Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
Quite why there has been a sharp move in the betting I do not know but as can be seen something has driven the market this afternoon.
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Based on comments I made on PB earlier.
My prediction for North Shropshire.
Con hold but Lab + LD votes > Con votes.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1468983058607099904
But - an upset is a lot more plausible than it was.
And I maintain, despite divers Tories saying otherwise, that if he loses this Johnson is toast. The only time the Tories have ever - and I mean ever - lost this seat was in a low turnout by election at the nadir/apogee* of Asquith's Town Hall Campaign against the Tariff Reform movement. They've won it even in the general elections of 1832, 1880, 1906, 1945 and 1997. It's also one of their safest current seats.
He wouldn't survive the LibDems taking this from third. If it's even close I expect to see panic.
*delete according to party allegiance.
Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years, is not in the ULS scheme. Only Causing Death by Dangerous Driving.
If you've only just started I'd like to know what it is you're drinking, please.
Still bigger picture and all that.
Returning from the depleted team Christmas lunch and talking to the shift manager at the venue, they had suffered a lot of cancellations and reductions yet there was a table of 10 next to us (all co-workers) and a couple of family tables. Encouraging, but you'd expect the place to be rammed on the 14th December and it wasn't.
Coming back tonight, Bank Station was very quiet at 5.15pm and no problem with seats on tubes.
Perusing the Evening Standard, my eye was drawn to the Anne McElvoy column:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/covid-unvaccinated-omicron-vaccine-passports-b971877.html
She claims four to five million unvaccinated adults nationally - elsewhere, the quote is two million unvaccinated in London alone. These figures are quoted without source or evidence.
I'm left pondering what seems to this observer an absurdity.
We are seeing four and five hours queues of people waiting to get the booster vaccination. These are younger people who, I presume, with the double vaccine, would have a statistically small chance of hospitalisation or death with Omicron. Getting everyone of these vaccinated for a third time makes the Government look good and would reduce the spread of the virus.
However, isn't the real challenge the wholly unvaccinated? These are by definition much more likely to contract the virus, require hospital treatment and die so where is the effort to reach these individuals? It's hard work requiring a number of agencies both Government and non-Government. It might require knocking on doors which is labour-intensive and intrusive but isn't getting one unvaccinated person to have one dose more important than getting ten doubly vaccinated people to get a booster.
The fear of God has been put into people by claims the double vaccine affords no protection against Omicron but is this correct? We are bombarded on here by plenty of "good news" tweets claiming Omicron is mild and there's nothing to worry about but that doesn't seem to be the UK Government's line.
In any case, the problem isn't the young double vaccinated but the older unvaccinated - where is the co-ordinated effort to get into those communities where vaccination take up remains poor, where is the support for local councils and voluntary groups to dive deep into these communities and start finding out what's happening? What about those who don't officially exist and are fearful of any authority?
As they're work related I have to drive afterwards though.
Put me down for a job lot, please...
New TV ad appearing on airwaves from tonight - Chris Whitty says: "Every adult in the country needs to get a Covid-19 booster vaccine."
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470819316249542661?s=20
I wonder if this might be akin to Hodge Hill in 2004 when the LDs cut a fifty six point deficit to Labour to just two on a 27% swing but failed to take the seat as the Conservative vote dropped only slightly.
Success at Chesham & Amersham and other previous by election wins have been predicated on a ruthless squeezing of the Labour vote to below deposit levels. That has to happen to overcome the huge Conservative advantage even if some of that Conservative vote abstains or votes Reform.
Paddy Power have cut the Conservatives from 7/4 on Sunday to Evens while the LDs have eased from 4/9 to 4/6.
Anyone offering odds on a recount? Could be a very long night.
“In WW1, so the story goes, some soldiers declined to wear helmets when they were available to them. The reasoning went: if a bullet out there has your name on it, it'll get you no matter what you try to do to prevent it.”
As Paul Merton once said, this line of thinking was little consolation to his grandparents’ neighbours during the Blitz: Mr and Mrs Doodlebug
London update
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1470786785257181186?s=20
Once lockdowns are imposed, they are extended
This is why we must resist full lockdown in the UK, or at least in liberty loving England, even if that resistance if probably futile. Once they start they are nearly-eternal
I'd have backed Labour a little more at the 100+ prices if you'd not been quite positive on LD chances. No time to touch it now though - far too many people with local knowledge in a better place to bet. I make GBP1200 if Labour win, and otherwise it's peanuts - all green mind.
It is a near-perfect joke, right down to the absurdity of the word “doodlebug” juxtaposed with horror and death
Money Makeover: ‘How do I pass on my £2m estate without paying inheritance tax?’
Our 90-year-old reader wants to leave his property empire, that pays out more than £100,000, to his children
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-do-pass-2m-estate-without-paying-inheritance/
Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.
And on the ground it was even faster.
The Lib Dem leader, Labour shadow chancellor, Labour shadow transport sec, Labour shadow education sec have all tested positive for Covid.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1470824536820129793
It takes time for the *booster* to work.
People will not have invincibility straight after receiving their booster, and should still be cautious.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1470795837525663749?s=20
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1470822969010184192
Tonight I will oppose both compulsory vaccines for NHS staff, and the introduction of vaccine passports. Both measures are counterproductive and will create division when we need cooperation and unity.
Shaun Moore, financial planner at Quilter, a wealth manager
The Webbs’ ages make conventional inheritance tax planning difficult. Seven years will need to pass for standard gifts to escape it, which might mean that gifting strategies fall short.
It’s best to start with maximising Mr and Mrs Webb’s “nil-rate bands” – the threshold below which no inheritance tax is paid. It is £325,000 for the 2021-22 tax year and will be frozen at that level until at least 2026. You are also able to transfer the unused nil-rate band from a deceased spouse. As both have lost a spouse previously this could provide a total exemption of £1.3m.
To be eligible, they need to avoid leaving the entire estate to the survivor on the first death. Although this would benefit from 100pc exemption, it would limit the claim on second death.
Instead, on the first death the couple could create a “discretionary will trust” of which the surviving spouse and children are beneficiaries. They would receive up to the nil-rate band plus the extra inherited nil-rate band – a total of £650,000. They could also write into their will that they want an amount equal to the nil-rate bands directly transferred to the children. This would potentially mean £650,000 could be distributed, with the rest going to the surviving spouse.
In addition to the standard nil-rate band, a similar situation applies to the “residence nil-rate band”, but this can only be claimed when a qualifying property is part of the estate and is directly inherited. The availability of the residence nil-rate band is likely to depend on how the main residence is structured within the Eversden trust. Even if the 60pc within the trust does not qualify, the remaining 40pc may.
There is also the potential that the residence nil-rate band will be lost through tapering as it is lost at a rate of £1 for every £2 above £2m. Gifts to their children could still be useful for this taper purpose. Gifts to reduce the amount left in the estate will be beneficial, even if Mr Webb or his wife die within seven years of making them.
- New cases: 23,884
- Average: 22,022 (+1,534)
- Positivity rate: 34.9% (+3.9)
- In hospital: 6,895 (+697)
- In ICU: 469 (+49)
- New deaths: 24
- Average: 24 (-1)
That positivity rate.....
This week vaccines, virus.
Last week incompetence, corruption, division, rule-breaking.
It isn't hard to see what will be uppermost in folks minds when they come to vote.
Lucky, lucky Boris yet again.
Although the technology developed did lead in just six years to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunbeam_350HP
EXCL: Were police aware of the Downing Street Christmas Party?
ITV News understands that an alarm was triggered accidentally that night inside No 10, leading security/police to respond.
So far the Met have declined to investigate.
Tonight Downing Street and the Metropolitan Police say they do not comment on security matters.
But sources inside No 10 have confirmed the story, questioning whether a police officer may have been within earshot of the alleged party.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party
I should point out the way most people wear them they might be more effective if people stood on them. It would anchor them to one spot.
I've been thinking of a simple change to make the name more endearing and a bit friendlier sounding.
How about the Natsies?
For - 441
Against - 41
41 noes.
441 yes.
Or maybe trying to blackmail the Tories?
*On topic. My libdem win is still safe as houses. I didn’t expect the libdems to take big lead so quickly actually. I expected this sort of market flip flop right up to the paper piles up on table. 🙂
The reason I know the result is a Libdem win, we are patronising the voters for not being sentient beings calling it any other way. They know it’s a special election. They know it’s between just two parties. They know if Boris loses this, the nation gets a new PM. In that regards there isn’t a Conservative candidate standing, the Conservative voters there know a vote for him is a vote for Boris, a vote for libdems is a vote for a new Conservative leader as Prime Minister of this country. And For some of you to imply the voters there don’t know what’s what, that the Labour vote holds up because they don’t know what happens if they vote libdem instead, all this is actually very rude and patronising towards voters.
"The guidelines on social mixing will not be legally enforceable, but Ms Sturgeon warned: "Although it is guidance, please do not think of it as optional."
Absolute headdesk stuff.
Its a tiny world isn't it.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470828642515271682
Lockdown
That sounds great, until you realise there is another 14-19 million more to do....
Watch all the way through.
https://twitter.com/PonchoRebound/status/1470570632157048832
variously reported as 142 and 146mph top speed.
Yes 369
NO 126
Maj 243
For - 369
Against - 126
Unless there's a lot of Labour in there, looks like the suggestion the rebels were melting was rubbish and the Boris ring around was about as persuasive as he is popular right now.