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The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Bong
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    rcs1000 said:

    I very much doubt he flew California to London by private jet. Even the billionaires I know tend to fly super long haul on traditional airlines. (Admittedly, right at the pointy end of the plane.)
    The cockpit?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    There's Avoch on the black isle, pron Och, and there's a place in Avoch called Rosehaugh, pron Rose och.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Bong

    Is that an offer?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    Drakeford closing nightclubs from Dec 27th.

    https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1471601029955399680
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    geoffw said:

    and that Kansas City is not in Kansas, and not even in Arkansas.

    There are two Kansas Cities in Kansas City. The smaller one is in Kansas. Each has their own mayor.
    Meanwhile Arkansas City is in Kansas. Wonder how they pronounce it?
  • nico679 said:

    Higher than normal turnout for a by-election would make the Tories nervous . It would suggest a lot of people wanting to prove a point .

    Maybe. But it may also suggest Tories rallying round.

    I'm always very sceptical about predictions based on overall turnout. You can infer anything - and sometimes you'll be right, sometimes wrong.

    Timing of turnout can be relevant - in general, brisk early mornings and evenings are bad for the Tories, whereas steady flow over the day is good for them (due to retired contingent versus working age). But, witrh working from home, that probably doesn't hold as true.
  • I do like that, whenever this kind of thing is reported, it's "Senior Tories".

    If you want an insight in these circumstances, the person with the best idea is the nerd on the computer in the corner of the party HQ. It's not the bloody Secretary of State for Transport or whatever - they don't have a scooby.
    That's unfair.

    If you wanted somebody who had a scooby about Transport policy you wouldn't be going to the Secretary of State for Transport either.
  • It's always pronounced "Theydon Boyz" - or at least that's how the automated Central Line announcer lady pronounces it.
    Norman French, innit. Pronounced the way it's spelt. The gallic language went downhill after Parisians got their hands on it, leaving bits out and pronouncing the rest with a lazy nasal drawl. There's a place round here called Beausale, pronounced Bew-sail, not because Warwickshire folk are unlearned but because they have long memories.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Drakeford closing nightclubs from Dec 27th.

    https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1471601029955399680

    If you are serious about stopping spread etc, you sort of have to ask the question why not now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    @Andy_JS staggered out of a pub in the constituency earlier I believe.

    Does that count?
    No exit polls, just gossip.
  • geoffw said:

    and that Kansas City is not in Kansas, and not even in Arkansas.

    Pendant alert - there IS a Kansas City, Kansas. It's a suburb of Kansas City, Missouri.

    Kansas City, Kansas (Wyandotte County) is traditionally the most Democratic turf in the Sunflower State.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    Bong

    You need several watching NUFC.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    De Beauvoir Town, which is around the corner from me in London, is properly pronounced De Beaver Town, hence the colourful beer which was first brewed there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    Leon said:

    EXACTLY like me!!

    Try it. Can it get any worse? It might just get better. And it might get a lot better. If we cannot expand our literal horizons, we can explore within our souls, and no one can stop us with a fucking quarantine
    Midget gems for me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    De Beauvoir Town, which is around the corner from me in London, is properly pronounced De Beaver Town, hence the colourful beer which was first brewed there.

    Love Beavertown Brewery
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    Bang goes my plan to get off my tits for New Years in Abergavenny.
    You're only 25 miles from Hereford, where you'll be able to get absolutely **** faced.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    dr_spyn said:

    Drakeford closing nightclubs from Dec 27th.

    https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1471601029955399680

    If you are going to do it, do it now. Omicron is spreading rapidly. Why wait 12 more days?
  • Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    1m
    I: UK shuts down in bid to save Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Bang goes my plan to get off my tits for New Years in Abergavenny.

    You might laugh but there's loads of jobs in Cardiff that depend on nightlife. Don't see how he funds this without Rishi agreeing or Wales paying for it with a special tax.
  • If you are going to do it, do it now. Omicron is spreading rapidly. Why wait 12 more days?
    Bonkers.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307

    Bang goes my plan to get off my tits for New Years in Abergavenny.
    Just waiting for that old fool to close down the hills and mountains again.
  • If you are going to do it, do it now. Omicron is spreading rapidly. Why wait 12 more days?
    All that is going to happen is everybody makes sure they are out this weekend and run up to Christmas, and then house parties from then on.
  • You're only 25 miles from Hereford, where you'll be able to get absolutely **** faced.
    If Johnson doesn't close them next week.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    South Africa has just reported 24,758 cases that is down from 26,389 reported yesterday and and compares to 22,388 last Thursday.

    Never read too much in to one days data, but this is an indication that SA as a whole may be peeking/have peeked.
  • I'm quite the expert in Scottish names thanks to having Scottish bosses for most of my professional career.

    They were absolutely no fecking help when I had to deal with a Scotsman with the surname Balloch.
    I thought that was a Pakistani surname. I went to school with an Altaf Baloch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824

    I probably should have held my nerve rather than taking the profit.

    Come on Yellow Peril. 🔶
    Oh so you did lump on them. That's a relief.
  • De Beauvoir Town, which is around the corner from me in London, is properly pronounced De Beaver Town, hence the colourful beer which was first brewed there.

    Coffee shop across the street from me offers a "Chumley" (frappucino) in tribute of the old aristo English family, Cholmondeley.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Shapps has never had a scooby to be fair.

    One hopes that the story tomorrow morning is that the Tories would have got away with it, if it wasn’t for those pesky Libs.
    I didn’t get a single bloody like for this.
    I’m wasted here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Love Beavertown Brewery
    Yeah, founded by a certain Robert Plant's son!
  • If Johnson doesn't close them next week.
    Nah Boris is going to wait until January....
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 4/6
    Con 6/4
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    If you are going to do it, do it now. Omicron is spreading rapidly. Why wait 12 more days?
    It may well have peeked and be falling by then!!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    .

    That's the Scots pronounciation.
    Is that a serious comment!? I ask only because my friend's mum was Scots.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,932
    There must surely be a decent politics PhD. in a study of general reliability and efficacy of internet rumours and social media gossip in predicting electoral results.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak disappointed leaders in the hospitality sector by missing an online roundtable discussion, adding to existing frustration that he has failed to offer the sector new financial support https://on.ft.com/3scWjfk
  • Carnyx said:

    Friend of mine - his mum and dad lived there. I recall it as Evsh'm with a long e. Am I wrong?
    The locals pronounce it with three syllables.
  • https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1471603737621934083

    Well they ran a paper candidate campaign, so it's Lib Dems vs Tories now
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    BigRich said:

    It may well have peeked and be falling by then!!!!
    Well quite. I’d not be surprised if the peak is very early Jan. This is going to be a quick, wild ride, that no one wanted to be on.
  • They need to get with the times and adopt a gender neutral pronunciation.
    The other Central Line location is Hainault, which has a different origin than Hainaut (no "l") in Belgium/France.
  • A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    BBC News at 10 has just featured this precise problem. No pub/cafe wants them now - thanks to the cancellations.
  • Judging by the North Shropshire live blog, the locals are extraordinarily dog loving, even my English standards.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338
    Carnyx said:

    Is that a serious comment!? I ask only because my friend's mum was Scots.
    I think so. I have only ever heard it called Eve-sham or Eve-E- shum.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    BBC News at 10 has just featured this precise problem. No pub/cafe wants them now - thanks to the cancellations.

    That doesn't sound like a problem that we as a nation can't solve.
  • I didn’t get a single bloody like for this.
    I’m wasted here.
    Unlike the good people of Abergavenny.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2021
    Tory backbenchers are in danger of coming of a bit like the nutty Republicans....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471604083979169796?t=Q-iKbwFRQlLOi1qXp6Ii8A&s=19
  • Waiting for @RochdalePioneers to explain to us the pronunciation of Gardenstown in Aberdeenshire.
    "Gardenstown". In English...
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,163
    There is a local by-election in Shropshire tonight. But it is a Labour seat so may not give us much steer.
  • Nah Boris is going to wait until January....
    True. I am sticking to my 3rd Jan prediction.

    Lucky I have plenty of bog roll.

    Bit worried about the wine stocks though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    BBC News at 10 has just featured this precise problem. No pub/cafe wants them now - thanks to the cancellations.

    It didn't need an official lockdown. Folk ain't daft.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    It is not terribly well known that Highgate is pronounced High-git.

    I don’t think I’ve ever head someone say this in real life, although the lady on the tube does.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark
  • kinabalu said:

    Oh so you did lump on them. That's a relief.
    Yeah I did. Well I laid the Tories, which is essentially the same thing.

    Tonight I laid the LDs to take the profit as I'm not feeling 100% tonight. I still think the LDs will do it, but I can't complain with a locked-in profit.

    As a result my best result financially would be Labour coming through the middle. Not going to happen, but since both bets were lays any other party like Labour winning would be a double-winner for me. ;)
  • The other Central Line location is Hainault, which has a different origin than Hainaut (no "l") in Belgium/France.
    Do trains still run to Ongar, the famous location for the novel Look Back In Ongar?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338
    Scott_xP said:

    UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak disappointed leaders in the hospitality sector by missing an online roundtable discussion, adding to existing frustration that he has failed to offer the sector new financial support https://on.ft.com/3scWjfk

    I don't see why Johnson should take all the flak. Sunak has been asleep at the wheel.
  • A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    BBC News at 10 has just featured this precise problem. No pub/cafe wants them now - thanks to the cancellations.

    I'm playing a low stakes game of chicken waiting for heavy discounts on party food at the upmarket supermarkets. Stuff the freezer, and it'll be M&S canapés all the way until the Platinum Jubilee at least.
  • Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark

    Greenwich isn't pronounced Green-wich.
  • JACK_W said:

    I wish the PB by-election hold-outs a profitable night and bid all pleasant dreams. :smile:

    Better go to bed before the cricket starts, then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2021
    DW News - Vaccine supply problems in Germany...

    https://youtu.be/_D4gA8BQt7g

    Their plan was to take until March to complete boosters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Maybe. But it may also suggest Tories rallying round.

    I'm always very sceptical about predictions based on overall turnout. You can infer anything - and sometimes you'll be right, sometimes wrong.

    Timing of turnout can be relevant - in general, brisk early mornings and evenings are bad for the Tories, whereas steady flow over the day is good for them (due to retired contingent versus working age). But, witrh working from home, that probably doesn't hold as true.
    It’s been reported as, and is seen as, a critical and potentially portentous by-election; in a settled area like Shropshire I think a lot of voters will want to be part of it, whether protesting or not. So I’d expect a reasonable turnout and don’t read much into it. If the turnout is low it probably hits the LibDems, since they’ll have an army of people trying to get those who pledged support out to vote. If turnout is low it probably means they’ve failed.
  • NS live blog

    10:17pm
    For those of you following us, the word at the count is that it will be a 3am call for the results.

    That's enough time to digest whether it is business as usual for North Shropshire or a huge body blow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
  • MaxPB said:

    That doesn't sound like a problem that we as a nation can't solve.
    LOL! 😋

    I seem to recall a few months ago people saying there'd be a pigs in blanket shortage due to staffing shortages, along with a shortage of turkeys and more. That doesn't seem to have materialised, has it?

  • Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    7m
    Welsh Government hoping to improve on the huge success of its vaccine passports policy with a 'one last boogie before we shut the clubs' Christmas social mixing incentive
    Quote Tweet
    Politics For All
    @PoliticsForAlI
  • Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark

    As a kid, I thought I lived in Acne.
  • "Gardenstown". In English...
    Local to me with odd pronunciations?
    Live in New Pitsligo - either "Pitslyga" or "Cheeyap"
    Fraserburgh is "the Broch" with that soft chhh like in Loch
    Crovie is "Crivvey"
    And my favourite Peterhead - "Pierheeeed"
  • I think so. I have only ever heard it called Eve-sham or Eve-E- shum.
    Eve-er-shum is what the locals think it's called.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    BBC News: Tories "not confident".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    BBC say Tories are nervous, LibDems say it is close.
  • Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark

    Used to tell a Bostonian political hack friend of mine (a Wise Guy as well as a Potato Head) that the proper pronunciation of Falmouth, Mass was "Foul-mouth".
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC say Tories are nervous, LibDems say it is close.

    Yellow peril nailed on....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    Chatting to a friend in Vienna about how their approach is working. They've basically gone for a sharp division - if you refuse to be vaccinated, you basically have to stay at home, but if you have full vaccination you're allowed to do almost anything - the restaurants and Christmas markets are full, big concerts every night (albeit with masks). The far right organised some big anti-vaccine demos with up to 40,000 people, but have been recommending quack cures like horse dewormers which have actually killed two people, so (as with Trump and bleach) they're losing public credibility.

    Nightclubs still shut though, and if you have more than 4 people at home you're responsible for keeping track of who's here and reporting the full list if anyone falls ill. Schools are quarantined if anyone falls ill. So an odd mixture, but she says it's seemed to be working, with cases falling steadily.

    Will Omicron change things? Probably...
  • MaxPB said:

    That doesn't sound like a problem that we as a nation can't solve.
    Funny how things change. Heavily processed products like Pigs in Blankets were going to be in mega short supply back when there was no solution to the labour crisis. Now they will be available cheap because all the catering packs are up for sale.
  • Andy_JS said:

    BBC News: Tories "not confident".

    Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?

    PB Tories: Yeah!

    Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?

    PB Tories: Yeah!

    Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?

    PB Tories: Lean and mean!

    Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? Thompson! HYUFD! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
  • Farooq said:

    All of them?
    Only Boris can reach that many voters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,243

    LOL! 😋

    I seem to recall a few months ago people saying there'd be a pigs in blanket shortage due to staffing shortages, along with a shortage of turkeys and more. That doesn't seem to have materialised, has it?
    I was told by someone in the trade that there are still staffing problems with the low end producers - worst pay, worst conditions, cheapest products.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    Eve-er-shum is what the locals think it's called.
    So they're really just posh Brummies.
  • Yellow peril nailed on....
    Yes. Expectation management at play...
  • Do trains still run to Ongar, the famous location for the novel Look Back In Ongar?
    The Epping-Ongar bit is now a heritage line. I don't know if it's easy to obtain John Osbourne's publications nearby, or if there's a Book Lack In Ongar.
  • THE SUN; It’s beginning to look a Lock like Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday https://t.co/jdqLv8marz
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 1.75
    Con 2.26
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Do trains still run to Ongar, the famous location for the novel Look Back In Ongar?
    That first phrase is pure Betjeman.

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,163
    Jackie Weaver has just endorsed Helen Morgan. A bit late I think.
  • I was told by someone in the trade that there are still staffing problems with the low end producers - worst pay, worst conditions, cheapest products.
    Thats absolutely the case. The industry coped with the production issues by reducing the product range. You can make more of less variants than you can lots of variants when capacity is tight.

    None of it matters now. Will be able to buy 1kg sacks of the things for used LF tests.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    LOL! 😋

    I seem to recall a few months ago people saying there'd be a pigs in blanket shortage due to staffing shortages, along with a shortage of turkeys and more. That doesn't seem to have materialised, has it?
    Happily not, the most likely issue is going to be staff shortages and delivery driver shortages in the few days up to Christmas. Lots of people are getting the Rona right now, anecdotally around half of my friends have had a positive LFT in the last few days from various different events. That's London but the effect will ripple out and with worse timing for the rest of the country. Not getting a positive test result in the next 10 days will be the new national sport.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Lib Dem canvass data from across the constituency on Friday suggested: LDs on 43% & Con 37%

    Big health warning as it ain't scientific

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1471607826522984448
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Source says Tories leaked lots of votes but better than expected performance from Labour depriving LDs of a win

    https://twitter.com/KingRiach/status/1471606078320398339?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    BBC Midlands News: Labour saying turnout was higher than they were expecting.
  • Re: place name pronunciations, years ago during a recount ordered by the US House of Representatives, hilarity ensued (as reflected in the official record) when congressmen discovered that the small town of Paoli, Indiana, was called "Pay-o-la" by the locals.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,243

    If you are serious about stopping spread etc, you sort of have to ask the question why not now.
    The guesstimate that I have heard, which I agree with, is that it fits with what Witty et al talked about in the past - a COVID budget.

    Some things increase R. Some things decrease R. So you "spend" on people meeting relatives. And "save" elsewhere.
  • What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    At declaration which will be bigger, the majority, the reform vote or the Australian first innings?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    IanB2 said:

    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986

    Niche
  • Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    9m
    THE SUN; It’s beginning to look a Lock like Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday
This discussion has been closed.