At the moment the rise in cases in England is largely being drive by what is happening in the North West - more than 40% of all cases over the past week were in this region.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
It should, but it won't.
It shouldn't* but it will.
*based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
I think we'll know by June 21st whether this is a good idea or not. So I'm happy for govt to wait to decide, although I have limited faith they will make an evidence-based decision.
As to how high hospitalizations will rise -> it obviously depends on whether govt changes course. But I think numbers of patients being admitted to hospital is likely to exceed 300/day by end of the month and that could be a big underestimate.
300/day is an absolutely tiny figure though.
There are 1,200+ hospitals in the UK – so back of a fag packet maths, that's one admission every four days per hospital...
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?
A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
That is indeed contrarian @contrarian . To achieve freedom we need a very high level of vaccination and we are yet to achieve it.
We will never achieve a very high level of vaccination unless we make it compulsory, 75% of UK adults have now had a first dose and half a second dose, if we do not reopen next month with most adults now vaccinated to at least some degree we will never fully reopen unless we make vaccination compulsory
Not sure Mr hakan ayik is going to be very popular with the criminal underworld....very convenient that Australian 60 mins did a special on him 2 days ago and handily exposed where he is, what name he goes under, who his family are....
Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?
A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
That is indeed contrarian @contrarian . To achieve freedom we need a very high level of vaccination and we are yet to achieve it.
We will never achieve a very high level of vaccination unless we make it compulsory, 75% of UK adults have now had a first dose and half a second dose, if we do not reopen next month with most adults now vaccinated to at least some degree we will never fully reopen unless we make vaccination compulsory
80%+ (see Wales) is a high level of vaccination in terms of other vaccination campaigns.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
Oh yes. But it was interesting to see the reaction of people to the idea that the flexibility of allegiance works both ways.
It is interesting how many apparently "liberal" people think that the social contract works like this -
1) The Government changes the contract. You'd better pray we don't change it further. 2) The people just accept the above.
For example, some lawyers of my acquaintance were beyond horrified when, in response to their ideas that petty crime should not be prosecuted, I gave some examples of privatised law enforcement that occurred as a result.
IIRC some people here got quite upset at one example I gave - a hedge fund type reacted to the refusal of the police to er... police by hiring his own private plod to patrol his village.
As is often the case, Malmesbury, I think I detect the outline of the point you're making here, but I couldn't swear to it. It's the way you tell em.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
I suspect furlough is making it too easy, but also the media and the likes of independent sage have followed the zero covid mantra scaring the public and even yesterday, saying it has be eliminated before lockdown is eased.
I have no idea how Boris squares this but he is PM and he has the call to make
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
The freedom-loving French are going to beat us out of this thing aren't they? Boozy yacht parties on the the Cote while we are still shuffling around Sainsbury's wine aisle in masks.
If the markets get wind of the fact the UK isn't serious about unlocking when other countries are going back to normality, the effect could be horrendous. Sterling and Gilts beware.
Don't think we are too big or to clever to get burned here. Don't fall for all the 'mighty power of the UK treasury' bullsh*t.
We are f8cking vulnerable and getting more vulnerable by the week. If you think coronavirus is bad, just wait til you see what bankruptcy and penury do.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
Wrong, today was the day the polls on reopening turned.
51% of voters overall and 55% of Tories want to end the rule of 6 for meeting inside on June 21st and voters by 46% to 42% want to end the 30 limit for wedding guests on June 21st too (including 52% of Tory voters wanting to end restrictions on weddings)
No me old mucker. You, king of the polls, have it wrong. Yes to those two measures (by a whisker).
Otherwise:
Masks in shops and public transport: 71% should remain in place longer Social Distancing in pubs and restaurants: 61% should remain in place longer Work from home: 56% should remain in place longer Limits on big sporting/entertainment events: 55% should remain in place longer
At the moment the rise in cases in England is largely being drive by what is happening in the North West - more than 40% of all cases over the past week were in this region.
And the North West rise seems to be about spreading to different areas rather than a genuine exponential rise in specific places - i.e. Bolton flattened out pretty quick.
Once it reaches any given community there is far less scope for it to grow before it runs out of hosts. Makes all the modelling of doubling times feel a bit redundant as the real question is where does it just plateau - if Bolton is representative, there's no big wave coming.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
A confirmed vaccine sceptic, Mr Fox also said on Tuesday that he would refuse to get the Covid jab until after 2023 – when he claims all the tests needed to convince him of its safety would be completed.
Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?
A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
That is indeed contrarian @contrarian . To achieve freedom we need a very high level of vaccination and we are yet to achieve it.
We will never achieve a very high level of vaccination unless we make it compulsory, 75% of UK adults have now had a first dose and half a second dose, if we do not reopen next month with most adults now vaccinated to at least some degree we will never fully reopen unless we make vaccination compulsory
Or give freedom rewards to the vaccinated. Like they do in China.
Rewards for the compliant. Penalties for the non-compliant.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.
If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
Looks like you've called this right, Doug. I'm loath to argue with a 1.02 price.
But do you think they'll delay the whole thing or just some things?
I think they'll put the whole thing back to avoid mixed messaging.
Ok thanks. In which case - even if it's a short delay - I'll have rather misread this one.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
Oh yes. But it was interesting to see the reaction of people to the idea that the flexibility of allegiance works both ways.
It is interesting how many apparently "liberal" people think that the social contract works like this -
1) The Government changes the contract. You'd better pray we don't change it further. 2) The people just accept the above.
For example, some lawyers of my acquaintance were beyond horrified when, in response to their ideas that petty crime should not be prosecuted, I gave some examples of privatised law enforcement that occurred as a result.
IIRC some people here got quite upset at one example I gave - a hedge fund type reacted to the refusal of the police to er... police by hiring his own private plod to patrol his village.
As is often the case, Malmesbury, I think I detect the outline of the point you're making here, but I couldn't swear to it. It's the way you tell em.
It's pretty simple. A number of people think that governing consists of them telling The Head Count what to do.
Then they are surprised when The Head Count say no, we don't like that. And we are going to do our own thing.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
The freedom-loving French are going to beat us out of this thing aren't they? Boozy yacht parties on the the Cote while we are still shuffling around Sainsbury's wine aisle in masks.
Oh how we laughed at the Europeans with their gallic/germanic ways and sensible approach to the freedom of their citizens.
I suspect that will be the turning point. If we get to that point.
Pandemic? Restrictions? Most people don't have a clue what's needed/proportionate/appropriate, nor understand (unless in hospitality industry - and even then, probably only if running the business) the costs. So they generally assume that the government, 'following the science' will do roughly the right thing.
But if Johnny Foreigner starts cavorting with all sorts in the street - or indeed in the home - while having had fewer vaccinations than us and with no apparent ill effects? Then I think people will, in general, start asking questions. At least, I hope so. It will make great newspaper front pages, comparing what the French are up to with what we're allowed to do.
Or, indeed, it could happen before if the media turn or Labour (or even, god help us, the Lib Dems) start asking serious questions. Do the opposition even have a position on 21 June? Do the LDs?
Having said all that, I do think there's more upside than downside for Johnson in sticking with 21 June and I do expect that still to - at least more or less - happen. A few restrictions maybe (keeping masks in some settings) or possibly a two week delay to check the numbers some more. But if it's not sorted come the summer holidays when people want to get out and do things and travel and see people then people are going to get pissed and while I think Johnson is not a very good leader, I don't believe him to be stupid.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I'm ii) - and so is Fox isn't he?
I am (ii) as well but I would be much more confidently so if we had managed to do another 6-7m vaccinations in the last 3 weeks.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
Wrong, today was the day the polls on reopening turned.
51% of voters overall and 55% of Tories want to end the rule of 6 for meeting inside on June 21st and voters by 46% to 42% want to end the 30 limit for wedding guests on June 21st too (including 52% of Tory voters wanting to end restrictions on weddings)
No me old mucker. You, king of the polls, have it wrong. Yes to those two measures (by a whisker).
Otherwise:
Masks in shops and public transport: 71% should remain in place longer Social Distancing in pubs and restaurants: 61% should remain in place longer Work from home: 56% should remain in place longer Limits on big sporting/entertainment events: 55% should remain in place longer
Masks in shops and public transport largely irrelevant, some social distancing too once the limit of indoor meeting is removed not much difference.
Some capacity limits on crowds at big events would also not make much difference either and most people will keep WFH if they work in an office for a few days a week indefinitely.
It is ending the 6 limit on people indoors and ending the limit on wedding guests that are the key changes most people want and that will make a real noticeable difference to their lives
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.
If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
Looks like you've called this right, Doug. I'm loath to argue with a 1.02 price.
But do you think they'll delay the whole thing or just some things?
I think they'll put the whole thing back to avoid mixed messaging.
Ok thanks. In which case - even if it's a short delay - I'll have rather misread this one.
Soon find out!
Do you feel that this would threaten your super-forecaster status?
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
Oh yes. But it was interesting to see the reaction of people to the idea that the flexibility of allegiance works both ways.
It is interesting how many apparently "liberal" people think that the social contract works like this -
1) The Government changes the contract. You'd better pray we don't change it further. 2) The people just accept the above.
For example, some lawyers of my acquaintance were beyond horrified when, in response to their ideas that petty crime should not be prosecuted, I gave some examples of privatised law enforcement that occurred as a result.
IIRC some people here got quite upset at one example I gave - a hedge fund type reacted to the refusal of the police to er... police by hiring his own private plod to patrol his village.
As is often the case, Malmesbury, I think I detect the outline of the point you're making here, but I couldn't swear to it. It's the way you tell em.
It's pretty simple. A number of people think that governing consists of them telling The Head Count what to do.
Then they are surprised when The Head Count say no, we don't like that. And we are going to do our own thing.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
Yes, I think you are right. I've certainly felt in the minority on here. A sort of @contrarian lite - which is worst than being contrarian full-fat, I fear.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
PB is moving as per the vaccination (Even if it's a little slow right now) schedule. June 21st is the summer solstice; the second day of my forties. A time to go forth into the world unburdened by restrictions. The right time.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
Oh yes. But it was interesting to see the reaction of people to the idea that the flexibility of allegiance works both ways.
It is interesting how many apparently "liberal" people think that the social contract works like this -
1) The Government changes the contract. You'd better pray we don't change it further. 2) The people just accept the above.
For example, some lawyers of my acquaintance were beyond horrified when, in response to their ideas that petty crime should not be prosecuted, I gave some examples of privatised law enforcement that occurred as a result.
IIRC some people here got quite upset at one example I gave - a hedge fund type reacted to the refusal of the police to er... police by hiring his own private plod to patrol his village.
As is often the case, Malmesbury, I think I detect the outline of the point you're making here, but I couldn't swear to it. It's the way you tell em.
It's pretty simple. A number of people think that governing consists of them telling The Head Count what to do.
Then they are surprised when The Head Count say no, we don't like that. And we are going to do our own thing.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
Yes, I think you are right. I've certainly felt in the minority on here. A sort of @contrarian lite - which is worst than being contrarian full-fat, I fear.
It's a definite diet coke option. Neither Drakeford's best bottled Pembrokeshire spring water nor Lozza Fox's full fat corn syrup coke.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
A confirmed vaccine sceptic, Mr Fox also said on Tuesday that he would refuse to get the Covid jab until after 2023 – when he claims all the tests needed to convince him of its safety would be completed.
That's interesting/odd. There's always an argument that there could be rare complications not picked up in trials (e.g. the clotting, probably, if eventually conclusively linked). But once you've jabbed a few million you can be pretty sure you've caught most of those. Also arguable if not many in your demographis have been jabbed - e.g. 30s at the moment (although a fair few in health services etc). But 2023 - the only argument for that is for long term side effects - but why would you be bothered about long term side effects that manifest in 2 years, but not those that might take 5, 10 years to manifest?
There's also the point that, by 2023, with the high vaccination levels we look likely to achieve here, the risks from Covid will likely be so low that there may be higher risks from having a needle of saline stabbed into your arm!
More likely 2023 is just another way of saying never while trying not to say that directly. Who is going to ask him in 2023 whether he got a jab in the end?
Someone needs to tell M. Macron that you’re not supposed to shake hands with totally random people in public, but people whom your people know, and have been vetted beforehand!
Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.
It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
That isn't true. First doses don't just make a "minor" difference, they make a huge difference. Effectiveness is only slightly reduced against Indian variant and Pfizer / Moderna have very high rates 3 weeks after 1st dose.
First doses only provide less than 50% protection against the Indian variant, second doses provide well over 50% protection against the Indian variant.
However as I said unless we make double vaccinations compulsory we will never get 100% vaccination and in which case we may never unlock fully if you are not prepared to accept any cases at any time
I think you should stop making outlandish claims about efficacy for AZN or other vaccines when there has not been sufficient time to measure it. Even with a single dose it could be more effective than you calim both for infection and for hospitalisation/death. You are making definitive statements about a matter which is still very fluid. It amounts to 'fake news'. It matters little when you do this wrt polling but Covid is really much too serious for this sort of thing.
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
SSHHHH been nibbling at this price for weeks - the odd twenty here , twenty there - probably will be cut now
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
“Bollocks to ‘Bollocks to Brexit’” could be a winning line!
At the moment the rise in cases in England is largely being drive by what is happening in the North West - more than 40% of all cases over the past week were in this region.
And the North West rise seems to be about spreading to different areas rather than a genuine exponential rise in specific places - i.e. Bolton flattened out pretty quick.
Once it reaches any given community there is far less scope for it to grow before it runs out of hosts. Makes all the modelling of doubling times feel a bit redundant as the real question is where does it just plateau - if Bolton is representative, there's no big wave coming.
Oh, do learn some critical thinking. This isn't about a virus. The UK government labelled COVID-19 as not a 'high-consequence infectious disease' in March 2020 but proceeded to run an ad. campaign to terrify those without the ability to ask questions, e.g.
1) where are the bodies? ONS says 2020 was the worst year for deaths (age- & population-adjusted) since ...2008; most EU countries & Norway had less than that. 2) are undertakers booming? er, no. 3) why hire a modeller who got three predictions wrong and now a 4th., i.e. spring 2020 and doesn't know about seasonality or T cells? search me.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
Yes, I think you are right. I've certainly felt in the minority on here. A sort of @contrarian lite - which is worst than being contrarian full-fat, I fear.
It's a definite diet coke option. Neither Drakeford's best bottled Pembrokeshire spring water nor Lozza Fox's full fat corn syrup coke.
The lockdown groups aren't constant or well-defined, though. For example, I opposed the first lockdown because it would obviously just delay deaths at huge cost, but I supported the third one reluctantly because were vaccines being rolled out, so delay made sense.
And there are many different types and severities of lockdown. Even in the third lockdown, for instance, I thought closing schools and outdoor gyms was stupid.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
“Bollocks to ‘Bollocks to Brexit’” could be a winning line!
Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.
It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
That isn't true. First doses don't just make a "minor" difference, they make a huge difference. Effectiveness is only slightly reduced against Indian variant and Pfizer / Moderna have very high rates 3 weeks after 1st dose.
First doses only provide less than 50% protection against the Indian variant, second doses provide well over 50% protection against the Indian variant.
However as I said unless we make double vaccinations compulsory we will never get 100% vaccination and in which case we may never unlock fully if you are not prepared to accept any cases at any time
I think you should stop making outlandish claims about efficacy for AZN or other vaccines when there has not been sufficient time to measure it. Even with a single dose it could be more effective than you calim both for infection and for hospitalisation/death. You are making definitive statements about a matter which is still very fluid. It amounts to 'fake news'. It matters little when you do this wrt polling but Covid is really much too serious for this sort of thing.
Well if it turns out single doses are more effective than we thought, then even more reason to reopen on 21st June given 75% of UK adults have now received at least a single dose of the vaccine
I know its not political betting despite the Fa and Southgates best efforts with the knee thing but who do we think is a good punt for the Euros ? Germany at 9/1 and (as an outsider ) Turkey at 66/1 for me - Turkey seem a big price to beat Italy in the opening game at 7/1 with Billies.For those who dabble on the spreads selling 91 group stage goals with sporting index seems pretty risk free to me
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
“Bollocks to ‘Bollocks to Brexit’” could be a winning line!
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
Scotland seem determined to say that English visitors are not welcome. Not sure what the Scottish tourist industry has to say about that, especially when the furlough scheme ends.
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
Scotland seem determined to say that English visitors are not welcome. Not sure what the Scottish tourist industry has to say about that, especially when the furlough scheme ends.
Great news for Lake District landladies though!
It's nuts. The tours are all controlled - you can't just get off the ship and go for a wander - its tour buses or nothing. Meanwhile you can drive from Southampton to Greenock with no jabs and no tests - while the cruise ship pax have all had 3 tests and the majority 2 jabs.....
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
“Bollocks to ‘Bollocks to Brexit’” could be a winning line!
I'm searching on Hills but can't find the market.
Paddy
It's "updating odds"... through oddschecker and can't see on the main site either.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I was expecting this week to be massive due to people deferring jabs from school hols to this week.
It probably will be. Worth noting that tomorrow's figures are effectively the start of this week due to the way the data lags its always Wednesday that has the first big figures.
Plus half-term may still be going on for many people? Our kids have two inset days and are going back to school tomorrow.
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
Scotland seem determined to say that English visitors are not welcome. Not sure what the Scottish tourist industry has to say about that, especially when the furlough scheme ends.
Great news for Lake District landladies though!
It's nuts. The tours are all controlled - you can't just get off the ship and go for a wander - its tour buses or nothing. Meanwhile you can drive from Southampton to Greenock with no jabs and no tests - while the cruise ship pax have all had 3 tests and the majority 2 jabs.....
It's worse than nuts, it's shocking that devolution is being used in this way.
At the last GE the big two got 567 seats between them, Paddy Power have the current combined line at 535. Is that a bad price or is it because there might be fewer seats in total?
Here’s why… Lib Dem line 40.5 Currently 12
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
More chance of 21 June happening EARLY than LDs getting 40+ at the next GE!
“Bollocks to ‘Bollocks to Brexit’” could be a winning line!
I'm searching on Hills but can't find the market.
Paddy
It's "updating odds"... through oddschecker and can't see on the main site either.
I just saw it on OC haven’t backed it myself. Maybe it was still up from last GE and might not be a real price?
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
Scotland seem determined to say that English visitors are not welcome. Not sure what the Scottish tourist industry has to say about that, especially when the furlough scheme ends.
Great news for Lake District landladies though!
It's nuts. The tours are all controlled - you can't just get off the ship and go for a wander - its tour buses or nothing. Meanwhile you can drive from Southampton to Greenock with no jabs and no tests - while the cruise ship pax have all had 3 tests and the majority 2 jabs.....
It's worse than nuts, it's shocking that devolution is being used in this way.
Is it that shocking?
Its how Australia have handled the pandemic, good luck going from Melbourne to Sydney if there's any cases in Melbourne. And Sturgeon seems more in the grasp of Zero Covidians.
A cruise ship carrying only UK passengers on a tour of the British Isles has been barred from docking in Greenock with just days’ notice, travel agents said today.....
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
Scotland seem determined to say that English visitors are not welcome. Not sure what the Scottish tourist industry has to say about that, especially when the furlough scheme ends.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.
If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
snip.
Looks like you've called this right, Doug. I'm loath to argue with a 1.02 price.
But do you think they'll delay the whole thing or just some things?
I think they'll put the whole thing back to avoid mixed messaging.
Well that would be utterly absurd. Not to mention completely disastrous for the thousands of brides who have weddings booked from late June – and were promised a decision on 24 MAY.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
I had precisely a 3 week gap from first to second 23 April 68.2% (1sts) / 14th May 46.7% (2nds) local area vax %s. My other half will be 3 weeks since 1st in 2 days and hasn't been reinvited yet - we're at 60% seconds here now, she was at 73.1% firsts.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
It should, but it won't.
It shouldn't* but it will.
*based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
I think we'll know by June 21st whether this is a good idea or not. So I'm happy for govt to wait to decide, although I have limited faith they will make an evidence-based decision.
As to how high hospitalizations will rise -> it obviously depends on whether govt changes course. But I think numbers of patients being admitted to hospital is likely to exceed 300/day by end of the month and that could be a big underestimate.
300/day is an absolutely tiny figure though.
There are 1,200+ hospitals in the UK – so back of a fag packet maths, that's one admission every four days per hospital...
At the moment.
The forecast was for 300/day by the end of the month! Do you think we should remain locked down forever lest something bad happens at an undefined point in the future?
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
Yes I think the answer to the question must be different for someone who asks people to vote for them or who is employed at the taxpayer's expense. As someone who is neither of those things I can say that there are many non-British people whose welfare I care about more than that of many British people. I don't think that should be a particularly controversial view.
20 May 2021 - For people in cohorts 10 onwards, the agreed dose interval period remains as previously, at 77-84 days (11-12 weeks) as outlined in the Chief Medical Officer’s letter.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
HYUFD has pointed out that full-fat lockdownism is falling out of fashion – look at the stats in today's poll re: weddings and rule of six...
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
It should, but it won't.
It shouldn't* but it will.
*based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
I think we'll know by June 21st whether this is a good idea or not. So I'm happy for govt to wait to decide, although I have limited faith they will make an evidence-based decision.
As to how high hospitalizations will rise -> it obviously depends on whether govt changes course. But I think numbers of patients being admitted to hospital is likely to exceed 300/day by end of the month and that could be a big underestimate.
300/day is an absolutely tiny figure though.
There are 1,200+ hospitals in the UK – so back of a fag packet maths, that's one admission every four days per hospital...
At the moment.
The forecast was for 300/day by the end of the month! Do you think we should remain locked down forever lest something bad happens at an undefined point in the future?
It does seem a bit like the goalposts have moved. We locked down last Spring to save the NHS from being stampeded. Not to be unkind, but 125k of the most vulnerable have already died, and we have vaccinated the remaining vulnerable. It does seem like it’s crazy to keep restrictions
I guess ‘we aren’t locked down as we were last Spring’ would be the counter argument.
Personally, as my gf Is preggers and not up for the vaccine until the baby is born, I’m having to still be careful anyway, so not that bothered. But does seem a bit too cautious
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
Mine's 12 weeks later to the day, and given the remaining roll out is tied to constrained supplies of Pfizer I have very little expectation it will come forward. Once all 40+ have had their 2nd dose the Az supplies become pretty worthless and we're going to slow down quite severely.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
Have you tried (re-)booking your second on the website?
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
Wrong, today was the day the polls on reopening turned.
51% of voters overall and 55% of Tories want to end the rule of 6 for meeting inside on June 21st and voters by 46% to 42% want to end the 30 limit for wedding guests on June 21st too (including 52% of Tory voters wanting to end restrictions on weddings)
No me old mucker. You, king of the polls, have it wrong. Yes to those two measures (by a whisker).
Otherwise:
Masks in shops and public transport: 71% should remain in place longer Social Distancing in pubs and restaurants: 61% should remain in place longer Work from home: 56% should remain in place longer Limits on big sporting/entertainment events: 55% should remain in place longer
Masks in shops and public transport largely irrelevant, some social distancing too once the limit of indoor meeting is removed not much difference.
Some capacity limits on crowds at big events would also not make much difference either and most people will keep WFH if they work in an office for a few days a week indefinitely.
It is ending the 6 limit on people indoors and ending the limit on wedding guests that are the key changes most people want and that will make a real noticeable difference to their lives
Yes. I keep saying it – failing to lift the restrictions on weddings on 21 June is a very ugly, emotionally fraught, disaster waiting to happen. Brides in tears nationwide with massive holes in their bank accounts through unreturnable deposits and simply no prospect of getting another date this summer as everything is block-booked.
And on this, the government and its craven supporters have simply no defence: they promised brides a decision on 24 May and temporised. It is a gathering storm of epic – and very media-friendly – proportions.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
Have you tried (re-)booking your second on the website?
You have to cancel first before you can even see availability....which is annoying.
I don't really want to cancel and then find oh yes you can have it a week earlier if I drive 3hrs.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.
With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.
However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.
I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.
I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
Clapped on by the country. And many on here.
What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.
As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.
Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
I suspect furlough is making it too easy, but also the media and the likes of independent sage have followed the zero covid mantra scaring the public and even yesterday, saying it has be eliminated before lockdown is eased.
I have no idea how Boris squares this but he is PM and he has the call to make
I do not envy him
Judging the end of the furlough scheme is going to be a nightmare - there’s two million people still on it, and they all can’t be in the travel industry.
Some will be cleaners, caterers and retail workers in City centres - many of whom may not even be living in the U.K. at the moment.
Some will be at airlines, holiday reps, event workers etc, who will slowly find themselves back at work over the summer.
It’s clear that there’s a huge staff shortage in hospitality, government need to find a way to encourage people on furlough to quit and take a new job in the shortage areas.
The general emergency furlough scheme can’t really be replaced by an industry-specific one, without accusations of state aid, but at some point it has to finish and the recipients transferred to the considerably less generous UC.
There’s also a devolution aspect, with Scotland and Wales determined to keep restrictions in place for longer. Does the PM actively want to pick a fight with the First Ministers in Scotland and Wales, or will they try and blame the evil Englishman for unemployment? (Both can be true).
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
That can’t be right. I think you’ll find that they are in awe of our brilliant vaccination campaign and wishes they were lucky enough to be British.
They've basically caught up with where we were at the beginning of March.
They're at 65 doses per 100 people (on average) which is where we were at the end of March, beginning of April. That being said, because they are (now) basically all Pfizer-BioNTech/Moderna they are probably a couple of weeks further on as far as protection.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I was expecting this week to be massive due to people deferring jabs from school hols to this week.
It probably will be. Worth noting that tomorrow's figures are effectively the start of this week due to the way the data lags its always Wednesday that has the first big figures.
Plus half-term may still be going on for many people? Our kids have two inset days and are going back to school tomorrow.
That's a fair point actually – half-term lag might well be a thing. We'll see.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
Have you tried (re-)booking your second on the website?
You have to cancel first before you can even see availability....which is annoying.
Bassetlaw is completely outside the national system, you get a message to your phone inviting you for a jab then book through the GP's own health portal - like the Scottish system but with a text instead of a letter. I think it's led to efficiency and a quicker rollout than average.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
Have you tried (re-)booking your second on the website?
You have to cancel first before you can even see availability....which is annoying.
Bassetlaw is completely outside the national system, you get a message to your phone inviting you for a jab then book through the GP's own health portal - like the Scottish system but with a text instead of a letter. I think it's led to efficiency and a quicker rollout than average.
Most places have that as well...its not an either / or. The national system is additional and more flexible option to the GP led ones.
But if you book via the national system, you need to then do you second dose via it.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
But even leaving aside an imperialist past prioritizing domestic interests doesn't map to no obligation to poorer parts of the world. Eg if it's a choice between providing clean water for somewhere dirt poor or (same price) a 2nd weekly bin collection in Tory marginals, this is for me at the very least a toughie.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
Comments
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-57400378
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax
ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax
iii) Anti lockdown, antivax
iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people.
Group i) is the majority in the UK I think
Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I have no idea how Boris squares this but he is PM and he has the call to make
I do not envy him
Don't think we are too big or to clever to get burned here. Don't fall for all the 'mighty power of the UK treasury' bullsh*t.
We are f8cking vulnerable and getting more vulnerable by the week. If you think coronavirus is bad, just wait til you see what bankruptcy and penury do.
Otherwise:
Masks in shops and public transport: 71% should remain in place longer
Social Distancing in pubs and restaurants: 61% should remain in place longer
Work from home: 56% should remain in place longer
Limits on big sporting/entertainment events: 55% should remain in place longer
Once it reaches any given community there is far less scope for it to grow before it runs out of hosts. Makes all the modelling of doubling times feel a bit redundant as the real question is where does it just plateau - if Bolton is representative, there's no big wave coming.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/laurence-fox-mayor-reclaim-party-covid-b1824425.html
A confirmed vaccine sceptic, Mr Fox also said on Tuesday that he would refuse to get the Covid jab until after 2023 – when he claims all the tests needed to convince him of its safety would be completed.
Rewards for the compliant. Penalties for the non-compliant.
Soon find out!
Then they are surprised when The Head Count say no, we don't like that. And we are going to do our own thing.
Pandemic? Restrictions? Most people don't have a clue what's needed/proportionate/appropriate, nor understand (unless in hospitality industry - and even then, probably only if running the business) the costs. So they generally assume that the government, 'following the science' will do roughly the right thing.
But if Johnny Foreigner starts cavorting with all sorts in the street - or indeed in the home - while having had fewer vaccinations than us and with no apparent ill effects? Then I think people will, in general, start asking questions. At least, I hope so. It will make great newspaper front pages, comparing what the French are up to with what we're allowed to do.
Or, indeed, it could happen before if the media turn or Labour (or even, god help us, the Lib Dems) start asking serious questions. Do the opposition even have a position on 21 June? Do the LDs?
Having said all that, I do think there's more upside than downside for Johnson in sticking with 21 June and I do expect that still to - at least more or less - happen. A few restrictions maybe (keeping masks in some settings) or possibly a two week delay to check the numbers some more. But if it's not sorted come the summer holidays when people want to get out and do things and travel and see people then people are going to get pissed and while I think Johnson is not a very good leader, I don't believe him to be stupid.
Isn’t this a huuuuuuge unders play?
Some capacity limits on crowds at big events would also not make much difference either and most people will keep WFH if they work in an office for a few days a week indefinitely.
It is ending the 6 limit on people indoors and ending the limit on wedding guests that are the key changes most people want and that will make a real noticeable difference to their lives
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
June 21st is the summer solstice; the second day of my forties. A time to go forth into the world unburdened by restrictions. The right time.
The ones *below* proletarii
They had absolutely no political rights.
There's also the point that, by 2023, with the high vaccination levels we look likely to achieve here, the risks from Covid will likely be so low that there may be higher risks from having a needle of saline stabbed into your arm!
More likely 2023 is just another way of saying never while trying not to say that directly. Who is going to ask him in 2023 whether he got a jab in the end?
It said three quarters of passengers on board or due to board have received both their Covid vaccines and been triple tested, and the crew vaccinated and tested.
SPAA president Joanne Dooey said: “We’re now facing the situation where Scottish passengers who joined the cruise in Liverpool are barred from setting foot in their own country.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/uk-only-cruise-ship-msc-virtuosa-barred-from-docking-in-greenock-3265549
1) where are the bodies? ONS says 2020 was the worst year for deaths (age- & population-adjusted) since ...2008; most EU countries & Norway had less than that.
2) are undertakers booming? er, no.
3) why hire a modeller who got three predictions wrong and now a 4th., i.e. spring 2020 and doesn't know about seasonality or T cells? search me.
'Zero COVID' is better called totalitarianism ... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9433867/PROFESSOR-ROBERT-DINGWALL-says-resist-biosecurity-state.html
But I'm sure the Communists on SAGE or NERVTAG will be delighted.
And there are many different types and severities of lockdown. Even in the third lockdown, for instance, I thought closing schools and outdoor gyms was stupid.
Vote Kim stickers. The leaflet is not standard lab colours, its a pinky colour. etc.
See, for example:
https://twitter.com/kimleadbeater/status/1401631523309338634/photo/3
All seems a good idea in current circumstances. Will it be enough to focus on her as a local personality?
I'm on at ≈ 2.8 and i notice the price is now out at 3.6
That seems long to me.
Great news for Lake District landladies though!
https://twitter.com/AshtonLamont/status/1401905890316500998
Plus half-term may still be going on for many people? Our kids have two inset days and are going back to school tomorrow.
Its how Australia have handled the pandemic, good luck going from Melbourne to Sydney if there's any cases in Melbourne. And Sturgeon seems more in the grasp of Zero Covidians.
Great news for Lake District landladies though!
Getting back to normal
https://twitter.com/mspliz/status/1402164760087515136?s=20
Might be a bit of an mRNA slowdown...
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/03/C1254-covid-19-vaccination-programme-faqs-on-second-dose-v2.pdf
I know the Welsh economy is largely govt subsidy anyway so perhaps he doesn’t need to care about the actual economy.
I guess ‘we aren’t locked down as we were last Spring’ would be the counter argument.
Personally, as my gf Is preggers and not up for the vaccine until the baby is born, I’m having to still be careful anyway, so not that bothered. But does seem a bit too cautious
https://order-order.com/2021/06/08/exclusive-woke-oxford-students-vote-to-take-down-colonial-queens-portrait/
And on this, the government and its craven supporters have simply no defence: they promised brides a decision on 24 May and temporised. It is a gathering storm of epic – and very media-friendly – proportions.
I don't really want to cancel and then find oh yes you can have it a week earlier if I drive 3hrs.
Some will be cleaners, caterers and retail workers in City centres - many of whom may not even be living in the U.K. at the moment.
Some will be at airlines, holiday reps, event workers etc, who will slowly find themselves back at work over the summer.
It’s clear that there’s a huge staff shortage in hospitality, government need to find a way to encourage people on furlough to quit and take a new job in the shortage areas.
The general emergency furlough scheme can’t really be replaced by an industry-specific one, without accusations of state aid, but at some point it has to finish and the recipients transferred to the considerably less generous UC.
There’s also a devolution aspect, with Scotland and Wales determined to keep restrictions in place for longer. Does the PM actively want to pick a fight with the First Ministers in Scotland and Wales, or will they try and blame the evil Englishman for unemployment? (Both can be true).
They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally
B - their own interaction with vaccines
C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
In the UK they have ticked down gently in the last 2-3 days.
Just straws in the wind. Maybe.
But if you book via the national system, you need to then do you second dose via it.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.