Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".
Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
1. This is a by-election not a GE 2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019 3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
What does 3. mean Lab we're at nearly 32% less than 5 years ago and the LDs close to lost deposit territory
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".
Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
The fact that they got more money than all the other parties combined is neither here nor there. (almost twice as much as all the other parties combined)
They nearly got as many votes as all the other parties combined in England, so that doesn't seem unreasonable.
Quit being shit and unpopular and people will start to vote for you and donate to you.
Ah ha, straight into my trap! I'm talking about registered donations. In other words, thousands of pounds at a pop. That's not money coming from ordinary people.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
The result matters not a jot. Boris has a huge majority, and even a loss is not going to presage his resignation in the New Year.
"vapid incomer" "moved to the constituency about 8 years ago"
Stupid to trade this market unless you’ve got very good sources inside the hall, imo
You're right, I should have stuck with my locked in profit. People inside the hall are going to know far better what's going on. Stupid me, lesson learnt.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.
Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardly,
If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.
A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.
My guess is that could well be Truss.
I don't often agree with you (Drakeford's travails notwithstanding), but yes, you are bob-on.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Admissions are not looking good.
So far pretty flat on my Manor. Saving it for Christmas 🙄
As I said during the campaign, an intensive campaign when voters get a lot of contact - canvasses, phone calls, meeting candidates when out shopping etc - and particularly in a seat where voters aren’t used to much party contact - can be cathartic, allowing very unhappy Tories to have a good rant at their party; the risk for LibDems is that by polling day some of them feel they’ve has their protest and already ‘sent their message’.
Both parties will have been out re-visiting their pledges today, and the campaigns will have got a clear steer from how enthusiastic or otherwise they have been.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Admissions are not looking good.
No, although some of this appears to be the data quirk whereby someone who catches Covid while in hospital for other reasons counts as an admission.
New Year Moderna will start testing for Omicron specific version.....BUT....another 2-3 months of trials and even if it goes well, Q2 before any chance of approval. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfXUrJquipk
Its not going to be until end of Q2 / start of Q3 before they really ramp up production of this.
Omicron will have gone on its summer holidays by then.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
The result matters not a jot. Boris has a huge majority, and even a loss is not going to presage his resignation in the New Year.
"vapid incomer" "moved to the constituency about 8 years ago"
Useful predictor I think. Seats where living somewhere for 8 years makes you a “vapid incomer” tend to vote Tory.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Admissions are not looking good.
Those are admissions with covid right? Not necessarily because of?
New Year Moderna will start testing for Omicron specific version.....BUT....another 2-3 months of trials and even if it goes well, Q2 before any chance of approval. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfXUrJquipk
Its not going to be until end of Q2 / start of Q3 before they really ramp up production of this.
Omicron will have gone on its summer holidays by then.
By which point we’ll be well past Omicron and on to the next variant.
Hopefully soon we’ll get a vaccine with efficacy against multiple potential variants.
Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg · 1h PSA: England Flag of England has only ~4-5 days left before measuring R or growth rates or doubling time based on case data becomes meaningless as lab capacity gets maxed out.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
The LD Hexham campaign was rather fun - lots of shareable graphics of little Lego scenes constructed to make whatever local interest point they were focusing on.
Stupid to trade this market unless you’ve got very good sources inside the hall, imo
You’d hope that those sources are moving the market. But it’s too early for that, so far it is just gossip and anecdote
Yes. The Libby Wiener(sp) quote that HYUFD put reliance on was probably before any boxes were opened. Although the Tories and LDs will have some feel (and it will just be a feeling unless there is going to be a landslide) for the result the Lab performance at that point in time would have been completely unknown even by Labour.
Re flip flopping. There were reports that the constituency was very patchy earlier. Some villages staying Tory, others switching en masse. Similar with the Labour vote. It may, therefore, be a case of which boxes are opened when?
It remains a distinct possibility that the people pumping money into the market don’t have much better sources than you or I.
Irrational prices are a feature of political betting, unlike most other sports betting markets.
But all three parties have declared same thing, Tory win, Turnout and Labour vote higher than expected. Do counts really turn around from that. Bex and Sid didn’t declare for hours past midnight, but everyone new the result by 2315 and the ball parks each party had polled. It must extrapolation. How boxes from areas are breaking you can call accurately with just a little counted.
I don’t think it would have been a hold held last Friday, but National media coverage since Sunday has been to rally to the flag and give Boris jab boost, partygate just did not come back.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
Dude, I can well believe you'd come up with a reason to vote for the Reform Party of the United States of America ahead of the LibDems. Even in North Shropshire.
Somebody in the know put some proper money on I guess.
It's not a very liquid market. Someone with plenty of money who either has a finger on the pulse or is comfortable losing a moderate stack. Could very easily be the latter.
Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.
Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardly,
If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.
A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.
My guess is that could well be Truss.
I don't often agree with you (Drakeford's travails notwithstanding), but yes, you are bob-on.
And I thought we were besties ... even though you do hobnob with Welsh Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan rather more than I would care to.
Drakeford continues to surprise. Against very strong competition, the closure of the nightclubs on 27th Dec is one of the most nonsensical decisions of the pandemic yet.
As I am Puritan, of course I believe that the nightclubs should be closed immediately.
Somebody in the know put some proper money on I guess.
It's not a very liquid market. Someone with plenty of money who either has a finger on the pulse or is comfortable losing a moderate stack. Could very easily be the latter.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
Dude, I can well believe you'd come up with a reason to vote for the Reform Party of the United States of America ahead of the LibDems. Even in North Shropshire.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
Woohoo!! LD gain from Con in Hexham East. Cons lose majority on Northumberland CC.
Con lose Hexham. More letters into 22?
Maybe, but can I just say for the record that any MP in any party who tried to depose their leader due to a council by-election should be recalled for the good of the nation.
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
The result matters not a jot. Boris has a huge majority, and even a loss is not going to presage his resignation in the New Year.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I walked past Darkeford a few weeks ago in the street. Never seen him before here in his constituency. It was a Sunday afternoon and he was wearing shorts, if I hadn't recognised him I would have mistaken him for a rather doddery pensioner.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
As one of the 'older' cohort, 67, today I tested positive on two LFT, awaiting PCR result. Wait to see how AZ/AZ/Moderna manages severity. Not perfect at protecting against infection!
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Labour candidate is personable, and born & bred in the constituency.
The Tory candidate lives elsewhere.
The LibDem candidate is a vapid incomer, who made her money elsewhere and went to live in the constituency about 8 years ago.
I can easily see why someone might want to vote Labour rather than LibDem.
Dude, I can well believe you'd come up with a reason to vote for the Reform Party of the United States of America ahead of the LibDems. Even in North Shropshire.
I stand by this, and think the sudden swings in the market back me up!
Don’t have to open boxes though? Those brilliant exit polls that predict general elections, is before boxes open, though last time they got sample group to repeat on slips what the just done, but you don’t need to go that far for the parties to have feel how it’s gone in certain places they need? Obviously this is my first bet and experience of this, but in bex and sid that same gut feel from the party workers knew the result at 2200 didn’t it?
Labour can’t win everywhere. They either figure out how to collaborate with the LDs or they can kiss goodbye to any chance of forming the next government.
The Tories didn't win an eighty seat majority by thinking "Tories can't win in seats like Leigh, lets collaborate with the LDs to ensure they take them off Labour".
Labour were second-placed and won over 17,000 votes in this constituency only a few years ago. 17,000 votes would be enough to win most by-elections if they could have got that vote out to give the government a kicking.
1. This is a by-election not a GE 2. The psephology for Labour at the next election is quite different from that facing Boris in 2019 3. As often pointed out; LD ceiling is/was higher than Labour’s in this seat.
What does 3. mean Lab we're at nearly 32% less than 5 years ago and the LDs close to lost deposit territory
Lets hope the Labour tactical voters are brighter than you. Sorry your man's Boris i forgot.
Tory view from the North Shropshire count is that from looking at the contents of the ballot boxes that have arrived first, it looks like the protest votes have coalesced around the Lib Dems.
Tory view from the North Shropshire count is that from looking at the contents of the ballot boxes that have arrived first, it looks like the protest votes have coalesced around the Lib Dems.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
The LD Hexham campaign was rather fun - lots of shareable graphics of little Lego scenes constructed to make whatever local interest point they were focusing on.
Brilliant! Infrastructure minister in the next Lib lab coalition. 😀
Tory view from the North Shropshire count is that from looking at the contents of the ballot boxes that have arrived first, it looks like the protest votes have coalesced around the Lib Dems.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
Another day goes by and we're still talking about omicron cases but not deaths.
Death takes a while.
Lag cases by about three weeks, but at the moment it's more that the older age groups have very low Covid rates. If that's because of vaccinations, all is relatively well. If it's because the spread has been in schools, and to parents, and will go to the old when the kids kiss granny at Christmas, all bets on death rates are off.
Admissions are not looking good.
Those are admissions with covid right? Not necessarily because of?
Groan. Not that shit again.....
EDIT: I will release the mutated flying lawyers with baseball bats if this goes much further....
I stand by this, and think the sudden swings in the market back me up!
Don’t have to open boxes though? Those brilliant exit polls that predict general elections, is before boxes open, though last time they got sample group to repeat on slips what the just done, but you don’t need to go that far for the parties to have feel how it’s gone in certain places they need? Obviously this is my first bet and experience of this, but in bex and sid that same gut feel from the party workers knew the result at 2200 didn’t it?
You can't do a one-off exit poll, the method works by running it in (mostly) the same places each election and comparing the shift in vote to extrapolate the outcome. So for by-elections you didn't have the data from last time (since the national exit poll doesn't use enough polling stations to give good data for any individual seat).
In theory party activists could get a sense from the campaign, but my view is that they are generally too emotionally involved and just not good enough at judging the situation from their anecdotal experience.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
Comments
Ld 6/4
That's not money coming from ordinary people.
"moved to the constituency about 8 years ago"
Your man is going to take a he'll of a beating tonight again.
Despite your cultist support his record in actual elections is absolutely dire.
If anyone has better PB search skills than me, I’d be most grateful.
It remains a distinct possibility that the people pumping money into the market don’t have much better sources than you or I.
Irrational prices are a feature of political betting, unlike most other sports betting markets.
Both parties will have been out re-visiting their pledges today, and the campaigns will have got a clear steer from how enthusiastic or otherwise they have been.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfXUrJquipk
Its not going to be until end of Q2 / start of Q3 before they really ramp up production of this.
Omicron will have gone on its summer holidays by then.
Hopefully relatively early due to a low turnout?
Should be able to count SKS fans votes in about 10 mins!!
I've cashed out again, I just keep laying the favourite. Probably should stop doing that, but back in a bigger guaranteed profit at the moment.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
Hopefully soon we’ll get a vaccine with efficacy against multiple potential variants.
LD gain from Con in Hexham East.
Cons lose majority on Northumberland CC.
He seems unhappy that Labour is currently ahead by between 4 and 9 points, which is weird
Meaghan Kall
@kallmemeg
·
1h
PSA: England Flag of England has only ~4-5 days left before measuring R or growth rates or doubling time based on case data becomes meaningless as lab capacity gets maxed out.
Con 2.2
-BEP Source at the count-
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1471616150115082250?s=21
@MrHarryCole
· 5h
JUST IN: Senior Tories think they have lost North Shropshire.
Hopes of a strongish Labour showing splitting the anti-Tory votes have evaporated, sources say.
Libby Wiener on ITV news at the count says it looks possible Labour could have deprived the LDs of victory
Both anecdotes before any boxes opened
Pip Moss ( @Quincel )
They don't know! They can't know!
There were reports that the constituency was very patchy earlier. Some villages staying Tory, others switching en masse. Similar with the Labour vote.
It may, therefore, be a case of which boxes are opened when?
I don’t think it would have been a hold held last Friday, but National media coverage since Sunday has been to rally to the flag and give Boris jab boost, partygate just did not come back.
Mind bleach etc
@HYUFD will vote LibDem before you do.
Drakeford continues to surprise. Against very strong competition, the closure of the nightclubs on 27th Dec is one of the most nonsensical decisions of the pandemic yet.
As I am Puritan, of course I believe that the nightclubs should be closed immediately.
You'd be surprised at the level of deprivation. All in the one of the three wards.
Con 2.04
Labour might have been in contention if the by-election was called post- party-gate.
But the accepted wisdom as of the O-Patz defenestration was that the LDs were the only feasible challenger.
The fact that BJO doesn’t like it, is neither here nor there.
Nobody has a clue, do they?
Wait to see how AZ/AZ/Moderna manages severity. Not perfect at protecting against infection!
Some dark story must explain your LD-phobia.
How has it come to this?
BTW as an ABS voter I would have voted LD too.
@theousherwood
Tory view from the North Shropshire count is that from looking at the contents of the ballot boxes that have arrived first, it looks like the protest votes have coalesced around the Lib Dems.
Conservative source: “We’re in trouble.”
11:19 PM · Dec 16, 2021"
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1471620962001076226
I’m trying to go to bed. I just want a clear steer one way or t’other.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
EDIT: I will release the mutated flying lawyers with baseball bats if this goes much further....
In theory party activists could get a sense from the campaign, but my view is that they are generally too emotionally involved and just not good enough at judging the situation from their anecdotal experience.
Although obviously he is a lying ****
Lib Dems back up to 20+ seats I reckon, going to see if I can get any odds on Guildford and Winchester being Lib Dem gains.
Labour/LD C&S has got to be a decent prediction
SKS loses another deposit in 4th