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UKIP beat the Conservatives in the EU Parliament election.JosiasJessop said:
"Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind."Socrates said:
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.JosiasJessop said:
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.Socrates said:
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.dyedwoolie said:
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs.Casino_Royale said:O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
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I also remember being a big fan of Cameron when I first posted here on PB in 2009 (IIRC), now I think he's just an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boyCasino_Royale said:I saw someone make a comment that Carswell was a maverick.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
How times change.
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The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
Hopefully Lynton Crosby will remind voters that the Tories are still what they've always been otherwise I see this as a black day for Ed0 -
The bluff has been called. Cameron can't manage a broad church, if the voters don't like what they see why on earth would they vote for it. Waving the Miliband bogeyman achieves little when his profile is not that different than Cameron ( Oxbridge, Spad, Power wife, millionaire ).Richard_Nabavi said:
No, the reality hasn't changed. Of course, the result may be disastrous for the country. That's up to voters. If they really don't think a Miliband government will be a disaster, good luck to them. They'll need it.Alanbrooke said:The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
The animals are looking on and can see little difference between the pigs and the humans.0 -
Jenkin on the WATO.0
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It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.Roger said:The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
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Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.0 -
Of course he was always an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boy - I gave him the benefit of the doubt for several years regardless, but the ineptitude of this government and his inability to control his own party have diminished him considerably.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I also remember being a big fan of Cameron when I first posted here on PB in 2009 (IIRC), now I think he's just an out-of-touch Bullingdon posh-boyCasino_Royale said:I saw someone make a comment that Carswell was a maverick.
It's easy to dismiss him as another Bob Spink, but anyone in doubt as to the significance of this defection should note that Carswell was one of David Cameron's earliest supporters for the leadership back in 2005.
How times change.
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Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one by one introduced policies that would piss each of them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.0 -
The year when we MAY get the referendum...Richard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.0 -
He may still want that. He just doesn't need the people of Clacton to vote for Cameron.Richard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
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If Carswell loses, which seems likely, then voters might well give up on UKIP and switch back to the main parties (and the tin-foil brigade will be split as to whether it was Osborne's or Crosby's cunning plan to ensure victory in 2015).kle4 said:
It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.Roger said:The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
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Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.0 -
The reason is that in Essex, there are plenty of working class Labour voters, whose views could be regarded as "right wing", but who don't want to vote Conservative. They're the sort of people who've switched from Labour to UKIP in places like Gooshays, or Basildon.Flightpath said:
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.kle4 said:
An interesting point. Carswell's defection really is one of those things that is probably bad for all the other parties at once. The Tories are once again in chaos, particularly if he wins, their faultlines open as many will probably barely hide their hope that Carswell wins; Labour hardly want people to think UKIP is not a wasted vote - while the Tories will probably suffer most, best not to place more Labour seats at risk. And if the LDs, well, things cannot get much worse, but at some point UKIP taking votes from everyone includes them too.edmundintokyo said:If the left LibDems have gone Labour, and UKIP are now going all libertarian and digital democracy, who's still left to vote LibDem, apart from incumbent MPs and their mums?
They're quite different from Labour supporters in places like Newham, or Islington, or Glasgow, or South Wales.
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Agreed. But many of those voters came from Labour and NOTA. The idea that UKIP is formed from Conservative voters is long dead.anotherDave said:
UKIP beat the Conservatives in the EU Parliament election.JosiasJessop said:
"Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind."Socrates said:
Given that UKIP are on the rise and the Tories are failing, it is you that is being left behind. There is nothing backwards or regressive of wanting properly managed borders, of wanting a government that respects the basic privacy of innocent citizens, of wanting to reinvigorate national democracies. The problem with the old Tory guard like yourself is that you have created a framing of yourselves as "modern" and can't see through any other lens.JosiasJessop said:
What you mean is that you don't like the direction the Tories are heading in: you are being left behind.Socrates said:
I'd love to unite the right, but it's the Tories that are standing in the way of that.dyedwoolie said:
If UKIP had a hope in hell of stopping Miliband, so would a lot more of us. They don't. And it is them who will take the blame for the utter collapse of the economy under Miliballs.Casino_Royale said:O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.
Get serious, unite the right, and Labour will be locked out permanently.
Leaving aside the EU, I see UKIP's policies (as much as they have any set policies) as thoroughly regressive, and even worse than Labour's.
But then I think we view social issues very differently.
There is a long way to go before there is crossover between Conservatives and UKIP, especially as much of UKIP's vote comes from Labour.
I'm on the fence about the EU, and certainly do not want further integration. I should be able to vote for UKIP. Yet they offer me nothing concrete, and are positively repulsive on other issues.
As an example, take grammar schools. I want better education for every child; I have been banging on about the shocking illiteracy and innumeracy rates for years on here and elsewhere. Yet grammar schools are a step back, especially as few, if any, of the proponents ever talk about what happens to the kids who do not get into grammar schools.
They should stfu about grammar schools, and instead talk about the children who are being left behind.0 -
TBF if it came down to it I'd imagine Carswell would vote for Cameron over Miliband in a confidence motion in 2015, albeit potentially after extracting concessions.Richard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.0 -
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Indeed so. That depends on one thing, and one thing only: whether we get a Conservative majority.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The year when we MAY get the referendum...0 -
Cameron won 37% in 2010 and now they're regularly polling 33 or 34%. That isn't symptomatic of crossing people off a list. What it does show is that when you're in power, it's even more difficult to please everyone.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.0 -
In Newark the LD vote went from 20.0% to 2.6%.
In Clacton they start on 12.9%...0 -
Some might, but probably not enough. This seems their best opportunity yet, but they've come close and yet failed before, and it hasn't punctured their future chances yet.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Carswell loses, which seems likely, then voters might well give up on UKIP and switch back to the main parties (and the tin-foil brigade will be split as to whether it was Osborne's or Crosby's cunning plan to ensure victory in 2015).kle4 said:
It might be cuddly but it has a lot less votes in it. I don't think the right of his party encompass the majority in actuality, but as Labour will hoover up any anti-Tory vote especially with the LD decline, Cameron has nothing to replace those lost voters from the right.Roger said:The irony of this and other fruitcakes leaving is that the big winner is likely to be Cameron. He's spent five of his early years trying to make the Tories look less nasty and what better way than losing his extreme right and leaving himself in the cuddly middle.
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Don't be sour Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
He said today that Cameron addressed the 1922 committee recently and said he was going to do whatever it took to keep us in the EU, but pretend to the electorate he was concerned enough about leaving to hoodwink their votes
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There are a group of about 30 Tory MPs who are currently operating as the Militant Tendency did in Labour.They are a party within a party and are the next generation of John Major's "bastards".Any one of these could explode at any time.woody662 said:I don't think this will be a series a defections. I've always liked Douglas Carswell and he had some good ideas surrounding direct democracy (one of which was elections Police Commissioners interestingly enough). I believe he is very intense and that is what has led him to defect. He does consider issues on a case by case basis and if UKIP do plan to have a proper policy platform, he will speak out if he disagrees. An example is HS2 where I do not believe he signed up to oppose.
I find all these UKIP defections strange because the thinking seems to be that Cameron is going to be leader forever. Even if he wins next year, its doubtful he would want to do a full term.
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Hague on Radio 4 saying the only option is a Tory majority.
The problem is no-one believes the Tories can win an overall majority anymore. That's a serious problem for Cameron.0 -
Assuming Carswell is re-elected, he'll vote in favour of an EU referendumRichard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
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Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke.
Respek also goes to you Mr Llama. Your anecdotal reports of huge enthusiasm for UKIP in a safe tory seat have turned out to be highly propitious.0 -
That seems...unlikely. I find it hard to believe a career politico like Cameron would be so careless as to admit something like that even in private, even if - especially in fact - it was the truth.isam said:
Don't be sour Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:Who wrote this a few months ago?
In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.
He said today that Cameron addressed the 1922 committee recently and said he was going to do whatever it took to keep us in the EU, but pretend to the electorate he was concerned enough about leaving to hoodwink their votes
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Labour PPC for Clacton is Tim Young (Leader of Colchester Labour Group). I don't know what the NEC will do now. If he's nota mad basket case, they will confirm it for the by-election.0
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Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Gale0 -
"He'll regret this" - Bernard Jenkin.
"I have absolutely no intention of leaving the Conservative Party", he says, sounding somewhat less than completely convinced.0 -
The bit I never got was the gratutitous insults for no gain.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
His Blair-dazzled spinners seemed to think that every moment had to be a clause 4 one. One or two sacred cows for the abattoir I could understand, but going on non-stop and throwing no red meat out to make it worthwhile staying the course was just stupid politics.
The PB role of honour of those who started out in 2010 giving Cameron goodwill and the benefit of the doubt and who have peeled off one by one is fairly instructive.0 -
There are a group of about 30 Tory MPs who are currently operating as the Militant Tendency did in Labour.
Make that 230.
Who knows. Perhaps UKIP's next defector is a northern labour MP sickened by the party's conduct in Rotherham.0 -
I know a fair few people who think very poorly of Mr Young. For some, at least - and I cannot call this more than an anecdote - they feel he represents a lack of accountability.AndreaParma_82 said:Labour PPC for Clacton is Tim Young (Leader of Colchester Labour Group). I don't know what the NEC will do now. If he's nota mad basket case, they will confirm it for the by-election.
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Clacton registered the 71st lowest LD share in 2010:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGtQck5wOU5mN1lQSjIydkZRQTNWbFE&usp=drive_web#gid=00 -
Cynic that I am I think there might be some value in the Tories @ 2/1 in Clacton. 4/6 would be a fairer price for UKIP than 1/3.
That said, the Heathites (Nabavi, Jessop etc.) haven't been in such reactionary form in quite a while. A glorious sight.0 -
Expert on Radio 4 says Carswell will have no problem whatsoever being re-elected.0
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Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.Quincel said:Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Gale
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
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This is brilliant.. Louise Mensch's hypocrisy is staggering!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/08/douglas-carswell-popular-with-the-tories-labour-and-now-ukip/0 -
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.0 -
Crikey, Mr. Town, calling Mr. Jessop of this parish a Heathite is going a bit strong. Perhaps you meant another Jessop.Life_ina_market_town said:Cynic that I am I think there might be some value in the Tories @ 2/1 in Clacton. 4/6 would be a fairer price for UKIP than 1/3.
That said, the Heathites (Nabavi, Jessop etc.) haven't been in such reactionary form in quite a while. A glorious sight.0 -
Another great irony.....on the day that the Scots launch their last ditch secret weapon-vote YES or in 2017 we might end up out of the EU-the Tory right start to defect to a Party that'll make sure we're out.
Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive (I was going to say elect a Tory government but it didn't rhyme)0 -
Maybe the LDs should just not bother standing in this by-election? They will not only go backward but face humiliation of a 4,5,6th place in all probability. Perhaps they should just argue that this by-election was not precipitated for any good purpose, but merely Carswell's internal Conservative disputes, so they will just let UKIP and Tories battle it out.
Nonsense of course, but it surely cannot be worth wasting a deposit and the admittedly minor ground game that would be done to go through the motions.0 -
Carswell was the only Tory MP openly supporting proportional representation.0
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Mr. kle4, indeed.0
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I dunno, even some of the hardcore Labour junkies might start jumping ship now the lid is off in Rotherham, and they realise they do nothing to protect the kiddies.AndyJS said:Hague on Radio 4 saying the only option is a Tory majority.
The problem is no-one believes the Tories can win an overall majority anymore. That's a serious problem for Cameron.
Labour, oversee the killing of people in hospital and turn a blind eye to kiddie abuse. Nice people.0 -
David Cameron:- failed to win an election, split the Right, might well LOSE THE UNION!
I think I'd be quite good at it
LOL0 -
What threats? once you're out, you're out. If you're staring down the barrel of a possible election defeat then you've got nothing to lose by rolling the dice.kle4 said:
Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.Quincel said:Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Gale
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.
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Carswell getting more than 50% would be a worthwhile bet IMO.0
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Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
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I didn't say the threats would not be empty threats. All Cameron's people have until 2015 is bluster.Slackbladder said:
What threats? once you're out, you're out. If you're staring down the barrel of a possible election defeat then you've got nothing to lose by rolling the dice.kle4 said:
Cameron's people will be out dealing out threats to the disaffected already I should think. The air will be thick with promised retribution.Quincel said:Wonder if this gentleman is getting some robust questions on his loyalty? Anti gay marriage, eurosceptic, pro capital punishment. And he'd probably win a by-election as a Kipper. I don't think he will jump ship, but if I were Farage I'd be sending out feelers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Gale
A couple of months ago I thought that the Tories seemed to have calmed down a bit and regained some confidence, or at least calm (be it from thinking they would do better than expected, or resigned to their fate), and some discipline. Now, the fear is back. Palpably so.0 -
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.0 -
He sits on the Lib Dem/UKIP wing of the party. Well, he did.AndyJS said:Carswell was the only Tory MP openly supporting proportional representation.
Now he can be UKIPs man to sweep up the remaining six lib Dems in the country.
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Haaahahaha. The little Murdoch lickspittle really isn't the sharpest tool in the box is she.isam said:This is brilliant.. Louise Mensch's hypocrisy is staggering!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/08/douglas-carswell-popular-with-the-tories-labour-and-now-ukip/0 -
I thought they were too busy "learning lessons" in the bleeding obvious to think about defection.taffys said:There are a group of about 30 Tory MPs who are currently operating as the Militant Tendency did in Labour.
Make that 230.
Who knows. Perhaps UKIP's next defector is a northern labour MP sickened by the party's conduct in Rotherham.0 -
The party (conservative one) is OVER and for these reasons.
A.Douglas Carswell is a not just anybody, he is a popular heavyweight MP.
B.UKIP gets a CON defection at a critical moment.
C. Cameron faces first calls to resign.
D.UKIP (Carswell actually) will win its first seat, making that breakthrough.
E.After winning a seat UKIP can no longer be excluded by the media broadcasts in the general election.
In short, UKIP makes breakthrough, Tory party splits.0 -
The Telegraph says Carswell's defection is a "seismic shock".
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100284247/douglas-carswells-defection-is-a-seismic-shock-to-the-british-political-system/
During the time he should have speaking with Carswell,Cameron was surfing on a Cornwall beach.How many other Tory MPs feel similarly shunned by the old Etonian chumocracy?0 -
Oh dear. You'd almost think that The Establishment are the victims in all of this. They are not. They are bringing about their own demise through blatant incomptence, over many decades.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
The last thing they deserve (or need) is pity.
0 -
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.BenM said:
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.0 -
Here's the Ladbrokes' view:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/carswell-odds-on-to-win-clacton-for-ukip/0 -
Great times for creative campaigning in Clacton for the Tories.
"Last week I agreed with Mr Carswell totally, a great man. This week, I still agree with practically everything he believes in, but you must never ever vote for him".0 -
How many other Tory MPs are on holiday too?volcanopete said:The Telegraph says Carswell's defection is a "seismic shock".
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100284247/douglas-carswells-defection-is-a-seismic-shock-to-the-british-political-system/
During the time he should have speaking with Carswell,Cameron was surfing on a Cornwall beach.How many other Tory MPs feel similarly shunned by the old Etonian chumocracy?0 -
Why is Cameron taking so long to move the writ for Clacton? When will he get a grip?0
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I don't disagree. I'm merely pointing out that it is the establishment, in the shape of Labour, who will benefit from anti-establishment feeling, because the left are junkies, and stupidStuart_Dickson said:
Oh dear. You'd almost think that The Establishment are the victims in all of this. They are not. They are bringing about their own demise through blatant incomptence, over many decades.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
The last thing they deserve (or need) is pity.
So, good luck with going to hospital or not having your kids abused for the next five years.0 -
It's so close to the general election, might as well leave it till May 2015...volcanopete said:Why is Cameron taking so long to move the writ for Clacton? When will he get a grip?
0 -
No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?JohnO said:
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.0 -
One positive for Labour from Carswell's defection is they will tell their Northern base that the UKIP sheep is a thatcherite wolf in disguise.0
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Just think of the news narrative of the past month:
ISIS, UKIP,British Jihadists, UKIP, Asian sex gangs, UKIP
I can't think of a better media moment for UKIP, it just reinforces their entire ideological position.0 -
Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
Muppet.0 -
I don't think UKIP does comprise solely of disillusioned Conservatives, but it probably does comprise mostly of people who in the past might have been persuaded to vote Conservative but who now would never dream of it.JohnO said:
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
By the way Mr. O next month I am going to owe you £50 and a bottle of something decent. I haven't forgotten but I have lost your address (it was on my computer that went splat). Could you let me have it again, please?0 -
Tell that to Rotherham.taffys said:One positive for Labour from Carswell's defection is they will tell their Northern base that the UKIP sheep is a thatcherite wolf in disguise.
I can imagine how the canvassing will go:
"those children were raped by asian gangs"
"yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"0 -
'UK minister open to joining Alex Salmond’s team if Scotland votes Yes'
... The idea of Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary, publicly debating his possible role in establishing an independent state caused dismay in the No campaign and has heightened speculation he could lose his job.
... Some senior Liberal Democrats say they expect Mr Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, to be moved out of the cabinet when Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and party leader, conducts a reshuffle of the coalition’s Lib Dem ministers in the next few weeks.
Jo Swinson, the 34-year-old employment minister and MP for East Dunbartonshire, has been tipped to replace Mr Carmichael after the referendum, adding a much-needed female face to Mr Clegg’s top team.
... Asked about the possibility of a Yes vote – which is still unlikely according to opinion polls – Mr Carmichael added: “If that is something that happens then yes, I would want to get the best possible deal for Scotland.”
The pro-union Better Together campaign declined to comment, although privately officials were amazed that the Scottish secretary should have ventured into speculation about defeat on September 18. One senior member of the campaign asked: “Why would he do it now?”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a78f3e80-2ea0-11e4-bffa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BgnqEhhv
0 -
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.dyedwoolie said:
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.BenM said:
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.0 -
Heathite?Life_ina_market_town said:Cynic that I am I think there might be some value in the Tories @ 2/1 in Clacton. 4/6 would be a fairer price for UKIP than 1/3.
That said, the Heathites (Nabavi, Jessop etc.) haven't been in such reactionary form in quite a while. A glorious sight.
A bit of projection there, methinks.
In my time on PB I've been called a Tory, a left-winger, a liberal, and even a UKIPper by some deluded fool. I think that's because idiots cannot compartmentalise someone who has voted for candidates from many parties and independents (except Labour).
Edit: you could also call me a Wilsonite or Bennite as I quite like the idea of: "the Britain that is going to be forged in the white heat of this revolution (technological change) will be no place for restrictive practices or for outdated measures on either side of industry".0 -
We’ve also quoted 6/4 that any other Tory MP defects before the general election. Nadine Dorries and Mark Reckless are a couple of names that spring to mind.shadsy said:Here's the Ladbrokes' view:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/carswell-odds-on-to-win-clacton-for-ukip/
What say you, Peter the Punter?0 -
At least Clacton isn't far for the Conservatives to bus in their London student activists.0
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Muppet.
Maybe. Look at it from his point of view
Cameron = UK stays in on basically the same terms
Miliband = UK stays in on basically the same terms
0 -
Hey, I agree that the Tories need more votes though 38% should see them as comfortably the largest party and Cameron remaining PM. I happen to beleive there is a rather larger pool of broadly centrist/'moderate'/apolitical folk out there to woo for the cause, as opposed to hard rightists like your good self.Alanbrooke said:
No they don't, but by the same measure for the conservatives to hit 40% they need to pick up votes from non-conservatives and non-voters. Major got 14 million votes, the population has grown, and the number of conservatives voters has shrunk. Contrary to expectations they haven't all died as we have more oldies than ever. So why aren't you getting the votes ?JohnO said:
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.0 -
Priti Patel could defect?0
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Depends on whether you count the fact of or the cause of recession. Recessions happen when the money runs out. That happens under Labours watch. The necessary retrenchment to save the economy etc etc etc.BenM said:
The only post war recession under a Labour government was the 2008-09 one. Yes, it was THE biggie, but caused by Private Sector banking fecklessness and irresponsibility.dyedwoolie said:
Nor is inviting half the world to claim benefits and vote Labour. Nor is offering state handouts to the wealthy. Nor is borrowing to invest in breast appreciation workshops. Nor is going to the IMF because you have run out of money.BenM said:
Funny, most woklessness occurs under Tory governments. Certainly Labour never posted 3 million unemployed like the Tories have. Twice.dyedwoolie said:
I don't wonder at all. The left pays for it's votes with freebies and then keeps the junkies on the hook. Of course their clients will vote for them, they want more of that sweet, sweet juice, and they are not prepared to work for it,BenM said:
And you wonder why the Tories wheeze and gasp to get more than a 1/3rd of the vote?dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Which means only one thing. Permanent Labour government, thanks to the State junkies and layabout client vote that they can rely on. Anti-establishment is always good for the left, and gives them time to clamp more idiots onto the teat.Stuart_Dickson said:Biggest political stories in the UK today: Carswell, Rotherham and immigration. None of them make Westminster and Whitehall look competent.
The Establishment are in acute difficulty.
So the sweet sweet juice seems to flow from Tory treasuries into the mouths of the growing unemployed the Tories always manage to create.
And don't try pointing to current employment stats to refute the utterly appalling Tory record on jobs. Zillions of people flipping burgers or just declaring themselves self-employed is no recipe for a successful economy.
Worklessness follows recession. Which Labour cause.
All other post war recessions, including the 2011-12 double dip recession occured under Tory governments.
Read up on your economic history.
Hit it until it's on the point of shattering, then run away and blame the ones who try and keep it all together. labours meme since 1945
0 -
Err, more likely to be UK goes in deep.taffys said:Muppet.
Miliband = UK stays in on basically the same terms
0 -
Something in that, I think. But Carswell isn't classically right-wing - he's one of those people for whom it's hard to predict what he'll say on any new issue. He is not a tub-thumping populist - I'm not sure he's especially anti-immigration, for instance, though I might be wrong. Our legal contributor here who posts austere comments from the viewpoint of a strict-construction libertarian (forgotten his name, sorry - 4 words) gets his flavour most closely.Sean_F said:
The reason is that in Essex, there are plenty of working class Labour voters, whose views could be regarded as "right wing", but who don't want to vote Conservative. They're the sort of people who've switched from Labour to UKIP in places like Gooshays, or Basildon.Flightpath said:
Carswell is clearly labelled as a loopy right winger by Labour. Why would Labour supporters vote for a party so easily labelled (because it is true) as right wing? Carswell sticks a big sign over UKIP for Labour supporters. It says 'Plague'.
They're quite different from Labour supporters in places like Newham, or Islington, or Glasgow, or South Wales.
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"yeah but at least they were not thacherite asian gangs"
Do you honestly think Rotherham will fall to UKIP, Mr Speedy? I'm not so sure.0 -
F1: Webber thinks Mercedes effectively isn't a team anymore:
http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/172857.html
Ladbrokes usually puts its markets up the Monday before a race. I'll be checking the odds on Williams to top score. Monza's a collection of straight lines, and the Williams is the fastest car in a straight line.0 -
You are saying that about someone who has sat and discussed EU policy with David Cameron and decided that he is as much of a Brussels lap dog as MilibandMarqueeMark said:Seems Mr. Carswell has never accepted having the half cake of Coalition, preferring instead the no cake of Opposition.
He seems a decent chap. I suspect the sight of Brussels lap-dog Ed Miliband in No. 10 will prove very difficult for him to bear - as everything he wants for Britain recedes ever further over the horizon.
Muppet.
Without the honesty0 -
No its not close enough, the by-election will have to happen sometime in late September-early October.MarkHopkins said:
It's so close to the general election, might as well leave it till May 2015...volcanopete said:Why is Cameron taking so long to move the writ for Clacton? When will he get a grip?
It will overshadow the conferences, Carswell is not an idiot, he is sure of his re-election and he caused the by-election at the moment of maximum effect.0 -
Thanks - it will certainly put to good use, perhaps easing the pain of Mr Carswell's ratting.HurstLlama said:
I don't think UKIP does comprise solely of disillusioned Conservatives, but it probably does comprise mostly of people who in the past might have been persuaded to vote Conservative but who now would never dream of it.JohnO said:
Are there more disaffected righties than current Tories plus those the party wishes to gain from Labour, Lib Dem and other non voters who are not UKIP inclined? The polls suggest currently that there is all too play for in May 2015 without lurching to the right. I agree with Sean Fear (I think it was) who assert that UKIP no longer comprises disllusioned Conservatives.Alanbrooke said:
Sorry John O that's to miss the point.JohnO said:
Starnge then almost all the polls have shown that the Tories have only lost about 3% of their 2010 share, notwithstanding the recession and UKIP's rise.HurstLlama said:
Sagacious remarks as ever, Mr. Brooke. Cameron seems to have started off with a list of the groups of people who could normally be relied upon to vote Conservative and then one one by introduced policies that would piss them off or failing to do, or even try to do, what he promised for no obviously good reason.Alanbrooke said:
Ridiculous Richard. He even passed up on the chance to make a gracious apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
Accurate, at the time. Less so now, certainly, as UKIP has changed a lot.Alanbrooke said:whereas Cameron describing chunks of the electorate as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists is what ?
In the event his disdain for a slice of his natural supporters has now caught him up with an election on the horizon.
The Cameroons bluff that you have nowhere else to go has been called and they've lost.
Cameron just isn't very good at politics.
The Tories are sat on their pig on a stick vote. The issue is why you haven't pick up the natural constituency of floaters, disaffected righties, people who haven't voted. That's the 10ish % of votes Cameron needs to engage with and can't, and why he'll never get a majority in his own right.
By the way Mr. O next month I am going to owe you £50 and a bottle of something decent. I haven't forgotten but I have lost your address (it was on my computer that went splat). Could you let me have it again, please?
Drop me a line on john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk and I will ask my manservant, Hugh, to arrange the details.0 -
Or they could take the train from Liverpool Street!Artist said:At least Clacton isn't far for the Conservatives to bus in their London student activists.
0 -
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Alan, agreed, the timing of this by-election could prove to be the big error for Carswell and UKIP. They obviously wanted to make a big splash by causing a by-election that would have to be held before the next GE, but looking around at everything else that is going on in the news right now, and it begins to look very self indulgent.Alanbrooke said:
It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.0 -
Half a dozen coastal MPs. UKIP have zero chance in rural Southern and Eastern England.Speedy said:0
This discussion has been closed.