Reassuring CON voters 3 days before the Bexley by-election – politicalbetting.com

Omnium said:

kinabalu said:

Omnium said:

kinabalu said:

murali_s said:

Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.

I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!

For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.

I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.

When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.

I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.

Me too.

We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.

I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.

Nice post, that.

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.

Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.

If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.

I would say in the Cameron years a plurality of PBers were Conservative voters, so PB was pretty representative of the UK as a whole.

Now I would say as KJH points out there is about an equal split of Conservative, Labour and LD voters on PB which makes it more anti Boris than nationally. No surprise as we also have more graduates and middle class voters than nationally

kinabalu said:

Omnium said:

kinabalu said:

murali_s said:

Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.

I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!

For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.

I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.

When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.

I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.

Interesting. I'm the complete opposite, most of the interesting things I've done were before I was 17.

Omnium said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.

Heading for complete disaster if you ask me. Boris is showing how it's possible to lose an apparently invulnerabe position. If he was doing this to further some sort of difficult, good, but unpalatable policies then that wouldn't be so bad. He's not though. He's undermining the Tory position by simply being an arse. He needs to turn himself around from being a vote loser back to a vote winner.

Two years in Maggie (and even Dave) would have bitten off their arms for the kind of polling Con and Boris are seeing at the moment lol!

Northern_Al said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.

Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.

If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.

Yes, I'm struggling to find more than a handful of loyal Labour voters who post regularly on here, plus another handful who may flirt with Labour but probably won't get past first base when the showdown comes.

Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?

It would be more accurate to say that many of the current posters, however much they berate the rule of the clown, have no faith that Labour would be any better. There is more than one way to be bad, after all.

IanB2 said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.

I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.

Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.

If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.

Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem.
And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.

The other group which I suspect is massively over-represented here is Conservatives Implacably Against Boris. Important in terms of moving the debate (they know of who they speak), but probably not numerous.

But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)

As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,

"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."

Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.

I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.

Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.

A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.

ClippP said:

HYUFD said:

So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did

The trouble with that line, young HY, is that there were indeed many people who voted Conservative at the election in 2019. We all know that from the published results.

Your problem is that a lot of people are fed up with Johnson's incompetence and general antics, and this time are going to abstain from voting, or even vote for somebody else.

And with that question you have no idea who they are.

I wouldn't bother with Mr Ufd. He's always had opinions.

Farooq said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.

Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.

If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.

Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem.
And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.

The other group which I suspect is massively over-represented here is Conservatives Implacably Against Boris. Important in terms of moving the debate (they know of who they speak), but probably not numerous.

But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)

As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,

"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."

Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.

What's a Wrestlemania?

In my professional case, a lesson that's gone really really badly.

IanB2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?

No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour

How many people did you speak to?

Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass

Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?

No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did

When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.

Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.

The tidier the garden, most likely Tory.
If they tell you to feck off- undecided.

Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).

Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.

As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.

Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.

May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.

Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.

valleyboy said:

IanB2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?

No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour

How many people did you speak to?

Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass

Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?

No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did

When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.

Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.

The tidier the garden, most likely Tory.
If they tell you to feck off- undecided.

Bloody hell... don't try that assumption on Mrs P - pristine garden; politics well to the left of mine!

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Leon said:

Slackbladder said:

Don't you think he looks tired?

Fpt



Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year

I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong

I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.

I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off

That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes

But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)

I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely

Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.

I found out I was going to be a dad for the first time on my 30th birthday, which was the best birthday present I ever received (only the Lego spaceship I got when I was 10 really comes close). Our third and final child was born when I was 37. Being a dad is really the only important thing in my life.

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

"The Independent
@Independent
Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421

He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency

Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.

It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?



"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.

"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.

"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge.
In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."


https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-parade-darrell-brooks

He's just a waste of oxygen. And now he has mown down five people at a Christmas Fair??

Fire up Ol Sparky

Sounds woke as fuck.

Any indication of his BLM credentials that were suggested earlier on this thread?

Yes. Hitler supporter too. Here he is, seems nice:

https://twitter.com/elizableu/status/1462673413122707457?s=20


He posted recently about "knocking over white people"

"Darrell Brooks on Facebook talking about knocking out white people #Waukesha"

https://twitter.com/realHirsty/status/1462798993470201864?s=20

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Leon said:

Slackbladder said:

Don't you think he looks tired?

Fpt



Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year

I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong

I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.

I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off

That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes

But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)

I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely

Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.

That's a very brave and honest comment.

valleyboy said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.

I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.

Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.

A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.

I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600.
This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.

Activists remember the occasions they get it right, not the majority of times they get it wrong, and so overestimate their own importance and the accuracy of their own reflections compared to that of others.

Farooq said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).

Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.

As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.

Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.

May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.

Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.

Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise?
If so:

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP
SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time)
So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%

Sure, but I ain't got a vote. Just my massive influence among discerning PBers. If there are any!

Farooq said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).

Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.

As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.

Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.

May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.

Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.

Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise?
If so:

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP
SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time)
So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%

You can put me down for SNP though I’ve voted Lab, SSP, Green (and even LD once) in my time.

IanB2 said:

valleyboy said:

IanB2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?

No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour

How many people did you speak to?

Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass

Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?

No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did

When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.

Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.

The tidier the garden, most likely Tory.
If they tell you to feck off- undecided.

When I started out, tricks like that worked more often than not. But over time it became harder to sort the Tories from Labour. My best gambit was to take a guess and, often as not as the door was starting to close, suggest the opposite - so to a suspected Tory, “shall I put you down as Labour, then?”. If you didn’t get an indignant “certainly not!” then the look on the face was usually sufficient.

Usually such people had spent five minutes insisting that they weren’t going to tell you how they were going to vote. Whether they worked out it was a simple matter of elimination, or not, who can say?

As you say, really guess work with 50% of the buggers. Loved canvassing though. Particularly in Tory areas where the reaction, shall I say, was mixed, but at least I upset a few.

valleyboy said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.

I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.

Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.

A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.

I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600.
This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.

My first election as candidate in 1994, we were doing the tallies at verification, and the results showed we were heading for a win of about 1,000 (having started from 1,000 behind the cycle before). I balked at sharing such apparently over-optimistic data and told the team it looked like we would win by 500 - which the Tories overheard and insisted it would be closer than that. Of course when the result came in, we won by almost exactly 1,000.

On the way into the count, one of the leading Tory councillors commiserated with us and said that their figures showed the ward as a hold. So much for that

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

"The Independent
@Independent
Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421

He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency

Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.

It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?



"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.

"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.

"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge.
In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."


https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-parade-darrell-brooks

He's just a waste of oxygen. And now he has mown down five people at a Christmas Fair??

Fire up Ol Sparky

Sounds woke as fuck.

Any indication of his BLM credentials that were suggested earlier on this thread?

Yes. Hitler supporter too. Here he is, seems nice:

https://twitter.com/elizableu/status/1462673413122707457?s=20


He posted recently about "knocking over white people"

"Darrell Brooks on Facebook talking about knocking out white people #Waukesha"

https://twitter.com/realHirsty/status/1462798993470201864?s=20

I doubt he'll see any House members defending him and/or offering internships.

Northern_Al said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.

Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.

If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.

Yes, I'm struggling to find more than a handful of loyal Labour voters who post regularly on here, plus another handful who may flirt with Labour but probably won't get past first base when the showdown comes.

Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?

Yes they are. Still, what % of GE19 Con voters do we need to abstain or vote differently next time in order to replace PM Johnson with PM Starmer? It's not such a very high number. So, tracking here, say we have 20 posters who are essentially Tories but don't like these Tories - your Toppings, your Maxs, your Nabavis - quoted those 3 because they are quite different to each other, but anyway, take this base of 20, and if we get to the election and (say) just 5 of them are not doing the dirty deed again, couple of Labs, couple of LDs, a spoilt ballot, something like that, then this might be enough, I'm thinking, although 'master of the polls' @HYUFD is probably the man to confirm or not whether it's in the ballpark.

Pro_Rata said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

The one thing I guess that might do for Boris, I suppose, is that a sense of overwhelming contempt for him may develop in the public mind.

May and Brown were both thought pitiable, pathetic and useless - but not, I think, contemptible.

There's an analogy to be made between Johnson and Solskjaer.

Beloved by the supporters, nothing but good will for them but what ends them is the piss taking by their opponents.

'Ole's at the wheel.'

Ole did an honest job to the best of his ability.

So did Valtteri Bottas, same result (or lack of results).

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

"The Independent
@Independent
Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421

He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency

Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.

It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?



"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.

"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.

"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge.
In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."


https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-parade-darrell-brooks

He's just a waste of oxygen. And now he has mown down five people at a Christmas Fair??

Fire up Ol Sparky

Sounds woke as fuck.

Any indication of his BLM credentials that were suggested earlier on this thread?

Yes. Hitler supporter too. Here he is, seems nice:

https://twitter.com/elizableu/status/1462673413122707457?s=20


He posted recently about "knocking over white people"

"Darrell Brooks on Facebook talking about knocking out white people #Waukesha"

https://twitter.com/realHirsty/status/1462798993470201864?s=20

I doubt he'll see any House members defending him and/or offering internships.

The more facts come out, the worse it looks. The same Darrell Brooks was done for running over a woman just a few weeks ago. He has form for this precise crime. They let him out on $1000 bail??

This is going to play extremely badly for the Democrats. They are already making ghastly fools of themselves.

"Illinois Dem blasted for calling Wisconsin Christmas rampage ‘karma’"

"Lemanski, who also lists herself as an acting student with the famed Second City improvisational comedy group in" Chicago, also wrote that the Christmas parade rampage was “karma” in another tweet that appears to have since been deleted.

“I’m sad anytime anyone dies. I just believe in Karma and this came around quick on the citizens of Wisconsin,” Lemanski wrote, according to Fox News.

“You reap what you sow. It’s sad people died, but when you open the door to vigilante justice, everyone seems threatening,” she then added in a tweet that was still online Monday morning.""

https://nypost.com/2021/11/22/illinois-dem-calls-wisconsin-christmas-rampage-karma/


A glance at the horrific videos of the incident makes it pretty plain and almost certain he intentionally ran into these people. He was not fleeing anything. He calmly targeted his car at the parade

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Leon said:

Slackbladder said:

Don't you think he looks tired?

Fpt



Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year

I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong

I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.

I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off

That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes

But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)

I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely

Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.

I found out I was going to be a dad for the first time on my 30th birthday, which was the best birthday present I ever received (only the Lego spaceship I got when I was 10 really comes close). Our third and final child was born when I was 37. Being a dad is really the only important thing in my life.

That's quite a statement. Sure you're a VG one too. Just as well with 3!

It's got more important to me as I've got older. It gives me a lot now and I'm able to give more back to 'it'. 61 v 34 is quite interesting for father/son. I'm not old and he's not young. It's not quite a generation gap. Or rather it is, literally, but it's at the short end.

My own is 88 so there's a perfect symmetry. 88/61/34, equal 27 gap. This allows some 'hall of mirrors' musing which I will not subject you to.

eek said:

Scott_xP said:

It's not often I recommend reading the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, but for MP's voting tonight who were elected on it; "Nobody needing care should be forced to sell their home to pay for it." https://twitter.com/JimfromOldham/status/1462697873947115521/photo/1

Given everything else in the manifesto that's been binned - I don't think it's a big issue.

Well, you see, that’s the big strength of FPTP.
Parties have to adhere to their manifestos, or they’ll get held accountable… wait…

Perhaps it is (seriously) possible to construct a model of PB VI - cf last time - and use it as a betting tool?

Gallowgate said:

What fresh hell have I missed today

Peppa Pig

Gallowgate said:

What fresh hell have I missed today

Boris clowning around with his notes

Farooq said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).

Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.

As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.

Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.

May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.

Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.

Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise?
If so:

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP
SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time)
So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%

I only had HYUFD as a maybe.

I'm anything but Con.

As Labour are Alun Cairns' main challenger I'll give them the nod next time. Also voted LD, PC (never again) and Green

kinabalu said:

Perhaps it is (seriously) possible to construct a model of PB VI - cf last time - and use it as a betting tool?

You could do such a thing but it'd be +/- 10%.

No point.

However we all read the posts here for a glimmer of info. Generally what's posted is what the poster believes too.

@Farooq

My GE voting history from 1997 is: Lab > Didn't vote > Lib > Con > Con > Con > Con

So that probably makes me Con?

But I'm not affiliated and could easily vote for a different party depending on the circumstances.

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Farooq said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread:
You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

>>unassigned:
AlistairM
Andy_JS
BannedinnParis
BigRich
Burgessian
CarlottaVance
Carnyx
Cicero
Cyclefree
darkage
DecrepiterJohnL
dixiedean
eek
Endillion
Flatlander
Forlornehope
Fysics_Teacher
Gardenwalker
GIN1138
IanB2
isam
IshmaelZ
JBriskin3
JohnLilburne
JonWC
JosiasJessop
kjh
Leon
londonpubman
LostPassword
Malmesbury
MaxPB
megalomaniacs4u
Mexicanpete
mickydroy
MoonRabbit
moonshine
MrEd
murali_s
mwadams
NerysHughes
Nigel_Foremain
Nigelb
Northern_Al
NorthofStoke
Northstar
OldKingCole
Omnium
OnlyLivingBoy
Phil
ping
Pro_Rata
Pulpstar
RH1992
Richard_Nabavi
RochdalePioneers
Roger
rottenborough
Sandpit
SandyRentool
Scott_xP
Sean_F
SeaShantyIrish2
Selebian
Slackbladder
SouthamObserver
Stark_Dawning
StuartDickson
Stuartinromford
swing_voter
TheScreamingEagles
TheWhiteRabbit
TimS
tlg86
TOPPING
turbotubbs

Cicero is a former LibDem Parliamentary candidate.

I'm just mildly miffed to have been missed off.

That's the story of my life. Late alphabet initial and off the list I drop.

FWIW. Johnson loyalist?

If you're not trolling me, I want to know what you're smoking and where I can get some

BlancheLivermore said:

Near 20 year old Guardian leader on "Paki Power" for @Leon
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2002/jan/10/guardianleaders

Written just after George Bush said he was "working hard to convince the Indians and the Pakis" to talk.
https://youtu.be/YAHTdgogL9k?t=49

Re Bush, I don't know its usage in the US but the issue with the word Paki in the UK are down to its legacy usage here in the 70s and 80s, its association with the National Front, violence and intimidation, and the lack of any connection to Pakistani, simply about having darker skin but not being black.

Internationally, particularly if someone is distinguishing between India and Pakistan, I would initially assume the intent is no different to someone using Aussies.

@Farooq

1997 - too young
2001 - too drunk and stoned to remember
2005 - LD
2010 - LD (+campained for them)
2015 - disenfanchised
2017 - Still disenfranchised
2019 - Con (tactical)

tlg86 said:

I’ve never had the chance to vote for my party of choice (OMRLP), so reluctantly I vote Tory.

Yogic flyer here.

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Gallowgate said:

What fresh hell have I missed today

Peppa Pig

The contempt. The entitlement. The hubris. It's quite something.

EDIT: Him, I mean, Stocky, not you.

Still not clear. Peppa Pig, or Boris?

ydoethur said:

Farooq said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread:
You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

>>unassigned:
AlistairM
Andy_JS
BannedinnParis
BigRich
Burgessian
CarlottaVance
Carnyx
Cicero
Cyclefree
darkage
DecrepiterJohnL
dixiedean
eek
Endillion
Flatlander
Forlornehope
Fysics_Teacher
Gardenwalker
GIN1138
IanB2
isam
IshmaelZ
JBriskin3
JohnLilburne
JonWC
JosiasJessop
kjh
Leon
londonpubman
LostPassword
Malmesbury
MaxPB
megalomaniacs4u
Mexicanpete
mickydroy
MoonRabbit
moonshine
MrEd
murali_s
mwadams
NerysHughes
Nigel_Foremain
Nigelb
Northern_Al
NorthofStoke
Northstar
OldKingCole
Omnium
OnlyLivingBoy
Phil
ping
Pro_Rata
Pulpstar
RH1992
Richard_Nabavi
RochdalePioneers
Roger
rottenborough
Sandpit
SandyRentool
Scott_xP
Sean_F
SeaShantyIrish2
Selebian
Slackbladder
SouthamObserver
Stark_Dawning
StuartDickson
Stuartinromford
swing_voter
TheScreamingEagles
TheWhiteRabbit
TimS
tlg86
TOPPING
turbotubbs

Cicero is a former LibDem Parliamentary candidate.

I'm just mildly miffed to have been missed off.

It's because of the puns

JBriskin3 said:

@Farooq

1997 - too young
2001 - too drunk and stoned to remember
2005 - LD
2010 - LD (+campained for them)
2015 - disenfanchised
2017 - Still disenfranchised
2019 - Con (tactical)

Oh - and I'll almost certainly be voting Con tactical next time unless I get agoraphobic on the day.

The ‘fleeing a crime scene’ narrative didn’t last long. Where did it come from?


‘JUST IN - Darrell Brooks intentionally drove his vehicle into the Christmas parade in #Waukesha and is charged with 5 counts of intentional homicide, according to the police.’

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Leon said:

Slackbladder said:

Don't you think he looks tired?

Fpt



Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year

I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong

I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.

I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off

That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes

But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)

I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely

Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.

I found out I was going to be a dad for the first time on my 30th birthday, which was the best birthday present I ever received (only the Lego spaceship I got when I was 10 really comes close). Our third and final child was born when I was 37. Being a dad is really the only important thing in my life.

That's quite a statement. Sure you're a VG one too. Just as well with 3!

It's got more important to me as I've got older. It gives me a lot now and I'm able to give more back to 'it'. 61 v 34 is quite interesting for father/son. I'm not old and he's not young. It's not quite a generation gap. Or rather it is, literally, but it's at the short end.

My own is 88 so there's a perfect symmetry. 88/61/34, equal 27 gap. This allows some 'hall of mirrors' musing which I will not subject you to.

Becoming a parent certainly gives you a new perspective on your own parents. It dawns on you how much they must love you, for one thing.

tlg86 said:

I’ve never had the chance to vote for my party of choice (OMRLP), so reluctantly I vote Tory.

I might as well declare my interest as well. I voted OMRLP at the 2019 General Election, mainly because I know the candidate well enough to have a pint with him from time to time.

I normally vote Tory in national elections, the exceptions being LibDem at the 1997 GE and Brexit at the 2019 Euro elections. In local elections, I switch between Tory and Lib Dem, depending on local issues.

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Farooq said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.

I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread:
You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.

>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP

>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP

>>unassigned:
AlistairM
Andy_JS
BannedinnParis
BigRich
Burgessian
CarlottaVance
Carnyx
Cicero
Cyclefree
darkage
DecrepiterJohnL
dixiedean
eek
Endillion
Flatlander
Forlornehope
Fysics_Teacher
Gardenwalker
GIN1138
IanB2
isam
IshmaelZ
JBriskin3
JohnLilburne
JonWC
JosiasJessop
kjh
Leon
londonpubman
LostPassword
Malmesbury
MaxPB
megalomaniacs4u
Mexicanpete
mickydroy
MoonRabbit
moonshine
MrEd
murali_s
mwadams
NerysHughes
Nigel_Foremain
Nigelb
Northern_Al
NorthofStoke
Northstar
OldKingCole
Omnium
OnlyLivingBoy
Phil
ping
Pro_Rata
Pulpstar
RH1992
Richard_Nabavi
RochdalePioneers
Roger
rottenborough
Sandpit
SandyRentool
Scott_xP
Sean_F
SeaShantyIrish2
Selebian
Slackbladder
SouthamObserver
Stark_Dawning
StuartDickson
Stuartinromford
swing_voter
TheScreamingEagles
TheWhiteRabbit
TimS
tlg86
TOPPING
turbotubbs

Cicero is a former LibDem Parliamentary candidate.

I'm just mildly miffed to have been missed off.

It's because of the puns

It is a just punishment.

@Farooq

I wonder if you'll take all this info on, or hide for about a month!

CD13 said:

Mr Pointer,

No problem. I'm disillusioned anyway.

Moral for me is: don't jump into threads and comment on the last comment without reading the comment history.

Northern_Al said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Gallowgate said:

What fresh hell have I missed today

Peppa Pig

The contempt. The entitlement. The hubris. It's quite something.

EDIT: Him, I mean, Stocky, not you.

Still not clear. Peppa Pig, or Boris?

Peppa's a HER, Al, so it's clear who I'm talking about.

Roger said:

Just watching the news. Even as an 'end of the pier show' people aren't laughing anymore.

For people who like him it's probably quite sad

BBC R4 PM were not interested in the Johnson speech until 5.31. The edit and the narrative was quite positive too. I suspect the BBC TV edits will also be favourable, although over on ITV Bradby will go to town on Johnson I expect.