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The Butler did it? – politicalbetting.com

The Sunday Telegraph are reporting that
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The Sunday Telegraph are reporting that
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The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.
A challenge this year risks sealing a duff leader in place till the next GE. Like last time.
Even though he’s not a Labour MP?
As for Butler, the only way Labour could pick someone worse would be if they went for Susan Michie.
The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.
Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.
Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?
And not one of the better pound shops either.
If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.
Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.
But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.
And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.
Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.
Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.
Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.
Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really
Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?
I also think Portillo's youthful indiscretions at Cambridge would have come out before the general election which would have damaged Portillo a lot.
We really did live in different times then.
But he might have lost it in 2001.
Not one that is more attractive to voters in general but perhaps its more attractive to Labour activists.
So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.
Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’
For one thing it would require the government to admit it had failed on border control.
https://t.co/4bHyEIULgE
It was scant reward for Sinclair who lost in 1950 by just 269 votes. He had served throughout the wartime Coalition as Secretary of State for Air.
I've heard it said Churchill refused to allow the Conservatives to kill off the much weakened Liberals in the early 1950s because of the residual affection he had for both his former party and for Sinclair.
Perhaps one day a Liberal Democrat leader will be able to return the favour....
On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders. Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.
Had Davies accepted, the Liberals would have more or less ceased to exist by 1955.
Which would have been politically helpful for the Tories as the Liberal voters divided three to two in their favour over Labour.
You can move around placings depend on whwre you set your excess deaths periods, if you adjust for previous years flu seasons etc, but on a log scale all the major European nations are within the same order of magnitude (except Germany) and many Eastern European countries worst effected.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=content&utm_content=covidtracker2021&fbclid=IwAR106hsY9pDIO17b3-Dr-0qd9MJu80vs-F6i7JMfkaCUW6IaZJM_cn5cWVY
If the Lib Dems can't make capital out of both Boris Johnson's pivot to the North and his manifold travails by the time of the next election, then you have to imagine that they'll probably never recover.
That's not to say the government didn't make numerous mistakes, some repeatedly.
Churchill, as you say, wanted to absorb Clement Davies into the new Government and that might well have been the end though I think Grimond would have continued as an Independent Liberal.
There are a number of counterfactuals speculating how the Liberal "revival" might have happened earlier had Grimond become leader sooner.
Equally, they would surely have lost Carmarthen.
I would *love* to see Dawn Butler as LOTO. Going on a walk round a red wall seat calling people racist 204 times in a single hour.
Kensington and Chelsea was another.
50.4% for C&A (ninth place)
If the economy goes south, we could see it work.
I think one of the Hampshire seats has often been touted as the safest in the country - Hampshire North-East? (North-East Hampshire with 50.9%)
Richmond (Yorks)? (Nope, only 48.9%)
The Hampshire seat was a banker and I managed to get the compass direction at the wrong end of the name. Doh.
I don't think a message of same old same old will do.
The rest are/were in:
Berkshire
Hampshire
London
Staffordshire
Surrey (x2)
West Sussex (x2)
West Midlands
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57629016
The moneys down!
New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham
I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?
Having said that, it is the Labour selectors that counts rather than the wider electorate.
What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.
The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.
Fine Brezhnev joke:
Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”
*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.
Tories aren't that talented but they do have the likes of Javid to call off the bench and people like Hunt still in the wings.
"A woman confronted the staff at the Wi Spa in Los Angeles after a man walked into the women's section with his genitals hanging out in front of girls. He identified as a "woman." The employees said he had a right to do that. The employees say that it's the law."
https://twitter.com/i/status/1408997169344909313
52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)
That leaves four:
West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)
Esher and Walton?
Defender Chris Gunter has criticised the "joke set-up" of Euro 2020 after Wales' last-16 exit against Denmark.
After playing their first two tournament games in Azerbaijan, Wales faced Italy in Rome before meeting the Danes in Amsterdam.
While three of their four opponents were backed by a significant number of fans, only a handful of Wales supporters were able to attend matches.
"Every nation had fans wherever they went," Gunter wrote on social media.
"[But Wales did not] apart from the 350 who broke government rules and bank accounts to be there.
"You and us deserved more from this joke set-up of a tournament, but who said life was fair.
"Have a cry, but then smile that we were dining at the top table yet again."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57629385
"Homosexual activity is common in Giraffes and in many cases is actually more frequent than heterosexual behaviour... in one study area, mountings between males accounted for 94 percent of all observed sexual activity... at any given time, about 5 percent of all males are participating in necking."
Page 392, Biological Exuberance. Animal homosexuality and natural diversity. Bruce Bagemihl (1999)
If you did want to simplify, then I think it would be fair enough to say that Giraffes are very gay.
Well obviously when we lose to Germany on Tuesday no, but in a fantasy world if they won it? Semi and Finals are at Wembley, QF?
Edit - and East Surrey by a whisker.
Was it one of those "look it happens in nature so it's completely natural" things?
If so it's a ludcrously stupid position. I'm sure we can find racist and rapist animals to defend racists and rapists.
50.1% for East Surrey (11th place)
To put it in context, the Lib Dems managed over half the vote in eight seats:
Hazel Grove - 54.5%
North Cornwall - 53.2%
Newbury - 52.9%
Orkney & Shetland - 52.0%
Harrogate & Knaresborough - 51.5%
Sheffield, Hallam - 51.3%
North East Fife - 51.2%
North Devon - 50.8%