"1:46am Wow. I have been surprised at a lot of the Lib Dem's confidence but not only are they claiming victory, they are claiming a comfortable victory.
**NEW** Lib Dems say they *will* win North Shropshire by-election.
Lib Dem spokesperson: "We're not just going to win, we're going to win comfortably. This is an amazing night for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for Boris Johnson."
I’m off to bed. I still think the Tories have it. That Green candidate is probably clueless, if not he wouldn’t be standing for the Greens in North Shrops.
That is so funny. The one in the green noddy hat and the wellingtons. In the news vacuum was our expert.
Congratulations to the LDs on another byelection victory. Their party runs on the sugar hits of byelection gains to get the oxygen of publicity and to motivate activists.
They were also - it should be noted - lucky that Johnson's government was rocked by scandal in the middle of the byelection campaign.
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
It's the 75th safest seat, rural, no remainers, very white, old. It's a very very bad result.
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
It's the 75th safest seat, rural, no remainers, very white, old. It's a very very bad result.
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
It's the 75th safest seat, rural, no remainers, very white, old. It's a very very bad result.
1:49am If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
I'm not sure a defeat for the Blues after the last couple of weeks comes as a big shock, to be honest!
It's the 75th safest seat, rural, no remainers, very white, old. It's a very very bad result.
Bad, yes, but not shocking (as in unexpected).
Even with all the bad news around it was regarded as holdable by both the Tories and Lib Dems. Anyone saying otherwise is aftertiming.
Congratulations to the LDs on another byelection victory. Their party runs on the sugar hits of byelection gains to get the oxygen of publicity and to motivate activists.
They were also - it should be noted - lucky that Johnson's government was rocked by scandal in the middle of the byelection campaign.
Congratulations to the LDs on another byelection victory. Their party runs on the sugar hits of byelection gains to get the oxygen of publicity and to motivate activists.
They were also - it should be noted - lucky that Johnson's government was rocked by scandal in the middle of the byelection campaign.
Your prediction lasted 121 minutes?
I was on at 3-1 19 Nov. It was never in doubt 🙂
And it looks to be your first political bet win. Welcome to the club.
Congratulations to the LDs on another byelection victory. Their party runs on the sugar hits of byelection gains to get the oxygen of publicity and to motivate activists.
They were also - it should be noted - lucky that Johnson's government was rocked by scandal in the middle of the byelection campaign.
Your prediction lasted 121 minutes?
I was on at 3-1 19 Nov. It was never in doubt 🙂
And it looks to be your first political bet win. Welcome to the club.
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees! Yeah yeah it’s lovely I like this
If the Lib Dems can win enough seats to viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, then the whole 'Labour need SNP' attack line is going to be way, way less potent.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
PBers might be able to wangle a press pass?
At a by-election it’s not so hard - you make friends with one of the friendless fringe candidates and get appointed as one of their quota of counting agents. All the candidates have the same allocation.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
PBers might be able to wangle a press pass?
Very doable. Your average returning officer has little clue about online media but PB's readership, compared with (say) the Shropshire Star, should make a fairly compelling case.
Press aren’t actually allowed onto the counting floor, Tho.
Comments
Ld 1.22/1.23
LD 1.22 / 1.25
Con 4.1 / 10
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
That’s a nice swing, clear tactical voting
And onwards to 2024 for the Tories to be out
Wow. I have been surprised at a lot of the Lib Dem's confidence but not only are they claiming victory, they are claiming a comfortable victory.
**NEW** Lib Dems say they *will* win North Shropshire by-election.
Lib Dem spokesperson: "We're not just going to win, we're going to win comfortably. This is an amazing night for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for Boris Johnson."
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) December 17, 2021"
https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/
The one in the green noddy hat and the wellingtons. In the news vacuum was our expert.
Don't have a clue tonight. So to bed!!!
They were also - it should be noted - lucky that Johnson's government was rocked by scandal in the middle of the byelection campaign.
1:49am
If the Lib Dems are able to back up their predictions, then it is one of the biggest electoral shocks of modern politics.
North Shropshire has been blue in all of its guises and apart from the 1997 General Election, where the Lib Dems split Labour's vote, the vote for the Conservatives has been strong.
Christine Jardine is back and she says that Helen Morgan is going to be a 'fantastic MP'.
She says that people across the UK are 'fed up' of Tory politics.
Against him.
Anyone saying otherwise is aftertiming.
I was on at 3-1 19 Nov. It was never in doubt 🙂
General election 2019: North Shropshire[12]
Turnout 56,513 67.9 -1.1
So 46.3% turnout would be 36,288 votes.
Lib Dems 16,000 ; Tories 14,000 ; Labour 5,000 ?
They've got incumbency but it's massively odds on to go back to the Tories at the next GE.
Probably not I think.
That’s what screwed them in 2010-15.
Is it still a party of empty promises and unreconciled contradictions? A vessel onto which members and voters project their political fantasies?
Possibility of recounting, if not to establish winner, then by candidate(s) trying to save their deposit(s).
Thank you very welcome
Con 20/25
I know Gov'ts do lose by-elections, but just a disaster for Boris. It's a referendum on Boris and he's failed it.
We're not looking at simple mid-term swings, but at 1992-97 swings. Christchurch was 35.4%, Newbury 28.4% in that era.
Brecon and Radnor in 2019 was 12%. Eastbourne in 1990 was 20.0%.
It's not irretrievable for the Tories but they need to be pretty radical in their response. It's not "keep calm and carry on" here.
New Thread and another New Thread