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The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • Test
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,283
    edited December 2021
    North Shropshire By-Election Live Blog

    https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/

    EDIT - 6:35pm
    "In case you're wondering which way the betting is going now, after a swing to the Conservatives earlier in the week the bookies are now edging back towards the Lib Dems - but it's a mixed bag depending on which bookies you choose to listen to.

    Betfred says the Tories are 8/13 favourites, for example, whereas William Hill offers the same odds on the Lib Dems.

    It's as tight as tight gets."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Has the Starmer surge come to Boris' rescue? I fear the the Lib Dems have been pushed to one side with the PM and LOTO making statements to the nation. Whether or not omicron really matters in the long run it was certainly a good by election strategy.
  • Test

    You might want to test the previous header - it seems to have vanished. :D
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    I've lost the last thread which is just as well.

    Does anyone really believe the LDs will achieve a "wapping" victory or just a "whopping" victory?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,030
    Got LibDems at 12/5 and Conservatives at 6/4. All long as Labour don’t win….
  • Got LibDems at 12/5 and Conservatives at 6/4. All long as Labour don’t win….

    You can back Labour at more than 200/1 if you are worried.

  • John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    46m
    That Tory decline beginning to look like a cliff edge now that the trend line is catching up
  • Got LibDems at 12/5 and Conservatives at 6/4. All long as Labour don’t win….

    :) You are pretty safe there!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    Can still bet 10/11 on LDs with some bookies. I just got some with BF Sports. I suggest this may be worth taking.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,000
    On topic:

    Tories = Delta (add any two letters of choice for the frat house version).
    LDs = Omicron
  • Oooh interesting thread.

    I'm still wary. We've seen some disastrously inaccurate last minute markets in many recent elections.

    But by heck I hope the LibDems pull it off.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?
  • Passed some schoolkids in the street earlier playing football with a box of lateral flow tests if anyone's looking for a heavy-handed dystopic image.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1471551828651393027
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651

    Got LibDems at 12/5 and Conservatives at 6/4. All long as Labour don’t win….

    Paddy Power has the Conservatives in from 7/4 on Sunday to 4/5 now and the LDs out from 4/9 to 10/11.

    Anyone have a market on the size of any majority?
  • Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    1h
    Worrying increase in re-infections in Denmark. We urgently need these data for England, otherwise we may be vastly underestimating case numbers soon.
  • So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...
  • rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
  • So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    It'll be an LD fart then.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    The thread is still there on Vanilla. The header, not so much, though it looks like it was published prematurely in the first place.
  • New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905
  • Double trouble...


  • So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    That's a LD win on average.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Did you forget "innocent face"?
  • On the live blog from North Shropshire, one of the ads is featuring sweatshirt emblazoned "Shit Show Supervisor"

    Is that an official position these days in HMG? Or just one of the PM's funny (because it's too true) nicknames?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    My sources were correct.

    Fabinho, Curtis Jones and Virgil van Dijk will miss tonight’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle United after registering suspected positive tests for COVID-19.

    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpool-fc-statement-covid-19-cases
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    My sources were correct.

    Fabinho, Curtis Jones and Virgil van Dijk will miss tonight’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle United after registering suspected positive tests for COVID-19.

    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpool-fc-statement-covid-19-cases

    You're playing the worst team in the league, I don't think it matters.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    edited December 2021
    Swindon’s game against Walsall off on Saturday. Was originally going to go as my traditional pre crimbo footy, then not fancying it with omicron, now definitely not going... :D
  • Swindon’s game against Walsall off on Saturday. Was originally going to go as my traditional pre crimbo footy, then not fancying it with omicron, now definitely not going... :D

    New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
  • @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?

    A Tory majority of 294,000
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905

    Huzzah! Well done Benitez. Tardy mind.
    Does anyone think we'll have full Christmas fixtures?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651

    New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905

    No sign of any horse race meetings being called off.

    I'm due to be at Lingfield next Monday which I'm told is a "significant public event". They've obviously changed the definition of the latter.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162
    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
  • dixiedean said:

    New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905

    Huzzah! Well done Benitez. Tardy mind.
    Does anyone think we'll have full Christmas fixtures?
    All down to another former Liverpool manager.

    Leicester City FC have a COVID-19 outbreak within the squad which has left the club with an insufficient number of players available to fulfil the match. The club’s first-team training ground was closed this morning to help contain the outbreak.

    I'm expecting the PL to go into hibernation until the new year.
  • According to NS live blog, they're panting to vote at Pant Village Hall.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    My sources were correct.

    Fabinho, Curtis Jones and Virgil van Dijk will miss tonight’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle United after registering suspected positive tests for COVID-19.

    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpool-fc-statement-covid-19-cases

    What's a suspected positive test?
    I mean it's a LFT of course. But that is either positive or not.
    Pedantry over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    The LDs winning by one would be a landslide, so they’re maybe not so far apart.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Sir Keir sends a final reminder to North Shropshire to vote Labour today
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471554336614494216?s=20

    If the Tories scrape home Sir Ed will not be impressed
  • On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    New from Premier League board - 5 Premier League games now off this weekend

    Man United-Brighton
    Southampton-Brentford
    Watford-Palace
    West Ham-Norwich
    Everton-Leicester

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905

    Huzzah! Well done Benitez. Tardy mind.
    Does anyone think we'll have full Christmas fixtures?
    All down to another former Liverpool manager.

    Leicester City FC have a COVID-19 outbreak within the squad which has left the club with an insufficient number of players available to fulfil the match. The club’s first-team training ground was closed this morning to help contain the outbreak.

    I'm expecting the PL to go into hibernation until the new year.
    Yep.
    Just about the only thing EFC have managed competently in recent years is I don't think we've had a single positive player.
    In more than one sense...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?

    Didn't in the end as could not get my account reactivated in time
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir Keir sends a final reminder to North Shropshire to vote Labour today
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471554336614494216?s=20

    If the Tories scrape home Sir Ed will not be impressed

    Pro forma
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Just overlooked some European case data, again boredom and isolation, big Omi has made it to Spain. Massive take off in the case rate, looks the same as ours.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    dixiedean said:

    My sources were correct.

    Fabinho, Curtis Jones and Virgil van Dijk will miss tonight’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle United after registering suspected positive tests for COVID-19.

    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpool-fc-statement-covid-19-cases

    What's a suspected positive test?
    I mean it's a LFT of course. But that is either positive or not.
    Pedantry over.
    Yeah LFT. Becomes confirmed positive with a PCR. Bit like A and B samples for doping lol.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Paddy now have the LDs at 4/7 (from 10/11) with the Conservatives 5/6 (from 4/5).

    This is point-to-point betting - no wonder they have so much money to sponsor ITV Racing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    That's a LD win on average.

    SFAICS reasonable estimates vary from Tory easy win to LD easy win; with the common feature being that there has never been a reasoned explanation as to why in a Tory v Lab seat from day one the LDs have been assumed to be the challengers from nowhere in the polls.

    I say, without confidence, that a Tory win is more likely, and dipped a toe in when they were odds against, on the basis that there are more reasons for a Tory win than any other result, in particular:

    rural
    massive vote
    non urban
    well away from trend setters
    strongly leave
    Labour came second but can't win but could do well
    two non Tory parties to choose from
    LDs have to come from nowhere.

    No other result has that weight of argument behind it. I suggest there is a 60-65% chance of a Tory win.

  • IanB2 said:

    So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    The LDs winning by one would be a landslide, so they’re maybe not so far apart.
    Certainly a swingometer landslide.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
    Scopes Monkey Trial.

    He was the lead prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    🦁 (You work why I posted that, those who are supposed to clever)

    I had many of my best works of witticism in that thread. Probably all of them in fact.

    On this form, goodness help us if Liverpool lose! As I foretold last Sunday.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    HYUFD said:

    Sir Keir sends a final reminder to North Shropshire to vote Labour today
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471554336614494216?s=20

    If the Tories scrape home Sir Ed will not be impressed

    If I lived there I would vote LD and thank SKS for the reminder
  • HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?

    Didn't in the end as could not get my account reactivated in time
    Smart, keeping your fingerprints off the crime scene.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    So like Harry Cole, I've had a couple of contradictory messages from people on the ground in North Salop.

    Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.

    It'll be an LD fart then.
    Those are the best of farts! 🌬
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018

    @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?

    A Tory majority of 294,000
    MPs??
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    @HYUFD you were doing phone banking - can you give us any legit information rather than just relentless party spin?

    A Tory majority of 294,000
    MPs??
    SKS fans please explain
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.
  • This will stop the spread....

    This fight broke out on a train in York over some passengers that were not wearing masks 😷
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1471552385373949958?s=20
  • BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.

    Barbra.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    Spike with added Thiotimoline ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited December 2021

    On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?

    I have no idea if he was personally liked

    But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.

    But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.

    Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1471560190805872642

    Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.
  • maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1471560190805872642

    Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.

    "model" is being very generous.
  • Tories out at 2.6
  • On monday Drakeford warned new restrictions could come in force in the coming days and according to reports the schools have responded to this warning
  • Tories out at 2.6

    Bye bye Boris.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?

    I have no idea if he was personally liked

    But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.

    But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.

    Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
    The defence "don't you know who I am?" can misfire when everyone does, indeed, know who you are.
  • maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1471560190805872642

    Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.

    "model" is being very generous.
    A model of human behaviour that does not include behaviour?

    It's an idea.

    I suppose.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    Tories out at 2.6

    surely its all guesswork at the moment
  • rcs1000 said:

    On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?

    I have no idea if he was personally liked

    But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.

    But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.

    Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules
    on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
    That's not just true for O Patz.

    Question is, who else in government fits that bill?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    Tories out at 2.6

    Bye bye Boris.
    don't get my hopes up
  • Isn't Harry Cole influencing the election
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    rcs1000 said:

    On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?

    I have no idea if he was personally liked

    But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.

    But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.

    Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
    The causes of the by-election won’t help the Tories - there are a lot of hard working low paid people in a rural area like Shropshire who won’t appreciate their MP having been on the take - but I doubt the LibDems would have come close (assuming they do) on the back of that alone. It’s the juxtaposition of Paterson and the subsequent gaffes and worse by Bozo that have created the opportunity - and that still relies on the LibDems cutting through as the challenger and that Labour hasn’t saved it for the Tories.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1471560190805872642

    Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.

    "model" is being very generous.
    A model of human behaviour that does not include behaviour?

    It's an idea.

    I suppose.

    This was a straight line on a log scale, so yeah, it didn't take account of much.
  • BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.

    He could be PM in the next few weeks and opponents are beginning to fret
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    edited December 2021
    On today's topics, while I'd like to be authoritative I would just like to say:
    - I haven't got a clue who will win the NS by-election (not Labour, though)
    - I haven't got a clue whether Omicron will cause unsustainable pressure on the NHS, or lead to thousands of extra deaths.
    I'm not convinced that anybody else knows for sure, either, in both cases.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
    Scopes Monkey Trial.

    He was the leader prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
    That's right - and was successful in both roles. Though wasn't around very long to enjoy it, just a few days.

    BTW, when Bryan first hit the national stage, he was known as "The Boy Orator of the River Platte" (he was just 36 when first nominated for President in 1896). Meaning NOT the river washing the beaches of Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but instead the North American tributary that waters (sort of) the Great State of Nebraska.

    Critics said WJB strongly resembled the Platte (of the North) in being quite shallow but VERY wide at the mouth.

    Bryan eventually forsook Omaha for somewhat sunnier (and very much warmer) south Florida. Where he was prominent in beach (and swamp) front property speculation. AND invented the Palm Beach suit.

    Like TSE, WBJ was a snappy dresser. Also HST and (in his own way) WSC.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
    Scopes Monkey Trial.

    He was the leader prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
    That's right - and was successful in both roles. Though wasn't around very long to enjoy it, just a few days.

    BTW, when Bryan first hit the national stage, he was known as "The Boy Orator of the River Platte" (he was just 36 when first nominated for President in 1896). Meaning NOT the river washing the beaches of Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but instead the North American tributary that waters (sort of) the Great State of Nebraska.

    Critics said WJB strongly resembled the Platte (of the North) in being quite shallow but VERY wide at the mouth.

    Bryan eventually forsook Omaha for somewhat sunnier (and very much warmer) south Florida. Where he was prominent in beach (and swamp) front property speculation. AND invented the Palm Beach suit.

    Like TSE, WBJ was a snappy dresser. Also HST and (in his own way) WSC.
    And why did I post this 🦁
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    This will stop the spread....

    This fight broke out on a train in York over some passengers that were not wearing masks 😷
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1471552385373949958?s=20

    How do you know that was what it was about.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On question I have is this- what is the feeling today toward Owen Paterson ex-MP, who represented North Shropshire in the House for nearly a quarter century?

    Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?

    I have no idea if he was personally liked

    But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.

    But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.

    Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
    Yeah, all true.

    What I want to know, what was he like - or at least perceived to be like - by his constituents? Many of whom must have gotten to know him at least a little, and a little more by local reputation?

    SO are there voters out there who will (or strongly may) vote - or NOT vote - today, one way or another, largely because of OP and his local impact? Instead, that is, of reacting mainly to BJ and the national picture?
  • dixiedean said:
    Same here, and in Cardiff: last day Friday 17th. It looks like a North Wales thing to go on into next week (or not now).
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
    Scopes Monkey Trial.

    He was the leader prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
    That's right - and was successful in both roles. Though wasn't around very long to enjoy it, just a few days.

    BTW, when Bryan first hit the national stage, he was known as "The Boy Orator of the River Platte" (he was just 36 when first nominated for President in 1896). Meaning NOT the river washing the beaches of Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but instead the North American tributary that waters (sort of) the Great State of Nebraska.

    Critics said WJB strongly resembled the Platte (of the North) in being quite shallow but VERY wide at the mouth.

    Bryan eventually forsook Omaha for somewhat sunnier (and very much warmer) south Florida. Where he was prominent in beach (and swamp) front property speculation. AND invented the Palm Beach suit.

    Like TSE, WBJ was a snappy dresser. Also HST and (in his own way) WSC.
    And why did I post this 🦁
    You asking me? Or you?

    If the former, because I'm diligently dodging work. What's your excuse?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    This will stop the spread....

    This fight broke out on a train in York over some passengers that were not wearing masks 😷
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1471552385373949958?s=20

    The mindset of 'have a go mask heroes' is really quite hard to fathom.

    Turning face to face to have a discussion with someone is more likely to cause spread than not wearing a mask.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021

    BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.

    He could be PM in the next few weeks and opponents are beginning to fret
    LOL. The arch enabler of the Boris era?

    Rishi’s crimes against the British People and British Tax payer are MEGA!

    Who signed off the cheques? Whose department done the due diligence?

    media will scrutinise his central role in the Boris Government - I am convinced his bid does not survive that at this time - it’s not just the Tax sums fighting covid making him the biggest tax taker since paying off WW2 debt, it’s the colossally waste of money, it’s the lack of scrutiny as he signed off a lot of these cheques. His party will know what’s going to emerge before next election that is his fault, dragging them all down if he is leader. If the opposition can’t take Rishi apart after this record they shouldn’t even be in politics.

    Whose job was due diligence before signing the cheques?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption

    Thirty Billion. And corrupt contracts.

    Pick another of the runners big G - this favourite is too short for the handicap.

    I make the favourites

    Rishi, then Truss, then Harper, then Saj and Hunt.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    maaarsh said:

    This will stop the spread....

    This fight broke out on a train in York over some passengers that were not wearing masks 😷
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1471552385373949958?s=20

    The mindset of 'have a go mask heroes' is really quite hard to fathom.

    Turning face to face to have a discussion with someone is more likely to cause spread than not wearing a mask.
    Life’s too short. Chap at the petrol station tonight not wearing a mask. Makes me more annoyed than I like, but I’m a live and let live person. I think it’s because I hate masks so much, but still follow the rules, both government and my employer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah

    What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...

    Check your WhatsApp messages to know why.
    "TSE has libelled Lord Lawson again. Best get rid of the whole thread to avoid another letter from Carter Ruck".

    Ahhhh... all makes sense.
    Is not THIS statement itself potentially libellous?

    Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
    I'd be the new William Jennings Bryan.
    Not following you re: WJB?
    Scopes Monkey Trial.

    He was the leader prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
    That's right - and was successful in both roles. Though wasn't around very long to enjoy it, just a few days.

    BTW, when Bryan first hit the national stage, he was known as "The Boy Orator of the River Platte" (he was just 36 when first nominated for President in 1896). Meaning NOT the river washing the beaches of Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but instead the North American tributary that waters (sort of) the Great State of Nebraska.

    Critics said WJB strongly resembled the Platte (of the North) in being quite shallow but VERY wide at the mouth.

    Bryan eventually forsook Omaha for somewhat sunnier (and very much warmer) south Florida. Where he was prominent in beach (and swamp) front property speculation. AND invented the Palm Beach suit.

    Like TSE, WBJ was a snappy dresser. Also HST and (in his own way) WSC.
    And why did I post this 🦁
    You asking me? Or you?

    If the former, because I'm diligently dodging work. What's your excuse?
    The Lion played him in the film version 🙂
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Interesting. Based on the first 3 days of this week SA was on track for 14k hospital admissions this week (close to a pants wetting 100% week on week increase) but today's figure dragged my projection down to 9100, a sternly acceptable 25% increase. Interesting to see if tomorrow drags my projection down further.
  • Cashed out at a profit as I was backing LDs and while I'm still expecting an LD victory I'm not 100% so I'll take the profit.

    Been doing all my bets as lays so in the extremely unlikely event that Labour wins, I'll have quite a nice payday. 😂
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Alistair said:

    Interesting. Based on the first 3 days of this week SA was on track for 14k hospital admissions this week (close to a pants wetting 100% week on week increase) but today's figure dragged my projection down to 9100, a sternly acceptable 25% increase. Interesting to see if tomorrow drags my projection down further.

    Gauteng cases down 43% week on week after being 30% down yesterday. National cases barely up, positivity rate down. It's only going 1 way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Well. I've asked my man on the ground what's happening (he's a gut surgeon at Shrewsbury hospital), and said "fucked if I know".

    So now we all know.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Over 24 hours later still no PCR test result. Sigh.
  • BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.

    He could be PM in the next few weeks and opponents are beginning to fret
    LOL. The arch enabler of the Boris era?

    Rishi’s crimes against the British People and British Electorate are MEGA!

    Who signed off the cheques? Whose department done the due diligence?

    media will scrutinise his central role in the Boris Government - I am convinced his bid does not survive that at this time - it’s not just the Tax sums fighting covid making him the biggest tax taker since paying off WW2 debt, it’s the colossally waste of money, it’s the lack of scrutiny as he signed off a lot of these cheques. His party will know what’s going to emerge before next election that is his fault, dragging them all down if he is leader. If the opposition can’t take Rishi apart after this record they shouldn’t even be in politics.

    Whose job was due diligence before signing the cheques?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption

    Thirty Billion. And corrupt contracts.

    Pick another of the runners big G - this favourite is too short for the handicap.

    I make the favourites

    Rishi, then Truss, then Harper, then Saj and Hunt.
    Sounds like you experienced significant heartburn after your Rishi meal deal last year?

    You may have a point, or rather number of them.

    But doubt that Sunak works all that well as a political hate object. Instead, personally think the CoE is in prime position to replace the PM.

    Somewhat like Lloyd George versus Herbert Asquith in 1916? But with a far firmer footing within his own party than the Welsh Wizard.
  • BREAKING like tonight’s Libdem Fart. Anyone still spinning for Rishi on here? The truth is now out on Twitter.

    It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.

    Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?

    PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.

    He could be PM in the next few weeks and opponents are beginning to fret
    LOL. The arch enabler of the Boris era?

    Rishi’s crimes against the British People and British Tax payer are MEGA!

    Who signed off the cheques? Whose department done the due diligence?

    media will scrutinise his central role in the Boris Government - I am convinced his bid does not survive that at this time - it’s not just the Tax sums fighting covid making him the biggest tax taker since paying off WW2 debt, it’s the colossally waste of money, it’s the lack of scrutiny as he signed off a lot of these cheques. His party will know what’s going to emerge before next election that is his fault, dragging them all down if he is leader. If the opposition can’t take Rishi apart after this record they shouldn’t even be in politics.

    Whose job was due diligence before signing the cheques?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption

    Thirty Billion. And corrupt contracts.

    Pick another of the runners big G - this favourite is too short for the handicap.

    I make the favourites

    Rishi, then Truss, then Harper, then Saj and Hunt.
    I am content that Rishi will be backed by his mps and they are the ones who will not only decide but also when

This discussion has been closed.