Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?
Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.
Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.
These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.
New Forest West South Staffs Kensington & Chelsea Ruislip - Northwood Chesham & Amersham Sutton Coldfield Wokingham
I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?
Very impressive!
52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place) 50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place) 50.1% for Wokingham (12th place) 50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)
That leaves four:
West Sussex (x2) Surrey (x2)
Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?
Esher and Walton?
Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).
Surrey Heath.
Edit - and East Surrey by a whisker.
51.6% for Surrey Heath (fifth place) 50.1% for East Surrey (11th place)
To put it in context, the Lib Dems managed over half the vote in eight seats:
Hazel Grove - 54.5% North Cornwall - 53.2% Newbury - 52.9% Orkney & Shetland - 52.0% Harrogate & Knaresborough - 51.5% Sheffield, Hallam - 51.3% North East Fife - 51.2% North Devon - 50.8%
Of which, ironically, they now hold just two, and one by a narrow margin after a four year hiatus.
I think it's a bit simplistic to talk of animals as possessing human sexual orientations, but, according to the reference work I have on the subject:
"Homosexual activity is common in Giraffes and in many cases is actually more frequent than heterosexual behaviour... in one study area, mountings between males accounted for 94 percent of all observed sexual activity... at any given time, about 5 percent of all males are participating in necking."
Page 392, Biological Exuberance. Animal homosexuality and natural diversity. Bruce Bagemihl (1999)
If you did want to simplify, then I think it would be fair enough to say that Giraffes are very gay.
Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?
Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.
Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.
These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.
New Forest West South Staffs Kensington & Chelsea Ruislip - Northwood Chesham & Amersham Sutton Coldfield Wokingham
I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?
Very impressive!
52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place) 50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place) 50.1% for Wokingham (12th place) 50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)
That leaves four:
West Sussex (x2) Surrey (x2)
Horsum?
I assume that's supposed to be Horsham (50.8%, seventh place).
Yes (in dyslexic Horsham is spelt Horsum)
And very pleased with myself for getting it correct.
Don't really get the love for Grealish - while ignoring the case for Jadon Sancho.
Grealish is the one player who looks like he can create. You have to have him or Foden in. Sancho has never really done it for England, but he hasn't been given any real chance recently, despite doing it consistently in Germany. Not to even have him as an impact sub is criminal.
Unless they can find something extraordinary, it appears to be season over for Mercedes as far as the championship is concerned. Red Bull look as though they can run a low drag rear wing and still have more downforce than Mercedes. Given the limitations on development, there’s probably no way back from that.
I can see the logic of playing Rashford, but I'd drop Kane to get him in.
I guess it depends if Gareth wants to go toe to toe with the Germans.
No way should Kane be dropped. The question is who is going to provide him with the service he needs.
Or play Kane a bit deeper and have a Kane/Son partnership with Kane/Sancho. The Kane/Son partnership was the difference between Spurs finishing 7th and being in the bottom half of the table and the rest of the England team is probably worse than the Spurs first team.
@CovidJusticeUK But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.
Aren't the UK now something like 25th? In terms of Europe, depending on how you measure it, of the big nations, on excess deaths adjusted for population age, Germany is significantly lower, but most are now quite similar.
You can move around placings depend on whwre you set your excess deaths periods, if you adjust for previous years flu seasons etc, but on a log scale all the major European nations are within the same order of magnitude (except Germany) and many Eastern European countries worst effected.
This count of excess death makes us about 25th, though it hasn't been updated since 11/5, since when we've had no excess deaths (I think our death rate is now below average), while others certainly have.
If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.
Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky · 59m Replying to @MrHarryCole It’s almost like officials “reissued” his words because they didn’t like the version that came out of his mouth
One season, I forget which, was very tight for the first half but a tyre rule change meant Red Bull/Mercedes (whichever was dominant at the time) cruised to boring victory in the latter half.
I do agree that Verstappen/Red Bull are favourites, though.
If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.
Not really, if numbers in hospital are still nowhere and fully vaccinated is above 70% then it's not tenable to keep any measures. No one cares about cases if all it means is a few sniffles. The zero COVID wankers have realised this which is why they produced those models which forecast doom for hospitals.
"Infuriating train announcements will terminate here Shapps promises to give railway passengers some peace by introducing curbs on tannoy messages" (£)
If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.
Not really, if numbers in hospital are still nowhere and fully vaccinated is above 70% then it's not tenable to keep any measures. No one cares about cases if all it means is a few sniffles. The zero COVID wankers have realised this which is why they produced those models which forecast doom for hospitals.
You watch them shift the goalposts and say high cases, we need another month to make sure all 2nd doses done and the required waiting period.
One of the best cartoons of recent months if that one with Boris in goal and the scientists shifting the goal behind him.
Javid vs the SAGE modelling/Dept Health pandemic machine?
Time will tell. The models have acquired a bad reputation, but the broader scientific community appears anything but united on the desirability of keeping restrictions beyond next month. Besides, AIUI Javid himself isn't a particular enthusiast for lockdowns.
In short, I won't believe that rules are being binned until they are binned, but I continue to maintain that there is cause for cautious optimism.
If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.
Not really, if numbers in hospital are still nowhere and fully vaccinated is above 70% then it's not tenable to keep any measures. No one cares about cases if all it means is a few sniffles. The zero COVID wankers have realised this which is why they produced those models which forecast doom for hospitals.
I’m sure the people producing the current “graphs to infinity” can show some examples from current and recent hotspots of such never ending rises have occurred...
As opposed to a small number of hotspots peaking whilst passing on the virus to a larger number of surrounding hotspots, which at some point will reach a limit on the second or third derivative
If things continue on, raw case numbers in the run up to Freedom Day (Harder) are going to be very high. Very easy for the zero covidians to push the obvious narrative.
They will struggle unless the hospital numbers keep getting worse - and both admissions and patient totals are showing signs of levelling off.
If we fast forward a couple of weeks and the case number and patient total lines on the graph have hugely diverged, then I'm hopeful we may finally get to the final step of the roadmap.
Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?
Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.
Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.
These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.
New Forest West South Staffs Kensington & Chelsea Ruislip - Northwood Chesham & Amersham Sutton Coldfield Wokingham
I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?
Very impressive!
52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place) 50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place) 50.1% for Wokingham (12th place) 50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)
That leaves four:
West Sussex (x2) Surrey (x2)
Horsum?
I assume that's supposed to be Horsham (50.8%, seventh place).
The Tory vote in Horsham at the last GE was 56.8%, not much of an increase compared to 1997.
One season, I forget which, was very tight for the first half but a tyre rule change meant Red Bull/Mercedes (whichever was dominant at the time) cruised to boring victory in the latter half.
I do agree that Verstappen/Red Bull are favourites, though.
I seriously doubt it. The rule changes have hit the low rake cars much harder, and you don’t get to re-engineer your basic design concept during the season even if the budget cap weren’t there. Development restrictions make that literally impossible.* There is no obvious way back for them. If the odds were more generous, I’d it a large sum on Verstappen after today. And absent rain or mechanical failure, he’ll win again here next weekend.
* And they are not even going to try. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has already said they will not switch the focus of their development back to this year.
They are already looking ahead to next year. All the focus has shifted to there. They are not bringing huge developments to this year's car.
What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.
The what if that has been in my mind for years.
Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?
John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.
And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.
Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.
I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.
Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.
The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.
So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.
Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’
I thought modern was anything after the Battle of Bosworth?
"A woman confronted the staff at the Wi Spa in Los Angeles after a man walked into the women's section with his genitals hanging out in front of girls. He identified as a "woman." The employees said he had a right to do that. The employees say that it's the law."
"Infuriating train announcements will terminate here Shapps promises to give railway passengers some peace by introducing curbs on tannoy messages" (£)
Quite the most annoying things are the all-too-frequent rubbish excuses for delays and cancellations, given by the automated voice, ending in "we are sorry for the inconvenience caused." The computer obviously isn't sorry, and neither are the dipsticks that programmed it, otherwise the lousy service would improve in quality.
Following a PCR test administered on Friday 25 June at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton, The England and Wales Cricket Board can confirm that ICC Match Referee Phil Whitticase has tested positive for COVID-19. Whitticase, who was officiating during the three-match Vitality IT20 Series between England and Sri Lanka, is well and is asymptomatic.
He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.
Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.
No members of the two teams were impacted.
Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.
Mr. Ping, it was a largely boring race, but many are interesting/exciting.
Mr. B, aye, Aston Martin like bitching about the rules too.
Just telling it as it is. The change was (rightly) designed to level the playing field, but the effect has gone slightly beyond that. I was looking forward to a tight battle this season, but I think it’s done.
Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really
Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?
I’m not convinced that she will win. But she will certainly be talked up by her friends in the media do a decent trading bet* in my view.
* I don’t bet, so take my opinion for what it’s worth…
As i placed the bet I was working out how much I will win! Old habits die hard (is that what the Die Hard films are about? Nuns uniforms stiffening before being chucked away?)
She probably wont win, but I think 50/1 is way over what she should be. A 2% chance? No way
@CovidJusticeUK But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.
Its actually a mid table death total and likely to drop a few places as Delta spreads.
That's not to say the government didn't make numerous mistakes, some repeatedly.
That group are bad faith actors. A corbyn front group. And have a nasty streak e.g. they tried to smear Boris taking a private moment at the wall of remembrance as him trying to do some fake PR stunt...when it emerged he did genuinely go there quietly on his own (plus minimal security) at night and the only reason anybody found out is a member of the public took a blurry photo as they were passing.
They’re the ones that claimed that the government excuse they couldn’t meet fir legal reasons was spurious… they had only written a pre-action letter not sued the government
Following a PCR test administered on Friday 25 June at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton, The England and Wales Cricket Board can confirm that ICC Match Referee Phil Whitticase has tested positive for COVID-19. Whitticase, who was officiating during the three-match Vitality IT20 Series between England and Sri Lanka, is well and is asymptomatic.
He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.
Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.
No members of the two teams were impacted.
Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.
Following a PCR test administered on Friday 25 June at the Ageas Bowl, Southampton, The England and Wales Cricket Board can confirm that ICC Match Referee Phil Whitticase has tested positive for COVID-19. Whitticase, who was officiating during the three-match Vitality IT20 Series between England and Sri Lanka, is well and is asymptomatic.
He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.
Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.
No members of the two teams were impacted.
Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.
On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.
The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.
Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.
If the economy goes south, we could see it work.
Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.
I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.
I don't think a message of same old same old will do.
I don’t think you could actually win a majority for proper socialism. That’s predicated on a number of Victorian assumptions that urned out to be wrong, and is why Corbyn kept pretending he wasn’t a socialist. Just as nobody takes Communism seriously now (unless they’re a bit dim) because it’s self-evidently bullshit.*
What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.
The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.
Fine Brezhnev joke:
Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”
*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.
It is the drawback with the current statist chumocracy too.
Well, yes, but that’s greed and stupidity rather than ideology.
'People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the publick, or in some contrivance to raise prices'. One duty of politicians is to ensure open free markets, regulated to protect the public and to prevent rent seeking, fraud, price fixing etc. That could be formulated into a good pitch to the electors if only we had Liberal party.
An 11-year-old primary school pupil was referred to the government’s controversial counter-radicalisation Prevent programme after a teacher mistook the word “alms” for “arms” during a classroom discussion.
The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.
When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.
The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.
Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.
Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really
Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?
I’m not convinced that she will win. But she will certainly be talked up by her friends in the media do a decent trading bet* in my view.
* I don’t bet, so take my opinion for what it’s worth…
As i placed the bet I was working out how much I will win! Old habits die hard (is that what the Die Hard films are about? Nuns uniforms stiffening before being chucked away?)
She probably wont win, but I think 50/1 is way over what she should be. A 2% chance? No way
An 11-year-old primary school pupil was referred to the government’s controversial counter-radicalisation Prevent programme after a teacher mistook the word “alms” for “arms” during a classroom discussion.
The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.
When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.
The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.
Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.
There is a ongoing campaign against Prevent - which is interesting, since it actually does work, and has done some extremely good stuff in steering people away from falling off the various cliff of violent insanity. IIRC a large number of the referrals have been for fascist type extremism.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
I'm sat in the queue at Alderley Park* waiting for my second jab. Clearly far more first jabs than second now. But though I have no way of knowing what 'normal' looks like, this doesn't look like any slowdown in demand or pace.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
Get on BBC Sounds and find the More or Less podcast, those exact questions were answered a couple of weeks ago in great depth.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
Get on BBC Sounds and find the More or Less podcast, those exact questions were answered a couple of weeks ago in great depth.
Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?
Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.
Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.
These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.
New Forest West South Staffs Kensington & Chelsea Ruislip - Northwood Chesham & Amersham Sutton Coldfield Wokingham
I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?
Very impressive!
52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place) 50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place) 50.1% for Wokingham (12th place) 50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)
That leaves four:
West Sussex (x2) Surrey (x2)
Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?
Esher and Walton?
Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).
Arundel is one of those seats which should be turning anti Tory if the 'educated people don't vote Tory' thesis is correct more than highly selectively. Don't hold your breath.
This educated person(you can argue as to the extent) will be voting Tory again after a trip to the dark side with the LDs. Keep Labour out will become the overriding reason to vote.
The EU is appalling and worse to.us now we are out. They can go to hell.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
There's simply no way that NIMS is more accurate, as BigRich points out ONS has accurate survey data showing 44m in 2019 but NIMS says 2021 is 49m. That's a huge difference and 2020 will have been a year of net population contraction. The ONS number should be used IMO until the census data is available. NIMS uses extrapolation based on registrations but takes no account of people who move, people who live in two places, people who have left the country and simply there's no way that since 2019 there are an additional 5m adults in England. Neither figure is correct, however, the ONS number is probably much closer to the reality on the ground than NIMS which will always be an overestimate.
Dawn is my local MP and is not a bright spark. On Peston's show a while back, she kept going on about the Essex variant. Everyone was baffled. Then the penny dropped, she had mixed up Essex and Kent. She makes Wrong Daily look good!
Spent a few hours phone canvassing in Batley and Spen this weekend, finding a lot of people answering this time (unlike last, when the footie was on). I was being steered by the system to the don't knows/won't says/undecideds/ who tend to be a tough gig. Some notes:
* Kim Leadbeater has a genuine personal following. Nobody mentioned her being the sister of Jo Cox, but I I got nearly a dozen voters saying they knew her, knew her family, etc. One said he usually voted Tory but was probably going for her, as she'd "really represent the area", and an ex-Kipper was giving her a personal vote. But the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson is respected too and I encountered people weighing up personal preference.
* Interest in Galloway remains undetectable to my eyes (and I've been doing this stuff for 50 years), and people who mentioned him did it with contempt. One voter with a Pakistani name said, "He is an imposter, he is no more interested in Muslims than I am the Pope." He's definitely not going to win, or outpoll Labour, and I'm scaling back my guesstimate from 9% to 6%. I did get one voter who was switching from Labour to "Green Socialist".
* There's a LOT of interest. Nobody told me not to bother them, mind my own business, etc. Don't knows still exist but mostly in the sense of genuinely wavering, not non-voters in disguise. Quite a few wanted to discuss it, which is unusual in my phone canvassing experience.
* Nobody mentioned Hancock etc., though one said "Some of these blokes who were on TV this week for the Government maybe need taking down a peg or two."
* Some of the media reports from journalists visiting from London suggest that Batley is a grim area full of bigoted WWC and radical Muslims. That's not my impression at all. Going by the people I talked to, it sounds a nice place.
Overall - all anecdotal, too varied to say. But my impression is that Labour is narrowing the gap a bit - probably not quite enough, though. If we do win it'll be much more to do with Kim than the national scene.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
Get on BBC Sounds and find the More or Less podcast, those exact questions were answered a couple of weeks ago in great depth.
Cant do BBC, don't have a licence.
You don't need a TV licence to use BBC Sounds. Only need it for iPlayer.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
There's simply no way that NIMS is more accurate, as BigRich points out ONS has accurate survey data showing 44m in 2019 but NIMS says 2021 is 49m. That's a huge difference and 2020 will have been a year of net population contraction. The ONS number should be used IMO until the census data is available. NIMS uses extrapolation based on registrations but takes no account of people who move, people who live in two places, people who have left the country and simply there's no way that since 2019 there are an additional 5m adults in England. Neither figure is correct, however, the ONS number is probably much closer to the reality on the ground than NIMS which will always be an overestimate.
Things like the applications for settled status for EU citizens suggest that the population estimates we have been working with previously had gaps.
The reality is that we don't know if 2020 was a net contraction of the population or not - mass immigration has been running, quite steadily, for years. We don't know how many EU citizens returned, stayed or left and came back.
EDIT: further, using ONS 2019, we got things like 118% of 85+ people vaccinated in some areas. Using NIMS, you get quite alot of near 100%, but the silly stuff disappears.
Wait, what the WWF/WWE is faked and not real wrestling, well colour me shocked.
Donald Trump’s “big lie” that he lost the 2020 US election because of voter fraud is “a bit like WWF”, Mitt Romney said on Sunday, referring to the gaudy and artificial world of professional wrestling, an arena in which Trump starred before entering politics.
“It’s entertaining,” said the Utah senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee. “But it’s not real.”
Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, Romney was asked about former attorney general William Barr’s assertion to the Atlantic on Sunday that Trump’s claims were always “bullshit”.
Barr said as much publicly in December – a month after Joe Biden’s win. He told the Atlantic the then Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, had wanted him to say so in November.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
There's simply no way that NIMS is more accurate, as BigRich points out ONS has accurate survey data showing 44m in 2019 but NIMS says 2021 is 49m. That's a huge difference and 2020 will have been a year of net population contraction. The ONS number should be used IMO until the census data is available. NIMS uses extrapolation based on registrations but takes no account of people who move, people who live in two places, people who have left the country and simply there's no way that since 2019 there are an additional 5m adults in England. Neither figure is correct, however, the ONS number is probably much closer to the reality on the ground than NIMS which will always be an overestimate.
Things like the applications for settled status for EU citizens suggest that the population estimates we have been working with previously had gaps.
The reality is that we don't know if 2020 was a net contraction of the population or not - mass immigration has been running, quite steadily, for years. We don't know how many EU citizens returned, stayed or left and came back.
No we don't, but even that was just 2m for the whole of the UK, not 5m additional for England. NIMS comes with that health warning of being knowingly wrong. They prefer the overestimate so that health services can be provisioned with a bit of fat.
An 11-year-old primary school pupil was referred to the government’s controversial counter-radicalisation Prevent programme after a teacher mistook the word “alms” for “arms” during a classroom discussion.
The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.
When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.
The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.
Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.
There is a ongoing campaign against Prevent - which is interesting, since it actually does work, and has done some extremely good stuff in steering people away from falling off the various cliff of violent insanity. IIRC a large number of the referrals have been for fascist type extremism.
You may well be right. Doesn't make this teacher any less of a totally irresponsible moron, mind.
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
The regional and national data in various things often have different delays in reporting, so you seen different numbers when you add them back up.
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
There's simply no way that NIMS is more accurate, as BigRich points out ONS has accurate survey data showing 44m in 2019 but NIMS says 2021 is 49m. That's a huge difference and 2020 will have been a year of net population contraction. The ONS number should be used IMO until the census data is available. NIMS uses extrapolation based on registrations but takes no account of people who move, people who live in two places, people who have left the country and simply there's no way that since 2019 there are an additional 5m adults in England. Neither figure is correct, however, the ONS number is probably much closer to the reality on the ground than NIMS which will always be an overestimate.
Things like the applications for settled status for EU citizens suggest that the population estimates we have been working with previously had gaps.
The reality is that we don't know if 2020 was a net contraction of the population or not - mass immigration has been running, quite steadily, for years. We don't know how many EU citizens returned, stayed or left and came back.
EDIT: further, using ONS 2019, we got things like 118% of 85+ people vaccinated in some areas. Using NIMS, you get quite alot of near 100%, but the silly stuff disappears.
For 2011, the census estimate was very close to that of the mid-year estimate. Sounds like that won’t be the case for 2021.
@CovidJusticeUK But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.
One of the worst tolls is the wrong critical path to go down. By that measure (on current figures at any rate, since we know some places are better than others) the UK would be only just above Italy and France, and only a few above Germany, who would also have one of the worst tolls in the world, and I suspect when they make the argument they are they wouldn't want to suggest Germany's response was only marginally worse.
Spent a few hours phone canvassing in Batley and Spen this weekend, finding a lot of people answering this time (unlike last, when the footie was on). I was being steered by the system to the don't knows/won't says/undecideds/ who tend to be a tough gig. Some notes:
* Kim Leadbeater has a genuine personal following. Nobody mentioned her being the sister of Jo Cox, but I I got nearly a dozen voters saying they knew her, knew her family, etc. One said he usually voted Tory but was probably going for her, as she'd "really represent the area", and an ex-Kipper was giving her a personal vote. But the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson is respected too and I encountered people weighing up personal preference.
* Interest in Galloway remains undetectable to my eyes (and I've been doing this stuff for 50 years), and people who mentioned him did it with contempt. One voter with a Pakistani name said, "He is an imposter, he is no more interested in Muslims than I am the Pope." He's definitely not going to win, or outpoll Labour, and I'm scaling back my guesstimate from 9% to 6%. I did get one voter who was switching from Labour to "Green Socialist".
* There's a LOT of interest. Nobody told me not to bother them, mind my own business, etc. Don't knows still exist but mostly in the sense of genuinely wavering, not non-voters in disguise. Quite a few wanted to discuss it, which is unusual in my phone canvassing experience.
* Nobody mentioned Hancock etc., though one said "Some of these blokes who were on TV this week for the Government maybe need taking down a peg or two."
* Some of the media reports from journalists visiting from London suggest that Batley is a grim area full of bigoted WWC and radical Muslims. That's not my impression at all. Going by the people I talked to, it sounds a nice place.
Overall - all anecdotal, too varied to say. But my impression is that Labour is narrowing the gap a bit - probably not quite enough, though. If we do win it'll be much more to do with Kim than the national scene.
Interesting stuff, Nick. Hope you're right about Galloway. I don't really care whether Lab or Con wins, so long as he gets minced.
@CovidJusticeUK But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.
One of the worst tolls is the wrong critical path to go down. By that measure (on current figures at any rate, since we know some places are better than others) the UK would be only just above Italy and France, and only a few above Germany, who would also have one of the worst tolls in the world, and I suspect when they make the argument they are they wouldn't want to suggest Germany's response was only marginally worse.
They don't care about accuracy.
All they supposedly wanted was a public inquiry. There is going to be one, but they are still attacking the government.
Comments
Drop Jack Grealish (and no Foden), start Marcus Rashford and go with three defensive midfielders to beat Germany
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drop-jack-grealish-start-marcus-rashford-and-go-with-three-defensive-midfielders-to-beat-germany-x3fq28fs0
https://twitter.com/plettigoal/status/1409130641732612099?s=21
Don't ask me how I know...
I guess it depends if Gareth wants to go toe to toe with the Germans.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-57628723
And very pleased with myself for getting it correct.
F1: Quite surprised that the French Grand Prix was more exciting than the Styrian race, but there we are.
Red Bull look as though they can run a low drag rear wing and still have more downforce than Mercedes. Given the limitations on development, there’s probably no way back from that.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1409152220252327951
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
I think we'll end up having done pretty average, both in Europe and around the world.
@SamCoatesSky
·
59m
Replying to
@MrHarryCole
It’s almost like officials “reissued” his words because they didn’t like the version that came out of his mouth
Javid vs the SAGE modelling/Dept Health pandemic machine?
One season, I forget which, was very tight for the first half but a tyre rule change meant Red Bull/Mercedes (whichever was dominant at the time) cruised to boring victory in the latter half.
I do agree that Verstappen/Red Bull are favourites, though.
"Infuriating train announcements will terminate here
Shapps promises to give railway passengers some peace by introducing curbs on tannoy messages" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/infuriating-train-announcements-will-terminate-here-9qqnl0tk3
One of the best cartoons of recent months if that one with Boris in goal and the scientists shifting the goal behind him.
In short, I won't believe that rules are being binned until they are binned, but I continue to maintain that there is cause for cautious optimism.
As opposed to a small number of hotspots peaking whilst passing on the virus to a larger number of surrounding hotspots, which at some point will reach a limit on the second or third derivative
God how boring. So so dull.
I don’t know how fans like @Morris_Dancer stay interested.
If we fast forward a couple of weeks and the case number and patient total lines on the graph have hugely diverged, then I'm hopeful we may finally get to the final step of the roadmap.
* I don’t bet, so take my opinion for what it’s worth…
There is no obvious way back for them. If the odds were more generous, I’d
it a large sum on Verstappen after today. And absent rain or mechanical failure, he’ll win again here next weekend.
* And they are not even going to try.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has already said they will not switch the focus of their development back to this year.
They are already looking ahead to next year. All the focus has shifted to there. They are not bringing huge developments to this year's car.
Mr. B, aye, Aston Martin like bitching about the rules too.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/06/styria-post-race-analysis-2021.html
He will now observe a period of 10-days of self-isolation from 25 June, in accordance with the UK Government’s protocol on quarantine.
Seven other members from the match officials and anti-corruption unit teams were deemed close contacts, including five members due to officiate at the first Royal London ODI on Tuesday, 29 June at Emirates Riverside, Durham. Those impacted will have to self-isolate for 10-days until 7 July.
No members of the two teams were impacted.
Alternative arrangements will be put in place to ensure Tuesday’s ODI goes ahead as planned.
https://www.ecb.co.uk/news/2179623
The change was (rightly) designed to level the playing field, but the effect has gone slightly beyond that.
I was looking forward to a tight battle this season, but I think it’s done.
She probably wont win, but I think 50/1 is way over what she should be. A 2% chance? No way
Case rate in Edinburgh: 403.7 per 100k
Case rate in Manchester: 416.9 per 100k
(details correct for the seven days to 22 June)
We are British. We stand.
Apparently being locked up in the bio secure bubble is bad for the mental health of those involved.
So they've modified it a bit.
The boy’s teacher asked what pupils would do if they found themselves in possession of a lot of money. According to a legal challenge against the school lodged by the boy’s parents, he said he would “give alms to the oppressed”. The teacher interpreted this as “give arms to the oppressed” and made the Prevent referral.
When police received the referral they said there was no substance to it, no sign of radicalisation, extremist views or any threat to national security and closed the case.
The boy’s parents are taking legal action against the school, accusing it of applying a stereotype about his racial and religious background. It calls for a written apology from the school, the payment of damages and the expunging of the Prevent referral from the boy’s record.
Attiq Malik of Liberty Law Solicitors, representing the boy’s family, called for the Prevent programme to be scrapped and said it simply wasn’t working.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/27/boy-11-referred-to-prevent-for-wanting-to-give-alms-to-the-oppressed
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1409048133909331973
Member of George Galloway's campaign team exposed as Holocaust denier.
Clear Mercedes just don’t have an answer..
Shocked that it is only one.
If You go to the England page you get:
37,157,528 people had one jab, and that's 83.9% which implies 44,287,876 people over 18 in total.
If you go from England to the regens page and scroll to the bottom then it gives the number for England in total but they are different:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England
36,873,016 people had one jab, and that's 74.2% which implies, 49,694,092 People over 18 in total.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London
Reading the bumph, the numbers at the bottom are from the NIMS (National Immunity Monitoring system (NIMS) and the numbers of the England page are form ONS and are for mid 2019, So I get there waa going to be a difference, but shocked at how big.
But why the defence in the number vaccinated?
And why are they using mid 2019 ONS estimates, don't we thing a lot of EU citizens have left since then?
* home of AZ - hooray for Cheshire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM_A4Skusro
Grate film, great line,
ONS 2019 is the last, most recent population survey. NIMS is derived from that, using estimates and data from "on the ground".
NIMS vs ONS 2019 is an argument that has being going on here for a long time. I personally reckon that NIMS is better - if nothing else, they are continuously improving those numbers as more information comes in.
You can see that in the England vaccination releases, each week - the NIMS population numbers change week to week.
The EU is appalling and worse to.us now we are out. They can go to hell.
* Kim Leadbeater has a genuine personal following. Nobody mentioned her being the sister of Jo Cox, but I I got nearly a dozen voters saying they knew her, knew her family, etc. One said he usually voted Tory but was probably going for her, as she'd "really represent the area", and an ex-Kipper was giving her a personal vote. But the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson is respected too and I encountered people weighing up personal preference.
* Interest in Galloway remains undetectable to my eyes (and I've been doing this stuff for 50 years), and people who mentioned him did it with contempt. One voter with a Pakistani name said, "He is an imposter, he is no more interested in Muslims than I am the Pope." He's definitely not going to win, or outpoll Labour, and I'm scaling back my guesstimate from 9% to 6%. I did get one voter who was switching from Labour to "Green Socialist".
* There's a LOT of interest. Nobody told me not to bother them, mind my own business, etc. Don't knows still exist but mostly in the sense of genuinely wavering, not non-voters in disguise. Quite a few wanted to discuss it, which is unusual in my phone canvassing experience.
* Nobody mentioned Hancock etc., though one said "Some of these blokes who were on TV this week for the Government maybe need taking down a peg or two."
* Some of the media reports from journalists visiting from London suggest that Batley is a grim area full of bigoted WWC and radical Muslims. That's not my impression at all. Going by the people I talked to, it sounds a nice place.
Overall - all anecdotal, too varied to say. But my impression is that Labour is narrowing the gap a bit - probably not quite enough, though. If we do win it'll be much more to do with Kim than the national scene.
“I hate you Butler!”
The reality is that we don't know if 2020 was a net contraction of the population or not - mass immigration has been running, quite steadily, for years. We don't know how many EU citizens returned, stayed or left and came back.
EDIT: further, using ONS 2019, we got things like 118% of 85+ people vaccinated in some areas. Using NIMS, you get quite alot of near 100%, but the silly stuff disappears.
Donald Trump’s “big lie” that he lost the 2020 US election because of voter fraud is “a bit like WWF”, Mitt Romney said on Sunday, referring to the gaudy and artificial world of professional wrestling, an arena in which Trump starred before entering politics.
“It’s entertaining,” said the Utah senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee. “But it’s not real.”
Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, Romney was asked about former attorney general William Barr’s assertion to the Atlantic on Sunday that Trump’s claims were always “bullshit”.
Barr said as much publicly in December – a month after Joe Biden’s win. He told the Atlantic the then Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, had wanted him to say so in November.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/27/mitt-romney-donald-trump-big-lie-2020-election
Doesn't make this teacher any less of a totally irresponsible moron, mind.
All they supposedly wanted was a public inquiry. There is going to be one, but they are still attacking the government.
Does anyone agree?