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The Boundary changes – the winners and losers – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    edited June 2021

    I'm having an issue with my YT Music app that its pausing for about 5 seconds or so repeatedly. Sometimes a few times per song, then the song comes back. Never had it happen before, makes it unlistenable.

    Any idea if this is related to the CDN outage?

    Young Tories?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,221
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57400378?at_custom4=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom3=@BBCPolitics&at_custom2=twitter

    This isn't going forwards.

    It is going backwards.

    At a rate of knots.

    Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in

    This is what I think too.

    However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
    The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
    Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
    Yes, I’d agree and also worth noting hospitality is often younger people’s first route into work. It is important on so many levels.
    My neighbour's son's route into work is at Moss Bros in Macarthur Glen.

    He looks really smart, but they made him buy his suit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021
    The DUP name Paul Givan as NI's new First Minister, a rather younger and more telegenic figure than Poots it suggests Poots is more interested in running things behind the scenes for the DUP and will let Givan be the frontman
    https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-06-08/paul-givan-announced-as-new-first-minister
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    It should, but it won't.
    It shouldn't* but it will.

    *based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
    How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
    I was just comparing the current 'rise' to wave 2 in September.

    Then, from the minimum point of English hospital admissions (45) it took 14 days to double.

    This time round they hit a minimum on May 13th (7 day average basis) and 14 days later they'd managed a rise of under 20% rather than 100%.

    Really no sign of anything very scary coming.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2021

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238

    Would Britons support or oppose a campaign to re-join the EU?

    Oppose: 39%
    Support: 36%
    Neither: 17%

    55% of respondents aged 18 to 24 would support, whereas 66% of those aged 65+ would oppose.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402241533294702609?s=20

    Does the British public think the UK made the right or wrong decision in deciding to leave the EU in 2016?

    Right decision: 44%
    Wrong decision: 42%

    70% of 2019 Conservative voters and 23% of 2019 Labour voters say it was the right decision.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402234097179762693?s=20

    So, of those expressing a preference:
    Would Britons support or oppose a campaign to re-join the EU?

    Oppose: 39/75 = 52 %
    Support: 36/75 = 48 %

    (wanders off to find a cool quiet place, weeping quietly as I go...)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    The hated Peter Hitchens has been pointing it out for years - once you allow ‘temporary measures’ to be taken, it’s a tough place to get out of
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
    The cash amount will fall as GNI does, by the magic of percentages.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,534

    Would Britons support or oppose a campaign to re-join the EU?

    Oppose: 39%
    Support: 36%
    Neither: 17%

    55% of respondents aged 18 to 24 would support, whereas 66% of those aged 65+ would oppose.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402241533294702609?s=20

    Does the British public think the UK made the right or wrong decision in deciding to leave the EU in 2016?

    Right decision: 44%
    Wrong decision: 42%

    70% of 2019 Conservative voters and 23% of 2019 Labour voters say it was the right decision.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402234097179762693?s=20

    Which all shows how difficult this is for Labour, at least for now. There are governments who enthusiastically do what you support, those who keenly do what you oppose. That's life. But tough to support is the Labour government that is committed to a Brexit it doesn't want and that its voters don't want. That is no place from which to gather converts; hard enough to keep your own existing loyal supporters.

    Jezza opposed nuclear weapons and monarchy but had no plan to remove them in government. How many pro deterrence and pro HM the Queen people leapt out of bed to vote for that? Labour's Brexit position is like that and remains dire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    They will never get all people in priority groups double vaccinated unless vaccination is made compulsory, so as over 50% of UK adults have now been double dosed and more in the priority groups we either open up in a fortnight's time or we will never fully reopen without compulsory vaccination.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    They don't need to wait for the data, they have the data.

    He doesn't need to break from the G7 to deal with this, the decision to proceed with unlocking can be announced on Monday following the G7.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    The thing is that rises in cases based purely on case number are self perpetuating. Any hint of a rise in cases and it leads to more people getting tested (as of choice or under “surge testing” arrangements. So inevitably you then get “spikes” until this effect wears off.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    Is the Delta variant what used to be known as the so called Indian Variant?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    I see Cummings has re-emerged on Twitter to argue that few in government can be doing a very good job since they don’t appear to be working obsessively to tackle the crisis.

    His view is a strange one. Not sure how many fiftysomethings can genuinely work a year without a day off and not lose effectiveness. Over working for March-May 2020, absolutely, after that finding a balance is better.
    I imagine that his real point is “look at how lazy Boris is....!”, but being so intelligent realises that he needs to generalise his arguments so it doesn’t look merely like sour grapes?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2021

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
    The cash amount will fall as GNI does, by the magic of percentages.
    So what? That's irrelevant.

    The deficit has expanded much, much much more than the change in GNI and will continue to do so for years to come. Even if the economy is back to pre-crisis levels by the end of this year, the deficit won't be.

    If you don't want this cutting to help get the deficit back under control then perhaps say what you'd prefer cutting instead: welfare? Support? NHS? Investment?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,801
    Miss Vance, support level for rejoining the EU is pretty high.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Philip Blond on why Red Toryism is now triumphant in the UK

    https://twitter.com/Phillip_Blond/status/1402248907577516034?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    Do they have a more responsible media not bigging up Independent SAGE idiots all the time?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
    The cash amount will fall as GNI does, by the magic of percentages.
    Thanks to the pandemic, the interest cash paid by the government will rise, also by the magic of percentages.

    Frankly 0.7% of GDP is a sneaky and misleading way of defining the commitment anyway. Most people wouldn't twig that it actually means more like 1.5% of government spending.

    This is spending area where the view of the public is overwhelming regardless of party affiliation, and the fact a bunch of smug MPs think it's their legacy shouldn't be enough to ride rough-shod over the views of the people expected to pay for it.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    I'm 43, not in a risk category, and get my 2nd jab in 2 weeks. Anyone in groups 1 to 9 should have been double-jabbed by now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    But they are the more decent Conservatives who are standing by the Conservative manifesto promise. The revolting Conservatives are Johnson and his Gang.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    Looks like you've called this right, Doug. I'm loath to argue with a 1.02 price.

    But do you think they'll delay the whole thing or just some things?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    Do they have a more responsible media not bigging up Independent SAGE idiots all the time?
    A more evenly trusted, less authoritarian government perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    That is pisspoor.

    The surge is the dog that did not bark.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
    The cash amount will fall as GNI does, by the magic of percentages.
    The bit I don’t get is what remedy people are after. The Gvt financial year runs to 31 March so I would submit that’s it would already be impossible to reinstate enough (meaningful and not just invented) projects to get back up to 0.7% in year. To be honest I’d have my doubts about the practicality of getting back up all the way to 0.7% next year without accidentally letting in a lot of nonsense projects. Growing a capital budget is tricky.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
    That isn't true. First doses don't just make a "minor" difference, they make a huge difference. Effectiveness is only slightly reduced against Indian variant and Pfizer / Moderna have very high rates 3 weeks after 1st dose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920

    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ClippP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's a no from Downing Street.

    No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.

    "No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900

    Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
    If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
    So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
    If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
    And the 365 Conservative MPs elected on their manifesto pledge of 0.7 per cent: are they the opposition too?
    No. That's been very rightly put on hold because the country can't afford it due to a pandemic. You might have heard of it.

    The law committing to the 0.7 had an exception all along if it became unaffordable, it has.
    The cash amount will fall as GNI does, by the magic of percentages.
    So what? That's irrelevant.

    The deficit has expanded much, much much more than the change in GNI and will continue to do so for years to come. Even if the economy is back to pre-crisis levels by the end of this year, the deficit won't be.

    If you don't want this cutting to help get the deficit back under control then perhaps say what you'd prefer cutting instead: welfare? Support? NHS? Investment?
    I'd prefer economic growth but if you want a cut, how about Boris's fantasy yacht?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    Indeed. This is exactly why I have been pushing for faster lifting since January. It was clear that the zero covidistas were going to push the other way, so binning temporary measures needed to be fought for. Sadly too many were too willing to acquiesce, twitch curtains, sneer at 'holibobs' - it is no surprise the Govt are not feeling pressured.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    I for one am shocked that a state bureacracy used to dealing with retired 'customers' is failing to adapt when it's target demographic is now busy during the hours of 9-5, Monday to Friday.

    If this was a real emergency rather than a pantomime farce they would be vaccinating up to 11pm each night, to make it easily available to the people they're targetting.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    Philip Blond on why Red Toryism is now triumphant in the UK

    https://twitter.com/Phillip_Blond/status/1402248907577516034?s=20

    He links this photo to the tweet so people can read the article

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021

    HYUFD said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
    Not quite.
    75% of UK adults have now had their first dose and about half have had their second dose.

    However without making vaccination compulsory we will never reach 100%, so what is the acceptable level of second doses before we unlock, 60%, 75%, 80%, 99%? If you lean to the latter as I expect most of SAGE do then we will never fully unlock

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    HYUFD said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
    That isn't true. First doses don't just make a "minor" difference, they make a huge difference. Effectiveness is only slightly reduced against Indian variant and Pfizer / Moderna have very high rates 3 weeks after 1st dose.
    Exactly.

    The figures Hancock released yesterday should have been enough to convince the Govt that we could open without any real problems for the NHS.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    What concerns me here is how late in the day it is, economically. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already talking about a 'normalisation' in policy because of rising inflationary pressures in the US, where they are opening up and some states are already completely open.

    There is simply no way the UK could resist such a move if it happened. Johnson and co could be quickly utterly swpet by market movements. Countries that have their heads up their backsides fighting yesterday's battles are going to get left behind.

    Is that going to be Britain? I really hope not.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    That is pisspoor.

    The surge is the dog that did not bark.
    Also shows you how anecdotal evidence can be totally wrong e.g. those long queues for vaccines of younger people. That's great to see, but it is indicative of the actual numbers.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Hoyle is a lightweight.

    He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.

    At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".

    If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.

    They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
    During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.

    In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.

    An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
    I suspect Cameron's aide was rather more than philosophical - probably closer to what they (and Cameron) truly thought.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    President Macron is SLAPPED in the face during walkabout in France: Man wearing 'Down with Macronia' T-shirt is bundled to the ground and arrested

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    It should, but it won't.
    It shouldn't* but it will.

    *based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
    How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
    I think we'll know by June 21st whether this is a good idea or not.
    So I'm happy for govt to wait to decide, although I have limited faith they will make an evidence-based decision.

    As to how high hospitalizations will rise -> it obviously depends on whether govt changes course.
    But I think numbers of patients being admitted to hospital is likely to exceed 300/day by end of the month and that could be a big underestimate.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920

    Can I suggest a compromise for Overseas Aid to soothe the Wets?

    How about instead of changing our target to 0.5% for the next few years then returning to 0.7% we instead promise to match the EU's percentage?

    Surely the Wets can't object to that?

    The Wets did not write the Conservative manifesto which included the .7% pledge. That was team Boris. (As an aside, the word stigma is used dozens of times. What's all that about?)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    That is pisspoor.

    The surge is the dog that did not bark.
    Also shows you how anecdotal evidence can be totally wrong e.g. those long queues for vaccines of younger people. That's great to see, but it is indicative of the actual numbers.
    I wonder if Pfizer and Moderna supplies are a little low?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    Mortimer said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    That is pisspoor.

    The surge is the dog that did not bark.
    Also shows you how anecdotal evidence can be totally wrong e.g. those long queues for vaccines of younger people. That's great to see, but it is indicative of the actual numbers.
    I wonder if Pfizer and Moderna supplies are a little low?
    Better not be, I still need my 2nd shot of the old Bill Gates Skynet version....
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    President Macron is SLAPPED in the face during walkabout in France: Man wearing 'Down with Macronia' T-shirt is bundled to the ground and arrested

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html

    How the hell was someone able to do that to a Head of State? Sack his his security.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    Why? Seems about right for a Tuesday announcement.

    The comparable figures last month excluding Bank Holiday weekends were: 455k, 365k and 347k - so 420k is above average.

    Plus of course when it comes to first doses the over 30s were being finished off, its now been opened up to under thirties.
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    Pulpstar said:

    Interestingly this board is wildly to the "open up" side of the majority of public opinion which favours strict controls, particularly for other people ;)

    Strict controls "for other people"
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    Well, we know that the UK has been dependant on AZ for the bulk of its vaccination for a while, and that we've decided to try and avoid its use in younger people. And that some of the second-stage vaccines (especially J+J) haven't really delivered the promised numbers. So we're possibly in a bit of a pickle.

    This is from the man who tries to make sense of the public numbers (the weekly allocation to Scotland, mainly) to get the behind the scenes numbers;

    https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1402250688000925700

    6,552,070

    Ruh-roh.
    :

    < 6,580,000 - Last week's extra mRNA clawed back; expect a fall-off after this week
    ~ 6,680,000 - Back to usual service; two more big weeks
    > 6,780,000 - Higher mRNA ongoing; new world

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    President Macron is SLAPPED in the face during walkabout in France: Man wearing 'Down with Macronia' T-shirt is bundled to the ground and arrested

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html

    How the hell was someone able to do that to a Head of State? Sack his his security.
    He surely should have been shot.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    What concerns me here is how late in the day it is, economically. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already talking about a 'normalisation' in policy because of rising inflationary pressures in the US, where they are opening up and some states are already completely open.

    There is simply no way the UK could resist such a move if it happened. Johnson and co could be quickly utterly swpet by market movements. Countries that have their heads up their backsides fighting yesterday's battles are going to get left behind.

    Is that going to be Britain? I really hope not.
    Oh cut the crap!

    Yellen is saying that while Biden is seeking another $6 trillion in expenditure.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    isam said:


    HYUFD said:

    Philip Blond on why Red Toryism is now triumphant in the UK

    https://twitter.com/Phillip_Blond/status/1402248907577516034?s=20

    He links this photo to the tweet so people can read the article

    It comes as a surprise that the government is spending more on infrastructure than any time since the 1970s.

    By infrastructure, do they mean Dido Harding’s track and trace programme?

    Wake me up when our level of R&D spend (both govt and private) reaches G7 comparator levels.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    What concerns me here is how late in the day it is, economically. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already talking about a 'normalisation' in policy because of rising inflationary pressures in the US, where they are opening up and some states are already completely open.

    There is simply no way the UK could resist such a move if it happened. Johnson and co could be quickly utterly swpet by market movements. Countries that have their heads up their backsides fighting yesterday's battles are going to get left behind.

    Is that going to be Britain? I really hope not.
    Oh cut the crap!

    Yellen is saying that while Biden is seeking another $6 trillion in expenditure.
    Indeed. If we are being swept in any direction it is going to be towards higher expenditure as part of a G7 effort to get the world economy moving again. Those wanting a free ride on others expenditure whilst trying to repair their own balance sheet (Germany immediately comes to mind) will be in extreme disfavour with the White House.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021

    HYUFD said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    It is second doses that are the key to beat the Indian variant, first doses only make a minor difference, the vast majority of over 30s have now had their first dose already
    That isn't true. First doses don't just make a "minor" difference, they make a huge difference. Effectiveness is only slightly reduced against Indian variant and Pfizer / Moderna have very high rates 3 weeks after 1st dose.
    First doses only provide less than 50% protection against the Indian variant, second doses provide well over 50% protection against the Indian variant.

    However as I said unless we make double vaccinations compulsory we will never get 100% vaccination and in which case we may never unlock fully if you are not prepared to accept any cases at any time
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    It should, but it won't.
    It shouldn't* but it will.

    *based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
    How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
    I posted yesterday and will again today. In the SW of England (including Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire, Bristol etc we have 13 patients in hospital with covid, one of which is on a ventilator. Yes, thirteen, and only one on a ventilator. We are lucky down here that there have been no big Delta outbreaks, but if we really are held back on the 21st there ought to be outrage.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    It should, but it won't.
    It shouldn't* but it will.

    *based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
    How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
    I think we'll know by June 21st whether this is a good idea or not.
    So I'm happy for govt to wait to decide, although I have limited faith they will make an evidence-based decision.

    As to how high hospitalizations will rise -> it obviously depends on whether govt changes course.
    But I think numbers of patients being admitted to hospital is likely to exceed 300/day by end of the month and that could be a big underestimate.
    300/day is an absolutely tiny figure though.

    There are 1,200+ hospitals in the UK – so back of a fag packet maths, that's one admission every four days per hospital...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,815

    President Macron is SLAPPED in the face during walkabout in France: Man wearing 'Down with Macronia' T-shirt is bundled to the ground and arrested

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html

    TANGOED
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    As I have said before it is staggering that the media have not been picking up on this disappointment. The government is content with the general consensus that it has done brilliantly in getting people vaccinated and have no interest at all in any story line which undermines that perception. The opposition are once again nowhere to be seen.

    There have clearly either been a series of set backs and disappointments in terms of delivery of vaccines or we are facing mass anti-vax sentiment in younger age groups but no one is asking about any of it.

    I suppose we can just add this to the pile of failures on the part of the media in this pandemic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,689

    President Macron is SLAPPED in the face during walkabout in France: Man wearing 'Down with Macronia' T-shirt is bundled to the ground and arrested

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html

    He shouted a royalist slogan. Perhaps the next French Revolution will be to restore the monarchy again.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    DavidL said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    As I have said before it is staggering that the media have not been picking up on this disappointment. The government is content with the general consensus that it has done brilliantly in getting people vaccinated and have no interest at all in any story line which undermines that perception. The opposition are once again nowhere to be seen.

    There have clearly either been a series of set backs and disappointments in terms of delivery of vaccines or we are facing mass anti-vax sentiment in younger age groups but no one is asking about any of it.

    I suppose we can just add this to the pile of failures on the part of the media in this pandemic.
    The media today specialise in not reporting the important things the public would like to know about, and instead lecturing people on things they don't want to hear about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    Is the Delta variant what used to be known as the so called Indian Variant?
    It's like Megan Stammers, here one day; unidentified the next.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,815
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    419,009 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 89,639 1st doses / 244,107 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 17,545 / 30,944
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,972 / 21,338
    NI 3,785 / 9,679

    Not good enough. Look how few first doses....something really isn't right behind the scenes.

    As I have said before it is staggering that the media have not been picking up on this disappointment. The government is content with the general consensus that it has done brilliantly in getting people vaccinated and have no interest at all in any story line which undermines that perception. The opposition are once again nowhere to be seen.

    There have clearly either been a series of set backs and disappointments in terms of delivery of vaccines or we are facing mass anti-vax sentiment in younger age groups but no one is asking about any of it.

    I suppose we can just add this to the pile of failures on the part of the media in this pandemic.
    The media today specialise in not reporting the important things the public would like to know about, and instead lecturing people on things they don't want to hear about.
    Or Voxpop type articles about why some individual gets stressed about something mundane
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,796
    edited June 2021
    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,689

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    No wonder it’s slow if they’ve got journalists doing it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    isam said:
    This is a big story. Suggests that vaxports are back and we can expect to hear more about them on Monday...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    Sorry your call has been placed in a queue, your call is important to us, but all our operators are currently busy trawling through sports stars social media accounts....to see if they said a naughty when they were 12.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    isam said:
    This is a big story. Suggests that vaxports are back and we can expect to hear more about them on Monday...
    More likely to be inefficient government/civil service inertia - the head has clearly signalled they're off but there will be limbs busily working on them regardless.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.

    As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.

    Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Fans might be asked to chant ‘England, England’ or ‘Kick it out’ as the players take the knee, in order to drown out the boos

    https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12327703/england-fans-urged-to-drown-out-the-boos-in-new-kick-it-out-and-football-supporters-association-campaign
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    kjh said:

    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
    Arguably a sociopath given what lockdown is doing to society.

    Talking of which pretty much every shop in the upper part of the Royal Mile in Edinburgh has large yellow posters in it today complaining about how the SNP have betrayed the Scottish retail tourist industry. There is a demand for more financial support. Not the sort of thing Nicola likes to see but the present level of restrictions make profitable trading for these smallish shops almost impossible.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,419
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57400378?at_custom4=twitter&amp;at_medium=custom7&amp;at_campaign=64&amp;at_custom1=[post+type]&amp;at_custom3=@BBCPolitics&amp;at_custom2=twitter

    This isn't going forwards.

    It is going backwards.

    At a rate of knots.

    Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in

    This is what I think too.

    However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
    The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
    Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
    Yes, I’d agree and also worth noting hospitality is often younger people’s first route into work. It is important on so many levels.
    My neighbour's son's route into work is at Moss Bros in Macarthur Glen.

    He looks really smart, but they made him buy his suit.
    That’s one way of driving sales !!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    Is the Delta variant what used to be known as the so called Indian Variant?
    Deltan Take-aways are wot used to be known as Indian Take-aways.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited June 2021
    isam said:

    Fans might be asked to chant ‘England, England’ or ‘Kick it out’ as the players take the knee, in order to drown out the boos

    https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12327703/england-fans-urged-to-drown-out-the-boos-in-new-kick-it-out-and-football-supporters-association-campaign

    Fingers in their ears...la la la la la la....people who want to boo, will instead boo at a different time or they will signal their objection in other ways.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    kjh said:

    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
    It's a wanton lack of caution.

    Spending £10bn on T-rex attack insurance is not cautious, it's insanity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    maaarsh said:

    isam said:
    This is a big story. Suggests that vaxports are back and we can expect to hear more about them on Monday...
    More likely to be inefficient government/civil service inertia - the head has clearly signalled they're off but there will be limbs busily working on them regardless.
    Well supporters at the Euros will have to use them – so that's quite a major outcome from mere inertia...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    maaarsh said:

    kjh said:

    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
    It's a wanton lack of caution.

    Spending £10bn on T-rex attack insurance is not cautious, it's insanity.
    It's worked pretty well so far. Not a single attack since we took it out!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    isam said:

    Fans might be asked to chant ‘England, England’ or ‘Kick it out’ as the players take the knee, in order to drown out the boos

    https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12327703/england-fans-urged-to-drown-out-the-boos-in-new-kick-it-out-and-football-supporters-association-campaign

    Cringe
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    MrEd said:

    Hoyle is a lightweight.

    He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.

    At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".

    If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.

    They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
    During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.

    In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.

    An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
    It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.

    Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?

    Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.

    As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.

    Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
    The freedom-loving French are going to beat us out of this thing aren't they? Boozy yacht parties on the the Cote while we are still shuffling around Sainsbury's wine aisle in masks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    edited June 2021
    maaarsh said:

    isam said:
    This is a big story. Suggests that vaxports are back and we can expect to hear more about them on Monday...
    More likely to be inefficient government/civil service inertia - the head has clearly signalled they're off but there will be limbs busily working on them regardless.
    It's already out (Attached to the NHS app), just not publicised.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    It should, but it won't.
    It shouldn't* but it will.

    *based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
    How high and how soon do you expect hospitalisation numbers to reach?
    I posted yesterday and will again today. In the SW of England (including Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire, Bristol etc we have 13 patients in hospital with covid, one of which is on a ventilator. Yes, thirteen, and only one on a ventilator. We are lucky down here that there have been no big Delta outbreaks, but if we really are held back on the 21st there ought to be outrage.
    Yes there ought.

    I've been keeping daily stats and looking back to 10 weeks ago the average daily new hospitalisations was 370 and average daily deaths was 62. Now those averages are 124 and 8.5.

    If we don't adhere to 21 June we will have gone through these phases: Authoritarian measures to, 1) Protect the NHS, 2) Minimise cases even though the NHS is coping fine to 3) keeping authoritarian measures just in case something crops us.

    When is someone in power going to challenge the legality of this?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    isam said:
    This is a big story. Suggests that vaxports are back and we can expect to hear more about them on Monday...
    More likely to be inefficient government/civil service inertia - the head has clearly signalled they're off but there will be limbs busily working on them regardless.
    It's already out (Attached to your NHS app), just not publicised.
    Yes - went active weeks ago.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,796
    maaarsh said:

    kjh said:

    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
    It's a wanton lack of caution.

    Spending £10bn on T-rex attack insurance is not cautious, it's insanity.
    I need to check my policy. What do you think it will come under? Presumably not pets, but possibly vermin.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.

    As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.

    Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
    The freedom-loving French are going to beat us out of this thing aren't they? Boozy yacht parties on the the Cote while we are still shuffling around Sainsbury's wine aisle in masks.
    Oh how we laughed at the Europeans with their gallic/germanic ways and sensible approach to the freedom of their citizens.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?

    A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Precisely. There's about 100 vaccinations happening for every infection - the country is simply running out of people who can get sick and die from infection faster than the virus can spread.

    If any infections are happening due to people refusing the vaccine then they've made their choice freely and it should be accepted.
    The Government has accepted that one dose is not very effective against the, now dominant, Delta variant. They hope to have all people in JCVI 1-9 double dosed by 21 June. It takes 2 weeks for the increased dosing to become effective and then another two weeks for the data to be looked at. There is no reason for Johnson to take the risk of opening up on 21 June. He won't, he's got the G7 this weekend and will be preoccupied by that, he's likely already made the decision.
    Looks like you've called this right, Doug. I'm loath to argue with a 1.02 price.

    But do you think they'll delay the whole thing or just some things?
    I think they'll put the whole thing back to avoid mixed messaging.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited June 2021
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlistairM said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:
    21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
    Preposterous.

    Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.

    There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
    As a country over the last year we have been taught to focus almost entirely on the number of daily cases as that was the earliest indication of problems that we would have had. Up until fairly recently that was still the case.

    With such large numbers having been vaccinated and all the data indicating that those with even single jabs have much reduced severity, cases are no longer the early warning sign that they once were.

    However I have several contacts on Facebook plotting charts of case numbers in various areas going up and the bedwetting that comes with it. They are very keen to use case numbers as their evidence but don't seem to ever look at hospitalisations or deaths. Deaths are still miniscule compared to other causes and hospitalisations are only going up very slightly. Given we are doing millions of extra jabs every week the situation is only going to get better.

    I see no evidence that we are going to be swamped by hospitalisations.

    I see no reason given this to delay 21st June. However, the government will be under increasing pressure to delay due to the rise in cases. If they do so it will be like imposing restrictions due to an increase in flu cases.
    Clapped on by the country. And many on here.

    What's that? We all want to open up? But we have applauded every restrictive measure the government has introduced to date. The government has accepted your authority to do what it wants now and the fact that the PB Govt Covid fans have changed their minds means not a jot to them. They will likely delay full opening and perhaps the next time a government embarks upon this path there will be more questioning along the way.
    You may be right, but why has it turned out differently in most Western democracies? They had similar legal restrictions imposed, but seem more willing to get back to normal, despite us having the vaccination advantage. Why?
    No idea but the opinion polls are one indicator.

    As evidenced on here, and as @Mortimer points out, every new restriction has been met by increased popularity and incidence of curtain twitching and ridiculing those who want to leave their own country.

    Look at the polls today. We are lapping this shit up.
    Wrong, today was the day the polls on reopening turned.

    51% of voters overall and 55% of Tories want to end the rule of 6 for meeting inside on June 21st and voters by 46% to 42% want to end the 30 limit for wedding guests on June 21st too (including 52% of Tory voters wanting to end restrictions on weddings)

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xoc1ldh9zg/TheTimes_Reopening_210603.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Hoyle is a lightweight.

    He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.

    At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".

    If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.

    They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
    During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.

    In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.

    An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
    It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.

    Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?

    Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
    Oh yes. But it was interesting to see the reaction of people to the idea that the flexibility of allegiance works both ways.

    It is interesting how many apparently "liberal" people think that the social contract works like this -

    1) The Government changes the contract. You'd better pray we don't change it further.
    2) The people just accept the above.

    For example, some lawyers of my acquaintance were beyond horrified when, in response to their ideas that petty crime should not be prosecuted, I gave some examples of privatised law enforcement that occurred as a result.

    IIRC some people here got quite upset at one example I gave - a hedge fund type reacted to the refusal of the police to er... police by hiring his own private plod to patrol his village.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,815
    DavidL said:

    maaarsh said:

    kjh said:

    maaarsh said:

    22 positive tests in Wales
    0 deaths

    The Drake’s No Fake

    No one has died for 2 weeks and he still wants restrictions. He's a psychopath.
    I don't think that quite fits the definition of a psychopath! Over cautious maybe?
    It's a wanton lack of caution.

    Spending £10bn on T-rex attack insurance is not cautious, it's insanity.
    It's worked pretty well so far. Not a single attack since we took it out!
    Try telling that to Jeff Goldblum and Richard Attenborough
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?

    A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
    Are people getting vaccinated because they wanted freedom or because they didn’t want to get Covid do you reckon ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?

    A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
    That is indeed contrarian @contrarian . To achieve freedom we need a very high level of vaccination and we are yet to achieve it.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    isam said:

    The slowdown in vaccination is a BIG problem.

    Calling journalists to do their effing job...

    Could one reason be that it is becoming clearer that vaccination is not buying people freedom?

    A year in lockdown and and two vaccinations later, you cannot travel abroad. At all. Not now and probably not this year.
    Are people getting vaccinated because they wanted freedom or because they didn’t want to get Covid do you reckon ?
    Well I got vaccinated and I've never been remotely afraid of covid.
This discussion has been closed.