The voting segment that is most hostile to BoJo – ABC1 Remainers – politicalbetting.com

Major incident at what appears to be Elephant and Castle station in South London, the smoke from the fire can be seen for miles. https://twitter.com/MeganJearum/status/1409499332596932610/video/1

Scott_xP said:

Major incident at what appears to be Elephant and Castle station in South London, the smoke from the fire can be seen for miles. https://twitter.com/MeganJearum/status/1409499332596932610/video/1

Shit! That looks awful.

tlg86 said:

Scott_xP said:

Major incident at what appears to be Elephant and Castle station in South London, the smoke from the fire can be seen for miles. https://twitter.com/MeganJearum/status/1409499332596932610/video/1

Shit! That looks awful.

Some kind of flashover or deflagration - not an explosion.

So basically the richer / smarter you are the less favourably you consider the liar in chief.

Looks like a fire at a workshop under the arches. A big fire, hope everyone got out.

CarlottaVance said:

London Fire Brigade confirms it’s the railway arches near Elephant & Castle rail station- keep windows closed nearby & stay away from the area

https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1409503027489345540?s=20

So not the tube, thank goodness.

Sandpit said:

Looks like a fire at a workshop under the arches. A big fire, hope everyone got out.

Paint/inflamable gas probably, then. Though laser cutters have been known to start stuff as well.

Mind you, a metal fire from machining.....

DavidL said:

Just as well there's not too many of these ABC1 remainers on here, eh? Otherwise the government would be getting pelters day in and day out.

PB is very ABC1

Have the centrists been defending a leaflet that was actually a smear campaign designed to make Labour look bad?

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

The interesting thing about that graphic is not the ABC remainers it is the ABC leavers.

They are also strongly against Johnson.

I thought the C2DE Remainers were also very interesting. They disagreed with him over Brexit, but they still like him a lot.

Yes! in fact they like him more than the C2s who agreed with him!

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

The interesting thing about that graphic is not the ABC remainers it is the ABC leavers.

They are also strongly against Johnson.

I thought the C2DE Remainers were also very interesting. They disagreed with him over Brexit, but they still like him a lot.

Yes! in fact they like him more than the C2s who agreed with him!

I think this might be the first bit of polling since the Brexit referendum when we've seen something (occupational class) that has a stronger determinant on public opinion (approval of Johnson) than Brexit referendum vote.

A further 3,285 cases of Covid-19 have been recorded in Scotland, a new record high.

A total of 12.6% of people who were tested for the virus were positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57638936

The other interesting thing to go on the graph would be the percentage of the population in those groups. I don't doubt it is not equal but I'd like to know the relative size of each segment.

Pfizer and Moderna vaccines look like they will protect for a very long time against covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.html

I see the Liar is already lying about sacking Hancock according to Mail. Total and utter fabrication by Johnson. He backed him. He said the matter was closed.

So are Nissan and Boris making the joint annoucement about creating thousands of jobs on Thursday morning then? Might help fill the news void on the day of the by-election and convert a few waverers.

Of course many of us will still be discussing England's acrimonious exit from Euro 2020.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

Wimbledon: given that play is only possible on the two main courts because of rain, why on earth didn't they start earlier than the scheduled times so that more matches could be completed today?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

So are Nissan and Boris making the joint annoucement about creating thousands of jobs on Thursday morning then? Might help fill the news void on the day of the by-election and convert a few waverers.

Of course many of us will still be discussing England's acrimonious exit from Euro 2020.

Nissan is to announce a major expansion of battery production in Sunderland creating thousands of new jobs both directly and in the supply chain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57640001

I heard a rumour Boris will be visiting Sunderland later in the week.

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

So are Nissan and Boris making the joint annoucement about creating thousands of jobs on Thursday morning then? Might help fill the news void on the day of the by-election and convert a few waverers.

Of course many of us will still be discussing England's acrimonious exit from Euro 2020.

Nissan is to announce a major expansion of battery production in Sunderland creating thousands of new jobs both directly and in the supply chain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57640001

I heard a rumour Boris will be visiting Sunderland later in the week.

High viz jacket and all....

eek said:

Brom said:

So are Nissan and Boris making the joint annoucement about creating thousands of jobs on Thursday morning then? Might help fill the news void on the day of the by-election and convert a few waverers.

Of course many of us will still be discussing England's acrimonious exit from Euro 2020.

An enlarged factory in Sunderland won't win any votes 100+ miles area in Batley.

If anything it will emphasis how much Batley is a have not rather than a have place.

Yes but what would the Tories rather have in the news cycle on Thursday morning - a Conservative British economic success story that comforts the Brexit voters of that part of Yorkshire or some new CCTV of Matt Hancock getting his fingers wet?

If we're lucky we might get both of course.

Andy_JS said:

Wimbledon: given that play is only possible on the two main courts because of rain, why on earth didn't they start earlier than the scheduled times so that more matches could be completed today?

They've got 13 days. It'll be fine.

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

ping said:

A further 3,285 cases of Covid-19 have been recorded in Scotland, a new record high.

A total of 12.6% of people who were tested for the virus were positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57638936

Zero deaths recorded over the weekend despite this although no doubt there will be the odd laggard recorded. Even allowing for lags the link is broken. That is the key message (other than get your vaccines while their hot, 2 for absolutely nothing).

The small print is that the Registers are normally closed over the weekend, so wouldn't expect any deaths recorded, but the message is right. The vaccines work. Get yours in.

Absolutely. My 23 year old gets her first vaccine this afternoon at 4. My 17 year old has an appointment for his first in 2 weeks time. Daughter number 1 and us oldies are already double vaxxed.

I really want my son to have had both jabs before he goes away for University in October. The incredible slow down in the rate of vaccination has been making me anxious about this (since he would want to have had it no later than mid September) but I hope it will still be possible.

Batley & Spen: any word on how Anne-Marie Waters, candidate for the extreme-right For Britain party (formerly of Labour and UKIP), is faring?

Kind of strange how Tommy Robinson didn't show up on Saturday, because given his record you'd have thought he would be in his element. Or is the white-racist and Islamophobic extreme right not getting stuck into this one, for some reason?

Waters may take some votes that would otherwise go to the Tories - from those who previously switched from Labour or who would switch now if she weren't standing.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Yes.

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

So basically the richer / smarter you are the less favourably you consider the liar in chief.

Or, to put it another way, the better you did under the status quo the more likely you are to defend it. Which leaves the government is a somewhat ironic position for a Conservative party.

It also puts me in an interesting philosophical position. I'm somewhere in ABC1 (hard to work out exactly where - mid/senior academic) but I think C2DE have had a pretty raw deal over the past 20-30 years (and I have C2/D - when they were working - parents). So, my postion is that politicians should again care about C2DE. C2DE seem to think, generally, that this conservative government is good of them - or at least better than the alternative. Do I take a paternalistic approach and vote against the government anyway as I don't believe they'll really deliver for C2DE (therefore assuming that "I know best" what is best for C2DE) or do I accept that they know what they're on about? Or do I pull up the drawbridge and vote for whoever is best for me personally, somewhere in ABC1?

(I've probably voted LD, which is very ABC1, more often than for other parties over the past twenty years, although not recently, so I must concede I don't have much track record voting for the C2DE groups favoured parties).

"It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

“The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

An interesting header. So the big Johnson divide is educational not Brexit. The more book learning you have the more likely you are to see through him. I find this quite heartening because it means an anti-Johnson viewpoint is rather like a detached house with a patio and a basement wine collection - a sign of having arrived. As such, given the aspirational nature of the British people, it will be much sought after, and with it also being (unlike high end property and vintage merlot) attainable completely free of charge, simply requiring a quick and painless mental upgrade, the numbers are surely set to grow. I've just topped up on Starmer Next PM at 9.

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

If we get take-up to 90% of the population, that is very good, by vaccination standards.

We are giving out the vaccine in just about every way that can be thought of, for free.

The simple truth is that there are a chunk of people who won't take it. The government has tried with the recalcitrant sections of the population and is still trying. But, ultimately, we live in a world where people feel entitled to their own truth.

From the anti-vax garbage I have seen, much of it is beyond reason.

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

If we get take-up to 90% of the population, that is very good, by vaccination standards.

We are giving out the vaccine in just about every way that can be thought of, for free.

The simple truth is that there are a chunk of people who won't take it. The government has tried with the recalcitrant sections of the population and is still trying. But, ultimately, we live in a world where people feel entitled to their own truth.

From the anti-vax garbage I have seen, much of it is beyond reason.

I am certainly not wired into Bill Gates skynet after having my Moderna jabs...beep boop beep booppppppp.

Andy_JS said:

"It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

“The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

It seems depressing to ask this but would labour be vulnerable to a similar Galloway-style attack in London if Sadiq Khan was replaced with a female non-muslim?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

If we get take-up to 90% of the population, that is very good, by vaccination standards.

We are giving out the vaccine in just about every way that can be thought of, for free.

The simple truth is that there are a chunk of people who won't take it. The government has tried with the recalcitrant sections of the population and is still trying. But, ultimately, we live in a world where people feel entitled to their own truth.

From the anti-vax garbage I have seen, much of it is beyond reason.

I am certainly not wired into Bill Gates skynet after having my Moderna jabs...beep boop beep booppppppp.

I have already sent an angry e-mail to Microsoft - I didn't turn into the Incredible Hulk after mine. Which means, back to the gym. Sigh. Defective chip, I suppose.

kinabalu said:

An interesting header. So the big Johnson divide is educational not Brexit. The more book learning you have the more likely you are to see through him. I find this quite heartening because it means an anti-Johnson viewpoint is rather like a detached house with a patio and a basement wine collection - a sign of having arrived. As such, given the aspirational nature of the British people, it will be much sought after, and with it also being (unlike high end property and vintage merlot) attainable completely free of charge, simply requiring a quick and painless mental upgrade, the numbers are surely set to grow. I've just topped up on Starmer Next PM at 9.

Back him to go by Aug as a Hedge?

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

Why?

It seems to me we have a better takeup than any other nation on the planet (considering Canada have authorised 12+ and we haven't).

There will be a minority of refuseniks. That is their right. They're wrong, but they're entitled to be wrong and to live with their consequences.

turbotubbs said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

You do know that there are hundreds of variants don't you? Only a few have characteristics that make a material difference to its ability to make people ill. And it cannot change too much it loses the ability to say bind to the ACE-2 receptors.
We need to be careful of variants, but there is little prospect of a sudden emergence of a variant which completely evades the current vaccines.

I believe what is encouraging to those that track this is that they are seeing the same 2-3 mutations over and over again (the difference is getting the 2 or 3 together in one variant), so it is following a predictable pathway. Now that might change, it is certainly looks possible to have a decent idea what the mutations that any booster needs to tackle for the forthcoming autumn / winter.

The big problem with flu, and thus the jabs, is it is much more of a guess what is actually going to be like in 6 months.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pfizer and Moderna vaccines look like they will protect for a very long time against covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.html

The early reports that people who had previously recovered from SARS a decade ago had good immunity against covid bode well for the long-term effectiveness of vaccines.

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

turbotubbs said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

You do know that there are hundreds of variants don't you? Only a few have characteristics that make a material difference to its ability to make people ill. And it cannot change too much it loses the ability to say bind to the ACE-2 receptors.
We need to be careful of variants, but there is little prospect of a sudden emergence of a variant which completely evades the current vaccines.

Yes I do know. The variants of concern as they call them, which have basically been the SA one, Kent and now Delta, have each increased the infectivity of the virus and its propensity to spread. The evolutionary advantage of this is obvious and there is a recognised tendency for viruses to develop in this way, also becoming more benign because this keeps their host alive for longer allowing more opportunities for transmission. Going by the past pattern it seems inevitable that an even more infectious variant than delta will be along very shortly.

The evidence to date is that none of these variants defeat the vaccine but in countries like ours where the majority of potential hosts are vaccinated the ability to do so would be a huge evolutionary advantage and any such variant would become dominant very quickly. We need to stay alert to this but the priority is to protect as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

Andy_JS said:

"It is a tinder box about to explode,” a Labour activist campaigning in Batley & Spen tells The Times. For the second time in as many months, the party is battling a Tory challenge as it tries to hold on to its seat at a by-election.Many in Labour have written off their chances of holding the seat.

“The Muslim vote has collapsed,” one activist who has campaigned locally said. “In Spen, the way the pledges are coming back is similar to Hartlepool. Currently we’re losing it by about 6,000 to 7,000 and we could be propelled into third place.""

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/george-galloway-has-made-the-labour-leadership-a-key-issue-in-the-batley-spen-by-election-7db7zbz8v

Thought the first sentence was going to be about Labour's race baiting campaigning approach, but turns out it was an entirely solipsistic comment on their own electoral prospects.

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

You find it extraordinary that anybody could consider ethics in a way that isn't entirely selfish.

DavidL said:

turbotubbs said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

You do know that there are hundreds of variants don't you? Only a few have characteristics that make a material difference to its ability to make people ill. And it cannot change too much it loses the ability to say bind to the ACE-2 receptors.
We need to be careful of variants, but there is little prospect of a sudden emergence of a variant which completely evades the current vaccines.

Yes I do know. The variants of concern as they call them, which have basically been the SA one, Kent and now Delta, have each increased the infectivity of the virus and its propensity to spread. The evolutionary advantage of this is obvious and there is a recognised tendency for viruses to develop in this way, also becoming more benign because this keeps their host alive for longer allowing more opportunities for transmission. Going by the past pattern it seems inevitable that an even more infectious variant than delta will be along very shortly.

The evidence to date is that none of these variants defeat the vaccine but in countries like ours where the majority of potential hosts are vaccinated the ability to do so would be a huge evolutionary advantage and any such variant would become dominant very quickly. We need to stay alert to this but the priority is to protect as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

@ DavidL. Glad to see you back and hope you are doing well after your recent scare.

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination of children on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

Its a balance for the individual - how do you give the best health outcome. If the risk from the vaccine is less than the risk of harm from the disease, and in where cases are spreading rapidly in that cohort then yes I think it is justified.

What are your concerns about it?

kinabalu said:

An interesting header. So the big Johnson divide is educational not Brexit. The more book learning you have the more likely you are to see through him. I find this quite heartening because it means an anti-Johnson viewpoint is rather like a detached house with a patio and a basement wine collection - a sign of having arrived. As such, given the aspirational nature of the British people, it will be much sought after, and with it also being (unlike high end property and vintage merlot) attainable completely free of charge, simply requiring a quick and painless mental upgrade, the numbers are surely set to grow. I've just topped up on Starmer Next PM at 9.

I think it's nearly impossible that Starmer will be next PM. If Starmer is Labour leader at the next general election there are broadly three scenarios.

1. Something like the status quo where the Tory majority ends up about the same, or a bit bigger. Starmer resigns as Labour leader and does not become next PM.

2. Something a bit like 2015GE, where it looks close between Labour and the Tories, but the English swing behind the Tories to prevent the SNP propping up a Labour government. Starmer resigns as Labour leader and does not become next PM.

3. Something happens between now and GE to make a 1997 landslide possible, and Conservative defeat seem inevitable. Starmer prepares to enter Number Ten. The Tories ditch Johnson in their desperation and make Sunak PM. Starmer still has a chance of being the next-but-one PM.

There's simply no ideological commitment to Johnson within the PCP. It's only because they think he will help them win elections. As soon as that goes - so does Johnson - and so a Tory will be next PM.

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

The first vaccination rate in the UK is about 0.4% of adult population per day, with the number as of yesterday at 84% of adults. Wales strongly suggests that it will top out at about 89% of adults.

That means in about 12-14 days*, the first vaccinations will be over - in terms of people actually trying to get vaccinated.

The supply pipeline for vaccines is months long and you can't just get an extra delivery.

So no, he can't change anything at this point.

*Yes - that assumes it doesn't tail off.

Its' good but not good enough. It leaves several million people unvaccinated and even more with only partial protection. We need to find ways to incentivise those we have missed, go looking for them and persuade. There is a lot to do here and it is very important to our protection from not only delta but the next variant off the block (which must surely be overdue).

If we get take-up to 90% of the population, that is very good, by vaccination standards.

We are giving out the vaccine in just about every way that can be thought of, for free.

The simple truth is that there are a chunk of people who won't take it. The government has tried with the recalcitrant sections of the population and is still trying. But, ultimately, we live in a world where people feel entitled to their own truth.

From the anti-vax garbage I have seen, much of it is beyond reason.

I am certainly not wired into Bill Gates skynet after having my Moderna jabs...beep boop beep booppppppp.

I have already sent an angry e-mail to Microsoft - I didn't turn into the Incredible Hulk after mine. Which means, back to the gym. Sigh. Defective chip, I suppose.

After my second dose, I have had irresistible urges to smell lampposts and suspicious looking puddles on the pavement. I guess I got the tracking chip ...

williamglenn said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

263,267 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 118,366 1st doses / 97,993 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,869 / 12,418
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 944 / 8,766
NI 2,533 / 4,378

Sigh. Absolutely no question what should be top of Sajid's in-tray. Indeed, empty the bloody in-tray into the bin and put the rate of vaccination back in. Nothing that is in our power is more important economically, socially, healthwise. Nothing.

Disagreed.

The vaccination program is over. We're now chasing up refuseniks and waiting for second doses to become eligible, but everyone has been eligible to get vaccinated now and mass walk in vaccinations are available no appointment necessary nationwide.

If people aren't getting jabbed yet, its because they don't want to be. And if they don't want to be, we should under no circumstances be remaining restricted to protect them.

There should be one item in Sajid's in-tray and that's saying that we are now lifting all legal restrictions. If you haven't yet had it and wish not to be infected with Covid, go get your vaccine, but the restrictions are no longer there to prevent it spreading.

The next question is do we vaccinate kids over the summer holidays?

Are we vaccinating the young

A. to stop them spreading covid to granny who was double jabbed months ago

or

B. to make a pretty negligible threat to them even more negligible?

Firstly we are not vaccinating the young yet (with some medically approved exceptions). And I think both A and B apply. If we wish to get true heard immunity in the face of the very transmissible delta, then we may need to get as many of the 12-18 year olds done too. In the face of rising cases, and with a non-zero risk of harm from covid in that age group there is a clinical case for vaccinating for their protection, in addition to the benefits to the entire population.

Turbo mate the average person who passed away from covid was 82 with two or more co-morbidities.

Look at the stats. For U18 there is about 1 in 1000 chance of severe disease with Covid. For an individual its vanishingly small, but it means in a school of 1000 pupils who all get covid, one with be seriously ill with potential life changing consequences. Its not simple.

I find it extraordinary you are justifying mass vaccination on this basis. Utterly extraordinary.

You find it extraordinary that anybody could consider ethics in a way that isn't entirely selfish.

The selfishness has come entirely from the boomer generation, who have destroyed the education, mental health and life chances of young people to save themselves. At every single turn.