The Butler did it? – politicalbetting.com

borisatsun said:

Why did The Butler serve up the gay giraffes thing anyway?

Was it one of those "look it happens in nature so it's completely natural" things?

If so it's a ludcrously stupid position. I'm sure we can find racist and rapist animals to defend racists and rapists.

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).

Surrey Heath.

Edit - and East Surrey by a whisker.

51.6% for Surrey Heath (fifth place)
50.1% for East Surrey (11th place)

To put it in context, the Lib Dems managed over half the vote in eight seats:

Hazel Grove - 54.5%
North Cornwall - 53.2%
Newbury - 52.9%
Orkney & Shetland - 52.0%
Harrogate & Knaresborough - 51.5%
Sheffield, Hallam - 51.3%
North East Fife - 51.2%
North Devon - 50.8%

FrancisUrquhart said:

If any evidence was required that Wayne Rooney is a moron...

Drop Jack Grealish (and no Foden), start Marcus Rashford and go with three defensive midfielders to beat Germany

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drop-jack-grealish-start-marcus-rashford-and-go-with-three-defensive-midfielders-to-beat-germany-x3fq28fs0

ThomasNashe said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If any evidence was required that Wayne Rooney is a moron...

Drop Jack Grealish (and no Foden), start Marcus Rashford and go with three defensive midfielders to beat Germany

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drop-jack-grealish-start-marcus-rashford-and-go-with-three-defensive-midfielders-to-beat-germany-x3fq28fs0

Don't really get the love for Grealish - while ignoring the case for Jadon Sancho.

ydoethur said:

borisatsun said:

Why did The Butler serve up the gay giraffes thing anyway?

Was it one of those "look it happens in nature so it's completely natural" things?

If so it's a ludcrously stupid position. I'm sure we can find racist and rapist animals to defend racists and rapists.

Pheasants are notorious for the latter,

ThomasNashe said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If any evidence was required that Wayne Rooney is a moron...

Drop Jack Grealish (and no Foden), start Marcus Rashford and go with three defensive midfielders to beat Germany

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drop-jack-grealish-start-marcus-rashford-and-go-with-three-defensive-midfielders-to-beat-germany-x3fq28fs0

I can see the logic of playing Rashford, but I'd drop Kane to get him in.

I guess it depends if Gareth wants to go toe to toe with the Germans.

No way should Kane be dropped. The question is who is going to provide him with the service he needs.

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

@CovidJusticeUK
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.

Aren't the UK now something like 25th? In terms of Europe, depending on how you measure it, of the big nations, on excess deaths adjusted for population age, Germany is significantly lower, but most are now quite similar.

You can move around placings depend on whwre you set your excess deaths periods, if you adjust for previous years flu seasons etc, but on a log scale all the major European nations are within the same order of magnitude (except Germany) and many Eastern European countries worst effected.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Dept of Health gnomes already trying to gain upper hand with Javid and steer him to continued lockdown and restrictions?

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1409152220252327951

If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Dept of Health gnomes already trying to gain upper hand with Javid and steer him to continued lockdown and restrictions?

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1409152220252327951

If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.

Not really, if numbers in hospital are still nowhere and fully vaccinated is above 70% then it's not tenable to keep any measures. No one cares about cases if all it means is a few sniffles. The zero COVID wankers have realised this which is why they produced those models which forecast doom for hospitals.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Dept of Health gnomes already trying to gain upper hand with Javid and steer him to continued lockdown and restrictions?

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1409152220252327951

If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.

Not really, if numbers in hospital are still nowhere and fully vaccinated is above 70% then it's not tenable to keep any measures. No one cares about cases if all it means is a few sniffles. The zero COVID wankers have realised this which is why they produced those models which forecast doom for hospitals.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Dept of Health gnomes already trying to gain upper hand with Javid and steer him to continued lockdown and restrictions?

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1409152220252327951

If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.

isam said:

Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really

Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?

Fysics_Teacher said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.

Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.

The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.

So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.

Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’

I thought modern was anything after the Battle of Bosworth?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ping, it was a largely boring race, but many are interesting/exciting.

Mr. B, aye, Aston Martin like bitching about the rules too.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Following a PCR test administered on Friday 25 June at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton, The England and Wales Cricket Board can confirm that ICC Match Referee Phil Whitticase has tested positive for COVID-19. Whitticase, who was officiating during the three-match Vitality IT20 Series between England and Sri Lanka, is well and is asymptomatic.

He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.

Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.

No members of the two teams were impacted.

Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.

https://www.ecb.co.uk/news/2179623

Charles said:

isam said:

Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really

Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?

I’m not convinced that she will win. But she will certainly be talked up by her friends in the media do a decent trading bet* in my view.

* I don’t bet, so take my opinion for what it’s worth…

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Following a PCR test administered on Friday 25 June at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton, The England and Wales Cricket Board can confirm that ICC Match Referee Phil Whitticase has tested positive for COVID-19. Whitticase, who was officiating during the three-match Vitality IT20 Series between England and Sri Lanka, is well and is asymptomatic.

He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.

Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.

No members of the two teams were impacted.

Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.

https://www.ecb.co.uk/news/2179623

Are they not doing the bio-secure bubble this summer?

isam said:

Coman the Bavarian linked to Liverpool

https://twitter.com/plettigoal/status/1409130641732612099?s=21

ping said:

Just listened to the last half of the f1

God how boring. So so dull.

I don’t know how fans like @Morris_Dancer stay interested.

Northern_Al said:

isam said:

Coman the Bavarian linked to Liverpool

https://twitter.com/plettigoal/status/1409130641732612099?s=21

Well I thought that was quite witty, even if nobody else did. Arnie to Liverpool.

TheScreamingEagles said:

An 11-year-old primary school pupil was referred to the government’s controversial counter-radicalisation Prevent programme after a teacher mistook the word “alms” for “arms” during a classroom discussion.

The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.

When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.

The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.

Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/27/boy-11-referred-to-prevent-for-wanting-to-give-alms-to-the-oppressed

BigRich said:

I've spotted a bit of a anomaly on the COVID Dashboard, for vaccination in England

If You go to the England page you get:

37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.

If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.

But why the defence in the number vaccinated?

And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?

BigRich said:

I've spotted a bit of a anomaly on the COVID Dashboard, for vaccination in England

If You go to the England page you get:

37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.

If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.

But why the defence in the number vaccinated?

And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

darkage said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really

Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?

I’m not convinced that she will win. But she will certainly be talked up by her friends in the media do a decent trading bet* in my view.

* I don’t bet, so take my opinion for what it’s worth…

She has made it clear she wants the job and will definetely run. These odds are too long and will shorten.

Yanks ‘run.’

We are British. We stand.

I’m bicoastal - does that mean I jog?

Malmesbury said:

BigRich said:

I've spotted a bit of a anomaly on the COVID Dashboard, for vaccination in England

If You go to the England page you get:

37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.

If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.

But why the defence in the number vaccinated?

And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?

The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.

ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".

NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.

You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.

BigRich said:

ManchesterKurt said:

BigRich said:

I've spotted a bit of a anomaly on the COVID Dashboard, for vaccination in England

If You go to the England page you get:

37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.

If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.

But why the defence in the number vaccinated?

And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?

Get on BBC Sounds and find the More or Less podcast, those exact questions were answered a couple of weeks ago in great depth.

Cant do BBC, don't have a licence.

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An 11-year-old primary school pupil was referred to the government’s controversial counter-radicalisation Prevent programme after a teacher mistook the word “alms” for “arms” during a classroom discussion.

The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.

When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.

The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.

Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/27/boy-11-referred-to-prevent-for-wanting-to-give-alms-to-the-oppressed

There is a ongoing campaign against Prevent - which is interesting, since it actually does work, and has done some extremely good stuff in steering people away from falling off the various cliff of violent insanity. IIRC a large number of the referrals have been for fascist type extremism.

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Malmesbury said:

BigRich said:

I've spotted a bit of a anomaly on the COVID Dashboard, for vaccination in England

If You go to the England page you get:

37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.

If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.

But why the defence in the number vaccinated?

And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?

The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.

ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".

NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.

You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.

There's simply no way that NIMS is more accurate, as BigRich points out ONS has accurate survey data showing 44m in 2019 but NIMS says 2021 is 49m. That's a huge difference and 2020 will have been a year of net population contraction. The ONS number should be used IMO until the census data is available. NIMS uses extrapolation based on registrations but takes no account of people who move, people who live in two places, people who have left the country and simply there's no way that since 2019 there are an additional 5m adults in England. Neither figure is correct, however, the ONS number is probably much closer to the reality on the ground than NIMS which will always be an overestimate.

Things like the applications for settled status for EU citizens suggest that the population estimates we have been working with previously had gaps.

The reality is that we don't know if 2020 was a net contraction of the population or not - mass immigration has been running, quite steadily, for years. We don't know how many EU citizens returned, stayed or left and came back.

EDIT: further, using ONS 2019, we got things like 118% of 85+ people vaccinated in some areas. Using NIMS, you get quite alot of near 100%, but the silly stuff disappears.

NickPalmer said:

Spent a few hours phone canvassing in Batley and Spen this weekend, finding a lot of people answering this time (unlike last, when the footie was on). I was being steered by the system to the don't knows/won't says/undecideds/ who tend to be a tough gig. Some notes:

* Kim Leadbeater has a genuine personal following. Nobody mentioned her being the sister of Jo Cox, but I I got nearly a dozen voters saying they knew her, knew her family, etc. One said he usually voted Tory but was probably going for her, as she'd "really represent the area", and an ex-Kipper was giving her a personal vote. But the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson is respected too and I encountered people weighing up personal preference.

* Interest in Galloway remains undetectable to my eyes (and I've been doing this stuff for 50 years), and people who mentioned him did it with contempt. One voter with a Pakistani name said, "He is an imposter, he is no more interested in Muslims than I am the Pope." He's definitely not going to win, or outpoll Labour, and I'm scaling back my guesstimate from 9% to 6%. I did get one voter who was switching from Labour to "Green Socialist".

* There's a LOT of interest. Nobody told me not to bother them, mind my own business, etc. Don't knows still exist but mostly in the sense of genuinely wavering, not non-voters in disguise. Quite a few wanted to discuss it, which is unusual in my phone canvassing experience.

* Nobody mentioned Hancock etc., though one said "Some of these blokes who were on TV this week for the Government maybe need taking down a peg or two."

* Some of the media reports from journalists visiting from London suggest that Batley is a grim area full of bigoted WWC and radical Muslims. That's not my impression at all. Going by the people I talked to, it sounds a nice place.

Overall - all anecdotal, too varied to say. But my impression is that Labour is narrowing the gap a bit - probably not quite enough, though. If we do win it'll be much more to do with Kim than the national scene.

ydoethur said:

Floater said:

Anyone shocked?

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1409048133909331973

Member of George Galloway's campaign team exposed as Holocaust denier.

Definitely.

Shocked that it is only one.