Is Biden going honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right? – politicalbett

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today


HYUFD Posts: 81,696
8:38AM edited 8:40AM

Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.

However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day

WhisperingOracle said:

Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.

Dura_Ace said:

Mexicanpete said:

My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).

My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Andy_JS said:

England ballsing things up in Galle. 89/4,

On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.

On average, they're not batting on a turning wicket in Sri Lanka.

LostPassword said:

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Andy_JS said:

England ballsing things up in Galle. 89/4,

On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.

On average, they're not batting on a turning wicket in Sri Lanka.

They're batting on the same wicket that the top order were batting on.

MarqueeMark said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

The wish is father to the thought....

Brom said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm, I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're on the beginning of a trend, to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

If anything I'd say there's been a slight Tory uptick in the past month.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).

That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.

Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians

I’d give it about 8/10.

Slower growth? Check.
Fall in pound? Check.
Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check.
Loss of rights? Check.
Damage to relations with key allies? Check.
Loss of U.K. influence? Check.
Fall in house prices? Not really.

You've managed to forget:

Immediate two year recession
Higher unemployment
Car factories shutting down
City relocating to Frankfurt
Lower stock prices
Cuts in pensions
Crops rotting in the fields
Refugee camps in Kent

The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).

The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.

I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.

No refugee camps but Kent does have huge lorry parks and a surge in al fresco defacation.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Dura_Ace said:

Mexicanpete said:

My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).

My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.

Another reason to abolish Grammar Schools!

Far from it, we should have more of them if parents want them

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.

There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.

May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal

RochdalePioneers said:

Wonderful stuff from @HYUFD this morning pledging "razor wire" along Hadrians Wall. A finer advocate for Scottish Independence you will not find. And he plays it so deliciously deadpan, like he doesn't understand that what he says and what he claims he believes (e.g. in the Union) are diametrically opposed.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.

I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today


HYUFD Posts: 81,696
8:38AM edited 8:40AM

Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.

However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day

It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.

OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland

It is not just the razor wire, it is your whole attitude to Scotland and the border that is unacceptable

Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire

You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.

My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.

That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.

Sandpit said:

Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/lotus-pistonheads/lotus-confirms-type-131-sports-car-for-2021/43660

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MattW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.

I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth

How did you get an Austin Westminster up to a very fast speed?

Was it downhill?

It was amazingly powerful

This was in 1961 and it exceeded 100mph

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).

That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.

Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians

I’d give it about 8/10.

Slower growth? Check.
Fall in pound? Check.
Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check.
Loss of rights? Check.
Damage to relations with key allies? Check.
Loss of U.K. influence? Check.
Fall in house prices? Not really.

You've managed to forget:

Immediate two year recession
Higher unemployment
Car factories shutting down
City relocating to Frankfurt
Lower stock prices
Cuts in pensions
Crops rotting in the fields
Refugee camps in Kent

The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).

The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.

I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.

No refugee camps but Kent does have huge lorry parks and a surge in al fresco defacation.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/1353657653893935104?s=20

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638163944787968?s=20
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638355196669952?s=20
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638632805064704?s=20

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638163944787968?s=20
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638355196669952?s=20
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638632805064704?s=20

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.

My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.

That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.

I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than interpretations of them, can probably summarise.

You sound like a COVID denier....you get shown a chart of the smoothed polling averages and you still deny it.

Eh ? I'm talking about polling since the start of the year and the Brexit changes, not Oct /Nov.

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.

There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.

May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal

So the plan should be, taking an example of of the EU book, that the U.K. negotiates with Scotland right at the top of the talks, that there cannot be a physical border across the island of Great Britian.

You sound like you’re looking forward with glee to erecting the border, a bit like the ultra-Remoaners hoping to see food shortages.

That could only be on the basis of the UK government saying to Sturgeon 'We are going to make you an offer you cannot refuse, stay in the UK single market or leave it to rejoin the EU and we will have to start erecting the border posts straight after.'

Leaving the EU being the only material change since 2014 there would thus be no case for Scotland to leave the UK or the UK single market and to rejoin the EU.

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.

Spain and Portugal will be shooting upwards in terms of death rates, very soon.

Leon said:

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.

This plague is still accelerating, globally. By the end of 2021, or the middle of 2022, that table could look completely different, and the UK could be 10th, 20th, whatever. Or we could be top.

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/lotus-pistonheads/lotus-confirms-type-131-sports-car-for-2021/43660

Lots Of Trouble Usually Serious

I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.

TOPPING said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/lotus-pistonheads/lotus-confirms-type-131-sports-car-for-2021/43660

Lots Of Trouble Usually Serious

I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.

LOL did you go to Belize at all?

Two airlines in the region at the time:

TACA - take a chance airways; and
SAHSA - stay at home, stay alive.

Planes had a habit of driving into the mountain range at the end of the runway at Tegucigalpa.

Alistair said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.

Which police would he send in?

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.

Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.

Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.

Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.

I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.

Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?

The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'

So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.

I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'

I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!

Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today


HYUFD Posts: 81,696
8:38AM edited 8:40AM

Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.

However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day

It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.

OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland

It is not just the razor wire, it is your whole attitude to Scotland and the border that is unacceptable

Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire

You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party

I am sorry BigG it is not a matter of 'most likely' it is inevitable now there would be a hard border with an independent Scotland if it voted for independence to rejoin the EU, EEA or EU Customs Union now that the UK has left the EU, EEA and EU Customs Union.
That border would have to be policed by customs officials at the very least.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).

That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.

Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians

I’d give it about 8/10.

Slower growth? Check.
Fall in pound? Check.
Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check.
Loss of rights? Check.
Damage to relations with key allies? Check.
Loss of U.K. influence? Check.
Fall in house prices? Not really.

I'd give it the following
Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc)
Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)

Slower growth? ❌
- Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"

Increased inflation? ❌
- Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.

Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌
- Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.

Loss of U.K. influence? ❌
- I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.

Damage to relations with key allies? ❌
- Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.

Fall in house prices? Not really.
- Which is a shame but nevermind.

A fall in the pound makes British people poorer and so cannot be considered, in itself, to be a good thing. It may be a necessary thing, given other factors (eg if you hinder your exporters and damage your productive capacity, you will need a weaker currency to restore your competitiveness). With a floating exchange rate the currency will find its level. If that level is significantly lower than before, that is telling you something, and it isn't good.

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).

That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.

Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians

I’d give it about 8/10.

Slower growth? Check.
Fall in pound? Check.
Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check.
Loss of rights? Check.
Damage to relations with key allies? Check.
Loss of U.K. influence? Check.
Fall in house prices? Not really.

You've managed to forget:

Immediate two year recession
Higher unemployment
Car factories shutting down
City relocating to Frankfurt
Lower stock prices
Cuts in pensions
Crops rotting in the fields
Refugee camps in Kent

The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).

The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.

I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.

Net job growth remained positive until the start of COVID, One could argue that it would have been *even better*, without Brexit, but I don't think that was the argument being made, prior the referendum.

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.

Still not great, however.

We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.

WhisperingOracle said:

MarqueeMark said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gardenwalker said:

It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.

Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.

The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.

Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.

Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'

Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.

The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.

AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.

"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"

There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151

Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.

Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.

The wish is father to the thought....

This could also be a motto for many centre-right posts on PB, ofcourse. I do think the fact that Labour leads are being duplicated by different pollsters is genuinely cause for thought, but obviously the proof of the pudding will be if these leads are sustained.

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.

Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.

I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.

Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alistair said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.

The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.

Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.

There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.

No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.

Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon

Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.

If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?

No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards

Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.

I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.

The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway

You can never concede a point can you?

Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.

And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing

why do you say that?

I agree, they vanished long ago.

Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?

Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.

Ah but @HYUFD only went to Warwick University so unfortunately he is not intelligent enough to be an MP by his own measure.

Shame, but we only want the best.

True, but he also spent a year at the greatest university in the world.

I didn't realise he went to Newcastle University for a year?

Aber 't he went to an even better one...

No such thing. Even super Lisa Nandy went to Newcastle!

Aber had Hyufd, Sandpit, me, Prince Charles and Nick Bourne. What more evidence of quality do you want?

Gardenwalker said:

There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.

While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.

This is not hindsight, either.
With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.

That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.

RobD said:

Gardenwalker said:

There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.

While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.

This is not hindsight, either.
With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.

That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.

It's easy for us on here to say what they should and shouldn't do. It's completely different when you are the one making the actual decision.