Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
Let's get some money to close the deficit by putting the names up for sponsorship.
Milton Keynes won't mind being "Red Bull Racing Constituency", and there will be some fun competitiveness with South Northamptonshire Mercedes Racing Constituency not far down the road.
It'll also make Boundary Reviews even more fun and prominent as the various CEOs argue why their constituency shouldn't lose a ward.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
From how it's worded, *any* outcome other than full relaxation (as previously planned) is counted as delay.
So any minor restrictions remaining would count as a "delay".
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Hmmm. So that is the look that all the 20-something estate agents are trying for - nice to know.
That's my sit on the train suits.
I prefer pinstripes, and plan to order a blue pinstripe suit later on this month.
Sadly I'm barred from wearing morning suits, replete with double breasted waistcoat, at work.
What a horrifying confession. It’s tweed jacket, moleskins, and brown shoes on the train (one has been in the country) and a change into a suit and black shoes at work.
No. You are perfectly well allowed to wear a tweed jacket, with otherwise your normal city attire, on Mondays and Fridays to reflect your movements.
So long as you don’t encourage dangerously subversive behaviour like slip on shoes or a dinner jacket before 1800 in town.
Why shouldn't people have worn dinner jackets in the 18th century?
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
I can see ending all legal restrictions on private companies but public bodies (eg railways, tubes, govt offices, etc) restrictions remain.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
From how it's worded, *any* outcome other than full relaxation (as previously planned) is counted as delay.
So any minor restrictions remaining would count as a "delay".
Presumably, switching formal restrictions for guidance wouldn’t though?
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
Would be tempting to suggest that Labour's plans for a largely unitary system would have been even more forward thinking.
Hmmm. So that is the look that all the 20-something estate agents are trying for - nice to know.
That's my sit on the train suits.
I prefer pinstripes, and plan to order a blue pinstripe suit later on this month.
Sadly I'm barred from wearing morning suits, replete with double breasted waistcoat, at work.
Get yourself to Ascot for some relief then.
I've been to Ascot, not really my kind of event.
As a good Muslim boy a place where there's gambling and lots of alcohol really isn't my milieu.
I actually saw a few fights last time I went there and there were also a plethora of escorts in my hotel.
That is a good point. There are often a few scraps at the races these days. I always (used to) advise people not to have their stag parties at the races because: breakfast 9am drink, coach to races 10-12 midday drink, arrive at races either box or tent drink, coach back 5-6pm drink pub/bar/club onwards drink.
You are on for 12-15 hours drinking.
That said I do occasionally get hammered at Cheltenham.
I think the amount of free booze you can get via corporate hospitality is a mistake, it wasn't just 'chavs' fighthing.
I don't think the dress code helps either, men sweating in hats and three piece suits, and women showing off a bit of décolletage leading to were you perving at my bird is a toxic mix.
Yep a heady cocktail. Gotta love us brits.
I've been to Cheltenham, Doncaster, and York for big event weeks and nothing like that happens, I think I put it down to the weather/dress code.
If you buy a silk hanky at the same time for the top pocket do you get to claim your suit cost more than £2k?
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
From how it's worded, *any* outcome other than full relaxation (as previously planned) is counted as delay.
So any minor restrictions remaining would count as a "delay".
Presumably, switching formal restrictions for guidance wouldn’t though?
You may remember the behaviour of the bookies over the results of the American election? Be prepared for many words to be said.
Hampstead’s not going to be very happy, split in half right along the high street like that.
Indeed the proposals for central north London are bizarre - look at “Kentish Town and Bloomsbury” - from the top of Hampstead Heath at Kenwood down to just short of Covent Garden.
And the biggest insult of all - neither the words Hampstead (apart from ‘West Hampstead - which for NW3 heaps insult on insult!) nor Highgate figure in any constituency name at all. I put money on those boundaries and titles not surviving the consultation!
That's the biggest split yet in terms of 2nd doses dominating 1sts. Wales is up to 86.6% of adult population vaccinated - evidence of demand limitation starting to come in ?
It's the equivalent of about 41,000 UK wide first doses.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
Michael Carberry sounds like a total moron. He would probably consider a criminal conviction to be less serious than an offensive tweet.
I am still struggling to see how anyone could actually be offended by Robinson’s tweets.
The whole episode is surreal. Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel?
Yes me too. I can’t see what he said that was offensive, let alone offensive enough to ban him from playing for his country all this time later. Truly bizarre
That's the biggest split yet in terms of 2nd doses dominating 1sts. Wales is up to 86.6% of adult population vaccinated - evidence of demand limitation starting to come in ?
It's the equivalent of about 41,000 UK wide first doses.
Last tuesday was quieter for 1st doses though.
Are holidaymakers from Lloegr being vaccinated on request?
QE and rate rises is what I’ve been advocating for a number of years.
Problem with QE is that it effectively gives money to those who need it least i.e. with plenty of assets. If you are going to raise interest rates, it is far better to have wage inflation so that people can afford to pay their mortgages.
Fastly say they’ve fixed it. Now, how long for all the very confused DNS servers to sort themselves out?
Thankyou for waiting. One of our advisers will be with you shortly. Please bear in mind that abuse and personal attacks on staff will not be tolerated. All calls are recorded for staff training and monitoring purposes.
"@edwinpootsmla I will be making further announcements over the course of today in relation to posts within the Assembly and Executive. Watch this space."
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
Heath also almost formed the first postwar Conservative-Liberal coalition government in February 1974 with Jeremy Thorpe until negotiations broke down, 36 years before Cameron formed the Conservative-LD coalition government with Nick Clegg.
"@edwinpootsmla I will be making further announcements over the course of today in relation to posts within the Assembly and Executive. Watch this space."
When the Indie lainched in 1985 I was an 11 year old deeply pretentious Adrian Molesque wannabe intellectual and made a point of buying it and reading it on the way to school to emphasise what an intellectual free thinker I was.
When I was 11 we were living in Bruxelles. My dad used to get La Dernière Heure, Le Soir, La Libé, Les Échos and some weird air mail version of the previous day's Times. I used to rip the sports pages out of La DH to read on the tram on my way to school as I was a Roger De Vlaeminck wannabe.
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
Heath also almost formed the first postwar Conservative-Liberal coalition government in February 1974 with Jeremy Thorpe until negotiations broke down, 36 years before Cameron formed the Conservative-LD coalition government with Nick Clegg.
Thorpe was tougher about electoral reform than Clegg, though, and Heath (or perhaps some of his team) wouldn't have it.
Has there been a new round of Town Fund allocations?
My area - Ashfield - has just been announced as getting £62m. Sounds reasonably significant.
Ashfield Independents thanking Lee Anderson, which is ... radical.
"Councils had been asked to put bids together for £25million for both Kirkby and Sutton. Ashfield District Council upped the ante an ambitious bid for £62million. A bid that was ultimately successful.
Major projects focussed on skills and business development, new and improved leisure, sports and health facilities and town centre regeneration projects are some of the ways that Ashfield District Council plan to change Sutton-in-Ashfield and Kirkby-in-Ashfield for the better.
Councillor Matthew Relf, the Council’s Cabinet Member for Place, Planning and Regeneration and Ashfield Independent councillor for Sutton Junction and Harlow Wood said, “This is great news not just for Kirkby and Sutton but also for the whole of Ashfield and the wider area."
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
I can see ending all legal restrictions on private companies but public bodies (eg railways, tubes, govt offices, etc) restrictions remain.
Depending upon the details, I think I could live with that.
Hampstead’s not going to be very happy, split in half right along the high street like that.
Indeed the proposals for central north London are bizarre - look at “Kentish Town and Bloomsbury” - from the top of Hampstead Heath at Kenwood down to just short of Covent Garden.
And the biggest insult of all - neither the words Hampstead (apart from ‘West Hampstead - which for NW3 heaps insult on insult!) nor Highgate figure in any constituency name at all. I put money on those boundaries and titles not surviving the consultation!
The Hampstead proposals are a total mess.
The Kentish Town and Bloomsbury seat actually looks like the old Holborn and St Pancras constituency which has the same features i.e. the top of Highgate village to towards Covent Garden. The boundary between Camden and Haringay is actually on Highgate High Street so that makes some sense.
The Hampstead one just looks weird. It will be an interesting seat. i'm assuming Labour will win but some wealthy areas in that seat.
Tim Farron looks done on the boundary changes, his Kendall stronghold and better rural wards split asunder.
Let's face it, he is no great loss. A disastrous leader of the Lib Dems, at least as bad as most of his successors, with no interesting ideas that I can remember.
His constituents seemed to like him
Absolutely. He may be a poor Lib Dem leader but he seems a well liked constituency MP
IIRC, our Ms Cyclefree, who now lives close to, if not in, his area seemed to think well of him.
He is a very good constituency MP - and has really worked hard for the hospitality and outdoor activity centres over the last year. Far better than Trudi Harrison, who's been silent and useless, despite having a background in tourism.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
Tell my Daughter about it. This has been going on for 15 months now ......
I reckon Swindon South could be a gain for Labour.
What are the changes there? That had a 7k Con majority in the last election.
It is pretty ridiculous, cutting off two parts of Swindon South to join with rural Wiltshire hinterland. Presumably a numbers based necessity.
I'm on board with changes which cross local authority boundaries, it's a fact of life if you want roughly equal constituencies - and I think that is a reasonable aim - that you cannot avoid such sometimes. There are limits though.
But the 1st draft is always ripped up a bit I think, as they go hard on 'the numbers force our hand' and then see what reaction they get to make compromises elsewhere. Second draft is likely the key, with any third draft marginal stuff and name changes.
Hmmm. So that is the look that all the 20-something estate agents are trying for - nice to know.
That's my sit on the train suits.
I prefer pinstripes, and plan to order a blue pinstripe suit later on this month.
Sadly I'm barred from wearing morning suits, replete with double breasted waistcoat, at work.
Get yourself to Ascot for some relief then.
I've been to Ascot, not really my kind of event.
As a good Muslim boy a place where there's gambling and lots of alcohol really isn't my milieu.
I actually saw a few fights last time I went there and there were also a plethora of escorts in my hotel.
That is a good point. There are often a few scraps at the races these days. I always (used to) advise people not to have their stag parties at the races because: breakfast 9am drink, coach to races 10-12 midday drink, arrive at races either box or tent drink, coach back 5-6pm drink pub/bar/club onwards drink.
You are on for 12-15 hours drinking.
That said I do occasionally get hammered at Cheltenham.
I think the amount of free booze you can get via corporate hospitality is a mistake, it wasn't just 'chavs' fighthing.
I don't think the dress code helps either, men sweating in hats and three piece suits, and women showing off a bit of décolletage leading to were you perving at my bird is a toxic mix.
Yep a heady cocktail. Gotta love us brits.
I've been to Cheltenham, Doncaster, and York for big event weeks and nothing like that happens, I think I put it down to the weather/dress code.
If you buy a silk hanky at the same time for the top pocket do you get to claim your suit cost more than £2k?
Daughter's response this morning to Times front page saying that further easing of restrictions may be delayed by between two weeks and a month unprintable even for this forum.
OTOH she has managed to book her 1st and 2nd vaccinations: this Sunday and August Bank Holiday.
It's like a real life version of snakes and ladders.
I'd say that for my gym, since it was started about 6 years ago.
We have lost perhaps 2 years of time, mainly because of Planning issues or trying to find suitable premises. Most spectacularly when the Planning Officer after working with us for months on a change of use, on the last morning pulled a not-mentioned 3 year time limit on the change of use out of his backside and got it signed off into a decision without even telling us. Which cannot be amended short of a several-month process.
Fortunately it is coming out of lockdown far stronger than it went in, and the young majority owner has turned into a delightfully hard-bitten swine when it comes to dealing with bureaucrats and awkward service providers.
The place has been internally virtually rebuilt, and membership is already increasing vigorously.
Has anything been done to Theresa May's constituency?
Will she be moving on?
I get the impression that she quite enjoys being a backbench MP.
Made smaller - it's lost Hurst, Ruscombe, and the bit up to the edge of Henley.
Henley is a strange constituency, but perhaps it just needs to be renamed? Henley is right at the border of the constituency and if you cross the Thames there then you switch to Wokingham. That is less than 500m from the centre of Henley! At the other extreme you have Elsfield which is a village to the NE of Oxford but 35km from the centre of Henley. It would make more sense to call the constituency South-East Oxfordshire or Henley and Thame.
Why not call it "Midsomer" ?
I think elections would be so much more interesting if the different parties contested on the basis of different constituency boundaries. So the Tories chose how the constituencies were drawn for them, Labour for them, and so on.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
You are right on that score - yes, it should be data not dates, and that will add an element of unavoidable uncertainty to things, but particularly at this stage, where even a change for the worse puts us in a far better position than months ago, businesses need to know with more assurance what is likely to happen - many of the measures are very prohibitive, and will take some time to sort out if things change.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
Michael Carberry sounds like a total moron. He would probably consider a criminal conviction to be less serious than an offensive tweet.
I am still struggling to see how anyone could actually be offended by Robinson’s tweets.
The whole episode is surreal. Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel?
Yes me too. I can’t see what he said that was offensive, let alone offensive enough to ban him from playing for his country all this time later. Truly bizarre
OK so not just me then. I assumed I hadn't seen all the tweets (I've seen 5). Not stuff I would have said, but nothing I would object to in the ones I saw.
I do think people have to get a grip on over reacting to humour that uses stereotypes. I think it should be plain to all whether a joke that relies on a stereotype is innocent fun/satire or whether it is actually racist/homophobic/sexist/ageist/disability/etc trait that would offend and says a lot about the joke tellers true views. I think I can tell if a joke is harmless and one that is offensive, but maybe that is in my eyes only.
I would like to add another observation that has occurred to me. I always used to listen or watch PMQ's every week. I certainly haven't done so since lockdown. I suspect its because the opposition is so ineffective and concentrates on trivial matters eg wallpaper rather than the things that matter to voters.
"@edwinpootsmla I will be making further announcements over the course of today in relation to posts within the Assembly and Executive. Watch this space."
He's expected to name a First Minister, right?
Ridiculous situation. And shows the ridiculousness of things generally, as the NI minister comments on it, and is upbraided for being unhelpful by the Alliance leader, when it seems perfectly reasonable to offer a view, and walking on eggshells around the political prima donnas of NI happens far too often.
I would like to add another observation that has occurred to me. I always used to listen or watch PMQ's every week. I certainly haven't done so since lockdown. I suspect its because the opposition is so ineffective and concentrates on trivial eg wallpaper rather than the things that matter to voters.
I think PMQs is a damp squib the year after a GE in any case, since the answer of the PM to any question will be 'well, the voters disagree, look at my majority'. We're beyond a year of course, but Covid has meant almost being in stasis.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
The draw of the royal yacht was that it was royal, hence invitations were coveted, it offered something no other nation could, where heads of state could kick off their shoes with ours, and it therefore fulfilled a useful diplomatic purpose.
Even if it were 'royal' that doesn't make it unique. Mohammed Bin Salman's yacht is better than this thing is ever going to be.
MBS a has a big boat that looks like every other rich guy’s big boat - even if it’s bigger than almost all of them.
A replacement for Britannia, that looks like the proposed design, is something very different, and quite unique.
The boat has the hallmarks of the great bus designer himself: modernise a 1950s design icon and come up with something that's sort of OK, but not as good as the original was in its time, nor the best of what's available now. And costs more than it should for what you get.
They should just give the Royal Family a yacht and not attempt to justify it with trade deals or worry about sheiks with bigger boats. Monarchs have yachts.
It looks like the boat version of Thomas the Tank Engine.
Seriously naff. Though I expect the drinks cabinet will still be superior to that of MBS.
Tim Farron looks done on the boundary changes, his Kendall stronghold and better rural wards split asunder.
Let's face it, he is no great loss. A disastrous leader of the Lib Dems, at least as bad as most of his successors, with no interesting ideas that I can remember.
His constituents seemed to like him
Absolutely. He may be a poor Lib Dem leader but he seems a well liked constituency MP
IIRC, our Ms Cyclefree, who now lives close to, if not in, his area seemed to think well of him.
He is a very good constituency MP - and has really worked hard for the hospitality and outdoor activity centres over the last year. Far better than Trudi Harrison, who's been silent and useless, despite having a background in tourism.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
Tell my Daughter about it. This has been going on for 15 months now ......
For what it is worth, Ms Cyclefree, you both have my sympathy.
Who in parliament is giving people like this a voice? in my view, right now, it is nobody.
Hampstead’s not going to be very happy, split in half right along the high street like that.
Indeed the proposals for central north London are bizarre - look at “Kentish Town and Bloomsbury” - from the top of Hampstead Heath at Kenwood down to just short of Covent Garden.
And the biggest insult of all - neither the words Hampstead (apart from ‘West Hampstead - which for NW3 heaps insult on insult!) nor Highgate figure in any constituency name at all. I put money on those boundaries and titles not surviving the consultation!
The Hampstead proposals are a total mess.
The Kentish Town and Bloomsbury seat actually looks like the old Holborn and St Pancras constituency which has the same features i.e. the top of Highgate village to towards Covent Garden. The boundary between Camden and Haringay is actually on Highgate High Street so that makes some sense.
The Hampstead one just looks weird. It will be an interesting seat. i'm assuming Labour will win but some wealthy areas in that seat.
Hampstead is one of the wealthiest areas of the country which should help the Tories but it is also ultra Remain and full of graduates which means Labour will win whichever area it is in comfortably, indeed in 2019 while Labour won Hampstead and Kilburn with 49%, the LDs on 22.9% were only just behind the Tories on 24.2% for second place
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
They were badly thought through, bureaucratic, unpopular and partly undone by subsequent governments. Incompetent technocracy - classic Heath actually.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
You are right on that score - yes, it should be data not dates, and that will add an element of unavoidable uncertainty to things, but particularly at this stage, where even a change for the worse puts us in a far better position than months ago, businesses need to know with more assurance what is likely to happen - many of the measures are very prohibitive, and will take some time to sort out if things change.
It is far, far worse than you portray it sir. Far worse.
'Take some time to sort out' = bankruptcy and worse for countless thousands.
Tim Farron looks done on the boundary changes, his Kendall stronghold and better rural wards split asunder.
Let's face it, he is no great loss. A disastrous leader of the Lib Dems, at least as bad as most of his successors, with no interesting ideas that I can remember.
His constituents seemed to like him
Absolutely. He may be a poor Lib Dem leader but he seems a well liked constituency MP
IIRC, our Ms Cyclefree, who now lives close to, if not in, his area seemed to think well of him.
He is a very good constituency MP - and has really worked hard for the hospitality and outdoor activity centres over the last year. Far better than Trudi Harrison, who's been silent and useless, despite having a background in tourism.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
Tell my Daughter about it. This has been going on for 15 months now ......
It is beyond a joke now. Enough.
I don't know if Miss Cyclefree Jr hosts receptions, but I mentioned yesterday that the weddings situation has reached the status of utter fiasco.
Brides were promised a decision on 24 May. The government temporised. Now many have had to pay their nonrefundable deposits, which they will lose if the government blocks the liberalisation on guest numbers planned for 21 June.
Moreover, they will have to cancel the weddings with just a few days' notice.
Hampstead’s not going to be very happy, split in half right along the high street like that.
Indeed the proposals for central north London are bizarre - look at “Kentish Town and Bloomsbury” - from the top of Hampstead Heath at Kenwood down to just short of Covent Garden.
And the biggest insult of all - neither the words Hampstead (apart from ‘West Hampstead - which for NW3 heaps insult on insult!) nor Highgate figure in any constituency name at all. I put money on those boundaries and titles not surviving the consultation!
The Hampstead proposals are a total mess.
The Kentish Town and Bloomsbury seat actually looks like the old Holborn and St Pancras constituency which has the same features i.e. the top of Highgate village to towards Covent Garden. The boundary between Camden and Haringay is actually on Highgate High Street so that makes some sense.
The Hampstead one just looks weird. It will be an interesting seat. i'm assuming Labour will win but some wealthy areas in that seat.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
@Malmesbury BYO is much better because company issued equipment is usually dogsh*t.
Depends on the company, we kit out everyone with a brand new MacBook Pro or Dell XPS depending on the team they sit in. It's pre configured by Apple/Dell as well which saves a lot of IT hassle.
Quite a few banks have moved completely to VMs - so the expected mode of working *was* desktop at the office, use your own machine to log in from home to check something. Laptops are/were rare.
This made lots of sense about nothing to lose on the train/in the bar, nothing to carry, no persistence of data locally etc.
In the new world?
We have had laptops for at least 20 years, then again I have worked from home for 20 years as well, they pay for desk , chairs , iphone , etc. Have to pay own broadband nowadays as it is seen as basic part of household now.
Hampstead’s not going to be very happy, split in half right along the high street like that.
Indeed the proposals for central north London are bizarre - look at “Kentish Town and Bloomsbury” - from the top of Hampstead Heath at Kenwood down to just short of Covent Garden.
And the biggest insult of all - neither the words Hampstead (apart from ‘West Hampstead - which for NW3 heaps insult on insult!) nor Highgate figure in any constituency name at all. I put money on those boundaries and titles not surviving the consultation!
The Hampstead proposals are a total mess.
The Kentish Town and Bloomsbury seat actually looks like the old Holborn and St Pancras constituency which has the same features i.e. the top of Highgate village to towards Covent Garden. The boundary between Camden and Haringay is actually on Highgate High Street so that makes some sense.
The Hampstead one just looks weird. It will be an interesting seat. i'm assuming Labour will win but some wealthy areas in that seat.
Eh? "But"?
Wealthy areas *therefore* Labour will win.
Wealthy areas with housing that is mainly rented and full of graduates Labour does win now
Looking at Wales, the 22 'areas' over 18 population totals to 2595943 as does the 7 health boards. Unknown is 29,979 and "outside Wales" is 19,519. "Wales" and "outside Wales" are 2,625,922 and 19,519.
That all sums through to 2,645,441 which implies first dose uptake of 82.6% not 86.5% - a rather smaller advantage than is commonly believed over England.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
I can see ending all legal restrictions on private companies but public bodies (eg railways, tubes, govt offices, etc) restrictions remain.
That’s pretty much what New York State will be moving to as soon as we have 70% of adults with one dose (we were at 68.6% as of yesterday). Once we hit that measure private businesses will be free to decide what, if any, measures they wish to apply. Healthcare will continue to require mask wearing as will public transport as that’s subject to a federal mandate, currently in force to September.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
I can see ending all legal restrictions on private companies but public bodies (eg railways, tubes, govt offices, etc) restrictions remain.
Depending upon the details, I think I could live with that.
Agreed. I could live with that for now. Would be a decent compromise and protect businesses/weddings from disaster.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Thinking about Smarkets' "All legal limits on social contact to be removed on 21 June" market ("NO" is now trading at 1.02 by the way) if 21 June goes ahead but legal restrictions will remain on a particular thing - say, mass gatherings, then this would need particular legislation wouldn't it? Would there be time for this between 14th and 21st June?
I'm assuming it's ok to say that these lads consider themselves British rather than Scottish? With Woke England taking the knee, who are they going to support?
Looking at Wales, the 22 'areas' over 18 population totals to 2595943 as does the 7 health boards. Unknown is 29,979 and "outside Wales" is 19,519. "Wales" and "outside Wales" are 2,625,922 and 19,519.
That all sums through to 2,645,441 which implies first dose uptake of 82.6% not 86.5% - a rather smaller advantage than is commonly believed over England.
That sounds close to a NIMS vs ONS 2019 difference....
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
That is not true though Philip. Even if there's a delay, the government will attach their perennial 'rule nothing out' bullsh8t as a rider. So the two week delay is similarly meaningless. That too will be 'data dependent'. Nothing is committed to, ever.
They simply will not commit to anything, at any time, either on the upside or downside ratchet of these restrictions. They don't even rule out ratcheting up the restrictions in the autumn if they feel like it.
Essentially they want and have carte blanche to interfere with the lives of ordinary people when they want, and in the way that they want. Open ended. Ad infinitum.
Only Cameron and Blair have made it to be PM from LOTO within the last 42 years. Nations with lower (Outside of dictatorships) turnover in that time period - PAP (Singapore), who else ?
You need to be able to dazzle to go from LotO to PM. That’s all I ever really said, it’s tough.
Tories don't give Ted Heath enough credit for his achievement in 1970.
That's probably because he didn't do anything remotely conservative with it.
(Except taking us into the Common Market, which was Conservative at the time, but now, perhaps slightly less so).
His local government reforms were awesome.
They were badly thought through, bureaucratic, unpopular and partly undone by subsequent governments. Incompetent technocracy - classic Heath actually.
In hindsight though its a case of "look what we had". The Metropolitan counties are only now being put back together in the form of Metro mayors. The idea that you take a big urban area like Manchester and scrap central planning and coordination is madness and frankly was deliberate wrecking when it was done by Thatcher. And the less said about the 1990s reforms the better.
Have a town council that deals with flower beds and dog poo bins. Have a regional council that manages services and planning. A national government that manages (a far greater list of) devolved issues. And then a federal UK government.
We need to get rid of this stupid patchwork of former metro councils and unitary authorities and county / district 2fers.
To answer a question I posed earlier, I think the new E Mids constituency is Rutland & Stamford a cross between parts of Lincs and Rutland. Rutland is too small to have one seat so must be a county cross somewhere.
Sounds like a tasty seat for life for some aspiring young Tory?
IMHO, Labour would have won Watford on the new boundaries, with Abbots Langley and other bits of Three Rivers being excluded, and Bushey North included.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
That is not true though Philip. Even if there's a delay, the government will attach their perennial 'rule nothing out' bullsh8t as a rider. So the two week delay is similarly meaningless. That too will be 'data dependent'. Nothing is committed to, ever.
They simply will not commit to anything, at any time, either on the upside or downside ratchet of these restrictions. They don't even rule out ratcheting up the restrictions in the autumn if they feel like it.
Essentially they want and have carte blanche to interfere with the lives of ordinary people when they want, and in the way that they want. Open ended. Ad infinitum.
That's just not true though. The openings of Phases 1, 2 and 3 were all committed to one week before they happened. For Phase 4 that's 14 June.
"Rule nothing out" is not bullshit, its reality. Nothing is ever ruled out and you're in denial if you think it is. But each of these steps for lifting lockdown have so far happened on schedule and should be irreversible.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
Michael Carberry sounds like a total moron. He would probably consider a criminal conviction to be less serious than an offensive tweet.
I am still struggling to see how anyone could actually be offended by Robinson’s tweets.
The whole episode is surreal. Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel?
Yes me too. I can’t see what he said that was offensive, let alone offensive enough to ban him from playing for his country all this time later. Truly bizarre
OK so not just me then. I assumed I hadn't seen all the tweets (I've seen 5). Not stuff I would have said, but nothing I would object to in the ones I saw.
I do think people have to get a grip on over reacting to humour that uses stereotypes. I think it should be plain to all whether a joke that relies on a stereotype is innocent fun/satire or whether it is actually racist/homophobic/sexist/ageist/disability/etc trait that would offend and says a lot about the joke tellers true views. I think I can tell if a joke is harmless and one that is offensive, but maybe that is in my eyes only.
Yep. From what I saw, I think it was bad humour and offensive, but until recently this was not illegal and accepted as a consequence of free speech. There is hardly a smoking gun.
However, as I have said before, we have an lynch mob who believe that in digging up this stuff they will root out the causes of Trump and Brexit and restore societal progress and enlightenment. But actually they are reversing centuries of civilisation, as they are endorsing a system of punishment without law.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
As someone normally on the side of what the reactionaries call the woke, two things need to be said. Of course people can change, otherwise there would be no point educating about racism at all, if everyones mind is already set. Secondly very few of us would want to be judged by our worst teenage actions, or stand up well to such scrutiny, once we are in our mid twenties or beyond.
And yet this story illustrates precisely the dangers that the 'reactionaries' have been warning you about all along: in the Church of Woke, anyone can be denounced for the smallest of heresies, and there is no forgiveness and no redemption.
Perhaps the reactionaries had a point after all?
I was certainly irresponsible at university. I got drunk and fell in a gutter, nicked a traffic cone, threw up in a taxi, told off-colour jokes, was a bit cheeky to a couple of lecturers, used the word "gay" to mean crap/pants/sad - as was normal at the time amongst all my friends of whatever persuasion - and was a bit of a letch on the dancefloor, and even got slapped once. However, most of the time I was fine, I had lots of fun, learnt a lot, made great friends, and had some gorgeous and intelligent girlfriends.
It's called growing up. But, if any of that had been tweeted at the time, I'd probably be finished.
I don't blame young people for being so uptight and snowflakey when they have all that to deal with. I would be.
You sound positively saintly. I've done much worse. Fortunately, pre social media.
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
I feel so incredibly sorry for one of the presumably many whose futures are staked on the 'will we, won't we' of 21 June, via their businesses.
The mental torture must be absolutely horrendous. Yesterday Johnson seemed to suggest it was going ahead as planned, and today we have the report in the Times of a delay. On/off, on/off. Incessantly, right up to the final moment, which it increasingly looks like will be a crushing disappointment.
Talk about a roller coaster. Poor people.
You are right on that score - yes, it should be data not dates, and that will add an element of unavoidable uncertainty to things, but particularly at this stage, where even a change for the worse puts us in a far better position than months ago, businesses need to know with more assurance what is likely to happen - many of the measures are very prohibitive, and will take some time to sort out if things change.
The problem with the data not dates line is it was absolutely dates not data at every step so far. The comically bad modellers must be greatful for a new variant they didn't include in their modelling which may help to keep them within 2 orders of magnitude on the true figures.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
This is what too much compliance breeds. Overweening arrogance and callousness. Ministers tweet vaccination numbers excitedly, because they are excited. Not just by the protection offered, but by the astonishing levels of compliance. Look at what we can make people do!
I note that everyone is following a quote from a "Cabinet Minister".
Is this the same reliable source that told us that the Chancellor was going to do absolutely nothing in the face of the lockdown - an hour before the Chancellor stood up to announce a tidal wave of money (furlough etc)? Or a different, reliable source?
Ah, so we can expect Number 10 to junk this story soon. That's a relief!
Yes, its already been junked as "too early to say" (which was always the official line) and on Monday 14 June when the announcement is actually made there'll be something to say then.
Indeed. 14th June is when a keen as mustard, agog nation will hear whether 21st June is ON or will be delayed. And a quick reminder as to how the decision will be made. There'll be 2 key questions considered:
Can it go ahead with little or no risk to the NHS? - YES/NO Is a delay in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson? - YES/NO
The combination of answers will then drive the outcome as follows:
YES/YES - Delay YES/NO - Go ahead NO/YES - Delay NO/NO - Go ahead
From this we see that it's only the 2nd question we need to answer in order to make a confident prediction.
And can we answer it? Yes, I think we can. The answer is NO. A delay (other than for trivia like a bit of masking here and there) is not in the personal political interests of Boris Johnson. There's a possible benefit to him in that it'd make him look (to some people) prudent and very very circumspect and thoughtful. But this would be outweighed by the downside. Trouble in the party. Messaging problems (since YES is the objective answer to question 1). And most importantly, loss of the long planned Joy & Relief dividend to coincide with the Summer Solstice.
So my call is - ignore the Times, it's on.
That's pretty much exactly my view, despite ominous noises in the Times from an unnamed Cabinet Minister whose name may or may not begin with 'Micha' and end with 'el Gove'. Keep the popular guidance on WFH and masks on public transport, then ditch as much of the rest as possible.
As of 5 June, we crossed the 100 doses per 100 mark, and therefore were 81.8% of the way to Israel's level, and on course to overtake them in less than 4 weeks...
Yep, the Times takes a breather from its war on Stonewall in order to confuse us on something else.
I think we have this right but I guess there is a chance that we haven't. Say the magnificent muscly man is very keen to do something which counteracts what he views as possible slow burn damage from that "let the bodies pile" comment. And on top of this he sees strong support amongst the all important "charity begins at home" and "many a mickle makes a muckle" and "better safe than sorry" demographic.
Might just sway it in favour of a serious and proper delay. I'd put this at 20%.
I just got 11.5 with Smarkets on "yes". That's an extraordinary price. Has something concrete bee n announced?
Oh. Now I'm worried.
So the market says a 90% chance of the government announcing that Step 4 is delayed?
I think that's right.
I think they’ll split the difference. Someone was above was right to flag that working from home by default is popular, and otherwise I can see some change to distancing guidance in pubs and sports grounds, to make us feel more free.
Ending all legal restrictions, but recommending work from home if possible, fulfills Step 4.
I can see ending all legal restrictions on private companies but public bodies (eg railways, tubes, govt offices, etc) restrictions remain.
Depending upon the details, I think I could live with that.
Depends where liability sits. Reality is most large private decision makers on this just want to be forced 1 way or the other given they have millions of customers who feel strongly on both sides. That suggestion just looks like a buggers muddle.
That police officer has pleaded guilty to the kidnap and rape of Sarah Everard.
But he was not asked to give a plea regard the murder charge.
Seems weird, the way they structure the charges.
He’s getting life for kidnap and rape anyway, and raises questions about how someone so screwed up can serve as armed police.
I assume this is grounds to detain him awaiting sentencing, rather than pre-plea?
He’s on remand already. Reading other reports, it appears that the murder charge has not been put to him yet, because psychological reports on his mental state have not been completed - so he’ll be back in court at a later date in July, to plead on that charge.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
Precisely. The Government could make the decision on 14 June for 21 June, or they could make the decision on 14 June for 14 July. One gives a week's notice, the other a month's notice, but the month's notice one guarantees the loss of trade from 21 June to 14 July so is the extra notice worth that?
Looking at Wales, the 22 'areas' over 18 population totals to 2595943 as does the 7 health boards. Unknown is 29,979 and "outside Wales" is 19,519. "Wales" and "outside Wales" are 2,625,922 and 19,519.
That all sums through to 2,645,441 which implies first dose uptake of 82.6% not 86.5% - a rather smaller advantage than is commonly believed over England.
That sounds close to a NIMS vs ONS 2019 difference....
The advantage is probably still there then as NIMS England is larger than ONS England too.
Hoyle was witlessly naïve there. He must have thought that after he rejected the rebels' amendment, the government would engage in a bit of give and take. No chance. The Speaker needs to be a bit street wise or this government will walk all over him. Bring back Bercow!
Looking at Wales, the 22 'areas' over 18 population totals to 2595943 as does the 7 health boards. Unknown is 29,979 and "outside Wales" is 19,519. "Wales" and "outside Wales" are 2,625,922 and 19,519.
That all sums through to 2,645,441 which implies first dose uptake of 82.6% not 86.5% - a rather smaller advantage than is commonly believed over England.
That sounds close to a NIMS vs ONS 2019 difference....
The advantage is probably still there then as NIMS England is larger than ONS England too.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
A lovely typo - I often visit the pub with fiends.
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
Precisely. The Government could make the decision on 14 June for 21 June, or they could make the decision on 14 June for 14 July. One gives a week's notice, the other a month's notice, but the month's notice one guarantees the loss of trade from 21 June to 14 July so is the extra notice worth that?
Another possibility would have been make a decision on 1 June for 21 June of course. Or ended legal restrictions at the time the likes of Denmark did.
IMHO, Labour would have won Watford on the new boundaries, with Abbots Langley and other bits of Three Rivers being excluded, and Bushey North included.
41st on the Labour target list, so Starmer gets 1 guaranteed gain next time then
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
However, Michael Carberry, who played six Tests for England between 2010 and 2014, told 5 Live that Robinson "wouldn't be playing Test cricket" if it was up to him, adding: "I don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone."
I presume he also believes criminals must all be locked up forever....as they also clearly can't be reformed.
As someone normally on the side of what the reactionaries call the woke, two things need to be said. Of course people can change, otherwise there would be no point educating about racism at all, if everyones mind is already set. Secondly very few of us would want to be judged by our worst teenage actions, or stand up well to such scrutiny, once we are in our mid twenties or beyond.
And yet this story illustrates precisely the dangers that the 'reactionaries' have been warning you about all along: in the Church of Woke, anyone can be denounced for the smallest of heresies, and there is no forgiveness and no redemption.
Perhaps the reactionaries had a point after all?
I was certainly irresponsible at university. I got drunk and fell in a gutter, nicked a traffic cone, threw up in a taxi, told off-colour jokes, was a bit cheeky to a couple of lecturers, used the word "gay" to mean crap/pants/sad - as was normal at the time amongst all my friends of whatever persuasion - and was a bit of a letch on the dancefloor, and even got slapped once. However, most of the time I was fine, I had lots of fun, learnt a lot, made great friends, and had some gorgeous and intelligent girlfriends.
It's called growing up. But, if any of that had been tweeted at the time, I'd probably be finished.
I don't blame young people for being so uptight and snowflakey when they have all that to deal with. I would be.
You sound positively saintly. I've done much worse. Fortunately, pre social media.
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
I would guess that young people will find ways to adapt to being under continuous surveillance.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
A lovely typo - I often visit the pub with fiends.
Hoyle was witlessly naïve there. He must have thought that after he rejected the rebels' amendment, the government would engage in a bit of give and take. No chance. The Speaker needs to be a bit street wise or this government will walk all over him. Bring back Bercow!
The government have really made the speaker look like a mug. I have no idea why he thought they would play ball.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Can we have Boris on the record ASAP. As Morris and Alex have pointed out, we are doing better than even the BEST CASE Sage scenario.
Boris is on the record as saying nothing in the data to postpone the date.
Until he says otherwise I'd take anonymous briefings from "a Cabinet Minister" with an entire box of salt.
Maybe. But if so it is shocking government discipline verging on criminal.
My guess is that a quote from a "Cabinet Minister" doesn't end up on the front page of The Times by accident and without knowledge from No.10.
They are fucking with us. Fair enough, for many this is no great surprise. But for many others it is seriously damaging to their mental health, financial situation and much else.
If they now open, distress will have been caused by this headline, if they postpone, distress will be caused because they postpone.
No doubt the PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society will cheer on whatever the govt decides and how they decide it.
I wholeheartedly disagree with you.
If Hunt or Gove have a contrarian story they want to leak to the Times with their own spin then they can do so without the knowledge or approval of Number 10. That's rather the point, isn't it?
Anyone who gets distress from a front page headline needs to get a grip. The line all along has been that it will be announced 14 June, if on 14 June its announced that we're opening then who is seriously going to care about a Times article a week earlier? That's preposterous.
As for "PB Govt Covid Appreciation Society" I'm not sure who you include as its members. I can see no valid reason for postponing 21 June and have made my position clear and so have almost all PBers one way or another it seems.
Pubs have to plan. Bookings are being taken. Daughter has a booking for a christening do which she would lose if restrictions continue for a month. Breweries - Heineken - are already limiting the amount she can order in a predetermined period. Staff rotas need to be agreed. Etc.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
I respect all that, but the reality is that today's fish and chip paper doesn't affect how they can and can't plan.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
Agreed, it’s primarily a media problem, rather than a government problem. Government have been clear that they will make the decision this coming weekend based on the data.
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
Precisely. The Government could make the decision on 14 June for 21 June, or they could make the decision on 14 June for 14 July. One gives a week's notice, the other a month's notice, but the month's notice one guarantees the loss of trade from 21 June to 14 July so is the extra notice worth that?
Another possibility would have been make a decision on 1 June for 21 June of course. Or ended legal restrictions at the time the likes of Denmark did.
There was no data on 1 June for 21 June so no if you're following the data then that's not viable.
Besides, the same problem still exists. If the data was there for 1 June to say its safe (incidentally I think it was) then why wait until 21 June? Why not say on 1 June "this is safe, reopen from 8 June"? Why waste 8 - 21 June?
Same issue still exists. There will always be a conflict between letting people reopen ASAP and giving as much notice as possible. The two things run counter to each other.
That police officer has pleaded guilty to the kidnap and rape of Sarah Everard.
But he was not asked to give a plea regard the murder charge.
Seems weird, the way they structure the charges.
He’s getting life for kidnap and rape anyway, and raises questions about how someone so screwed up can serve as armed police.
I assume this is grounds to detain him awaiting sentencing, rather than pre-plea?
He’s on remand already. Reading other reports, it appears that the murder charge has not been put to him yet, because psychological reports on his mental state have not been completed - so he’ll be back in court at a later date in July, to plead on that charge.
He's apparently accepted responsibility for the killing so I imagine the medical reports will relate to his mental state and whether he will plead guilty to manslaughter because of diminished responsibility or something else.
Poor girl. At least her family will be spared the torment of a contested trial.
It's a good point actually, if you were Ollie Robinson who I imagine above all wants to move on and continue making a decent career in cricket, do you really want 'I'm sorry if anyone was offended by my racism' BJ and one of his sock puppets lumbering onto the pitch?
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
This is what I think too.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
Is the the beginning of a fall-out between the Johnson Gang and the Speaker? It could get interesting.
If the Opposition want a vote on something, they can use one of their Opposition Days to do it. Why would the government want to bring a vote on something with which they disagree?
Rob Ford @robfordmancs · 1h TurnItIn online marking system relies on it, and this crash comes right in the middle of the summer marking season, so a lot of lecturers will be v stressed right now!
Comments
Milton Keynes won't mind being "Red Bull Racing Constituency", and there will be some fun competitiveness with
South NorthamptonshireMercedes Racing Constituency not far down the road.It'll also make Boundary Reviews even more fun and prominent as the various CEOs argue why their constituency shouldn't lose a ward.
So any minor restrictions remaining would count as a "delay".
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1402219171371536387?s=20
But he was not asked to give a plea regard the murder charge.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yellen-says-higher-interest-rates-would-be-plus-for-u-s
That's the biggest split yet in terms of 2nd doses dominating 1sts. Wales is up to 86.6% of adult population vaccinated - evidence of demand limitation starting to come in ?
It's the equivalent of about 41,000 UK wide first doses.
Last tuesday was quieter for 1st doses though.
Now, how long for all the very confused DNS servers to sort themselves out?
I will be making further announcements over the course of today in relation to posts within the Assembly and Executive. Watch this space."
He’s getting life for kidnap and rape anyway, and raises questions about how someone so screwed up can serve as armed police.
My area - Ashfield - has just been announced as getting £62m. Sounds reasonably significant.
Ashfield Independents thanking Lee Anderson, which is ... radical.
"Councils had been asked to put bids together for £25million for both Kirkby and Sutton. Ashfield District Council upped the ante an ambitious bid for £62million. A bid that was ultimately successful.
Major projects focussed on skills and business development, new and improved leisure, sports and health facilities and town centre regeneration projects are some of the ways that Ashfield District Council plan to change Sutton-in-Ashfield and Kirkby-in-Ashfield for the better.
Councillor Matthew Relf, the Council’s Cabinet Member for Place, Planning and Regeneration and Ashfield Independent councillor for Sutton Junction and Harlow Wood said, “This is great news not just for Kirkby and Sutton but also for the whole of Ashfield and the wider area."
The Hampstead one just looks weird. It will be an interesting seat. i'm assuming Labour will win but some wealthy areas in that seat.
I'm on board with changes which cross local authority boundaries, it's a fact of life if you want roughly equal constituencies - and I think that is a reasonable aim - that you cannot avoid such sometimes. There are limits though.
But the 1st draft is always ripped up a bit I think, as they go hard on 'the numbers force our hand' and then see what reaction they get to make compromises elsewhere. Second draft is likely the key, with any third draft marginal stuff and name changes.
I'd say that for my gym, since it was started about 6 years ago.
We have lost perhaps 2 years of time, mainly because of Planning issues or trying to find suitable premises. Most spectacularly when the Planning Officer after working with us for months on a change of use, on the last morning pulled a not-mentioned 3 year time limit on the change of use out of his backside and got it signed off into a decision without even telling us. Which cannot be amended short of a several-month process.
Fortunately it is coming out of lockdown far stronger than it went in, and the young majority owner has turned into a delightfully hard-bitten swine when it comes to dealing with bureaucrats and awkward service providers.
The place has been internally virtually rebuilt, and membership is already increasing vigorously.
I do think people have to get a grip on over reacting to humour that uses stereotypes. I think it should be plain to all whether a joke that relies on a stereotype is innocent fun/satire or whether it is actually racist/homophobic/sexist/ageist/disability/etc trait that would offend and says a lot about the joke tellers true views. I think I can tell if a joke is harmless and one that is offensive, but maybe that is in my eyes only.
She and others like her are having their already difficult jobs made infinitely harder by speculation and appallingly confused communication from the government. A bit of thought and care about the real world consequences for businesses would not go amiss.
Who in parliament is giving people like this a voice? in my view, right now, it is nobody.
'Take some time to sort out' = bankruptcy and worse for countless thousands.
I don't know if Miss Cyclefree Jr hosts receptions, but I mentioned yesterday that the weddings situation has reached the status of utter fiasco.
Brides were promised a decision on 24 May. The government temporised. Now many have had to pay their nonrefundable deposits, which they will lose if the government blocks the liberalisation on guest numbers planned for 21 June.
Moreover, they will have to cancel the weddings with just a few days' notice.
It is scandalous.
Wealthy areas *therefore* Labour will win.
There'll be an announcement on 14 June and then we'll know and plans can become certainties - or lost. But in the meantime there is no answer and reacting to every front page is just going to make everybody crazy.
That all sums through to 2,645,441 which implies first dose uptake of 82.6% not 86.5% - a rather smaller advantage than is commonly believed over England.
https://twitter.com/utb_smith/status/1402154561536770049?s=20
They simply will not commit to anything, at any time, either on the upside or downside ratchet of these restrictions. They don't even rule out ratcheting up the restrictions in the autumn if they feel like it.
Essentially they want and have carte blanche to interfere with the lives of ordinary people when they want, and in the way that they want. Open ended. Ad infinitum.
Have a town council that deals with flower beds and dog poo bins. Have a regional council that manages services and planning. A national government that manages (a far greater list of) devolved issues. And then a federal UK government.
We need to get rid of this stupid patchwork of former metro councils and unitary authorities and county / district 2fers.
Sounds like a tasty seat for life for some aspiring young Tory?
"Rule nothing out" is not bullshit, its reality. Nothing is ever ruled out and you're in denial if you think it is. But each of these steps for lifting lockdown have so far happened on schedule and should be irreversible.
However, as I have said before, we have an lynch mob who believe that in digging up this stuff they will root out the causes of Trump and Brexit and restore societal progress and enlightenment. But actually they are reversing centuries of civilisation, as they are endorsing a system of punishment without law.
No 10 rejects Commons Speaker's call for a vote on abandoning the 0.7% of GDP aid target.
"No plans to bring forward a vote" says the PM's official spokesman.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1402228517866192900
Getting only a week’s notice must be annoying for hospitality businesses, but would they prefer two weeks’ notice to open up a week later? I don’t think most customers will care too much if there’s a few shortages in the first weeks, if it means they’re back in the pub with fiends. The bigger issue, as the good lady points out, is for events and function rooms where more planning is required.
"We are acting in accordance with the [Overseas Aid] Act as set out, it explicitly envisages these circumstances"
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1402228154303975437?s=20
We need to apply a bit of judgment and common-sense to what people do when young, not this hideous Puritan tut-tutting.
This isn't going forwards.
It is going backwards.
At a rate of knots.
Not only are we not getting out on 21 June. We are getting pushed back in
Besides, the same problem still exists. If the data was there for 1 June to say its safe (incidentally I think it was) then why wait until 21 June? Why not say on 1 June "this is safe, reopen from 8 June"? Why waste 8 - 21 June?
Same issue still exists. There will always be a conflict between letting people reopen ASAP and giving as much notice as possible. The two things run counter to each other.
Poor girl. At least her family will be spared the torment of a contested trial.
However, if the vaccinations work in the sense of avoiding hospitalisations - it will eventually meet a threshold of disinterest where people don't comply with any of the rules.
@robfordmancs
·
1h
TurnItIn online marking system relies on it, and this crash comes right in the middle of the summer marking season, so a lot of lecturers will be v stressed right now!