Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
To be honest I don't really know what the rule are anymore. I and pretty much everyone I know is just doing what they want. Any rules businesses have to put in place are increasingly seen as an annoying inconvenience.
I see the the new doughnut seat encompassing Kenilworth and Southam (home of a well known contributor on here) has no name. K & S will do I guess or Warwickshire South
Oxfordshire is interesting for Tory infighting. Quite a lot of change in order to accomodate a new seat. The most 'new' one is Bicester. Ben Wallace might be eyeing it.
In order to reduce the oversized Witney seat, the gentrified Lib Dem and Labour parts north and west of Oxford have been added to either Banbury or the new Bicester seat. It leaves an even more rock solid Witney seat, but the impact on the other two might be interesting. Banbury is probably Tory enough to withstand the arrival of Labour held Chipping Norton and the Lib Dem stronghold of Charlbury.
However the new Bicester seat accomodates a chunk of the Oxford diaspora - liberal minded people living in the villages outside the town. Lib Dem areas like Eynsham, Stonesfield and Woodstock are added to Kidlington and Bicester itself, both of which have track records of not voting Tory. The new seat is still Tory but maybe not overwhelmingly so, but, unlike the old Witney seat, there is only one clear challenger - the Lib Dems.
If I was the Lib Dems, I would be happy with the outcome. Although if they were able to bunt Charlbury from Banbury into Bicester as well, it would be even better
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
Precisely. The Government could make the decision on 14 June for 21 June, or they could make the decision on 14 June for 14 July. One gives a week's notice, the other a month's notice, but the month's notice one guarantees the loss of trade from 21 June to 14 July so is the extra notice worth that?
Another possibility would have been make a decision on 1 June for 21 June of course. Or ended legal restrictions at the time the likes of Denmark did.
There was no data on 1 June for 21 June so no if you're following the data then that's not viable.
Besides, the same problem still exists. If the data was there for 1 June to say its safe (incidentally I think it was) then why wait until 21 June? Why not say on 1 June "this is safe, reopen from 8 June"? Why waste 8 - 21 June?
Same issue still exists. There will always be a conflict between letting people reopen ASAP and giving as much notice as possible. The two things run counter to each other.
Of course there was data on 1 June for 21 June, it is less data than we have on the 14 June but it is still lots of data.
The govt decision to leave it to one week between decision and action is an arbitrary choice which is fair to question and criticise, not an inviolable law of mathematics or data.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
As someone normally on the side of what the reactionaries call the woke, two things need to be said. Of course people can change, otherwise there would be no point educating about racism at all, if everyones mind is already set. Secondly very few of us would want to be judged by our worst teenage actions, or stand up well to such scrutiny, once we are in our mid twenties or beyond.
And yet this story illustrates precisely the dangers that the 'reactionaries' have been warning you about all along: in the Church of Woke, anyone can be denounced for the smallest of heresies, and there is no forgiveness and no redemption.
Perhaps the reactionaries had a point after all?
I was certainly irresponsible at university. I got drunk and fell in a gutter, nicked a traffic cone, threw up in a taxi, told off-colour jokes, was a bit cheeky to a couple of lecturers, used the word "gay" to mean crap/pants/sad - as was normal at the time amongst all my friends of whatever persuasion - and was a bit of a letch on the dancefloor, and even got slapped once. However, most of the time I was fine, I had lots of fun, learnt a lot, made great friends, and had some gorgeous and intelligent girlfriends.
It's called growing up. But, if any of that had been tweeted at the time, I'd probably be finished.
I don't blame young people for being so uptight and snowflakey when they have all that to deal with. I would be.
You sound positively saintly. I've done much worse. Fortunately, pre social media.
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
If "something embarrassing in your past" is deemed to be just cause for an employer to dismiss an employee, I doubt if there is a single employee in the country who could not be dismissed.
I'm quite certain that every regular poster to this forum has posted something here that someone would deem offensive.
To answer a question I posed earlier, I think the new E Mids constituency is Rutland & Stamford a cross between parts of Lincs and Rutland. Rutland is too small to have one seat so must be a county cross somewhere.
Sounds like a tasty seat for life for some aspiring young Tory?
Preferably with ambitions to join another party, if previous MPs Quentin Davies and Nick Boles are to be used as a guide.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
As someone normally on the side of what the reactionaries call the woke, two things need to be said. Of course people can change, otherwise there would be no point educating about racism at all, if everyones mind is already set. Secondly very few of us would want to be judged by our worst teenage actions, or stand up well to such scrutiny, once we are in our mid twenties or beyond.
And yet this story illustrates precisely the dangers that the 'reactionaries' have been warning you about all along: in the Church of Woke, anyone can be denounced for the smallest of heresies, and there is no forgiveness and no redemption.
Perhaps the reactionaries had a point after all?
I was certainly irresponsible at university. I got drunk and fell in a gutter, nicked a traffic cone, threw up in a taxi, told off-colour jokes, was a bit cheeky to a couple of lecturers, used the word "gay" to mean crap/pants/sad - as was normal at the time amongst all my friends of whatever persuasion - and was a bit of a letch on the dancefloor, and even got slapped once. However, most of the time I was fine, I had lots of fun, learnt a lot, made great friends, and had some gorgeous and intelligent girlfriends.
It's called growing up. But, if any of that had been tweeted at the time, I'd probably be finished.
I don't blame young people for being so uptight and snowflakey when they have all that to deal with. I would be.
You sound positively saintly. I've done much worse. Fortunately, pre social media.
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
Sorry if this sounds a bit holier-than-thou but I didn't behave badly at all when I was at uni. I tried - I tried so so hard - but it never seemed to quite come off.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Sorry to dirty the anecdotal water with polling data, I am sure some people and their mates think Sir Keir is much better than Ed Miliband, but here are the comparison after 191 Leadership Approval Polls
Darker colours are Gross Positives, Lighter are Net Satisfaction
That police officer has pleaded guilty to the kidnap and rape of Sarah Everard.
But he was not asked to give a plea regard the murder charge.
Seems weird, the way they structure the charges.
He’s getting life for kidnap and rape anyway, and raises questions about how someone so screwed up can serve as armed police.
I assume this is grounds to detain him awaiting sentencing, rather than pre-plea?
He’s on remand already. Reading other reports, it appears that the murder charge has not been put to him yet, because psychological reports on his mental state have not been completed - so he’ll be back in court at a later date in July, to plead on that charge.
He's apparently accepted responsibility for the killing so I imagine the medical reports will relate to his mental state and whether he will plead guilty to manslaughter because of diminished responsibility or something else.
Poor girl. At least her family will be spared the torment of a contested trial.
Indeed, at least he spared a trial for the family, the details released today were horrific enough.
Most of us don’t care whether it’s Belmarsh or Broadmoor he gets to spend the next 30 years, but I suppose the prosecution have to follow the process to the letter.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
To be honest I don't really know what the rule are anymore. I and pretty much everyone I know is just doing what they want. Any rules businesses have to put in place are increasingly seen as an annoying inconvenience.
Yes that is the overwhelming reality and the insurmountable problem for the government.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
I see the the new doughnut seat encompassing Kenilworth and Southam (home of a well known contributor on here) has no name. K & S will do I guess or Warwickshire South
If you click on the seat with the data option selected it has the name Kenilworth and Southam.
If that goes through it means York Central is joined by Warwick and Leamington as being fully surrounded by another seat.
I'm assuming it's ok to say that these lads consider themselves British rather than Scottish? With Woke England taking the knee, who are they going to support?
They will be sorely missed I am sure
Unlikely to be an issue if the upsurge in cases pushes Sturgeon into cancelling the Fan Area in Glasgow.
Oh, wait a minute - none of her Govan constituents ever cause any trouble.....
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
They were badly thought through, bureaucratic, unpopular and partly undone by subsequent governments. Incompetent technocracy - classic Heath actually.
The original Royal Commission Report was based on a clear philosophy and extensive research ( of which I was a minor cog).They were rejected by Heath for pure party political reasons
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Cricket must be an overwhelmingly Conservative voting sport, so I’d say yes he would
Not sure about that - there's a huge asian presence in many of the clubs these days.
Depends which Asians I suppose. Players for sure, members of County sides I doubt it
I suppose the point is that British asians are big fans of the game and contribute a considerable amount of the revenue. I doubt Robinson will think it will do his career any favours if he becomes a totem on Boris's side of the culture war, thus stigmatizing himself and whatever teams he plays for.
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
There's a historical Bullingdon Rural District that I think makes up part of that constituency.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
I think that people can live with the rules as they are, the issue is when the government try and introduce new local lockdowns/compulsory isolation/surge testing/ travel bans to address the new delta variant.
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
I think elections would be so much more interesting if the different parties contested on the basis of different constituency boundaries. So the Tories chose how the constituencies were drawn for them, Labour for them, and so on.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs · 1h TurnItIn online marking system relies on it, and this crash comes right in the middle of the summer marking season, so a lot of lecturers will be v stressed right now!
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Cricket must be an overwhelmingly Conservative voting sport, so I’d say yes he would
Cricket has really retreated into its comfort zone during my lifetime. It feels like the sport's governing body made a decision that it was happy with its elderly blazer wearing supporters and its public school pool of players and had little interest in tapping into support or talent outside of that. I used to follow the game a lot when I was a kid and it was on TV but now I don't even know who England are playing this summer. My son's school doesn't teach cricket, despite having decent sized playing fields. He is football mad but cricket just doesn't exist for him. It's sad.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
That’s a very minor inconvenience. Having a pub with half the tables missing is pretty annoying.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
As someone normally on the side of what the reactionaries call the woke, two things need to be said. Of course people can change, otherwise there would be no point educating about racism at all, if everyones mind is already set. Secondly very few of us would want to be judged by our worst teenage actions, or stand up well to such scrutiny, once we are in our mid twenties or beyond.
And yet this story illustrates precisely the dangers that the 'reactionaries' have been warning you about all along: in the Church of Woke, anyone can be denounced for the smallest of heresies, and there is no forgiveness and no redemption.
Perhaps the reactionaries had a point after all?
I was certainly irresponsible at university. I got drunk and fell in a gutter, nicked a traffic cone, threw up in a taxi, told off-colour jokes, was a bit cheeky to a couple of lecturers, used the word "gay" to mean crap/pants/sad - as was normal at the time amongst all my friends of whatever persuasion - and was a bit of a letch on the dancefloor, and even got slapped once. However, most of the time I was fine, I had lots of fun, learnt a lot, made great friends, and had some gorgeous and intelligent girlfriends.
It's called growing up. But, if any of that had been tweeted at the time, I'd probably be finished.
I don't blame young people for being so uptight and snowflakey when they have all that to deal with. I would be.
You sound positively saintly. I've done much worse. Fortunately, pre social media.
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
If "something embarrassing in your past" is deemed to be just cause for an employer to dismiss an employee, I doubt if there is a single employee in the country who could not be dismissed.
I'm quite certain that every regular poster to this forum has posted something here that someone would deem offensive.
If you were to pursue this line of thinking further, you would probably find that most people have broken laws of one kind or another that could have potentially resulted in a term of imprisonment.
Boris beats Sir Keir 61-16 on "personality" which is indeed ties with the biggest winning margin since they started posing the question in 1979, beating Blair's 45 point margin (50-5) in his first poll against Hague in October 1997
Starmer's personality ratings have been 30 (June 20), 25 (Sep 20) , and 16 today - as the public get to see more of him, they find him less charismatic
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
I think that people can live with the rules as they are, the issue is when the government try and introduce new local lockdowns/compulsory isolation/surge testing/ travel bans to address the new delta variant.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
Yes, I’d agree and also worth noting hospitality is often younger people’s first route into work. It is important on so many levels.
Boris beats Sir Keir 61-16 on "personality" which is indeed the biggest winning margin since they started posing the question in 1979, beating Blair's 45 point margin (50-5) in his first poll against Hague in October 1997
Indeed, Boris beats Burnham too.
Interesting though that Burnham narrowly beats Sunak as best PM in the same Mori poll and all Labour options beat Gove.
Suggesting the Tories are still very reliant on Boris, if he goes and particularly if Burnham then replaces Starmer things could look very different
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
That’s a very minor inconvenience. Having a pub with half the tables missing is pretty annoying.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Cricket must be an overwhelmingly Conservative voting sport, so I’d say yes he would
Cricket has really retreated into its comfort zone during my lifetime. It feels like the sport's governing body made a decision that it was happy with its elderly blazer wearing supporters and its public school pool of players and had little interest in tapping into support or talent outside of that. I used to follow the game a lot when I was a kid and it was on TV but now I don't even know who England are playing this summer. My son's school doesn't teach cricket, despite having decent sized playing fields. He is football mad but cricket just doesn't exist for him. It's sad.
Lastmanstands is a good way to play some cricket without all the rituals of clubs and the establishment, afaik it doesn't get much support or funding from the official bodies.
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
They were badly thought through, bureaucratic, unpopular and partly undone by subsequent governments. Incompetent technocracy - classic Heath actually.
The original Royal Commission Report was based on a clear philosophy and extensive research ( of which I was a minor cog).They were rejected by Heath for pure party political reasons
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
I'm not dismissing any threat to the economy whatsoever. My post was a sequitur to the "it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules."
it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.The only major rules still in effect affect business
Businesses can't just ignore the rules as individuals can, they have insurance and far more onerous burdens from the state in terms of following the law.
I think these rules ought to be gone, and the public able to make up their own mind as to whether they wish to head out to a large wedding, nightclub, large event and so forth.
But as individuals we can only choose to ignore the 6 in a house rule - which I'm not going to worry about personally or the masks in shops rule - which I'll be sticking to.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
I think elections would be so much more interesting if the different parties contested on the basis of different constituency boundaries. So the Tories chose how the constituencies were drawn for them, Labour for them, and so on.
I see the the new doughnut seat encompassing Kenilworth and Southam (home of a well known contributor on here) has no name. K & S will do I guess or Warwickshire South
Oxfordshire is interesting for Tory infighting. Quite a lot of change in order to accomodate a new seat. The most 'new' one is Bicester. Ben Wallace might be eyeing it.
In order to reduce the oversized Witney seat, the gentrified Lib Dem and Labour parts north and west of Oxford have been added to either Banbury or the new Bicester seat. It leaves an even more rock solid Witney seat, but the impact on the other two might be interesting. Banbury is probably Tory enough to withstand the arrival of Labour held Chipping Norton and the Lib Dem stronghold of Charlbury.
However the new Bicester seat accomodates a chunk of the Oxford diaspora - liberal minded people living in the villages outside the town. Lib Dem areas like Eynsham, Stonesfield and Woodstock are added to Kidlington and Bicester itself, both of which have track records of not voting Tory. The new seat is still Tory but maybe not overwhelmingly so, but, unlike the old Witney seat, there is only one clear challenger - the Lib Dems.
If I was the Lib Dems, I would be happy with the outcome. Although if they were able to bunt Charlbury from Banbury into Bicester as well, it would be even better
What do you mean no name? It's still Kenilworth & Southam.
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
I think elections would be so much more interesting if the different parties contested on the basis of different constituency boundaries. So the Tories chose how the constituencies were drawn for them, Labour for them, and so on.
Where is Twitter on a map?
Do we have ward-level voting data? Perhaps a deliberate gerrymander would be a fun exercise. For nerds.
Boris beats Sir Keir 61-16 on "personality" which is indeed ties with the biggest winning margin since they started posing the question in 1979, beating Blair's 45 point margin (50-5) in his first poll against Hague in October 1997
Starmer's personality ratings have been 30 (June 20), 25 (Sep 20) , and 16 today - as the public get to see more of him, they find him less charismatic
Boris was 64, 67, 61
Too late to fully edit, it obviously ties for the biggest lead ever with Blair vs Hague rather than beats it. My mistake, apologies
Regarding the cricketers ‘offensive’ tweets from years ago, by the logic being used if anyone heard a prospective, or current, England player making a similar joke in real life, or laughing at someone else making one, at any time in the past, shouldn’t they be suspended as well? Social media shouldn’t trump real life
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
They were badly thought through, bureaucratic, unpopular and partly undone by subsequent governments. Incompetent technocracy - classic Heath actually.
The original Royal Commission Report was based on a clear philosophy and extensive research ( of which I was a minor cog).They were rejected by Heath for pure party political reasons
The Redcliffe-Maud recommendation, which Wilson said the government was minded to implement, were ghastly.
Looks like the 21st unlocking is definitely going ahead:
"@PoliticsForAlI NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Great news!
Does anyone have any evidence supporting this supposedly immutable law of Peston that when he predicts something the opposite happens? I see it referenced all the time and am deeply puzzled by it.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Cricket must be an overwhelmingly Conservative voting sport, so I’d say yes he would
Cricket has really retreated into its comfort zone during my lifetime. It feels like the sport's governing body made a decision that it was happy with its elderly blazer wearing supporters and its public school pool of players and had little interest in tapping into support or talent outside of that. I used to follow the game a lot when I was a kid and it was on TV but now I don't even know who England are playing this summer. My son's school doesn't teach cricket, despite having decent sized playing fields. He is football mad but cricket just doesn't exist for him. It's sad.
I don't think that is fair. The ECB has made huge efforts to get lots of kids (both boys and girls) involved with their "All Stars" and "Dynamo" cricket sessions. On a Friday night on our village playing field we have All Stars from 6pm to 7pm and Dynamos from 7pm to 8pm. There is a BBQ going selling hot dogs, beer and prosecco and a large chunk of the village with kids are there enjoying the sunshine and watching the kids.
I don't remember anything like it when I was young and lots of the surrounding villages have the same. It must surely result in some of those kids getting more involved with cricket and who then might develop into the England players of the future.
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
I think elections would be so much more interesting if the different parties contested on the basis of different constituency boundaries. So the Tories chose how the constituencies were drawn for them, Labour for them, and so on.
Where is Twitter on a map?
Do we have ward-level voting data? Perhaps a deliberate gerrymander would be a fun exercise. For nerds.
Regarding the cricketers ‘offensive’ tweets from years ago, by the logic being used if anyone heard a prospective, or current, England player making a similar joke in real life, or laughing at someone else making one, at any time in the past, shouldn’t they be suspended as well? Social media shouldn’t trump real life
Good point.
It's not really a good point because for one there is evidence and the other there is not.
I'm sure if there was a recording of someone making such a comment in "real life" there would be the same uproar.
Although like I said, I personally think it's been massively blown out of all proportion.
CEO's PA rang my son again today and are sending him another cheque for over 500
Turns out the SECOND meter they put in was also faulty - they had him down as using over £15 a day (this is a smart meter ... ) - actual use was £3 a day .......
They had said no way could both meters be faulty .............
Boris beats Sir Keir 61-16 on "personality" which is indeed the biggest winning margin since they started posing the question in 1979, beating Blair's 45 point margin (50-5) in his first poll against Hague in October 1997
Indeed, Boris beats Burnham too.
Interesting though that Burnham narrowly beats Sunak as best PM in the same Mori poll and all Labour options beat Gove.
Suggesting the Tories are still very reliant on Boris, if he goes and particularly if Burnham then replaces Starmer things could look very different
Not a fan of Burnham.
Johnson is up there on his own at the moment. Vaccines and lockdown Stockholm syndrome. As time progresses that could well change. But one never knows with Johnson. I don't see the attraction of a boorish, unreliable, untruthful philanderer, but plenty seem to.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
Looks like the 21st unlocking is definitely going ahead:
"@PoliticsForAlI NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Great news!
Does anyone have any evidence supporting this supposedly immutable law of Peston that when he predicts something the opposite happens? I see it referenced all the time and am deeply puzzled by it.
I was going to say his 'David Miliband is now Labour leader because he looks happy; Ed isn't because he looks sad' moment. But that, of course, was Nick Robinson.
Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
Because of the Government's policy of ignoringmajorities carrying Opposition Day motions. Hoyle hoped to persuade the Government to have a vote that they would pay attention to, because their excuse for not having the vote yesterday was not that they disagreed but that it was outside the scope of the Bill. "OK, let's have a vote that's not outside the scope", says Hoyle, to which the Government says "No, not that either".
The problem about this is that it alienates the Speaker and will push him into more Bercow-like response. In general Governments don't want a hostile Speaker.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Absurd, over 50% of British adults have now had their second jab making them largely immune even to the Indian variant.
We will never get to 100% unless we make vaccination compulsory so if not by next month and the height of summer then when? Especially once we get to winter flu season again
Looks like the 21st unlocking is definitely going ahead:
"@PoliticsForAlI NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Great news!
Does anyone have any evidence supporting this supposedly immutable law of Peston that when he predicts something the opposite happens? I see it referenced all the time and am deeply puzzled by it.
Since when is it a political editor’s job to relay his “beliefs”?
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
You may think it's preposterous but you need to reconcile yourself that my statement is correct. You, and may on here, disagree regarding the figures but based on current infections the reopening currently scheduled for 21 June isn't happening. Console youself by dipping into the Smarkets market if you disagree.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Look at Cyclefree's posts and I think you will see that you are dismissing the threat to the economy far too lightly.
Yes, I’d agree and also worth noting hospitality is often younger people’s first route into work. It is important on so many levels.
Poster campaign started this morning on Edinburgh's Royal Mile attacking the Scottish Government's lack of support for scottish tourist retail trade.
Looks like the 21st unlocking is definitely going ahead:
"@PoliticsForAlI NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Great news!
Does anyone have any evidence supporting this supposedly immutable law of Peston that when he predicts something the opposite happens? I see it referenced all the time and am deeply puzzled by it.
Since when is it a political editor’s job to relay his “beliefs”?
I see Cummings has re-emerged on Twitter to argue that few in government can be doing a very good job since they don’t appear to be working obsessively to tackle the crisis.
Looks like the 21st unlocking is definitely going ahead:
"@PoliticsForAlI NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Great news!
Does anyone have any evidence supporting this supposedly immutable law of Peston that when he predicts something the opposite happens? I see it referenced all the time and am deeply puzzled by it.
Since when is it a political editor’s job to relay his “beliefs”?
Surely missing something but isn't that the whole point of what a political editor does? Editors supposed to do opinion and journalists fact? The change is journalists doing opinion and alternative facts, not the role of editors.
A question to particularly the likes of @contrarian but also anyone else.
If you're in favour of opening up would you rather stuff stayed shut completely or entry was able to be decided on vaccination status.
If you're in favour of vax passports would you rather stuff opened up completely or remained shut ?
If you're in favour of keeping stuff closed (Like Drakeford) would you rather stuff opens with vax passports or opens completely ?
For "stuff" I guess nightclubs is the best example. For vax passports - some combo of first doses, fully dosed, single jabbed + neg test and so on.
If everything opened up fully, @contrarian would probably shield for a few weeks until he was sure he could rely on their herd immunity protecting him.
A question to particularly the likes of @contrarian but also anyone else.
If you're in favour of opening up would you rather stuff stayed shut completely or entry was able to be decided on vaccination status.
If you're in favour of vax passports would you rather stuff opened up completely or remained shut ?
If you're in favour of keeping stuff closed (Like Drakeford) would you rather stuff opens with vax passports or opens completely ?
For "stuff" I guess nightclubs is the best example. For vax passports - some combo of first doses, fully dosed, single jabbed + neg test and so on.
If everything opened up fully, @contrarian would probably shield for a few weeks until he was sure he could rely on their herd immunity protecting him.
He'll be waiting a while "covid-scotland-outbreak-linked-to-styx-kirkcaldy-as-38-test-positive"
I think the unfettered r0 of the Indian variant (And by implication the TRUE herd immunity threshold) is through the roof. Unvaxxed and in close contact with a carrier ? You'll catch it
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
Because of the Government's policy of ignoringmajorities carrying Opposition Day motions. Hoyle hoped to persuade the Government to have a vote that they would pay attention to, because their excuse for not having the vote yesterday was not that they disagreed but that it was outside the scope of the Bill. "OK, let's have a vote that's not outside the scope", says Hoyle, to which the Government says "No, not that either".
The problem about this is that it alienates the Speaker and will push him into more Bercow-like response. In general Governments don't want a hostile Speaker.
So the rebel MPs need to person up and find something unconnected which they threaten to vote down unless they get the vote they are entitled to.
A question to particularly the likes of @contrarian but also anyone else.
If you're in favour of opening up would you rather stuff stayed shut completely or entry was able to be decided on vaccination status.
If you're in favour of vax passports would you rather stuff opened up completely or remained shut ?
If you're in favour of keeping stuff closed (Like Drakeford) would you rather stuff opens with vax passports or opens completely ?
For "stuff" I guess nightclubs is the best example. For vax passports - some combo of first doses, fully dosed, single jabbed + neg test and so on.
I would not mind if vax passports came in to give people their freedom.
If I am barred from pubs/travel/big events etc because I have not been vaccinated, then that is my fault.
Personally this whole thing has been good for me. I am lucky enough to have a nice home/garden and its just me and the wife rattling around in it.
Personally speaking I should be in favour of lockdowns and vaxxes and all the rest. But I can see the downsides. I can see the problems. And those will affect everybody eventually.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
My favourite (i.e. worst) covid moment was entering the bar of a pub in order to visit the gents (I was drinking outside with friends).
The only two people in said bar were me and the barmaid, who was stood behind the bar itself. As I walked directly to the gents, she very sheepishly told me I had to walk the other (long) way around the bar to comply with the one-way system.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
My favourite (i.e. worst) covid moment was entering the bar of a pub in order to visit the gents (I was drinking outside with friends).
The only two people in said bar were me and the barmaid, who was stood behind the bar itself. As I walked directly to the gents, she very sheepishly told me I had to walk the other (long) way around the bar to comply with the one-way system.
In an EMPTY pub.
I got that in the car dealership I went to for a service last month. I was the only person in the place. Theatre.
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
You may think it's preposterous but you need to reconcile yourself that my statement is correct. You, and may on here, disagree regarding the figures but based on current infections the reopening currently scheduled for 21 June isn't happening. Console youself by dipping into the Smarkets market if you disagree.
Based on current infections the situation is better than the best case scenario months ago.
So what possible frigging justification is there for it not to proceed?
I see the the new doughnut seat encompassing Kenilworth and Southam (home of a well known contributor on here) has no name. K & S will do I guess or Warwickshire South
Oxfordshire is interesting for Tory infighting. Quite a lot of change in order to accomodate a new seat. The most 'new' one is Bicester. Ben Wallace might be eyeing it.
In order to reduce the oversized Witney seat, the gentrified Lib Dem and Labour parts north and west of Oxford have been added to either Banbury or the new Bicester seat. It leaves an even more rock solid Witney seat, but the impact on the other two might be interesting. Banbury is probably Tory enough to withstand the arrival of Labour held Chipping Norton and the Lib Dem stronghold of Charlbury.
However the new Bicester seat accomodates a chunk of the Oxford diaspora - liberal minded people living in the villages outside the town. Lib Dem areas like Eynsham, Stonesfield and Woodstock are added to Kidlington and Bicester itself, both of which have track records of not voting Tory. The new seat is still Tory but maybe not overwhelmingly so, but, unlike the old Witney seat, there is only one clear challenger - the Lib Dems.
If I was the Lib Dems, I would be happy with the outcome. Although if they were able to bunt Charlbury from Banbury into Bicester as well, it would be even better
What do you mean no name? It's still Kenilworth & Southam.
The map OGH clicked us thro to only has Warwick and Leamington bc acrooss it (for the borough seat of that name) the doughnut seat around it, on that map at least, has nothing
21 June simply ain't happening given the current figures.
Preposterous.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
You may think it's preposterous but you need to reconcile yourself that my statement is correct. You, and may on here, disagree regarding the figures but based on current infections the reopening currently scheduled for 21 June isn't happening. Console youself by dipping into the Smarkets market if you disagree.
Based on current infections the situation is better than the worst case scenario months ago.
So what possible frigging justification is there for it not to proceed?
The very big rises of the last week to 10 days will not have fed through to hospitalisations yet.
Interestingly this board is wildly to the "open up" side of the majority of public opinion which favours strict controls, particularly for other people
I see Cummings has re-emerged on Twitter to argue that few in government can be doing a very good job since they don’t appear to be working obsessively to tackle the crisis.
His view is a strange one. Not sure how many fiftysomethings can genuinely work a year without a day off and not lose effectiveness. Over working for March-May 2020, absolutely, after that finding a balance is better.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
The only major rules still in effect affect business - weddings, nightclubs, large events, work from home. Masks in shops is neither here nor there so far as day to day life goes and the rule of six indoors is likely only being observed if you'd have had less than 6 people in your house outwith any restrictions anyway.
Dunno, not being able to use the door at Tesco closest to where I park my car because of the dumb one way system is pretty annoying.
My favourite (i.e. worst) covid moment was entering the bar of a pub in order to visit the gents (I was drinking outside with friends).
The only two people in said bar were me and the barmaid, who was stood behind the bar itself. As I walked directly to the gents, she very sheepishly told me I had to walk the other (long) way around the bar to comply with the one-way system.
In an EMPTY pub.
I got that in the car dealership I went to for a service last month. I was the only person in the place. Theatre.
I actually felt sorry for the barmaid, her sheepish face told its own story when she asked – obviously she had been previously bollocked by some micro-manager for not enforcing the rules stringently enough.
I'm having an issue with my YT Music app that its pausing for about 5 seconds or so repeatedly. Sometimes a few times per song, then the song comes back. Never had it happen before, makes it unlistenable.
Interestingly this board is wildly to the "open up" side of the majority of public opinion which favours strict controls, particularly for other people
Actually polling today shows most of the public now want to end restrictions on the numbers you can meet indoors from June 21st and also end restrictions on wedding guests on the same day, a big shift from a few months ago https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1402186103369736192?s=20
Interestingly this board is wildly to the "open up" side of the majority of public opinion which favours strict controls, particularly for other people
Our understanding of the data is wildly higher, given our geekery.
A question to particularly the likes of @contrarian but also anyone else.
If you're in favour of opening up would you rather stuff stayed shut completely or entry was able to be decided on vaccination status.
If you're in favour of vax passports would you rather stuff opened up completely or remained shut ?
If you're in favour of keeping stuff closed (Like Drakeford) would you rather stuff opens with vax passports or opens completely ?
For "stuff" I guess nightclubs is the best example. For vax passports - some combo of first doses, fully dosed, single jabbed + neg test and so on.
If everything opened up fully, @contrarian would probably shield for a few weeks until he was sure he could rely on their herd immunity protecting him.
Our company pre-re-opening drinks is later this week and I am fully available...!!
Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
So thirty Conservative MPs, many of them former Government ministers, are now to be classed as Opposition, are they?
If they're rebelling and voting with the Opposition then yes.
Comments
Oxfordshire is interesting for Tory infighting. Quite a lot of change in order to accomodate a new seat. The most 'new' one is Bicester. Ben Wallace might be eyeing it.
In order to reduce the oversized Witney seat, the gentrified Lib Dem and Labour parts north and west of Oxford have been added to either Banbury or the new Bicester seat. It leaves an even more rock solid Witney seat, but the impact on the other two might be interesting. Banbury is probably Tory enough to withstand the arrival of Labour held Chipping Norton and the Lib Dem stronghold of Charlbury.
However the new Bicester seat accomodates a chunk of the Oxford diaspora - liberal minded people living in the villages outside the town. Lib Dem areas like Eynsham, Stonesfield and Woodstock are added to Kidlington and Bicester itself, both of which have track records of not voting Tory. The new seat is still Tory but maybe not overwhelmingly so, but, unlike the old Witney seat, there is only one clear challenger - the Lib Dems.
If I was the Lib Dems, I would be happy with the outcome. Although if they were able to bunt Charlbury from Banbury into Bicester as well, it would be even better
The govt decision to leave it to one week between decision and action is an arbitrary choice which is fair to question and criticise, not an inviolable law of mathematics or data.
I'm quite certain that every regular poster to this forum has posted something here that someone would deem offensive.
Darker colours are Gross Positives, Lighter are Net Satisfaction
Most of us don’t care whether it’s Belmarsh or Broadmoor he gets to spend the next 30 years, but I suppose the prosecution have to follow the process to the letter.
If that goes through it means York Central is joined by Warwick and Leamington as being fully surrounded by another seat.
Oh, wait a minute - none of her Govan constituents ever cause any trouble.....
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
Boris beats Sir Keir 61-16 on "personality" which is indeed ties with the biggest winning margin since they started posing the question in 1979, beating Blair's 45 point margin (50-5) in his first poll against Hague in October 1997
Starmer's personality ratings have been 30 (June 20), 25 (Sep 20) , and 16 today - as the public get to see more of him, they find him less charismatic
Boris was 64, 67, 61
We. Are. Going. Backwards.
"@PoliticsForAlI
NEW: ITV political editor Robert Peston says he does not believe the June 21 unlocking will go ahead."
Interesting though that Burnham narrowly beats Sunak as best PM in the same Mori poll and all Labour options beat Gove.
Suggesting the Tories are still very reliant on Boris, if he goes and particularly if Burnham then replaces Starmer things could look very different
Following the Black Lives Matter protests and scrutiny over statues, the council wants to explain the legend of the monkey."
https://news.sky.com/story/hartlepools-monkey-statue-to-be-given-explanatory-sign-to-avoid-offending-visitors-12327668
it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules. The only major rules still in effect affect business
Businesses can't just ignore the rules as individuals can, they have insurance and far more onerous burdens from the state in terms of following the law.
I think these rules ought to be gone, and the public able to make up their own mind as to whether they wish to head out to a large wedding, nightclub, large event and so forth.
But as individuals we can only choose to ignore the 6 in a house rule - which I'm not going to worry about personally or the masks in shops rule - which I'll be sticking to.
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-West-Midlands-Initial-Proposals-22.-Kenilworth-and-Southam-CC.pdf
Napoleonic disregard for county boundaries.
I don't remember anything like it when I was young and lots of the surrounding villages have the same. It must surely result in some of those kids getting more involved with cricket and who then might develop into the England players of the future.
https://smarkets.com/event/42235039/current-affairs/covid-19/lifestyle/nightclubs-to-reopen-on-21-june
I'm sure if there was a recording of someone making such a comment in "real life" there would be the same uproar.
Although like I said, I personally think it's been massively blown out of all proportion.
Unless they mean aliens of course.
It was all sorted and compensation agreed
CEO's PA rang my son again today and are sending him another cheque for over 500
Turns out the SECOND meter they put in was also faulty - they had him down as using over £15 a day (this is a smart meter ... ) - actual use was £3 a day .......
They had said no way could both meters be faulty .............
Johnson is up there on his own at the moment. Vaccines and lockdown Stockholm syndrome. As time progresses that could well change. But one never knows with Johnson. I don't see the attraction of a boorish, unreliable, untruthful philanderer, but plenty seem to.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
Current figures are almost infinitely better than the worst case scenario months ago.
There is no excuse to postpone 21 June. None whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zilch.
The problem about this is that it alienates the Speaker and will push him into more Bercow-like response. In general Governments don't want a hostile Speaker.
We will never get to 100% unless we make vaccination compulsory so if not by next month and the height of summer then when? Especially once we get to winter flu season again
If you're in favour of opening up would you rather stuff stayed shut completely or entry was able to be decided on vaccination status.
If you're in favour of vax passports would you rather stuff opened up completely or remained shut ?
If you're in favour of keeping stuff closed (Like Drakeford) would you rather stuff opens with vax passports or opens completely ?
For "stuff" I guess nightclubs is the best example. For vax passports - some combo of first doses, fully dosed, single jabbed + neg test and so on.
We also knew that cases would rise with the last lifting of restrictions - this is not unexpected and surely does not warrant a delay
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1402168379780349952
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1402168377905397760
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1402168376500396036
I believe the line to take is that they "have been on a journey"
When it’s one of their own it’s silly historic teenage stuff and forgivable.. when it’s anyone else:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1402168389175554051
I think the unfettered r0 of the Indian variant (And by implication the TRUE herd immunity threshold) is through the roof. Unvaxxed and in close contact with a carrier ? You'll catch it
If I am barred from pubs/travel/big events etc because I have not been vaccinated, then that is my fault.
Personally this whole thing has been good for me. I am lucky enough to have a nice home/garden and its just me and the wife rattling around in it.
Personally speaking I should be in favour of lockdowns and vaxxes and all the rest. But I can see the downsides. I can see the problems. And those will affect everybody eventually.
The only two people in said bar were me and the barmaid, who was stood behind the bar itself. As I walked directly to the gents, she very sheepishly told me I had to walk the other (long) way around the bar to comply with the one-way system.
In an EMPTY pub.
https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1402242172511006720
I will probably do so but I must admit the testing after doesn't fill me with unbridled joy (no pun intended).
I can't believe I'm the only one who would think like that. So in that sense I wonder if it will be GIGO.
So what possible frigging justification is there for it not to proceed?
Peston himself "does not believe" it will go ahead. Is this what passes for news these days?
*based on what I expect hospitalization numbers to do... but this could turn out to be wrong.
Any idea if this is related to the CDN outage?
Yes, there were extremely few new infections – the report came out a week or two ago IIRC.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1402186103369736192?s=20
Oppose: 39%
Support: 36%
Neither: 17%
55% of respondents aged 18 to 24 would support, whereas 66% of those aged 65+ would oppose.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402241533294702609?s=20
Does the British public think the UK made the right or wrong decision in deciding to leave the EU in 2016?
Right decision: 44%
Wrong decision: 42%
70% of 2019 Conservative voters and 23% of 2019 Labour voters say it was the right decision.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402234097179762693?s=20