Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.
A quick 'voodoo poll' spin through the comment sections of DT, Guardian, Guido, Spectator etc suggests that Carswell will walk the by-election. By a country mile.
If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!
I go there a lot for a day out on the beach, but it's the most dreadfully sleepy place the rest of the time for younger people like me.
We went to clacton on holiday a lot when I was a kid, Highfield holiday park no less!
We wen to Frinton beach one day and when I went to get an ice cream from the high street there was a bank robbery taking place!
Would have been circa 1984
you'll like this @Hugh. We drove down there in my dads mk3 Capri and it broke down on the a12 #makinitup #wewenttotuscanyreally
What movement will there ever be on EU immigration? Even German proposals to limit jobless immigrants to 6 months have been met with derision by the EU today, what hope does the UK have of reforming the idiotic free movement of labour rules?
Very little (other than at the margins dealing with the Benefits issue).
However, why on earth are people so naive as to think that voting UKIP helps with this? The only likely outcome is a Labour government, which is hardly going to help reform, is it? And even if we get a referendum (now looking more unlikely) and that leads to Brexit, why on earth would anyone automatically suppose that Britain would be able to negotiate a deal with our EU frieds that wouldn't include free movement of labour?
We are where we are (thanks, Tony and Gordon). Tilting at windmills won't make the problem go away.
Because (a) some of us are capable of a long term strategy for this country beyond the next parliament and (b) the EU has several free trade deals that do not include free movement of labour.
Incidentally, why are you blaming Tony and Gordon for free movement of labour from poor Eastern states? They are to blame for many things, but not this.
I think you described UKIP as a party as principled earlier (apologies if it was someone else). I have to say, although as people - and certainly in Carswell's case - that's right, I find it difficult as a moniker given the situation surrounding the 2010 manifesto. Essentially in the last few years much UKIP policy has seemingly been rewritten and I have little confidence that, outside the narrow EU part, it would stay the same past 2015.
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
Hmm.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.
I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.
No Miss P.
Labour were currently wriggling nicely on a hook of their own making.
Waiting a week wouldn't have made much difference to the impact of the announcement.
Quite. Carswell has done those violated by the largely Pakistani child abusers in Rotherham no favours, and knocked those who let them get away with it off the front pages. Silly timing.
You're really getting desperate, aren't you?
Strange. You've been very excitable about Rotherham since the story broke.
I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.
Presumably the writ cannot be moved while the House is in recess. Have we ever had a by-election in the party conference season? That would seem odd. Perhaps 16th October will be the date?
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
I believe taffy is another switcher. But, yes, you're right. With the possible exception of SeanT, I don't think any of us have extreme views that would have scared off the centre-right. A roll back of the Big Brother state, a clear and strong stance on what they want repatriated from Brussels and proper action on immigration (or at least the backing of measures that the Lib Dems have to publicly block) would have been enough to keep us all on board, I imagine. And I can't see any of those things scaring off the "centre".
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
Hmm.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.
I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.
No Miss P.
Labour were currently wriggling nicely on a hook of their own making.
Waiting a week wouldn't have made much difference to the impact of the announcement.
Quite. Carswell has done those violated by the largely Pakistani child abusers in Rotherham no favours, and knocked those who let them get away with it off the front pages. Silly timing.
You're really getting desperate, aren't you?
Strange. You've been very excitable about Rotherham since the story broke.
I haven't been excitable, I've been appalled. The Rotherham story will roll on and on and get the attention it deserves. The press can handle more than one story at once.
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!
I go there a lot for a day out on the beach, but it's the most dreadfully sleepy place the rest of the time for younger people like me.
We went to clacton on holiday a lot when I was a kid, Highfield holiday park no less!
We wen to Frinton beach one day and when I went to get an ice cream from the high street there was a bank robbery taking place!
Would have been circa 1984
you'll like this @Hugh. We drove down there in my dads mk3 Capri and it broke down on the a12 #makinitup #wewenttotuscanyreally
A bank robbery? In Frinton? Are you sure it wasn’t the new pub being broken up? That was quite an exciting moment in the town’s history! And about then.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I think that there are parts of the country where UKIP have a better chance of beating Labour than the Conservatives have. Both by taking votes from Labour, and by uniting the non-Labour vote to support them tactically.
I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.
Presumably the writ cannot be moved while the House is in recess. Have we ever had a by-election in the party conference season? That would seem odd. Perhaps 16th October will be the date?
As I suspected 25th September is not possible, 2nd October is the first available date.
It's easy to over-react to events like this and I may have a different view in a couple of hours, but my immediate reaction is that this is an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives and potentially an epochal moment in British politics. Carswell will hold Clacton comfortably through a combination of usual by election dynamics, personal vote, genuine Ukip support and Labour voters voting tactically. If he wins, and particularly if others from either main party follow his lead, Ukip will gain significant credibility. They will be impossible to ignore in the leader debates - if they are not already - and Farage's outside status in contrast to the three establishment leaders will stand him in good stead with a disillusioned electorate, particularly as economic storm clouds gather.
Also, Carswell's move will inevitably mark a shift in Ukip's positioning, or perhaps perception, back to being more of a "right of Conservative" party. That might mitigate the trend we have been seeing of working class Labour voters defecting to Ukip, as they start to appreciate that Ukip is unlikely to become a statist, working class party. It may be that Ukip's position on immigration and anti-establishment stance is sufficient to maintain its present, broader appeal, but I think on balance this move is more likely to benefit Labour, even leaving aside the damage it will do to the Conservatives.
Finally, it will weaken David Cameron and mean that he is even more vulnerable in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland. A significant part of the parliamentary party has never really accepted Cameron, and he has not done enough to build relationships with them. Losing an MP to Ukip and the Union will not be readily forgiven. He should survive, but he will be weakened and it is hard to see the Tories establishing the unity and shared vision they need to win the general election.
I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.
Presumably the writ cannot be moved while the House is in recess. Have we ever had a by-election in the party conference season? That would seem odd. Perhaps 16th October will be the date?
As I suspected 25th September is not possible, 2nd October is the first available date.
So the pensioners get to go out on a cold wet Thursday.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I think that there are parts of the country where UKIP have a better chance of beating Labour than the Conservatives have. Both by taking votes from Labour, and by uniting the non-Labour vote to support them tactically.
Yes across large chunks of the North and WWC south.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
No, it isn't. Farage continually makes 'offers' he knows damn well won't wash. I suspect he desires the demise of Conservatism and is prepared to see the country wrecked economically and enslaved by Europe to achieve it and take his place as King Naysayer. Once he gets serious about stopping Miliband and the disgusting left, then the parties can talk.
Trust me to be away when the big news breaks. Welcome to UKIP Douglas Carswell.
Congratulations.
I remember what a huge boost it was for morale within the SNP when the Labour MP for Dunfermline West, Dick Douglas, defected to our party in 1990. We were absolutely delighted.
We had several MPs in 1990, so he was just adding to our numbers, but in your case getting off the big fat zero is a vast step.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I think that there are parts of the country where UKIP have a better chance of beating Labour than the Conservatives have. Both by taking votes from Labour, and by uniting the non-Labour vote to support them tactically.
I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.
Presumably the writ cannot be moved while the House is in recess. Have we ever had a by-election in the party conference season? That would seem odd. Perhaps 16th October will be the date?
As I suspected 25th September is not possible, 2nd October is the first available date.
So the pensioners get to go out on a cold wet Thursday.
They can pick a dry day, sometime before, to go to the post box.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
dyedwoolie - the problem is twofold: (1) we don't feel the Conservatives are sufficiently different to Labour anymore for that argument to be potent with us (2) Cameron and his advisors have held natural Conservatives beneath contempt.
When you combine them, you at best get a "meh, don't care anymore" (me) and at worst you get outright defectors to UKIP (Sean Fear/Socrates)
I'm not particularly proud of myself, as I'm basically doing nothing apart from betting to make money and raging to friends, because I just feel politically depressed and rejected.
(PS. To put it in context, I was (until 2011) an active Tory party member since 18 years old, ran a university conservative association for several years and was asked about getting my name on the candidates list. )
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!
I go there a lot for a day out on the beach, but it's the most dreadfully sleepy place the rest of the time for younger people like me.
We went to clacton on holiday a lot when I was a kid, Highfield holiday park no less!
We wen to Frinton beach one day and when I went to get an ice cream from the high street there was a bank robbery taking place!
Would have been circa 1984
you'll like this @Hugh. We drove down there in my dads mk3 Capri and it broke down on the a12 #makinitup #wewenttotuscanyreally
A bank robbery? In Frinton? Are you sure it wasn’t the new pub being broken up? That was quite an exciting moment in the town’s history! And about then.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
How do you work that out ?
I can't see how the party 3 times UKIP's size is the splinter group.
By the way, there's still time for Boris to withdraw from Uxbridge and stand in Clacton instead. How about that for a dramatic High Noon event?
As for the Indyref, I can't see the prospect of a future by-election in Clacton moving a single vote.
The last thread was broadly speaking asking the question why it was that UK media organisations were not paying for Independence Referendum opinion polls.
I would be very surprised if we do not have an opinion poll on this forthcoming by-election quite soon.
If the London media make it clear to Scotland that they are more interested in a by-election in Clacton then the Independence Referendum, well, it's quite obvious what the result of that will be.
Also, Carswell's move will inevitably mark a shift in Ukip's positioning, or perhaps perception, back to being more of a "right of Conservative" party. That might mitigate the trend we have been seeing of working class Labour voters defecting to Ukip, as they start to appreciate that Ukip is unlikely to become a statist, working class party.
Mr Carswell's political line has always been for an increase in Direct Democracy, rather than Big Government/Small Government.
Increased democratic accountability of State power can attract Labour supporters, just as easily as Conservative supporters.
This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!
It does make an indyref YES more likely, so it's dreadful news for David Cameron. He will surely have to resign if the dissolution of the Union occurs under his watch.
Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.
A quick 'voodoo poll' spin through the comment sections of DT, Guardian, Guido, Spectator etc suggests that Carswell will walk the by-election. By a country mile.
Yes, but is that based upon anything? Do UKIP have any base in Clacton?
I admit to having done zero research. I just want to see some evidence before I feel equally excited.
He's a maverick oddball but that won't necessarily preclude him from winning. The notion that he is being honourable in resigning is nonsense: he is doing it to try and win for maximum publicity and damage to the Conservatives.
It's not great news for the Conservatives, unless they win. Carswell had better be squeaky clean because this will be warfare. No-one likes a defector.
It would be funny if Boris decided to stand against him ...
Trust me to be away when the big news breaks. Welcome to UKIP Douglas Carswell.
We had several MPs in 1990, so he was just adding to our numbers, but in your case getting off the big fat zero is a vast step.
No question. Even now, there may be significant numbers of people who really want to vote UKIP, who are intending to vote UKIP, but on the day might be put off when they consider their candidate cannot win, and perhaps they should try to back the least worst candidate, that their vote might otherwise be waste, or even counterproductive. The UKIP vote seems like it would have firmed up better than happened in 2010 after their success in the Euros, but it will still be a concern, and having an MP already in the House standing for re-election, having won a by-election, shows that UKIP can win, so there is much less fear about 'wasting' a vote. After all, perhaps even in an unlikely area, UKIP could surge to a win. A potential gamechanger.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Of course, if Farage were really cunning he'd have a Labour defection in hand for next week
Why on earth would anybody want to defect from the party that is now almost certainly going to form the next government (Labour) to a bunch of no-hopers like UKIP?
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
dyedwoolie - the problem is twofold: (1) we don't feel the Conservatives are sufficiently different to Labour anymore for that argument to be potent with us (2) Cameron and his advisors have held natural Conservatives beneath contempt.
When you combine them, you at best get a "meh, don't care anymore" (me) and at worst you get outright defectors to UKIP (Sean Fear/Socrates)
I'm not particularly proud of myself, as I'm basically doing nothing apart from betting to make money and raging to friends, because I just feel politically depressed and rejected.
(PS. To put it in context, I was (until 2011) an active Tory party member since 18 years old, ran a university conservative association for several years and was asked about getting my name on the candidates list. )
I find Cameron's effete nature rather hard to stomach, and the failure on immigration is a hammer blow, but for me everything but everything is about stopping Labour in 2015. 2020 will be too late.
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!
I go there a lot for a day out on the beach, but it's the most dreadfully sleepy place the rest of the time for younger people like me.
We went to clacton on holiday a lot when I was a kid, Highfield holiday park no less!
We wen to Frinton beach one day and when I went to get an ice cream from the high street there was a bank robbery taking place!
Would have been circa 1984
you'll like this @Hugh. We drove down there in my dads mk3 Capri and it broke down on the a12 #makinitup #wewenttotuscanyreally
A bank robbery? In Frinton? Are you sure it wasn’t the new pub being broken up? That was quite an exciting moment in the town’s history! And about then.
Yes; life was very difficult for me then, so that must be why it’s not in the memory bank. Although at the time I was visiting Clacton quite regularly on business.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
Cameron lost me, then won me back and I joined the Party. I'm irritated by some of the short-sightedness of UKIP - but they've stirred up things that needed to be stirred up.
If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
An interesting point. Carswell's defection really is one of those things that is probably bad for all the other parties at once. The Tories are once again in chaos, particularly if he wins, their faultlines open as many will probably barely hide their hope that Carswell wins; Labour hardly want people to think UKIP is not a wasted vote - while the Tories will probably suffer most, best not to place more Labour seats at risk. And if the LDs, well, things cannot get much worse, but at some point UKIP taking votes from everyone includes them too.
Of course, if Farage were really cunning he'd have a Labour defection in hand for next week
Why on earth would anybody want to defect from the party that is now almost certainly going to form the next government (Labour) to a bunch of no-hopers like UKIP?
The Labour Party has no members or supporters with principles to switch, they are just a big, wet sponge soaking up State junkies.
Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.
A quick 'voodoo poll' spin through the comment sections of DT, Guardian, Guido, Spectator etc suggests that Carswell will walk the by-election. By a country mile.
Yes, but is that based upon anything? Do UKIP have any base in Clacton?
I admit to having done zero research. I just want to see some evidence before I feel equally excited.
Of course, if Farage were really cunning he'd have a Labour defection in hand for next week
Why on earth would anybody want to defect from the party that is now almost certainly going to form the next government (Labour) to a bunch of no-hopers like UKIP?
I'm near certain the Conservatives will win outright. Come the spring the wanderers will return to the fold. Money always talks and the Conservatives have started to fix Labour's mess.
Of course, if Farage were really cunning he'd have a Labour defection in hand for next week
Why on earth would anybody want to defect from the party that is now almost certainly going to form the next government (Labour) to a bunch of no-hopers like UKIP?
I think Labour will win a majority, but if there are some waverers who think the Tories will win a plurality if nothing else (though why they would think that astounds me, even with Labour's weaknesses), and Labour just isn't working for them anymore - that they personally are at risk - then it might be worth taking the plunge.
But given how many Tory MPs seem like they want to be UKIP but it took until now for oen to risk it, and how much fewer Labour MPs are, at least openly, making such noises, I doubt Farage has one ready to such a move. But they have surprised us before.
Thrasher on Sky reckons Carswell will hold Clacton, and wonders whether this is only the first in a choreographed series of defections that UKIP have been planning...
Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.
A quick 'voodoo poll' spin through the comment sections of DT, Guardian, Guido, Spectator etc suggests that Carswell will walk the by-election. By a country mile.
Yes, but is that based upon anything? Do UKIP have any base in Clacton?
I admit to having done zero research. I just want to see some evidence before I feel equally excited.
They hold two County Council Divisions in Tendring. They topped the poll in the Euros by 10,000.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
dyedwoolie - the problem is twofold: (1) we don't feel the Conservatives are sufficiently different to Labour anymore for that argument to be potent with us (2) Cameron and his advisors have held natural Conservatives beneath contempt.
When you combine them, you at best get a "meh, don't care anymore" (me) and at worst you get outright defectors to UKIP (Sean Fear/Socrates)
I'm not particularly proud of myself, as I'm basically doing nothing apart from betting to make money and raging to friends, because I just feel politically depressed and rejected.
(PS. To put it in context, I was (until 2011) an active Tory party member since 18 years old, ran a university conservative association for several years and was asked about getting my name on the candidates list. )
I find Cameron's effete nature rather hard to stomach, and the failure on immigration is a hammer blow, but for me everything but everything is about stopping Labour in 2015. 2020 will be too late.
I think 2010 was too late. The coalition have stabilised the public finances, but I think Labour will have little choice but to continue with this post 2015.
They will become unpopular very quickly. We will get a major political realignment in the next 10-15 years.
If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
An interesting point. Carswell's defection really is one of those things that is probably bad for all the other parties at once. The Tories are once again in chaos, particularly if he wins, their faultlines open as many will probably barely hide their hope that Carswell wins; Labour hardly want people to think UKIP is not a wasted vote - while the Tories will probably suffer most, best not to place more Labour seats at risk. And if the LDs, well, things cannot get much worse, but at some point UKIP taking votes from everyone includes them too.
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.
Thrasher on Sky reckons Carswell will hold Clacton, and wonders whether this is only the first in a choreographed series of defections that UKIP have been planning...
Mr Carswell, who was an early supporter of Mr Cameron when he was bidding for the party leadership, said he had not spoken to the prime minister before announcing his decision.
How extraordinarily discourteous of him.
It will be interesting to see how he fits in to UKIP. He's definitely his own man, and has a range of strong views which don't really fit into any party. He's not really a 'right-winger', more a libertarian, although it's hard to pigeon-hole him.
He's a maverick oddball but that won't necessarily preclude him from winning. The notion that he is being honourable in resigning is nonsense: he is doing it to try and win for maximum publicity and damage to the Conservatives. .
I don't see that it cannot be both. Resigning is the honourable thing to do, and it is true the damage to his former colleagues will be magnified if he can manage a win now, rather than hope to do so in 2015. The mere fact that, unlike some of his colleagues who seem to struggle to defend why they are still conservative, given their views(Hannan I like a lot, but his recent explanation on the matter made his loyalty to the Tories seem awfully tenuous and conditional, which seems fine for a normal voter, but a party probably expects its members to be a bit more passionate), he has take this decision is pretty honourable, even if he would probably not have done it if he did not think he would win. We cannot know that for certain.
That was my first thought too. Not too late to withdraw from Uxbridge...your party needs YOU!
I'd be very surprised that Boris would stand in Clacton and risk defeat.
I know and it won't happen...I wouldn't be surprised if pressure won't be put on Dan Hannam to stand.
Thats a different matter JO, however are you sure that Dan Hannan won't be next to defect?
Mike, I've an inkling (and it's no more than that) that there will be another defection, in which case Hannan would be a likely suspect.
You must be tickled pink!
Hannan has said repeatedly in his Telegraph blog that he isn't supporting UKIP because the only way you can get a referendum is through the Conservatives.
He's also lambasted UKIP for moving away from the referendum and on to ground like education, taxation, etc...
He would look kind of ridiculous is he defected to UKIP now, but who knows. The "Right" generally isn't fit to govern and hasn't been since 1990.
Think I've moved significantly back towards the Labour column for 2015 today.
Thanks Gin, but I have a duty to my reader to retail any information I have which may have implications for betting on politics.
I hear that a further xfer from the Tories may be on the cards, in which case Hannan would be an obvious candidate. Your points are noted, with thanks, but as a punter I have to keep my mind and my options open.
You don't bet the house on the rumour, but if I hear any corroborating information, and it fits a pattern, and it makes sense....
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
Cameron was too weak in dealing with the Lib Dems and his ministers too weak to stand up against civil servants pushing the agenda of the previous lot at the Home Office. That's how he lost me. Dave needed to be much more forthright with the Lib Dems once he got into Number 10 and to tell the spooks and Home Office scaremongers to do one. There was a time when the Tories were on 36-38 in the polls with the Lib Dems down on 12-14 and yet Dave was still too weak to tell dictate terms to Clegg and co.
Thrasher on Sky reckons Carswell will hold Clacton, and wonders whether this is only the first in a choreographed series of defections that UKIP have been planning...
Yes, Peter Bone springs to mind.
He too has been on Radio 5, talking about sticking with the Tories and explaining why.
I saw someone make a comment that Carswell was a maverick.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.
Mr Carswell, who was an early supporter of Mr Cameron when he was bidding for the party leadership, said he had not spoken to the prime minister before announcing his decision.
How extraordinarily discourteous of him.
It will be interesting to see how he fits in to UKIP. He's definitely his own man, and has a range of strong views which don't really fit into any party. He's not really a 'right-winger', more a libertarian, although it's hard to pigeon-hole him.
"How extraordinarily discourteous of him"
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
An interesting point. Carswell's defection really is one of those things that is probably bad for all the other parties at once. The Tories are once again in chaos, particularly if he wins, their faultlines open as many will probably barely hide their hope that Carswell wins; Labour hardly want people to think UKIP is not a wasted vote - while the Tories will probably suffer most, best not to place more Labour seats at risk. And if the LDs, well, things cannot get much worse, but at some point UKIP taking votes from everyone includes them too.
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.
UKIP do still struggle with the right wing label. Sometimes it seems like they are focused on being Tory-Hard (the opposite of LDs being Labour-lite), and others dismissing the idea of being rightwing at all, aiming for something purely transformative, which as much as I think the left-right split is mostly nonsense, is hard to pull off. I would guess they will try for a bit longer at least to be all things to all people, and hope for the angry and disaffected to push them over the winning margin. UKIP are winning more support in Labour areas, so the label is clearly not putting all of them off, and so while it is still harder for UKIP to hurt them, they still could.
Mr Carswell, who was an early supporter of Mr Cameron when he was bidding for the party leadership, said he had not spoken to the prime minister before announcing his decision.
How extraordinarily discourteous of him.
It will be interesting to see how he fits in to UKIP. He's definitely his own man, and has a range of strong views which don't really fit into any party. He's not really a 'right-winger', more a libertarian, although it's hard to pigeon-hole him.
"How extraordinarily discourteous of him"
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
( apart from f*ing stupid )
It was obviously difficult for Cameron to personally address thousands of fruitcakes.
Of course, if Farage were really cunning he'd have a Labour defection in hand for next week
Why on earth would anybody want to defect from the party that is now almost certainly going to form the next government (Labour) to a bunch of no-hopers like UKIP?
I'm near certain the Conservatives will win outright. Come the spring the wanderers will return to the fold. Money always talks and the Conservatives have started to fix Labour's mess.
If only everyone voting UKIP had wandered from the Conservatives perhaps that might happen, but many did not. They will not automatically return to anyone, let alone the Tories.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
Also, Carswell's move will inevitably mark a shift in Ukip's positioning, or perhaps perception, back to being more of a "right of Conservative" party. That might mitigate the trend we have been seeing of working class Labour voters defecting to Ukip, as they start to appreciate that Ukip is unlikely to become a statist, working class party. It may be that Ukip's position on immigration and anti-establishment stance is sufficient to maintain its present, broader appeal, but I think on balance this move is more likely to benefit Labour, even leaving aside the damage it will do to the Conservatives.
The average of the last three YouGov polls has UKIP support coming from the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems in these percentages (of their 2010 vote).
17 : 6 : 10
It will be interesting to see if that shifts. [Incidentally, the last three polls have a net direct Labour to Tory swing when you average them out].
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
Even if they didn't, I'd imagine Carswell will take a decent chunk of the local Conservative association with him.
I am pleased that Carwell has had the courage of his convictions and resigned his seat to fight a by-election. It si the right thing to do in such circumstances.
From the UKIP perspective it is a gamble though. If Carswell wins it will be a massive boost to the party. If he loses it will make winning any seats at next years GE significantly harder. UKIP really need to throw everything at this, but, though it is getting better, its constituency organisation is still run on a shoe string and is not of the most professional; enthusiastic amateurs might be the best description. Yet that need not be fatal.
I expect I will join Sean_F, Isam and MikeK in spending time in Clacton next month. I would hope that the Party put out a calling all hands request, they will need them.
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs. Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.
"Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind."
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
As for your list: that is things you want and are projecting on UKIP. I see little talk or policies from UKIP to match many of those: for instance, go back to the 2010 GE or 2012 EU manifestos and point them out to me, and how they would be realised.
I am not a "Tory old guard" in any way, shape or form. Look at my previous posts involving phrases like "I vote for candidate not party", "I cannot vote for my local Tory MP", and the classic "I could not vote for Boris if he stood in my constituency."
"There are very few MPs I admire more than Douglas Carswell. He is principled, decent, and has gone into politics for all the right reasons. He believes in all the things to which ordinary politicians pay lip service, but in reality frighten them to death"
If they were concerned about British news cycles (which of course they aren't), Russia certainly picked the right day to be more obvious about involvement in Ukraine. Seems fairly inevitable, with no will or resources to prevent it.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
Just like Miliband's 'wheezing and gasping' target.
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
Funny. Bit like Miliband's 'wheezing and gasping' target.
He has to wheeze and gasp to reduce himself to that point. The Tories are struggling to even get to that point.
I don't think this will be a series a defections. I've always liked Douglas Carswell and he had some good ideas surrounding direct democracy (one of which was elections Police Commissioners interestingly enough). I believe he is very intense and that is what has led him to defect. He does consider issues on a case by case basis and if UKIP do plan to have a proper policy platform, he will speak out if he disagrees. An example is HS2 where I do not believe he signed up to oppose.
I find all these UKIP defections strange because the thinking seems to be that Cameron is going to be leader forever. Even if he wins next year, its doubtful he would want to do a full term.
As for your list: that is things you want and are projecting on UKIP. I see little talk or policies from UKIP to match many of those: for instance, go back to the 2010 GE or 2012 EU manifestos and point them out to me, and how they would be realised.
Precisely so.
The support for UKIP is very much like the Cleggasm in that respect. Of course it wouldn't survive contact with reality, when you actually need to start making decisions.
A fine example is economic policy. Douglas Carswell is a strong advocate of getting the public finances under control faster even than Osborne has been doing. He's just joined a party which is moving sharply leftwards:
I don't think this will be a series a defections. I've always liked Douglas Carswell and he had some good ideas surrounding direct democracy (one of which was elections Police Commissioners interestingly enough). I believe he is very intense and that is what has led him to defect. He does consider issues on a case by case basis and if UKIP do plan to have a proper policy platform, he will speak out if he disagrees. An example is HS2 where I do not believe he signed up to oppose.
I find all these UKIP defections strange because the thinking seems to be that Cameron is going to be leader forever. Even if he wins next year, its doubtful he would want to do a full term.
I would guess that the thinking is that for one he probably won't be leader next year because he will lose, and even if he wins and then leaves part way through the term, the next leader would be of the same vein
From the UKIP perspective it is a gamble though. If Carswell wins it will be a massive boost to the party. If he loses it will make winning any seats at next years GE significantly harder.
Losing it would certainly make things harder for them but realistically if they can't win a seat with excellent demographics, and a popular incumbent, personally advocating things that were in the Tory manifesto but Cameron didn't deliver, in a by-election, they weren't going to win any seats in 2015 in any case.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
No, the reality hasn't changed. Of course, the result may be disastrous for the country. That's up to voters. If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it.
Comments
We wen to Frinton beach one day and when I went to get an ice cream from the high street there was a bank robbery taking place!
Would have been circa 1984
you'll like this @Hugh. We drove down there in my dads mk3 Capri and it broke down on the a12 #makinitup #wewenttotuscanyreally
Will he cross the floor or stay on the government side?
Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
Clacton is 97.2% white compared to 96.8% in Newark.
Also, Carswell's move will inevitably mark a shift in Ukip's positioning, or perhaps perception, back to being more of a "right of Conservative" party. That might mitigate the trend we have been seeing of working class Labour voters defecting to Ukip, as they start to appreciate that Ukip is unlikely to become a statist, working class party. It may be that Ukip's position on immigration and anti-establishment stance is sufficient to maintain its present, broader appeal, but I think on balance this move is more likely to benefit Labour, even leaving aside the damage it will do to the Conservatives.
Finally, it will weaken David Cameron and mean that he is even more vulnerable in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland. A significant part of the parliamentary party has never really accepted Cameron, and he has not done enough to build relationships with them. Losing an MP to Ukip and the Union will not be readily forgiven. He should survive, but he will be weakened and it is hard to see the Tories establishing the unity and shared vision they need to win the general election.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/28/uk-net-migration-soars-to-243000-theresa-may
Once he gets serious about stopping Miliband and the disgusting left, then the parties can talk.
I remember what a huge boost it was for morale within the SNP when the Labour MP for Dunfermline West, Dick Douglas, defected to our party in 1990. We were absolutely delighted.
We had several MPs in 1990, so he was just adding to our numbers, but in your case getting off the big fat zero is a vast step.
When you combine them, you at best get a "meh, don't care anymore" (me) and at worst you get outright defectors to UKIP (Sean Fear/Socrates)
I'm not particularly proud of myself, as I'm basically doing nothing apart from betting to make money and raging to friends, because I just feel politically depressed and rejected.
(PS. To put it in context, I was (until 2011) an active Tory party member since 18 years old, ran a university conservative association for several years and was asked about getting my name on the candidates list. )
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Brian_Bishop
I can't see how the party 3 times UKIP's size is the splinter group.
I would be very surprised if we do not have an opinion poll on this forthcoming by-election quite soon.
If the London media make it clear to Scotland that they are more interested in a by-election in Clacton then the Independence Referendum, well, it's quite obvious what the result of that will be.
Increased democratic accountability of State power can attract Labour supporters, just as easily as Conservative supporters.
I admit to having done zero research. I just want to see some evidence before I feel equally excited.
It's not great news for the Conservatives, unless they win. Carswell had better be squeaky clean because this will be warfare. No-one likes a defector.
It would be funny if Boris decided to stand against him ...
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
Presumably it is constrained by the MP's actual day of resignation.
I note Yougov have adjusted their weighting for UKIP...
Here is the thing, UKIP's raw figures always outperform their weighted adjustments.
Even allowing for (Fairly substantial UKIP -> Con drift)
Anyone on UKIP 0-5% has definitely done their money.
http://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/council/elections-voting/european-elections-22-may-2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904
This was clearly a very difficult decision for him to make. He must have spent weeks (months?) wrestling with his loyalties and conscience on it.
But given how many Tory MPs seem like they want to be UKIP but it took until now for oen to risk it, and how much fewer Labour MPs are, at least openly, making such noises, I doubt Farage has one ready to such a move. But they have surprised us before.
"All three of the parties are run by those who became MPs by working in the offices of MPs."
"Politics to them is a game. It's a game of spin. Of positioning."
"They seek every great office but they believe in so very little."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904
They will become unpopular very quickly. We will get a major political realignment in the next 10-15 years.
How extraordinarily discourteous of him.
It will be interesting to see how he fits in to UKIP. He's definitely his own man, and has a range of strong views which don't really fit into any party. He's not really a 'right-winger', more a libertarian, although it's hard to pigeon-hole him.
I hear that a further xfer from the Tories may be on the cards, in which case Hannan would be an obvious candidate. Your points are noted, with thanks, but as a punter I have to keep my mind and my options open.
You don't bet the house on the rumour, but if I hear any corroborating information, and it fits a pattern, and it makes sense....
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
How times change.
whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
( apart from f*ing stupid )
17 : 6 : 10
It will be interesting to see if that shifts. [Incidentally, the last three polls have a net direct Labour to Tory swing when you average them out].
From the UKIP perspective it is a gamble though. If Carswell wins it will be a massive boost to the party. If he loses it will make winning any seats at next years GE significantly harder. UKIP really need to throw everything at this, but, though it is getting better, its constituency organisation is still run on a shoe string and is not of the most professional; enthusiastic amateurs might be the best description. Yet that need not be fatal.
I expect I will join Sean_F, Isam and MikeK in spending time in Clacton next month. I would hope that the Party put out a calling all hands request, they will need them.
Everybody has their breaking point. For me it was Osborne's HMRC money confiscation without trial proposals.
I have a feeling Carswell may have written about this himself, in fact, and with the same utter dismay I myself have expressed on here many times.
Its like the commentator says at a football match where one side is pressing for a while and then scores
'you have to say, its been coming'.
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
As for your list: that is things you want and are projecting on UKIP. I see little talk or policies from UKIP to match many of those: for instance, go back to the 2010 GE or 2012 EU manifestos and point them out to me, and how they would be realised.
I am not a "Tory old guard" in any way, shape or form. Look at my previous posts involving phrases like "I vote for candidate not party", "I cannot vote for my local Tory MP", and the classic "I could not vote for Boris if he stood in my constituency."
But that probably makes me a Tory in your mind.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100284247/douglas-carswells-defection-is-a-seismic-shock-to-the-british-political-system/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
UKIP 48%
CON 25%
LAB 13%
LD 2%
OTH 12%
(PS. Thanks Sean Fear)
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
I find all these UKIP defections strange because the thinking seems to be that Cameron is going to be leader forever. Even if he wins next year, its doubtful he would want to do a full term.
The support for UKIP is very much like the Cleggasm in that respect. Of course it wouldn't survive contact with reality, when you actually need to start making decisions.
A fine example is economic policy. Douglas Carswell is a strong advocate of getting the public finances under control faster even than Osborne has been doing. He's just joined a party which is moving sharply leftwards:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/how-ukip-turning-left-economy
UKIP 45
Con 25
Lab 15
LD 5
Oths 10