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The voting segment that is most hostile to BoJo – ABC1 Remainers – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,668
    Today's figures:

    Russia: 21,650 cases, 611 deaths
    UK: 22,868 cases, 3 deaths
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    We should be trying to achieve herd immunity through vaccination instead of letting it run rife through children because they are seen as lower risk, and the chances of them dying from Covid is seen as very low. The virus being able to spread freely in such a large segment/demographic group of the population will only increase the likelihood of variants. We need to vaccinate everyone we can IMO, put this virus in the worst position possible and restrict it's ability as much as possible to mutate.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

    “The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

    Which is completely at odds with what the local L:abour activists have been telling Nick. It seems like B&S is just turning into a complete sh1t show.
    Why are you believing an incognito whisper to the Times over a post to PB from our Nick?
    You must be new....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
    The hospital admissions are ticking up, but certainly not sky rocketing. 8-9 days of broadly the same amount of daily admissions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Its amazing how pro-child vaccinators are suddenly taking on the mantle of victorian philanthropists concerned with the health of the young.

    They are presumably the same pro-vaccinators who were silent when children's education and exercise was severely and at times entirely curtailed for months on end, to the huge detriment of their physical and mental health -

    a detriment far greater than a dose of covid could ever have done, or a vaccine from it ever repair.

    Why must you change what people say - most of us have said its about both herd immunity for all and to protect the very small minority of children who could suffer life changing consequences from catching the delta version of covid. If we did not have delta, I suspect daily cases would be in the hundreds and there would be no case to vaccinate the U18s in general. But its here, and spreading fast in those age groups.

    It really would be easier if you just admitted to being an anti-vaxer.
    No it would be much easier if you admitted you are a complete hypocrite.

    For sixteen months the education and exercise of children, things that really really affected all their lives, 999 in 1,000 not 1 in 1,000 was not a priority,

    Now suddenly, vaccinating them against a disease that doesn't really affect them, is??

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,810

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    You find it extraordinary that anybody could consider ethics in a way that isn't entirely selfish.
    The selfishness has come entirely from the boomer generation, who have destroyed the education, mental health and life chances of young people to save themselves. At every single turn.

    Well yes. But I don't think that equates to 'don't vaccinate children'.
    If the information we have shows that the risks of giving children the vaccine are less than letting them catch covid, to me, that equates to give them the vaccine. Because the odds of them not getting covid seem small.
    Now its quite difficult to evaluate the risks of children catching covid. They almost certainly won't die. But there is a non-negligible chance that they might get quite ill. In a life-changing way? I'm not sure. But then again, the risks from the vaccine also seem tiny.

    If my daughters had the chance to get vaccinated, I'd be very keen for them to be. My understanding is that though covid almost certainly won't kill them, it might make them seriously ill. Particularly the asthmatic one. Possibly in a way which does them permanent harm. Whereas the risk from the vaccine seems negligible.

    It seems inevitable that they will be exposed to covid - particularly if we don't vaccinate children. The only calculation is what risk to them this is (in terms of more complex than just death or no death).

    And I've been with you all the way on wanting to open up. I don't think lockdown works very well, and even if it did it would be a disproportionate reaction to the problem. But I don't see why thinking that should mean I don't want everyone who would benefit from it to be vaccinated.
    I simply find it strange that people who were quite happy to see the lives of the young destroyed in ways covid could never have done think it is suddenly 'moral' to protect children from it.

    If they had really wanted to protect children, they would allowed them to go on having their education, and exercising, right through the pandemic.

    The lack of both affects more than 1 in a thousand. As will the poverty that comes with the enormous debt they have been saddled with.

    Well yes. Given the choice, I wouldn't have restricted children's freedom either. But it's not an either/or, is it? We can be in favour of children's freedom and in favour of vaccinating them against disease (assuming the balance of risks shows this to be sensible).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    Vaccinations for diseases that affect children are essential. We all know what they are and why they should be taken.

    Vaccinations for diseases that don't affect children....??? What's that all about?

    It is not about the health of children.
    Now you have jumped the shark. Covid can affect children, and quite seriously. Its not just death that is at issue, but the potential for life changing damage to organs etc.
    lack of exercise and lack of education affects children much more seriously.

    Comment from pro child-vax people on the prolonged denial of both during this pandemic, such as yourself?

    None.
    Because we are not discussing that. I have no doubt that the way we have handled schools and the effects on children has been very poor, especially so for the poor bastards in cities in flats with no outsides. Schools should have been handled better, but its not totally clear what the best way is. I think the isolation policies have been poor when there are cases in schools. But the main point is you have moved away from talking about vaccination to talk about something else - don't you want to talk about vaccination any more?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    UK cases by specimen date scaled to 100K population per area

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    England PCR positivity

    image
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

    That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

    The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

    So no, he can't change anything at this point.

    *Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.
    Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).
    Why?

    It seems to me we have a better takeup than any other nation on the planet (considering Canada have authorised 12+ and we haven't).

    There will be a minority of refuseniks. That is their right. They're wrong, but they're entitled to be wrong and to live with their consequences.
    I did the arithmetic on this about a week ago and can't be bothered to repeat the operation but in round terms there were about 10m awaiting a first dose and just over 20m awaiting a second. At 150k a day for first doses there is in fact a long way to go yet and even longer for second doses.

    It is also obvious we are getting to some of the harder to reach sections of society although my own family shows that is still an over simplification. We will come up against resistance. As you say, that is their right but we need to think how we incentivise those who have proven to be reluctant. It is why I backed covid passports, for example.

    If we had kept up with the April/early May rate I do not think that the delay on 21st June would have been necessary but we didn't. We have slowed further and that makes the decision in July more marginal than it should have been. I remain convinced we need to go for the removal of regulation as soon as possible but the quid pro quo is surely rapid vaccination.
    With respect, your numbers were wrong.

    People who are not intending to get vaccinated, like contrarian, are not "waiting to be vaccinated". If you include them you'll be waiting forever. You can't assume 100% are going to be vaccinated and if you assume that all your calculations will be wrong.

    First doses alone we have done 84.4% of the adult population with 44.45 million doses done.

    If we reached 54.44 million doses done then we would have vaccinated 103.4% of our adult population. Not just meaning we'd have vaccinated everyone like contrarian, but also mathematically impossible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    edited June 2021
    UK case summary

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445
    Andrew Marr has a piece on the BBC website (bbc/Health) about catching and suffering from Covid.

    'I can't be sure - but working back, I'm pretty clear I caught the Delta variant of coronavirus during the summit of G7 (Group of Seven) nations, in Cornwall, probably on Sunday 13 June'

    Interesting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    UK hospitals

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021

    Andrew Marr has a piece on the BBC website (bbc/Health) about catching and suffering from Covid.

    'I can't be sure - but working back, I'm pretty clear I caught the Delta variant of coronavirus during the summit of G7 (Group of Seven) nations, in Cornwall, probably on Sunday 13 June'

    Interesting.

    Its not really. We know there was an outbreak there so seems likely. He was unfortunate to catch it, but seems like the vaccine did its job and a week later he is back at work.

    I think sensible advice at the moment is to avoid spending a lot of time in situations with big groups of different people, especially younger people outside of your family group, who won't be double jabbed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
    The hospital admissions are ticking up, but certainly not sky rocketing. 8-9 days of broadly the same amount of daily admissions.
    Yep - vaccines doing exactly what they are supposed to and what JVCI set out - protect the ones who would end up in hospital (like A. Marr, who looked pretty chipper on Sunday after his bout with (presumably) delta).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    UK deaths

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    image
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    jonny83 said:

    We should be trying to achieve herd immunity through vaccination instead of letting it run rife through children because they are seen as lower risk, and the chances of them dying from Covid is seen as very low. The virus being able to spread freely in such a large segment/demographic group of the population will only increase the likelihood of variants. We need to vaccinate everyone we can IMO, put this virus in the worst position possible and restrict it's ability as much as possible to mutate.

    I find this line of argument troubling.

    Surely one aspect of the pandemic Britain can’t realistically control is the mutations. They’re gonna happen worldwide, all the time, and unless we totally pull up the drawbridge forevermore, we’re going to be vulnerable. Vaxxing British kids isn’t going to shift the odds against mutants in any meaningful way.

    Say it ain’t so
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    UK R

    image
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    Its amazing how pro-child vaccinators are suddenly taking on the mantle of victorian philanthropists concerned with the health of the young.

    They are presumably the same pro-vaccinators who were silent when children's education and exercise was severely and at times entirely curtailed for months on end, to the huge detriment of their physical and mental health -

    a detriment far greater than a dose of covid could ever have done, or a vaccine from it ever repair.

    Why must you change what people say - most of us have said its about both herd immunity for all and to protect the very small minority of children who could suffer life changing consequences from catching the delta version of covid. If we did not have delta, I suspect daily cases would be in the hundreds and there would be no case to vaccinate the U18s in general. But its here, and spreading fast in those age groups.

    It really would be easier if you just admitted to being an anti-vaxer.
    No it would be much easier if you admitted you are a complete hypocrite.

    For sixteen months the education and exercise of children, things that really really affected all their lives, 999 in 1,000 not 1 in 1,000 was not a priority,

    Now suddenly, vaccinating them against a disease that doesn't really affect them, is??

    Ok feck off - find a comment by me saying what you allege or get back into the swamp. I have never said anything about schools and children in that context.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,104

    I see the Liar is already lying about sacking Hancock according to Mail. Total and utter fabrication by Johnson. He backed him. He said the matter was closed.

    In fairness to Johnson "I sacked Hancock" were not words he uttered.
    Also in fairness to Johnson, he's such a practiced liar that his blustering bullshit can convey the dishonest impression he desires, while maintaining a threadbare deniability.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited June 2021

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
    The hospital admissions are ticking up, but certainly not sky rocketing. 8-9 days of broadly the same amount of daily admissions.
    Yep - vaccines doing exactly what they are supposed to and what JVCI set out - protect the ones who would end up in hospital (like A. Marr, who looked pretty chipper on Sunday after his bout with (presumably) delta).
    Someone who has been very sick in the past, and might have been considered a serious risk a few months ago, before the vaccines.

    Get vaccinated, people. They’re working!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    Age related data

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    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    Vaccinations for diseases that affect children are essential. We all know what they are and why they should be taken.

    Vaccinations for diseases that don't affect children....??? What's that all about?

    It is not about the health of children.
    Now you have jumped the shark. Covid can affect children, and quite seriously. Its not just death that is at issue, but the potential for life changing damage to organs etc.
    lack of exercise and lack of education affects children much more seriously.

    Comment from pro child-vax people on the prolonged denial of both during this pandemic, such as yourself?

    None.
    Because we are not discussing that. I have no doubt that the way we have handled schools and the effects on children has been very poor, especially so for the poor bastards in cities in flats with no outsides. Schools should have been handled better, but its not totally clear what the best way is. I think the isolation policies have been poor when there are cases in schools. But the main point is you have moved away from talking about vaccination to talk about something else - don't you want to talk about vaccination any more?
    I just don't see why vaccination of children is a priority, when so much that was so much more important for them, wasn't.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316
    Vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    Vaccinations for diseases that affect children are essential. We all know what they are and why they should be taken.

    Vaccinations for diseases that don't affect children....??? What's that all about?

    It is not about the health of children.
    Now you have jumped the shark. Covid can affect children, and quite seriously. Its not just death that is at issue, but the potential for life changing damage to organs etc.
    lack of exercise and lack of education affects children much more seriously.

    Comment from pro child-vax people on the prolonged denial of both during this pandemic, such as yourself?

    None.
    Because we are not discussing that. I have no doubt that the way we have handled schools and the effects on children has been very poor, especially so for the poor bastards in cities in flats with no outsides. Schools should have been handled better, but its not totally clear what the best way is. I think the isolation policies have been poor when there are cases in schools. But the main point is you have moved away from talking about vaccination to talk about something else - don't you want to talk about vaccination any more?
    I just don't see why vaccination of children is a priority, when so much that was so much more important for them, wasn't.

    If you talk to teenagers, you will be surprised to find that many of them want to be vaccinated.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Nigelb said:

    I see the Liar is already lying about sacking Hancock according to Mail. Total and utter fabrication by Johnson. He backed him. He said the matter was closed.

    In fairness to Johnson "I sacked Hancock" were not words he uttered.
    Also in fairness to Johnson, he's such a practiced liar that his blustering bullshit can convey the dishonest impression he desires, while maintaining a threadbare deniability.
    I suspect both Johnson and the fanbois will believe his interpretation of events despite reality.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 224
    edited June 2021

    So basically the richer / smarter you are the less favourably you consider the liar in chief.

    The more up yourself you are the more you hate BJ
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445

    Andrew Marr has a piece on the BBC website (bbc/Health) about catching and suffering from Covid.

    'I can't be sure - but working back, I'm pretty clear I caught the Delta variant of coronavirus during the summit of G7 (Group of Seven) nations, in Cornwall, probably on Sunday 13 June'

    Interesting.

    Its not really. We know there was an outbreak there so seems likely. He was unfortunate to catch it, but seems like the vaccine did its job and a week later he is back at work.

    I think sensible advice at the moment is to avoid spending a lot of time in situations with big groups of different people, especially younger people outside of your family group, who won't be double jabbed.
    Indeed; however, it's his description of the illness which is noteworthy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Mad stage in the Tour, good for my Roglic sale though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578
    edited June 2021
    Still thinking there must be some months old historic Covid deaths being dumped in the system in recent days/weeks.

    South Hams, for example. Past week, no Covid admissions to hospital. Same as the week before.

    Past week, 0 Covid deaths. Previous week - 4 Covid deaths. But we haven't been having any Covid deaths announced for weeks. Something odd.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,628
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
    Didn't you also cause the First World War for a laugh, light a cigarette on the Hindenberg, and float the iceberg towards the Titanic?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    I've been told that someone my age has a 1 in 2 chance of having cancer.

    I've had two types.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Pulpstar said:

    Mad stage in the Tour, good for my Roglic sale though.

    Bit of a waste of time really. A boring sprint stage that didn't even give us a sprint and also ruined the GC battle.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    edited June 2021
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

    “The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

    I wonder how much of that is just hype to gtvo!
    It’s definitely a contrast with the more positive reports of @NickPalmer, who’s been working the phone banks for Labour and will be more keen to emphasise the good news.
    Another oddity is that IIRC the Survation poll showed Galloway making no headway in Spen (on 1% - see https://www.survation.com/survation-batley-and-spen-constituency-poll-tables-1/), which I think bears out what my friends tell me, since I think both Muslim wards are in Batley. So I'm sceptical about the anonymous campaigner.

    Don't let me mislead people - I've never been to Batley and anyway I'm not predicting a Labour win. I agree with the logic that the Tories should do as well as last time, while Labour will lose more votes to Galloway than they pick up from LibDems (FWIW the 4 LibDems and Greens who I talked to were all voting Labour tactically). The Labour vote has hardened slightly, but it's unlikely to be enough. I note that the Betfair Labour price has come in to 5.5 (from 7), and that sounds about right to me.

    I'm just saying two things:

    (1) As Quincel said, the Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway at 1-4 was amazing value. It's now moved out to 1-7. It ought to be about 1-50.

    (2) For all the stress about outsiders stirring up trouble and dodgy leaflets, voters are not into either extreme. Every conversation I had over 3 hours of phoning was polite and calm, often friendly. Don't be taken in by journalists looking for a good story - clearly there are problems, but it's not chaos.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021

    Andrew Marr has a piece on the BBC website (bbc/Health) about catching and suffering from Covid.

    'I can't be sure - but working back, I'm pretty clear I caught the Delta variant of coronavirus during the summit of G7 (Group of Seven) nations, in Cornwall, probably on Sunday 13 June'

    Interesting.

    Its not really. We know there was an outbreak there so seems likely. He was unfortunate to catch it, but seems like the vaccine did its job and a week later he is back at work.

    I think sensible advice at the moment is to avoid spending a lot of time in situations with big groups of different people, especially younger people outside of your family group, who won't be double jabbed.
    Indeed; however, it's his description of the illness which is noteworthy.
    The general symptoms fit with what are now the feature of the Indian variant i.e. like a bit of a cold / hayfever.

    "I couldn't smell anything - not aftershave, not coffee, nothing."

    This is very strange....with Indian variant, it is practically never a symptom anymore, and certainly not those who have been double vaccinated. Sounds like he was doubly unlucky, thankful not triply where it went further than being a bad flu.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    On the plus side you have a 1: 4,326,728 chance of dying of a lightning strike (I think these are US figures, however). You are probably safer in the north of England.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,668

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
    The hospital admissions are ticking up, but certainly not sky rocketing. 8-9 days of broadly the same amount of daily admissions.
    Yep - vaccines doing exactly what they are supposed to and what JVCI set out - protect the ones who would end up in hospital (like A. Marr, who looked pretty chipper on Sunday after his bout with (presumably) delta).
    He said it was "very nasty" but also described the symptoms as like a "summer cold", which doesn't sound particularly nasty.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
    Didn't you also cause the First World War for a laugh, light a cigarette on the Hindenberg, and float the iceberg towards the Titanic?
    :smile: - Yep. And I go into women's toilets and wave my tackle around.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

    “The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

    I wonder how much of that is just hype to gtvo!
    It’s definitely a contrast with the more positive reports of @NickPalmer, who’s been working the phone banks for Labour and will be more keen to emphasise the good news.
    Another oddity is that IIRC the Survation poll showed Galloway making no headway in Spen (on 1% - see https://www.survation.com/survation-batley-and-spen-constituency-poll-tables-1/), which I think bears out what my friends tell me, since I think both Muslim wards are in Batley. So I'm sceptical about the anonymous campaigner.

    Don't let me mislead people - I've never been to Batley and anyway I'm not predicting a Labour win. I agree with the logic that the Tories should do as well as last time, while Labour will lose more votes to Galloway than they pick up from LibDems (FWIW the 4 LibDems and Greens who I talked to were all voting Labour tactically). The Labour vote has hardened slightly, but it's unlikely to be enough. I note that the Betfair Labour price has come in to 5.5 (from 7), and that sounds about right to me.

    I'm just saying two things:

    (1) As Quincel said, the Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway at 1-4 was amazing value. It's now moved out to 1-7. It ought to be about 1-50.

    (2) For all the stress about outsiders stirring up trouble and dodgy leaflets, voters are not into either extreme. Every conversation I had over 3 hours of phoning was polite and calm, often friendly. Don't be taken in by journalists looking for a good story - clearly there are problems, but it's not chaos.
    Is the Modi leaflet real Nick?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    Vaccinations for diseases that affect children are essential. We all know what they are and why they should be taken.

    Vaccinations for diseases that don't affect children....??? What's that all about?

    It is not about the health of children.
    Now you have jumped the shark. Covid can affect children, and quite seriously. Its not just death that is at issue, but the potential for life changing damage to organs etc.
    lack of exercise and lack of education affects children much more seriously.

    Comment from pro child-vax people on the prolonged denial of both during this pandemic, such as yourself?

    None.
    Because we are not discussing that. I have no doubt that the way we have handled schools and the effects on children has been very poor, especially so for the poor bastards in cities in flats with no outsides. Schools should have been handled better, but its not totally clear what the best way is. I think the isolation policies have been poor when there are cases in schools. But the main point is you have moved away from talking about vaccination to talk about something else - don't you want to talk about vaccination any more?
    I just don't see why vaccination of children is a priority, when so much that was so much more important for them, wasn't.

    The only reason you could think that is because you are delusional zealot.

    Education and the harm lockdown is doing to children has barely been out of the news or discussions for the past year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
    Didn't you also cause the First World War for a laugh, light a cigarette on the Hindenberg, and float the iceberg towards the Titanic?
    Not to mention bullying Gareth to choose 4 right backs for his squad.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,518
    A very interesting article but few surprises in those figures. What is also to the point is that, looking at recent data:

    Remainers don't converge around Labour (only about 40% according to YouGov recently) but Brexit voters converge much more round the Tories (about 68% ditto).

    The Tories tend to lead in polling among ABC1 as well as C2DEs, despite the ABC1's disdain for Boris.

    If a party could, by its policies and public stance, create a home and a coherent way forward for centrist Remainers and (soi disant) anti populists they will clean up. No party has a clear and distinct non unicorn policy for the post Brexit world, though the Tories come closest.

    Often parties can get away with telling us what they don't want. I don't think these times are like that. I have not got a clue what Labour policy is on the out of EU future, the Ireland border question or lots else.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    I've been told that someone my age has a 1 in 2 chance of having cancer.

    I've had two types.
    I've had leukemia so i tell my wife I've had the 1 in 2 for our marriage...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
    Didn't you also cause the First World War for a laugh, light a cigarette on the Hindenberg, and float the iceberg towards the Titanic?
    You're forgetting the suggestions to the Georgian bandit to go into politics and the Austrian street artist who to blame after he came back from the war.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    22,868....3....227


    Missing data from yesterday - I'd suggest taking an average of the two days for a more realistic position.
    The hospital admissions are ticking up, but certainly not sky rocketing. 8-9 days of broadly the same amount of daily admissions.
    Yep - vaccines doing exactly what they are supposed to and what JVCI set out - protect the ones who would end up in hospital (like A. Marr, who looked pretty chipper on Sunday after his bout with (presumably) delta).
    He said it was "very nasty" but also described the symptoms as like a "summer cold", which doesn't sound particularly nasty.
    Obviously man flu...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    What are you thinking "vaccination" means? What's your mental image there?
    People being given lethal injections en masse.
    That was rather what I got from the post. Visions of wooden huts and crocodile smiles.
    You supported stopping children exercising.

    You supported stopping children learning.

    You supported saddling them with enormous debt

    I didn't.

    If there are wooden huts and crocodile smiles at all, that's where they are.

    Vaccination of children against covid? for me there are just much bigger priorities.
    Not sure this is quite fair. You're making me sound like a truly horrible piece of work.
    Didn't you also cause the First World War for a laugh, light a cigarette on the Hindenberg, and float the iceberg towards the Titanic?
    :smile: - Yep. And I go into women's toilets and wave my tackle around.
    Careful - if you stand for public office that could be used against you!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    I am not a statistician but that seems a remarkably low sample to reach such a general conclusion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    I've been told that someone my age has a 1 in 2 chance of having cancer.

    I've had two types.
    I've had leukemia so i tell my wife I've had the 1 in 2 for our marriage...
    I say something similar. Trust you're OK now.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited June 2021
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

    “The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

    I wonder how much of that is just hype to gtvo!
    It’s definitely a contrast with the more positive reports of @NickPalmer, who’s been working the phone banks for Labour and will be more keen to emphasise the good news.
    Another oddity is that IIRC the Survation poll showed Galloway making no headway in Spen (on 1% - see https://www.survation.com/survation-batley-and-spen-constituency-poll-tables-1/), which I think bears out what my friends tell me, since I think both Muslim wards are in Batley. So I'm sceptical about the anonymous campaigner.

    Don't let me mislead people - I've never been to Batley and anyway I'm not predicting a Labour win. I agree with the logic that the Tories should do as well as last time, while Labour will lose more votes to Galloway than they pick up from LibDems (FWIW the 4 LibDems and Greens who I talked to were all voting Labour tactically). The Labour vote has hardened slightly, but it's unlikely to be enough. I note that the Betfair Labour price has come in to 5.5 (from 7), and that sounds about right to me.

    I'm just saying two things:

    (1) As Quincel said, the Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway at 1-4 was amazing value. It's now moved out to 1-7. It ought to be about 1-50.

    (2) For all the stress about outsiders stirring up trouble and dodgy leaflets, voters are not into either extreme. Every conversation I had over 3 hours of phoning was polite and calm, often friendly. Don't be taken in by journalists looking for a good story - clearly there are problems, but it's not chaos.
    Is the Modi leaflet real Nick?
    There is an article in.the Times posted at midday about Batley and Spen.. doesn't sound very good for Labour.... but who knows for certain. George is definitely going for the jugular.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445
    edited June 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    Spurs bought by an Arab. That's going to cause confusion!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,408

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
    NI 2,533 / 4,378

    Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.
    Disagreed.

    The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

    If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

    There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.
    The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?
    Are we vaccinating the young

    A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

    or

    B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?
    Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.


    Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.
    Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.
    I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.
    Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

    What are your concerns about it?
    I would be interested to know other 1/1,000 risks.

    Is it a dying while trying to put your trousers on kind of risk or a jump in the car and drive 10 miles up the A1 risk?
    If driving on the A1 was a 1/1000 risk then assuming you drive twice a day on weekdays alone you'd expect serious injury within five years as a median.

    I've driven twenty years without serious injury so either massively beaten the odds or driving is not a 1/1000 risk.
    I've been told that someone my age has a 1 in 2 chance of having cancer.

    I've had two types.
    I've had leukemia so i tell my wife I've had the 1 in 2 for our marriage...
    I say something similar. Trust you're OK now.
    Yes - remission since late 2012. Thanks for asking!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    Poor gag....off to watch GB News for 24hrs for you.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Its amazing how pro-child vaccinators are suddenly taking on the mantle of victorian philanthropists concerned with the health of the young.

    They are presumably the same pro-vaccinators who were silent when children's education and exercise was severely and at times entirely curtailed for months on end, to the huge detriment of their physical and mental health -

    a detriment far greater than a dose of covid could ever have done, or a vaccine from it ever repair.

    Why must you change what people say - most of us have said its about both herd immunity for all and to protect the very small minority of children who could suffer life changing consequences from catching the delta version of covid. If we did not have delta, I suspect daily cases would be in the hundreds and there would be no case to vaccinate the U18s in general. But its here, and spreading fast in those age groups.

    It really would be easier if you just admitted to being an anti-vaxer.
    No it would be much easier if you admitted you are a complete hypocrite.

    For sixteen months the education and exercise of children, things that really really affected all their lives, 999 in 1,000 not 1 in 1,000 was not a priority,

    Now suddenly, vaccinating them against a disease that doesn't really affect them, is??


    You may think that a disease that would hospitalise 10,000-20,000 (more) children in England alone if they remain unvaccinated is irrelevant to them, or that having tens to hundreds of thousands of them develop long term chronic conditions "doesn't really affect them", but others may disagree.
    Me, I'm uncomfortable with thousands of kids getting organ damage.
    I'm not completely clear how that makes me a hypocrite, but I often have difficulty following your chain of thought.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,418

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    Meanwhile Newcastle remains unsold.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    Spurs bought by an Arab. That's going to cause confusion!
    Sheik Hanvak...put the freshness back....read it aloud.


    Putting aside the belated April fool, an Arab famously bought the most right wing club (and well known for big block of racist fans) in Israeli football.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    err
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited June 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    Its a joke.. read it more carefully.. play on words....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    In any case, and with the danger of the visualisation getting too busy, I've updated my graphic on cases-versus-hospitalisations, and added hospital occupancy levels (in a fetching sickly yellow dashed overlay).

    All are normalised linearly to the same level as at the start of May (ie Cases from the 3rd of May and hospital admissions overlaid on that seven days later for the cases-to-hospital-admissions lag. Hospital occupancy on the same chronological scale as hospital admissions to show how the new admissions affect the occupancy levels.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845
    Spain should win this surely? Even with their trouble in scoring goals they are surely too good for Croatia, however much they consistently out perform.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043

    In any case, and with the danger of the visualisation getting too busy, I've updated my graphic on cases-versus-hospitalisations, and added hospital occupancy levels (in a fetching sickly yellow dashed overlay).

    All are normalised linearly to the same level as at the start of May (ie Cases from the 3rd of May and hospital admissions overlaid on that seven days later for the cases-to-hospital-admissions lag. Hospital occupancy on the same chronological scale as hospital admissions to show how the new admissions affect the occupancy levels.


    Two charts required I think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,316

    Its amazing how pro-child vaccinators are suddenly taking on the mantle of victorian philanthropists concerned with the health of the young.

    They are presumably the same pro-vaccinators who were silent when children's education and exercise was severely and at times entirely curtailed for months on end, to the huge detriment of their physical and mental health -

    a detriment far greater than a dose of covid could ever have done, or a vaccine from it ever repair.

    Why must you change what people say - most of us have said its about both herd immunity for all and to protect the very small minority of children who could suffer life changing consequences from catching the delta version of covid. If we did not have delta, I suspect daily cases would be in the hundreds and there would be no case to vaccinate the U18s in general. But its here, and spreading fast in those age groups.

    It really would be easier if you just admitted to being an anti-vaxer.
    No it would be much easier if you admitted you are a complete hypocrite.

    For sixteen months the education and exercise of children, things that really really affected all their lives, 999 in 1,000 not 1 in 1,000 was not a priority,

    Now suddenly, vaccinating them against a disease that doesn't really affect them, is??


    You may think that a disease that would hospitalise 10,000-20,000 (more) children in England alone if they remain unvaccinated is irrelevant to them, or that having tens to hundreds of thousands of them develop long term chronic conditions "doesn't really affect them", but others may disagree.
    Me, I'm uncomfortable with thousands of kids getting organ damage.
    I'm not completely clear how that makes me a hypocrite, but I often have difficulty following your chain of thought.
    Perhaps some hot broth and intravenous Jif will make it all clear?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,183
    Morning all, just my daily "numbers in hospital in England" analysis.

    The number in hospital in England grew by 14% week-over-week on Monday, which is slightly worse than the 9% it ended last week on, but is well down on the 20-30% levels that it was increasing by prior to the middle of last week.

    Regionally, the South West is the new hotspot, with in hospital leaping 59% week-over-week, albeit from low levels. The second fastest growing region is the North East, where cases grew 24%. While the number of Covid beds in use in London actually fell.

    My key takeaway would be this: in every English region, the pace of bed usage slowed from a week ago, and the linkage between infections and hospitalisations appears to be very significantly weakened.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,418

    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    Its a joke.. read it more carefully.. play on words....
    Shake n vac !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    I've seen this around and about here....and I wondered what use they were without training. Question answered.

    The Shocking New Use for Red Telephone Boxes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecVHYg4_vZw
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    DavidL said:

    Spain should win this surely? Even with their trouble in scoring goals they are surely too good for Croatia, however much they consistently out perform.

    They should, not sure they should be 1.66 to win in 90 minutes though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,994
    This is nonsense. PM's PPS knows it. Cabinet Secretary knows it. I can prove it with screenshots from my phone. E.g PM/Hancock used WhatsApp to discuss procurement issues viz Tory donor network with no10 officials. Media shd insist PMOS consult PM PPS & correct the record ASAP
    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1409541288672825346
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June

    We are starting to see a few signs that Tories numbers are down a bit, has been average of ~43% for so many months now. The big difference again is always the Labour number, is it ~30% or is it ~36%, or somewhere in between.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Javid on his feet....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,567
    Croatia 7 / 7.2
    Spain 1.63 / 1.64
    Draw 4 / 4.1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.184725872
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298

    Its amazing how pro-child vaccinators are suddenly taking on the mantle of victorian philanthropists concerned with the health of the young.

    They are presumably the same pro-vaccinators who were silent when children's education and exercise was severely and at times entirely curtailed for months on end, to the huge detriment of their physical and mental health -

    a detriment far greater than a dose of covid could ever have done, or a vaccine from it ever repair.

    Why must you change what people say - most of us have said its about both herd immunity for all and to protect the very small minority of children who could suffer life changing consequences from catching the delta version of covid. If we did not have delta, I suspect daily cases would be in the hundreds and there would be no case to vaccinate the U18s in general. But its here, and spreading fast in those age groups.

    It really would be easier if you just admitted to being an anti-vaxer.
    No it would be much easier if you admitted you are a complete hypocrite.

    For sixteen months the education and exercise of children, things that really really affected all their lives, 999 in 1,000 not 1 in 1,000 was not a priority,

    Now suddenly, vaccinating them against a disease that doesn't really affect them, is??

    You may think that a disease that would hospitalise 10,000-20,000 (more) children in England alone if they remain unvaccinated is irrelevant to them, or that having tens to hundreds of thousands of them develop long term chronic conditions "doesn't really affect them", but others may disagree.
    Me, I'm uncomfortable with thousands of kids getting organ damage.
    I'm not completely clear how that makes me a hypocrite, but I often have difficulty following your chain of thought.
    What is the difference in death rates in Britain right now between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated among those who are getting hospitalised as a result of symptoms caused by SARSCoV2?

    "COVID-19 hospitalizations among children likely overcounted, researchers find"".

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,445

    I've seen this around and about here....and I wondered what use they were without training. Question answered.

    The Shocking New Use for Red Telephone Boxes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecVHYg4_vZw

    There's one in a village near Chelmsford, and I had wondered.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    April 1st? Seriously? Levy sold?

    Not that I know anything about word on the street but he never seemed the type to sell.
    Its a joke.. read it more carefully.. play on words....
    D'oh!

    Well at least I allowed myself a modicum of scepticism.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,043
    edited June 2021
    Crickey a grown up professional politician at the dispatch box....

    Freedom Day is happening. Zero Covidians getting an immediate punch in the gut.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,094
    No reason to go beyond the 19th July

    This is the headlines tomorrow
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    Javid on his feet....

    Hancock on his arse...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,059
    Although unsurprising that ABC1 Remainers are most hostile to Boris Johnson, a bit more surprising that C2DE Remainers are less hostile to him than C2DE Leavers
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845
    edited June 2021

    I've seen this around and about here....and I wondered what use they were without training. Question answered.

    The Shocking New Use for Red Telephone Boxes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecVHYg4_vZw

    Around here several have become leave and take kiosks for things like unwanted books, excess garden veg etc. Community councils seem to keep them in some sort of order.

    Edit, 55 years ago it was very different. At Worthy Down, just outside Winchester there was an army base with a lot of Scots including my father. On a Saturday night there would be a queue down the street as everyone phoned home and passed the weekly news. It was not the done thing to use more than about 3 coins and those who were thought to have done so would receive a tut on the way out. Probably had more trouble getting served in the NAAFI shop too. As a young kid this is how I spoke to my Grand parents who were in phone boxes in Dundee. No one had a phone in their house in those days and the idea you might have one in your pocket would have been laughable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,059
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June

    On those numbers Labour would hold Batley
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,094
    HYUFD said:

    Although unsurprising that ABC1 Remainers are most hostile to Boris Johnson, a bit more surprising that C2DE Remainers are less hostile to him than C2DE Leavers

    Are you happily married now @HYUFD
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Floater said:
    Incredible if it is is legit. I struggle to believe it can be - residual brainshwashing that Labour are the good guys affecting me maybe

    Sir Keir needs to come out and say this leaflet, if it is an offical Labour leaflet, is a disgrace - he was right in what he said last year

    "We must not allow issues of the sub-continent to divide communities here”

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,094
    Ashworth all negative and doom and gloom
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited June 2021

    Big Tottenham Hotspur takeover news; They have been bought by a billionaire from Dubai. The deal has been rumoured for some weeks now and will be announced formally next week . Reports suggest the billionaire is Sheik Hanvak. He is going to put the freshness back into the club.

    Who is Sheikh Hanvak, not a name I know at all?

    There’s a Sheikh Hamdan, who’s the crown prince of Dubai.

    Edit: LOL, that was a joke and I missed it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June

    On those numbers Labour would hold Batley
    How would they have done in Hartlepool on the contemporary (contemporaneous?) National polling? Lose by 28%? Redfield & Wilton had a 2% Tory lead at the time
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Although unsurprising that ABC1 Remainers are most hostile to Boris Johnson, a bit more surprising that C2DE Remainers are less hostile to him than C2DE Leavers

    Are you happily married now @HYUFD
    Yes, been married for over a week now thanks and just returned from a Cotswolds honeymoon
    Congrats to you both
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,059
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June

    On those numbers Labour would hold Batley
    How would they have done in Hartlepool on the contemporary (contemporaneous?) National polling? Lose by 28%? Redfield & Wilton had a 2% Tory lead at the time
    There was a far bigger Brexit Party vote in Hartlepool in 2019 though, 25% for the Tories to squeeze compared to just 3% in Batley and Spen
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Although unsurprising that ABC1 Remainers are most hostile to Boris Johnson, a bit more surprising that C2DE Remainers are less hostile to him than C2DE Leavers

    Are you happily married now @HYUFD
    Yes, been married for over a week now thanks and just returned from a Cotswolds honeymoon
    Many congrats!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    40s
    Westminster Voting Intention (28 June):

    Conservative 41% (-3)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 21 June

    On those numbers Labour would hold Batley
    Sadly I don't share your pessimist HYUFD.

    Galloway plus the newly found Northern love for Johnson and hatred for Labour will Trump UNS.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845
    What a chance!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Although unsurprising that ABC1 Remainers are most hostile to Boris Johnson, a bit more surprising that C2DE Remainers are less hostile to him than C2DE Leavers

    Are you happily married now @HYUFD
    Yes, been married for over a week now thanks and just returned from a Cotswolds honeymoon
    Well done HY!
This discussion has been closed.