 2022 in General
The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

All detail stripped from Sue Gray's report, but it is still clear in its condemnation: – Behaviour is "difficult to justify"– "failures of leadership"– "Some of the events should not have been allowed"– "The excessive consumption of alcohol is not appropriate"

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.

    Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Second(s ticking away for Johnson)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    eek said:

    Still won't be enough for 54 MPs to actually put their signatures on a letter.

    Nor for 180 MPs to say get lost Boris.

    12 parties being investigated and the watered down version as damning as it can be..

    Hmmm
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,273
    They’ve admitted all this and said Sorry

    It won’t topple him
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited January 2022
    I think Sue has done her best with that report. As I said on the previous thread, shes deliberately gutted it in protest.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Ceci n'est pas un rapport.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Wounded but not downed. Personally very frustrated that Boris now looks likely to battle on, causing untold damage to reputation of the party, a probable dreadful result in May, before finally succumbing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.

    The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.

    nothing criminal.
    That is NOT what she says. At all.

    I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.

    I'm beginning to think the latter?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Crunch time for SKS, his reply to Johnson really could make all the difference now
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    edited January 2022
    "As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.

    Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    ..if Tory MPs plough on supporting a man who’s presided over “serious failings” in No.10 and “behaviour” that would be seen in poor light by the public, then on their heads be it.

    Deserve all that’s coming to them
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Summary: it wasn't good.

    Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.

    Boris: itwasn't me

    That really is about all there is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    ITs clearly very damaging, but I expect not damaging enough.

    BJ will limp on for another day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Well, I thought this morning he might get away with leaving it at that and no further report being published, but I think that's out of the question now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    A semi-skimmed report. Showing a bit of leg, but that's all.

    We'll have to wait for the full-fat version (after Dick has finished dicking about) to see how big a kicking Bozo actually gets.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    You're going to hate me for this. But to understand the report - even in a redacted form - you need to read the Terms of Reference.

    These are here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039751/Terms_of_Reference_-_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_-_December_2021.docx.pdf.

    Note the reference in the 3rd paragraph to "adherence to the guidance in place at the time".

    The words in bold are critical. Guidance is not law. A breach of guidance does not mean that a breach of the law was committed.

    In one sense this is helpful to the PM. In another it very much isn't because (a) he said to Parliament that the guidelines were followed and (b) it looks as if he and his staff could not be bothered to do what they were asking the rest of the country to do.

    Anyway am off for a bit. Have fun everyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    pronounces the only Clownservative in the village....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    No shit, Sherlock
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    El_Capitano said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Far too early to say that.

    If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

    If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

    Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Barnesian said:

    "As a result of the Metropolitan Police’s investigations, and so as not to prejudice the police investigative process, they have told me that it would only be appropriate to make minimal reference to the gatherings on the dates they are investigating.

    Unfortunately, this necessarily means that I am extremely limited in what I can say about those events and it is not possible at present to provide a meaningful report setting out and analysing the extensive factual information I have been able to gather"

    Clearly intended to make bozza's flesh creep
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Jonathan said:

    Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?

    Yes, and the 13th November flat party.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    Although there were an awful lot of parties, presumably when he was down at Chequers. If he was home he's up S*** Street.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    El_Capitano said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Agreed.

    I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.

    Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.

    Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited January 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Did I read that right. Has Boris' birthday bash has met the standard for criminal investigation?

    Edit: I misread.

    I'm surprised, maybe it was the report of Lulu Lytle being present that tipped it over the edge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    Your clown is lucky (for the moment) that the bad news is being dripped out in stages.

    Nevertheless, it is clear that the full picture is bad indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    edited January 2022
    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Spinning like a top.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    Of course not. Gray has only been allowed to fire blanks.

    The dum-dums come later.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

    May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Heathener said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Agreed.

    I don't think the tory MPs will have the courage to do what they need to and remove him.

    Meanwhile we have the NI tax increase on its way.

    Boris Johnson: High on Spending, High on Taxes. High on boozing.
    You missed a bit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical Ali
    Met not investigating

    - 15 May 2020
    - 27 November 2020
    - 10 December 2020
    - 15 December 2020

    Which means they are investigating

    - 20 May 2020: a gathering in the garden of No 10 Downing Street for No 10 staff;
    - 18 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a No 10 private secretary;
    - 19 June 2020: a gathering in the Cabinet room in No 10 Downing Street on the Prime Minister’s birthday;
    - 13 November 2020:
    - a gathering in the No 10 Downing Street flat;
    - a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a special adviser;
    - 17 December 2020:
    - a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall to hold an online Christmas quiz for the Cabinet Secretary’s private office;
    - a gathering in Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall on the departure of a senior Cabinet Office official.
    - a gathering in No 10 DowningStreet on the departure of a No 10 official;
    - 18 December 2020: a gathering in No 10 Downing Street ahead of the Christmas break;
    - 14 January 2021; a gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of two No 10 private secretaries;
    - 16 April 2021;
    - A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of a senior No 10 official;
    - A gathering in No 10 Downing Street on the departure of another No 10 official.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    If a VONC does happen, the MPs will vote in the awareness that the worst is yet to come.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Remember that the PM stood at the despatch box and told Parliament "all guidelines were followed"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Gray – as I predicted – tells us exactly what we already knew.

    The report 'update' is quite damning in its own narrow way, but its findings will surprise precisely nobody.

    nothing criminal.
    That is NOT what she says. At all.

    I don't know if you are incapable of reading and assimilating something properly or whether you're just trolling us.

    I'm beginning to think the latter?
    He read it through his blue tinted spectacles.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

    May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

    Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,656
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    @MikeSmithson

    Typo in header

    G R A Y not Grey
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1488161386299547648

    Glen O'Hara
    @gsoh31
    Gray Report the equivalent of a horse's head in the Downing St bed - enough to tell you the end point, but not enough to lead to immediate evacuation of the building.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    It doesn't look like the whitewash that his apologists were hoping for either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Welcome back the slightly more cautious version of Comical Ali
    Mildly amusing Ali?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    You believe this lot of Tory MPs have a backbone between them?

    If you are stupid enough to believe the above I've got a Garden Bridge to sell you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
    I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Then the full report is published.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,520
    Pro_Rata said:

    Summary: it wasn't good.

    Full version: It wasn't good. There were failures.

    Boris: itwasn't me

    That really is about all there is.

    For now. But he still faces the police investigations and then - if they find there is not enough evidence for criminal proceedings - the release of the full report without the redactions.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.

    Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    Your clown is lucky (for the moment) that the bad news is being dripped out in stages.

    Nevertheless, it is clear that the full picture is bad indeed.
    How anyone can step back from the report and think Boris is safe..

    There’s 12 events under investigation. Clear failure of leadership. More evidence to come out over the next few months.

    There’s no positive in this. The whole thing drags on
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Is there a book on how many underlings Boris sacks in an attempt to save his own skin ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    I actually think that this report is about as bad as it could be for Johnson given the constraints placed on it by the Met investigations. If Tory MPs had any guts they would move now before he destroys their whole brand, but they won't.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    eek said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

    May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

    Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.
    That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    HYUFD said:

    @tomhfh
    This isn’t the smoking gun those who wanted to remove Boris were hoping for.

    The flat investigation is very embarrassing and could be the smoking gun
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    The key is her comment that discussing the circumstances of the four non-criminal events would detract from her overall findings - in other words, the fifteen that she hasn't been able to cover are significantly more serious.

    Well, obviously. The four are those the Met told her are definitely not criminal. The others are the ones that still might be.
    In effect, she's said that if she can't cover the more serious allegations, she's not going to confine herself to the less serious ones. Because that would understate the seriousness of the allegations, and might allow Johnson to pretend the matter was closed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited January 2022
    What's the killer question?

    "You asked for us to wait for the report. We now see serious failings are proven. Some in your own flat. You are the Prime Minister, the buck stops with you. Will you go now and save us all the disgrace of a British Prime Minster under criminal investigation? Or do we now have to wait for you to be charged?"
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Could she have said:

    "The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"

    The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Far too early to say that.

    If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

    If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

    Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
    Yeah what about my fucking betting positions? Have these people no consideration for others?

    #bozzaoutbyendQ1
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Malmesbury said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
    I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....
    There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    Could she have said:

    "The full, factual account of all sixteen gatherings will be released on the 1st March or at the conclusion of the police investigation, whichever comes sooner"

    The Met will take roughly a month per party I reckon.

    Question is when they start interviewing under caution.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

    Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    So the
    @metpolice
    are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.

    Lethal news.

    https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/1488156852122796039
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Nigelb said:

    Is there a book on how many underlings Boris sacks in an attempt to save his own skin ?

    Hopefully loads who will send pictures straight to the press.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

    Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
    What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

    If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    Endillion said:

    Malmesbury said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
    I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....
    There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...
    ah - ok
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,520
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Starmer must be overjoyed.

    Not enough to topple Johnson before the next election. But enough to leave the stench of criminality around him for good.

    Far too early to say that.

    If the Met determine the PM broke the law (considering the flat is one investigated by them) then surely that is the end of Boris.

    If the Met determine the law wasn't broken, then that should be the end of the matter too.

    Either way, I don't see how this can drag on until the election.
    No that should not be the end of the matter. Having committed a criminal offence is far beyond the line which no PM should cross. Lying to Parliament should also be over that line, as should breaking his own Covid guidance. If the Tory party allow this to drag on to the election then they are deservedly lost.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

    If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point
    Just so we're 100% clear, which point? Arrested or jailed?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    I don't agree. We're not America.

    The only one carrying on for Boris is HYUFD and the second Boris is gone HYUFD will get a firmware update and be an uberloyalist for his successor.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Malmesbury said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
    I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....
    That's 8/12 *dates* some dates are multi event.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    @JustinTrudeau

    Officiel du gouvernement - Canada
    This morning, I tested positive for COVID-19. I’m feeling fine – and I’ll continue to work remotely this week while following public health guidelines. Everyone, please get vaccinated and get boosted.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    IshmaelZ said:

    So the
    @metpolice
    are investigating a gathering in the Prime Minister's flat on 13 November.

    Lethal news.

    https://twitter.com/robinkellett/status/1488156852122796039

    The day Cummings was dismissed!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,656
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

    Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
    Would receiving and paying a FPN, count as evidence of a 'criminal act' in your view?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    There's obviously a lot worse to come that Gray has held back until the police investigation is over but the issue is that the Met will suspiciously take no further action meaning her conclusions will be dismissed as non-criminal. Boris has scraped through IMO and the Tories are going to get battered in May and in 2024. Deservedly.

    "the extensive factual information I have been able to gather" is a shot across the police's bows.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

    Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
    Arrested - this is a FPN offence unless you are alleging misconduct in public office

    And you seem incapable of recognising the optics

    Time for Boris to resign
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    "Was there a party in Downing Street on the 13th November?"

    Boris Johnson: "no"

    Police are now investigating a party on that date, in his own flat. https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1488164842112491526/video/1
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    eek said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

    May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

    Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.
    That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.
    I think Johnson will be OK unless the Tories suffer huge losses in the Midlands and Labour gets a 7%+ lead in the NEV like Miliband in 2012.

    I expect the Tories to get hammered in northern mets but there are small nos. Of seats the Torues can actually lose.

    I think the Tories will hold their ground seatswise in Scotland like we're seeing in local elections.

    London I'm not sure about although I think the Tories losing Barnet and Wandsworth is already expected by pundits so if Johnson holds either or both of those the Tories can spin a relative success in London.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Boris Johnson, December 8:

    "I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    eek said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I think he will limp on until May, but be gone by June. My hair shirt promise is looking safe from my perspective.

    May is a much better time for a leaving party for him after all.

    Why? May 2018 was peak Corbyn - there are surprisingly few seats for the Tories to lose.
    That maybe will be how they chose to spin it. It will be overall vote share that will be important. Also analysis of areas that have marginals. There is a lot of analysis that can be done.
    Yep but none of the analysis is going to be bad enough to remove Boris from No 10. Anyone thinking that May 2022 is going to be seriously bad news for the Tories doesn't understand the May 2018 election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    My MP finally replied to me earlier today.

    Not going to excuse it. Clearly wrong. Big step to remove an elected PM. I will reflect carefully etc…

    And they are someone who you could modestly describe as being a long standing critic of BJ and his policy platform.

    On which basis I am working on the assumption that no VONC will be happening, unless it’s one triggered by BoJo acolytes that they have already calculated he would win.

    I am still betting a VONC will happen. The majority of the 77 MPs who voted for Hunt in the final round of the Tory leadership election in 2019 and are still in the Commons will now submit letters, taking the number over the 54 required.

    However I also predict Boris will still win that vote
    Here's a thought... VONC threshold reached in the next few days, Johnson wins say 60% of the Tory MP votes and so cannot be challenged again for another 12 months...

    In a few weeks the Met find evidence of criminal events and issue FPNs.

    What then?
    Boris is still safe unless he personally is found to have committed a criminal act.

    Otherwise Boris would just sack the staff found to have committed criminal acts and they would be arrested by the Met
    What? The PM safe in office unless he broke the law. Good grief. How low we have fallen.
    Berlusconi and Sarkozy and Fillon were convicted of criminal offences, only Fillon served time though.

    Berlusconi still leads Forza Italia
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Malmesbury said:

    Endillion said:

    Malmesbury said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nothing unexpected in the Gray report, yes standards could have been higher, yes there needs to be a clearer separation between use of No 10's garden for its residents and for staff outside working hours and yes there needs to be better management of No 10 staff.

    However beyond that nothing criminal identified in the report and as far as I can see nothing that would be fatal to Boris.

    There may be a VONC now this week, I still think Boris will narrowly survive it

    Prima facie evidence of criminality on 12 separate occasions, not "nothing criminal identified."
    I make it 8/12 are being investigated, with 4 ruled out of the investigations....
    There's 16 events total - I think you are only counting the first level of bullets. Seems there are some dates on which there were multiple events...
    ah - ok
    The prime minister's lockdown parties are almost as difficult to enumerate as his offspring.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    A lot of confidence letters will probably be from people who aren't that bothered about PartyGate but are still annoyed about Boris being Brexiteer-in-chief.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country
    This is a particularly remarkable moment in the life of politicalbetting.com

    (And, no, even saying you're not making a 'direct' comparison doesn't help)
    Our PM does not offer a great deal in terms of either truth or reconciliation.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris is charged, convicted, sentenced and sent down. Boris, his supporters and possibly HYUFD will say he can carry on. There is no place where they will draw a line. Someone else has to draw that line.

    Nelson Mandela was jailed and came back to lead his country but obviously I am not making that direct comparison.

    If Boris was arrested and jailed he would have to cease being Tory leader and PM at that point
    Our Lord was arrested and jailed, and worse. If even He could come back from that, I am disappointed by your low expectations for the Dear Leader.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    CarlottaVance said:

    Boris Johnson, December 8:

    "I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to establish all the facts.."

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488161556986802177?s=20&t=uzOvEed9uMo1Nqn3UwamvQ

    It's this kind of thing which ought to unseat the oaf.

    It's down to tory MPs. Will they or won't they?

    I'm not sure. I think they're daft enough to leave him in place. Suits me. But doesn't suit the country.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,656
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    I actually think that this report is about as bad as it could be for Johnson given the constraints placed on it by the Met investigations. If Tory MPs had any guts they would move now before he destroys their whole brand, but they won't.

    I'm guessing at least 5 or 6 per party, so that's a squillion or so.
This discussion has been closed.