politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip gets its first MP – Douglas Carswell defects from the
MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to #Ukip
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Pching ! :-)0
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Not the most obvious potential defector.0
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Bloody Hell
Going to have to dig through the betting archives to work out if this is a winner or loser or no difference for me.
Does this trigger a by-election ?0 -
Only if he wants it to.Pulpstar said:Bloody Hell
Going to have to dig through the betting archives to work out if this is a winner or loser or no difference for me.
Does this trigger a by-election ?
Which he might.0 -
Excellent news for UKIP - Dire for the Conservatives.0
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A comfortable hold for UKIP, I should think.0
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He's not the first UKIP MP, Bob Spink defected to UKIP in 2008.0
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And just as the English Channel gets a little bit wider, a geologist finds yet another sphere where Scotland trumps our southern neighbour.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-289656180 -
Hehe this is fun.
Go on Righties, split 50/50 and let Lab sneak through the middle, do it...0 -
From the Speccie:
Update, 11.15: Carswell has announced that he is forcing a by-election in his constituency. This is a real Black Swan moment for David Cameron.
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Conservative MP Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Tories and joining UKIP.
The MP For Clacton in Essex said he made the decision because he believes UKIP is the only party that can break up the "cosy Westminster elite".
Flanked by his new party leader Nigel Farage, Mr Carswell said he would resign from Parliament and stand for UKIP in a by-election.
More follows...
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Kerching a winner and a by-election0
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This will be an easy hold for Carswell in the general election IMO. The by-election will be even easier.0
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Carswell is revealing that Cameron doesn't want any change in the EU, and is doing everything to stay in
UKIP 10-15% 15/8 Ladbrokes looks good... Have a saver on the 9/2 15-20%0 -
Carswell is a proper MP, unlike a career driven non-entity.
Tories attack him at your peril. This could rip the right apart.0 -
@MikeSmithson If UKIP don't win this by election, I will admit it is a disappointing result
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What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?0
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Bah thats no UKIP winner By Election till GE2015 a loser ><0
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It should be a cracking contest.TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative MP Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Tories and joining UKIP.
The MP For Clacton in Essex said he made the decision because he believes UKIP is the only party that can break up the "cosy Westminster elite".
Flanked by his new party leader Nigel Farage, Mr Carswell said he would resign from Parliament and stand for UKIP in a by-election.
More follows...
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Yes, he is. UKIP have far more principles than the rest of the careerist sycophants in parliament.TheWatcher said:
Will he do the decent thing and stand in a by election?volcanopete said:Carswell joins Ukip #radio 5live Tory MP joins Ukip.
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Indeed so.Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
I trust any PBers with non-taxpayer backed pensions have been heeding my warnings over the last few months.0 -
Yahoooo! It is like that scene from Dr Strangelove where he rides the atomic bomb.Richard_Nabavi said:From the Speccie:
Update, 11.15: Carswell has announced that he is forcing a by-election in his constituency. This is a real Black Swan moment for David Cameron.
http://derekbateman.co.uk/2014/03/31/dr-strangelove/0 -
Nobody likes a perfidious splitter dirty rat.
Remember Carswell biggest political achievement is making John Bercow speaker.
Well played Douglas.0 -
"Net migration to UK soars by 39% to 243,000
Theresa May's vow to reduce Britain's net migration to under 100,000 in tatters after ONS says figure rose 68,000 in last year"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/28/uk-net-migration-soars-to-243000-theresa-may0 -
Honestly this is great news for UKIP and bad news for the Tories and Dave.
I really like Carswell.0 -
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
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Tendring District Count 2014
Name of Registered Party
Number of Votes
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now
704
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
410
Christian Peoples Alliance
263
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe
9981
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean!
550
Green Party
2604
Labour Party
5241
Liberal Democrats
848
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights
119
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
19,398
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Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!
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Not only that, but Cameron is clearly not prepared to walk the walk on immigration. Net immigration has barely changed four years into the coalition. The Tories just don't cut it any more.isam said:Carswell is revealing that Cameron doesn't want any change in the EU, and is doing everything to stay in
UKIP 10-15% 15/8 Ladbrokes looks good... Have a saver on the 9/2 15-20%0 -
Carswell: "It’s nice to have a leader with whom I agree." Farage quips: "It's early days."0
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When is the election likely to be? I'm tempted to go and canvass for the guy.Sean_F said:
Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!0 -
Well the by election will be after the Indyref0
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Ironic that Carswell was talking about safe seats, whilst fritty Farage fishes around for a constituency he stands any hope of winning in.0
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Who wants to make a price in this by election?0
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If Carswell wins (and that's a jolly good chance), then this could blow the dam for UKIP winning many many seats at the GE.0
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Crazy news. Selfish and stupid by Carswell. Should have done it after the election. This opens the door for Labour and will start Tory infighting over the EU again.0
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Useless fact about Clacton: the singer Sade (Helen Adu) grew up in the constituency. Her family lived in Holland-on-Sea, which is an eastern suburb of the town.0
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I'd be surprised if it happens - voters will always reward parties that stay united and punish those which don't. I have no strong views about Carswell either way - but he has made a big mistake today.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.0 -
FPT Carswell: "I want change. We have had a duopoly. They are just taking turns of sitting on a sofa"0
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Carswell should win the by-election easily and retain the seat at the GE.
Anybody who followed my advice yesterday to buy UKIP >1 to 5 seats on Betfair got their timing perfectly right. Most of the value has now gone but maybe the 9/4 is still worth taking.0 -
Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Douglas Carswell a big catch. Eloquent advocate of open, liberal optimistic EU-scepticism. But v.different immig views to medían ukip voter0 -
FPT @Socrates If UKIP now have an MP, that's the last barrier for them getting a place in the debates surpassed, unless it's a real stitch-up.
Not so fast - he's resigning and restanding in a by-election.
But it does make the case for 2 debates: (1) as a 4 way between the 4 significant national parties (sorry Neil) and (2) a head to head with Miliband vs Cameron as the most likely PMs.
I'd probably use criteria such as:
to qualify for debate (1) standing in >50% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging > 10% in poll of polls [to be defined but the obvious ones] in the 12 months prior to announcement for the election
to qualify for debate (2) standing in >75% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging >25%...0 -
Any word on by-election timing?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Max, I pretty much agree. Unless there's a Yes or a shock defeat for Carswell in the by-election, the next election is far likelier to see a Labour majority now.
Principles are nice, but there is a line when adhering to them amounts to stupidity. A vegetarian who starves to death whilst ignoring a bacon sandwich isn't an advert for ideology.
There's not only the EU, but also the Scottish vote. This may have no impact north of the border, but if it does it will only help Yes and potentially destroy the UK as it currently exists.0 -
What are you talking about? South Thanet has a 7,000 majority. And Farage has clear connections to the place, having stood there before.TheWatcher said:Ironic that Carswell was talking about safe seats, whilst fritty Farage fishes around for a constituency he stands any hope of winning in.
Tories on here are getting really desperate today. It was your fault the Right got split, because you comprehensively failed to do anything about conservative concerns on civil liberties, on the EU, on immigration. Rather than be spiteful to the party actually representing those concerns, perhaps you could try addressing them...0 -
I'll be out canvassing too.Socrates said:
When is the election likely to be? I'm tempted to go and canvass for the guy.Sean_F said:
Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!
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He's done the proper thing in resigning and forcing a by-election. Of course it probably suits UKIP to do that anyway.
Will be very interesting to see how this develops. I presume we'll see a fairly anti-European Tory message.0 -
Carswell is well liked in these parts.
But I'm waiting to hear what Bernard Jenkin as to say. They've done wuite a lot of campaigning/fund-raising together.0 -
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
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Somewhat surprising announcement, especially the timing.
Will Hannan follow ?0 -
According to Lord Ashcroft (?)
UKIP 1/3
Con 5/2
Lab 100/10 -
I'm trying hard to think of a positive out of this for the Tories. I can't.0
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If we have four parties present (and we should), I think we would need two debates to cover all their points on all policy areas. Two debates with the four largest parties and one Cameron vs Miliband seems fair.Charles said:FPT @Socrates If UKIP now have an MP, that's the last barrier for them getting a place in the debates surpassed, unless it's a real stitch-up.
Not so fast - he's resigning and restanding in a by-election.
But it does make the case for 2 debates: (1) as a 4 way between the 4 significant national parties (sorry Neil) and (2) a head to head with Miliband vs Cameron as the most likely PMs.
I'd probably use criteria such as:
to qualify for debate (1) standing in >50% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging > 10% in poll of polls [to be defined but the obvious ones] in the 12 months prior to announcement for the election
to qualify for debate (2) standing in >75% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging >25%...0 -
It didn't even come close to happening in Newark, which was far more favourable to Labour, so there's absolutely zero chance of it happening in Clacton.Hugh said:Hehe this is fun.
Go on Righties, split 50/50 and let Lab sneak through the middle, do it...
I reckon UKIP and the Conservatives will probably take at least 70% of the vote between them in Clacton, just as they did in Newark. Labour will finish a poor third.0 -
If elected, I'd expect the Mr Carswell to have an influence on the UKIP 2015 manifesto.
Direct Democracy is a good angle for UKIP, as it can unify both Labour and Tory leaning supporters.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/5329377/My_plan_to_rescue_Britain_in_just_12_months/
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I'll have to see what my work schedule looks like, but keep me informed.Sean_F said:
I'll be out canvassing too.Socrates said:
When is the election likely to be? I'm tempted to go and canvass for the guy.Sean_F said:
Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!
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Yikes!
Carswell an all round good egg. Sensible, moral, likeable, right about things. This will change the GE result I think (along with Rotherham). EICIPM much more likely.
Winners: Carswell, Farage, BoJo, Miliband
Losers: Dave, the cosy Westminster PC consensus / business as usual
I'm also left wondering about Daniel Hannan. Carswell and Hannan are joined at the hip politically and BFFs. A Hannan defection would be equally sensational.0 -
FPT @malcolmg
I don't want to drag Scotland on to a much more interesting thread.
But "refute that if you can" was the challenge.
Of course 5,000 jobs are not the "top jobs". But they are the ecosystems that supports the CEO's office. And they are all well paid. It will be a significant economic loss to Scotland.
I can respect the argument that it's a price worth paying. But to pretend it's not going to happen is just foolish.0 -
I imagine Carswell will romp the by-election (but the Tories will decide when it's held...perhaps sooner the better and get it out of the way), UKIP will have another bouncette....small earthquake in Clacton...and the caravan moves on. Annoying and distracting for us blues but hardly seismic. I will win my May 2015 bets with tim.0
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The timetable is slightly longer now than it used to be.Morris_Dancer said:Any word on by-election timing?
From UKPR:
"The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days."0 -
Err, the Conservatives are doing something abut the EU. A referendum in 2017.Socrates said:
Tories on here are getting really desperate today. It was your fault the Right got split, because you comprehensively failed to do anything about conservative concerns on civil liberties, on the EU, on immigration. Rather than be spiteful to the party actually representing those concerns, perhaps you could try addressing them...
On civil liberties, to claim UKIP are 'addressing concerns' is just a joke. Only a few days ago Farage was advocating citizens being stripped of their citizenshp by executive fiat.
On immigration, the government is reducing non-EU immigration (as much as it can within the constraints of coalition with a pro-immigration party). That is all it can do until we've sorted out the EU aspect.
But go ahead, put the two Eds into Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street. I'm sure that will address your concerns.0 -
I can't see Hannan going - he's made several blog posts saying why he's sticking with the Tories.Patrick said:Yikes!
Carswell an all round good egg. Sensible, moral, likeable, right about things. This will change the GE result I think (along with Rotherham). EICIPM much more likely.
Winners: Carswell, Farage, BoJo, Miliband
Losers: Dave, the cosy Westminster PC consensus / business as usual
I'm also left wondering about Daniel Hannan. Carswell and Hannan are joined at the hip politically and BFFs. A Hannan defection would be equally sensational.0 -
UKIP hold0
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Ladbrokes going 1/3 Carswell to win the by-election.Hugh said:According to Lord Ashcroft (?)
UKIP 1/3
Con 5/2
Lab 100/1
Seems fair enough to me.
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Cheers, Mr. JS.0
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A quarter of a million people immigrating to the UK in the last 12 months is a shocking figure given the Tories' promises about reducing the level.0
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It won't overinfluence Scotland, but it lets Labour quietly out of the gathering mire of Rotheram.Sean_F said:
I don't see why this should have any bearing on the Scottish vote.SeanT said:
No. See below. Scotland.Slackbladder said:
Sadly true as well...Hugh said:What's that sound I hear? Ed Miliband p!ssing himself with laughter?
Losing a good MP to UKIP is jolly bad news for Cameron.
Losing Scotland forever is catastrophic for Labour.
The latter is made more probable by the former.
I did wonder if a big vote for UKIP in England in May would boost the Yes camp, but it made no difference.
I think the timing's a bit daft, if he'd have left Rotherham run for another week, Labour would be struggling to keep the seat.0 -
I will too... Not far from me, let's arrange a drink or something to organise?Sean_F said:
I'll be out canvassing too.Socrates said:
When is the election likely to be? I'm tempted to go and canvass for the guy.Sean_F said:
Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!0 -
I think there is a very good chance.Alanbrooke said:Somewhat surprising announcement, especially the timing.
Will Hannan follow ?
Take the Betfair prices while you can. On reflection, anything above evens on the 1to5 seat market is now value.
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What about the Greens given they already have an MP?Socrates said:
If we have four parties present (and we should), I think we would need two debates to cover all their points on all policy areas. Two debates with the four largest parties and one Cameron vs Miliband seems fair.Charles said:FPT @Socrates If UKIP now have an MP, that's the last barrier for them getting a place in the debates surpassed, unless it's a real stitch-up.
Not so fast - he's resigning and restanding in a by-election.
But it does make the case for 2 debates: (1) as a 4 way between the 4 significant national parties (sorry Neil) and (2) a head to head with Miliband vs Cameron as the most likely PMs.
I'd probably use criteria such as:
to qualify for debate (1) standing in >50% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging > 10% in poll of polls [to be defined but the obvious ones] in the 12 months prior to announcement for the election
to qualify for debate (2) standing in >75% of seats nationally (ex NI) plus averaging >25%...0 -
Presumably it hasn't just occurred to Carswell to do this. I wonder if UKIP have got any more of these saved up to release at an opportune time and keep their momentum going.0
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Mr Hannan wrote a lengthy piece in the DT last week explaining why he's not joining UKIP. I assume in light of Mr Carswell's defection, Daniel was getting his ducks in a row so there wasn't a load of He Is Too speculation after the event.TheScreamingEagles said:Nobody likes a perfidious splitter dirty rat.
Remember Carswell biggest political achievement is making John Bercow speaker.
Well played Douglas.0 -
If the Tories want to hold the seat, they'll need to put Hannan and Jenkin (assuming they're on board) front and centre.Socrates said:
I can't see Hannan going - he's made several blog posts saying why he's sticking with the Tories.Patrick said:Yikes!
Carswell an all round good egg. Sensible, moral, likeable, right about things. This will change the GE result I think (along with Rotherham). EICIPM much more likely.
Winners: Carswell, Farage, BoJo, Miliband
Losers: Dave, the cosy Westminster PC consensus / business as usual
I'm also left wondering about Daniel Hannan. Carswell and Hannan are joined at the hip politically and BFFs. A Hannan defection would be equally sensational.0 -
Very pleased to see the news of the Carswell defection. He has always been my favourite Tory MP. Even more pleased to see he has the courage of his convictions and is actually resigning his seat to fight it again. This is entirely in line with his political philosophy and shows honesty and a commitment to his principles.
Funnily enough I don't believe MPs should have to resign their seat if they cross the floor since they are elected as individual representatives. But Carswell has always maintained that they should and is living up to his beliefs.
I do wish he were my MP.0 -
Yep...My guess would be there's been plenty of discussions about this, and Hannan knew about this move well before today.Plato said:
Mr Hannan wrote a lengthy piece in the DT last week explaining why he's not joining UKIP. I assume in light of Mr Carswell's defection, Daniel was getting his ducks in a row so there wasn't a load of He Is Too speculation after the event.TheScreamingEagles said:Nobody likes a perfidious splitter dirty rat.
Remember Carswell biggest political achievement is making John Bercow speaker.
Well played Douglas.0 -
Douglas Carswell: the first UKIP MP since Robert Spink in 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink0 -
I'm sure Dan Hodges is already in the midst of writing an article about why this is terrible news for Ed Miliband0
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SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.0 -
I like Carswell. One of the few MPs I have had personal correspondence with and as said below, he has the courage of his convictions.
This leaves me torn - think continuation of the Coalition is the best option for the country now, think I want to see him win this by-election.0 -
"I do wish he were my MP."Richard_Tyndall said:Very pleased to see the news of the Carswell defection. He has always been my favourite Tory MP. Even more pleased to see he has the courage of his convictions and is actually resigning his seat to fight it again. This is entirely in line with his political philosophy and shows honesty and a commitment to his principles.
Funnily enough I don't believe MPs should have to resign their seat if they cross the floor since they are elected as individual representatives. But Carswell has always maintained that they should and is living up to his beliefs.
I do wish he were my MP.
You can solve that by moving to Clacton ;-)0 -
I don't think it's at all a given that this is a Carswell/UKIP Hold.
Labour and Lib-Dems received very significant 16,000+ vote's in 2010.
You have to assume that out of 22,000+ votes that the Conservatives received a significant amount will go off to UKIP with Carswell, but there will be plenty who remain with the Tories as well, IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There are many options here that look plausible to me:
1. UKIP/Carswell retains the seat.
2. With the Con/UKIP vote split and Labour's vote increased due to 2010 Lib's returning to Labour, Labour comes through the middle.
3. You get anti UKIP tactical voting from Lab and Lib's (there was some evidence of this happening in Newark) and the Conservative's retain the seat with Lab/Lib help.
I don't think this will be a "gimme" for UKIP.0 -
I wonder if there will be others.0
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Labour's candidate.Tim Young,locally educated, Labour group leader for Colchester.
http://www.harwichandmanningtreestandard.co.uk/news/eveninggazettenews/10848505.Tim_Young_selected_as_Labour_candidate_for_Clacton/
The Tories are left with a real selection headache.If they go down the route of South Thanet and field an identikit Ukip candidate to Carswell they lose the progressive vote.If they field a soft Cameroon,their right flank is similarly exposed.This is effectively a choice of political suicide.I think it reasonable to think the Tories are going to get squeezed either way and therefore predict the Tories will not win this bye-election.
The big question is whether this switch from Tory to Ukip turns from a trickle into a flood.Where's the betting on who will the next Tory MP to defect to Ukip?0 -
GE2015 will be the really fun in Clacton. I expect Mr Carswell to win this by-election and win again as Kipper next May, but what sort of effort the Blue Team put up against him will be fascinating.AndyJS said:Douglas Carswell: the first UKIP MP since Robert Spink in 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink0 -
What movement will there ever be on EU immigration? Even German proposals to limit jobless immigrants to 6 months have been met with derision by the EU today, what hope does the UK have of reforming the idiotic free movement of labour rules?Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, the Conservatives are doing something abut the EU. A referendum in 2017.Socrates said:
Tories on here are getting really desperate today. It was your fault the Right got split, because you comprehensively failed to do anything about conservative concerns on civil liberties, on the EU, on immigration. Rather than be spiteful to the party actually representing those concerns, perhaps you could try addressing them...
On civil liberties, to claim UKIP are 'addressing concerns' is just a joke. Only a few days ago Farage was advocating citizens being stripped of their citizenshp by executive fiat.
On immigration, the government is reducing non-EU immigration (as much as it can within the constraints of coalition with a pro-immigration party). That is all it can do until we've sorted out the EU aspect.
But go ahead, put the two Eds into Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street. I'm sure that will address your concerns.0 -
Carswell is the sort of politician we need more of, on both left and right. Decent, honest, hardworking, and independently minded. I may not agree with everything he says, but I like his honesty, especially his decision to put his job on the line.
I hope he gets back in.0 -
My guess at SeanT reasoning is it would be seen north of the border as rUK swinging right, but given the referendum is on 18th and presumably any by-election after that date given the required timescale it'll have little impactPatrick said:SeanT
Out of interest why do you see this as being good for a Scottish YES?
I see it as making MIliband much more likely to be PM and the 'risk of a Tory PM' being much reduced. The Tory scare was always a YES selling point - it has diminished.
Unless there's more in the pipeline.
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Good idea.isam said:
I will too... Not far from me, let's arrange a drink or something to organise?Sean_F said:
I'll be out canvassing too.Socrates said:
When is the election likely to be? I'm tempted to go and canvass for the guy.Sean_F said:
Labour will likely get squeezed in this contest.SeanT said:This will be a blistering by election. EU Immigration and Rotherham all in the mix.
Explosive.
This looks like great news for Miliband - UNLESS it makes an indyref YES more likely, in which case it's dreadful news for Miliband.
Fascinating!
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Boris should stand for the Tories!0
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Miliband would be well advised to leave this by-election well alone.
If UKIP splits the right-wing vote and lets Labour in, the Conservatives will repeat that message every single hour of the General Election campaign - "Vote UKIP, get Miliband" - and people will believe them.
The best result for Labour in Clacton would be a narrow UKIP win, Conservatives second.
(Incidentally, has anyone noticed that "Michael Green" fought Clacton for the LibDems in 2010? I guess if you have an alter ego, it might as well belong to another party...)0 -
I shouldn't be too pleased if I were Ed Milliband. Anything that raises UKIP's profile threatens Labour's hold on South Yorkshire.0 -
Oh dear - he can't be that good!Alanbrooke said:
"I do wish he were my MP."Richard_Tyndall said:Very pleased to see the news of the Carswell defection. He has always been my favourite Tory MP. Even more pleased to see he has the courage of his convictions and is actually resigning his seat to fight it again. This is entirely in line with his political philosophy and shows honesty and a commitment to his principles.
Funnily enough I don't believe MPs should have to resign their seat if they cross the floor since they are elected as individual representatives. But Carswell has always maintained that they should and is living up to his beliefs.
I do wish he were my MP.
You can solve that by moving to Clacton ;-)0 -
Presumably this is too late to have the by-election on the Scottish referendum date? How much after would it have to be?0
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Austin Mitchell?edmundintokyo said:Presumably it hasn't just occurred to Carswell to do this. I wonder if UKIP have got any more of these saved up to release at an opportune time and keep their momentum going.
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@JohnO
"...small earthquake in Clacton...and the caravan moves on."
I see you are familiar with the place, Lord Hersham.0 -
Carswell's constituency chairman aint happy.0
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I wonder if the UKIP plan is to hold the by-election a few days before the Tory conference. That would be Thursday 25th September, with the conference starting on Sunday 28th.
Although perhaps that wouldn't be possible with the new timetable for by-elections.0
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