politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the
Comments
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If Ivan Henderson stands again for Labour he could do well. He won a seat from the Conservatives at the County Council elections. For Harwich though, not within the current constituency boundaries. He’s got quite a high profile locally though.0
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[edit} forgive the interjection: Quite, but it does depend how many moves the viewers look ahead. They could, in particular, think "oooh, that makes a Tory-UKIP pact even more likely". Or they can just look at EWNI as a whole and the increasing dominance of mid- to far-right-wing politics (as a non-SNP friend of mine commented recently), of which UKIP rise is a marker.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
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Isn't he standing down at GE2015?Sean_F said:
Austin Mitchell?edmundintokyo said:Presumably it hasn't just occurred to Carswell to do this. I wonder if UKIP have got any more of these saved up to release at an opportune time and keep their momentum going.
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Hmm.Sean_F said:
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.0 -
And he had the guts to let the voters approve his change of party. Impressive.TwistedFireStopper said:Carswell is the sort of politician we need more of, on both left and right. Decent, honest, hardworking, and independently minded. I may not agree with everything he says, but I like his honesty, especially his decision to put his job on the line.
I hope he gets back in.
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Coral 4/7 ukip to win a seat at the GE0
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Big chunks of Labour and Lib Dem voters from 2010 will switch to UKIP.GIN1138 said:I don't think it's at all a given that this is a Carswell/UKIP Hold.
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retins the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.
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A few tweets suggesting the Conservatives move the writ, although they wouldn't want to be seen messing around.AndyJS said:I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
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I do worry Carswell may be about to remind us all of Julian the Apostate. Clever, principled, likeable, tactically sound but ultimately failing in his strategic objective.
If Labour win in 2015, what will happen in the next election?
Either the Conservatives bounce back *or* UKIP usurp them. But if the latter happens it's unlikely they'll take over wholesale, and we'll have another Labour government.
On the other hand, if the Conservatives win in 2015, now much less likely, we'd have a referendum on the EU in 2017.0 -
Technically not quite true. By-elections can be moved by anyone in the Commons, and although usually the party holding the seat is deferred to as a matter of courtesy (especially in the case of death), the threat of doing so has been used in the past when parties were dilatory in moving awkward ones. If the former MP is still alive and asks for a by-election on a particular date, I think it'd be quite hard to refuse. Wikipedia is accurate on this:JohnO said:I imagine Carswell will romp the by-election (but the Tories will decide when it's held...perhaps sooner the better and get it out of the way), UKIP will have another bouncette....small earthquake in Clacton...and the caravan moves on. Annoying and distracting for us blues but hardly seismic. I will win by May 2015 bets with tim.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Parliamentary_by-elections
The governing parties can vote a proposal down, but it's embarrassing. It would be interesting to have it on October 2, the last day of the Tory conference and a few days after the UKIP conference.
As Richard N observes, he's not the most obvious defector, and we've wondered before why there weren't any. More to come, perhaps. I recall him as respected and serious, not one of nature's jokier people, and on the libertarian wing of the right.
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It's the Tories that will decide the timing and move the writ notwithstanding Nick Palmer's useful clarification.AndyJS said:I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
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I see it as a mistake because I'm a conservative supporter. I never said Carswell was "selfish". you seem to have made that up!SeanT said:
He's only made a mistake if you see politics as being about parties and careers.felix said:
I'd be surprised if it happens - voters will always reward parties that stay united and punish those which don't. I have no strong views about Carswell either way - but he has made a big mistake today.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
Carswell clearly believes getting out of the EU, and breaking the Westminster 'duopoly' is more important, in which case his timing is perfect, in terms of impact. He needs to win this by election to prove his point and now is definitely the right moment to do that.
And incidentally, if Carswell was "selfish" he wouldn't have resigned and forced a by-election. He could just have sat tight. But he didn't. As he has principles.0 -
IIRC the last MP to do that lost!Carnyx said:
And he had the guts to let the voters approve his change of party. Impressive.TwistedFireStopper said:Carswell is the sort of politician we need more of, on both left and right. Decent, honest, hardworking, and independently minded. I may not agree with everything he says, but I like his honesty, especially his decision to put his job on the line.
I hope he gets back in.0 -
I'm not saying he doesn't have principles but it's good strategy as well. A by-election win is a much lower bar for UKIP than a general election win, and clearing it will get people used to voting for him as a UKIP MP and dispirit the local Tory party in advance of 2015.SeanT said:
And incidentally, if Carswell was "selfish" he wouldn't have resigned and forced a by-election. He could just have sat tight. But he didn't. As he has principles.0 -
Those bets on zero UKIP seats at the GE are suddenly looking very poor value0
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I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.Alanbrooke said:
Hmm.Sean_F said:
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.0 -
Trust me to be away when the big news breaks. Welcome to UKIP Douglas Carswell.0
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Sadly Lab are only 10/1, not 100 as I appear to have posted below!OldKingCole said:If Ivan Henderson stands again for Labour he could do well. He won a seat from the Conservatives at the County Council elections. For Harwich though, not within the current constituency boundaries. He’s got quite a high profile locally though.
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Fantastically splendid to see an MP who leaves the party he/she stood for at the previous election actually seek re-election under his/her new colours!0
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Voters hate needless by elections as well, so there's bound to be an element of Carswell/UKIP and Conservatives all being punished for this by election.
If I was a betting man (which I'm not) I'd be tempted to put a few pounds on Labour, who will be rank outsiders.0 -
For sure the whole Scottish debate, Rotherham, UKIP have moved the centre ground of British politics a bit to the right. Saying and voting for what you think is the new black. But the right is getting more and more split. If Redward governs as a lefty then Labour will be destroyed. BoJO PM 2020? This makes Miliband's chances of becoming PM higher but his freedom to go all Hollande in power much reduced. It's going to be a miserable Labour administration we get.Carnyx said:
[edit} forgive the interjection: Quite, but it does depend how many moves the viewers look ahead. They could, in particular, think "oooh, that makes a Tory-UKIP pact even more likely". Or they can just look at EWNI as a whole and the increasing dominance of mid- to far-right-wing politics (as a non-SNP friend of mine commented recently), of which UKIP rise is a marker.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
British politics is in for a period of readjustment. Good.0 -
Oh well, it was nice when we had an economy that was holding up. That's Ed in number 10 and everyone down the pan.
Although, Brian Sedgemoor didn't change much in 2005.0 -
Most recent local elections were the Essex CC elections in May 2013:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Tendring is the name of the local council.0 -
No Miss P.Plato said:
I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.Alanbrooke said:
Hmm.Sean_F said:
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.
Labour were currently wriggling nicely on a hook of their own making.
Waiting a week wouldn't have made much difference to the impact of the announcement.0 -
Ukip won the euros by almost 10,000Sean_F said:
Big chunks of Labour and Lib Dem voters from 2010 will switch to UKIP.GIN1138 said:I don't think it's at all a given that this is a Carswell/UKIP Hold.
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retins the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.
http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/sites/chelmsford.gov.uk/files/files/files/documents/files/Euro Election breakdown.csv0 -
Err, that's not doing something. That's promising to do something in the future when they may or may not be in government. I deal with people like this in the working world: there's always a reason why it can't be done now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, the Conservatives are doing something abut the EU. A referendum in 2017.Socrates said:
Tories on here are getting really desperate today. It was your fault the Right got split, because you comprehensively failed to do anything about conservative concerns on civil liberties, on the EU, on immigration. Rather than be spiteful to the party actually representing those concerns, perhaps you could try addressing them...
Only citizens that are fighting for a group that is actively at war with the West. It's been a long-standing principle that executive action on these sort of matters is acceptable in war. What's not not a long-standing principle is mass spying on the innocent people of this country.Richard_Nabavi said:On civil liberties, to claim UKIP are 'addressing concerns' is just a joke. Only a few days ago Farage was advocating citizens being stripped of their citizenshp by executive fiat.
What proposed policy by the Tories was going to achieve the necessary reduction in non-EU immigration that the Lib Dems blocked? The Lib Dems are just another well-worn excuse. As for "sorting out the EU aspect", Cameron has come out and said he supports free movement of labour in the EU. He has no plans to effectively address the issue and you know it.Richard_Nabavi said:On immigration, the government is reducing non-EU immigration (as much as it can within the constraints of coalition with a pro-immigration party). That is all it can do until we've sorted out the EU aspect.
The Two Eds are going to get in because of the Tories' failures in office. And my concerns will not be addressed whether either the big two parties get in, so I'm having to look for a beyond 2020 horizon anyway.Richard_Nabavi said:But go ahead, put the two Eds into Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street. I'm sure that will address your concerns.
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I know and it won't happen...I wouldn't be surprised if pressure won't be put on Dan Hannam to stand.MikeK said:0 -
Everyone not blue loves Dougie today. Man of principle etc etc. funny dat.0
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Every ukip bet for the GE just increased in value0
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Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling0
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Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
28/08/2014 11:17
In our analysis Clacton is THE most favourable seat for Ukip. Carswell will win hands down @robfordmancs
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Your non-SNP friend must be a left-wing muppet. UKIP are not "far right", and only an idiot with no knowledge of political history or international politics would think otherwise.Carnyx said:
[edit} forgive the interjection: Quite, but it does depend how many moves the viewers look ahead. They could, in particular, think "oooh, that makes a Tory-UKIP pact even more likely". Or they can just look at EWNI as a whole and the increasing dominance of mid- to far-right-wing politics (as a non-SNP friend of mine commented recently), of which UKIP rise is a marker.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
Also, UKIP got a seat in Scotland at the Euros, so it's stupid to say it's just a rUK phenomenon.0 -
Yes. I suppose he could still defect as a token gesture.Plato said:
Isn't he standing down at GE2015?Sean_F said:
Austin Mitchell?edmundintokyo said:Presumably it hasn't just occurred to Carswell to do this. I wonder if UKIP have got any more of these saved up to release at an opportune time and keep their momentum going.
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By the way, there's still time for Boris to withdraw from Uxbridge and stand in Clacton instead. How about that for a dramatic High Noon event?
As for the Indyref, I can't see the prospect of a future by-election in Clacton moving a single vote.0 -
Disappointing.0
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Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.0 -
Carswell would probably beat him. UKIP can do well in by-elections with the right demographics, and Carswell is a popular incumbent.dyedwoolie said:Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling
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Paddy Power are 4/6 ukip?????? Get on that is ridiculous value0
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Hmm, interesting. Just checking please: Redward is Miliband, right?Patrick said:
For sure the whole Scottish debate, Rotherham, UKIP have moved the centre ground of British politics a bit to the right. Saying and voting for what you think is the new black. But the right is getting more and more split. If Redward governs as a lefty then Labour will be destroyed. BoJO PM 2020? This makes Miliband's chances of becoming PM higher but his freedom to go all Hollande in power much reduced. It's going to be a miserable Labour administration we get.Carnyx said:
[edit} forgive the interjection: Quite, but it does depend how many moves the viewers look ahead. They could, in particular, think "oooh, that makes a Tory-UKIP pact even more likely". Or they can just look at EWNI as a whole and the increasing dominance of mid- to far-right-wing politics (as a non-SNP friend of mine commented recently), of which UKIP rise is a marker.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
British politics is in for a period of readjustment. Good.
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Just one SDP defector resigned his seat, Bruce Douglas-Mann in 1982, and lost it to the Conservatives in Mitcham & Morden.Sunil_Prasannan said:Fantastically splendid to see an MP who leaves the party he/she stood for at the previous election actually seek re-election under his/her new colours!
Video I uploaded on that election:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpt2ywiTzY0 -
This part of Essex is the home of the UKIP in Europe, Tories in Westminster voter. The difference will be (a) Carswell himself and (b) Labour voters in areas like Jaywick (some of the most economically deprived in the country).isam said:
Ukip won the euros by almost 10,000Sean_F said:
Big chunks of Labour and Lib Dem voters from 2010 will switch to UKIP.GIN1138 said:I don't think it's at all a given that this is a Carswell/UKIP Hold.
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retins the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.
http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/sites/chelmsford.gov.uk/files/files/files/documents/files/Euro Election breakdown.csv
The Frinton part of the constituency will be key as well. Currently opposing a Sainsbury's on the grounds that its orange signage isn't in keeping with the locale, it is full of people who have voted Conservative for many years (it has an older population) but who might be tempted to leave for UKIP.0 -
is it any different from the self-destructive obsessive myopia of the Cameroons ?DavidL said:Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.0 -
Carswell is also very good on civil liberties, and should be a much-welcome push for UKIP to move more clearly in that direction.0
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I almost put £10 on UKIP winning Clacton @ ~100:1, (after Mr Goodwin said it was so UKIP friendly) but didn't because Mr Carswell is such a Good Egg.isam said:Every ukip bet for the GE just increased in value
Doh!0 -
I suspect Boris Johnson would go down like a lead balloon in Clacton.dyedwoolie said:Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling
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Quite. Carswell has done those violated by the largely Pakistani child abusers in Rotherham no favours, and knocked those who let them get away with it off the front pages. Silly timing.Alanbrooke said:
No Miss P.Plato said:
I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.Alanbrooke said:
Hmm.Sean_F said:
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.
Labour were currently wriggling nicely on a hook of their own making.
Waiting a week wouldn't have made much difference to the impact of the announcement.0 -
If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.0
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It is foolish to suggest that the CEO is in Edinburgh currently and also foolish to suggest that it needs moving 5000 people to London to support him in any event. We are not in the stone age. You are talking through an orifice other than your mouth.Charles said:FPT @malcolmg
I don't want to drag Scotland on to a much more interesting thread.
But "refute that if you can" was the challenge.
Of course 5,000 jobs are not the "top jobs". But they are the ecosystems that supports the CEO's office. And they are all well paid. It will be a significant economic loss to Scotland.
I can respect the argument that it's a price worth paying. But to pretend it's not going to happen is just foolish.
You show your ignorance in stating that one poxy Tory defecting is more important than Scotland leaving the union.
I am off for a French Market Fish cookery course and will not have to suffer any more fools today thank God.
You Tories can continue to ejaculate over your defector without me.0 -
Yes, he would. Particularly against a man of Carswell's moral fibre and local presence.AndyJS said:
I suspect Boris Johnson would go down like a lead balloon in Clacton.dyedwoolie said:Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling
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Bor-ris, bor-ris, bor-ris...!0
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Carswell is an excellent MP - I hope he's re-elected.0
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This area is in the Clacton constituency:
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK
New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2012/jul/01/jaywick-sands-most-deprived-uk
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2303489/East-Jaywick-Life-seaside-deprived-village-England.html0 -
Boris might be tempted to keep out of it... He won't want to be seen to be UKIP bashing too much I feel.Grandiose said:0 -
In the EU elections UKIP took ~27% of the vote across the UK, but only 10% in Scotland. Even in London UKIP took about 16% of the vote.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
The prominence of UKIP emphasises the differences in political culture between Scotland and England. It should therefore help YES.0 -
Why is it stupid or selfish for Carswell to have an internal struggle with himself, decide that he's in the wrong party, and then do something about it?
It won't be Carswell's fault that Milliband becomes PM. That is solely down to Cameron.0 -
How long until Carswell realise's Farage is only in it for the money and they have a monumental falling out, LOL?Patrick said:If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.
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Mike, I've an inkling (and it's no more than that) that there will be another defection, in which case Hannan would be a likely suspect.MikeK said:
You must be tickled pink!
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A bad day for the Conservatives and Cameron. Unfortunately the europhile Foreign Office reviews of european powers was probably a key factor that caused this. Hague and Lidington, primary causes. The move to Hammond was too little too late. If Cameron sacked Lidington and appointed a eurosceptic (Francois?) as Lidington's replacement, Cameron might hold back the tide. But Cameron brought in too many europhiles into Govt.0
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A very good point. Carswell gives UKIP (much needed) depth and gravitas.Patrick said:If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.
They still need about 10 good people in the frontline as MPs though.
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It may be that the Tories have to adopt an increasingly Euro-sceptic view. It seems that doing so will help their 2015 chances a little anyway.DavidL said:Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.
Labour won't really like being sidelined in the bye-election, but that's inevitable. Overall this has to be a plus for them though. (I've just backed Ed for next PM @ 1.98 in a small way. ) I wonder though quite what stance Labour will have in 2015 with regards to Europe - if they edge towards euroscepticism too then there's a danger they find themselves in the unpopular place the Tories are, but perhaps a referendum promise might defuse all these dangers for them. (I don't think it'll happen nor that they'd be wise to do so, but who knows)
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You're really getting desperate, aren't you?TheWatcher said:
Quite. Carswell has done those violated by the largely Pakistani child abusers in Rotherham no favours, and knocked those who let them get away with it off the front pages. Silly timing.Alanbrooke said:
No Miss P.Plato said:
I can see the logic of it from UKIP's POV - they can now use Mr Carswell on both immigration and multi-culti - if they left it a week, they'd lose the airtime. Labour will be wriggling on a hook for ages after this week.Alanbrooke said:
Hmm.Sean_F said:
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.
still not convinced the timing on this was anything but crass. Leaving Labour to see the week out in Rotherham seemed much more sensible, given UKIP are probably the opposition in the seat and some of the surrounding ones.
Labour were currently wriggling nicely on a hook of their own making.
Waiting a week wouldn't have made much difference to the impact of the announcement.0 -
Why does this myth persist that Scots are all rabid europhiles? Polling suggests they are only slightly less eurosceptic than the English, and have just elected a UKIP MEP (which didn't come out of the tory share either).
The most likely way of Scotland leaving the EU is a yes vote (albeit temporarily).0 -
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.AndyJS said:This area is in the Clacton constituency:
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK
New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2012/jul/01/jaywick-sands-most-deprived-uk
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2303489/East-Jaywick-Life-seaside-deprived-village-England.html0 -
IIRC, the County Council Division that includes Jaywick returned one Labour county councillor, and one UKIP. Previously, it was very safe Labour.Grandiose said:
This part of Essex is the home of the UKIP in Europe, Tories in Westminster voter. The difference will be (a) Carswell himself and (b) Labour voters in areas like Jaywick (some of the most economically deprived in the country).isam said:
Ukip won the euros by almost 10,000Sean_F said:
Big chunks of Labour and Lib Dem voters from 2010 will switch to UKIP.GIN1138 said:I don't think it's at all a given that this is a Carswell/UKIP Hold.
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retins the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.
http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/sites/chelmsford.gov.uk/files/files/files/documents/files/Euro Election breakdown.csv
The Frinton part of the constituency will be key as well. Currently opposing a Sainsbury's on the grounds that its orange signage isn't in keeping with the locale, it is full of people who have voted Conservative for many years (it has an older population) but who might be tempted to leave for UKIP.
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Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.0 -
Carswell might have a personal vote, but then he stood for election on a Cameroon ticket. How will those Tory voters feel now that he has decided his actual beliefs are in line with UKIP?
I have principles. And, for expediency, I can have others!0 -
Major political parties have survived for the decades in the UK with less than five good people on the frontline.Slackbladder said:
A very good point. Carswell gives UKIP (much needed) depth and gravitas.Patrick said:If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.
They still need about 10 good people in the frontline as MPs though.0 -
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!Grandiose said:
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.AndyJS said:This area is in the Clacton constituency:
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK
New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2012/jul/01/jaywick-sands-most-deprived-uk
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2303489/East-Jaywick-Life-seaside-deprived-village-England.html
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The British Political Right is now officially split.0
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How many by-elections will this be that labour have 'soft-pedalled' on?Omnium said:
It may be that the Tories have to adopt an increasingly Euro-sceptic view. It seems that doing so will help their 2015 chances a little anyway.DavidL said:Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.
Labour won't really like being sidelined in the bye-election, but that's inevitable. Overall this has to be a plus for them though. (I've just backed Ed for next PM @ 1.98 in a small way. ) I wonder though quite what stance Labour will have in 2015 with regards to Europe - if they edge towards euroscepticism too then there's a danger they find themselves in the unpopular place the Tories are, but perhaps a referendum promise might defuse all these dangers for them. (I don't think it'll happen nor that they'd be wise to do so, but who knows)0 -
Stop being silly while crying into your cups.GIN1138 said:
How long until Carswell realise's Farage is only in it for the money and they have a monumental falling out, LOL?Patrick said:If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.
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As it happens, my friend didn't specifically comment on UKIP but on the general rightward drift of Westminster as seen from up here. UKIP is undoubtedly generally regarded here as a firmly right party, closer to the Tories than anyone else, and perception is the issue here, though 'far' was probably the wrong word and I am happy to stand corrected, if you think it better.Socrates said:
Your non-SNP friend must be a left-wing muppet. UKIP are not "far right", and only an idiot with no knowledge of political history or international politics would think otherwise.Carnyx said:
[edit} forgive the interjection: Quite, but it does depend how many moves the viewers look ahead. They could, in particular, think "oooh, that makes a Tory-UKIP pact even more likely". Or they can just look at EWNI as a whole and the increasing dominance of mid- to far-right-wing politics (as a non-SNP friend of mine commented recently), of which UKIP rise is a marker.Patrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
Also, UKIP got a seat in Scotland at the Euros, so it's stupid to say it's just a rUK phenomenon.
I didn't imply UKIP was only an EWNI phenomenon, and agree wholeheartedly it is a UK one (no pun intended). But it is much smaller up here - IIRC LD rather than Tory levels in the Euros which always maximises UKIP success (and their seat almost ended up as another SNP seat). I honestly can't see UKIP as a major factor in the Scottish Parliament and, still less with FPTP, Scottish Westminster seats. So it is the likelihood of English UKIP MPs (plus any likelies in Wales & NI - not sure about them) seats that will have immediate impact.
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Talking of principles, I've never worked out why UKIP don't just stand on a 'we will withdraw' ticket. You don't refer every other policy to the electorate, why bother with that one? They'd be worth a look if they grew a set and did that.0
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This is a complete non-starter.GIN1138 said:2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
It didn't happen in Newark - where the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was 42.3% in 2010, but Labour finished third in the by-election.
It won't happen in Clacton - where the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was 37.9% in 2010. Labour will finish third in the by-election.
Your other two scenarios are both possible. A lot depends on who the Conservative candidate is.0 -
Surely "Quisling" would refer to the Euro-federalists?dyedwoolie said:Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling
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Give him time.GIN1138 said:
How long until Carswell realise's Farage is only in it for the money and they have a monumental falling out, LOL?Patrick said:If UKIP can attract candidates like Carswell it will change UKIP's chances dramatically upwards. He epitomises all of the attributes that UKIP occasionlly get sniped at for. UKIP is growing and becoming a serious party. (Not fully there yet for sure - but it's coming). Policy, image, personnel, gravitas, impact - all will move.
Incidentally, Hannan's just been interviewed and said he's staying put. Didn't sound overtly pleased by the news, neither did Nigel Evans.0 -
Hannan has said repeatedly in his Telegraph blog that he isn't supporting UKIP because the only way you can get a referendum is through the Conservatives.Peter_the_Punter said:
Mike, I've an inkling (and it's no more than that) that there will be another defection, in which case Hannan would be a likely suspect.MikeK said:
You must be tickled pink!
He's also lambasted UKIP for moving away from the referendum and on to ground like education, taxation, etc...
He would look kind of ridiculous is he defected to UKIP now, but who knows. The "Right" generally isn't fit to govern and hasn't been since 1990.
Think I've moved significantly back towards the Labour column for 2015 today.0 -
Very little (other than at the margins dealing with the Benefits issue).MaxPB said:What movement will there ever be on EU immigration? Even German proposals to limit jobless immigrants to 6 months have been met with derision by the EU today, what hope does the UK have of reforming the idiotic free movement of labour rules?
However, why on earth are people so naive as to think that voting UKIP helps with this? The only likely outcome is a Labour government, which is hardly going to help reform, is it? And even if we get a referendum (now looking more unlikely) and that leads to Brexit, why on earth would anyone automatically suppose that Britain would be able to negotiate a deal with our EU frieds that wouldn't include free movement of labour?
We are where we are (thanks, Tony and Gordon). Tilting at windmills won't make the problem go away.0 -
And even if they do get in, we can't rely on them to achieve principled rightwing solutions. They have voluntarily handed powers over to the EU, they have pushed for more spying on innocent British people, they have allowed mass immigration to continue. New Labour-lite isn't a very attractive sales pitch.SeanT said:
Again, it's only stupid if you see the Conservatives as the only way to achieve principled rightwing solutions.DavidL said:Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.
Given that Cameron is very likely to lose in 2015 ANYWAY, then, with respect, I think it's your analysis that lacks intelligence.0 -
Quite. We will be expected to believe that they soft pedalled into third in a seat where UKIP start from zero.Slackbladder said:
How many by-elections will this be that labour have 'soft-pedalled' on?Omnium said:
It may be that the Tories have to adopt an increasingly Euro-sceptic view. It seems that doing so will help their 2015 chances a little anyway.DavidL said:Not good news for the Conservatives , not at all. Carswell has always come across as slightly eccentric but way smarter than the average MP with some interesting ideas as well as some daft ones.
Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has done something so monumentally stupid. A Labour government in 2015, no doubt at the heart of Europe is more likely now. The self destructive obsessive myopia of the right of the Tory party drives me to despair.
Labour won't really like being sidelined in the bye-election, but that's inevitable. Overall this has to be a plus for them though. (I've just backed Ed for next PM @ 1.98 in a small way. ) I wonder though quite what stance Labour will have in 2015 with regards to Europe - if they edge towards euroscepticism too then there's a danger they find themselves in the unpopular place the Tories are, but perhaps a referendum promise might defuse all these dangers for them. (I don't think it'll happen nor that they'd be wise to do so, but who knows)
Anything for political point scoring.0 -
Recently UKIP has been taking almost as many votes from Labour as the Conservatives. It's true that most of the support UKIP already had until a couple of years ago was from the Tories but that has altered dramatically in recent months. They're being particularly successful with people who used to vote Labour 10-15 years ago but haven't bothered voting in the last couple of general elections.BenM said:The British Political Right is now officially split.
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Hannan wasn't exactly gushing with enthusiasm with Cameron, or the Conservatives, when he wrote this:Peter_the_Punter said:
Mike, I've an inkling (and it's no more than that) that there will be another defection, in which case Hannan would be a likely suspect.MikeK said:
You must be tickled pink!
"In fairness, the failure of the two Right-of-Centre parties to reach an accommodation is at least as much David Cameron’s responsibility as Nigel Farage’s. "
"If David Cameron had not offered an In/Out referendum, I would not have been able to fight the recent European election as a Conservative. But he did; and Ukip is in denial about it."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100283493/so-why-dont-you-join-ukip-hannan/
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I did that, at least at the last GE/Euro vote, though I Iive near the geographically opposite end of Essex!Grandiose said:
This part of Essex is the home of the UKIP in Europe, Tories in Westminster voter.0 -
The real winners in all of this
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/08/28/article-2736136-20DDBA1000000578-434_636x382.jpg
The media are now going to spend days talking about Carswell, UKIP, by-election, problem for Cameron, good for Miliband etc... Meanwhile these people will just carry on as if nothing as happened.0 -
I go there a lot for a day out on the beach, but it's the most dreadfully sleepy place the rest of the time for younger people like me.isam said:
Frinton is very nice indeed... And if Sean Fear, Socrates and I go canvassing I suggest we go there!!!!Grandiose said:
It has some of the worst performing schools, as well (not sure I'd go as far as the DM, but maybe that's because I have family there). Clacton proper is mixed and the northern part of the constituency well off and older.AndyJS said:This area is in the Clacton constituency:
"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK
New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2012/jul/01/jaywick-sands-most-deprived-uk
"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2303489/East-Jaywick-Life-seaside-deprived-village-England.html0 -
I have quite a bit of time for Carswell, even though I find some of his ideas silly, and that he has had the guts to do this speaks pretty well of him. I imagine there are quite a few Con MPs with similar views who are prepared to sit within a Cameroon led party that is at odds with their values, and hope for a return to their own at a future date, rather than risk standing for another party which has a far harder job to win any seats, despite their impressive polling.0
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TBF he's written quite a lot about what he personally believes in, and the things he's really big on, like recall powers, were in Cameron's manifesto, but _Cameron_ didn't deliver them. _And_ he's calling a by-election to give voters a chance to reject the platform he'll be switching to.dyedwoolie said:Carswell might have a personal vote, but then he stood for election on a Cameroon ticket. How will those Tory voters feel now that he has decided his actual beliefs are in line with UKIP?
I have principles. And, for expediency, I can have others!0 -
A true earthquake today in political terms -
Springtime for UKIP, Winter for Cameron.0 -
Because (a) some of us are capable of a long term strategy for this country beyond the next parliament and (b) the EU has several free trade deals that do not include free movement of labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
Very little (other than at the margins dealing with the Benefits issue).MaxPB said:What movement will there ever be on EU immigration? Even German proposals to limit jobless immigrants to 6 months have been met with derision by the EU today, what hope does the UK have of reforming the idiotic free movement of labour rules?
However, why on earth are people so naive as to think that voting UKIP helps with this? The only likely outcome is a Labour government, which is hardly going to help reform, is it? And even if we get a referendum (now looking more unlikely) and that leads to Brexit, why on earth would anyone automatically suppose that Britain would be able to negotiate a deal with our EU frieds that wouldn't include free movement of labour?
We are where we are (thanks, Tony and Gordon). Tilting at windmills won't make the problem go away.
Incidentally, why are you blaming Tony and Gordon for free movement of labour from poor Eastern states? They are to blame for many things, but not this.0 -
O/T - it's astonishing. Less than 5 years ago, Socrates, Sean Fear, Sean Thomas (usually) and myself were regularly posting here lamenting Labour and looking forward to a Conservative win in 2010.
Now, we're rooting for UKIP. Cameron should never have lost any of us.0 -
No, it refers to the desire amongst 'the people's revolution' to assist and enable a left wing demolition of the UK economy and independence.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Surely "Quisling" would refer to the Euro-federalists?dyedwoolie said:Boris for Clacton, squash the Quisling
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Has anyone any detailed analysis of the potential impact this Carswell Tory bombshell is likely to have on swingback's gradual process?0
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Newark is far more prosperous than Clacton, so yes, I think Carswell will hold it for UKIP.Casino_Royale said:Exciting news. I've always admired (and liked) Carswell. I wish him well.
However, do people really think he'll hold? The seat profile looks very similar to Newark to me, albeit Carswell has a much higher personal vote.
I think the Tories will throw the kitchen sink at it, and they could edge it.
I think it'll be close with the winner in the 30s.
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On the other hand if UKIP don't win their whole 2015 GE campaign just looks like bollocks.0
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