Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Coming on here day after day looking for the silver lining in Johnson's ever gloomier cloud is very laudable but do you think it's helping?
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
The R&W PM question is a very strange one: "At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?" That gives Johnson an in-built advantage as he is PM at the moment - and also leads to far fewer "Don't Knows". YouGov, which phrases the question different, has Starmer ahead of Johnson with most saying "Don't Know". Starmer now has a better net approval rating than Johnson with R&W (-5 to -8).
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I love your posts. One minute you're joining in the widescale condemnation and asking for Boris's head on a platter - Tory MPs must defenestrate him now! The next minute you're implicitly condemning the widescale condemnation and hinting that Boris is the saviour after all. Certainly keeps me on my toes.
No I am not
I am commenting on the latest poll and do you disagree with the observations
I have wanted Boris replaced for months but as long as he does not fall behind his mps are unlikely to act
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I would disagree. I think the LD and Tory representation is much bigger. I would say pretty much an even split across all 3.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
Me too.
We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.
I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
Sounds like you might be familiar with the carbon copy shuttleworths. Ah the good old days.
Always wary of a candidate canvassing, mainly as people don't like to be rude. One year a candidate canvassed a road and if his results were accurate he was going to walk it. We re-canvassed and got a very different result. He lost.
Yes, but the canvasser needs to be clever about it. Asking people what they will do this time, on its own, risks getting all sorts of nonsense data. Follow up by asking whether they voted for you last time - especially if they claim to be supporting you this time - and more often than not you get the truth. It’s far easier not to be honest about future intentions than it is to tell a straight lie about what you did in the past. Especially in a friendly conversation.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Coming on here day after day looking for the silver lining in Johnson's ever gloomier cloud is very laudable but do you think it's helping?
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.
Heading for complete disaster if you ask me. Boris is showing how it's possible to lose an apparently invulnerabe position. If he was doing this to further some sort of difficult, good, but unpalatable policies then that wouldn't be so bad. He's not though. He's undermining the Tory position by simply being an arse. He needs to turn himself around from being a vote loser back to a vote winner.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
Me too.
We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.
I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I'm struggling to find more than a handful of loyal Labour voters who post regularly on here, plus another handful who may flirt with Labour but probably won't get past first base when the showdown comes.
Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
I would say in the Cameron years a plurality of PBers were Conservative voters, so PB was pretty representative of the UK as a whole.
Now I would say as KJH points out there is about an equal split of Conservative, Labour and LD voters on PB which makes it more anti Boris than nationally. No surprise as we also have more graduates and middle class voters than nationally
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem. And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
Interesting. I'm the complete opposite, most of the interesting things I've done were before I was 17.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
I would say in the Cameron years a plurality of PBers were Conservative voters, so PB was pretty representative of the UK as a whole.
Now I would say as KJH points out there is about an equal split of Conservative, Labour and LD voters on PB which makes it more anti Boris than nationally. No surprise as we also have more graduates and middle class voters than nationally
Absolutely. It takes just a little education to be able to spot a con merchant when you see one.
When I started in politics, I would never have believed a time would come when an educated middle class audience would automatically be seen as having an anti-Tory bias.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.
Heading for complete disaster if you ask me. Boris is showing how it's possible to lose an apparently invulnerabe position. If he was doing this to further some sort of difficult, good, but unpalatable policies then that wouldn't be so bad. He's not though. He's undermining the Tory position by simply being an arse. He needs to turn himself around from being a vote loser back to a vote winner.
Two years in Maggie (and even Dave) would have bitten off their arms for the kind of polling Con and Boris are seeing at the moment lol!
- Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters. - Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program. - Deaths are falling.
The timing of booster jabs has been excellent. With cases still falling amongst the most vulnerable groups, hospitalisations should continue to trend downwards.
We have around 4 weeks until schools breakup for Christmas, after which we'll see another fall in the absolute number of cases as we saw at half term. I find it hard to see any way the hospitalisation trajectory will reverse meaningfully before then given the booster roll-out.
At some the under 14s will hit some level of herd immunity, but I won't go out on a limb and predict when.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I'm struggling to find more than a handful of loyal Labour voters who post regularly on here, plus another handful who may flirt with Labour but probably won't get past first base when the showdown comes.
Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?
It would be more accurate to say that many of the current posters, however much they berate the rule of the clown, have no faith that Labour would be any better. There is more than one way to be bad, after all.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem. And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.
The other group which I suspect is massively over-represented here is Conservatives Implacably Against Boris. Important in terms of moving the debate (they know of who they speak), but probably not numerous.
But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)
As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,
"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."
Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
The trouble with that line, young HY, is that there were indeed many people who voted Conservative at the election in 2019. We all know that from the published results.
Your problem is that a lot of people are fed up with Johnson's incompetence and general antics, and this time are going to abstain from voting, or even vote for somebody else.
And with that question you have no idea who they are.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
I would say in the Cameron years a plurality of PBers were Conservative voters, so PB was pretty representative of the UK as a whole.
Now I would say as KJH points out there is about an equal split of Conservative, Labour and LD voters on PB which makes it more anti Boris than nationally. No surprise as we also have more graduates and middle class voters than nationally
Absolutely. It takes just a little education to be able to spot a con merchant when you see one.
When I started in politics, I would never have believed a time would come when an educated middle class audience would automatically be seen as having an anti-Tory bias.
It is happening across the western world and is not just down to Boris.
In the past Conservative and centre right parties tended to win richer voters and the most educated voters while Labour and centre left parties tended to win the working class.
Now Conservative and centre right parties still tend to win the rich but graduates and the most educated voters are more likely to vote Labour or for liberal and centre left parties, while working class voters, especially white working class voters, increasingly vote Conservative or for right of centre parties
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
The trouble with that line, young HY, is that there were indeed many people who voted Conservative at the election in 2019. We all know that from the published results.
Your problem is that a lot of people are fed up with Johnson's incompetence and general antics, and this time are going to abstain from voting, or even vote for somebody else.
And with that question you have no idea who they are.
I wouldn't bother with Mr Ufd. He's always had opinions.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem. And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.
The other group which I suspect is massively over-represented here is Conservatives Implacably Against Boris. Important in terms of moving the debate (they know of who they speak), but probably not numerous.
But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)
As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,
"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."
Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I think there's probably an over representation of those likely to vote Lib Dem. And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.
The other group which I suspect is massively over-represented here is Conservatives Implacably Against Boris. Important in terms of moving the debate (they know of who they speak), but probably not numerous.
But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)
As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,
"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."
Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.
What's a Wrestlemania?
In my professional case, a lesson that's gone really really badly.
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
The tidier the garden, most likely Tory. If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
My newly 90-year old mother joined a Saga cruise yesterday, her first travel for over two years, and is supposed to en route for the canaries. I’ve been waiting for the ship to sail past, but it seems it is broken down and they are flying in an engineer from Hamburg to see if they can get it mended; meanwhile they are looking out over Southampton as consolation for not being on the way to warmer seas.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
My newly 90-year old mother joined a Saga cruise yesterday, her first travel for over two years, and is supposed to en route for the canaries. I’ve been waiting for the ship to sail past, but it seems it is broken down and they are flying in an engineer from Hamburg to see if they can get it mended; meanwhile they are looking out over Southampton as consolation for not being on the way to warmer seas.
Oh dear ☹️ I think you have just put me off Saga (and we quite like cruises!).
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
The tidier the garden, most likely Tory. If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
Bloody hell... don't try that assumption on Mrs P - pristine garden; politics well to the left of mine!
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
The tidier the garden, most likely Tory. If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
When I started out, tricks like that worked more often than not. But over time it became harder to sort the Tories from Labour. My best gambit was to take a guess and, often as not as the door was starting to close, suggest the opposite - so to a suspected Tory, “shall I put you down as Labour, then?”. If you didn’t get an indignant “certainly not!” then the look on the face was usually sufficient.
Usually such people had spent five minutes insisting that they weren’t going to tell you how they were going to vote. Whether they worked out it was a simple matter of elimination, or not, who can say?
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes
But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)
I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
I found out I was going to be a dad for the first time on my 30th birthday, which was the best birthday present I ever received (only the Lego spaceship I got when I was 10 really comes close). Our third and final child was born when I was 37. Being a dad is really the only important thing in my life.
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
My newly 90-year old mother joined a Saga cruise yesterday, her first travel for over two years, and is supposed to en route for the canaries. I’ve been waiting for the ship to sail past, but it seems it is broken down and they are flying in an engineer from Hamburg to see if they can get it mended; meanwhile they are looking out over Southampton as consolation for not being on the way to warmer seas.
Hope your mum is having fun regardless, and that they get the bugs out of the machinery.
Years ago was on a Caribbean cruise scheduled to stop in Nassau, but never did because of engine problems. Interesting, the folks at my table got wind of this, because one of us was a ships captain (on busman's holiday!) who cottoned on pretty quick that we were making less speed that we should in order to keep to the posted schedule.
EDIT - Methinks that your mother & fellow passengers will have good case for getting some kind of semi-substantial compensation? She should NOT settle for an offer of, say, a few free drinks, unless of course she's a REAL party girl!
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
The gloom news from Europe is definitely unnecessarily having an effect on people's outlook.
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
My newly 90-year old mother joined a Saga cruise yesterday, her first travel for over two years, and is supposed to en route for the canaries. I’ve been waiting for the ship to sail past, but it seems it is broken down and they are flying in an engineer from Hamburg to see if they can get it mended; meanwhile they are looking out over Southampton as consolation for not being on the way to warmer seas.
Oh dear ☹️ I think you have just put me off Saga (and we quite like cruises!).
The ship is the ‘Spirit of Discovery’. Presumably because any discovering they are doing right now is only in spirit.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes
But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)
I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600. This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.
Activists remember the occasions they get it right, not the majority of times they get it wrong, and so overestimate their own importance and the accuracy of their own reflections compared to that of others.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600. This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Sure, but I ain't got a vote. Just my massive influence among discerning PBers. If there are any!
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
I'm a nailed on Tory if that helps. (As a minor poster I doubt others have a view)
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
You can put me down for SNP though I’ve voted Lab, SSP, Green (and even LD once) in my time.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
The tidier the garden, most likely Tory. If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
Bloody hell... don't try that assumption on Mrs P - pristine garden; politics well to the left of mine!
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Sure, but I ain't got a vote. Just my massive influence among discerning PBers. If there are any!
Yeah, I'll count you. I'm not doing rigorous polling here, just throwing some straws in the wind to see which way they float.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
The tidier the garden, most likely Tory. If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
When I started out, tricks like that worked more often than not. But over time it became harder to sort the Tories from Labour. My best gambit was to take a guess and, often as not as the door was starting to close, suggest the opposite - so to a suspected Tory, “shall I put you down as Labour, then?”. If you didn’t get an indignant “certainly not!” then the look on the face was usually sufficient.
Usually such people had spent five minutes insisting that they weren’t going to tell you how they were going to vote. Whether they worked out it was a simple matter of elimination, or not, who can say?
As you say, really guess work with 50% of the buggers. Loved canvassing though. Particularly in Tory areas where the reaction, shall I say, was mixed, but at least I upset a few.
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes
But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)
I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600. This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.
Activists remember the occasions they get it right, not the majority of times they get it wrong, and so overestimate their own importance and the accuracy of their own reflections compared to that of others.
Spooky - you managed to a respond to a comment earlier in the thread than when it was made.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
I reckon he has put nearly all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab column. My guess is that NH is right of Atilla the Hun so puts anyone left of Mrs T in the Commie column.
Which, incidentally, is why good LibDem canvassing data is generally better than that of the main parties. Both Tory and Labour have a devil’s job sorting out who those opposed to them on the doorstep are going to vote for, which isn’t a problem where there is no third party challenge, but makes it very difficult when there is.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
I recall discussing possible result on the poll evening with a long standing activist who reckoned we'd won by 3.5k. We lost by 600. This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.
My first election as candidate in 1994, we were doing the tallies at verification, and the results showed we were heading for a win of about 1,000 (having started from 1,000 behind the cycle before). I balked at sharing such apparently over-optimistic data and told the team it looked like we would win by 500 - which the Tories overheard and insisted it would be closer than that. Of course when the result came in, we won by almost exactly 1,000.
On the way into the count, one of the leading Tory councillors commiserated with us and said that their figures showed the ward as a hold. So much for that
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Put me down as Lab but I will vote LibDem to kick out Stephen Hammond (almost a 100% certainty now).
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Yes, I'm struggling to find more than a handful of loyal Labour voters who post regularly on here, plus another handful who may flirt with Labour but probably won't get past first base when the showdown comes.
Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?
Yes they are. Still, what % of GE19 Con voters do we need to abstain or vote differently next time in order to replace PM Johnson with PM Starmer? It's not such a very high number. So, tracking here, say we have 20 posters who are essentially Tories but don't like these Tories - your Toppings, your Maxs, your Nabavis - quoted those 3 because they are quite different to each other, but anyway, take this base of 20, and if we get to the election and (say) just 5 of them are not doing the dirty deed again, couple of Labs, couple of LDs, a spoilt ballot, something like that, then this might be enough, I'm thinking, although 'master of the polls' @HYUFD is probably the man to confirm or not whether it's in the ballpark.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Not that it needs saying but LD here.
You could me down as LD, I guess, on the back of twenty four years as an elected representative, if you are willing to overlook that of the last five votes I have cast (six if you count the parish) I have only voted LD once?
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
I doubt he'll see any House members defending him and/or offering internships.
The more facts come out, the worse it looks. The same Darrell Brooks was done for running over a woman just a few weeks ago. He has form for this precise crime. They let him out on $1000 bail??
This is going to play extremely badly for the Democrats. They are already making ghastly fools of themselves.
"Illinois Dem blasted for calling Wisconsin Christmas rampage ‘karma’"
"Lemanski, who also lists herself as an acting student with the famed Second City improvisational comedy group in" Chicago, also wrote that the Christmas parade rampage was “karma” in another tweet that appears to have since been deleted.
“I’m sad anytime anyone dies. I just believe in Karma and this came around quick on the citizens of Wisconsin,” Lemanski wrote, according to Fox News.
“You reap what you sow. It’s sad people died, but when you open the door to vigilante justice, everyone seems threatening,” she then added in a tweet that was still online Monday morning.""
A glance at the horrific videos of the incident makes it pretty plain and almost certain he intentionally ran into these people. He was not fleeing anything. He calmly targeted his car at the parade
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
Thanks. I'm thinking of going down there on polling day to see what's going on. Usually I end up chatting to workers from all the parties which is good for getting an idea of what's going to happen.
I'm not hearing optimism in Labour about winning Bexley - in the Southern region conference, it was all about helping in a Worthing by-election which could give control of the council. Bexley is awkward to see to from most parts of the south and London members are making an effort, but not in the excpectation of winning.
More interesting is that de facto cooperation does seem to be happening - I'm hearing absolutely nothing about a Labour effort in North Shropshire, and the LibDems are really quiet in Bexley. The mood is very much against actually standing down for each other, but targeting and holding back are both accepted now.
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes
But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)
I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
I found out I was going to be a dad for the first time on my 30th birthday, which was the best birthday present I ever received (only the Lego spaceship I got when I was 10 really comes close). Our third and final child was born when I was 37. Being a dad is really the only important thing in my life.
That's quite a statement. Sure you're a VG one too. Just as well with 3!
It's got more important to me as I've got older. It gives me a lot now and I'm able to give more back to 'it'. 61 v 34 is quite interesting for father/son. I'm not old and he's not young. It's not quite a generation gap. Or rather it is, literally, but it's at the short end.
My own is 88 so there's a perfect symmetry. 88/61/34, equal 27 gap. This allows some 'hall of mirrors' musing which I will not subject you to.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
Being on record as saying "Fuck Boris" make me a Tory? Seriously?
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
Thanks. I'm thinking of going down there on polling day to see what's going on. Usually I end up chatting to workers from all the parties which is good for getting an idea of what's going to happen.
I'm not hearing optimism in Labour about winning Bexley - in the Southern region conference, it was all about helping in a Worthing by-election which could give control of the council. Bexley is awkward to see to from most parts of the south and London members are making an effort, but not in the excpectation of winning.
More interesting is that de facto cooperation does seem to be happening - I'm hearing absolutely nothing about a Labour effort in North Shropshire, and the LibDems are really quiet in Bexley. The mood is very much against actually standing down for each other, but targeting and holding back are both accepted now.
There's no good reason for a massive change in OB&S.
North Shropshire is a different case.
I think they'll both stay Tory, although I have bet against in the latter.
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
My newly 90-year old mother joined a Saga cruise yesterday, her first travel for over two years, and is supposed to en route for the canaries. I’ve been waiting for the ship to sail past, but it seems it is broken down and they are flying in an engineer from Hamburg to see if they can get it mended; meanwhile they are looking out over Southampton as consolation for not being on the way to warmer seas.
Hope your mum is having fun regardless, and that they get the bugs out of the machinery.
Years ago was on a Caribbean cruise scheduled to stop in Nassau, but never did because of engine problems. Interesting, the folks at my table got wind of this, because one of us was a ships captain (on busman's holiday!) who cottoned on pretty quick that we were making less speed that we should in order to keep to the posted schedule.
EDIT - Methinks that your mother & fellow passengers will have good case for getting some kind of semi-substantial compensation? She should NOT settle for an offer of, say, a few free drinks, unless of course she's a REAL party girl!
Avoiding doing a cruise with my parents, my dad was a naval architect and is now on various international committees as the UK delegate (no one else wants it).
One thing he checks is the regulations were used on the life-rafts, the old ones assume everyone is 12 stone max so not everyone will be able to fit.
Farooq, your list is interesting, however think it suffers from your lack of familiarity (I surmise) with what I will hazard to call Old School PB (or OSPB).
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Are you saying for me to put you in the Lab column for this exercise? If so:
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time) So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
I only had HYUFD as a maybe.
I'm anything but Con.
As Labour are Alun Cairns' main challenger I'll give them the nod next time. Also voted LD, PC (never again) and Green
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
Interesting. I'm the complete opposite, most of the interesting things I've done were before I was 17.
But what about your ledge of a spreadsheet for the EU referendum?
That was surely the work of a mature seasoned adult.
Written just after George Bush said he was "working hard to convince the Indians and the Pakis" to talk. https://youtu.be/YAHTdgogL9k?t=49
Re Bush, I don't know its usage in the US but the issue with the word Paki in the UK are down to its legacy usage here in the 70s and 80s, its association with the National Front, violence and intimidation, and the lack of any connection to Pakistani, simply about having darker skin but not being black.
Internationally, particularly if someone is distinguishing between India and Pakistan, I would initially assume the intent is no different to someone using Aussies.
1997 - too young 2001 - too drunk and stoned to remember 2005 - LD 2010 - LD (+campained for them) 2015 - disenfanchised 2017 - Still disenfranchised 2019 - Con (tactical)
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
My voting record: 1970 - 2000 solid Labour, despite being the agent of a Liberal in a council election (a personal friend). 2000 to 2015 LD. 2019 Tory - to get Brexit done.
Now, not bothered. If it's a woman, only the pretty ones.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I'll let more knowledgeable people do the maths, but here's a list of contributors to this thread: You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted: Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others: Big_G_NorthWales = Con CorrectHorseBattery = Lab Dura_Ace = Green HYUFD = Con kinabalu = Lab MikeSmithson = LDem NickPalmer = Lab Sunil_Prasannan = Con Theuniondivvie = SNP
My voting record: 1970 - 2000 solid Labour, despite being the agent of a Liberal in a council election (a personal friend). 2000 to 2015 LD. 2019 Tory - to get Brexit done.
Now, not bothered. If it's a woman, only the pretty ones.
Comments
I am commenting on the latest poll and do you disagree with the observations
I have wanted Boris replaced for months but as long as he does not fall behind his mps are unlikely to act
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.
I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge.
In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-parade-darrell-brooks
He's just a waste of oxygen. And now he has mown down five people at a Christmas Fair??
Fire up Ol Sparky
https://twitter.com/newscientist/status/1462801956804730881
Also no way any Unionists prop up Boris Johnson/the Tories in the event of a hung parliament
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1462832608266620932
Many of the current posters who berate this particular government are Tories at heart, aren't they?
Now I would say as KJH points out there is about an equal split of Conservative, Labour and LD voters on PB which makes it more anti Boris than nationally. No surprise as we also have more graduates and middle class voters than nationally
And one or two who are condemnatory of Boris, but will probably end up voting for the wastrel one more time.
When I started in politics, I would never have believed a time would come when an educated middle class audience would automatically be seen as having an anti-Tory bias.
We have around 4 weeks until schools breakup for Christmas, after which we'll see another fall in the absolute number of cases as we saw at half term. I find it hard to see any way the hospitalisation trajectory will reverse meaningfully before then given the booster roll-out.
At some the under 14s will hit some level of herd immunity, but I won't go out on a limb and predict when.
You can chalk me down as a tentative SNP for VI. I've made a quick start on some others, apologies if I've misplaced anyone.
>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP
>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP
>>unassigned:
AlistairM
Andy_JS
BannedinnParis
BigRich
Burgessian
CarlottaVance
Carnyx
Cicero
Cyclefree
darkage
DecrepiterJohnL
dixiedean
eek
Endillion
Flatlander
Forlornehope
Fysics_Teacher
Gardenwalker
GIN1138
IanB2
isam
IshmaelZ
JBriskin3
JohnLilburne
JonWC
JosiasJessop
kjh
Leon
londonpubman
LostPassword
Malmesbury
MaxPB
megalomaniacs4u
Mexicanpete
mickydroy
MoonRabbit
moonshine
MrEd
murali_s
mwadams
NerysHughes
Nigel_Foremain
Nigelb
Northern_Al
NorthofStoke
Northstar
OldKingCole
Omnium
OnlyLivingBoy
Phil
ping
Pro_Rata
Pulpstar
RH1992
Richard_Nabavi
RochdalePioneers
Roger
rottenborough
Sandpit
SandyRentool
Scott_xP
Sean_F
SeaShantyIrish2
Selebian
Slackbladder
SouthamObserver
Stark_Dawning
StuartDickson
Stuartinromford
swing_voter
TheScreamingEagles
TheWhiteRabbit
TimS
tlg86
TOPPING
turbotubbs
But of course few events move the polls (though the monthly drift, slightly hidden by weekly zigs and zags shows no real sign of ending, or reason to do so.)
As the sage of Barnard Castle put it,
"Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think."
Doesn't stop it dripping through over time, especially big people feel poorer at the end of each month.
Your problem is that a lot of people are fed up with Johnson's incompetence and general antics, and this time are going to abstain from voting, or even vote for somebody else.
And with that question you have no idea who they are.
A by-election in my old patch, I congratulated the Labour candidate on the way into the count, and told the Tories they had lost by some distance. Both of them seemed amazed that I could know.
In the past Conservative and centre right parties tended to win richer voters and the most educated voters while Labour and centre left parties tended to win the working class.
Now Conservative and centre right parties still tend to win the rich but graduates and the most educated voters are more likely to vote Labour or for liberal and centre left parties, while working class voters, especially white working class voters, increasingly vote Conservative or for right of centre parties
Our local Covid rates in N Dorset are about 1000 per 100k currently. No evidence of very high deaths or hospitalisations, but...
...several local social events have been cancelled in the last few days by common consent. Is that a local population unduly frightened, or exercising reasonable caution? I don't know.
I suspect the news from Europe is influencing sentiment, perhaps illogically.
(Meanwhile, Mrs P and I are enjoying a glorious week's weather in Cornwall with several meals-out planned - hopefully covid-free: The Pig at Harlyn, the Seafood Restaurant, and St Enedoc's Hotel.)
Any indication of his BLM credentials that were suggested earlier on this thread?
If they tell you to feck off- undecided.
Will note that Nick Palmer is former Labour MP, hence NPxMP.
As for yours truly, in US am a Democrat of long standing, as a near-perfect voter (in terms of showing up anyway), and as a quasi-operative and semi-consultant (or visa-versa); currently am an elected Democratic precinct committee officer (PCO) in the great State of WA.
Though it IS true that I voted for a declared Republican in the 2021 general election! But one endorsed by (among others) two recent Democratic governors.
May be blue boy in the USA, but in the UK color me red(dish) as a fellow traveler of the Labour Party most of the time. In other words, center-leftish with mixed establismentarian-populist-syndicalist tendencies.
Being a quick study but also a slow learner, discovered my basic political orientation at a tender age, and half-a-century later have not changed it much at all.
Usually such people had spent five minutes insisting that they weren’t going to tell you how they were going to vote. Whether they worked out it was a simple matter of elimination, or not, who can say?
Years ago was on a Caribbean cruise scheduled to stop in Nassau, but never did because of engine problems. Interesting, the folks at my table got wind of this, because one of us was a ships captain (on busman's holiday!) who cottoned on pretty quick that we were making less speed that we should in order to keep to the posted schedule.
EDIT - Methinks that your mother & fellow passengers will have good case for getting some kind of semi-substantial compensation? She should NOT settle for an offer of, say, a few free drinks, unless of course she's a REAL party girl!
https://twitter.com/elizableu/status/1462673413122707457?s=20
He posted recently about "knocking over white people"
"Darrell Brooks on Facebook talking about knocking out white people #Waukesha"
https://twitter.com/realHirsty/status/1462798993470201864?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_OFO20Xu0A&ab_channel=UncleLuciusVEVO
If so:
>>confirmed / admitted:
Farooq = SNP
SeaShantyIrish2 = Lab
>>predicted by others:
Big_G_NorthWales = Con
CorrectHorseBattery = Lab
Dura_Ace = Green
HYUFD = Con
kinabalu = Lab
MikeSmithson = LDem
NickPalmer = Lab
Sunil_Prasannan = Con
Theuniondivvie = SNP
(truncated the rest to avoid a massive post every time)
So far Lab 36%, Con 27%, SNP 18%, LDem 9%, Green 9%
This was essentially a 2 horse race, so clearly our canvassing was not up to scratch.
On the way into the count, one of the leading Tory councillors commiserated with us and said that their figures showed the ward as a hold. So much for that
I am too good looking to vote Tory of course!
This is going to play extremely badly for the Democrats. They are already making ghastly fools of themselves.
"Illinois Dem blasted for calling Wisconsin Christmas rampage ‘karma’"
"Lemanski, who also lists herself as an acting student with the famed Second City improvisational comedy group in" Chicago, also wrote that the Christmas parade rampage was “karma” in another tweet that appears to have since been deleted.
“I’m sad anytime anyone dies. I just believe in Karma and this came around quick on the citizens of Wisconsin,” Lemanski wrote, according to Fox News.
“You reap what you sow. It’s sad people died, but when you open the door to vigilante justice, everyone seems threatening,” she then added in a tweet that was still online Monday morning.""
https://nypost.com/2021/11/22/illinois-dem-calls-wisconsin-christmas-rampage-karma/
A glance at the horrific videos of the incident makes it pretty plain and almost certain he intentionally ran into these people. He was not fleeing anything. He calmly targeted his car at the parade
More interesting is that de facto cooperation does seem to be happening - I'm hearing absolutely nothing about a Labour effort in North Shropshire, and the LibDems are really quiet in Bexley. The mood is very much against actually standing down for each other, but targeting and holding back are both accepted now.
It's got more important to me as I've got older. It gives me a lot now and I'm able to give more back to 'it'. 61 v 34 is quite interesting for father/son. I'm not old and he's not young. It's not quite a generation gap. Or rather it is, literally, but it's at the short end.
My own is 88 so there's a perfect symmetry. 88/61/34, equal 27 gap. This allows some 'hall of mirrors' musing which I will not subject you to.
"Keep Calmer and Vote Starmer"?
Parties have to adhere to their manifestos, or they’ll get held accountable… wait…
North Shropshire is a different case.
I think they'll both stay Tory, although I have bet against in the latter.
23 Conservatives (inc disaffected ones)
13 Labour
12 Lib Dem
(A lot I'm not sure of though.)
One thing he checks is the regulations were used on the life-rafts, the old ones assume everyone is 12 stone max so not everyone will be able to fit.
I'm anything but Con.
As Labour are Alun Cairns' main challenger I'll give them the nod next time. Also voted LD, PC (never again) and Green
No Greens so far as I know. I guess that they're politically young and PB is politically old.
I'm just mildly miffed to have been missed off.
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2002/jan/10/guardianleaders
Written just after George Bush said he was "working hard to convince the Indians and the Pakis" to talk.
https://youtu.be/YAHTdgogL9k?t=49
No point.
However we all read the posts here for a glimmer of info. Generally what's posted is what the poster believes too.
EDIT: Him, I mean, Stocky, not you.
My GE voting history from 1997 is: Lab > Didn't vote > Lib > Con > Con > Con > Con
So that probably makes me Con?
But I'm not affiliated and could easily vote for a different party depending on the circumstances.
FWIW. Johnson loyalist?
That was surely the work of a mature seasoned adult.
Internationally, particularly if someone is distinguishing between India and Pakistan, I would initially assume the intent is no different to someone using Aussies.
1997 - too young
2001 - too drunk and stoned to remember
2005 - LD
2010 - LD (+campained for them)
2015 - disenfanchised
2017 - Still disenfranchised
2019 - Con (tactical)
Now, not bothered. If it's a woman, only the pretty ones.
Best politicians ... Neil Kinnock and Paddy.