O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.
"Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind."
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
UKIP beat the Conservatives in the EU Parliament election.
I saw someone make a comment that Carswell was a maverick.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
How times change.
I also remember being a big fan of Cameron when I first posted here on PB in 2009 (IIRC), now I think he's just an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boy
The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
Hopefully Lynton Crosby will remind voters that the Tories are still what they've always been otherwise I see this as a black day for Ed
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
No, the reality hasn't changed. Of course, the result may be disastrous for the country. That's up to voters. If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it.
The bluff has been called. Cameron can't manage a broad church, if the voters don't like what they see why on earth would they vote for it. Waving the Miliband bogeyman achieves little when his profile is not that different than Cameron ( Oxbridge, Spad, Power wife, millionaire ).
The animals are looking on and can see little difference between the pigs and the humans.
The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
I saw someone make a comment that Carswell was a maverick.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
How times change.
I also remember being a big fan of Cameron when I first posted here on PB in 2009 (IIRC), now I think he's just an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boy
Of course he was always an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boy - I gave him the benefit of the doubt for several years regardless, but the ineptitude of this government and his inability to control his own party have diminished him considerably.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one by one introduced policies that would piss each of them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
He may still want that. He just doesn't need the people of Clacton to vote for Cameron.
The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.
If Carswell loses, which seems likely, then voters might well give up on UKIP and switch back to the main parties (and the tin-foil brigade will be split as to whether it was Osborne's or Crosby's cunning plan to ensure victory in 2015).
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
An interesting point. Carswell's defection really is one of those things that is probably bad for all the other parties at once. The Tories are once again in chaos, particularly if he wins, their faultlines open as many will probably barely hide their hope that Carswell wins; Labour hardly want people to think UKIP is not a wasted vote - while the Tories will probably suffer most, best not to place more Labour seats at risk. And if the LDs, well, things cannot get much worse, but at some point UKIP taking votes from everyone includes them too.
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.
The reason is that in Essex, there are plenty of working class Labour voters, whose views could be regarded as "right wing", but who don't want to vote Conservative. They're the sort of people who've switched from Labour to UKIP in places like Gooshays, or Basildon.
They're quite different from Labour supporters in places like Newham, or Islington, or Glasgow, or South Wales.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.
"Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind."
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
UKIP beat the Conservatives in the EU Parliament election.
Agreed. But many of those voters came from Labour and NOTA. The idea that UKIP is formed from Conservative voters is long dead.
I'm on the fence about the EU, and certainly do not want further integration. I should be able to vote for UKIP. Yet they offer me nothing concrete, and are positively repulsive on other issues.
As an example, take grammar schools. I want better education for every child; I have been banging on about the shocking illiteracy and innumeracy rates for years on here and elsewhere. Yet grammar schools are a step back, especially as few, if any, of the proponents ever talk about what happens to the kids who do not get into grammar schools.
They should stfu about grammar schools, and instead talk about the children who are being left behind.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
TBF if it came down to it I'd imagine Carswell would vote for Cameron over Miliband in a confidence motion in 2015, albeit potentially after extracting concessions.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Cameron won 37% in 2010 and now they're regularly polling 33 or 34%. That isn't symptomatic of crossing people off a list. What it does show is that when you're in power, it's even more difficult to please everyone.
The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.
If Carswell loses, which seems likely, then voters might well give up on UKIP and switch back to the main parties (and the tin-foil brigade will be split as to whether it was Osborne's or Crosby's cunning plan to ensure victory in 2015).
Some might, but probably not enough. This seems their best opportunity yet, but they've come close and yet failed before, and it hasn't punctured their future chances yet.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
Don't be sour Richard.
He said today that Cameron addressed the 1922 committee recently and said he was going to do whatever it took to keep us in the EU, but pretend to the electorate he was concerned enough about leaving to hoodwink their votes
I don't think this will be a series a defections. I've always liked Douglas Carswell and he had some good ideas surrounding direct democracy (one of which was elections Police Commissioners interestingly enough). I believe he is very intense and that is what has led him to defect. He does consider issues on a case by case basis and if UKIP do plan to have a proper policy platform, he will speak out if he disagrees. An example is HS2 where I do not believe he signed up to oppose.
I find all these UKIP defections strange because the thinking seems to be that Cameron is going to be leader forever. Even if he wins next year, its doubtful he would want to do a full term.
There are a group of about 30 Tory MPs who are currently operating as the Militant Tendency did in Labour.They are a party within a party and are the next generation of John Major's "bastards".Any one of these could explode at any time.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
Assuming Carswell is re-elected, he'll vote in favour of an EU referendum
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
Don't be sour Richard.
He said today that Cameron addressed the 1922 committee recently and said he was going to do whatever it took to keep us in the EU, but pretend to the electorate he was concerned enough about leaving to hoodwink their votes
That seems...unlikely. I find it hard to believe a career politico like Cameron would be so careless as to admit something like that even in private, even if - especially in fact - it was the truth.
Labour PPC for Clacton is Tim Young (Leader of Colchester Labour Group). I don't know what the NEC will do now. If he's nota mad basket case, they will confirm it for the by-election.
Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
The bit I never got was the gratutitous insults for no gain.
His Blair-dazzled spinners seemed to think that every moment had to be a clause 4 one. One or two sacred cows for the abattoir I could understand, but going on non-stop and throwing no red meat out to make it worthwhile staying the course was just stupid politics.
The PB role of honour of those who started out in 2010 giving Cameron goodwill and the benefit of the doubt and who have peeled off one by one is fairly instructive.
Labour PPC for Clacton is Tim Young (Leader of Colchester Labour Group). I don't know what the NEC will do now. If he's nota mad basket case, they will confirm it for the by-election.
I know a fair few people who think very poorly of Mr Young. For some, at least - and I cannot call this more than an anecdote - they feel he represents a lack of accountability.
Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Another great irony.....on the day that the Scots launch their last ditch secret weapon-vote YES or in 2017 we might end up out of the EU-the Tory right start to defect to a Party that'll make sure we're out.
Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive (I was going to say elect a Tory government but it didn't rhyme)
Maybe the LDs should just not bother standing in this by-election? They will not only go backward but face humiliation of a 4,5,6th place in all probability. Perhaps they should just argue that this by-election was not precipitated for any good purpose, but merely Carswell's internal Conservative disputes, so they will just let UKIP and Tories battle it out.
Nonsense of course, but it surely cannot be worth wasting a deposit and the admittedly minor ground game that would be done to go through the motions.
Hague on Radio 4 saying the only option is a Tory majority.
The problem is no-one believes the Tories can win an overall majority anymore. That's a serious problem for Cameron.
I dunno, even some of the hardcore Labour junkies might start jumping ship now the lid is off in Rotherham, and they realise they do nothing to protect the kiddies. Labour, oversee the killing of people in hospital and turn a blind eye to kiddie abuse. Nice people.
Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
What threats? once you're out, you're out. If you're staring down the barrel of a possible election defeat then you've got nothing to lose by rolling the dice.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
What threats? once you're out, you're out. If you're staring down the barrel of a possible election defeat then you've got nothing to lose by rolling the dice.
I didn't say the threats would not be empty threats. All Cameron's people have until 2015 is bluster.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.
The party (conservative one) is OVER and for these reasons.
A.Douglas Carswell is a not just anybody, he is a popular heavyweight MP. B.UKIP gets a CON defection at a critical moment. C. Cameron faces first calls to resign. D.UKIP (Carswell actually) will win its first seat, making that breakthrough. E.After winning a seat UKIP can no longer be excluded by the media broadcasts in the general election.
In short, UKIP makes breakthrough, Tory party splits.
During the time he should have speaking with Carswell,Cameron was surfing on a Cornwall beach.How many other Tory MPs feel similarly shunned by the old Etonian chumocracy?
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
Oh dear. You'd almost think that The Establishment are the victims in all of this. They are not. They are bringing about their own demise through blatant incomptence, over many decades.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money. Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
Great times for creative campaigning in Clacton for the Tories.
"Last week I agreed with Mr Carswell totally, a great man. This week, I still agree with practically everything he believes in, but you must never ever vote for him".
During the time he should have speaking with Carswell,Cameron was surfing on a Cornwall beach.How many other Tory MPs feel similarly shunned by the old Etonian chumocracy?
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
Oh dear. You'd almost think that The Establishment are the victims in all of this. They are not. They are bringing about their own demise through blatant incomptence, over many decades.
The last thing they deserve (or need) is pity.
I don't disagree. I'm merely pointing out that it is the establishment, in the shape of Labour, who will benefit from anti-establishment feeling, because the left are junkies, and stupid So, good luck with going to hospital or not having your kids abused for the next five years.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.
No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?
Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.
I don't think UKIP does comprise solely of disillusioned Conservatives, but it probably does comprise mostly of people who in the past might have been persuaded to vote Conservative but who now would never dream of it.
By the way Mr. O next month I am going to owe you £50 and a bottle of something decent. I haven't forgotten but I have lost your address (it was on my computer that went splat). Could you let me have it again, please?
One positive for Labour from Carswell's defection is they will tell their Northern base that the UKIP sheep is a thatcherite wolf in disguise.
Tell that to Rotherham. I can imagine how the canvassing will go: "those children were raped by asian gangs" "yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"
'UK minister open to joining Alex Salmond’s team if Scotland votes Yes'
... The idea of Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary, publicly debating his possible role in establishing an independent state caused dismay in the No campaign and has heightened speculation he could lose his job.
... Some senior Liberal Democrats say they expect Mr Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, to be moved out of the cabinet when Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and party leader, conducts a reshuffle of the coalition’s Lib Dem ministers in the next few weeks.
Jo Swinson, the 34-year-old employment minister and MP for East Dunbartonshire, has been tipped to replace Mr Carmichael after the referendum, adding a much-needed female face to Mr Clegg’s top team.
... Asked about the possibility of a Yes vote – which is still unlikely according to opinion polls – Mr Carmichael added: “If that is something that happens then yes, I would want to get the best possible deal for Scotland.”
The pro-union Better Together campaign declined to comment, although privately officials were amazed that the Scottish secretary should have ventured into speculation about defeat on September 18. One senior member of the campaign asked: “Why would he do it now?”
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money. Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Cynic that I am I think there might be some value in the Tories @ 2/1 in Clacton. 4/6 would be a fairer price for UKIP than 1/3.
That said, the Heathites (Nabavi, Jessop etc.) haven't been in such reactionary form in quite a while. A glorious sight.
Heathite?
A bit of projection there, methinks.
In my time on PB I've been called a Tory, a left-winger, a liberal, and even a UKIPper by some deluded fool. I think that's because idiots cannot compartmentalise someone who has voted for candidates from many parties and independents (except Labour).
Edit: you could also call me a Wilsonite or Bennite as I quite like the idea of: "the Britain that is going to be forged in the white heat of this revolution (technological change) will be no place for restrictive practices or for outdated measures on either side of industry".
We’ve also quoted 6/4 that any other Tory MP defects before the general election. Nadine Dorries and Mark Reckless are a couple of names that spring to mind.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.
No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?
Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money. Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.
Depends on whether you count the fact of or the cause of recession. Recessions happen when the money runs out. That happens under Labours watch. The necessary retrenchment to save the economy etc etc etc. Hit it until it's on the point of shattering, then run away and blame the ones who try and keep it all together. labours meme since 1945
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.
The reason is that in Essex, there are plenty of working class Labour voters, whose views could be regarded as "right wing", but who don't want to vote Conservative. They're the sort of people who've switched from Labour to UKIP in places like Gooshays, or Basildon.
They're quite different from Labour supporters in places like Newham, or Islington, or Glasgow, or South Wales.
Something in that, I think. But Carswell isn't classically right-wing - he's one of those people for whom it's hard to predict what he'll say on any new issue. He is not a tub-thumping populist - I'm not sure he's especially anti-immigration, for instance, though I might be wrong. Our legal contributor here who posts austere comments from the viewpoint of a strict-construction libertarian (forgotten his name, sorry - 4 words) gets his flavour most closely.
Ladbrokes usually puts its markets up the Monday before a race. I'll be checking the odds on Williams to top score. Monza's a collection of straight lines, and the Williams is the fastest car in a straight line.
Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
Muppet.
You are saying that about someone who has sat and discussed EU policy with David Cameron and decided that he is as much of a Brussels lap dog as Miliband
Why is Cameron taking so long to move the writ for Clacton? When will he get a grip?
It's so close to the general election, might as well leave it till May 2015...
No its not close enough, the by-election will have to happen sometime in late September-early October. It will overshadow the conferences, Carswell is not an idiot, he is sure of his re-election and he caused the by-election at the moment of maximum effect.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.
I don't think UKIP does comprise solely of disillusioned Conservatives, but it probably does comprise mostly of people who in the past might have been persuaded to vote Conservative but who now would never dream of it.
By the way Mr. O next month I am going to owe you £50 and a bottle of something decent. I haven't forgotten but I have lost your address (it was on my computer that went splat). Could you let me have it again, please?
Thanks - it will certainly put to good use, perhaps easing the pain of Mr Carswell's ratting. Drop me a line on john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk and I will ask my manservant, Hugh, to arrange the details.
Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
Good question, who is next to defect? I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically almost every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.
Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
Good question, who is next to defect? I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
Half a dozen coastal MPs. UKIP have zero chance in rural Southern and Eastern England.
Comments
Hopefully Lynton Crosby will remind voters that the Tories are still what they've always been otherwise I see this as a black day for Ed
CON 25
Labour 25
LD 3
Oth 7
The animals are looking on and can see little difference between the pigs and the humans.
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
They're quite different from Labour supporters in places like Newham, or Islington, or Glasgow, or South Wales.
I'm on the fence about the EU, and certainly do not want further integration. I should be able to vote for UKIP. Yet they offer me nothing concrete, and are positively repulsive on other issues.
As an example, take grammar schools. I want better education for every child; I have been banging on about the shocking illiteracy and innumeracy rates for years on here and elsewhere. Yet grammar schools are a step back, especially as few, if any, of the proponents ever talk about what happens to the kids who do not get into grammar schools.
They should stfu about grammar schools, and instead talk about the children who are being left behind.
http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg
In Clacton they start on 12.9%...
He said today that Cameron addressed the 1922 committee recently and said he was going to do whatever it took to keep us in the EU, but pretend to the electorate he was concerned enough about leaving to hoodwink their votes
The problem is no-one believes the Tories can win an overall majority anymore. That's a serious problem for Cameron.
Respek also goes to you Mr Llama. Your anecdotal reports of huge enthusiasm for UKIP in a safe tory seat have turned out to be highly propitious.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Gale
"I have absolutely no intention of leaving the Conservative Party", he says, sounding somewhat less than completely convinced.
His Blair-dazzled spinners seemed to think that every moment had to be a clause 4 one. One or two sacred cows for the abattoir I could understand, but going on non-stop and throwing no red meat out to make it worthwhile staying the course was just stupid politics.
The PB role of honour of those who started out in 2010 giving Cameron goodwill and the benefit of the doubt and who have peeled off one by one is fairly instructive.
Make that 230.
Who knows. Perhaps UKIP's next defector is a northern labour MP sickened by the party's conduct in Rotherham.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGtQck5wOU5mN1lQSjIydkZRQTNWbFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
That said, the Heathites (Nabavi, Jessop etc.) haven't been in such reactionary form in quite a while. A glorious sight.
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/08/douglas-carswell-popular-with-the-tories-labour-and-now-ukip/
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive (I was going to say elect a Tory government but it didn't rhyme)
Nonsense of course, but it surely cannot be worth wasting a deposit and the admittedly minor ground game that would be done to go through the motions.
Labour, oversee the killing of people in hospital and turn a blind eye to kiddie abuse. Nice people.
I think I'd be quite good at it
LOL
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Now he can be UKIPs man to sweep up the remaining six lib Dems in the country.
A.Douglas Carswell is a not just anybody, he is a popular heavyweight MP.
B.UKIP gets a CON defection at a critical moment.
C. Cameron faces first calls to resign.
D.UKIP (Carswell actually) will win its first seat, making that breakthrough.
E.After winning a seat UKIP can no longer be excluded by the media broadcasts in the general election.
In short, UKIP makes breakthrough, Tory party splits.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100284247/douglas-carswells-defection-is-a-seismic-shock-to-the-british-political-system/
During the time he should have speaking with Carswell,Cameron was surfing on a Cornwall beach.How many other Tory MPs feel similarly shunned by the old Etonian chumocracy?
The last thing they deserve (or need) is pity.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/carswell-odds-on-to-win-clacton-for-ukip/
"Last week I agreed with Mr Carswell totally, a great man. This week, I still agree with practically everything he believes in, but you must never ever vote for him".
So, good luck with going to hospital or not having your kids abused for the next five years.
ISIS, UKIP,British Jihadists, UKIP, Asian sex gangs, UKIP
I can't think of a better media moment for UKIP, it just reinforces their entire ideological position.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
Muppet.
By the way Mr. O next month I am going to owe you £50 and a bottle of something decent. I haven't forgotten but I have lost your address (it was on my computer that went splat). Could you let me have it again, please?
I can imagine how the canvassing will go:
"those children were raped by asian gangs"
"yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"
... The idea of Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary, publicly debating his possible role in establishing an independent state caused dismay in the No campaign and has heightened speculation he could lose his job.
... Some senior Liberal Democrats say they expect Mr Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, to be moved out of the cabinet when Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and party leader, conducts a reshuffle of the coalition’s Lib Dem ministers in the next few weeks.
Jo Swinson, the 34-year-old employment minister and MP for East Dunbartonshire, has been tipped to replace Mr Carmichael after the referendum, adding a much-needed female face to Mr Clegg’s top team.
... Asked about the possibility of a Yes vote – which is still unlikely according to opinion polls – Mr Carmichael added: “If that is something that happens then yes, I would want to get the best possible deal for Scotland.”
The pro-union Better Together campaign declined to comment, although privately officials were amazed that the Scottish secretary should have ventured into speculation about defeat on September 18. One senior member of the campaign asked: “Why would he do it now?”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a78f3e80-2ea0-11e4-bffa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BgnqEhhv
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.
A bit of projection there, methinks.
In my time on PB I've been called a Tory, a left-winger, a liberal, and even a UKIPper by some deluded fool. I think that's because idiots cannot compartmentalise someone who has voted for candidates from many parties and independents (except Labour).
Edit: you could also call me a Wilsonite or Bennite as I quite like the idea of: "the Britain that is going to be forged in the white heat of this revolution (technological change) will be no place for restrictive practices or for outdated measures on either side of industry".
What say you, Peter the Punter?
Maybe. Look at it from his point of view
Cameron = UK stays in on basically the same terms
Miliband = UK stays in on basically the same terms
Hit it until it's on the point of shattering, then run away and blame the ones who try and keep it all together. labours meme since 1945
Do you honestly think Rotherham will fall to UKIP, Mr Speedy? I'm not so sure.
http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/172857.html
Ladbrokes usually puts its markets up the Monday before a race. I'll be checking the odds on Williams to top score. Monza's a collection of straight lines, and the Williams is the fastest car in a straight line.
Without the honesty
It will overshadow the conferences, Carswell is not an idiot, he is sure of his re-election and he caused the by-election at the moment of maximum effect.
Drop me a line on john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk and I will ask my manservant, Hugh, to arrange the details.
Owen Paterson and Liam Fox look bitter enough to go to UKIP. Maybe.
Paterson who?
I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically almost every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.