Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the

123468

Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    Speedy said:

    BenM said:
    Aargh I have a metal detector (with which I have found other metals but no gold so far) but I'm no where near Folkestone.
    I can give you tips though, since the man who buried it is an artist and the whole purpose is for people to dig the beach in order to create some artform, then the gold might be scattered in a pattern.
    But they won't be able to see it is in a pattern before they dig - and that could be anywhere. It'll look like a prairie dog colony ...

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited August 2014
    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.

    Yes, a minor improvement since the cancer of Labour and it's blind eye was removed. Not enough.
  • Rob1909Rob1909 Posts: 18
    edited August 2014

    Soft on kiddy fiddling, soft on the causes of kiddy fiddling

    Kiddies don't vote.
    Guess who Pakistani men vote for?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Woolie, shade unfair on pigs. They're wonderful animals! Bacon, gammon, pork, ham, all from one splendid beast.

    He only had the face, not the meat
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Sean_F said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.

    The Establishment are in acute difficulty.

    Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
    And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
    I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
    Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.

    So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.

    And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.

    Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.
    Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
    The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.

    All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.

    Read up on your economic history.
    There was a big recession under Harold Wilson, in 1974-5.

    Happy to be corrected. Thanks.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Sean_F said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.

    The Establishment are in acute difficulty.

    Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.
    And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?
    I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,
    Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.

    So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.

    And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.

    Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.
    Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
    The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.

    All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.

    Read up on your economic history.
    There was a big recession under Harold Wilson, in 1974-5.

    And despite what BenM says there was no double dip recession in 2011-12.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.
    Yes, a minor improvement since the cancer of Labour and it's blind eye was removed. Not enough.

    And how many of the perpetrators have served time in jail for this? How many of the managers in Rotherham have been disciplined?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    So they can turn up mob handed to Cliff Richard but can't pick up anyone on their doorstep ?

    I really hope Labour goes into the election campaign on that ticket.

    We can;t prosecute Rotherham's 250 plus Pakistani rapists because of funding cuts....

    Meanwhile Keir Starmer, who was DPP under labour at the time these events took place, is starting to admit they got things wrong (according to twitter).

    The rot starts at the top...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    Just to underline the ongoing horror that is Rotherham.

    @TerenceMcleod: @TheresaMay_MP

    As a virgin teenager in Rotherham I was gang raped by Asian men and suffered a mock execution
    http://t.co/XsYNIFy7R6"

    As I say, it is just unspeakable. We have our very own Boko Haram. In the north of England. And the politicians who allowed and encouraged this sit on their fat pensions.

    More concerning 250 rapists on the streets, many of them identifiable and where are the arrests ?
    Here's one of them on the streets... He's been let out after 3 1/2 years

    He'd be better off inside I would think, now his picture is in the papers

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736183/This-insult-14-000-victims-one-five-men-jailed-sex-abuse-free-police-told-hundreds-gang-members.html
    SeanF is right. We need a complete transformation of our system. Our judicial system is clearly not fit for purpose.
  • Paddy Power's latest odds on Boris standing in Clacton by-election:

    Yes ...... 10/1
    No ....... 1/50

    That's sorted then!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Hugh said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham, is that the flames of anger, revulsion and revolution end up spiralling out of control

    Lol

    Yeah, it's hilarious.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?

    Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Bradford.

    You are supporting the party which had no part in turning a blind eye to these horrors.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    @fitalass
    No chance of that with Carswell, he is very popular locally and with reason, example from the guardian:

    "He lived up to his law and order credentials by turning crimefighter in his own constituency in January, breaking the news on Twitter. "Just chased and caught a shoplifter in Clacton … waiting for police." Seven minutes later, he tweeted again: "Police response time pretty effective. Arrested. Now off to my advice surgery." Carswell later explained: "I was in the centre of Clacton going from one constituency appointment to the next as MPs do on a Friday. I heard someone shout and saw someone trying to run away. There was a store detective shouting at them." "


  • Was today the day the Tories lost the 2015 GE?

    Possibly.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Miss Fitalass, I suspect Carswell will win, and that will be a big boost to UKIP.

    But if he doesn't, it could be a deathblow to their hopes for 2015.

    And what will you think if Labour wins? It strikes me if the tories are to win they need a decent candidate who can attract the votes of a wide range of 'stop UKIP' voters
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.
    Yes, a minor improvement since the cancer of Labour and it's blind eye was removed. Not enough.
    And how many of the perpetrators have served time in jail for this? How many of the managers in Rotherham have been disciplined?

    Quite.
  • Rob1909Rob1909 Posts: 18
    We keep being shown councillors on TV news who blocked action in Rotherham.
    They don't say which political party they belong to.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Was today the day the Tories lost the 2015 GE?

    Possibly.

    They'd already almost certainly lost it - this is just trying to bring us to that point even sooner by removing desperate hope.
  • Sean_F said:

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    Perhaps it's time for a new volume of the State Trials?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?

    Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Bradford.

    You are supporting the party which had no part in turning a blind eye to these horrors.
    Yes, reluctantly. Not much is filling me with joy or hope right now.
    Kill Labour, then think again.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
    Quite so, Mr. Woolie You get to the point where, as Mr Brooke reminded us, you cannot distinguish between the pigs and the men. Then You choose.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    People of principles, honour and beliefs have to fight for their principles, honour and beliefs or they don't have any.

    People of sense want to be able to fight successfully for those principles. A very good way of doing that, if you are concerned about civil liberties for example, would be to become Home Secretary - the best possible position in the entire country to achieve something effective in line with your principles. Of course that opportunity is open only to a tiny number of people. One of those rare people was David Davis, who deliberately threw the opportunity away. 'Bonkers' hardly begins to cover it, principles or no principles.
    Then why David Davies was not allowed to become Home Secretary if he is the right man for the job as you say?
    "No fight no right" is crystal clear while talk of sense and sensibility is not a value, its just hot air.

    Why take the Shaun Wright road of "lessons have being learned" when you can do the right thing.
    Davis walked out of the shadow cabinet on a pretext. Lets es not pretend. He was hoping the tories would lose in 2010. His behaviour was disgraceful.
  • Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Yawn, yawn, yawn.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.
    I suspect trhe Scottish ones won't be, and only Scots can vote.

    I'd have thought keeping Cameron low-key would be a help rather than a hindrance.
    Carlotta doesn't get it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?

    Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Bradford.

    You are supporting the party which had no part in turning a blind eye to these horrors.
    chortle

    Cameron hasn't exactly filled the courts has he ? As is quite evident many of the perpetrators are still walking our streets.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Disappointing he jumped ship, very pleased he has the courage of his convictions and triggered the by election. At least he has the moral courage to put his neck on the line.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    Any sign of someone to chair the inquiry into the alleged goings on by politicians yet?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Rob1909 said:

    We keep being shown councillors on TV news who blocked action in Rotherham.
    They don't say which political party they belong to.....

    Are there any Tories in Rotherham?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    As a pro-European Clarkite in the Blue team, if all the headbangers on Europe would either now like to move to UKIP or just shut up and wait for the referendum that would be fine with me.

    We need the orange bookers to come in to the blue tent in their place as far as I'm concerned.

    Joe Public don't really bother re Europe and yet so many Tory people think that is all that matters... it' s made me vote liberal before and could do again, it also means I'll never vote UKIP of course.

    Mind you here in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Bercow, I haven't a choice anyway.

    Are there any orange bookers left?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Paddy Power's latest odds on Boris standing in Clacton by-election:

    Yes ...... 10/1
    No ....... 1/50

    That's sorted then!

    Quite difficult, he is already in for Uxbridge.
    Plus Clacton is not in London and he likes to fight a London seat.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    This has been a very bad day for Cameron and any lingering prospect the Tory party had of an overall majority next year disappear.The predictable response of the Tory party is blind panic,as the message sinks home,followed by endless banging on about Europe.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
    Quite so, Mr. Woolie You get to the point where, as Mr Brooke reminded us, you cannot distinguish between the pigs and the men. Then You choose.
    Mr Nabavi wants me to vote for the lesser of two Evils.

    He doesn't get that I don't want to vote Evil in the first place.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    With the by-election in mind a quick rough comparison between Tendring Council (Clacton is wholly within the boundaries) 2014 Euro election results and Newark's as it was the last Westminster by election that UKIP supposedly had to win. Newark figures in brackets:

    UKIP 48.4% (32.4%)
    Con 25% (31%)
    Lab 13% (21%)
    Green 6.5% (5%)
    LD 2% (6%)
    Others 6% (4%)

    Note: UKIP's Euro vote was larger in Tendring than all the other noteable parties combined.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Rob1909 said:

    We keep being shown councillors on TV news who blocked action in Rotherham.
    They don't say which political party they belong to.....

    Are there any Tories in Rotherham?
    Looking at the byelection results, as many as LibDems in a typical seat, ie close to lost deposit.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.

    Financing and cuts *now* wouldn't have had any effect on the ability to arrest the perpetrators 5,10 years ago.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
    Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
    Carswell joining UKIP is not going to make them Labour friendly. Its going to mark them out as 'right wing'.
    The only way it might help the tories is that it will mark them out as 'less right wing' and more attractive to 'stop ukip' voters.
    But the expectation must be that splitting the right wing vote is massive good news for Labour.


  • The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2014/aug/28/markets-poised-for-german-inflation-and-unemployment-data-business-live#block-53ff20b7e4b06f5272fb4181

    While austerity wracked Germany starts to shed jobs and stagnate, austerity-eschewing US powers ahead and remains the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Added to a complete government revolt in France over austerity (Hollande is an albatross for the Tories, not Labour).

    Things are looking up for Miliband if he wants to describe the path away from Osborne's disastrous handling of the economy. Look to the US.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Why is Cameron taking so long to move the writ for Clacton? When will he get a grip?

    Parliament is in recess. "Moving the writ" is a Parliamentary procedure that happens on the floor of the House of Commons.

    The earliest the writ can be moved is on Monday.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    With the by-election in mind a quick rough comparison between Tendring Council (Clacton is wholly within the boundaries) 2014 Euro election results and Newark's as it was the last Westminster by election that UKIP supposedly had to win. Newark figures in brackets:

    UKIP 48.4% (32.4%)
    Con 25% (31%)
    Lab 13% (21%)
    Green 6.5% (5%)
    LD 2% (6%)
    Others 6% (4%)

    Note: UKIP's Euro vote was larger in Tendring than all the other noteable parties combined.

    Another good point in Carswell's favour, it's close to the record 52% in Boston that UKIP got.
  • This has been a very bad day for Cameron and any lingering prospect the Tory party had of an overall majority next year disappear.The predictable response of the Tory party is blind panic,as the message sinks home,followed by endless banging on about Europe.

    I wouldn't feel too smug if I were you. After Rotherham there will be many defections from Labour to UKIP.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    The other Tory MP's whose constituency is partly in Tendring is one Bernard Jenkin. Has he yet commented on his neighbour's defection?
  • No update so far this week on UKPR's polling average, so Labour's 4% lead (37% vs 33%) will probably form the basis of Stephen Fisher's GE seats projection tomorrow. This seems very likely to give them a lead over the Tories ...... shame I was unable to tempt any PBers to accept my proposed bet to that effect on Monday evening.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BenM said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2014/aug/28/markets-poised-for-german-inflation-and-unemployment-data-business-live#block-53ff20b7e4b06f5272fb4181

    While austerity wracked Germany starts to shed jobs and stagnate, austerity-eschewing US powers ahead and remains the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Added to a complete government revolt in France over austerity (Hollande is an albatross for the Tories, not Labour).

    Things are looking up for Miliband if he wants to describe the path away from Osborne's disastrous handling of the economy. Look to the US.

    Dummkopf.

    Germany has been having a boom since 2009. One slow quarter isn't austerity.

    France is dans la merde big time and Hollande hasn't a clue what to do about it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi
    Any sign of someone to chair the inquiry into the alleged goings on by politicians yet?

    Not as far as I know. As I said at the time, the disgraceful mob-stirring by the media against Dame Butler-Sloss will have made it really hard to get anyone to take the role.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Quite. The narcissistic self indulgence of the Tory right is a wonder to behold,

    The night of Cameron's speech in Scotland which may affect the future of the Union he pulls a stunt like this.

    fitalass said:

    Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iraq...... Independence Referendum. In the middle of this, a Conservative MP defects to UKIP and causes a by-election just before a GE where the Conservative party want to offer a referendum In/Out of the EU if they win the next GE. So this stunt by Carswell is just about the most cynically timed bit of self indulgence which will turn out to be totally counter productive to his cause as a result.


    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Hugh said:

    What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?

    Sadly true as well...
    No. See below. Scotland.

    Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.

    Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.

    The latter is made more probable by the former.
    I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.

    I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.

    It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.

    I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.
    Look at the news, multiculturalism is over, what they are going to accuse Carswell of ?
    Being a racist ? The racism accusation is now a joke after Rotherham.
    If the Union is lost because of Carswell, it was hardly worth keeping.

    The union was bought and paid for by bribery and corruption. It was never the settled will of anyone.
    No its only lasted 300 years the napoleonic wars and two world wars and a cold war. What a load of rubbish the web encouraes people to spout.

    As others point out - this is hugely self indulgent and a stunt by Carsell who is clearly no where near as adult or grown up as he pretends.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Am I right in thinking that that's three of the seats where UKIP performed most strongly in the Euros that will be fielding new Tory candidates at the next General election? Its becoming a bit of a procession......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 2014
    I wondered how long before we got the "cuts" card being brought into play....if only had more money, this will never happen again. Here comes The Blob....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse

    Interestingly, Carwell's defection speech hailed feminism, disabled rights and immigration, and failure of Cameron to modernise Parliament."

    twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/504950831956123650
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The other Tory MP's whose constituency is partly in Tendring is one Bernard Jenkin. Has he yet commented on his neighbour's defection?

    Another good one, will Jenkin follow him?
    If yes, now or after his victory?
  • With the by-election in mind a quick rough comparison between Tendring Council (Clacton is wholly within the boundaries) 2014 Euro election results and Newark's as it was the last Westminster by election that UKIP supposedly had to win. Newark figures in brackets:

    UKIP 48.4% (32.4%)
    Con 25% (31%)
    Lab 13% (21%)
    Green 6.5% (5%)
    LD 2% (6%)
    Others 6% (4%)

    Note: UKIP's Euro vote was larger in Tendring than all the other noteable parties combined.

    Shadsy - how about a market from Ladbrokes on the LibDems losing their deposit?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    "Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse

    Interestingly, Carwell's defection speech hailed feminism, disabled rights and immigration, and failure of Cameron to modernise Parliament."

    twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/504950831956123650

    I believe he did that in order to disable any attack lines usually associated with UKIP candidates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited August 2014

    This has been a very bad day for Cameron and any lingering prospect the Tory party had of an overall majority next year disappear.The predictable response of the Tory party is blind panic,as the message sinks home,followed by endless banging on about Europe.

    I wouldn't feel too smug if I were you. After Rotherham there will be many defections from Labour to UKIP.
    Why's that? Have horrible scandals not happened before and yet many places with them remain one party states?

    Unfortunately I'm off now, so will have to see what the answer is another time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216



    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited August 2014
    Interesting tweet from 30 September 2013:

    twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/384621927093907456
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452
    BenM said:

    The danger we face now with the establishment doing nothing on Rotherham...

    You didn't read the report, instead running off on some tangent that fits your prejudices.

    The authorities in Rotherham have belatedly put in place measures to combat this appalling crime.

    Professor Alexis Jay specifically points this out in the report, which you'd know if you'd read it.

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
    There have been many improvements in the last four years by both the Council and the Police. The Police are now well resourced for CSE and well trained, though prosecutions remain low in number. There is a central team in children's social care which works jointly with the Police and deals with child sexual exploitation. This works well but the team struggles to keep pace with the demands of its workload. The Council is facing particular challenges in dealing with increased financial pressures, which inevitably impact on frontline services.
    The issue now *is* financing and the impact of cuts.

    What a load of absolute b/s. These crimes were ongoing during the years of Labour's excesses (in every sense of the term). Blaming them on the coalition is sick.

    The people who allowed this to happen - in the council, in the 'social services', in the police, and in the communities, but most of all the perpetrators - need to rot in hell.

    They are scum. Perhaps well-meaning scum, but scum nonetheless.

    As are you, for blaming 'cuts' for crimes that occurred well over a decade before. When Labour were in power.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
    Quite so, Mr. Woolie You get to the point where, as Mr Brooke reminded us, you cannot distinguish between the pigs and the men. Then You choose.
    Mr Llama.

    Too true. Then why are you choosing the pigs?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
    Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
    Carswell joining UKIP is not going to make them Labour friendly. Its going to mark them out as 'right wing'.
    It's going to make them look like winners. (Assuming Mr Carswell is re-elected).

    That should bring more support.

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited August 2014
    Two important points should be made about Rotherham, which have been neglected.
    (1) Time doesn't run against the Queen.
    (2) If what is reported to have occurred did occur, a very large number of public servants are open to indictment, prosecution and conviction for misconduct in public office. The elements of the offence are that (1) a public officer acting as such (2) wilfully neglects to perform his duty and/or wilfully misconducts himself (3) to such a degree as to amount to an abuse of the public's trust in the office holder (4) without reasonable excuse or justification (Attorney General's Reference No. 3 of 2004 [2004] EWCA Crim 868 at [61], per Pill LJ). Whether the CPS actually do their job, and prosecute the offenders, is of course an open question.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited August 2014
    I am no expert at all in this area but has Carswell really timed this for maximum effect? See highlighted section from the WIki article. Clarification anyone?

    When Parliament is not sitting, the Speaker may be required to issue his writ during a recess. The first legal provision for a by-election writ to be moved in the recess was the Recess Elections Act 1784 (24 Geo. III c. 26), which remained in force until replaced by the Recess Elections Act 1975 (1975 c. 66) on 12 December 1975. The procedure for issuing a writ involves two Members of Parliament presenting the Speaker with a certificate stating that there is a vacancy. The Speaker must then publish notice of his receiving the certificate in the London Gazette; six days after inserting the notice in the London Gazette, the Speaker will issue a warrant for the new writ. Recess writs cannot be issued where the vacancy has arisen as a result of a Member of Parliament resigning. The Speaker is allowed to appoint between three and seven senior MPs to exercise his powers to issue recess writs when he is out of the country or there is no Speaker.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Parliamentary_by-elections

    Will the writ have to wait until Parliament sits again? In which case is there any chance of it taking place before the party conference season?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Toenails:

    The Scottish National Party will tell Scots that the only way to opt out of all this is to vote to break up the United Kingdom.

    The earliest the by-election can be held is early October, immediately after the Tories' big pre-election party conference - just when they needed to focus on the battle against Labour and Ed Miliband.

    Whenever it is actually held, almost certainly much later, it will hover like a cloud over the Conservatives.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28970694
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited August 2014
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Losing his job as Leader, and all the trappings attached to the role.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Two important points should be made about Rotherham, which have been neglected.
    (1) Time doesn't run against the Queen.
    (2) If what is reported to have occurred did occur, a very large number of public servants are open to indictment, prosecution and conviction for misconduct in public office. The elements of the offence are that (1) a public officer acting as such (2) wilfully neglects to perform his duty and/or wilfully misconducts himself (3) to such a degree as to amount to an abuse of the public's trust in the office holder (4) without reasonable excuse or justification (Attorney General's Reference No. 3 of 2004 [2004] EWCA Crim 868 at [61], per Pill LJ). Whether the CPS actually do their job, and prosecute the offenders, is of course an open question.

    We should ask the local PCC.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    Sky doing a vox-pop in Clacton. Three out of four interviewed said they would support him...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I am no expert at all in this area but has Carswell really timed this for maximum effect? See highlighted section from the WIki article. Clarification anyone?

    When Parliament is not sitting, the Speaker may be required to issue his writ during a recess. The first legal provision for a by-election writ to be moved in the recess was the Recess Elections Act 1784 (24 Geo. III c. 26), which remained in force until replaced by the Recess Elections Act 1975 (1975 c. 66) on 12 December 1975. The procedure for issuing a writ involves two Members of Parliament presenting the Speaker with a certificate stating that there is a vacancy. The Speaker must then publish notice of his receiving the certificate in the London Gazette; six days after inserting the notice in the London Gazette, the Speaker will issue a warrant for the new writ. Recess writs cannot be issued where the vacancy has arisen as a result of a Member of Parliament resigning. The Speaker is allowed to appoint between three and seven senior MPs to exercise his powers to issue recess writs when he is out of the country or there is no Speaker.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Parliamentary_by-elections

    Will the writ have to wait until Parliament sits again? In which case is there any chance of it taking place before the party conference season?

    Toenails says it can't happen until early October.......
  • Speedy said:

    We should ask the local PCC.

    The Police and Crime Commissioner has no responsibility for the CPS, who report to the Chief Crown Prosecutor for Yorkshire and Humberside, and thence to the Director of Public Prosecutions.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Losing his job as Leader, and all the trappings attached to the role.
    I think he already said that he is standing down in 2020 as leader.
    Plus Farage is the most popular party leader according to Ipsos Mori.
  • Quincel said:

    Interesting tweet from 30 September 2013:

    https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/384621927093907456

    Good spot and good memory!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    We should ask the local PCC.

    The Police and Crime Commissioner has no responsibility for the CPS, who report to the Chief Crown Prosecutor for Yorkshire and Humberside, and thence to the Director of Public Prosecutions.
    Quite right, I was just being ironic.


  • The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    Actually that is one of the more stupid statements you have made on here (and that is up against some stiff competition) given that I have criticised both UKIP and Farage in particular regularly on a whole range of subjects and decisions.

    Unlike you I do not put party before principle.

    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Losing his job as Leader, and all the trappings attached to the role.
    I think he already said that he is standing down in 2020 as leader.
    Plus Farage is the most popular party leader according to Ipsos Mori.
    Who'd win in a Davis / Farage slug out?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Some of Camerons enemies will want to stick around for no other reason than to play their part if/when his downfall eventually arrives.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky doing a vox-pop in Clacton. Three out of four interviewed said they would support him...

    Small sample but bet while you can:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-to-win-a-seat
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited August 2014

    I am no expert at all in this area but has Carswell really timed this for maximum effect? See highlighted section from the WIki article. Clarification anyone?

    When Parliament is not sitting, the Speaker may be required to issue his writ during a recess. The first legal provision for a by-election writ to be moved in the recess was the Recess Elections Act 1784 (24 Geo. III c. 26), which remained in force until replaced by the Recess Elections Act 1975 (1975 c. 66) on 12 December 1975. The procedure for issuing a writ involves two Members of Parliament presenting the Speaker with a certificate stating that there is a vacancy. The Speaker must then publish notice of his receiving the certificate in the London Gazette; six days after inserting the notice in the London Gazette, the Speaker will issue a warrant for the new writ. Recess writs cannot be issued where the vacancy has arisen as a result of a Member of Parliament resigning. The Speaker is allowed to appoint between three and seven senior MPs to exercise his powers to issue recess writs when he is out of the country or there is no Speaker.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Parliamentary_by-elections

    Will the writ have to wait until Parliament sits again? In which case is there any chance of it taking place before the party conference season?

    Toenails says it can't happen until early October.......
    No chance then of a quick campaign and with all the Westminster parties distracted by not only the Independence vote but their conferences throughout September (as opposed to UKIP's more modest activities) I'd have thought they would not want to dive into a by election straight afterwards so it could be a long campaign (and therefore not really interfering with the Independence vote). It would seem UKIP may be getting the hang of this politics lark?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452



    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    Actually that is one of the more stupid statements you have made on here (and that is up against some stiff competition) given that I have criticised both UKIP and Farage in particular regularly on a whole range of subjects and decisions.

    Unlike you I do not put party before principle.

    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    It's a shame your principles are somewhat elastic ...
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and now you have something other than the IndyRef to get all hot and bothered about.

    Quite certain that privately Nigel Farage will be spitting feathers at the possibility of Douglas Carswell stealing his thunder, especially if he wins the by-election and becomes the standard bearer for Kippers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Farage just deosn't strike as the type who wants a big predatory beast roaming the house. He enjoys his staus as alpha male.


  • The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    Actually that is one of the more stupid statements you have made on here (and that is up against some stiff competition) given that I have criticised both UKIP and Farage in particular regularly on a whole range of subjects and decisions.

    Unlike you I do not put party before principle.

    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    It's a shame your principles are somewhat elastic ...
    Probably best to give me an example... if you can.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Odds from PP for Clacton are now:
    UKIP 2/9
    CON 3/1
    LAB 14/1
    LD 100/1
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
    Quite so, Mr. Woolie You get to the point where, as Mr Brooke reminded us, you cannot distinguish between the pigs and the men. Then You choose.
    Mr Llama.

    Too true. Then why are you choosing the pigs?
    Nice try, Mr J, but I have no intention of voting for let alone working for either of the two main parties.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
    Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
    Carswell joining UKIP is not going to make them Labour friendly. Its going to mark them out as 'right wing'.
    Fundamentally disagree. Carswell is not a right winger he's a libertarian. Not at all a 'hanger and flogger' sort.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    PP gives Carswell 5/6 odds to win both the by election and in 2015.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Farage just deosn't strike as the type who wants a big predatory beast roaming the house. He enjoys his staus as alpha male.
    And Davis has a better, more appealing back story. South London grammar school & council estate, versus South London public school and stockbroker lifestyle.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This kills the Boris for Clacton:

    Jim Waterson @jimwaterson · 45m
    In totally unexpected news: team Boris says he'll stick with Uxbridge and won't go for Clacton thankyouverymuch.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216



    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    Got a mirror, dear?

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Patrick said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn time for Lab.

    Bet the next meeting of the PLP will be p*ssing themselves with laughter, LOL.

    I doubt the PLP want to see UKIP win a by-election either.
    Of course they do.

    If it means they can breeze back into government (and maybe stay there for a decade)

    "The Right" is unfit for government. Labour looks solid and credible while the right slug it out like ferrets in a sack.

    This is Christmas come early for Ed Milliband.
    Unless UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than the Conservatives.

    http://youtu.be/e3L-aBgNL1w

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
    Carswell joining UKIP is not going to make them Labour friendly. Its going to mark them out as 'right wing'.
    Fundamentally disagree. Carswell is not a right winger he's a libertarian. Not at all a 'hanger and flogger' sort.
    Right wing's a variable (and oft complained about) term.
  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Going through the list of other potencial UKIP goers I find David Davis.
    He has no reason to stay in the tory party, no cabinet position, with Boris back smaller prospects for the leadership and I think he could win his seat under UKIP.

    Farage would be shit scared.
    Of what? Winning votes?
    Farage just deosn't strike as the type who wants a big predatory beast roaming the house. He enjoys his staus as alpha male.
    And Davis has a better, more appealing back story. South London grammar school & council estate, versus South London public school and stockbroker lifestyle.
    The more Libertarian Tories who defect to UKIP the better. It will not only hugely improve UKIPs electoral chances but it might start to change the drift we have seen in recent years within the party away from Libertarian principles towards a more traditional right wing intolerance.

    Having someone capable and ready to replace Farage would also be no bad thing.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Two important points should be made about Rotherham, which have been neglected.
    (1) Time doesn't run against the Queen.

    True, but to what potential claim is this relevant?


  • The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    Got a mirror, dear?

    You OK hun?

    :)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Speedy said:

    The other Tory MP's whose constituency is partly in Tendring is one Bernard Jenkin. Has he yet commented on his neighbour's defection?

    Another good one, will Jenkin follow him?
    If yes, now or after his victory?
    IIRC he said No, along with Peter Bone.


  • The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    Got a mirror, dear?

    Don't need one. You on the other hand clearly need help with you memory.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Quite certain that privately Nigel Farage will be spitting feathers at the possibility of Douglas Carswell stealing his thunder, especially if he wins the by-election and becomes the standard bearer for Kippers.

    Yes, while undoubtedly "good for UKIP" this is not an un-mixed blessing for Farage.....

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    No sign yet of Osborne appointing Carswell as Steward of the Manor of Northstead...
    https://www.gov.uk/government/latest?departments[]=hm-treasury
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited August 2014
    Apologies for bringing up the S-word again, as I'm completely sick of it too.

    But for those asking about the timing of this announcement relative to the Scottish Independence referendum, have you considered that Douglas Carswell doesn't care for Scotland remaining in the union? It seems wrong to assume that everyone English wants Scotland to remain part of the UK.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452



    The point was why did Carswell need to do it now? Typical Tory right - thinking the workd revolves round their little bubble. Instead of "Cameron says No to Currency Union" the papers tomorrow will be all about this self indulgent poorly timed drama queenery.

    No matter when it was done you would have come up with some fatuous reason as to why it was bad, ill timed or self indulgent. It is what you do. Anything that threatens Cameron you consider to tantamount to be an act of treason.
    You don't think 20 days before a vote deciding the date of the union unfortunate, at best?

    Of course, for you UKIP can do no wrong. It's what you do....
    Actually that is one of the more stupid statements you have made on here (and that is up against some stiff competition) given that I have criticised both UKIP and Farage in particular regularly on a whole range of subjects and decisions.

    Unlike you I do not put party before principle.

    But please don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
    It's a shame your principles are somewhat elastic ...
    Probably best to give me an example... if you can.
    I'll give you three:

    Stating you hate waste in the public sector, yet wanting a pointless referendum on the Lisbon treaty after it had been ratified;

    Stating you want out of the EU, yet publicly supporting one of the most pro-EU MPs in the last parliament who will do nothing to further that aim;

    Stating two 'principles' on when we should intervene in conflicts, yet ignoring that those two 'principles' would have stopped us intervening in the Falklands, and indeed WWII and about every other conflict we have ever been involved with.

    There you go. But I'll take something back~; they are not elastic. "Your principles are hideously broken" fits better. In fact, I think you make them up as you go along.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Plato said:

    Speedy said:

    The other Tory MP's whose constituency is partly in Tendring is one Bernard Jenkin. Has he yet commented on his neighbour's defection?

    Another good one, will Jenkin follow him?
    If yes, now or after his victory?
    IIRC he said No, along with Peter Bone.
    Anyway Miss P

    what have you been up to of late ?

    good to see you back posting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Just for the record, I am not a 'UKIP supporter' or 'switcher' or whatever.


    Until recently I would have counted myself as a likely but reluctant Tory voter in 2015.

    However the Rotherham revelations (the biggest scandal in modern British politics, to my mind), has made me think again.

    Our system is so screwed time-serving idiot lefty careerists won't even RESIGN when a thousand children are raped on their watch. It is unspeakable. And, sadly, I can't see the Cameroon Tories having the cullions to confront it, let alone seriously change things.

    We need a revolution. On that point alone, Carswell is right.

    So I hope he wins. But I now have no idea who I will vote for in 2015. Maybe no one.

    We need to completely clear out the filthy stables. It's been painful for me to accept, but a succession of scandals has made it plain to me that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority in this country are objectively evil.

    It is, sadly, becoming increasingly evident.
    Pretty much all I have left keeping me in the Tory fold is raw hatred of Labour and fear of them ever wielding power again. Then, you have to ask yourself, what am I supporting here?
    Quite so, Mr. Woolie You get to the point where, as Mr Brooke reminded us, you cannot distinguish between the pigs and the men. Then You choose.
    Mr Llama.

    Too true. Then why are you choosing the pigs?
    Nice try, Mr J, but I have no intention of voting for let alone working for either of the two main parties.
    Dear Mr Llama, if you ever find yourself up in Cambridge then I'd love to meet up for a drink where we can chew the cud on why you or I are wrong or right on this issue.
This discussion has been closed.