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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the

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  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    taffys said:

    "yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"

    Do you honestly think Rotherham will fall to UKIP, Mr Speedy? I'm not so sure.

    7/2 seems just about a bet to me.. was tempted before today, but I think Carswells move makes all UKIP related markets more likely, by 2-3%
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    Further defections would be very damaging to the Tories - there's no point in arguing otherwise.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?

    Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.
    Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.

    In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.

    The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.

    Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
    Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Ca Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.
    Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.
    Sorry John O that's to miss the point.

    The Tories are sat on y he'll never get a majority in his own right.
    Are there moreisllusioned Conservatives.
    No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?
    Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.
    Hmm

    this seems to be the stock answer from Tories that everyone is hard right. Most of the " who should I vote for surveys " say I should vote LD which I have in the past.

    Really it's the boneheaded stupidity of the current Tories which is the strangest thing.

    You have no plan to manage a broad spectrum of voters, you can't engage with large sectors of the electorate and your only hope is the continued denial that you have a problem , so it's the electorate that is wrong.

    Your 38% prayer is simply raising the white flag and shows no ambition to form a government. Incredible.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.

    The Establishment are in acute difficulty.

    Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
    And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
    I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
    Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.

    So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.

    And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.

    Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.
    Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
    The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.

    All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.

    Read up on your economic history.
    Can you name a Labour government that left the economy in a better situation than when they started?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited August 2014
    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    It looks as if the Ukraine will explode across Europe shortly, and knock everything else off the front pages.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151
    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Priti Patel could defect?

    Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
    Good question, who is next to defect?
    I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
    And, assuming these whispers are correct, when?

    This weekend? Conferences? Closer to the election?

    *takes another handful of popcorn*
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,256
    Richard N

    "If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it."

    Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hugh said:

    isam said:
    Haaahahaha. The little Murdoch lickspittle really isn't the sharpest tool in the box is she.
    Mensch has no credibility at all. She used her position in the Tory party to help Murdoch and then her position in the Murdoch press to help the Tories. She's very the embodiment of the revolving door political-media establishment that needs to be torn apart.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Priti Patel could defect?

    Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
    Good question, who is next to defect?
    I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically almost every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
    Home counties Tory MPs are probably the least likely to defect, excluding coastal areas.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.

    Judging by their merry posts on here today, many labour posters think Rotherham has not changed the old politics, and they are on the way to a stonking majority.

    ''Lessons learned all round"
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Priti Patel could defect?

    Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
    Good question, who is next to defect?
    I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
    And, assuming these whispers are correct, when?

    This weekend? Conferences? Closer to the election?

    *takes another handful of popcorn*
    Who knows?
    It could be drip drip drip until election day.
    It could be even tonight.

    But logically they would do it on the conference platform, imagine a Tory MP making his speech in the Tory conference and announcing to the crowd of party members, MP's and journalists that he is defecting to UKIP.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've just been looking down the comments in The Times, and it seems about 30/30/40 Who?/Yeah!!!/Idiot
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same. ''

    Margaret Thatcher is the only one who affected me. Massively for the positive.

    Otherwise, I agree.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449
    Roger said:

    Richard N

    "If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it."

    Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.

    Indeed. At the end of the day, even a really bad government rarely impacts on people so disastrously as to cause genuine trouble, especially as a lot of aspects of government seem like changing electricity supplier, where the only definite difference is the name at the top of the bill, with the changes coming in highly specific areas which won't affect everyone.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited August 2014

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.


    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    Sums up whole swathes of the political class.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.


  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    BenM said:
    Aargh I have a metal detector (with which I have found other metals but no gold so far) but I'm no where near Folkestone.
    I can give you tips though, since the man who buried it is an artist and the whole purpose is for people to dig the beach in order to create some artform, then the gold might be scattered in a pattern.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Socrates said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:
    Haaahahaha. The little Murdoch lickspittle really isn't the sharpest tool in the box is she.
    Mensch has no credibility at all. She used her position in the Tory party to help Murdoch and then her position in the Murdoch press to help the Tories. She's very the embodiment of the revolving door political-media establishment that needs to be torn apart.
    TBH I'm not sure you'll find many Mensch backers on here under whatever colours.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    Breitbart is reporting a number of Clacton councillors are set to follow Carswell to UKIP.

    They plan to turn it into a power base, it seems.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Plato said:

    I've just been looking down the comments in The Times, and it seems about 30/30/40 Who?/Yeah!!!/Idiot

    That in Essex means a landslide majority for Carswell.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151
    edited August 2014
    Roger said:



    I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same.

    Was you on the Cote D'Azur through most of the 70's?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Priti Patel could defect?

    Her father stood as a UKIP candidate in the local elections in Hertsmere.
    Good question, who is next to defect?
    I assume MP's who are sure of winning their seats with UKIP, basically almost every Tory MP in the South and the East of England.
    Home counties Tory MPs are probably the least likely to defect, excluding coastal areas.
    It all depends if they are right wing and feel secure enough that they can win their seats with UKIP, many in the shires fit that category.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    e population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?

    Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.
    Hmm

    this seems to be the stock answer from Tories that everyone is hard right. Most of the " who should I vote for surveys " say I should vote LD which I have in the past.

    Really it's the boneheaded stupidity of the current Tories which is the strangest thing.

    You have no plan to manage a broad spectrum of voters, you can't engage with large sectors of the electorate and your only hope is the continued denial that you have a problem , so it's the electorate that is wrong.

    Your 38% prayer is simply raising the white flag and shows no ambition to form a government. Incredible.
    Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.

    I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited August 2014
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.
    Carswell had a part in creating PCC's through the “Direct Democracy Agenda”. Certain irony there.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    @Alanbrooke

    Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.

    I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited August 2014
    Ironically, the Tories best hope now is for a proper UKIP breakthrough that can damage Labour in the North and Midlands too. UKIP to hold balance of power and prop Cameron/Tories up in return for referendum etc etc.
    Some sort of unofficially united message re Stafford, Rotherham, the economy.
    Labour, can't be trusted with your money, your health, your life or the safety of your children.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate?

    The story is moving on.

    Bernados are apparently set to announce that Rotherham is the 'tip of the iceberg' (from twitter).
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    taffys said:

    ''Do you really believe that? I must have lived through eight or nine PM's and I can honestly say I haven't personally been affected by any of them. Apart from some irritation with foreign adventures I imagine most people would tell you the same. ''

    Margaret Thatcher is the only one who affected me. Massively for the positive.

    Otherwise, I agree.

    Are you sure Mr. Taffys? Wilson and Callaghan administrations did enormous damage to the wealth of the UK, that didn't affect you? You haven't been affected by deepest recession in modern times? Really? That is just to think about economic matters, what about the social revolution that kicked off in the sixties? Not affected? The explosion in the UK population caused by massive immigration in the past decade or so, has that not affected you? The change in education standards since the sixties has that not effected you? I could go on but the only way I can think that you have not been affected by various administrations is that you are either fabulously wealthy or are actually a brain in a jar that has no need to interact with the outside world.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    edited August 2014
    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.

    David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.
    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449
    Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679


    I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?
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    Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.

    He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.

    Muppet.

    As opposed to the Brussels lap-dog Cameron?

    I suspect the muppets are those who believe anything Cameron says about changing our relationship with the EU.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited August 2014
    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We do indeed need a revolution. Desperately. I, for one, will happily sacrifice the Tory party to the dustbin of history if the disgusting left are swept away with them.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.
    The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,137
    Mr. kle4, well, quite. The EU's very good at backstairs shady manoeuvring to overturn and ignore the will of free people and gerrymander its way to a little bureaucratic empire, but when it comes to hard power you might as well call on the Liechtenstein army.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Carswell at his finest.
  • Options
    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.

    David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.



    Perhaps both realised that their party leader was only paying lip service to the causes and principles they deeply believed in and they were no longer willing to serve a hypocrite.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Soft on kiddy fiddling, soft on the causes of kiddy fiddling
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    JohnO said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Sorry but you're now becoming bizarrely delusional in purporting to refute arguments I have never made. EVERYONE hard right according to Tories like me? The electorate is wrong? Grow up man. But the picture of you and Tim Farron communing with Simon Hughes over organic turnips (veg du jour) is one for keepers.

    I have several bets with tim for next year and all are predicated that the Tories will do better in 2015 than they did in 2010 and thus the Tories will continue in government and am cautiously optimistic of a small but sufficient overall majority. That remains my view.

    Well John in your last post you told me I was hard right. Perhaps you should read what you write ;-).

    As for turnips well it is rather the PB vegetable of choice.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.

    David Davis pulled a similar stunt, only he did so earlier in the last Parliament over an issue he also cared passionately about while remaining a Conservative MP. And in doing so, he managed to remove himself from the one Shadow Cabinet post where he could have gone onto make a real difference over Civil Liberties as a Home Secretary in a Conservative Government.

    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Extraordinary. An honest politician.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    RED ED, RED ED, RED ED

    No it doesn't scare me either.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Well it made me laugh:

    Liar MPs ‏@LiarMPs 2h
    BREAKING: No one will be defecting to the LibDems.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    kle4 said:

    Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679


    I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?

    I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,686

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.
    The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.
    And that is the real question of this week's politics: how do we move forward on this? Even if we have zero immigration from those countries or into those communities moving forwards, we have been left with a generation or two whose morals and mindsets are directly antithetical to ours.

    The same can be said for the evil idiots / deluded fools who go to fight for IS in Syria and Iraq.

    How do we fix it? How do these people and, to a lesser extent the communities they live in, learn that these crimes are incompatible with life in the UK?

    I'm at a loss.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151
    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.

    I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.

    But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.



  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    Imagine if the expenses saga came out now......
    What will be the spark that lights the blue touch paper?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449
    Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679


    I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?

    I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.
    It should still have worked, but deep down they must know better than we how the EU has no teeth in this fight.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2014
    Speedy said:

    People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.

    People of sense want to be able to fight successfully for those principles. A very good way of doing that, if you are concerned about civil liberties for example, would be to become Home Secretary - the best possible position in the entire country to achieve something effective in line with your principles. Of course that opportunity is open only to a tiny number of people. One of those rare people was David Davis, who deliberately threw the opportunity away, for no reason that anyone could discern. 'Bonkers' hardly begins to cover it, principles or no principles.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.
    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    1,400 children were raped and abused.

    They were neglected by the services supposed to help them.

    They were rejected by the Police when they wanted to complain.

    Years later, they finally get their time in the media, a time to put pressure on all those responsible.

    And... Carswell overshadows the lot and thinks his political objectives are more important than their lives.

    "Self-indulgent" is putting it mildly; surely he could have waited a week.

    I think that's being harsh. How long would have been appropriate? A week, you suggest. What if some other major event or revelation crops up between now and then? Or a week after that? Life goes on and in any case, supposedly only political wonks care about such things as Carswell's news, can politicians not cope with that and the Rotherham business? If the public and media lose interest in the latter so quickly because some guy switches political party, or cannot be focused on both, the problem is with society, not Carswell.
    The Carswell story is only headline grabbing to political anoraks. 1,400 girls abused in Rotherham will remain the big story.
    Both are linked, Carswell would not have been able to do it if the word racism was meaningfull, UKIP were prone to accusations like that, after Rotherham it's not.
    As I said last night the Rotherham sex scandal has shifted the middle of the road to the right, things that were considered unacceptable before that are now talked about by ordinary people.
    UKIP is no longer an extreme party in the likes of the events that have shifted public perception.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Quite a rare thing, this - a Tory defecting and fighting a by-election. Last example I can find was the Isle of Wight in 1904...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,137
    Mr. Brooke, I don't think it's wise for the Conservatives to campaign "Don't vote UKIP or Miliband will win". However, I do think a Miliband premiership could be very bad indeed. Cf Hollande.

    The joy of a protest vote for a party with no hope of power is that you get to feel all principled, whilst a mediocre PM may be replaced by a disastrous one.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    The alleged figure of 250 would be about 15% of the men aged 18-50 from that community.

    http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6508106&c=rotherham&d=27&e=61&g=6354996&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1409231996442&enc=1&dsFamilyId=2575

    2011 census: 6,521 Pakistanis in the Rotherham constituency. Men aged 18-50 would be about a quarter of that, so roughly 1,600. 250/1600 = c.15%.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham, is that the flames of anger, revulsion and revolution end up spiralling out of control. And it won't be the Rotherham rapists who cop it, sadly,
    We have been let down and betrayed. What a sad state of affairs.
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?
    Plod's too busy chasing Cliff Richard in 1985.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.

    I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.

    But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.

    Time to change the electoral system, then.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,543

    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Extraordinary. An honest politician.
    But what use is an honest politician who has no power - and no prospect of power?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151
    edited August 2014
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.
    I don't think they will lose those seat's. In 2010 we saw how Labour voters held their nose and turned out for Gordon Brown. All the many posts on here (including some from me) talking about Labour meltdowns, etc... Came to nothing whatsoever.

    If 2010 proved anything it is that Labour voters turn out what it counts.

    Today is a gift for Labour and a disaster for the Right in general.

  • Options

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Convicted of dangerous driving after colliding with a PC on traffic duty.

    Labour's candidate.Tim Young,locally educated, Labour group leader for Colchester.

    http://www.harwichandmanningtreestandard.co.uk/news/eveninggazettenews/10848505.Tim_Young_selected_as_Labour_candidate_for_Clacton/

    The Tories are left with a real selection headache.If they go down the route of South Thanet and field an identikit Ukip candidate to Carswell they lose the progressive vote.If they field a soft Cameroon,their right flank is similarly exposed.This is effectively a choice of political suicide.I think it reasonable to think the Tories are going to get squeezed either way and therefore predict the Tories will not win this bye-election.
    The big question is whether this switch from Tory to Ukip turns from a trickle into a flood.Where's the betting on who will the next Tory MP to defect to Ukip?

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    kle4 said:

    Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    Ukrainskaya Pravda news and analysis website quotes a diplomatic source as saying Kiev is "deeply disappointed" and "shocked" by the EU's response, or rather absence of it, to Russian troop deployment in south-east Ukraine

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28966679


    I cannot believe they are actually shocked by the response. What could possibly have given them the idea that the response would be anything other than it has already been?

    I don't know. The longstanding international principle that collective security would stop countries invading their neighbours.
    It should still have worked, but deep down they must know better than we how the EU has no teeth in this fight.
    European nations have been led by self-interested careerists for decades. They've reduced their defence budgets year on year, hoping the US will pick up the cheque for their defence. Suddenly they can't do anything about outright imperialism on their borders.

    Sometimes I wish there was a hell so men like Putin could rot in it.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338

    Mr. Brooke, I don't think it's wise for the Conservatives to campaign "Don't vote UKIP or Miliband will win". However, I do think a Miliband premiership could be very bad indeed. Cf Hollande.

    The joy of a protest vote for a party with no hope of power is that you get to feel all principled, whilst a mediocre PM may be replaced by a disastrous one.

    It's an oddity Mr D.

    The conservatives seem to be taking the G Brown mantra of scare the voters as their leitmotif for 2015. It won't work.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    Why would they be laughing about the prospect of losing seats like Rotherham and Great Grimsby to UKIP? A UKIP win in Clacton would make that much more likely.
    I don't think they will lose those seat's. In 2010 we saw how Labour voters held their nose and turned out for Gordon Brown. All the many posts on here (including some from me) talking about Labour meltdowns, etc... Came to nothing whatsoever.

    If 2010 proved anything it is that Labour voters turn out what it counts.

    Today is a gift for Labour and a disaster for the Right in general.

    Maybe but we saw in Newark that the Labour vote actually went down compared to their 2010 disaster.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014

    Speedy said:

    People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.

    People of sense want to be able to fight successfully for those principles. A very good way of doing that, if you are concerned about civil liberties for example, would be to become Home Secretary - the best possible position in the entire country to achieve something effective in line with your principles. Of course that opportunity is open only to a tiny number of people. One of those rare people was David Davis, who deliberately threw the opportunity away. 'Bonkers' hardly begins to cover it, principles or no principles.
    Then why David Davies was not allowed to become Home Secretary if he is the right man for the job as you say?
    "No fight no right" is crystal clear while talk of sense and sensibility is not a value, its just hot air.

    Why take the Shaun Wright road of "lessons have being learned" when you can do the right thing.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    We have been let down and betrayed. What a sad state of affairs.

    When you consider what has happened, the self control of the British people is absolutely extraordinary.

    Not one incident.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,137
    Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    The union was bought and paid for by bribery and corruption. It was never the settled will of anyone.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    Emma, who was a virgin at the time, recalled: “I told him I was cold so he put his arms around me and said he’d warm me up.

    "He then dragged me round the corner and was on top of me taking my clothes off. There was another man too holding my arms behind my head.

    "Then all these other men came out of nowhere. Two were holding my friend, forcing her eyes open and making her watch.


    People need to rot in jail for this.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.

    The pig faced landowner. Classic Brownite
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,308
    edited August 2014

    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Extraordinary. An honest politician.
    But what use is an honest politician who has no power - and no prospect of power?
    That is not what you should be asking. The question is what use is a powerful politician with no honesty or principles?

    Actually maybe you don't need to ask that. We see the consequences of that in Parliament every day.
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    As a pro-European Clarkite in the Blue team, if all the headbangers on Europe would either now like to move to UKIP or just shut up and wait for the referendum that would be fine with me.

    We need the orange bookers to come in to the blue tent in their place as far as I'm concerned.

    Joe Public don't really bother re Europe and yet so many Tory people think that is all that matters... it' s made me vote liberal before and could do again, it also means I'll never vote UKIP of course.

    Mind you here in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Bercow, I haven't a choice anyway.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Speedy said:

    Then why David Davies was not allowed to become Home Secretary if he is the right man for the job as you say?.

    I didn't say he was the right man for the job. Clearly he wasn't, in retrospect. However, the reason he didn't become Home Scretary was that he resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. It was entirely his choice.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
    Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,151
    edited August 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Socrates said:

    Clip of Mr Carswell's speech. (YouTube)

    http://youtu.be/HMgEIsEAdmg

    What an excellent speech. He properly skewered the Tories on the supposed Great Freedom bill, on primary elections, on recall elections and on the EU.
    Yeah, but the idea Farage wouldn't be any more self-serving if he got a sniff of power is laughable.

    I do think Carswell is a decent chap. He's a maverick and a truly independent MP. There will be plenty of trouble ahead between him and Farage, I'm sure.

    But all he's achieved is to help the ultimate Westminster (and EU) wonk - Ed Milliband - Into power next year.

    Time to change the electoral system, then.
    If Labour get's in with a majority on say 33% (looks increasingly likey with UKIP's antics) I think FPTP will be unsustainable even for the Tories.

    As you know, I was very open to voting for AV, but in the end didn't think YES sold the case properly that time. But I'm most certainly open to be persuaded...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,364
    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449

    As a pro-European Clarkite in the Blue team,

    I didn't realise there were many of you left in the Blue team. Excellent -always good to have a wide range within a party.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    I think the chances of scotland voting YES because Douglas Carswell has gone to UKIP are fairly close to absolute zero.
    The only thing that will do is knock out one the SNP's prime weapons of "the Tories are going to win the next election, so vote YES".
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    Worth remembering what happened when Brown tried to split the Tories by briefing that he was going to go for that early Autumn GE, and how that trip to Iraq during the Tory Conference backfired. Also, where does Farage, UKIP and Carswell go in the run up to the next GE if their stunt totally backfires and enough voters in this constituency turn out to say No Thanks to a UKIP MP?

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.
    I suspect trhe Scottish ones won't be, and only Scots can vote.

    I'd have thought keeping Cameron low-key would be a help rather than a hindrance.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,137
    Mr. Woolie, shade unfair on pigs. They're wonderful animals! Bacon, gammon, pork, ham, all from one splendid beast.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham, is that the flames of anger, revulsion and revolution end up spiralling out of control

    Lol
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    But according to the report, the £115,000-a-year director of children's services told a meeting that 'agencies need to retain a sense of proportionality' because those offences 'only account for 2.3 per cent of the council's safe-guarding work'.

    Mrs Thacker is the same director who removed three children from their foster parents because they voted Ukip.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736136/We-won-t-blame-1-400-young-girls-abused-rapists-loose-officials-charge-Rotherham-abuse-scandal-continue-pass-buck.html
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,449
    An...interesting take on things from the Daily Mash,

    The Tory MP who defected to UKIP has asked when he gets his free golliwog.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/can-i-have-my-free-golliwog-now-asks-carswell-2014082889983

    I quite like the Daily Mash, not lease because sometimes it seems to actually try some humour from the right, as well as the standard left, but they sure don't seem to like UKIP much.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Mr. Brooke, indeed, although worth recalling the blues suffered a defection before the 2010 General Election as well.

    But only briefly.
    Plus Ukip where not polling in the teens though and Bob Spink today would probably win Castle Point if he ran with UKIP, heck UKIP might win Castle Point without Bob Spink.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,137
    Miss Fitalass, I suspect Carswell will win, and that will be a big boost to UKIP.

    But if he doesn't, it could be a deathblow to their hopes for 2015.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,338
    edited August 2014
    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.

    So they can turn up mob handed to Cliff Richard but can't pick up anyone on their doorstep ?

    Maybe they're not using their resources correctly.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,364
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.

    The Establishment are in acute difficulty.

    Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
    And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
    I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
    Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.

    So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.

    And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.

    Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.
    Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
    The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.

    All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.

    Read up on your economic history.
    There was a big recession under Harold Wilson, in 1974-5.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?
    Here's one of them on the streets... He's been let out after 3 1/2 years

    He'd be better off inside I would think, now his picture is in the papers

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736183/This-insult-14-000-victims-one-five-men-jailed-sex-abuse-free-police-told-hundreds-gang-members.html
This discussion has been closed.