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The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021

    dr_spyn said:

    Drakeford closing nightclubs from Dec 27th.

    https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1471601029955399680

    If you are serious about stopping spread etc, you sort of have to ask the question why not now.
    The guesstimate that I have heard, which I agree with, is that it fits with what Witty et al talked about in the past - a COVID budget.

    Some things increase R. Some things decrease R. So you "spend" on people meeting relatives. And "save" elsewhere.
    Allowing two weekends of the infamously big time raging before stopping it doesn't seem a senaible use of your budget. The weekend before Christmas is one of the biggest weekends of the year, get it well spread for them to take home to mum and dad, granny etc for Christmas.

    Its the opposite way round. Youngsters getting infected at new year, aren't seeing nan after that.
  • How it started:
    1 October DecrepiterJohnL On Christmas food, we already know there turkey production is down. A shortage of pigs in blankets was forecast this morning.
    5 October RochdalePioneers Its when people can't get Pigs in Blankets that the complaining will start.

    How it's going:
    16 December rottenborough A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    Theydon Bois (HYUFD will know!).
    Theydon Bois is a mixture of new money and old money (it has the highest average house price in Epping Forest). That often influences how you pronounce it
    It's always pronounced "Theydon Boyz" - or at least that's how the automated Central Line announcer lady pronounces it.
    They need to get with the times and adopt a gender neutral pronunciation.
    The other Central Line location is Hainault, which has a different origin than Hainaut (no "l") in Belgium/France.
    Do trains still run to Ongar, the famous location for the novel Look Back In Ongar?
    At weekends and special occasions, eg. run up to Christmas, Epping Ongar Railway run a heritage service. I was an active volunteer in 2012 and 2013.
  • sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
  • IanB2 said:

    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986

    Peak PB.com
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited December 2021

    Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark

    And you don't pronounce the "l" or "r" in Holborn.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Result in a few hours but here are some final thoughts on the North Shropshire by election based on speaking to voters…

    Reasons why Conservatives might lose
    1.Sleaze + partygate
    2.Candidate is from Birmingham ‘he’s not local’
    3.People feel left out of levelling up

    https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1471609406391468041
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    I see a LibDem knocker up is claiming to have found someone who didn’t know there was an election on today….
  • IanB2 said:

    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986

    It is extremely sad that anyone would even keep stats like that :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    9m
    THE SUN; It’s beginning to look a Lock like Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Nothing there, just Sun saying a choice between Christmas parties now or Christmas Day with family
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    No. The best is a LD win, as it helps build credibility behind a potential Labour led government.

    If the LDs lose because Labour “out-performed”, it is a pathetic own-goal by the local Labour Party.
    Nailed on
  • IanB2 said:

    I see a LibDem knocker up is claiming to have found someone who didn’t know there was an election on today….

    A Lib Dem knocker-up fails to recognise sarcasm, more like. No doubt some wry local standing knee-deep in party leaflets said, "By-election? Why did nobody say?"
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Salop CC making fun of the metropolitans. Top trolling of the media.

    https://twitter.com/ShropCouncil/status/1471607727768092681

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Source says Tories leaked lots of votes but better than expected performance from Labour depriving LDs of a win

    https://twitter.com/KingRiach/status/1471606078320398339?s=20

    The high turnout suggests dreaded Conservatives sit on hands didn’t happen. “Vote in By election Chuck? been catching up on Corrie”. (That’s what Salop sound like) Got to be good news for Tories? Plus the fact it’s Labour who revealed it’s been high turnout means they are aware high turnout from their own number gathering sheets. This has to be good vibe for Tories I agree.

    But how does your source would know before piles appear on table it’s been good votes for Labour, as someone in the know can you explain how source knows colour of money before seeing said money?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    MaxPB said:

    A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    BBC News at 10 has just featured this precise problem. No pub/cafe wants them now - thanks to the cancellations.

    That doesn't sound like a problem that we as a nation can't solve.
    LOL! 😋

    I seem to recall a few months ago people saying there'd be a pigs in blanket shortage due to staffing shortages, along with a shortage of turkeys and more. That doesn't seem to have materialised, has it?
    There might have been if Boris hadn't saved Christmas.
  • How it started:
    1 October DecrepiterJohnL On Christmas food, we already know there turkey production is down. A shortage of pigs in blankets was forecast this morning.
    5 October RochdalePioneers Its when people can't get Pigs in Blankets that the complaining will start.

    How it's going:
    16 December rottenborough A week or so I made a joke about pigs in blanket oversupply blocking the supply chain.

    Methinks that circumstances might have changed on the demand side...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    dr_spyn said:

    Salop CC making fun of the metropolitans. Top trolling of the media.

    https://twitter.com/ShropCouncil/status/1471607727768092681

    That happy ending might be a struggle....No shops in Market Drayton these days....
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Con 2.22
    Ld 1.8
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    On a trip up north, my dad asked me to navigate to ‘Annick’. Which I did. He was not amused when we reached said village, as he was wanting directions to Alnwick...
    Norfolk has Happisburgh, known as Haysbrough, and Costessey, known as Cossey.
    And never forget Wolfardisworthy in Devon...
    Happisburgh is beloved by archaeologists. It is the site of the currently oldest evidence for hominids in Northern Europe - around 900,000 years ago. Including the earliest hominid footprints outside Africa - around 800,000 years old.
    900,000 years ago it was called Ug but pronounced Ug.
    There are a surprising number of words in modern English that can be traced to the Stone Age
    Is Stone one of them?
    One, Two, Four, I, You, Who, Whom, Um etc etc
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    As usual at by-elections, the gossip so far is totally contradictory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    THE TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak⁩ in talks on bailout for pubs and restaurants #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1471610604649594881/photo/1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    dr_spyn said:

    Salop CC making fun of the metropolitans. Top trolling of the media.

    https://twitter.com/ShropCouncil/status/1471607727768092681

    It's a Hallmark movie...except in reality it is the plague not the farmer that keeps her from going back to London.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    Naah, I never buy this "good election to lose" shtick. The greatest pleasure is to vanquish your enemies and chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth and see those dear to them bathed in tears, to ride their horses and clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters, and the second greatest is to watch from the sidelines while the LDs do these things for you. They want to see Boris thumped as much as the rest of us.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Its only very recently that I was informed that Southwark isn’t pronounced South-Wark

    And you don't pronounce the "l" or "r" in Holborn.
    The Welsh quarter of Philadelphia boasts a station called Cynwyd which, I'm reliably informed, is pronounced Sinood by the locals. The Welsh original (a village important enough to merit a station on the old Ruabon-Barmouth line) is pronouced Cun-wid.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    IanB2 said:

    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986

    It is extremely sad that anyone would even keep stats like that :D
    Only on PB. 😉
  • dr_spyn said:

    Salop CC making fun of the metropolitans. Top trolling of the media.

    https://twitter.com/ShropCouncil/status/1471607727768092681

    It has never been the same since Vincent passed into the Great Ballot Box in the sky.
  • IanB2 said:

    I see a LibDem knocker up is claiming to have found someone who didn’t know there was an election on today….

    A Lib Dem knocker-up fails to recognise sarcasm, more like. No doubt some wry local standing knee-deep in party leaflets said, "By-election? Why did nobody say?"
    LOL though some people can be genuinely oblivious.

    My favourite example was at the start of my second year at university, October 2001. We were having some drinks in the Union bar and conversation turned to the War (Afghanistan) and somebody said with genuine shock "we're at war!?"

    After having an educated individual somehow miss the fact that we'd gone to war following 9/11, I'm not putting any ignorance past anybody.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    IanB2 said:

    I see a LibDem knocker up is claiming to have found someone who didn’t know there was an election on today….

    Libdems have fine knockers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    The Welsh quarter of Philadelphia boasts a station called Cynwyd which, I'm reliably informed, is pronounced Sinood by the locals. The Welsh original (a village important enough to merit a station on the old Ruabon-Barmouth line) is pronouced Cun-wid.

    Philly sits adjacent to the schuylkill river. Try pronouncing that...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    edited December 2021
    Libby Wiener on ITV news at the count says it looks possible Labour could have deprived the LDs of victory
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    dr_spyn said:

    Drakeford closing nightclubs from Dec 27th.

    https://twitter.com/danwnews/status/1471601029955399680

    If you are serious about stopping spread etc, you sort of have to ask the question why not now.
    The guesstimate that I have heard, which I agree with, is that it fits with what Witty et al talked about in the past - a COVID budget.

    Some things increase R. Some things decrease R. So you "spend" on people meeting relatives. And "save" elsewhere.
    Allowing two weekends of the infamously big time raging before stopping it doesn't seem a senaible use of your budget. The weekend before Christmas is one of the biggest weekends of the year, get it well spread for them to take home to mum and dad, granny etc for Christmas.

    Its the opposite way round. Youngsters getting infected at new year, aren't seeing nan after that.
    Hmmmm

    Politicians spending irresponsibly.

    There is a film at 11, also water is wet and there are rumours that Argentinian nightclub bouncer in the Vatican is a bit Catholic.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    Whoever wins might not matter if these alleged photos of Johnson in a party hat are for real.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    Switcheroo

    Con 1.91
    Ld 2.02
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    No. The best is a LD win, as it helps build credibility behind a potential Labour led government.

    If the LDs lose because Labour “out-performed”, it is a pathetic own-goal by the local Labour Party.
    The alternative view is, longer busted Boris stays, the deeper pit next leader needsto get out?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    Whoever wins might not matter if these alleged photos of Johnson in a party hat are for real.
    There are likely millions of photos of Boris in a party hat
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    HYUFD said:

    Source says Tories leaked lots of votes but better than expected performance from Labour depriving LDs of a win

    https://twitter.com/KingRiach/status/1471606078320398339?s=20

    The high turnout suggests dreaded Conservatives sit on hands didn’t happen. “Vote in By election Chuck? been catching up on Corrie”. (That’s what Salop sound like) Got to be good news for Tories? Plus the fact it’s Labour who revealed it’s been high turnout means they are aware high turnout from their own number gathering sheets. This has to be good vibe for Tories I agree.

    But how does your source would know before piles appear on table it’s been good votes for Labour, as someone in the know can you explain how source knows colour of money before seeing said money?
    If you’ve been involved in the campaign, and especially if you know the area, then you know, assuming you know what you are doing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Something about the headline "Parcel firm couriers throw gifts at walls and insult customers" makes me laugh.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    No. The best is a LD win, as it helps build credibility behind a potential Labour led government.

    If the LDs lose because Labour “out-performed”, it is a pathetic own-goal by the local Labour Party.
    The alternative view is, longer busted Boris stays, the deeper pit next leader needsto get out?
    Yeh, I don’t buy that for a second.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    More money going on Con

    Con 1.7
    Ld 2.36
  • The odds are swinging around on Smarkets. I've managed to get back on the LDs so I'm now on for an even bigger profit than I was before I cashed out, at a lower risk than before I'd cashed out too. Will take that. Think I'll let it ride now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    edited December 2021
    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    Glen Garioch is a lovely malt.
  • ping said:

    More money going on Con

    Con 1.7
    Ld 2.36

    Looks like a feeling Tory has sneaked this one.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    If LDs lose, would Ed Davey face a leadership challenge?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    No. The best is a LD win, as it helps build credibility behind a potential Labour led government.

    If the LDs lose because Labour “out-performed”, it is a pathetic own-goal by the local Labour Party.
    The alternative view is, longer busted Boris stays, the deeper pit next leader needsto get out?
    Yeh, I don’t buy that for a second.
    Sounds like someone trying to play 5D chess....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    My own impression having been there end of last week was that we’d get a Tory win with Lab and Lib Dem votes greater than the maj. But let’s see
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1471612677499797504
  • dr_spyn said:

    If LDs lose, would Ed Davey face a leadership challenge?

    Nope.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Why have the odds just shifted decisively in a Tory direction?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Con 1.64
    Ld 2.6
  • Cash seems to be piling on the Tories. I've just laid the blues some more, but the market seems to think I've called this wrong.

    Come on 🔶 don't let me down now.
  • HYUFD said:

    Libby Wiener on ITV news at the count says it looks possible Labour could have deprived the LDs of victory

    Could be a premonition of 2023/24 in a load of Con/LD seats
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited December 2021

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    No. The best is a LD win, as it helps build credibility behind a potential Labour led government.

    If the LDs lose because Labour “out-performed”, it is a pathetic own-goal by the local Labour Party.
    The alternative view is, longer busted Boris stays, the deeper pit next leader needsto get out?
    Yeh, I don’t buy that for a second.
    Sounds like someone trying to play 5D chess....
    I tend to think that if you can play 2D chess in politics you are likely to outsmart your opposition and most of the media.

    Sadly it doesn’t look like Labour are even capable of that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    I’m not sure ‘just cling on to true Tory blue North Shropshire’ can be considered better than expected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Andy_JS said:

    Why have the odds just shifted decisively in a Tory direction?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448

    Because the titbits of gossip on both sides, such as they are, think the Tories are in with a chance of a hold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    They don't deserve to hold but looks like they might have.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
  • HYUFD said:

    Libby Wiener on ITV news at the count says it looks possible Labour could have deprived the LDs of victory

    Could be a premonition of 2023/24 in a load of Con/LD seats
    If - and its still an if - Labour keep the Tories in the seat, then this needs to be the lesson for both.

    Choose your target seats. And leave off when it isn't one for you.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    Yes that is looking like the result of this election now, as all three parties are predicting same thing, and viewing reporters have said the same thing, and virtually called it. Boris has won, with Labour and Libdems getting high %s.

    However from Libdem point of view, how much of the labour % would have given them win, because it’s unrealistic to expect it to wither away to zilch? Is anything below 7 or 8% just unrealistic to have expected?

    Doesn’t bode well for tactical voting in future, next election dozens of Conservative MPs will survive in the same way happened here tonight.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    I’m not sure ‘just cling on to true Tory blue North Shropshire’ can be considered better than expected.
    Yes; but nobody will care.
    Lab and LD had a chance here, esp after party-gate. Seems like they flunked it.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    IanB2 said:

    If the declaration in this by-election is after 4am, then this will be the first Parliamentary by-election declaration during play in an Ashes series since Knowsley North 1986

    It is extremely sad that anyone would even keep stats like that :D
    What are the odds on the NS majority being less than the Australian 1st innings score?
  • He's back...


  • LD out at 3.

    Punters think they haven't quite done it.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Con 1.43
    Ld 3.2
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    Yes that is looking like the result of this election now, as all three parties are predicting same thing, and viewing reporters have said the same thing, and virtually called it. Boris has won, with Labour and Libdems getting high %s.

    However from Libdem point of view, how much of the labour % would have given them win, because it’s unrealistic to expect it to wither away to zilch? Is anything below 7 or 8% just unrealistic to have expected?

    Doesn’t bode well for tactical voting in future, next election dozens of Conservative MPs will survive in the same way happened here tonight.
    Look at C&A. Labour at 1.6%, down from c. 13%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    He's back...


    But what can he actually do?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.

    The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.

    The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.

    I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.

    The result matters not a jot. Boris has a huge majority, and even a loss is not going to presage his resignation in the New Year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.

    Death takes a while.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
    1. This is a by-election not a GE
    2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019
    3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    I’m not sure ‘just cling on to true Tory blue North Shropshire’ can be considered better than expected.
    Yes; but nobody will care.
    Lab and LD had a chance here, esp after party-gate. Seems like they flunked it.
    But whose the most upset? Tories looking forward to their new leader, or opposition parties quite happy to be facing Busted Boris 🤷‍♀️
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    I’m not sure ‘just cling on to true Tory blue North Shropshire’ can be considered better than expected.
    Yes; but nobody will care.
    Lab and LD had a chance here, esp after party-gate. Seems like they flunked it.
    Time for an AV thread
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Today's RedBox / YouGov

    Lab 37
    Con 32
    LD 10
    Green 7
    REFUK 6
    SNP 5
    Others 3
    Plaid 1
  • One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    When did Corbyn lead on most capable PM
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Labour gain on Boro Council it seems
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Libby Wiener on ITV news at the count says it looks possible Labour could have deprived the LDs of victory

    Could be a premonition of 2023/24 in a load of Con/LD seats
    If - and its still an if - Labour keep the Tories in the seat, then this needs to be the lesson for both.

    Choose your target seats. And leave off when it isn't one for you.
    As I understand it, they did.

    But the local Labour party didn’t get the memo (and selected a strong candidate, besides).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    LD out at 3.

    Punters think they haven't quite done it.

    Based on not much information, it has to be said.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Con 1/2
    Ld 2/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Labour will probably achieve the double

    i) A swing from Labour to the Tories
    ii) More votes than the Tory - Lib Dem gap.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
    1. This is a by-election not a GE
    2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019
    3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
    There's no evidence the LD ceiling is higher than Labour's here based on past results. Just wishful thinking that LDs can hoover up both Tory and Labour votes.

    Labour have over 17k votes in the recent past. The LDs ceiling has been much lower than that before today.

    My money is on the LDs, but Labour should have gone for it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    I’m not sure ‘just cling on to true Tory blue North Shropshire’ can be considered better than expected.
    Yes; but nobody will care.
    Lab and LD had a chance here, esp after party-gate. Seems like they flunked it.
    But whose the most upset? Tories looking forward to their new leader, or opposition parties quite happy to be facing Busted Boris 🤷‍♀️
    I really disagree with this line of thinking.

    Labour needs to demonstrate it has a credible route to power more than it needs to be “facing a busted Boris”.

    Frankly the idea that Boris might be VONCed post a North Shropshire loss is rubbish anyway.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    When did Corbyn lead on most capable PM
    June 2019.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    .

    One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    Come on BJO you undersell your intelligence with such an impish, or otherwise naive comment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    Yes that is looking like the result of this election now, as all three parties are predicting same thing, and viewing reporters have said the same thing, and virtually called it. Boris has won, with Labour and Libdems getting high %s.

    However from Libdem point of view, how much of the labour % would have given them win, because it’s unrealistic to expect it to wither away to zilch? Is anything below 7 or 8% just unrealistic to have expected?

    Doesn’t bode well for tactical voting in future, next election dozens of Conservative MPs will survive in the same way happened here tonight.
    Look at C&A. Labour at 1.6%, down from c. 13%.
    Good point. So it varies place to place on how good candidate is maybe. Or maybe, especially where Labour second such as here, the tactical vote message is not obvious enough.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.

    Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
    That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
    Hardly,

    If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.

    A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.

    My guess is that could well be Truss.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.

    The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.

    The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.

    I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.

    The result matters not a jot. Boris has a huge majority, and even a loss is not going to presage his resignation in the New Year.
    True about it not mattering in the grand scheme of things but Patriotic Labour under new management is going to go from outpolling the LDs by more than 2 to 1 to being outpolled by them by more than 2 to 1.

    SKS useless nonentity skills rear their heads with voters again.

    SKS fans point to the Polls not the real voting ones obviously as his record in actual elections is far worse than "even Corbyn"

  • Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
    The fact that they got more money than all the other parties combined is neither here nor there.
    (almost twice as much as all the other parties combined)
    They nearly got as many votes as all the other parties combined in England, so that doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Quit being shit and unpopular and people will start to vote for you and donate to you.
  • One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    When did Corbyn lead on most capable PM
    June 2019.
    When did Corbyn lead on gross approval
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    A bit of support for the LDs

    Con 1.55/1.65
    Ld 2.58/2.9

    Stupid to trade this market unless you’ve got very good sources inside the hall, imo
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
    1. This is a by-election not a GE
    2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019
    3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
    What does 3. mean Lab we're at nearly 32% less than 5 years ago and the LDs close to lost deposit territory
  • One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    When did Corbyn lead on most capable PM
    June 2019.
    When did Corbyn lead on gross approval
    I don't think he did, but he was tied for the lead on that in May 2019.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    What's the best result for Labour....a small Tory win which keeps Boris in place?

    Whoever wins might not matter if these alleged photos of Johnson in a party hat are for real.
    There are likely millions of photos of Boris in a party hat
    It depends what the date on the Daily Telegraph he is holding states.
  • One thing for certain tonight is that SKS will drop from 2nd place to 3rd and will be nowhere near the 22.1% share of the vote in 2019 (31.7% 2017).

    His record of underperforming "even Corbyn" will yet again be met by silence on here of course.

    When did Corbyn lead on most capable PM
    June 2019.
    Though that was when Mrs May's flush was as Busted as that frankly creepy song where they letch over their teacher.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    The LibDems are already suggesting that if #NorthShropshire stays Tory it will be Labour’s fault.

    Labour MPs believe that's an insult to the voters - and proof the LibDems got high on their own hype when Lab have always had a strong chunk of the vote.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471612116272619520

    Said Labour MPs must be very thick.

    Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
    The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".

    Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
    1. This is a by-election not a GE
    2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019
    3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
    What does 3. mean Lab we're at nearly 32% less than 5 years ago and the LDs close to lost deposit territory
    Labour have never won the seat.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.

    Death takes a while.
    Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
This discussion has been closed.