I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
That can’t be right. I think you’ll find that they are in awe of our brilliant vaccination campaign and wishes they were lucky enough to be British.
They've basically caught up with where we were at the beginning of March.
They're at 65 doses per 100 people (on average) which is where we were at the end of March, beginning of April. That being said, because they are (now) basically all Pfizer-BioNTech/Moderna they are probably a couple of weeks further on as far as protection.
Scratch that - 60 per 100 people in the EU, which is almost exactly where the UK was on 1 April.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
Probably an overreaction to having been burnt in the winter. But if opening up again does cause a resurgence, the UK is in a far better position given the lower base.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
But even leaving aside an imperialist past prioritizing domestic interests doesn't map to no obligation to poorer parts of the world. Eg if it's a choice between providing clean water for somewhere dirt poor or (same price) a 2nd weekly bin collection in Tory marginals, this is for me at the very least a toughie.
No man is an island, and all that. But, I was answering, in general terms, the point raised by Cameron's aide.
i) Pro lockdown, pro vax ii) Anti lockdown, pro vax iii) Anti lockdown, antivax iv) Pro lockdown, antivax.
are
Group iv) Pro lockdown / antivax is a real niche where there'll be a handful of people. Group i) is the majority in the UK I think Group ii) - where I'd say most of PB is is ... underrepresented in general and certainly far quieter than either groups i) or iii). I think we're drowned out by the Lozza Foxes and the Drakefords from either side
I think PB is mainly (i) not (ii).
It's only moving to (ii) as regards this 21st June decision.
Yes, I think you are right. I've certainly felt in the minority on here. A sort of @contrarian lite - which is worst than being contrarian full-fat, I fear.
No you stay as you are. You've trod the line the right side of Covid denial. Some haven't.
First doses definitely picking up, just been given the call myself for next Wednesday.
I must admit I would have though I'd have my second one by now..
If your second is in England and more than 8 weeks from your first, you can reschedule it easily online.
I thought it was only over 50s and those that were vulnerable that the government guaranteed this to.
Mine is scheduled for 10 weeks from my first, I am in two minds to see if I can wing an earlier one.
I'm 38 and booked mine 8 weeks to the day after the first. Everyone else I know that's used the site has been able to do the same.
My only concern is I had Moderna, no idea what the stocks are like of it. When I originally got it, the closest place I could get my 2nd dose was 90 mins away.
Have you tried (re-)booking your second on the website?
You have to cancel first before you can even see availability....which is annoying.
Bassetlaw is completely outside the national system, you get a message to your phone inviting you for a jab then book through the GP's own health portal - like the Scottish system but with a text instead of a letter. I think it's led to efficiency and a quicker rollout than average.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
They might think they are over covid, but I wouldn't be surprised if some European countries see rises in cases like we are, especially if the Delta variant takes hold. Really, but for Delta, I think we would be on course for almost normal in 13 days time. We may now have a slight hold up, but its coming. Covid loves hubris. (See India recently, the UK government last summer etc)
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
But even leaving aside an imperialist past prioritizing domestic interests doesn't map to no obligation to poorer parts of the world. Eg if it's a choice between providing clean water for somewhere dirt poor or (same price) a 2nd weekly bin collection in Tory marginals, this is for me at the very least a toughie.
There's an irony in your post in that you've inadvertently made a quasi-imperialist case along the line British socialists did in the 1950s.
Our responsibility for ensuring such countries were well-governed ended upon independence.
Now, the choice we have is that either we decide to intervene directly in projects in those countries, because "we know best", or we funnel that aid through their Governments and hope they spend it on the right things.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Which they probably already have but won't know because with a few notable exceptions are barely doing any sequencing....
And as a result will open up far quicker than we will, likely with no ill effects. Meanwhile we're positively delighting in our paralysis by analysis.
Hasn't every step of the reopening gone as planned so far? That's hardly paralysis.
Exactly as planned if you were following a policy of dates, not data. I hope, but do not expect, that policy to survive the next fortnight.
Really? The counterfactual is that they opened up earlier, and the UK would be further up the growth curve making it even more unlikely the last stage would happen as planned.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
That can’t be right. I think you’ll find that they are in awe of our brilliant vaccination campaign and wishes they were lucky enough to be British.
They've basically caught up with where we were at the beginning of March.
They're at 65 doses per 100 people (on average) which is where we were at the end of March, beginning of April. That being said, because they are (now) basically all Pfizer-BioNTech/Moderna they are probably a couple of weeks further on as far as protection.
What data set are you getting that from? If you take owid (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations), the UK hit 65 doses per 100 people on April 20. Germany is just above there now, Italy just below. Since it's the same sausage machine, the people/adults thing doesn't matter, as long as it's the same for each country.
So that's currently a 7 week gap on jab count. France is about a week behind that. A couple of weeks off that because mRNA works better faster, a couple of weeks off because EU countries are expecting some mega Pfizer deliveries this month. I'm really not expecting the EU to finish at the same time as the UK, but there going to be a lot less in it than many people on this side of the Channel appear to think.
Interestingly hospitalisations w-o-w have fallen by a whisker again today.
Possibly just noise.
Irrelevant. The latest models show that there will be 383 trillion patients in hospital in ten weeks' time if we don't impose a curfew and stop pubs from selling alcohol indoors. So that must be true. Delta variant, up to 1,566,234,770% more transmissible, etc., etc.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Which they probably already have but won't know because with a few notable exceptions are barely doing any sequencing....
And as a result will open up far quicker than we will, likely with no ill effects. Meanwhile we're positively delighting in our paralysis by analysis.
Hasn't every step of the reopening gone as planned so far? That's hardly paralysis.
Exactly as planned if you were following a policy of dates, not data. I hope, but do not expect, that policy to survive the next fortnight.
Really? The counterfactual is that they opened up earlier, and the UK would be further up the growth curve making it even more unlikely the last stage would happen as planned.
The growth curve is pointing down in Bolton & Bedford, and flat in Blackburn. Time will tell, but there isn't much sign yet of an outbreak which doesn't hit a local limit quickly. There are plenty of counter-factuals (which don't require pure speculation) in the rest of the world engaging in much less testing, less sequencing, and quicker opening. Perhaps they will pay a price but there is no sign of it yet.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
Interestingly hospitalisations w-o-w have fallen by a whisker again today.
Possibly just noise.
Irrelevant. The latest models show that there will be 383 trillion patients in hospital in ten weeks' time if we don't impose a curfew and stop pubs from selling alcohol indoors. So that must be true. Delta variant, up to 1,566,234,770% more transmissible, etc., etc.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
Most of them are not positively in favour of lockdown, (although a handful may be). It's just that it doesn't particularly bother them, and if it goes on for a few more months, no problem.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
It's pretty clear that a significant section of the public is happy with the status quo of restrictions for other people
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
Entirely agree. And the constant narrative about holidays inevitably leads to the scenes we are seeing in Portugal with people desperate to return before the quarantine requirements kick in. Quite why they had to go away in the first place is beyond me (Cabinet ministers included).
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
Most of them are not positively in favour of lockdown, (although a handful may be). It's just that it doesn't particularly bother them, and if it goes on for a few more months, no problem.
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
(This is always about 2 days ahead of the covid dashboard)
Total number in hospital up to 879 as of this morning. Last fourteen days in order: 745-742-743-748-755-773-776-801-779-805-782-807-860-879 - This is always very wobbly (and has been as high as 797 only 2 days before that 14-day series began, so the start point is arguably artificially depressed. - The rise is primarily driven by the North West (up from 166 to 246 - but the rate of climb seems to be slowing there) and the East of England (38 to 68, and again the rate of climb may be slowing). Slight climb in the South East as well, but this may be fluctuations. - Admissions
Total number in mechanical ventilation beds in England up to 140. Last fourteen days in order: 115-110-116-112-115-110-123-116-124-119-124-131-133-140 Still early days, but it looks like a genuine slight rise. - Again driven primarily by the North West (up from 23 beds to 47) and a teeny bit by the East of England (from 5 to 10, but I'm not going "Argh! 100% increase!" because come on; tiny numbers. And we hit 10 there five days ago, so it looks to be a step change rather than dramatic rising curve
I think the takeaway is that there's definitely a rise, but it's overwhelmingly in the hotspots (at the moment, anyway), and it's considerably shallower than it was in any previous wave (unsurprisingly).
Rather than a straightforward exponential rise, it will be a different shape: one with a decreasing exponent over time (vax reducing the exponent), so if it's shallow now, it will shallow even further. It may even end up going linear for a while and then curving down.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
Most of them are not positively in favour of lockdown, (although a handful may be). It's just that it doesn't particularly bother them, and if it goes on for a few more months, no problem.
Tomorrow, tomorrow, it's always a day away.
As I posted the other day, if the academics on indie SAGE were put on furlough and told their contracts may not be renewed in the autumn due to the economic situation, how many of them would still be yelling 'lockdown more, lockdown harder, lockdown everyday'???
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
For 2, best to use the US VAERS system. Risk about 1 in 32,000 I think.
The UK figures are concealed as well as possible on the govt website while technically being 'published'.
UK Column published them in a more transparent form but has had trouble staying on the air.
This has of course been the practice with COVID since Feb. 2020, i.e. lies and damned lies but very few real statistics.
For 1, they need to remember that the risk is "chance of exposure" multiplied by "outcome risk." Qcovid uses about 1 in 50. Fine for when we're locked down, but I'd prefer not to be locked down. Opening up without herd immunity means everyone gets that risk, so 50 times the level
For 2, remember that VAERS is heavily abused by the antivaxxer loons. To illustrate this, someone successfully reported being turned into the Incredible Hulk by a vaccine and it went onto VAERS. So VAERS tends only to be cited by antivaxxer idiots these days.
The denialist fools have always been abusing "statistics" and lies; sadly some still believe them even now.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
Comparing one day over a week is not a good comparison as last Monday was a Bank Holiday. Deaths are up today, but last Tuesday was the day after a Bank Holiday.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
It's not flat, but don't overplay your hand - the rate of growth is significantly slower than in previous waves.
Meanwhile on cases, if you look at specimen date rather than reported, England is flat lining at about 5k a day since the bank holiday - with falls in the original hot spots being offset by spread to new areas. Until we have a hot spot keep going and grow to anywhere near it's Jan level, there is no flashing red light.
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
Interestingly, the seven-day average is actually slightly down week-on-week.
Hospital admissions and beds filled are undeniably going up. Just nowhere near quick enough to be a credible problem.
At the current rate of increase it'll take about a month to get to a total of 1,500 Covid patients in hospital, and that's assuming that the 15 million additional vaccinations that will happen over that period have zero additional effect either on preventing serious illness or dampening transmission, which is wholly implausible.
Barring a variant a whole lot more deadly than Delta, Covid-19 is effectively finished as an emergency. It's just that a lot of the scientists either can't see it, or don't want to.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
Most of them are not positively in favour of lockdown, (although a handful may be). It's just that it doesn't particularly bother them, and if it goes on for a few more months, no problem.
Tomorrow, tomorrow, it's always a day away.
As I posted the other day, if the academics on indie SAGE were put on furlough and told their contracts may not be renewed in the autumn due to the economic situation, how many of them would still be yelling 'lockdown more, lockdown harder, lockdown everyday'???
The hacks should start by asking them if they’ve had a good pandemic in their own personal finances. The problem is that they’ll reply “same as you”.
For 2, best to use the US VAERS system. Risk about 1 in 32,000 I think.
The UK figures are concealed as well as possible on the govt website while technically being 'published'.
UK Column published them in a more transparent form but has had trouble staying on the air.
This has of course been the practice with COVID since Feb. 2020, i.e. lies and damned lies but very few real statistics.
For 1, they need to remember that the risk is "chance of exposure" multiplied by "outcome risk." Qcovid uses about 1 in 50. Fine for when we're locked down, but I'd prefer not to be locked down. Opening up without herd immunity means everyone gets that risk, so 50 times the level
For 2, remember that VAERS is heavily abused by the antivaxxer loons. To illustrate this, someone successfully reported being turned into the Incredible Hulk by a vaccine and it went onto VAERS. So VAERS tends only to be cited by antivaxxer idiots these days.
The denialist fools have always been abusing "statistics" and lies; sadly some still believe them even now.
One thing the indian variant has done is swing the risk from vaccination compared to covid even further toward vaccination. I mean it was there already but now it'll be at an even younger crossover point, probably about 5 years old or some such.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
Yep. But ditto the other way.
Some people think that by protesting vigorously about freedoms (eg to go to Tesco sans mask) they signal themselves as a slightly superior form of being to the lumpen masses. One who is rather more rugged and elevated. Bit braver. More independent of thought. Less easily cowed by Authority. Less swayed by Groupthink.
Such people will often declare when you run into them that "Anybody who sacrifices a little liberty for extra security deserves neither liberty nor security."
To which one can only reply, "Yes indeed. Can you pass the salt?"
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
Comparing one day over a week is not a good comparison as last Monday was a Bank Holiday. Deaths are up today, but last Tuesday was the day after a Bank Holiday.
The virus, unlike Covid testers, doesn't take bank holidays off. If you're ill enough to get admitted you get admitted, holiday or not.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
Entirely agree. And the constant narrative about holidays inevitably leads to the scenes we are seeing in Portugal with people desperate to return before the quarantine requirements kick in. Quite why they had to go away in the first place is beyond me (Cabinet ministers included).
I'm sceptical about many people claiming to need to travel on business though. If you just need to talk to people, do it by Zoom. If you are a specialist engineer who needs to tinker with some piece of kit and can't find the expertise locally, fair enough
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
That’s what I said wasn’t it?!
Sorry, I was confused by your comment. Sandpit said that there was a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm the health service. Then you said that was the reason for locking down, which I interpreted to mean a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm...
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
But what proportion of that increase comes from vaccine refusers? Your simplistic analysis of the numbers doesn't tell the full story. We can't keep lockdown for that reason because those peopl will never get it anyway.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
That’s what I said wasn’t it?!
Sorry, I was confused by your comment. Sandpit said that there was a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm the health service. Then you said that was the reason for locking down, which I interpreted to mean a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm...
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
That’s what I said wasn’t it?!
Sorry, I was confused by your comment. Sandpit said that there was a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm the health service. Then you said that was the reason for locking down, which I interpreted to mean a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm...
The reason for the restrictions, was to avoid overwhelming the health service.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
That was the reason for initially locking down, so I think the time has come to let people take their own level of risk
I thought the reason for lockdown was it looked like it was about to overwhelm the healthcare system, especially for the first one.
That’s what I said wasn’t it?!
Sorry, I was confused by your comment. Sandpit said that there was a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm the health service. Then you said that was the reason for locking down, which I interpreted to mean a small rise, but not anything that looked like it would overwhelm...
For 2, best to use the US VAERS system. Risk about 1 in 32,000 I think.
The UK figures are concealed as well as possible on the govt website while technically being 'published'.
UK Column published them in a more transparent form but has had trouble staying on the air.
This has of course been the practice with COVID since Feb. 2020, i.e. lies and damned lies but very few real statistics.
For 1, they need to remember that the risk is "chance of exposure" multiplied by "outcome risk." Qcovid uses about 1 in 50. Fine for when we're locked down, but I'd prefer not to be locked down. Opening up without herd immunity means everyone gets that risk, so 50 times the level
For 2, remember that VAERS is heavily abused by the antivaxxer loons. To illustrate this, someone successfully reported being turned into the Incredible Hulk by a vaccine and it went onto VAERS. So VAERS tends only to be cited by antivaxxer idiots these days.
The denialist fools have always been abusing "statistics" and lies; sadly some still believe them even now.
There's also the fact that the exposure risk to AZN for a 34 year old having a first jab is close to zero, whatever the outcome risk is.
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
For what its worth I agree with you - there is a rise in both hospitalisation and death, but the rise is NOT matching the cases rise, and will be redominantly among those who will not die of this. The charts I posted (chosen as easy to display) may be a day or so out of date, but they portray a situation very different from previous waves and disconnected from the doom mongers of iSAGE. We are no conditioned to expect more cases leads to more in hospital leads to more deaths, but we are now in a different place thanks to the vaccines.
In England there were 121 admissions yesterday compared to 80 the previous week. The seven day average is up to 103 compared to 86 the week before. Yes - these figures are not in and of themselves catastrophic, but anyone can see the direction of travel is not "flat".
Comparing one day over a week is not a good comparison as last Monday was a Bank Holiday. Deaths are up today, but last Tuesday was the day after a Bank Holiday.
The virus, unlike Covid testers, doesn't take bank holidays off. If you're ill enough to get admitted you get admitted, holiday or not.
A very cursory look at the data suggests numbers were down last Sat-Mon and massively up on Tuesday, with the previous weekend similar. It might be a reporting issue, or might be that people don't go to their doctor at the weekend and therefore don't get sent to hospital.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
Entirely agree. And the constant narrative about holidays inevitably leads to the scenes we are seeing in Portugal with people desperate to return before the quarantine requirements kick in. Quite why they had to go away in the first place is beyond me (Cabinet ministers included).
I'm sceptical about many people claiming to need to travel on business though. If you just need to talk to people, do it by Zoom. If you are a specialist engineer who needs to tinker with some piece of kit and can't find the expertise locally, fair enough
Well, this is precisely the need for my firm's business travel. We're awaiting Macron's announcements about the double-vaxxed change he is introducing shortly.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
Perhaps they are better at handling risk than we are.
I agree.
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
It's pretty clear that a significant section of the public is happy with the status quo of restrictions for other people
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
I know that nothing like it can or will possibly happen, BUT... the most effective way to finish off the restrictions would be to tie the value of the state pension to the youth unemployment rate and the furlough bill. Those two indicators go up, the state pension goes down. Would concentrate minds wonderfully.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
Entirely agree. And the constant narrative about holidays inevitably leads to the scenes we are seeing in Portugal with people desperate to return before the quarantine requirements kick in. Quite why they had to go away in the first place is beyond me (Cabinet ministers included).
I'm sceptical about many people claiming to need to travel on business though. If you just need to talk to people, do it by Zoom. If you are a specialist engineer who needs to tinker with some piece of kit and can't find the expertise locally, fair enough
I would never hold a serious conversation with someone on a computer/device.
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
But even leaving aside an imperialist past prioritizing domestic interests doesn't map to no obligation to poorer parts of the world. Eg if it's a choice between providing clean water for somewhere dirt poor or (same price) a 2nd weekly bin collection in Tory marginals, this is for me at the very least a toughie.
There's an irony in your post in that you've inadvertently made a quasi-imperialist case along the line British socialists did in the 1950s.
Our responsibility for ensuring such countries were well-governed ended upon independence.
Now, the choice we have is that either we decide to intervene directly in projects in those countries, because "we know best", or we funnel that aid through their Governments and hope they spend it on the right things.
Not sure I see irony there. I think in general there's a moral obligation on rich countries to help poor ones and that the obligation is particularly strong for a country with our imperialist past. I also (like you) think it works as self-interest too. Soft power. Global Britain.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
I think that some people consider there is a form of moral virtue in lockdowns.
I have definitely seen this.
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
It’s annoying as hell when those needing to travel on business, or separated from family for more than a year, are pushed out of the conversation in favour of those who just want a week on a beach somewhere.
Entirely agree. And the constant narrative about holidays inevitably leads to the scenes we are seeing in Portugal with people desperate to return before the quarantine requirements kick in. Quite why they had to go away in the first place is beyond me (Cabinet ministers included).
I'm sceptical about many people claiming to need to travel on business though. If you just need to talk to people, do it by Zoom. If you are a specialist engineer who needs to tinker with some piece of kit and can't find the expertise locally, fair enough
I would never hold a serious conversation with someone on a computer/device.
Why not? It's really useful. Even before the pandemic it was something I would do regularly for work.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
It's pretty clear that a significant section of the public is happy with the status quo of restrictions for other people
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
I know that nothing like it can or will possibly happen, BUT... the most effective way to finish off the restrictions would be to tie the value of the state pension to the youth unemployment rate and the furlough bill. Those two indicators go up, the state pension goes down. Would concentrate minds wonderfully.
The most selfish generation in history, happily claiming their unfunded final salary pension schemes, sitting in their over-valused homes with planning permissions denied for new building. And they had 1 more gift for us!
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
Let's assume the number of people in hospital is increasing at 20% week-over-week.
That means we will go:
June: 1,000 1,200 1,440 1,728
July: 2,074 2,488 2,986 3,583
August: 4,300 5,160 6,192 7,430
Those numbers are not great, but they're also well below what we've seen historically in the UK.
But they're also unlikely to be realised. Why?
Because they are running up against the number of people unvaccinated (or single vaccinated) relentlessly falling. By the end of August, how many unvaccinated people are there going to be in the UK?
It's also really important to realise that right now the number of potential CV19 hosts is falling, and that fall is accelerating.
If you go from 100 unvaccinated people to 90, that's only a 10% reduction in the number of hosts. If you go from 30 to 20, that's a 33% drop. So, from the virus's point of view, the UK is becoming an ever more hostile place to be.
If you go from 100 unvaccinated people to 90, that's only a 10% reduction in the number of hosts. If you go from 30 to 20, that's a 33% drop. So, from the virus's point of view, the UK is becoming an ever more hostile place to be.
More evidence of UK hostile environment for migrants....
He’s already given up trying to stop Johnson lying.
At the end of the day, Overseas Aid is a form of regressive taxation imposed by the richer parts of society who tend to be the most vocal about it, on the poorest who prefer to spend the money at home but whose voices get drowned out by the calls of "what about the children?".
If rich people want to contribute more to funding overseas aid, then they should donate more aggressively to charities, via which they can also take advantage of Gift Aid.
They also do not help themselves by defending the target when there are clear examples of the UK diverting money towards countries that either do not need it (e.g. China) or spend it on frivolous projects such as space launches (e.g. India).
During the whole Brexit comedy, I attended a city dinner.
In an attempt to divert the conversation from the inevitable, I introduced the tale of one of Cameron's aides, who asked why (as a philosophical question) he should care more about the welfare of a UK citizen than that of a someone in the poorer parts of the world.
An HAC officer at the table pointed out that he was on duty that weekend (some kind of TA exercise), had a large number of armed men under his command and was jolly interested in this idea of flexible allegiance.
It's a perfectly valid question. Especially if put a different way.
Does a country whose wealth is based to a large degree on exploitation of other parts of the world have an obligation to help those parts of the world today?
Maybe yes, maybe no. It's a debate you can have. But it's hardly a no-brainer.
In philosophical terms, it's a part of the social contract. If I expect a specific group of people to obey the laws which I pass, and to pay the taxes which I levy, then I owe it to them to prioritise their interests, rather than the interests of humanity in general.
Another way of looking at it is that being a leader of a country is like being a trustee. A trustee owes duties to his beneficiaries, not to the world in general.
If I wish to promote the interests of humanity in general, I can always join an NGO.
But even leaving aside an imperialist past prioritizing domestic interests doesn't map to no obligation to poorer parts of the world. Eg if it's a choice between providing clean water for somewhere dirt poor or (same price) a 2nd weekly bin collection in Tory marginals, this is for me at the very least a toughie.
No man is an island, and all that. But, I was answering, in general terms, the point raised by Cameron's aide.
Well ok. A government should prioritize the needs of its own citizens. That's a wrap.
Then depending what "prioritize" means, that could be consistent with anything from 0% overseas aid to a very chunky % indeed.
If you go from 100 unvaccinated people to 90, that's only a 10% reduction in the number of hosts. If you go from 30 to 20, that's a 33% drop. So, from the virus's point of view, the UK is becoming an ever more hostile place to be.
More evidence of UK hostile environment for migrants....
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
It's pretty clear that a significant section of the public is happy with the status quo of restrictions for other people
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
I know that nothing like it can or will possibly happen, BUT... the most effective way to finish off the restrictions would be to tie the value of the state pension to the youth unemployment rate and the furlough bill. Those two indicators go up, the state pension goes down. Would concentrate minds wonderfully.
The horrendous selfishness of the boomer generation really has been something to behold in this pandemic.
It is about 3 times harder to build trust and empathy over video conf.
Yeah, it's far more difficult to build a new relationship, or train new people, purely over zoom. But for people you have long standing collaborations with, it's a very useful tool.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
Perhaps they are better at handling risk than we are.
I agree.
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
And they're coming up with the answer "yes".
The French have always been a very pro-liberty nation. I remember my mother tut-tutting on family holidays over how much risk the parents were prepared to let their children take in open water and on the ski slopes. Of course, that means that many French children can swim and ski from an early age!
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
Perhaps they are better at handling risk than we are.
I agree.
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
And they're coming up with the answer "yes".
The history of the last winter might have a mental impact there. Most Western European countries did a moderately reasonable job of keeping Covid cases and deaths from getting out of hand over the winter. Grim numbers of lives lost, but manageable, without the huge peak that the UK experienced in January. At this point, I'm not blaming anyone for that peak, but just noting that it happened.
And whilst it might be that the situation in June isn't what it was in December, it would be inhuman for that experience not to have an impact and engender an excess of caution.
I remember last year on here being told that 'nobody' liked lockdown and restrictions. I think over the next month or so any remaining doubt will cease that there absolutely are people, some in positions of influence, who really don't want this to end.
Their views won't be expressed in that form, but we'll be a long way past the point of rational disagreement with ending lockdown before everyone will accept we can move on.
Most of them are not positively in favour of lockdown, (although a handful may be). It's just that it doesn't particularly bother them, and if it goes on for a few more months, no problem.
Tomorrow, tomorrow, it's always a day away.
Morgen Morgen nur nicht Heute sagen immer bange Leute.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
Perhaps they are better at handling risk than we are.
I agree.
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
And they're coming up with the answer "yes".
The French have always been a very pro-liberty nation. I remember my mother tut-tutting on family holidays over how much risk the parents were prepared to let their children take in open water and on the ski slopes. Of course, that means that many French children can swim and ski from an early age!
I could not believe it when my French godson went on his first week-long school trip. Il a trois ans! Most British 3-year-olds would not be trusted to walk from the living room to the kitchen unaccompanied.
HERE’s a question for the pub quiz, assuming it’s Covid-compliant: who’s the most unsackable man in Scottish politics? At first glance, you might take your pick of the upper echelons of the SNP administration — from John Swinney to Humza Yousaf. But you get bonus points if you plumped for head honcho Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive — the numero uno administrator. He’s an enigmatic type, or has been until recently: we know from Twitter that he cooks for his wife Nicola Sturgeon, and they squabble over decorating the Christmas tree.
HERE’s a question for the pub quiz, assuming it’s Covid-compliant: who’s the most unsackable man in Scottish politics? At first glance, you might take your pick of the upper echelons of the SNP administration — from John Swinney to Humza Yousaf. But you get bonus points if you plumped for head honcho Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive — the numero uno administrator. He’s an enigmatic type, or has been until recently: we know from Twitter that he cooks for his wife Nicola Sturgeon, and they squabble over decorating the Christmas tree.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
Perhaps they are better at handling risk than we are.
I agree.
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
And they're coming up with the answer "yes".
This kind of assumes that what we are doing right now is not risky.
Our Corbynite economics IS risky. Its f8cking risky. Its f8cking suicidal. Especially when other countries are moving away from this approach and getting back to normal.
Think the markets won't react? possibly in a disorderly fashion? Johnson could be dead in the water if there's a run on the bond market or sterling.
I get the impression from my European colleagues that basically covid is over.
In fact, they think we are still riddled with it via the “Indian variant” and express pity, concern etc.
Are they not able to look at case rate figures?
They’re not reading the figures. They’re just responding to:
A - the opening up they see locally B - their own interaction with vaccines C - the scary stuff on the news about the U.K.
So uninformed nonsense then?
I never said it was informed.
I shared it because it’s interesting (and annoying) that they are basically “over covid” whereas in this country many still seem wedded to indefinite forms of lockdown.
I do feel we are squandering out vax success regarding opening up.
It's pretty clear that a significant section of the public is happy with the status quo of restrictions for other people
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
I know that nothing like it can or will possibly happen, BUT... the most effective way to finish off the restrictions would be to tie the value of the state pension to the youth unemployment rate and the furlough bill. Those two indicators go up, the state pension goes down. Would concentrate minds wonderfully.
The most selfish generation in history, happily claiming their unfunded final salary pension schemes, sitting in their over-valused homes with planning permissions denied for new building. And they had 1 more gift for us!
6,048 new cases....that's basically double same time last week....do I need to start going all Tweak?
Case numbers are pretty much irrelevant at this point - the more important stat is number in hospital, which is staying flat.
I wish people would stop saying that. Today's PHE data, as I said above, shows an undeniable increase and the direction of travel is *not* looking good.
Looking at @Andy_Cooke’s analysis about three posts up, there’s a small rise, but not anything that looks like overwhelming the healthcare system any time soon.
Let's assume the number of people in hospital is increasing at 20% week-over-week.
That means we will go:
June: 1,000 1,200 1,440 1,728
July: 2,074 2,488 2,986 3,583
August: 4,300 5,160 6,192 7,430
Those numbers are not great, but they're also well below what we've seen historically in the UK.
But they're also unlikely to be realised. Why?
Because they are running up against the number of people unvaccinated (or single vaccinated) relentlessly falling. By the end of August, how many unvaccinated people are there going to be in the UK?
It's also really important to realise that right now the number of potential CV19 hosts is falling, and that fall is accelerating.
If you go from 100 unvaccinated people to 90, that's only a 10% reduction in the number of hosts. If you go from 30 to 20, that's a 33% drop. So, from the virus's point of view, the UK is becoming an ever more hostile place to be.
Prior to today we weren't even anywhere near 20% a week growth.
Having said that, the beds occupied data is 2 days more timely than admissions, and strongly suggests that tomorrow's admissions figure will look ugly.
Comments
Is this a photo or a painting?
I assume the cut off is 35, as I am 34....
Besides 2/6 data was 6,026
Don't compare a weekday against the Bank Holiday.
Our responsibility for ensuring such countries were well-governed ended upon independence.
Now, the choice we have is that either we decide to intervene directly in projects in those countries, because "we know best", or we funnel that aid through their Governments and hope they spend it on the right things.
Possibly just noise.
So that's currently a 7 week gap on jab count. France is about a week behind that. A couple of weeks off that because mRNA works better faster, a couple of weeks off because EU countries are expecting some mega Pfizer deliveries this month. I'm really not expecting the EU to finish at the same time as the UK, but there going to be a lot less in it than many people on this side of the Channel appear to think.
England admissions:
In hospital in England:
We expected cases to rise on opening up and that the link to serious disease would be weakened and broken. Good news - its happening.
Relax.
A Rochdale grooming gang member who got a girl (13) pregnant and trafficked a 15-year-old said 'we have not committed that big a crime'
Hmm - I beg to differ
Some of my mates were very judgy about my (entirely legal) business travel in November. It didn't seem to occur to them that some of us are can't always work from home.....
Anyone over 11: Either show proof of vaccination (even though not available to under 18s) or negative lateral flow test result
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1402280556289744896?s=20
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Hospital admissions and beds filled are undeniably going up. Just nowhere near quick enough to be a credible problem.
https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-West-Midlands-Initial-Proposals-49.-Walsall-BC.pdf
https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2023-review/west-midlands/
[clue: they don't go to nightclubs and the bowling clubs have reopened so all's good there]
This is just pants. We should just get back to normal.
We better lockdown a bit more.
1) death from COVID
vs
2) death from vaccine.
For 1), see https://www.qcovid.org
For 2, best to use the US VAERS system. Risk about 1 in 32,000 I think.
The UK figures are concealed as well as possible on the govt website while technically being 'published'.
UK Column published them in a more transparent form but has had trouble staying on the air.
This has of course been the practice with COVID since Feb. 2020, i.e. lies and damned lies but very few real statistics.
1) vaccines are about getting herd immunity. I do it to protect myself and others
2) I plan on aging....
(This is always about 2 days ahead of the covid dashboard)
Total number in hospital up to 879 as of this morning. Last fourteen days in order:
745-742-743-748-755-773-776-801-779-805-782-807-860-879
- This is always very wobbly (and has been as high as 797 only 2 days before that 14-day series began, so the start point is arguably artificially depressed.
- The rise is primarily driven by the North West (up from 166 to 246 - but the rate of climb seems to be slowing there) and the East of England (38 to 68, and again the rate of climb may be slowing). Slight climb in the South East as well, but this may be fluctuations.
- Admissions
Total number in mechanical ventilation beds in England up to 140. Last fourteen days in order:
115-110-116-112-115-110-123-116-124-119-124-131-133-140
Still early days, but it looks like a genuine slight rise.
- Again driven primarily by the North West (up from 23 beds to 47) and a teeny bit by the East of England (from 5 to 10, but I'm not going "Argh! 100% increase!" because come on; tiny numbers. And we hit 10 there five days ago, so it looks to be a step change rather than dramatic rising curve
I think the takeaway is that there's definitely a rise, but it's overwhelmingly in the hotspots (at the moment, anyway), and it's considerably shallower than it was in any previous wave (unsurprisingly).
Rather than a straightforward exponential rise, it will be a different shape: one with a decreasing exponent over time (vax reducing the exponent), so if it's shallow now, it will shallow even further. It may even end up going linear for a while and then curving down.
Qcovid uses about 1 in 50. Fine for when we're locked down, but I'd prefer not to be locked down. Opening up without herd immunity means everyone gets that risk, so 50 times the level
For 2, remember that VAERS is heavily abused by the antivaxxer loons. To illustrate this, someone successfully reported being turned into the Incredible Hulk by a vaccine and it went onto VAERS. So VAERS tends only to be cited by antivaxxer idiots these days.
The denialist fools have always been abusing "statistics" and lies; sadly some still believe them even now.
Meanwhile on cases, if you look at specimen date rather than reported, England is flat lining at about 5k a day since the bank holiday - with falls in the original hot spots being offset by spread to new areas. Until we have a hot spot keep going and grow to anywhere near it's Jan level, there is no flashing red light.
Barring a variant a whole lot more deadly than Delta, Covid-19 is effectively finished as an emergency. It's just that a lot of the scientists either can't see it, or don't want to.
Some people think that by protesting vigorously about freedoms (eg to go to Tesco sans mask) they signal themselves as a slightly superior form of being to the lumpen masses. One who is rather more rugged and elevated. Bit braver. More independent of thought. Less easily cowed by Authority. Less swayed by Groupthink.
Such people will often declare when you run into them that "Anybody who sacrifices a little liberty for extra security deserves neither liberty nor security."
To which one can only reply, "Yes indeed. Can you pass the salt?"
I think - like in the US - they're happy with a certain base level of Covid as they reopen their economies. They're not aiming for zero, they're asking "can we reopen our economies, and have a level of infections and hospitalisations we can deal with?"
And they're coming up with the answer "yes".
That means we will go:
June:
1,000
1,200
1,440
1,728
July:
2,074
2,488
2,986
3,583
August:
4,300
5,160
6,192
7,430
Those numbers are not great, but they're also well below what we've seen historically in the UK.
But they're also unlikely to be realised. Why?
Because they are running up against the number of people unvaccinated (or single vaccinated) relentlessly falling. By the end of August, how many unvaccinated people are there going to be in the UK?
It's also really important to realise that right now the number of potential CV19 hosts is falling, and that fall is accelerating.
If you go from 100 unvaccinated people to 90, that's only a 10% reduction in the number of hosts. If you go from 30 to 20, that's a 33% drop. So, from the virus's point of view, the UK is becoming an ever more hostile place to be.
Then depending what "prioritize" means, that could be consistent with anything from 0% overseas aid to a very chunky % indeed.
But anyway, yes, I get you.
They have thrown their offspring to the wolves.
'Worst onlyfans ever!'
And whilst it might be that the situation in June isn't what it was in December, it would be inhuman for that experience not to have an impact and engender an excess of caution.
My colleague has a cat who hijacks pretty much every video call into an onlyfans.
I've seen way too much of that cat's arsehole these last fifteen months.
At first glance, you might take your pick of the upper echelons of the SNP administration — from John Swinney to Humza Yousaf.
But you get bonus points if you plumped for head honcho Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive — the numero uno administrator.
He’s an enigmatic type, or has been until recently: we know from Twitter that he cooks for his wife Nicola Sturgeon, and they squabble over decorating the Christmas tree.
https://graham-grant.medium.com/no-matter-the-problems-at-the-top-of-the-snp-sturgeon-is-hardly-likely-to-sack-her-own-husband-5faf54431b4c
He's back like a bad penny day in, and day out.
Our Corbynite economics IS risky. Its f8cking risky. Its f8cking suicidal. Especially when other countries are moving away from this approach and getting back to normal.
Think the markets won't react? possibly in a disorderly fashion? Johnson could be dead in the water if there's a run on the bond market or sterling.
If this goes on we cannot rule that out.
Having said that, the beds occupied data is 2 days more timely than admissions, and strongly suggests that tomorrow's admissions figure will look ugly.