The voting segment that is most hostile to BoJo – ABC1 Remainers – politicalbetting.com

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

Yes, it’s totally bonkers. But there’s been several documented instances of it over the years. The rule in senior government offices should be no personal devices allowed, and no exceptions. In corporate world, people get fired all the time for such breaches.

The government email servers should be configured to flag external emails to the recipients.

Congratulations @HYUFD

Cyclefree said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

I work in IT security, in significantly less important roles than governmental communications.

The issue is probably, as these things always are, with the governmental equivalent of the C-suite exempting themselves from the agreed rules, which are supposed to apply to everyone.

kinabalu said:

Cyclefree said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Thankyou everyone for the congratulations, much appreciated

No posting from honeymoon then. Lack of commitment there. You know that Jack Nicklaus played lots of golf on his? Yep - that's why he has 18 majors.

I think spending hours on PB on honeymoon would not have gone down well with the Mrs and rightly so.

We had a nice time though, went to lots of lovely villages and small towns, Castle Combe, Tetbury, Chipping Camden, Stow on the Wold, Chipping Norton and Sudeley Castle and Snowshill, Cheltenham and Worcester. We also had Bob Mortimer and Paul Whitehouse staying in the same hotel as us near Tewkesbury for a few days, no doubt filming something

- Sounds perfect. We're going in the Autumn. Doing some arboretum type things.

Do try and visit Westonbirt Arboretum. A magical place.

Yes, that's the one we are mainly going for. Hoping for clean crisp weather in which to see it.

The acers there are wonderful. I hope you get good weather.

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

moonshine said:

Contrarian aside, most will be easily persuaded that the risk of serious health impacts to letting rip in secondary schools is worse than vaccination in them.

Does anyone have any data on the risk of hospitalisation for the under 12s please? And the under 5s?

For England, over the entire epidemic, admissions

0 to 5 3,057
6 to 17 3,005
18 to 64 145,063
65 to 84 165,006
85+ 83,736

as a percentage

0 to 5 0.76%
6 to 17 0.75%
18 to 64 36.28%
65 to 84 41.27%
85+ 20.94%

and for deaths

00 04 10 0.01%
05 09 6 0.01%
10 14 13 0.01%
15 19 31 0.03%
20 24 59 0.05%
25 29 120 0.11%
30 34 214 0.19%
35 39 360 0.32%
40 44 578 0.51%
45 49 1,138 1.01%
50 54 2,019 1.79%
55 59 3,307 2.94%
60 64 3,894 3.46%
65 69 8,119 7.21%
70 74 11,079 9.84%
75 79 15,348 13.63%
80 84 20,450 18.16%
85 89 22,282 19.78%
90+ 23,604 20.96%

So 29 under-15s, and 60 under-19s in the deaths column, with 6,000 under-18s in hospital.

Get your teenagers vaccinated!

Indeed these aren’t trifling numbers. Singapore just had a teenage death from someone recently Pfizered though they’ve haven’t yet linked the two things together.

I am fully in agreement with Contrarian that we shouldn’t vaccinate kids with a potentially harmful vaccine just to protect unvaccinated adults. That would be a fucking outrage.

But that’s not really open for debate is it. If we don’t vaccinate children then with delta variant we are saying that child will definitely contact covid at some point, despite whatever appalling disruption we lay on top of their social development and education.

So the question is whether vaccination is better or worse for the kids’ health than let rip. I’m a parent. I want good data. But I also don’t want fannying about. They need to get this resolved in good time before September.

Andy_JS said:

On topic, isn't it strange that C2DE Remainers are more pro-Boris than C2DE Leavers?

It is - and the answer to why is (I sense) of profound import. We should get working on it. Has he disappointed blue collar Leavers in some way perhaps? Was our Brexit not hard enough for them? This would explain why their Remainer equivalents are relatively more supportive.

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

On topic, isn't it strange that C2DE Remainers are more pro-Boris than C2DE Leavers?

It is - and the answer to why is (I sense) of profound import. We should get working on it. Has he disappointed blue collar Leavers in some way perhaps? Was our Brexit not hard enough for them? This would explain why their Remainer equivalents are relatively more supportive.

It may be just a statistical anomaly. But interesting if confirmed by further research/polls.

3-3. Amazing. Best game of the tournament, to state the obvious.

Blimey my itv stream was so delayed - I saw the 3-3 pop up on here first

What a game

Cyclefree said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

I work in IT security, in significantly less important roles than governmental communications.

The issue is probably, as these things always are, with the governmental equivalent of the C-suite exempting themselves from the agreed rules, which are supposed to apply to everyone.

I am a little surprised that the security services don't insist on what is, frankly, pretty basic security protocol.

I did a case years ago involving insider dealing in the shares of a defence company with close ties to the government. All the bankers / traders were looked at but it was as clear as the sun in the sky that the leaks of inside information were coming from inside government. Indeed they barely bothered hiding it. It was an appalling - and doubtless very profitable - abuse of power.

This sort of poor security is incredibly dangerous.

And the government then has the nerve to suggest that we ought to trust them with our personal health and other data.

It’s astonishing that we’ve discovered today, that the SoS Heath’s office has a Chinese camera in it, the office is managed by a private management company, and the CCTV room is open to someone with a mobile phone to record it.

I’d have assumed that the ‘top floor’ offices in government departments would have Special Branch and MI5 all over them - but apparently not!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Thankyou everyone for the congratulations, much appreciated

No posting from honeymoon then. Lack of commitment there. You know that Jack Nicklaus played lots of golf on his? Yep - that's why he has 18 majors.

Perhaps Mrs FD has put her foot down; started as she means to go on.

Only joking. Every happiness!

57 years of marriage and my wife did explain how she said to the 'Good Lord' just after our wedding ceremony, for 'Him' to allow her to take back her promise to 'love and obey' and she has acted, accordingly, ever since, God bless her.

59 years and a few days; I don't think we've ever 'obeyed' each other. We've had the odd disagreement of course but always seen the others point of view

Indeed and why you are 1 year and we are 3 years from a telegram from Buckingham Palace

Does that still happen? Do telegrams still exist? It would be nice to think so.

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Thankyou everyone for the congratulations, much appreciated

No posting from honeymoon then. Lack of commitment there. You know that Jack Nicklaus played lots of golf on his? Yep - that's why he has 18 majors.

Perhaps Mrs FD has put her foot down; started as she means to go on.

Only joking. Every happiness!

57 years of marriage and my wife did explain how she said to the 'Good Lord' just after our wedding ceremony, for 'Him' to allow her to take back her promise to 'love and obey' and she has acted, accordingly, ever since, God bless her.

59 years and a few days; I don't think we've ever 'obeyed' each other. We've had the odd disagreement of course but always seen the others point of view

Indeed and why you are 1 year and we are 3 years from a telegram from Buckingham Palace

Does that still happen? Do telegrams still exist? It would be nice to think so.

My great aunt and uncle got a signed card a few years ago.

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Thankyou everyone for the congratulations, much appreciated

No posting from honeymoon then. Lack of commitment there. You know that Jack Nicklaus played lots of golf on his? Yep - that's why he has 18 majors.

Perhaps Mrs FD has put her foot down; started as she means to go on.

Only joking. Every happiness!

57 years of marriage and my wife did explain how she said to the 'Good Lord' just after our wedding ceremony, for 'Him' to allow her to take back her promise to 'love and obey' and she has acted, accordingly, ever since, God bless her.

59 years and a few days; I don't think we've ever 'obeyed' each other. We've had the odd disagreement of course but always seen the others point of view

Indeed and why you are 1 year and we are 3 years from a telegram from Buckingham Palace

Does that still happen? Do telegrams still exist? It would be nice to think so.

Apparently a 'message', whatever that is -

https://www.gov.uk/get-birthday-anniversary-message-from-queen

Dodgy dodgy Spain.....

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Turn the telly on and get a Deliveroo from your local Turkish restaurant.

NEW: Tanzania's new president releases country's first coronavirus update in more than a year, confirming at least 100 active cases, of which 70 are on ventilators.

I have a suspicion that there might be more than 100 cases....

Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

Yes, it’s totally bonkers. But there’s been several documented instances of it over the years. The rule in senior government offices should be no personal devices allowed, and no exceptions. In corporate world, people get fired all the time for such breaches.

That would require an approach to ministerial discipline based on no exceptions, break the rules and you're out. Which we now blatantly don't have. Even after this weekend's events.

Anyone who has raised children, taught, or trained puppies knows the problem. It's really tempting to be merciful to a transgressor. But there is a slice of the population who experiences mercy and sees permission to do even worse next time round.

Sorry Dave. I liked you a lot, but you didn't hold the line and this is on you.

Give them an inch ... that saying. Also what Rihanna said. All of her kindness is taken for weakness. Definitely some truth there sadly.

turbotubbs said:

TOPPING said:

TimT said:

TOPPING said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

What are your concerns about it?

I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?

I like the drive your car 10 miles comparison with COVID. In both cases, the bulk of the safety measures are in your hands and so you control most of the risks. But in both cases, you cannot control the risks from other idiots' behaviour, nor the unforeseen risks from the equipment (car/vaccine).

Yep. That is fair. You are at the mercy of bad drivers (of which you are not one, obvs) or over-effusive huggers (or snoggers, seeing as we're talking about teenagers).

Still interested to know the other 1/1,000 risks, that said.

See the table below:


Taken from terrificscience.org/lessonpdfs/Scientific_View_of_Risk.pdf

Going to have to buy the book referenced in the table now.

From US data, here is a list of equivalent risks:

3 hours in a coal mine
driving a car 300 miles
smoke 1.4 cigarettes
eat 100 charcoal-grilled steaks
live 20 years near a PVC plant
live 2 months in Denver
bicycle 10 miles
fly 1000 miles in a commercial jet
live 2 months with a smoker
live 150 years 20 miles from a nuclear reactor
drink 30 cans of soda
live 50 years 50 years 5 miles from a nuclear reactor

Source: Erik Hollnagel: Safety I and Safety II

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

I work in IT security, in significantly less important roles than governmental communications.

The issue is probably, as these things always are, with the governmental equivalent of the C-suite exempting themselves from the agreed rules, which are supposed to apply to everyone.

I am a little surprised that the security services don't insist on what is, frankly, pretty basic security protocol.

I did a case years ago involving insider dealing in the shares of a defence company with close ties to the government. All the bankers / traders were looked at but it was as clear as the sun in the sky that the leaks of inside information were coming from inside government. Indeed they barely bothered hiding it. It was an appalling - and doubtless very profitable - abuse of power.

This sort of poor security is incredibly dangerous.

And the government then has the nerve to suggest that we ought to trust them with our personal health and other data.

It’s astonishing that we’ve discovered today, that the SoS Heath’s office has a Chinese camera in it, the office is managed by a private management company, and the CCTV room is open to someone with a mobile phone to record it.

I’d have assumed that the ‘top floor’ offices in government departments would have Special Branch and MI5 all over them - but apparently not!

A few months ago I attended a virtual cross-government conference. One of the presenters was from the MoD. But it turned out they couldn't actually do their presentation live because the MoD security doesn't allow their staff to present on Teams. So they had to pre-record their presentation and we watched a video of it.

But the rest of us can do as we please.

Andy_JS said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

On topic, isn't it strange that C2DE Remainers are more pro-Boris than C2DE Leavers?

It is - and the answer to why is (I sense) of profound import. We should get working on it. Has he disappointed blue collar Leavers in some way perhaps? Was our Brexit not hard enough for them? This would explain why their Remainer equivalents are relatively more supportive.

It may be just a statistical anomaly. But interesting if confirmed by further research/polls.

Yes - and tbh I'm dubious.

FrancisUrquhart said:

NEW: Abu Dhabi says unvaccinated people will be banned from shopping centers, restaurants, universities, gyms, recreational facilities, and other places https://t.co/AfqjebILkl

Another vaccine push?

So… a week or so ago, England were fairly lame because they could only beat the Czech Republic and Croatia by 1-0 each in normal time.

One week later, Netherlands go out to the Czechs 2-0, and Croatia hold Spain 3-3 in normal time.

Those performances don’t look too bad in retrospect.

FPT
DavidL said:

» show previous quotes
We had an interesting debate on here where @malcolmg was convinced that his pension would be paid by the English state. I think eventually he accepted that in the White Paper in 2014 that even the SNP acknowledged that continuing liability would run with the Scottish state and therefore be subject to their potential default. It doesn't seem to have changed his opinion yet on independence.

The argument about a central bank is one that has plagued the debate for a decade or more now. Nationalists frequently point out that they own a share of the BoE. Putting aside the technicalities of shareholding there is some merit in this argument since the BoE is there for all of the UK, despite its name.

The flaw is the failure to appreciate that a central bank is not an asset but a function or series of functions. Its ability to carry out those functions, such as regulation or being a lender of last resort, is contingent upon the legislative and fiscal support it receives from the government of the day. If Scotland goes independent it would no longer be underwriting those functions either legislatively or fiscally so it would have no say whatsoever in how these functions are operated. If, to take an example, a housing boom in the south of England results in higher interest rates and that causes a recession in Scotland that is just tough.

So we can continue to use Sterling but accept as a consequence that we have no say whatsoever on interest rate or monetary policy. If rUK chooses to debauch its currency with even more QE we simply have to accept the subsequent devaluation and inflation. It also means all our major financial institutions have to be registered in England to get LOLR protection with seriously adverse consequences to our tax base.

@Burgessian @DavidL @Carnyx

David , I did not accept the argument. My position was that anyone who has contributed for 50 years and is on a pension will remain a liability of the rUK, going forward obviously Scotland would be responsible for any
funding. Just because the rUK has plundered the contributions does not mean it can just walk away, that would be part of the negotiations and the sharing of UK assets.
Regarding the pound , only an idiot would try to say we could not use it if we wanted to, of course their would be pluses and minuses but given it would take a long time to unravel all the joint infrastructures, move all the civil service and government jobs north , split all the assets then it would be sensible for a spell to retain the pound until all sorted and we move to a Scottish pound with our own central bank.
In any event there would be an orderly move to a Scottish currency , same as almost every country in the world has managed easily when they split from their colonial overlords.

malcolmg said:

FPT
DavidL said:

» show previous quotes
We had an interesting debate on here where @malcolmg was convinced that his pension would be paid by the English state. I think eventually he accepted that in the White Paper in 2014 that even the SNP acknowledged that continuing liability would run with the Scottish state and therefore be subject to their potential default. It doesn't seem to have changed his opinion yet on independence.

The argument about a central bank is one that has plagued the debate for a decade or more now. Nationalists frequently point out that they own a share of the BoE. Putting aside the technicalities of shareholding there is some merit in this argument since the BoE is there for all of the UK, despite its name.

The flaw is the failure to appreciate that a central bank is not an asset but a function or series of functions. Its ability to carry out those functions, such as regulation or being a lender of last resort, is contingent upon the legislative and fiscal support it receives from the government of the day. If Scotland goes independent it would no longer be underwriting those functions either legislatively or fiscally so it would have no say whatsoever in how these functions are operated. If, to take an example, a housing boom in the south of England results in higher interest rates and that causes a recession in Scotland that is just tough.

So we can continue to use Sterling but accept as a consequence that we have no say whatsoever on interest rate or monetary policy. If rUK chooses to debauch its currency with even more QE we simply have to accept the subsequent devaluation and inflation. It also means all our major financial institutions have to be registered in England to get LOLR protection with seriously adverse consequences to our tax base.

@Burgessian @DavidL @Carnyx

David , I did not accept the argument. My position was that anyone who has contributed for 50 years and is on a pension will remain a liability of the rUK, going forward obviously Scotland would be responsible for any
funding. Just because the rUK has plundered the contributions does not mean it can just walk away, that would be part of the negotiations and the sharing of UK assets.
Regarding the pound , only an idiot would try to say we could not use it if we wanted to, of course their would be pluses and minuses but given it would take a long time to unravel all the joint infrastructures, move all the civil service and government jobs north , split all the assets then it would be sensible for a spell to retain the pound until all sorted and we move to a Scottish pound with our own central bank.
In any event there would be an orderly move to a Scottish currency , same as almost every country in the world has managed easily when they split from their colonial overlords.

Well, they did with India. And every other colony.

And you keep telling us Scotland is a colony...

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

DavidL said:

turbotubbs said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

You do know that there are hundreds of variants don't you? Only a few have characteristics that make a material difference to its ability to make people ill. And it cannot change too much it loses the ability to say bind to the ACE-2 receptors.
We need to be careful of variants, but there is little prospect of a sudden emergence of a variant which completely evades the current vaccines.

Yes I do know. The variants of concern as they call them, which have basically been the SA one, Kent and now Delta, have each increased the infectivity of the virus and its propensity to spread. The evolutionary advantage of this is obvious and there is a recognised tendency for viruses to develop in this way, also becoming more benign because this keeps their host alive for longer allowing more opportunities for transmission. Going by the past pattern it seems inevitable that an even more infectious variant than delta will be along very shortly.

The evidence to date is that none of these variants defeat the vaccine but in countries like ours where the majority of potential hosts are vaccinated the ability to do so would be a huge evolutionary advantage and any such variant would become dominant very quickly. We need to stay alert to this but the priority is to protect as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

@ DavidL. Glad to see you back and hope you are doing well after your recent scare.

Taking it easy at home thanks. Going to be somewhat under powered for a while yet but the projection is positive.

Really pleased to hear this. Take care of yourself.

Eldest has today had his first vaccine. So that's all 3 children with a first vaccine dose. A big relief.

An even bigger one was seeing him use a helmet when he went off on his bike. He's been silly about not using it before but the accident last week and his badly bruised head has changed his mind - in a way that all my nagging and begging didn't.

Children!

I am now on a heavy dose of blood thinning tablets and under instructions to turn up at Casualty if I bump my head in any meaningful way. My nascent career as professional abseiler and paraglider may have to go on hold!

Not great for the partaking of the singing ginger either David, hopefully a temporary thing.

FPT

The Brexit argument was based on the essential myth that we could retain all the benefits of the single market but avoid all of the compromises.

Scottish independence has its own myth; that the newly independent Scotland would not face a significant fiscal and monetary crisis at birth.

It is quite possible to live outside the single market, and it is quite possible to have an independent Scotland.

But there are costs.

Andy_Cooke said:

So… a week or so ago, England were fairly lame because they could only beat the Czech Republic and Croatia by 1-0 each in normal time.

One week later, Netherlands go out to the Czechs 2-0, and Croatia hold Spain 3-3 in normal time.

Those performances don’t look too bad in retrospect.

The optimist in me agrees

But knock out games are so different..

MattW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

I work in IT security, in significantly less important roles than governmental communications.

The issue is probably, as these things always are, with the governmental equivalent of the C-suite exempting themselves from the agreed rules, which are supposed to apply to everyone.

I am a little surprised that the security services don't insist on what is, frankly, pretty basic security protocol.

I did a case years ago involving insider dealing in the shares of a defence company with close ties to the government. All the bankers / traders were looked at but it was as clear as the sun in the sky that the leaks of inside information were coming from inside government. Indeed they barely bothered hiding it. It was an appalling - and doubtless very profitable - abuse of power.

This sort of poor security is incredibly dangerous.

And the government then has the nerve to suggest that we ought to trust them with our personal health and other data.

It’s astonishing that we’ve discovered today, that the SoS Heath’s office has a Chinese camera in it, the office is managed by a private management company, and the CCTV room is open to someone with a mobile phone to record it.

I’d have assumed that the ‘top floor’ offices in government departments would have Special Branch and MI5 all over them - but apparently not!

From what I was told a few years ago the government only really cares about security regarding the the following departments

1) The PM

2) The Treasury

3) FCO

4) Home Office

5) Defence

6) Northern Ireland

I think five of those six are the only ministers that have armed bodyguards.

We'll need to start caring about some more post-Brexit - BEIS and IT for two.

When I first moved to London in 2000 and started using the tube I was shocked just how many times I saw so many different ministers (including cabinet ministers) using the tube.

As someone who has always been interested in the murder of Olof Palme I found it surprising.

Why is Number 10 claiming there was no private email use at the Department of Health when there is clear evidence that there was - and probably still is?

Gardenwalker said:

Why is Number 10 claiming there was no private email use at the Department of Health when there is clear evidence that there was - and probably still is?

It was done from home?

Andy_Cooke said:

So… a week or so ago, England were fairly lame because they could only beat the Czech Republic and Croatia by 1-0 each in normal time.

One week later, Netherlands go out to the Czechs 2-0, and Croatia hold Spain 3-3 in normal time.

Those performances don’t look too bad in retrospect.

On the other hand, we didn't beat teams playing like this. If Croatia/Czechia had played against us how they have in their last 16 matches I doubt we'd have won.

Hopefully we too will perk up notably in the knockout stages.

More good news:

Scoop with @SarahNev: Dido Harding’s hopes of becoming the next head of NHS England have sharply diminished after Matt Hancock's exit, according to senior govt officials.

“I can’t see Dido getting the nod, especially after the last couple of days.”

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1409556058906017797?s=20

TimT said:

turbotubbs said:

TOPPING said:

TimT said:

TOPPING said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

What are your concerns about it?

I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?

I like the drive your car 10 miles comparison with COVID. In both cases, the bulk of the safety measures are in your hands and so you control most of the risks. But in both cases, you cannot control the risks from other idiots' behaviour, nor the unforeseen risks from the equipment (car/vaccine).

Yep. That is fair. You are at the mercy of bad drivers (of which you are not one, obvs) or over-effusive huggers (or snoggers, seeing as we're talking about teenagers).

Still interested to know the other 1/1,000 risks, that said.

See the table below:


Taken from terrificscience.org/lessonpdfs/Scientific_View_of_Risk.pdf

Going to have to buy the book referenced in the table now.

From US data, here is a list of equivalent risks:

3 hours in a coal mine
driving a car 300 miles
smoke 1.4 cigarettes
eat 100 charcoal-grilled steaks
live 20 years near a PVC plant
live 2 months in Denver
bicycle 10 miles
fly 1000 miles in a commercial jet
live 2 months with a smoker
live 150 years 20 miles from a nuclear reactor
drink 30 cans of soda
live 50 years 50 years 5 miles from a nuclear reactor

Source: Erik Hollnagel: Safety I and Safety II

Are those 1/1m? Surely not 1/1000?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Re the Gmail accounts for Ministers, if anyone at work sent any work material (not just very confidential stuff) to a private email address, it was automatically a disciplinary offence - sometimes leading to dismissal.

I am surprised that it isn't the same in government - not the disciplinaries - but the absolute ban on non-government email accounts. It is utterly insecure and very very poor practice.

There's history here. You'll never (i.e. really easily) guess who.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/20/michael-gove-department-private-email

Maybe this is a silly question. But is there not a Head of IT security in the civil service, in government departments etc?

What on earth is the point of having security services or, indeed, the Official Secrets Act, if all sorts of stuff is going to private email accounts which a child of 12 could probably easily hack?

I work in IT security, in significantly less important roles than governmental communications.

The issue is probably, as these things always are, with the governmental equivalent of the C-suite exempting themselves from the agreed rules, which are supposed to apply to everyone.

I am a little surprised that the security services don't insist on what is, frankly, pretty basic security protocol.

I did a case years ago involving insider dealing in the shares of a defence company with close ties to the government. All the bankers / traders were looked at but it was as clear as the sun in the sky that the leaks of inside information were coming from inside government. Indeed they barely bothered hiding it. It was an appalling - and doubtless very profitable - abuse of power.

This sort of poor security is incredibly dangerous.

And the government then has the nerve to suggest that we ought to trust them with our personal health and other data.

It’s astonishing that we’ve discovered today, that the SoS Heath’s office has a Chinese camera in it, the office is managed by a private management company, and the CCTV room is open to someone with a mobile phone to record it.

I’d have assumed that the ‘top floor’ offices in government departments would have Special Branch and MI5 all over them - but apparently not!

From what I was told a few years ago the government only really cares about security regarding the the following departments

1) The PM

2) The Treasury

3) FCO

4) Home Office

5) Defence

6) Northern Ireland

I think five of those six are the only ministers that have armed bodyguards.

All true, but ignoring the other departments completely, as appears to be the case here? A massive failing.

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Nope. They did the poached egg in the normal way but then got some, well I cannot call it Greek but strained, yoghurt. Crushed a garlic clove. Mixed it into the yoghurt. Presented the yoghurt on a plate and made a hole for,the egg. It had a melted butter sauce on top. Looked lovely.

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

DavidL said:

turbotubbs said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

You do know that there are hundreds of variants don't you? Only a few have characteristics that make a material difference to its ability to make people ill. And it cannot change too much it loses the ability to say bind to the ACE-2 receptors.
We need to be careful of variants, but there is little prospect of a sudden emergence of a variant which completely evades the current vaccines.

Yes I do know. The variants of concern as they call them, which have basically been the SA one, Kent and now Delta, have each increased the infectivity of the virus and its propensity to spread. The evolutionary advantage of this is obvious and there is a recognised tendency for viruses to develop in this way, also becoming more benign because this keeps their host alive for longer allowing more opportunities for transmission. Going by the past pattern it seems inevitable that an even more infectious variant than delta will be along very shortly.

The evidence to date is that none of these variants defeat the vaccine but in countries like ours where the majority of potential hosts are vaccinated the ability to do so would be a huge evolutionary advantage and any such variant would become dominant very quickly. We need to stay alert to this but the priority is to protect as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

@ DavidL. Glad to see you back and hope you are doing well after your recent scare.

Taking it easy at home thanks. Going to be somewhat under powered for a while yet but the projection is positive.

Really pleased to hear this. Take care of yourself.

Eldest has today had his first vaccine. So that's all 3 children with a first vaccine dose. A big relief.

An even bigger one was seeing him use a helmet when he went off on his bike. He's been silly about not using it before but the accident last week and his badly bruised head has changed his mind - in a way that all my nagging and begging didn't.

Children!

I am now on a heavy dose of blood thinning tablets and under instructions to turn up at Casualty if I bump my head in any meaningful way. My nascent career as professional abseiler and paraglider may have to go on hold!

Not great for the partaking of the singing ginger either David, hopefully a temporary thing.

What's it got to do with Mick Hucknall?

Taz said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Nope. They did the poached egg in the normal way but then got some, well I cannot call it Greek but strained, yoghurt. Crushed a garlic clove. Mixed it into the yoghurt. Presented the yoghurt on a plate and made a hole for,the egg. It had a melted butter sauce on top. Looked lovely.

Hmm. Lo-carb.

MattW said:

Taz said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Nope. They did the poached egg in the normal way but then got some, well I cannot call it Greek but strained, yoghurt. Crushed a garlic clove. Mixed it into the yoghurt. Presented the yoghurt on a plate and made a hole for,the egg. It had a melted butter sauce on top. Looked lovely.

Hmm. Lo-carb.

Good point, it would go great with a flatbread.

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

More good news:

Scoop with @SarahNev: Dido Harding’s hopes of becoming the next head of NHS England have sharply diminished after Matt Hancock's exit, according to senior govt officials.

“I can’t see Dido getting the nod, especially after the last couple of days.”

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1409556058906017797?s=20

So Hancock’s bit on the side is pretty much unalloyed good news for the rest of the country, albeit a dreadful tragedy for the two families involved?

Javid will be all over the politics for a while. Hancock might have been listening to the NHS. It's probably a false impression, but I sensed that the NHS staff quite liked him.

What we know with certainty is that Javid has made his decision before he's assessed the situation. This is really bad news.

Taz said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Nope. They did the poached egg in the normal way but then got some, well I cannot call it Greek but strained, yoghurt. Crushed a garlic clove. Mixed it into the yoghurt. Presented the yoghurt on a plate and made a hole for,the egg. It had a melted butter sauce on top. Looked lovely.

Hmm. Lo-carb.

Good point, it would go great with a flatbread.

Why spoil it

StuartDickson said:

There is another “voting segment” that is hostile to BoJo:

BoJo net approval Opinium

London +19
South +2
Midlands -6
North -11
NI -13
Wales -16
Scotland -33

Those numbers look very odd. The opposite of what we normally see with regard to London, the Midlands and the North, for instance.

Taz said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

ping said:

Croatia!!
3-3

Great game

Oh dear, and I have been watching a YouTube video on how to make Turkish poached eggs

Now I'm curious what the difference is between a regular poached egg and a Turkish one.

Switched the game on due to the messages here. Great attempt by Croatia then straight away at the start of Extra Time.

I think that they poach eggs in other things (like mashed tomatoes rather than water), and then eat them together.

Black_Rook said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

On topic, isn't it strange that C2DE Remainers are more pro-Boris than C2DE Leavers?

It is - and the answer to why is (I sense) of profound import. We should get working on it. Has he disappointed blue collar Leavers in some way perhaps? Was our Brexit not hard enough for them? This would explain why their Remainer equivalents are relatively more supportive.

It may be just a statistical anomaly. But interesting if confirmed by further research/polls.

Yes - and tbh I'm dubious.

Theory: the C2DE Remainers mostly wanted to Leave as well, but were frightened by predictions of economic catastrophe into backing what Cameron wanted. Catastrophe failed to happen, so now they have repudiated their previous allegiance and back Boris with the zealousness of converts. Or something.

It’s called Cilbir, apparently.

Yeah - many names as many countries do such a thing.

StuartDickson said:

There is another “voting segment” that is hostile to BoJo:

BoJo net approval Opinium

London +19
South +2
Midlands -6
North -11
NI -13
Wales -16
Scotland -33

***DODGY SUBSAMPLE KLAXON***

No way on Earth Johnson's support is highest in London

StuartDickson said:

There is another “voting segment” that is hostile to BoJo:

BoJo net approval Opinium

London +19
South +2
Midlands -6
North -11
NI -13
Wales -16
Scotland -33

His highest approval rating is in London?

Sounds counterintuitive.

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_Cooke said:

So… a week or so ago, England were fairly lame because they could only beat the Czech Republic and Croatia by 1-0 each in normal time.

One week later, Netherlands go out to the Czechs 2-0, and Croatia hold Spain 3-3 in normal time.

Those performances don’t look too bad in retrospect.

Yep - we are massive contenders here. Final at least.

PMSL, flight on Tuesday night more like.

No flight either way, Malcolm. The team is esconsed in a hotel near me. So are the Germans in another one. I might pop out at 3 am and serenade them with a selection of power ballads.