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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the Tories
MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to #Ukip
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Going to have to dig through the betting archives to work out if this is a winner or loser or no difference for me.
Does this trigger a by-election ?
Which he might.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-28965618
Go on Righties, split 50/50 and let Lab sneak through the middle, do it...
Update, 11.15: Carswell has announced that he is forcing a by-election in his constituency. This is a real Black Swan moment for David Cameron.
The MP For Clacton in Essex said he made the decision because he believes UKIP is the only party that can break up the "cosy Westminster elite".
Flanked by his new party leader Nigel Farage, Mr Carswell said he would resign from Parliament and stand for UKIP in a by-election.
More follows...
Excellent news for Labour.
UKIP 10-15% 15/8 Ladbrokes looks good... Have a saver on the 9/2 15-20%
Tories attack him at your peril. This could rip the right apart.
I trust any PBers with non-taxpayer backed pensions have been heeding my warnings over the last few months.
http://derekbateman.co.uk/2014/03/31/dr-strangelove/
Remember Carswell biggest political achievement is making John Bercow speaker.
Well played Douglas.
Theresa May's vow to reduce Britain's net migration to under 100,000 in tatters after ONS says figure rose 68,000 in last year"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/28/uk-net-migration-soars-to-243000-theresa-may
I really like Carswell.
Name of Registered Party
Number of Votes
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now
704
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
410
Christian Peoples Alliance
263
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe
9981
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean!
550
Green Party
2604
Labour Party
5241
Liberal Democrats
848
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights
119
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
19,398
Anybody who followed my advice yesterday to buy UKIP >1 to 5 seats on Betfair got their timing perfectly right. Most of the value has now gone but maybe the 9/4 is still worth taking.
Douglas Carswell a big catch. Eloquent advocate of open, liberal optimistic EU-scepticism. But v.different immig views to medían ukip voter
Much as Labour will probably sit back and enjoy the show, and are likely to get squeezed, I'd be interested in a little look...
Not so fast - he's resigning and restanding in a by-election.
But it does make the case for 2 debates: (1) as a 4 way between the 4 significant national parties (sorry Neil) and (2) a head to head with Miliband vs Cameron as the most likely PMs.
I'd probably use criteria such as:
to qualify for debate (1) standing in >50% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging > 10% in poll of polls [to be defined but the obvious ones] in the 12 months prior to announcement for the election
to qualify for debate (2) standing in >75% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging >25%...
Edited extra bit: Mr. Max, I pretty much agree. Unless there's a Yes or a shock defeat for Carswell in the by-election, the next election is far likelier to see a Labour majority now.
Principles are nice, but there is a line when adhering to them amounts to stupidity. A vegetarian who starves to death whilst ignoring a bacon sandwich isn't an advert for ideology.
There's not only the EU, but also the Scottish vote. This may have no impact north of the border, but if it does it will only help Yes and potentially destroy the UK as it currently exists.
Tories on here are getting really desperate today. It was your fault the Right got split, because you comprehensively failed to do anything about conservative concerns on civil liberties, on the EU, on immigration. Rather than be spiteful to the party actually representing those concerns, perhaps you could try addressing them...
Will be very interesting to see how this develops. I presume we'll see a fairly anti-European Tory message.
But I'm waiting to hear what Bernard Jenkin as to say. They've done wuite a lot of campaigning/fund-raising together.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
Will Hannan follow ?
UKIP 1/3
Con 5/2
Lab 100/1
I reckon UKIP and the Conservatives will probably take at least 70% of the vote between them in Clacton, just as they did in Newark. Labour will finish a poor third.
Direct Democracy is a good angle for UKIP, as it can unify both Labour and Tory leaning supporters.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/5329377/My_plan_to_rescue_Britain_in_just_12_months/
Carswell an all round good egg. Sensible, moral, likeable, right about things. This will change the GE result I think (along with Rotherham). EICIPM much more likely.
Winners: Carswell, Farage, BoJo, Miliband
Losers: Dave, the cosy Westminster PC consensus / business as usual
I'm also left wondering about Daniel Hannan. Carswell and Hannan are joined at the hip politically and BFFs. A Hannan defection would be equally sensational.
I don't want to drag Scotland on to a much more interesting thread.
But "refute that if you can" was the challenge.
Of course 5,000 jobs are not the "top jobs". But they are the ecosystems that supports the CEO's office. And they are all well paid. It will be a significant economic loss to Scotland.
I can respect the argument that it's a price worth paying. But to pretend it's not going to happen is just foolish.
From UKPR:
"The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days."
On civil liberties, to claim UKIP are 'addressing concerns' is just a joke. Only a few days ago Farage was advocating citizens being stripped of their citizenshp by executive fiat.
On immigration, the government is reducing non-EU immigration (as much as it can within the constraints of coalition with a pro-immigration party). That is all it can do until we've sorted out the EU aspect.
But go ahead, put the two Eds into Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street. I'm sure that will address your concerns.
Seems fair enough to me.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
Take the Betfair prices while you can. On reflection, anything above evens on the 1to5 seat market is now value.
Funnily enough I don't believe MPs should have to resign their seat if they cross the floor since they are elected as individual representatives. But Carswell has always maintained that they should and is living up to his beliefs.
I do wish he were my MP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
This leaves me torn - think continuation of the Coalition is the best option for the country now, think I want to see him win this by-election.
You can solve that by moving to Clacton ;-)
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retains the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.
http://www.harwichandmanningtreestandard.co.uk/news/eveninggazettenews/10848505.Tim_Young_selected_as_Labour_candidate_for_Clacton/
The Tories are left with a real selection headache.If they go down the route of South Thanet and field an identikit Ukip candidate to Carswell they lose the progressive vote.If they field a soft Cameroon,their right flank is similarly exposed.This is effectively a choice of political suicide.I think it reasonable to think the Tories are going to get squeezed either way and therefore predict the Tories will not win this bye-election.
The big question is whether this switch from Tory to Ukip turns from a trickle into a flood.Where's the betting on who will the next Tory MP to defect to Ukip?
I hope he gets back in.
Unless there's more in the pipeline.
If UKIP splits the right-wing vote and lets Labour in, the Conservatives will repeat that message every single hour of the General Election campaign - "Vote UKIP, get Miliband" - and people will believe them.
The best result for Labour in Clacton would be a narrow UKIP win, Conservatives second.
(Incidentally, has anyone noticed that "Michael Green" fought Clacton for the LibDems in 2010? I guess if you have an alter ego, it might as well belong to another party...)
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
"...small earthquake in Clacton...and the caravan moves on."
I see you are familiar with the place, Lord Hersham.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.