I’ve always been intrigued by Lampeter, since a old connection of mine from student days - scion of a NZ wine dynasty - went off to do a PhD in Philosophy there.
It seemed an odd choice, tbh.
A very odd choice.
The university passes itself off under the moniker University Wales Trinity St David nowadays and has become a huge sprawling campus incorporating Lampeter, Swansea & Carmarthen.
It has -- shall we say -- very good connections with the Welsh Government.
It has a very highly paid Vice Chancellor -- a tenth-rate academic who has published virtually nothing -- but has very well attuned good political antennae and can keep the Welsh Government money flowing.
Sadly typical of the moribund state of Welsh life under Labour.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
The greatest crisis of modern times, but not serious enough to seek a softer Brexit to avoid compounding the economic trauma. That is the definition of decadent, or even negligent, government.
It's very similar to Trumpism in its religiosity, as are the copious comments all over the Daily Mail in recent weeks that Remainers are to blame for any Brexit problems as a result of Brexit "not being a proper Brexit".
I'd like to propose that all header writers include a paragraph about HYUFD.
Then at least all of these tortuously boring posts about his posts would be on topic.
You don't know what tortuously means.
I have recently flipped from being concerned on HYUFD's behalf that his posting may wreck his prospects of a political career, to being certain it will and being glad about that.
He was warned.
I do know, but missed an r. Good spot! Torturously.
The posts about HYUFD's post are indeed not boring in a winding and complicated way.
The first several years of my legal career were a battle between me an spellcheck over the existence of the word "tortious" as opposed to its preferred "tortuous"
Same or v. similar etymology, at a guess?
Not sure. I think "Tort" and thus "Tortious" comes from the Old French for "wrong" or "injustice". No idea about tortuous.
Just checked and tort, tortious and tortuous all appear to stem from Latin torquere - to twist. Torsion and torque no doubt the same.
Having seen the shitshow of Brexit might an alternative plan Re a referendum and possible path to independence be to have a Scottish independence referendum that is effectively two parts. Part one is a referendum asking if they wish to enter negotiations to leave the UK which is not binding but will be followed at a later agreed date by a binding referendum once negotiations are complete.
Clearly the first referendum would be “yes” then would be a fixed period where the Scots and the rUK negotiate either a deal or no deal (as per brexit) followed by a vote based on the facts of what Scotland will have as a deal afterwards.
So the voters in second ref know what their currency situation will be, assets, liabilities, post exit financial position, relationship with EU based on constraints or otherwise of the deal/no deal.
If it’s a “bad deal” then maybe Scotland will still take it for independence but at least they know what they are voting for exactly and reduces the chances of project fear etc or false promises of sunlit uplands. It also has the benefit for those who are pro Union that the extra time this takes might result in a changed UK where brexit has settled down, BoJo no longer PM etc so pressure might have gone out of the situation.
Looking forward to seeing the "second referendum is treason" brigade on here arguing for a two stage referendum for Scottish independence. Personally I think there is a logic to a two stage process, I thought we should have confirmed the Brexit deal with a second vote, but I think the constitutional precedent has now been set that this is a one stage process.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
On a good day in a well-run school, teaching really is the most tremendous fun, as well as being deeply meaningful. Unfortunately, not all schools are well-run in that sense.
Clearly there is an issue with salaries, given the number of subjects and places where you can't get specialist teachers full stop. On the other hand, I've seen surveys of ex-teachers typically swallowing a 5k pay cut to get out. Sorting out the lost meaning and fun would help a lot.
Vince Cable sounding remarkably like a Conservative on Start The Week this morning. Whereas many LD's have moved somewhat left in the intervening years since 2015, Vince seems to have gone the opposite way, as now more happily and unashamedly 'out' in advocating for the centre-right, and as a classical liberal, with a few social finishing touches.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Have you read this paper (or at least the abstract)?
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
The greatest crisis of modern times, but not serious enough to seek a softer Brexit to avoid compounding the economic trauma. That is the definition of decadent, or even negligent, government.
Being honest you are being polite there. In many ways they've gone for the hardest possible Brexit on the basis that Covid hides all the real pain.
Note that most businesses have only had a single day of "real" business (January 4th) before everything was locked down again. And Scotland didn't even get that.
Mr. JS, to be fair, she might have a point about obesity. We're the worst country in Europe for that, and it's not great for people's health.
Not 100% true. The Maltese are even fatter than us (as are, surprisingly, the Australians, Kiwis, and Saffers). We're just the second fattest in Europe.
Mr. JS, to be fair, she might have a point about obesity. We're the worst country in Europe for that, and it's not great for people's health.
I agree with her. This is my post from last night:
"If you ranked every country in the world according to the following factors — (a) population density, (b) people with diabetes and other conditions related to being overweight/obesity, (c) percentage of elderly people, (d) travel/transit, ie. large numbers of people leaving, arriving, travelling on a regular basis — the UK would probably come near the top of the list, if not at the top of the list. Those are exactly the factors that make the spread and severity of Covid-19 more likely, and therefore they probably explain why we have one of the worst death rates. All of those factors were already present before Covid-19 existed so it may have been very difficult to counter them, even with the best possible response."
I've got rid of the word "connectivity" after reading Mysticrose's post.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
The greatest crisis of modern times, but not serious enough to seek a softer Brexit to avoid compounding the economic trauma. That is the definition of decadent, or even negligent, government.
It's very similar to Trumpism in its religiosity, as are the copious comments all over the Daily Mail in recent weeks that Remainers are to blame for any Brexit problems as a result of Brexit "not being a proper Brexit".
Brexit was/is a kind of death cult.
I say this even though there was - almost! - a respectable case to be made for Brexit (although it was hardly heard).
Brexit very quickly - even during the campaign - metastasised into a full-blown culture war against folk who “looked funny”.
The British people will pay for the rest of their lives.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Says a man who ostensibly earns a living making flint dildos.
I'm reminded of the maybe-Einstein pseudo-quote that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Maybe our apocalyptic colleague is just getting ahead of the game.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
Good morning Philip.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
Mr. JS, to be fair, she might have a point about obesity. We're the worst country in Europe for that, and it's not great for people's health.
Not 100% true. The Maltese are even fatter than us (as are, surprisingly, the Australians, Kiwis, and Saffers). We're just the second fattest in Europe.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Have you read this paper (or at least the abstract)?
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
Ah but @HYUFD only went to Warwick University so unfortunately he is not intelligent enough to be an MP by his own measure.
Shame, but we only want the best.
True, but he also spent a year at the greatest university in the world.
Cardigan Bay Poly?
Oh dear, people still confuse Aberystwyth and Lampeter.
I’ve always been intrigued by Lampeter, since a old connection of mine from student days - scion of a NZ wine dynasty - went off to do a PhD in Philosophy there.
It seemed an odd choice, tbh.
I recall there used to be (probably still is) a large shop on the edge of the Lampeter. A sign, on the side of the builidng, proclaimed "Cardiganshire's largest Superstore". In those days (early 8os) Cardiganshire was still dry and you had to walk across the bridge spanning the Teifi to get a drink in the Cwmann Tavern on a Sunday.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
Good morning Philip.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
TIA.
Seriously? This is not government policy. Please quote any PPC or MP saying this without being suspended from the party?
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
Such borders are only necessary as long as they are needed in the Irish Sea and at Dover.
The Anglo-Scottish border is only a nightmare if England chooses for it to be a nightmare elsewhere.
Whole point of discussing it first, would be to get agreement that there will not be a physical border between England and Scotland.
That’s not a problem for England, but is a potential problem for Scotland if they wish to join the EU.
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Says a man who ostensibly earns a living making flint dildos.
I'm reminded of the maybe-Einstein pseudo-quote that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Maybe our apocalyptic colleague is just getting ahead of the game.
As an internationalist socialist pacifist, I expect Einstein would now be advocating for exactly the kind of globally co-ordinated, Brownite international stimulus and health co-operation that would be driving the Trumpists and conspiratorial anti-semites to unprecedented levels of disturbed paranoia and derangement.
I’ve always been intrigued by Lampeter, since a old connection of mine from student days - scion of a NZ wine dynasty - went off to do a PhD in Philosophy there.
It seemed an odd choice, tbh.
A very odd choice.
The university passes itself off under the moniker University Wales Trinity St David nowadays and has become a huge sprawling campus incorporating Lampeter, Swansea & Carmarthen.
It has -- shall we say -- very good connections with the Welsh Government.
It has a very highly paid Vice Chancellor -- a tenth-rate academic who has published virtually nothing -- but has very well attuned good political antennae and can keep the Welsh Government money flowing.
Sadly typical of the moribund state of Welsh life under Labour.
He's actually trying to close Lampeter at the moment. He couldn't before because an impact assessment said there would be too much damage to the local economy. Since then student numbers have dropped 80% due to a deliberate policy of moving departments to Carmarthen and a second impact assessment will probably take a different view as a result.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
We are 25 days into a project designed for decades.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
Good morning Philip.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
Probably not deliberate, but that is an awesome pun.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
The percentage of teachers who become headteachers or ever senior teaching staff is miniscule. Presumably with the burgeoning number of multiple academy organisations run by minor captains of industry that opportunity is reduced further.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
We are 25 days into a project designed for decades.
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
Good morning Philip.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
TIA.
Seriously? This is not government policy. Please quote any PPC or MP saying this without being suspended from the party?
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
Such borders are only necessary as long as they are needed in the Irish Sea and at Dover.
The Anglo-Scottish border is only a nightmare if England chooses for it to be a nightmare elsewhere.
Whole point of discussing it first, would be to get agreement that there will not be a physical border between England and Scotland.
That’s not a problem for England, but is a potential problem for Scotland if they wish to join the EU.
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
Huh? A bit of hyperbole (razor wire). And he says "would be" - indicating a hypothetical course of action, speculating on UK govt's actions.
He doesn't say "I want", "I would", or give any endorsement of the mooted course of action.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Have you read this paper (or at least the abstract)?
It is a model. How has the model been calibrated? Against existing coronaviruses. So the result is that COVID will behave in the same way.
An unsurprising result, given the assumption.
The track record of modellers in the COVID pandemic has been ... err ... very modest.
Our main problem has been too much reliance on theoretical work, and not enough on empirical data-driven research.
Did you read the piece. They analysed data, per -
"We reanalyze a detailed dataset (my emphasis) that estimates age-specific seroprevalence based on both IgM (acute response) and IgG (long-term memory) against all four circulating HCoVs in children and adults (10) to estimate parameter ranges for transmission and waning of immunity"
I'd like to propose that all header writers include a paragraph about HYUFD.
Then at least all of these tortuously boring posts about his posts would be on topic.
You don't know what tortuously means.
I have recently flipped from being concerned on HYUFD's behalf that his posting may wreck his prospects of a political career, to being certain it will and being glad about that.
He was warned.
There is nothing I have posted the vast majority of the current Tory Party would not agree with (except perhaps for my pro Remain posts before the EU referendum) but then few PBers are ardent supporters of the current Tory government and PM Boris
I’ve always been intrigued by Lampeter, since a old connection of mine from student days - scion of a NZ wine dynasty - went off to do a PhD in Philosophy there.
It seemed an odd choice, tbh.
A very odd choice.
The university passes itself off under the moniker University Wales Trinity St David nowadays and has become a huge sprawling campus incorporating Lampeter, Swansea & Carmarthen.
It has -- shall we say -- very good connections with the Welsh Government.
It has a very highly paid Vice Chancellor -- a tenth-rate academic who has published virtually nothing -- but has very well attuned good political antennae and can keep the Welsh Government money flowing.
Sadly typical of the moribund state of Welsh life under Labour.
He's actually trying to close Lampeter at the moment. He couldn't before because an impact assessment said there would be too much damage to the local economy. Since then student numbers have dropped 80% due to a deliberate policy of moving departments to Carmarthen and a second impact assessment will probably take a different view as a result.
The government is about to close the borders. LOTS of universities will go bust, and probably shut. Just one of the tragic consequences of Covid that are only now sinking in.
Australia closed its borders early. That was a sound policy but it has crushed their tourism sector and cratered their universities - which used to be Australia's 2nd or 3rd biggest export
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
No refugee camps but Kent does have huge lorry parks and a surge in al fresco defacation.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
'Pre-planning' is intensely irritating. Although not quite as stupidly irksome as 'pre-prepared'.
What other kind of sodding prepared is there? The prefix is already in the damned word!
Etymology is not really on your side. "Paro" means "prepare," and there's a perfectly good word praeparo meaning, prepare in advance. The example given by Lewis and Short is Livy "praeparaverat ante naves," "he had pre-prepared the ships in advance." Nothing wrong with a bit of recursion.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Aha! He hath arrived!
I will bow out of explaining to these people what active participation in politics, together with contributions to a political chatroom, looks like.
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
We are 25 days into a project designed for decades.
Even at these low interest rates the NPV destruction however occurs right at the beginning.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
The percentage of teachers who become headteachers or ever senior teaching staff is miniscule. Presumably with the burgeoning number of multiple academy organisations run by minor captains of industry that opportunity is reduced further.
According to the Great God Google, in 2016...
"In the 3,400 secondary schools in 2016, there were 3,600 headteachers, 5,300 deputy headteachers, 13,600 assistant headteachers, 81,800 middle leaders and 103,800 classroom teachers"
The first thing I wonder is about "13,600 assistant headteachers" - is this a good post, or is it one of those all-the-work-but-not-the-money-while-you wait-for-promotion things?
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Check the graphs. Worldwide, deaths are not just rising, they are ACCELERATING. If we are lucky, and careful, the vaccines will snuff out the bug in the UK. But it will still be raging around the world for years, with the potential to mutate, and re-enter Britain.
Compared to this, every other issue is a tinker's wank.
I’ve always been intrigued by Lampeter, since a old connection of mine from student days - scion of a NZ wine dynasty - went off to do a PhD in Philosophy there.
It seemed an odd choice, tbh.
A very odd choice.
The university passes itself off under the moniker University Wales Trinity St David nowadays and has become a huge sprawling campus incorporating Lampeter, Swansea & Carmarthen.
It has -- shall we say -- very good connections with the Welsh Government.
It has a very highly paid Vice Chancellor -- a tenth-rate academic who has published virtually nothing -- but has very well attuned good political antennae and can keep the Welsh Government money flowing.
Sadly typical of the moribund state of Welsh life under Labour.
He's actually trying to close Lampeter at the moment. He couldn't before because an impact assessment said there would be too much damage to the local economy. Since then student numbers have dropped 80% due to a deliberate policy of moving departments to Carmarthen and a second impact assessment will probably take a different view as a result.
Isn't most of their real estate along Fabian Way (NPT) at vast, recent expense. Both Lampeter and Trinity College have been made superfluous to requirements.
It seemed an odd idea to have two Universities in Swansea (well one, plus one nearly in Swansea) when Cardiff couldn't afford to sustain two in the 1980s. University College Cardiff was on the brink during my time there.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Almost all of the uses of it have been about Palestine, a few JezzaC's in the 80s about nuclear waste sites, but only one I can find with it proposed for use domestically.
Barry Gardiner in 1999, talking about William Sprigge the legal counsel for Ofgas, said "For such a shameless display of fence-sitting, I simply express the wish that all Mr. Sprigge's fences be henceforth topped with razor wire."
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
Technically no, I just said Covid was not the apocalypse either
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
She actually had an interview on the Today programme to go to, Morgan starter his interview late
Not a good look whatever the excuse. I assume she had the 8:35 Today slot in which case she should have told GMB where to go when they started running late.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
Good morning Philip.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
TIA.
Seriously? This is not government policy. Please quote any PPC or MP saying this without being suspended from the party?
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
Such borders are only necessary as long as they are needed in the Irish Sea and at Dover.
The Anglo-Scottish border is only a nightmare if England chooses for it to be a nightmare elsewhere.
Whole point of discussing it first, would be to get agreement that there will not be a physical border between England and Scotland.
That’s not a problem for England, but is a potential problem for Scotland if they wish to join the EU.
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
Huh? A bit of hyperbole (razor wire). And he says "would be" - indicating a hypothetical course of action, speculating on UK govt's actions.
He doesn't say "I want", "I would", or give any endorsement of the mooted course of action.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
Where did you get 5th deadliest from?
Number 5 is about 5 million dead, according to WIkipedia which as we know is never wrong.
At the moment officially it's on about number 14, but that's definitely underestimating the current number of deaths and probably overestimating the death rate of a few above.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
The percentage of teachers who become headteachers or ever senior teaching staff is miniscule. Presumably with the burgeoning number of multiple academy organisations run by minor captains of industry that opportunity is reduced further.
According to the Great God Google, in 2016...
"In the 3,400 secondary schools in 2016, there were 3,600 headteachers, 5,300 deputy headteachers, 13,600 assistant headteachers, 81,800 middle leaders and 103,800 classroom teachers"
The first thing I wonder is about "13,600 assistant headteachers" - is this a good post, or is it one of those all-the-work-but-not-the-money-while-you wait-for-promotion things?
My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
Independence is about sovereignty. Brexit is about sovereignty.
The UK govt, for example, believes that Brexit and hence sovereignty is more important than the pandemic.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.
I'd like to propose that all header writers include a paragraph about HYUFD.
Then at least all of these tortuously boring posts about his posts would be on topic.
You don't know what tortuously means.
I have recently flipped from being concerned on HYUFD's behalf that his posting may wreck his prospects of a political career, to being certain it will and being glad about that.
He was warned.
I do know, but missed an r. Good spot! Torturously.
The posts about HYUFD's post are indeed not boring in a winding and complicated way.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
The percentage of teachers who become headteachers or ever senior teaching staff is miniscule. Presumably with the burgeoning number of multiple academy organisations run by minor captains of industry that opportunity is reduced further.
According to the Great God Google, in 2016...
"In the 3,400 secondary schools in 2016, there were 3,600 headteachers, 5,300 deputy headteachers, 13,600 assistant headteachers, 81,800 middle leaders and 103,800 classroom teachers"
The first thing I wonder is about "13,600 assistant headteachers" - is this a good post, or is it one of those all-the-work-but-not-the-money-while-you wait-for-promotion things?
It's a fancy title for all the jobs the actual senior leaders can't be bothered to do themselves.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today
HYUFD Posts: 81,696 8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
Where did you get 5th deadliest from?
Number 5 is about 5 million dead, according to WIkipedia which as we know is never wrong.
At the moment officially it's on about number 14, but that's definitely underestimating the current number of deaths and probably overestimating the death rate of a few above.
One of those claims that is both true and untrue simultaneously.
Its true in numerical absolute numbers.
Its false in real percentage of population numbers.
In the face of Covid, bickering about Scottish independence or speculating about statehood for DC feels like a pub brawl on the front line of the Somme.
Humanity - the entire species - all of us - is facing its greatest crisis since World War 2. This last week was the worst yet. Even if the crisis abates by summer, the economic, demographic, psychological consequences - nearly all of them awful - will be with us for a generation. So much damage is being done to so many people, places, businesses, countries.
And lurking just over the horizon is the reasonable worst-case scenario: the virus keeps mutating, rendering vaccines ineffective. In which case human society changes forever. Most travel ends. Borders close permanently. We have to spend 20% of GDP on healthcare - or let people die in the street.
This entire thread is decadent piffle.
Yes Covid is serious but you even over 80s who get it are more likely to survive it than not.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
Head
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
Technically no, I just said Covid was not the apocalypse either
It is the closest thing to an apocalypse that most PB-ers have ever seen. And it still has the potential to get much worse, ie yer actual 100% full-fat apocalypse
"Pensions minister Therese Coffey turns off her camera during brutal GMB row with Piers Morgan after she blames 'age and obesity of population for UK having world's worst Covid death rate'"
On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.
the pressure to vaccinate teachers soon and get schools open is building this morning by looks of things.
Apparently it will not stop the spread of the virus even when teachers are vaccinated
But it might stop them moaning....
Moaning is the product from X number of years of the verbal waterboarding they endure from our precious offspring.
Would you do it for 30 grand a year?
A lot of head teachers earn very high salaries for what is a demanding role, but nonetheless very secure when compared to private sector positions on those types of salary.
Therefore there is a financially rewarding career pathway for teachers should they choose it and are good enough. If a teacher decides to remain a teacher for all their career (average salary 37k, but can in some cases rise to upper 50s, that is very vocational and commendable, but it is a lifestyle choice. The idea that we should feel sorry for teachers' salaries doesn't wash with me, but it also doesn't stop me admiring what they do. And by the way, I think they should be a priority for vaccination.
The percentage of teachers who become headteachers or ever senior teaching staff is miniscule. Presumably with the burgeoning number of multiple academy organisations run by minor captains of industry that opportunity is reduced further.
According to the Great God Google, in 2016...
"In the 3,400 secondary schools in 2016, there were 3,600 headteachers, 5,300 deputy headteachers, 13,600 assistant headteachers, 81,800 middle leaders and 103,800 classroom teachers"
The first thing I wonder is about "13,600 assistant headteachers" - is this a good post, or is it one of those all-the-work-but-not-the-money-while-you wait-for-promotion things?
It's a fancy title for all the jobs the actual senior leaders can't be bothered to do themselves.
It's also a common job title when there has been budget problems and binned the deputy head to solve a short term finance issue or restructing on movement / retirement to create 2 assistant heads in place of 1 deputy.
Mind you I've often seen Head of School or similar rather than Headteacher as well when academies play musical management chairs.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
I'll give you the first two red crosses, but with regards to the remainder, you're having a laugh!
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
I'll give you the first two red crosses, but with regards to the remainder, you're having a laugh!
The first is also absurd, essentially, as Britain was functionally in the single market until just three weeks or so. That leaves inflation.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
I'll give you the first two red crosses, but with regards to the remainder, you're having a laugh!
Note the weasel words on economic growth “in the last ten years”. U.K. has been under-trend since 2016.
My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).
My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.
On average, they're not batting on a turning wicket in Sri Lanka.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
I'll give you the first two red crosses, but with regards to the remainder, you're having a laugh!
Note the weasel words on economic growth “in the last ten years”. U.K. has been under-trend since 2016.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
There's quite a few speed cameras on the Scottish side of the border now!
Lovely bit of road and lovely bit of the country all round though. Perfect for driving.
Comments
The university passes itself off under the moniker University Wales Trinity St David nowadays and has become a huge sprawling campus incorporating Lampeter, Swansea & Carmarthen.
It has -- shall we say -- very good connections with the Welsh Government.
It has a very highly paid Vice Chancellor -- a tenth-rate academic who has published virtually nothing -- but has very well attuned good political antennae and can keep the Welsh Government money flowing.
Sadly typical of the moribund state of Welsh life under Labour.
Slower growth? Check.
Fall in pound? Check.
Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check.
Loss of rights? Check.
Damage to relations with key allies? Check.
Loss of U.K. influence? Check.
Fall in house prices? Not really.
Presumably, it was named as it was to lure those dim souls wondering where UKIP had gone.....
Oh, and torture too!
Clearly there is an issue with salaries, given the number of subjects and places where you can't get specialist teachers full stop. On the other hand, I've seen surveys of ex-teachers typically swallowing a 5k pay cut to get out. Sorting out the lost meaning and fun would help a lot.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522
Note that most businesses have only had a single day of "real" business (January 4th) before everything was locked down again. And Scotland didn't even get that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
"If you ranked every country in the world according to the following factors — (a) population density, (b) people with diabetes and other conditions related to being overweight/obesity, (c) percentage of elderly people, (d) travel/transit, ie. large numbers of people leaving, arriving, travelling on a regular basis — the UK would probably come near the top of the list, if not at the top of the list. Those are exactly the factors that make the spread and severity of Covid-19 more likely, and therefore they probably explain why we have one of the worst death rates. All of those factors were already present before Covid-19 existed so it may have been very difficult to counter them, even with the best possible response."
I've got rid of the word "connectivity" after reading Mysticrose's post.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
I say this even though there was - almost! - a respectable case to be made for Brexit (although it was hardly heard).
Brexit very quickly - even during the campaign - metastasised into a full-blown culture war against folk who “looked funny”.
The British people will pay for the rest of their lives.
Mr. JS, an astute comment.
1st Test - @HomeOfCricket – 2-6 June
2nd Test - @Edgbaston – 10-14 June
Just flashed up on the BBC commentary.
Immediate two year recession
Higher unemployment
Car factories shutting down
City relocating to Frankfurt
Lower stock prices
Cuts in pensions
Crops rotting in the fields
Refugee camps in Kent
Maybe our apocalyptic colleague is just getting ahead of the game.
Sad to say you have a track record for misunderestimating things. Do me a huge favour and repost the bit where he did that.
TIA.
Also, we are the world’s largest dairy exporter and I swear they inject milk into the foodstuffs there.
Also, a notable subset of the pop (Polynesians) are very very very fat.
An unsurprising result, given the assumption.
The track record of modellers in the COVID pandemic has been ... err ... very modest.
Our main problem has been too much reliance on theoretical work, and not enough on empirical data-driven research.
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
A lot now riding on Dan Lawrence. This should show his mettle.
Not really Lincoln Project which was own party members turning on Trump.
Also we have had Led by Donkeys doing this since Brexit vote.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48747118
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Therese Coffey is, bizarrely, one of the better performing ministers in the “Ministry of All the Talentless”.
He doesn't say "I want", "I would", or give any endorsement of the mooted course of action.
If we got a virus with a much more deadly death rate then yes your apocalyptic scenario might come to pass but Covid is not it.
At the moment even allowing for some mutations the vaccine looks effective
"We reanalyze a detailed dataset (my emphasis) that estimates age-specific seroprevalence based on both IgM (acute response) and IgG (long-term memory) against all four circulating HCoVs in children and adults (10) to estimate parameter ranges for transmission and waning of immunity"
Australia closed its borders early. That was a sound policy but it has crushed their tourism sector and cratered their universities - which used to be Australia's 2nd or 3rd biggest export
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/23/australian-universities-warn-of-economic-ripple-effect-if-international-students-remain-locked-out
Desk
Thump
Did you really just say Scottish independence is a more serious issue than a pandemic that even on official figures is rapidly approaching being the fifth deadliest of all time?
I will bow out of explaining to these people what active participation in politics, together with contributions to a political chatroom, looks like.
"In the 3,400 secondary schools in 2016, there were 3,600 headteachers, 5,300 deputy headteachers, 13,600 assistant headteachers, 81,800 middle leaders and 103,800 classroom teachers"
The first thing I wonder is about "13,600 assistant headteachers" - is this a good post, or is it one of those all-the-work-but-not-the-money-while-you wait-for-promotion things?
Compared to this, every other issue is a tinker's wank.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It seemed an odd idea to have two Universities in Swansea (well one, plus one nearly in Swansea) when Cardiff couldn't afford to sustain two in the 1980s. University College Cardiff was on the brink during my time there.
Almost all of the uses of it have been about Palestine, a few JezzaC's in the 80s about nuclear waste sites, but only one I can find with it proposed for use domestically.
Barry Gardiner in 1999, talking about William Sprigge the legal counsel for Ofgas, said "For such a shameless display of fence-sitting, I simply express the wish that all Mr. Sprigge's fences be henceforth topped with razor wire."
Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing)
Increased indy sentiment? Check.
Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc)
Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌
- Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌
- Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌
- Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌
- I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌
- Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really.
- Which is a shame but nevermind.
He's constantly endorsing that.
At the moment officially it's on about number 14, but that's definitely underestimating the current number of deaths and probably overestimating the death rate of a few above.
The UK govt, for example, believes that Brexit and hence sovereignty is more important than the pandemic.
At least it isn't tortiously.
HYUFD Posts: 81,696
8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
Its true in numerical absolute numbers.
Its false in real percentage of population numbers.
It’s the only way to deal with these hypocrite media muppets. Same with Burley and Rigby, if and when they return
Mind you I've often seen Head of School or similar rather than Headteacher as well when academies play musical management chairs.
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10151
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Lovely bit of road and lovely bit of the country all round though. Perfect for driving.