Categories
The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
0
This discussion has been closed.
The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
Comments
https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/
EDIT - 6:35pm
"In case you're wondering which way the betting is going now, after a swing to the Conservatives earlier in the week the bookies are now edging back towards the Lib Dems - but it's a mixed bag depending on which bookies you choose to listen to.
Betfred says the Tories are 8/13 favourites, for example, whereas William Hill offers the same odds on the Lib Dems.
It's as tight as tight gets."
Does anyone really believe the LDs will achieve a "wapping" victory or just a "whopping" victory?
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
46m
That Tory decline beginning to look like a cliff edge now that the trend line is catching up
Tories = Delta (add any two letters of choice for the frat house version).
LDs = Omicron
I'm still wary. We've seen some disastrously inaccurate last minute markets in many recent elections.
But by heck I hope the LibDems pull it off.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1471551828651393027
Anyone have a market on the size of any majority?
@dgurdasani1
·
1h
Worrying increase in re-infections in Denmark. We urgently need these data for England, otherwise we may be vastly underestimating case numbers soon.
Con hold by a gnat's fart or LD landslide.
What happened to the last thread? It was like... vaporised...
Man United-Brighton
Southampton-Brentford
Watford-Palace
West Ham-Norwich
Everton-Leicester
https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905
Ahhhh... all makes sense.
Is that an official position these days in HMG? Or just one of the PM's funny (because it's too true) nicknames?
Fabinho, Curtis Jones and Virgil van Dijk will miss tonight’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle United after registering suspected positive tests for COVID-19.
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpool-fc-statement-covid-19-cases
Man United-Brighton
Southampton-Brentford
Watford-Palace
West Ham-Norwich
Everton-Leicester
https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1471552617373392905
Great way to help TSE fund his holiday shopping, by giving him golden opportunity to both prosecute (or whatever the word is) PB, while at same time defending PB?
Does anyone think we'll have full Christmas fixtures?
I'm due to be at Lingfield next Monday which I'm told is a "significant public event". They've obviously changed the definition of the latter.
Leicester City FC have a COVID-19 outbreak within the squad which has left the club with an insufficient number of players available to fulfil the match. The club’s first-team training ground was closed this morning to help contain the outbreak.
I'm expecting the PL to go into hibernation until the new year.
I mean it's a LFT of course. But that is either positive or not.
Pedantry over.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471554336614494216?s=20
If the Tories scrape home Sir Ed will not be impressed
Was he personally liked and/or respected by his constituents? And what impact might his defenestration have on the by-election?
Just about the only thing EFC have managed competently in recent years is I don't think we've had a single positive player.
In more than one sense...
This is point-to-point betting - no wonder they have so much money to sponsor ITV Racing.
SFAICS reasonable estimates vary from Tory easy win to LD easy win; with the common feature being that there has never been a reasoned explanation as to why in a Tory v Lab seat from day one the LDs have been assumed to be the challengers from nowhere in the polls.
I say, without confidence, that a Tory win is more likely, and dipped a toe in when they were odds against, on the basis that there are more reasons for a Tory win than any other result, in particular:
rural
massive vote
non urban
well away from trend setters
strongly leave
Labour came second but can't win but could do well
two non Tory parties to choose from
LDs have to come from nowhere.
No other result has that weight of argument behind it. I suggest there is a 60-65% chance of a Tory win.
Drakeford closing schools early
https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/councils-last-minute-u-turn-22487967&h=AT2Z_J8jTlmxbONcvb26M5JSzTkTi1IOskJSDLdimFku4ruyI1d0QgnVVj1CAqUy0UDrcxccQAx_KBtpayvqNZEDJB9h_xm7-UZdN7y5xGp4GhfK-wkCvy6TYKMWg90iuM1cDFAuTxzStNM60XoF
He was the lead prosecutor in the case and ended up being called by the defence as a witness for the defence.
I had many of my best works of witticism in that thread. Probably all of them in fact.
On this form, goodness help us if Liverpool lose! As I foretold last Sunday.
One of the councils is led by the Tories.
It’s all over Twitter Rishi has filmed his Simpson’s debut as a waiter who saves the world economy, and on this trip he also recorded duet with Barbara Streisand for the seasonal circuit breaker album “Whatever It Takes”.
Ignore that, let’s take it as fact he was working hard for UK, to go with the fact he comes back into a backbench revolt against how he has introduced lock down by stealth, pulling rug from under decent hard working business, what are you suggesting he can now do about that, how can he target money to help those ruined in this sneaky lockdown by stealth?
PS this afternoon I said Rishi has resigned from the government, to join the Beach Boys. In case anyone didn’t realise, I was actually joking.
Ours break up tomorrow.
This fight broke out on a train in York over some passengers that were not wearing masks 😷
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1471552385373949958?s=20
But he did behave - at best - particularly stupidly. The man committed an offence: he actively lobbied for a firm he was being paid by to win government contracts.
But that wasn't - on its own - a hanging offence.
Failing to admit that he'd made any kind of error of judgement, on the other hand, was completely inexplicable. Did he really think that the rules on paid lobbying didn't apply to him?
Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.
It's an idea.
I suppose.
Question is, who else in government fits that bill?
- I haven't got a clue who will win the NS by-election (not Labour, though)
- I haven't got a clue whether Omicron will cause unsustainable pressure on the NHS, or lead to thousands of extra deaths.
I'm not convinced that anybody else knows for sure, either, in both cases.
BTW, when Bryan first hit the national stage, he was known as "The Boy Orator of the River Platte" (he was just 36 when first nominated for President in 1896). Meaning NOT the river washing the beaches of Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but instead the North American tributary that waters (sort of) the Great State of Nebraska.
Critics said WJB strongly resembled the Platte (of the North) in being quite shallow but VERY wide at the mouth.
Bryan eventually forsook Omaha for somewhat sunnier (and very much warmer) south Florida. Where he was prominent in beach (and swamp) front property speculation. AND invented the Palm Beach suit.
Like TSE, WBJ was a snappy dresser. Also HST and (in his own way) WSC.
What I want to know, what was he like - or at least perceived to be like - by his constituents? Many of whom must have gotten to know him at least a little, and a little more by local reputation?
SO are there voters out there who will (or strongly may) vote - or NOT vote - today, one way or another, largely because of OP and his local impact? Instead, that is, of reacting mainly to BJ and the national picture?
If the former, because I'm diligently dodging work. What's your excuse?
Turning face to face to have a discussion with someone is more likely to cause spread than not wearing a mask.
Rishi’s crimes against the British People and British Tax payer are MEGA!
Who signed off the cheques? Whose department done the due diligence?
media will scrutinise his central role in the Boris Government - I am convinced his bid does not survive that at this time - it’s not just the Tax sums fighting covid making him the biggest tax taker since paying off WW2 debt, it’s the colossally waste of money, it’s the lack of scrutiny as he signed off a lot of these cheques. His party will know what’s going to emerge before next election that is his fault, dragging them all down if he is leader. If the opposition can’t take Rishi apart after this record they shouldn’t even be in politics.
Whose job was due diligence before signing the cheques?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9738735/Fraud-blunders-Covid-support-schemes-cost-taxpayers-30bn-MPs-warn.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption
Thirty Billion. And corrupt contracts.
Pick another of the runners big G - this favourite is too short for the handicap.
I make the favourites
Rishi, then Truss, then Harper, then Saj and Hunt.
Been doing all my bets as lays so in the extremely unlikely event that Labour wins, I'll have quite a nice payday. 😂
So now we all know.
You may have a point, or rather number of them.
But doubt that Sunak works all that well as a political hate object. Instead, personally think the CoE is in prime position to replace the PM.
Somewhat like Lloyd George versus Herbert Asquith in 1916? But with a far firmer footing within his own party than the Welsh Wizard.