politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the
Comments
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7/2 seems just about a bet to me.. was tempted before today, but I think Carswells move makes all UKIP related markets more likely, by 2-3%taffys said:"yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"
Do you honestly think Rotherham will fall to UKIP, Mr Speedy? I'm not so sure.0 -
Further defections would be very damaging to the Tories - there's no point in arguing otherwise.0
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HmmJohnO said:
Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.Alanbrooke said:
No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?JohnO said:
Are there moreisllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Ca Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on y he'll never get a majority in his own right.
this seems to be the stock answer from Tories that everyone is hard right. Most of the " who should I vote for surveys " say I should vote LD which I have in the past.
Really it's the boneheaded stupidity of the current Tories which is the strangest thing.
You have no plan to manage a broad spectrum of voters, you can't engage with large sectors of the electorate and your only hope is the continued denial that you have a problem , so it's the electorate that is wrong.
Your 38% prayer is simply raising the white flag and shows no ambition to form a government. Incredible.0 -
Can you name a Labour government that left the economy in a better situation than when they started?BenM said:
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.dyedwoolie said:
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.BenM said:
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.0 -
It looks as if the Ukraine will explode across Europe shortly, and knock everything else off the front pages.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
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Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.0 -
And, assuming these whispers are correct, when?Speedy said:
This weekend? Conferences? Closer to the election?
*takes another handful of popcorn*0 -
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.0 -
Richard N
"If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it."
Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.0 -
Mensch has no credibility at all. She used her position in the Tory party to help Murdoch and then her position in the Murdoch press to help the Tories. She's very the embodiment of the revolving door political-media establishment that needs to be torn apart.Hugh said:
Haaahahaha. The little Murdoch lickspittle really isn't the sharpest tool in the box is she.isam said:This is brilliant.. Louise Mensch's hypocrisy is staggering!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/08/douglas-carswell-popular-with-the-tories-labour-and-now-ukip/0 -
Home counties Tory MPs are probably the least likely to defect, excluding coastal areas.Speedy said:0 -
The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
Judging by their merry posts on here today, many labour posters think Rotherham has not changed the old politics, and they are on the way to a stonking majority.
''Lessons learned all round"0 -
Time to hot foot it to Folkestone:
http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/live/2014/aug/28/folkestone-gold-hunt-as-art-the-search-for-10000-bullion-live0 -
Who knows?Hugh said:
And, assuming these whispers are correct, when?Speedy said:
This weekend? Conferences? Closer to the election?
*takes another handful of popcorn*
It could be drip drip drip until election day.
It could be even tonight.
But logically they would do it on the conference platform, imagine a Tory MP making his speech in the Tory conference and announcing to the crowd of party members, MP's and journalists that he is defecting to UKIP.0 -
I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.0 -
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
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I've just been looking down the comments in The Times, and it seems about 30/30/40 Who?/Yeah!!!/Idiot0
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''Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same. ''
Margaret Thatcher is the only one who affected me. Massively for the positive.
Otherwise, I agree.0 -
Indeed. At the end of the day, even a really bad government rarely impacts on people so disastrously as to cause genuine trouble, especially as a lot of aspects of government seem like changing electricity supplier, where the only definite difference is the name at the top of the bill, with the changes coming in highly specific areas which won't affect everyone.Roger said:Richard N
"If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it."
Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.0 -
Sums up whole swathes of the political class.MarkHopkins said:fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
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Of course they do.anotherDave said:
I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.
If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)
"The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.
This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
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Aargh I have a metal detector (with which I have found other metals but no gold so far) but I'm no where near Folkestone.BenM said:Time to hot foot it to Folkestone:
http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/live/2014/aug/28/folkestone-gold-hunt-as-art-the-search-for-10000-bullion-live
I can give you tips though, since the man who buried it is an artist and the whole purpose is for people to dig the beach in order to create some artform, then the gold might be scattered in a pattern.0 -
TBH I'm not sure you'll find many Mensch backers on here under whatever colours.Socrates said:
Mensch has no credibility at all. She used her position in the Tory party to help Murdoch and then her position in the Murdoch press to help the Tories. She's very the embodiment of the revolving door political-media establishment that needs to be torn apart.Hugh said:
Haaahahaha. The little Murdoch lickspittle really isn't the sharpest tool in the box is she.isam said:This is brilliant.. Louise Mensch's hypocrisy is staggering!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/08/douglas-carswell-popular-with-the-tories-labour-and-now-ukip/0 -
Breitbart is reporting a number of Clacton councillors are set to follow Carswell to UKIP.
They plan to turn it into a power base, it seems.0 -
Was you on the Cote D'Azur through most of the 70's?Roger said:
I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.
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I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.MarkHopkins said:
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
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What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
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Alanbrooke said:JohnO said:Alanbrooke said:JohnO said:Alanbrooke said:JohnO said:HurstLlama said:
Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.Alanbrooke said:
HmmRichard_Nabavi said:
Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.Alanbrooke said:e population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?
this seems to be the stock answer from Tories that everyone is hard right. Most of the " who should I vote for surveys " say I should vote LD which I have in the past.
Really it's the boneheaded stupidity of the current Tories which is the strangest thing.
You have no plan to manage a broad spectrum of voters, you can't engage with large sectors of the electorate and your only hope is the continued denial that you have a problem , so it's the electorate that is wrong.
Your 38% prayer is simply raising the white flag and shows no ambition to form a government. Incredible.
I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.0 -
Carswell had a part in creating PCC's through the “Direct Democracy Agenda”. Certain irony there.kle4 said:
I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.MarkHopkins said:
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.0 -
@Alanbrooke
Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.
I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.0 -
Ironically, the Tories best hope now is for a proper UKIP breakthrough that can damage Labour in the North and Midlands too. UKIP to hold balance of power and prop Cameron/Tories up in return for referendum etc etc.
Some sort of unofficially united message re Stafford, Rotherham, the economy.
Labour, can't be trusted with your money, your health, your life or the safety of your children.0 -
I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate?
The story is moving on.
Bernados are apparently set to announce that Rotherham is the 'tip of the iceberg' (from twitter).0 -
Are you sure Mr. Taffys? Wilson and Callaghan administrations did enormous damage to the wealth of the UK, that didn't affect you? You haven't been affected by deepest recession in modern times? Really? That is just to think about economic matters, what about the social revolution that kicked off in the sixties? Not affected? The explosion in the UK population caused by massive immigration in the past decade or so, has that not affected you? The change in education standards since the sixties has that not effected you? I could go on but the only way I can think that you have not been affected by various administrations is that you are either fabulously wealthy or are actually a brain in a jar that has no need to interact with the outside world.taffys said:''Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same. ''
Margaret Thatcher is the only one who affected me. Massively for the positive.
Otherwise, I agree.0 -
Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.0 -
Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679
I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?0 -
As opposed to the Brussels lap-dog Cameron?MarqueeMark said:Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
Muppet.
I suspect the muppets are those who believe anything Cameron says about changing our relationship with the EU.0 -
We do indeed need a revolution. Desperately. I, for one, will happily sacrifice the Tory party to the dustbin of history if the disgusting left are swept away with them.SeanT said:Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.
Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.
However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.
Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.
We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.
So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.0 -
The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.kle4 said:
I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.MarkHopkins said:
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
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Mr. kle4, well, quite. The EU's very good at backstairs shady manoeuvring to overturn and ignore the will of free people and gerrymander its way to a little bureaucratic empire, but when it comes to hard power you might as well call on the Liechtenstein army.0
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Carswell at his finest.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg0 -
Perhaps both realised that their party leader was only paying lip service to the causes and principles they deeply believed in and they were no longer willing to serve a hypocrite.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.0 -
Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.0 -
Soft on kiddy fiddling, soft on the causes of kiddy fiddling0
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Well John in your last post you told me I was hard right. Perhaps you should read what you write ;-).JohnO said:@Alanbrooke
Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.
I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.
As for turnips well it is rather the PB vegetable of choice.0 -
People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.0 -
Extraordinary. An honest politician.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
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RED ED, RED ED, RED EDSeanT said:Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.
Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.
However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.
Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.
We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.
So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.
No it doesn't scare me either.0 -
0
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More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?SeanT said:Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.
@TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP
As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"
As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.0 -
I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.kle4 said:Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679
I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?0 -
And that is the real question of this week's politics: how do we move forward on this? Even if we have zero immigration from those countries or into those communities moving forwards, we have been left with a generation or two whose morals and mindsets are directly antithetical to ours.anotherDave said:
The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.kle4 said:
I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.MarkHopkins said:
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
The same can be said for the evil idiots / deluded fools who go to fight for IS in Syria and Iraq.
How do we fix it? How do these people and, to a lesser extent the communities they live in, learn that these crimes are incompatible with life in the UK?
I'm at a loss.0 -
Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.
But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.
0 -
Imagine if the expenses saga came out now......SeanT said:Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.
@TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP
As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"
As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.
What will be the spark that lights the blue touch paper?0 -
It should still have worked, but deep down they must know better than we how the EU has no teeth in this fight.Socrates said:
I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.kle4 said:Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679
I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?0 -
People of sense want to be able to fight successfully for those principles. A very good way of doing that, if you are concerned about civil liberties for example, would be to become Home Secretary - the best possible position in the entire country to achieve something effective in line with your principles. Of course that opportunity is open only to a tiny number of people. One of those rare people was David Davis, who deliberately threw the opportunity away, for no reason that anyone could discern. 'Bonkers' hardly begins to cover it, principles or no principles.Speedy said:People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.
0 -
Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.0 -
Both are linked, Carswell would not have been able to do it if the word racism was meaningfull, UKIP were prone to accusations like that, after Rotherham it's not.anotherDave said:
The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.kle4 said:
I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.MarkHopkins said:
1,400 children were raped and abused.fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.
They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.
Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.
And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.
"Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.
As I said last night the Rotherham sex scandal has shifted the middle of the road to the right, things that were considered unacceptable before that are now talked about by ordinary people.
UKIP is no longer an extreme party in the likes of the events that have shifted public perception.0 -
Quite a rare thing, this - a Tory defecting and fighting a by-election. Last example I can find was the Isle of Wight in 1904...0
-
Mr. Brooke, I don't think it's wise for the Conservatives to campaign "Don't vote UKIP or Miliband will win". However, I do think a Miliband premiership could be very bad indeed. Cf Hollande.
The joy of a protest vote for a party with no hope of power is that you get to feel all principled, whilst a mediocre PM may be replaced by a disastrous one.0 -
The alleged figure of 250 would be about 15% of the men aged 18-50 from that community.SeanT said:Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.
@TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP
As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"
As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6508106&c=rotherham&d=27&e=61&g=6354996&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1409231996442&enc=1&dsFamilyId=2575
2011 census: 6,521 Pakistanis in the Rotherham constituency. Men aged 18-50 would be about a quarter of that, so roughly 1,600. 250/1600 = c.15%.0 -
The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham, is that the flames of anger, revulsion and revolution end up spiralling out of control. And it won't be the Rotherham rapists who cop it, sadly,
We have been let down and betrayed. What a sad state of affairs.0 -
Plod's too busy chasing Cliff Richard in 1985.Alanbrooke said:
More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?SeanT said:Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.
@TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP
As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"
As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.0 -
Time to change the electoral system, then.GIN1138 said:
Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.
But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.
0 -
But what use is an honest politician who has no power - and no prospect of power?MonikerDiCanio said:
Extraordinary. An honest politician.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
0 -
I don't think they will lose those seat's. In 2010 we saw how Labour voters held their nose and turned out for Gordon Brown. All the many posts on here (including some from me) talking about Labour meltdowns, etc... Came to nothing whatsoever.AndyJS said:
Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.
If 2010 proved anything it is that Labour voters turn out what it counts.
Today is a gift for Labour and a disaster for the Right in general.
0 -
If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.CarlottaVance said:Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
0 -
Convicted of dangerous driving after colliding with a PC on traffic duty.volcanopete said:
Labour's candidate.Tim Young,locally educated, Labour group leader for Colchester.
http://www.harwichandmanningtreestandard.co.uk/news/eveninggazettenews/10848505.Tim_Young_selected_as_Labour_candidate_for_Clacton/
The Tories are left with a real selection headache.If they go down the route of South Thanet and field an identikit Ukip candidate to Carswell they lose the progressive vote.If they field a soft Cameroon,their right flank is similarly exposed.This is effectively a choice of political suicide.I think it reasonable to think the Tories are going to get squeezed either way and therefore predict the Tories will not win this bye-election.
The big question is whether this switch from Tory to Ukip turns from a trickle into a flood.Where's the betting on who will the next Tory MP to defect to Ukip?0 -
European nations have been led by self-interested careerists for decades. They've reduced their defence budgets year on year, hoping the US will pick up the cheque for their defence. Suddenly they can't do anything about outright imperialism on their borders.kle4 said:
It should still have worked, but deep down they must know better than we how the EU has no teeth in this fight.Socrates said:
I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.kle4 said:Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679
I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?
Sometimes I wish there was a hell so men like Putin could rot in it.0 -
It's an oddity Mr D.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, I don't think it's wise for the Conservatives to campaign "Don't vote UKIP or Miliband will win". However, I do think a Miliband premiership could be very bad indeed. Cf Hollande.
The joy of a protest vote for a party with no hope of power is that you get to feel all principled, whilst a mediocre PM may be replaced by a disastrous one.
The conservatives seem to be taking the G Brown mantra of scare the voters as their leitmotif for 2015. It won't work.0 -
Maybe but we saw in Newark that the Labour vote actually went down compared to their 2010 disaster.GIN1138 said:
I don't think they will lose those seat's. In 2010 we saw how Labour voters held their nose and turned out for Gordon Brown. All the many posts on here (including some from me) talking about Labour meltdowns, etc... Came to nothing whatsoever.AndyJS said:
Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.
If 2010 proved anything it is that Labour voters turn out what it counts.
Today is a gift for Labour and a disaster for the Right in general.0 -
Then why David Davies was not allowed to become Home Secretary if he is the right man for the job as you say?Richard_Nabavi said:
People of sense want to be able to fight successfully for those principles. A very good way of doing that, if you are concerned about civil liberties for example, would be to become Home Secretary - the best possible position in the entire country to achieve something effective in line with your principles. Of course that opportunity is open only to a tiny number of people. One of those rare people was David Davis, who deliberately threw the opportunity away. 'Bonkers' hardly begins to cover it, principles or no principles.Speedy said:People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.
"No fight no right" is crystal clear while talk of sense and sensibility is not a value, its just hot air.
Why take the Shaun Wright road of "lessons have being learned" when you can do the right thing.0 -
We have been let down and betrayed. What a sad state of affairs.
When you consider what has happened, the self control of the British people is absolutely extraordinary.
Not one incident.0 -
Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.0
-
The union was bought and paid for by bribery and corruption. It was never the settled will of anyone.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.CarlottaVance said:Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
0 -
@SeanT
Emma, who was a virgin at the time, recalled: “I told him I was cold so he put his arms around me and said he’d warm me up.
"He then dragged me round the corner and was on top of me taking my clothes off. There was another man too holding my arms behind my head.
"Then all these other men came out of nowhere. Two were holding my friend, forcing her eyes open and making her watch.
People need to rot in jail for this.0 -
The pig faced landowner. Classic BrowniteMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.
0 -
That is not what you should be asking. The question is what use is a powerful politician with no honesty or principles?MarqueeMark said:
But what use is an honest politician who has no power - and no prospect of power?MonikerDiCanio said:
Extraordinary. An honest politician.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
Actually maybe you don't need to ask that. We see the consequences of that in Parliament every day.0 -
As a pro-European Clarkite in the Blue team, if all the headbangers on Europe would either now like to move to UKIP or just shut up and wait for the referendum that would be fine with me.
We need the orange bookers to come in to the blue tent in their place as far as I'm concerned.
Joe Public don't really bother re Europe and yet so many Tory people think that is all that matters... it' s made me vote liberal before and could do again, it also means I'll never vote UKIP of course.
Mind you here in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Bercow, I haven't a choice anyway.0 -
I didn't say he was the right man for the job. Clearly he wasn't, in retrospect. However, the reason he didn't become Home Scretary was that he resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. It was entirely his choice.Speedy said:Then why David Davies was not allowed to become Home Secretary if he is the right man for the job as you say?.
0 -
Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Of course they do.anotherDave said:
I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.GIN1138 said:Popcorn time for Lab.
Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.
If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)
"The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.
This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support0 -
If Labour get's in with a majority on say 33% (looks increasingly likey with UKIP's antics) I think FPTP will be unsustainable even for the Tories.RodCrosby said:
Time to change the electoral system, then.GIN1138 said:
Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.Socrates said:
What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.anotherDave said:Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.
But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.
As you know, I was very open to voting for AV, but in the end didn't think YES sold the case properly that time. But I'm most certainly open to be persuaded...0 -
The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.CarlottaVance said:Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
0 -
We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.SeanT said:Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.
Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.
However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.
Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.
We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.
So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.
0 -
I didn't realise there were many of you left in the Blue team. Excellent -always good to have a wide range within a party.Scrapheap_as_was said:As a pro-European Clarkite in the Blue team,
0 -
I think the chances of scotland voting YES because Douglas Carswell has gone to UKIP are fairly close to absolute zero.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.CarlottaVance said:Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
The only thing that will do is knock out one the SNP's prime weapons of "the Tories are going to win the next election, so vote YES".0 -
You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.dyedwoolie said:The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...
The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.
Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.
http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherhamThere have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.0 -
Worth remembering what happened when Brown tried to split the Tories by briefing that he was going to go for that early Autumn GE, and how that trip to Iraq during the Tory Conference backfired. Also, where does Farage, UKIP and Carswell go in the run up to the next GE if their stunt totally backfires and enough voters in this constituency turn out to say No Thanks to a UKIP MP?CarlottaVance said:
Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.0 -
I suspect trhe Scottish ones won't be, and only Scots can vote.CarlottaVance said:
The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.CarlottaVance said:Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,
The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.fitalass said:Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.
Speedy said:
Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?fitalass said:Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
I'd have thought keeping Cameron low-key would be a help rather than a hindrance.0 -
Mr. Woolie, shade unfair on pigs. They're wonderful animals! Bacon, gammon, pork, ham, all from one splendid beast.0
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It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.Sean_F said:
We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.SeanT said:Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.
Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.
However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.
Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.
We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.
So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.
Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?0 -
The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham, is that the flames of anger, revulsion and revolution end up spiralling out of control
Lol0 -
But according to the report, the £115,000-a-year director of children's services told a meeting that 'agencies need to retain a sense of proportionality' because those offences 'only account for 2.3 per cent of the council's safe-guarding work'.
Mrs Thacker is the same director who removed three children from their foster parents because they voted Ukip.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736136/We-won-t-blame-1-400-young-girls-abused-rapists-loose-officials-charge-Rotherham-abuse-scandal-continue-pass-buck.html0 -
An...interesting take on things from the Daily Mash,
The Tory MP who defected to UKIP has asked when he gets his free golliwog.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/can-i-have-my-free-golliwog-now-asks-carswell-2014082889983
I quite like the Daily Mash, not lease because sometimes it seems to actually try some humour from the right, as well as the standard left, but they sure don't seem to like UKIP much.0 -
But only briefly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.
Plus Ukip where not polling in the teens though and Bob Spink today would probably win Castle Point if he ran with UKIP, heck UKIP might win Castle Point without Bob Spink.0 -
Miss Fitalass, I suspect Carswell will win, and that will be a big boost to UKIP.
But if he doesn't, it could be a deathblow to their hopes for 2015.0 -
The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.BenM said:
You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.dyedwoolie said:The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...
The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.
Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.
http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherhamThere have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
So they can turn up mob handed to Cliff Richard but can't pick up anyone on their doorstep ?
Maybe they're not using their resources correctly.0 -
There was a big recession under Harold Wilson, in 1974-5.BenM said:
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.dyedwoolie said:
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.BenM said:
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.
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Here's one of them on the streets... He's been let out after 3 1/2 yearsAlanbrooke said:
More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?SeanT said:Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.
@TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP
As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"
As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.
He'd be better off inside I would think, now his picture is in the papers
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736183/This-insult-14-000-victims-one-five-men-jailed-sex-abuse-free-police-told-hundreds-gang-members.html0
