"Is Everything OK?" with the implied answer being, "No it ruddy well isn't!" might end up being the epitaph for the Johnson Ministry, but I still doubt that this is really changing people's minds.
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
BTW, I don't think I've congratulated you on your new arrival: so congratulations; hope you get some sleep.
A good friend of ours was fifty when he and his wife had their first kid - and he's a brilliant stay-at-home dad. I was 41. Another dad at the little 'uns school is late-fifties, with a seven-year old, a teenager, and one in his twenties.
The way I see it, there is no ideal age to have a kid. If I'd had one in my teens, I was too immature. In my twenties, I still had medical problems and was starting on a career. In my thirties, I was working and enjoying myself.
Having a kid later in life means that I am much more financially secure than I was when I was younger, I'm more mature, and more stable. I don't begrudge the fact I don't go out as much as I used to, because I went out a lot when I was younger. The bad side is that the lack of sleep affects me more than it did when I was younger, and parts of my body are more worn. But all in all, I think 41 was the ideal age for me to become a father. Others may obviously differ.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 23m But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
BTW, I don't think I've congratulated you on your new arrival: so congratulations; hope you get some sleep.
A good friend of ours was fifty when he and his wife had their first kid - and he's a brilliant stay-at-home dad. I was 41. Another dad at the little 'uns school is late-fifties, with a seven-year old, a teenager, and one in his twenties.
The way I see it, there is no ideal age to have a kid. If I'd had one in my teens, I was too immature. In my twenties, I still had medical problems and was starting on a career. In my thirties, I was working and enjoying myself.
Having a kid later in life means that I am much more financially secure than I was when I was younger, I'm more mature, and more stable. I don't begrudge the fact I don't go out as much as I used to, because I went out a lot when I was younger. The bad side is that the lack of sleep affects me more than it did when I was younger, and parts of my body are more worn. But all in all, I think 41 was the ideal age for me to become a father. Others may obviously differ.
Thanks
I agree there is a big upside in not wanting to go out much now, even if I could. I spent most of my 20s and 30s out on the piss to be honest, I don’t think I’d ever want to have more than 4 drinks in a night again. Everyone’s got a cold at the moment so there not much sleep going on and a lot of crying.
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt. Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
Probably just me, but I don't think Peppa Pig does Boris any harm at all. He's the one and only politician capable of raising a smile with a weary electorate and that is a very great political asset. Has its downsides, of course, (lack of seriousness, etc) but as he made the big right calls on Covid he seems pretty bomb-proof whatever happens in the by-elections or polls. He'll storm the election. (Famous last words).
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 23m But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
UK R for 17/11 vs 10/11 by sample date is around 1.03 (5.5% wow increase), a smidge down on the 1.04 from yesterday and no strong indicators of movement in the more recent partial days. If we can keep R around here as the weather chills again, and keep the decoupling of hospitals and deaths going, we might be good. Boosters have now come together well.
Thinking about todays rise in COVID Cases, (and fall in hospitalisations) I thought I would have a look at how the increase is affecting different age groups, below are the day on day changes to the 7 day average, reputed form England, (UK wide numbers not available) Numbers are cases per 100,000 people 7 day average.
0-4: up 3.9 5-9: up 26.3 10-14: up 33.0 15-19: Flat 20-24: up 1.2 25-29: up 0.6 30-34: up 3.8 35-39: up 6.2 40-44: up 7.2 45-49: up 6.8 50-54: up 2.0 55-59: Down 1.4 60-64: Down 5.2 65-69: Down 7.6 70-74: Down 6.8 75-79: Down 3.5 80-84: Down 1.6 85-98: Down 2.9 90+ : Down 6.1
My interpretation, The engine of transition in in schools and mostly primary and midtale schools, some of the increase in kids with COVID is being transmitted to their parents, but not a lot, and its not really seeping out much being that, while the booster campaign is meaning that the older age groups are actually falling, all be it slowly.
This rather fits with MaxPBs' observation that, the increase is coming from Lateral Flow tests not PCR tests.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 23m But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.
That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt. Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
It isn't a lot of fun in winter though, even when it has been dry. Wet suit gloves probably advised. Definitely a summer activity.
Agreed that Cherwell Boathouse to the Vicky Arms or down to the Parks is the best venue. Fewer muppets that can't steer straight on that section, too.
PS Use the correct end of the boat. You store the drinks at the front - you don't stand on it...
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market....
Not one, but two pie shops, good cheese place, greengrocer, booze, and a deli. And a couple of minutes' walk from the Randolph.
In the opposite direction is Little Clarendon St, where there's a Gail's Bakery, and several cafes.
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt. Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
Indeed - or set off from the Cherwell Boathouse, where you can also eat.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt. Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
It isn't a lot of fun in winter though, even when it has been dry. Wet suit gloves probably advised. Definitely a summer activity.
Agreed that Cherwell Boathouse to the Vicky Arms or down to the Parks is the best venue. Fewer muppets that can't steer straight on that section, too.
PS Use the correct end of the boat. You store the drinks at the front - you don't stand on it...
Couldn't rtemember the pub's name, thanks! As for the time of year, I agree re winter, esp. as the less skilled can and do fall in. But AIUI TSE is going next summer.
I was told that they do things stern about bows at Fenland Technical, so the warning is also useful.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 23m But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.
That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.
The doom is being successfully mongered for many.
I agree. The irony is that certain media outlets and pressure groups that are buttering up the public for restrictions could end up indirectly giving the Tories a poll boost if as I expect no restrictions come along.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver · 23m But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.
That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.
If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.
I am, thank you.
If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good. (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)
I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
Fair enough. You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt. Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
Indeed - or set off from the Cherwell Boathouse, where you can also eat.
That's it - where the puints were rented out, thanks. Memory jogged.
The remarkable thing is that anyone places any value at all on the word of the clown any more? Even HY has sufficient shame to have given up quoting excerpts from the Tory manifesto at us, FFS.
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
My father's hair was white. He was blond in photos with us as small children but don't remember that. He was regularly mistaken for my grandfather. But I was never embarrassed by it. Just took it as normal. Children do.
He was ill by the time I left school and never got to see me graduate or indeed do anything other than win a few school and drama prizes and be a tiresome teenager. It is I who feel guilty and regretful at that. Even now so many years later I would give my right arm to have him with me again - even for 5 minutes - for him to be able to see that I turned out OK, to be able to say that I love him, to thank him.
Just treasure your time together and create happy memories for them.
Thanks, I’ll try my best
Don't worry about it @isam. My eldest son didn't become a father until he was over 40. He doesn't have any more problems, so far as I can see, than I had; he, our eldest child, was born when I was 25. What he did/does have, is more money to spend on his children, since he's a lot further on in his career.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies
But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.
The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.
So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes
But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)
I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.
Also Edinburgh and (I think) Glasgow.
Edit: the airport is at the south end, away from Lerwick, but that area is woerth exploring anyway for the remains and birds and scenery.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -8%, a two-point increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (up 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by four points in the past week, now standing at -5%. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 28% approve (up 2%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has increased marginally from 40% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (also up 1%).
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
I was canvassing with 5 others, collectively we canvassed 100-200
- Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters. - Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program. - Deaths are falling.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
Thanks. I'm thinking of going down there on polling day to see what's going on. Usually I end up chatting to workers from all the parties which is good for getting an idea of what's going to happen.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
Midsummer can be tricky if you find it difficult to sleep when the sky is light. If so you need to find somewhere with good blackout curtains. If you camp you'll get 2 hours sleep.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
Midsummer can be tricky if you find it difficult to sleep when the sky is light. If so you need to find somewhere with good blackout curtains. If you camp you'll get 2 hours sleep.
I remember the sheep starting up their baaing right outside our bedroom window ina very, very north Shetland farm at what seemed like 2 am. But familiar enough sound where I live.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
Also worth noting that some of the 'flat' bits are flat in the sense of being at least a good few 10s of metres above sea level and the flatness ends abruptly in a cliff.
We had our honeymoon there, in June/July a few years back. We've said we'd like to go back, but want to wait until the children are grown up enough not to fall off the cliffs!
Best place we've ever been for otter sightings. Most was six in one day, on Unst, including one that popped up in front of us up a steep slope from the sea, under 10m away, up-wind and was oblivious to us while having a good old roll around (dealing with an itch, I think) for 2-3 minutes.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -8%, a two-point increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (up 1%).
I haven't revised my opinion. I still disapprove. In fact I'm going the other way. If there were a box beyond 'strongly' disapprove I'd be ticking that. Just seen reports of his speech today. FFS.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
I hope and trust that he did. It’s a shame there is just the one of him.
- Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters. - Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program. - Deaths are falling.
Small addition in hospital numbers and people on ventilators are down too. The pressure on the NHS is actually falling right now and hopefully the fall will accelerate over the next few weeks as the booster shot reaches more people.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.
Also Edinburgh and (I think) Glasgow.
Edit: the airport is at the south end, away from Lerwick, but that area is woerth exploring anyway for the remains and birds and scenery.
Or take a car on the ferry from Aberdeen if you are brave...
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
A quick way to tell is were they canvassing every house in the street or a pre defined selection. I don't know as I am out of date but don't you think they might go for a full canvas rather than targeted canvas for a by election?
(Slightly weird when you focus on them as no doubt my hands would be too)
I don't see Rishi as an agressive challenger to Boris. Apart from the idiots - David Davis for example - the only really plausible aggresive challenger is Gove, and he's not got his pupeteer wife behind him now.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
It would be bad for Labour if their vote share actually goes down slightly, to state the obvious. But it could happen if they lose a few votes to minor parties and don't pick up anything from the Tories.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
A quick way to tell is were they canvassing every house in the street or a pre defined selection. I don't know as I am out of date but don't you think they might go for a full canvas rather than targeted canvas for a by election?
That normally only happens if they are either awash with help, or don’t know what they are doing.
It’s now pretty well established that the principal effect of canvassing is to increase the turnout of those canvassed. Which is a good reason to avoid canvassing people very likely to be firm supporters of your opponents.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
I hope and trust that he did. It’s a shame there is just the one of him.
Funny thing about HYUFD is that he's not even a true Tory, as (not without some logic) he believes in an English Pmt, which AFAIK has not been Party policy at any time, any more than (say) hanging & flogging, though as he points out quite a few ordinary members favour the former, and I'm sure they also favour the latter.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I love your posts. One minute you're joining in the widescale condemnation and asking for Boris's head on a platter - Tory MPs must defenestrate him now! The next minute you're implicitly condemning the widescale condemnation and hinting that Boris is the saviour after all. Certainly keeps me on my toes.
Am back at 55°N. Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
Shetland has great coastal scenery, wildlife, beaches etc. It isn't flat like most of Orkney, it is actually quite hilly.
My only real complaint was that the cafes and shops still seem to serve instant coffee.
The Northlink ferry from Aberdeen is really good; particularly with a decent cabin.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
That may be the case in marginal seats at general elections or marginal wards in local elections, as I already said it was not the case here.
We had to canvass every house and did so, as Old Bexley and Sidcup is a Conservative held seat which stayed Conservative even from 1997-2005 so obviously there is little previous canvass data from past general elections to target from as most activists will have been sent to marginals
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
Sounds like you might be familiar with the carbon copy shuttleworths. Ah the good old days.
Always wary of a candidate canvassing, mainly as people don't like to be rude. One year a candidate canvassed a road and if his results were accurate he was going to walk it. We re-canvassed and got a very different result. He lost.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Isn't that a national poll though? The damage to Johnson over the rail cancellation will impact midland and northern seats, not southern.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Coming on here day after day looking for the silver lining in Johnson's ever gloomier cloud is very laudable but do you think it's helping?
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
The R&W PM question is a very strange one: "At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?" That gives Johnson an in-built advantage as he is PM at the moment - and also leads to far fewer "Don't Knows". YouGov, which phrases the question different, has Starmer ahead of Johnson with most saying "Don't Know". Starmer now has a better net approval rating than Johnson with R&W (-5 to -8).
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I love your posts. One minute you're joining in the widescale condemnation and asking for Boris's head on a platter - Tory MPs must defenestrate him now! The next minute you're implicitly condemning the widescale condemnation and hinting that Boris is the saviour after all. Certainly keeps me on my toes.
No I am not
I am commenting on the latest poll and do you disagree with the observations
I have wanted Boris replaced for months but as long as he does not fall behind his mps are unlikely to act
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
Yes, there is absolutely no way that 60% of PB posters are voting Labour. It must be that Nerys is just noticing our posts a whole lot more.
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
Better, two thirds are, and the other third have no intention of voting.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
I would disagree. I think the LD and Tory representation is much bigger. I would say pretty much an even split across all 3.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
Guessing is a dangerous game. That is about as bad a guess as I could imagine.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.
Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.
I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!
For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.
I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
Me too.
We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.
I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.
He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
It's such a grotesque crime, and he has such a horrible record, maybe they will attempt that. Apparently he was fleeing in that car from a knife incident, and he was 2 days out of jail?
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge. In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).
The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.
The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat
Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
How many people did you speak to?
Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
So perhaps 20 people?
In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
Sounds like you might be familiar with the carbon copy shuttleworths. Ah the good old days.
Always wary of a candidate canvassing, mainly as people don't like to be rude. One year a candidate canvassed a road and if his results were accurate he was going to walk it. We re-canvassed and got a very different result. He lost.
Yes, but the canvasser needs to be clever about it. Asking people what they will do this time, on its own, risks getting all sorts of nonsense data. Follow up by asking whether they voted for you last time - especially if they claim to be supporting you this time - and more often than not you get the truth. It’s far easier not to be honest about future intentions than it is to tell a straight lie about what you did in the past. Especially in a friendly conversation.
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Coming on here day after day looking for the silver lining in Johnson's ever gloomier cloud is very laudable but do you think it's helping?
Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Con are clearly heading for another (reduced) majority government at the next general election.
Heading for complete disaster if you ask me. Boris is showing how it's possible to lose an apparently invulnerabe position. If he was doing this to further some sort of difficult, good, but unpalatable policies then that wouldn't be so bad. He's not though. He's undermining the Tory position by simply being an arse. He needs to turn himself around from being a vote loser back to a vote winner.
Comments
Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
A good friend of ours was fifty when he and his wife had their first kid - and he's a brilliant stay-at-home dad. I was 41. Another dad at the little 'uns school is late-fifties, with a seven-year old, a teenager, and one in his twenties.
The way I see it, there is no ideal age to have a kid. If I'd had one in my teens, I was too immature. In my twenties, I still had medical problems and was starting on a career. In my thirties, I was working and enjoying myself.
Having a kid later in life means that I am much more financially secure than I was when I was younger, I'm more mature, and more stable. I don't begrudge the fact I don't go out as much as I used to, because I went out a lot when I was younger. The bad side is that the lack of sleep affects me more than it did when I was younger, and parts of my body are more worn. But all in all, I think 41 was the ideal age for me to become a father. Others may obviously differ.
Oliver Johnson
@BristOliver
·
23m
But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
I agree there is a big upside in not wanting to go out much now, even if I could. I spent most of my 20s and 30s out on the piss to be honest, I don’t think I’d ever want to have more than 4 drinks in a night again. Everyone’s got a cold at the moment so there not much sleep going on and a lot of crying.
As for the kids…
@Independent
Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421
Thinking about todays rise in COVID Cases, (and fall in hospitalisations) I thought I would have a look at how the increase is affecting different age groups, below are the day on day changes to the 7 day average, reputed form England, (UK wide numbers not available) Numbers are cases per 100,000 people 7 day average.
0-4: up 3.9
5-9: up 26.3
10-14: up 33.0
15-19: Flat
20-24: up 1.2
25-29: up 0.6
30-34: up 3.8
35-39: up 6.2
40-44: up 7.2
45-49: up 6.8
50-54: up 2.0
55-59: Down 1.4
60-64: Down 5.2
65-69: Down 7.6
70-74: Down 6.8
75-79: Down 3.5
80-84: Down 1.6
85-98: Down 2.9
90+ : Down 6.1
My interpretation, The engine of transition in in schools and mostly primary and midtale schools, some of the increase in kids with COVID is being transmitted to their parents, but not a lot, and its not really seeping out much being that, while the booster campaign is meaning that the older age groups are actually falling, all be it slowly.
This rather fits with MaxPBs' observation that, the increase is coming from Lateral Flow tests not PCR tests.
That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.
The doom is being successfully mongered for many.
Agreed that Cherwell Boathouse to the Vicky Arms or down to the Parks is the best venue. Fewer muppets that can't steer straight on that section, too.
PS Use the correct end of the boat. You store the drinks at the front - you don't stand on it...
And a couple of minutes' walk from the Randolph.
In the opposite direction is Little Clarendon St, where there's a Gail's Bakery, and several cafes.
I was told that they do things stern about bows at Fenland Technical, so the warning is also useful.
"Mama, just killed a man
Put a gun against his head
Pulled my trigger, now he's dead"
What he did/does have, is more money to spend on his children, since he's a lot further on in his career.
Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
@RedfieldWilton
First tie in British voting intention this year.
Westminster Voting Intention (21 Nov):
Conservative 37% (+1)
Labour 37% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 15 Nov
Edit: the airport is at the south end, away from Lerwick, but that area is woerth exploring anyway for the remains and birds and scenery.
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by four points in the past week, now standing at -5%. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 28% approve (up 2%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has increased marginally from 40% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (also up 1%).
The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.
Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.
Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
- Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters.
- Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program.
- Deaths are falling.
Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.
So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
We had our honeymoon there, in June/July a few years back. We've said we'd like to go back, but want to wait until the children are grown up enough not to fall off the cliffs!
Best place we've ever been for otter sightings. Most was six in one day, on Unst, including one that popped up in front of us up a steep slope from the sea, under 10m away, up-wind and was oblivious to us while having a good old roll around (dealing with an itch, I think) for 2-3 minutes.
(Slightly weird when you focus on them as no doubt my hands would be too)
I don't see Rishi as an agressive challenger to Boris. Apart from the idiots - David Davis for example - the only really plausible aggresive challenger is Gove, and he's not got his pupeteer wife behind him now.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/covid-latest-news-austria-plunged-lockdown-violent-protests/
Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%
Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
Delta may or may not be stopped by even the hardest lockdown.
It’s now pretty well established that the principal effect of canvassing is to increase the turnout of those canvassed. Which is a good reason to avoid canvassing people very likely to be firm supporters of your opponents.
My only real complaint was that the cafes and shops still seem to serve instant coffee.
The Northlink ferry from Aberdeen is really good; particularly with a decent cabin.
We had to canvass every house and did so, as Old Bexley and Sidcup is a Conservative held seat which stayed Conservative even from 1997-2005 so obviously there is little previous canvass data from past general elections to target from as most activists will have been sent to marginals
Always wary of a candidate canvassing, mainly as people don't like to be rude. One year a candidate canvassed a road and if his results were accurate he was going to walk it. We re-canvassed and got a very different result. He lost.
I'm sure Pepper Piggate will shift the polls for Labour!
I am commenting on the latest poll and do you disagree with the observations
I have wanted Boris replaced for months but as long as he does not fall behind his mps are unlikely to act
If 60% of PB vote Labour at the GE it'll be a majority of about 500.
We all inevitably lead lives of mediocrity for the most part, but I've had my odd moment in the sun. I would have liked to have been better at relationships, but perhaps I avoided disasters too.
I'd trade a little bit of my soul for a rework of one relationship.
"In July 2020, police charged him with three other felonies – including reckless endangerment and being a felon in possession of a firearm. He’s also listed as a Tier 2 registered sex offender in Nevada.
"A background check from Wisconsin's Department of Justice came back with over 50 pages of charges against Brooks stretching back decades. In 1999 he received his first felony conviction for taking part in an aggravated battery – for which he received three years of probation, records show.
"He was convicted of obstructing an officer in 2005 and 2003. In 2002 he had another felony marijuana charge.
In 2010 he pleaded no contest to felony strangulation charges after allegedly attacking a woman during an argument about phone calls."
https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-parade-darrell-brooks
He's just a waste of oxygen. And now he has mown down five people at a Christmas Fair??
Fire up Ol Sparky
https://twitter.com/newscientist/status/1462801956804730881
Also no way any Unionists prop up Boris Johnson/the Tories in the event of a hung parliament
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1462832608266620932