The Butler did it? – politicalbetting.com

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The Butler did it? – politicalbetting.com

The Sunday Telegraph are reporting that

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eek

In 2017 Corbyn got seats because May asked Tory votes to be turkeys voting for Christmas (or at least to voluntarily pay £x,000 in tax).

The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.

dixiedean

Second.
A challenge this year risks sealing a duff leader in place till the next GE. Like last time.

ydoethur

Jeremy Corbyn is still a member of the SCG?

Even though he’s not a Labour MP?

As for Butler, the only way Labour could pick someone worse would be if they went for Susan Michie.

eek

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

IanB2

Go fifth

IanB2

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

TheScreamingEagles

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

DecrepiterJohnL

eek said:

In 2017 Corbyn got seats because May asked Tory votes to be turkeys voting for Christmas (or at least to voluntarily pay £x,000 in tax).

The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.

There were many components to ge2017, not just social care. Oh Jeremy Corbyn; terrorist outrages; Lynton Crosby never having met Theresa May when he designed the campaign. CCHQ pinched the popular bits for Boris in 2019.

another_richard

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

Northern_Al

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

Probably not.

Philip_Thompson

eek said:

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

In part yes, in part no.

If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.

Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.

But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

IanB2

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.

Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.

isam

Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really

Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

Probably not.

I reckon @ydoethur has it right.

I also think Portillo's youthful indiscretions at Cambridge would have come out before the general election which would have damaged Portillo a lot.

We really did live in different times then.

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

Probably not.

But he might have lost it in 2001.

FrancisUrquhart

ROFL..Dawn....ROFL.....Butler.....will she get Obama to nominate her?

another_richard

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

Butler seems to have more of a personality than Starmer.

Not one that is more attractive to voters in general but perhaps its more attractive to Labour activists.

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.

Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.

The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.

So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.

Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’

isam

isam said:

Still 50/1 with Fred, but someone wants to back 40 on Betfair which is a tip in itself really

Does this, charisma/personality based, opinion make me a Jess Phillips fanboi like noting Boris will beat Sir Keir on the same basis does?

Still 50/1 with the others as well!!! I might go and back that in my local Corals

another_richard

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

In part yes, in part no.

If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.

Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.

But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.

Difficult to reverse the 'AZ is more dangerous than covid' mentality.

For one thing it would require the government to admit it had failed on border control.

MaxPB

Riccardo has been extremely unimpressive in the McLaren that Norris is driving the crap out of.

FrancisUrquhart

"20,000 ravers / protesters closed down Regent street save of scene to support DJ’s and clubs in the UK 🇬🇧….. chants of Freedom … strong police presence…. No trouble yet"

https://t.co/4bHyEIULgE

IanB2

I see that it’s one of those days when to watch the footy we have to switch over to the third channel.

Fysics_Teacher

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.

Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.

The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.

So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.

Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’

I thought modern was anything after the Battle of Bosworth?

FrancisUrquhart

South Africa's British and Irish Lions tour preparations have been derailed as three positive Covid-19 tests have left the whole team having to isolate.

stodge

ydoethur said:

The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.

So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.

Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’

The Caithness & Sutherland 1945 result remains one of the most extraordinary. The three candidates were split by 61 votes out of a total vote of 16,625 - the Conservative won by 6.

It was scant reward for Sinclair who lost in 1950 by just 269 votes. He had served throughout the wartime Coalition as Secretary of State for Air.

I've heard it said Churchill refused to allow the Conservatives to kill off the much weakened Liberals in the early 1950s because of the residual affection he had for both his former party and for Sinclair.

Perhaps one day a Liberal Democrat leader will be able to return the favour....

tlg86

IanB2 said:

I see that it’s one of those days when to watch the footy we have to switch over to the third channel.

And if England make the semi finals, it will - as in 2018 - be exclusively live in ITV. And I predict lots of outrage if England make it.

FrancisUrquhart

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

I see that it’s one of those days when to watch the footy we have to switch over to the third channel.

And if England make the semi finals, it will - as in 2018 - be exclusively live in ITV. And I predict lots of outrage if England make it.

And no 4k.....

Foxy

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

IanB2

@CovidJusticeUK
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.

ydoethur

stodge said:

ydoethur said:

The last incumbent mainland party leader to lose his seat until Swinson was Sinclair in 1945.

So until 2019 it was none since the end of the Second World War.

Don’t know if that counts as ‘modern times.’

The Caithness & Sutherland 1945 result remains one of the most extraordinary. The three candidates were split by 61 votes out of a total vote of 16,625 - the Conservative won by 6.

It was scant reward for Sinclair who lost in 1950 by just 269 votes. He had served throughout the wartime Coalition as Secretary of State for Air.

I've heard it said Churchill refused to allow the Conservatives to kill off the much weakened Liberals in the early 1950s because of the residual affection he had for both his former party and for Sinclair.

Perhaps one day a Liberal Democrat leader will be able to return the favour....

Implausible. He went to great lengths to get Gwilym Lloyd George, who was the highest profile Liberal in Parliament after 1945, to join the National Government, and he offered Clement Davies the role of Secretary of State for Education in 1951.

Had Davies accepted, the Liberals would have more or less ceased to exist by 1955.

Which would have been politically helpful for the Tories as the Liberal voters divided three to two in their favour over Labour.

IanB2

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

FrancisUrquhart

IanB2 said:

@CovidJusticeUK
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.

Aren't the UK now something like 25th? In terms of Europe, depending on how you measure it, of the big nations, on excess deaths adjusted for population age, Germany is significantly lower, but most are now quite similar.

You can move around placings depend on whwre you set your excess deaths periods, if you adjust for previous years flu seasons etc, but on a log scale all the major European nations are within the same order of magnitude (except Germany) and many Eastern European countries worst effected.

BigRich

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

In part yes, in part no.

If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.

Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.

But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.

23.2% of Australians have had at lest one jab, way behind UK and many other places, but still not nothing, if they started with the most venerable, and take up rate was highest in the most venerable groups, then it may not be that bad, over 100,000 a day jabs being given, that could go up a lot as people see the news and some decide to go for AZ now rather than wait for Pz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=content&utm_content=covidtracker2021&fbclid=IwAR106hsY9pDIO17b3-Dr-0qd9MJu80vs-F6i7JMfkaCUW6IaZJM_cn5cWVY

Black_Rook

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

What a loss it would have been to the world of televised train travel it would have been, had Portillo’s phone lines actually been put into action.

The what if that has been in my mind for years.

Say Portillo had become PM in 1995 would he have still lost his seat in 1997?

John Major had a huge swing against him in Huntingdon, around half the swing Portillo suffered, and he was a lot more popular than Portillo.

And with Portillo having to run a round the country campaigning, I’m guessing he might have done even worse.

Equally, no PM has ever lost their seat in an election although Balfour and McDonald had both been PM until shortly beforehand.

I think it used to be said that no party leader in modern times had lost their seat. At three consecutive elections now a sitting or former leader of the Lib Dems has lost their seat.

Though whether the Lib Dems even meet the definition of "major party" is another question.

Farron has an excellent chance of becoming number four, if the boundary reforms go ahead with the provisional plans for Cumbria remaining intact.

If the Lib Dems can't make capital out of both Boris Johnson's pivot to the North and his manifold travails by the time of the next election, then you have to imagine that they'll probably never recover.

IanB2

If the Saj has any political nous, his first action would be to wring a per cent extra for NHS staff out of his former mates at the Treasury.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

What did we use to blame for our fuckups before we had computers?

another_richard

IanB2 said:

@CovidJusticeUK
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.

Its actually a mid table death total and likely to drop a few places as Delta spreads.

That's not to say the government didn't make numerous mistakes, some repeatedly.

Black_Rook

FrancisUrquhart said:

South Africa's British and Irish Lions tour preparations have been derailed as three positive Covid-19 tests have left the whole team having to isolate.

Quelle surprise.

stodge

ydoethur said:

Implausible. He went to great lengths to get Gwilym Lloyd George, who was the highest profile Liberal in Parliament after 1945, to join the National Government, and he offered Clement Davies the role of Secretary of State for Education in 1951.

Had Davies accepted, the Liberals would have more or less ceased to exist by 1955.

Which would have been politically helpful for the Tories as the Liberal voters divided three to two in their favour over Labour.

There were those in the Conservative Party who wanted to end the electoral "pacts" which allowed five of the six Liberal MPs to survive - I believe Jo Grimond was the only Liberal in 1951 who won facing both Conservative and Labour opponents.

Churchill, as you say, wanted to absorb Clement Davies into the new Government and that might well have been the end though I think Grimond would have continued as an Independent Liberal.

There are a number of counterfactuals speculating how the Liberal "revival" might have happened earlier had Grimond become leader sooner.

squareroot2

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

Ditto i have had to.disable pred text too

ydoethur

stodge said:

ydoethur said:

Implausible. He went to great lengths to get Gwilym Lloyd George, who was the highest profile Liberal in Parliament after 1945, to join the National Government, and he offered Clement Davies the role of Secretary of State for Education in 1951.

Had Davies accepted, the Liberals would have more or less ceased to exist by 1955.

Which would have been politically helpful for the Tories as the Liberal voters divided three to two in their favour over Labour.

There were those in the Conservative Party who wanted to end the electoral "pacts" which allowed five of the six Liberal MPs to survive - I believe Jo Grimond was the only Liberal in 1951 who won facing both Conservative and Labour opponents.

Churchill, as you say, wanted to absorb Clement Davies into the new Government and that might well have been the end though I think Grimond would have continued as an Independent Liberal.

There are a number of counterfactuals speculating how the Liberal "revival" might have happened earlier had Grimond become leader sooner.

Although I am pretty sure that they would have held Cardigan and Montgomery even without Tory support.

Equally, they would surely have lost Carmarthen.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

What did we use to blame for our fuckups before we had computers?

In my case: junior doctors

RochdalePioneers

eek said:

In 2017 Corbyn got seats because May asked Tory votes to be turkeys voting for Christmas (or at least to voluntarily pay £x,000 in tax).

The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.

Careful now. Nick - and he's by no means alone - thinks Jess is too centrist and would prefer one of the idiots as leader.

I would *love* to see Dawn Butler as LOTO. Going on a walk round a red wall seat calling people racist 204 times in a single hour.

FrancisUrquhart

another_richard said:

IanB2 said:

@CovidJusticeUK
But in all honesty, many of us have been wondering why a Health Secretary who presided over one of the worst Covid-19 death tolls in the world needed a personal scandal to resign.

Its actually a mid table death total and likely to drop a few places as Delta spreads.

That's not to say the government didn't make numerous mistakes, some repeatedly.

That group are bad faith actors. A corbyn front group. And have a nasty streak e.g. they tried to smear Boris taking a private moment at the wall of remembrance as him trying to do some fake PR stunt...when it emerged he did genuinely go there quietly on his own (plus minimal security) at night and the only reason anybody found out is a member of the public took a blurry photo as they were passing.

tlg86

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

What did we use to blame for our fuckups before we had computers?

The working class plebs/Oxonians who worked for me.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Chesham and Amersham would have been one, amusingly.

Kensington and Chelsea was another.

felix

BigRich said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

In part yes, in part no.

If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.

Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.

But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.

23.2% of Australians have had at lest one jab, way behind UK and many other places, but still not nothing, if they started with the most venerable, and take up rate was highest in the most venerable groups, then it may not be that bad, over 100,000 a day jabs being given, that could go up a lot as people see the news and some decide to go for AZ now rather than wait for Pz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=content&utm_content=covidtracker2021&fbclid=IwAR106hsY9pDIO17b3-Dr-0qd9MJu80vs-F6i7JMfkaCUW6IaZJM_cn5cWVY

I love the idea of starting with the most venerable - stand up Dame Maggie Smith....etc

ydoethur

felix said:

BigRich said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

FPT

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

dixiedean said:

moonshine said:

williamglenn said:

eek said:

another_richard said:

BigRich said:

alex_ said:

O/T - Australia seems to have a real problem. Astra is their main vaccine but nobody wants it. Some of the discussions sound like U.K. April 20 (“Policemen moving people on for sitting on park benches!”). Contact tracing appears to be on the verge of reaching it’s limit (how many “venues of concern” becomes unmanageable?).

They must really hope it hasn’t spread far more than they are picking up.

Obviously they are far better off than almost everywhere is objective terms. But when the entire country has got used to the zero Covid mindset...

Does Australia have a problem with people not wanting the vaccine? (at leased any more that other Weston nations e.g. the UK and USA)

I heard somebody say that about both Australia and NZ on here a few weeks ago, but when I talked to my family in NZ they are adamant that there is no big anti vax thing, just slow in getting hold of vaccines in big numbers. and looked a some NZ news outlets, and nothing there.

Australia and New Zealand are different and it may be that what's happening on one is not the same as the other. But, I think its probably the case that Australia has vaccinated less of its population than other Weston nations mostly because of the late and low supply, even if Anti Vaz sentiment by some, has not helped.

Australia's problem seems to be that it has AZ but most people do not want AZ.

Now that's not a problem if Australia can keep Delta out until it has vaccinated with Pfizer.

But if Delta gets in (as it has) and proves uncontrollable (which we will see in the next few weeks) then it will have Delta rampaging around a country with little vaccination and almost zero acquired immunity.

I strongly suspect Delta is now uncontrollable within Sydney - it's just too easily infectious

I hope that's too pessimistic. A lockdown is a lockdown. A more infectious variant can't magically overcome the absence of social mixing.

Ultimately this pandemic will only end when you have sufficient herd immunity, either from acquired protection or a vaccine. Otherwise you will continually be bouncing between varying levels of restrictions (often quite suddenly imposed) and in the case of Oz and NZ, draconian border measures.

A burst of delta in Australia might wake them up a bit over there that they can’t keep it out forever and instead they need to get themselves vaxxed.

Well yes.
One interesting feature of the Sydney "lockdown" is that sporting events outdoors continue with 50% capacity.
Something we don't routinely have here as of yet. Test events apart.

Yep - it's not a "lockdown" by any UK definition which I suspect means Delta is going to sweep through Sydney over the next 3 weeks.

Sydney needs an actual lockdown, in the same way as the rest of the world did last March. Go home, and stay home. It might be too late already.

Sydney needs vaccines.

The number of Covid cases went from 2 to 32 in a single day. It could easily be over 100 or even a 1000 given how many people with the Delta variant display cold rather than Covid type symptons.

Sydney needs to vaccinate ASAP but I suspect it's already too late.

In part yes, in part no.

If they get the vaccines they can and should be able to rapidly vaccinate the vulnerable (like we did in six weeks at the start of the year) while telling the vulnerable to shield.

Its still starting off at a relatively low base so if they vaccinate their vulnerable now they ought to be able to win the race versus the virus.

But if they don't vaccinate, then they're screwed.

23.2% of Australians have had at lest one jab, way behind UK and many other places, but still not nothing, if they started with the most venerable, and take up rate was highest in the most venerable groups, then it may not be that bad, over 100,000 a day jabs being given, that could go up a lot as people see the news and some decide to go for AZ now rather than wait for Pz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=content&utm_content=covidtracker2021&fbclid=IwAR106hsY9pDIO17b3-Dr-0qd9MJu80vs-F6i7JMfkaCUW6IaZJM_cn5cWVY

I love the idea of starting with the most venerable - stand up Dame Maggie Smith....etc

Although in this case, either one works, as the most venerable are most vulnerable.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Chesham and Amersham would have been one, amusingly.

Kensington and Chelsea was another.

53.6% for K&C (second place)
50.4% for C&A (ninth place)

RochdalePioneers

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

FrancisUrquhart

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

LostPassword

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Witney? (Nope, only 43.0%)

I think one of the Hampshire seats has often been touted as the safest in the country - Hampshire North-East? (North-East Hampshire with 50.9%)

Richmond (Yorks)? (Nope, only 48.9%)

The Hampshire seat was a banker and I managed to get the compass direction at the wrong end of the name. Doh.

Mexicanpete

Another bid from the Labour left for their dream of opposition in perpetuity.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

LostPassword

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

If Boris Johnson was a socialist I reckon he could win a majority for it.

tlg86

LostPassword said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Witney? (Nope, only 43.0%)

I think one of the Hampshire seats has often been touted as the safest in the country - Hampshire North-East? (North-East Hampshire with 50.9%)

Richmond (Yorks)? (Nope, only 48.9%)

The Hampshire seat was a banker and I managed to get the compass direction at the wrong end of the name. Doh.

Yes to North East Hampshire (50.9% - sixth place).

The rest are/were in:

Berkshire
Hampshire
London
Staffordshire
Surrey (x2)
West Sussex (x2)
West Midlands

Andy_JS

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

FrancisUrquhart

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

If Boris Johnson was a socialist I reckon he could win a majority for it.

So far he is doing a bit of an impression of one, massive state spending, renationalisation plans...

gealbhan

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

BigRich

LostPassword said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Witney? (Nope, only 43.0%)

I think one of the Hampshire seats has often been touted as the safest in the country - Hampshire North-East? (North-East Hampshire with 50.9%)

Richmond (Yorks)? (Nope, only 48.9%)

The Hampshire seat was a banker and I managed to get the compass direction at the wrong end of the name. Doh.

Bury St Edmonds?

tlg86

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

Fysics_Teacher

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

Pound shop Diane Abbott.

And not one of the better pound shops either.

The left are making the mistake of thinking we still live in a political world where policy stance is the predominant criterion.

Whereas nowadays political leadership mostly comes down to personality. If Starmer is challenged, it will be by someone who actually has one.

When choosing leaders, parties tend to overcomplicated for the flaws of the outgoing one. So we saw the charismatic charlatan Johnson replace the dull but worthy May, while Labour went the other way.

On this basis, I would expect someone like Jess Philips or Angela Rayner to win. I think Rayner would be more acceptable to the left, and end the damaging internal Labour feud for all but the bitter-enders.

Overcomplicated?

Over compensate! My auto correct is out of control since my phone updated!

What did we use to blame for our fuckups before we had computers?

"To err is human; to really foul things up requires a computer".

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - BT and OneWeb sign rural broadband deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57629016

isam

The moneys down!

Andy_JS

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don't think any of the Corbynista candidates have the charisma of the man himself. Corbyn was a great campaigner, albeit for some fairly niche causes, and a man who loved public speaking and feeding off a crowd. I cannot see Burgon or Butler or any of the others managing that.

Having said that, it is the Labour selectors that counts rather than the wider electorate.

Alphabet_Soup

gealbhan said:

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

It's the love that dare not speak its name for fear of ridicule.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don’t think you could actually win a majority for proper socialism. That’s predicated on a number of Victorian assumptions that turned out to be wrong, and is why Corbyn kept pretending he wasn’t a socialist. Just as nobody takes Communism seriously now (unless they’re a bit dim) because it’s self-evidently bullshit.*

What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.

The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.

Fine Brezhnev joke:

Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”

*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don't think any of the Corbynista candidates have the charisma of the man himself. Corbyn was a great campaigner, albeit for some fairly niche causes, and a man who loved public speaking and feeding off a crowd. I cannot see Burgon or Butler or any of the others managing that.

Well its the problem with Labour in general....very weak and the better ones are linked to previous regimes / tarred with trying to stop Brexit.

Tories aren't that talented but they do have the likes of Javid to call off the bench and people like Hunt still in the wings.

IanB2

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

In 2017 Corbyn got seats because May asked Tory votes to be turkeys voting for Christmas (or at least to voluntarily pay £x,000 in tax).

The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.

Careful now. Nick - and he's by no means alone - thinks Jess is too centrist and would prefer one of the idiots as leader.

I would *love* to see Dawn Butler as LOTO. Going on a walk round a red wall seat calling people racist 204 times in a single hour.

I fear Nick is still mentally processing his bit part in the Great Betrayal under Blair

Foxy

Alphabet_Soup said:

gealbhan said:

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

It's the love that dare not speak its name for fear of ridicule.

It's just a tall story.

borisatsun

I expect this sort of thing is coming to the UK..

"A woman confronted the staff at the Wi Spa in Los Angeles after a man walked into the women's section with his genitals hanging out in front of girls. He identified as a "woman." The employees said he had a right to do that. The employees say that it's the law."

https://twitter.com/i/status/1408997169344909313

Foxy

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don’t think you could actually win a majority for proper socialism. That’s predicated on a number of Victorian assumptions that urned out to be wrong, and is why Corbyn kept pretending he wasn’t a socialist. Just as nobody takes Communism seriously now (unless they’re a bit dim) because it’s self-evidently bullshit.*

What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.

The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.

Fine Brezhnev joke:

Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”

*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.

It is the drawback with the current statist chumocracy too.

tlg86

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

ydoethur

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don’t think you could actually win a majority for proper socialism. That’s predicated on a number of Victorian assumptions that urned out to be wrong, and is why Corbyn kept pretending he wasn’t a socialist. Just as nobody takes Communism seriously now (unless they’re a bit dim) because it’s self-evidently bullshit.*

What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.

The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.

Fine Brezhnev joke:

Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”

*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.

It is the drawback with the current statist chumocracy too.

Well, yes, but that’s greed and stupidity rather than ideology.

BigRich

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Horsum?

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, Dawn Butler isn't, and never would be, a serious contender for leader. It's highly unlikely she would stand; but if she did, expect her to reach around 20% maximum. Starmer is safe for now. If he were to resign, I'd expect Rayner, Nandy and possibly Philips to slug it out, with maybe one or two surprises such as Ashworth, Lammy or Thornberry (again). There's no 'Corbynite' candidate at the moment with a cat in hell's chance.

The problem for the left is that even if they manage to get a preferred lunatic installed as leader, there isn't a mandate for them out in the country.

Corbynistas believe there is...one more push.

If the economy goes south, we could see it work.

Well, they’re right, one more push and they will lose all their remaining seats outside London and Liverpool.

I actually think there is an issue with how the 21st century is panning out for a lot of people and a bit like brexit you might be able to convince enough to turn over the apple cart. The young definitely open to some proper socialism.

I don't think a message of same old same old will do.

I don’t think you could actually win a majority for proper socialism. That’s predicated on a number of Victorian assumptions that turned out to be wrong, and is why Corbyn kept pretending he wasn’t a socialist. Just as nobody takes Communism seriously now (unless they’re a bit dim) because it’s self-evidently bullshit.*

What you could find a majority for is statism, where government intervenes on a regular basis in a wide range of areas to ensure substantial changes. But that is, ironically, the antithesis of Socialism even though that’s usually how socialist countries have worked in practice.

The big drawback of statism is that when you concentrate power in the hands of a few people - for whatever reason - the money always follows. As we can see in Venezuela, Cuba or China. Under the Soviets it was worse. Between 1980 and 1983 the Secretary of the Uzbek SSR made a staggering R1 million *a day* in bribes.

Fine Brezhnev joke:

Brezhnev’s mother pays him a visit. He gives her a tour of his estate and shows her his garage full of fancy foreign cars. Her response: “But Lyonya, what will you do if the Communists come back?”

*Interestingly, this was evident to Marx himself as early as 1852, but for some reason not enough Communists understand the message of the 18e Brumaire de Louis Napoleon.

I was being a bit hyperbolic....i think as you say you can definitely sell bigger state and more intervention in markets. Rather than 90/00s was all about denying that, instead saying we will make what we have work better, but not too many tax rises and still believe generally the market works e.g. even Blair were very keen on getting private sector to provide public services.

tlg86

BigRich said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Horsum?

I assume that's supposed to be Horsham (50.8%, seventh place).

Taz

borisatsun said:

I expect this sort of thing is coming to the UK..

"A woman confronted the staff at the Wi Spa in Los Angeles after a man walked into the women's section with his genitals hanging out in front of girls. He identified as a "woman." The employees said he had a right to do that. The employees say that it's the law."

https://twitter.com/i/status/1408997169344909313

Get with the program gender critical women. This is the future. Bearded men explaining what it is to be a woman and what a woman is.

TheScreamingEagles

The Welsh really are sore losers.

Defender Chris Gunter has criticised the "joke set-up" of Euro 2020 after Wales' last-16 exit against Denmark.

After playing their first two tournament games in Azerbaijan, Wales faced Italy in Rome before meeting the Danes in Amsterdam.

While three of their four opponents were backed by a significant number of fans, only a handful of Wales supporters were able to attend matches.

"Every nation had fans wherever they went," Gunter wrote on social media.

"[But Wales did not] apart from the 350 who broke government rules and bank accounts to be there.

"You and us deserved more from this joke set-up of a tournament, but who said life was fair.

"Have a cry, but then smile that we were dining at the top table yet again."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57629385

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).

LostPassword

gealbhan said:

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

I think it's a bit simplistic to talk of animals as possessing human sexual orientations, but, according to the reference work I have on the subject:

"Homosexual activity is common in Giraffes and in many cases is actually more frequent than heterosexual behaviour... in one study area, mountings between males accounted for 94 percent of all observed sexual activity... at any given time, about 5 percent of all males are participating in necking."

Page 392, Biological Exuberance. Animal homosexuality and natural diversity. Bruce Bagemihl (1999)

If you did want to simplify, then I think it would be fair enough to say that Giraffes are very gay.

squareroot2

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

In 2017 Corbyn got seats because May asked Tory votes to be turkeys voting for Christmas (or at least to voluntarily pay £x,000 in tax).

The only sane choice in the current Labour Party ranks in Jess Philips on the basis that she can take the fight to Boris but the party still needs to be purged of its idiots and SKS needs to do that first.

Careful now. Nick - and he's by no means alone - thinks Jess is too centrist and would prefer one of the idiots as leader.

I would *love* to see Dawn Butler as LOTO. Going on a walk round a red wall seat calling people racist 204 times in a single hour.

I fear Nick is still mentally processing his bit part in the Great Betrayal under Blair

The great betrayal was left wing Labour MPs who supported Blair when they were opposed to what he was doing. Most of the Tories were culpable for a foolish decision based on Blair's lies..

FrancisUrquhart

Do England have to play any away games?

Well obviously when we lose to Germany on Tuesday no, but in a fantasy world if they won it? Semi and Finals are at Wembley, QF?

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do England have to play any away games?

Yes, if we beat Germany our QF will be in Rome, next Saturday night.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).

Surrey Heath.

Edit - and East Surrey by a whisker.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do England have to play any away games?

Well obviously when we lose to Germany on Tuesday no, but in a fantasy world if they won it?

Rome for the quarter final.

gealbhan

LostPassword said:

gealbhan said:

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

I think it's a bit simplistic to talk of animals as possessing human sexual orientations, but, according to the reference work I have on the subject:

"Homosexual activity is common in Giraffes and in many cases is actually more frequent than heterosexual behaviour... in one study area, mountings between males accounted for 94 percent of all observed sexual activity... at any given time, about 5 percent of all males are participating in necking."

Page 392, Biological Exuberance. Animal homosexuality and natural diversity. Bruce Bagemihl (1999)

If you did want to simplify, then I think it would be fair enough to say that Giraffes are very gay.

Necking?

Black_Rook

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do England have to play any away games?

Well obviously when we lose to Germany on Tuesday no, but in a fantasy world if they won it? Semi and Finals are at Wembley, QF?

The quarter-final would be played in Rome.

algarkirk

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).

Arundel is one of those seats which should be turning anti Tory if the 'educated people don't vote Tory' thesis is correct more than highly selectively. Don't hold your breath.

ydoethur

LostPassword said:

gealbhan said:

So what % of Giraffes are gay? 🤔

I think it's a bit simplistic to talk of animals as possessing human sexual orientations, but, according to the reference work I have on the subject:

"Homosexual activity is common in Giraffes and in many cases is actually more frequent than heterosexual behaviour... in one study area, mountings between males accounted for 94 percent of all observed sexual activity... at any given time, about 5 percent of all males are participating in necking."

Page 392, Biological Exuberance. Animal homosexuality and natural diversity. Bruce Bagemihl (1999)

If you did want to simplify, then I think it would be fair enough to say that Giraffes are very gay.

Well, they have got quite a lot of neck to neck with.

borisatsun

Why did The Butler serve up the gay giraffes thing anyway?

Was it one of those "look it happens in nature so it's completely natural" things?

If so it's a ludcrously stupid position. I'm sure we can find racist and rapist animals to defend racists and rapists.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Did you know that Huntingdon (55.3%) was one of only 13 seats in which the Tories won over half the vote in 1997. Can anyone name any of the other 12?

Desmond Swayne was one of them IIRC.

Yep, New Forest West - 50.6%, eighth place.

These are the ones I can remember, because I used to be obsessed with this sort of question.

New Forest West
South Staffs
Kensington & Chelsea
Ruislip - Northwood
Chesham & Amersham
Sutton Coldfield
Wokingham

I can't remember the other 5 at the moment. Maybe North East Hampshire as well?

Very impressive!

52.2% for Sutton Coldfield (fourth place)
50.2% for Ruislip-Northwood (10th place)
50.1% for Wokingham (12th place)
50.02% for South Staffordshire (13th place)

That leaves four:

West Sussex (x2)
Surrey (x2)

Arundel and South Downs was presumably one?

Esher and Walton?

Yes to Arundel and South Downs (53.1%, third place).

Surrey Heath.

Edit - and East Surrey by a whisker.

51.6% for Surrey Heath (fifth place)
50.1% for East Surrey (11th place)

To put it in context, the Lib Dems managed over half the vote in eight seats:

Hazel Grove - 54.5%
North Cornwall - 53.2%
Newbury - 52.9%
Orkney & Shetland - 52.0%
Harrogate & Knaresborough - 51.5%
Sheffield, Hallam - 51.3%
North East Fife - 51.2%
North Devon - 50.8%