Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today
HYUFD Posts: 81,696 8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.
OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
I'll give you the first two red crosses, but with regards to the remainder, you're having a laugh!
The first is also absurd, essentially, as Britain was functionally in the single market until just three weeks or so. That leaves inflation.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is self-isolating for the third time, after coming into contact with someone who tested positive for coronavirus. He said he would be working from home until next Monday after being notified of the contact earlier.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
You seem to think that being a hyperpartisan loyalist makes you better. It does not.
I voted for Blair when I was 18. When she was 18, Cabinet Secretary and potential future leader of the party and Prime Minister Liz Truss was actively campaigning for the Liberal Democrats
If it's good enough to make the Cabinet, it's good enough for me.
Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hmm, I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, with lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates combining with the prevalence of Brexit stories in the media where people thought they had 'gone away'. Should all be clearer by next month, I think.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
There's quite a few speed cameras on the Scottish side of the border now!
Lovely bit of road and lovely bit of the country all round though. Perfect for driving.
I would certainly have tested its maximum recording and yes, the area is perfect for driving and is much under rated
My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).
My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm, I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're on the beginning of a trend, to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
If anything I'd say there's been a slight Tory uptick in the past month.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.
There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.
May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).
My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.
Another reason to abolish Grammar Schools!
Far from it, we should have more of them if parents want them
On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.
On average, they're not batting on a turning wicket in Sri Lanka.
They're batting on the same wicket that the top order were batting on.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today
HYUFD Posts: 81,696 8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.
OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland
It is not just the razor wire, it is your whole attitude to Scotland and the border that is unacceptable
Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire
You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party
On average a team doubles the score they were on at the fall of the 4th wicket. So the central estimate would have England scoring 178 all out, just ahead of the 164 required.
On average, they're not batting on a turning wicket in Sri Lanka.
They're batting on the same wicket that the top order were batting on.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
That’s not going to happen.
The likeliest scenario is that the authority for the referendum will be voted down in Parliament, then the SNP will either back off or hold their own vote which will be boycotted by half the country.
There may be some court cases in Scottish courts if the government there try and spend public money on reserved matters, but the U.K. gov is definitely not going to emulate the Spanish gov from 2017.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
The wish is father to the thought....
This could also be a motto for many centre-right posts on PB, ofcourse. I do think the fact that Labour leads are being duplicated by different pollsters is genuinely cause for thought, but obviously the proof of the pudding will be if these leads are sustained.
Wonderful stuff from @HYUFD this morning pledging "razor wire" along Hadrians Wall. A finer advocate for Scottish Independence you will not find. And he plays it so deliciously deadpan, like he doesn't understand that what he says and what he claims he believes (e.g. in the Union) are diametrically opposed.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm, I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're on the beginning of a trend, to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
If anything I'd say there's been a slight Tory uptick in the past month.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year , specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in the November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
No refugee camps but Kent does have huge lorry parks and a surge in al fresco defacation.
Refugee camps in Kent never made sense. Once over the Channel, no need to linger at the ports.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
My late father was the Deputy Head of a Comprehensive School. He worked like a dog. The Headmaster was more like the figurehead, pressing flesh and schmoozing with the great and the good of Hereford and Worcester County (as was).
My late mother was a music teacher and later Head of Music at a grammar school. When I was at university and living at home she used to pay me to do her marking. I had NFI what I was doing.
Another reason to abolish Grammar Schools!
Far from it, we should have more of them if parents want them
We should have more A grades if parents want them.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
Net job growth remained positive until the start of COVID, One could argue that it would have been *even better*, without Brexit, but I don't think that was the argument being made, prior the referendum.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.
There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.
May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal
So the plan should be, taking an example of of the EU book, that the U.K. negotiates with Scotland right at the top of the talks, that there cannot be a physical border across the island of Great Britian.
You sound like you’re looking forward with glee to erecting the border, a bit like the ultra-Remoaners hoping to see food shortages.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
Wonderful stuff from @HYUFD this morning pledging "razor wire" along Hadrians Wall. A finer advocate for Scottish Independence you will not find. And he plays it so deliciously deadpan, like he doesn't understand that what he says and what he claims he believes (e.g. in the Union) are diametrically opposed.
Wonderful stuff from @HYUFD this morning pledging "razor wire" along Hadrians Wall. A finer advocate for Scottish Independence you will not find. And he plays it so deliciously deadpan, like he doesn't understand that what he says and what he claims he believes (e.g. in the Union) are diametrically opposed.
There would be customs posts and a hard border with Scotland if it rejoined the EU, the EEA or an EU Customs Union now having voted to leave the UK.
That is inevitable and that would not have been the case in 2014 when the UK was still in the EU
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
How did you get an Austin Westminster up to a very fast speed?
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
That’s not going to happen.
The likeliest scenario is that the authority for the referendum will be voted down in Parliament, then the SNP will either back off or hold their own vote which will be boycotted by half the country.
There may be some court cases in Scottish courts if the government there try and spend public money on reserved matters, but the U.K. gov is definitely not going to emulate the Spanish gov from 2017.
The second paragraph is the important one. A non-legal referendum would likely be ignored by several local authorities in pro-Union parts of Scotland.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
Fixed for you...the man is a massive bell end of a hypocrite, why those that go on his programme don't just take him to task on being "COVID Lockdown General", while quite to state support when his own family break the rules and he is more than happy to ignore the guidelines himself.
The anti-lockdown riots in Holland were pretty brutal
"The Netherlands police union, NPB, has warned there could be more anti-lockdown riots after hundreds were arrested over the weekend in several cities.
“We haven’t seen so much violence in 40 years,” union board member Koen Simmers said on television program Nieuwsuu"
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today
HYUFD Posts: 81,696 8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.
OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland
It is not just the razor wire, it is your whole attitude to Scotland and the border that is unacceptable
Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire
You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party
I am sorry BigG it is not a matter of 'most likely' it is inevitable now there would be a hard border with an independent Scotland if it voted for independence to rejoin the EU, EEA or EU Customs Union now that the UK has left the EU, EEA and EU Customs Union. That border would have to be policed by customs officials at the very least.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than his interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
How did you get an Austin Westminster up to a very fast speed?
Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.
I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
How did you get an Austin Westminster up to a very fast speed?
Was it downhill?
It was amazingly powerful
This was in 1961 and it exceeded 100mph
That's interesting, and more than the specs claim.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
You sound like a COVID denier....you get shown a chart of the smoothed polling averages and you still deny it.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
No refugee camps but Kent does have huge lorry parks and a surge in al fresco defacation.
There is no surge in "al fresco defacation" here in Kent. We have been quite relieved (no pun intended) TBH. That is because the expecation we were given was of complee gridlock but what we have ended up with is not anywhere near that. That may change but the increase in people releiving themselves on the M20 has not happened (yet). There is a new lorry park but mostly Manston Airport has been repurposed.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.
There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.
May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal
So the plan should be, taking an example of of the EU book, that the U.K. negotiates with Scotland right at the top of the talks, that there cannot be a physical border across the island of Great Britian.
You sound like you’re looking forward with glee to erecting the border, a bit like the ultra-Remoaners hoping to see food shortages.
That could only be on the basis of the UK government saying to Sturgeon 'We are going to make you an offer you cannot refuse, stay in the UK single market or leave it to rejoin the EU and we will have to start erecting the border posts straight after.'
Leaving the EU being the only material change since 2014 there would thus be no case for Scotland to leave the UK or the UK single market and to rejoin the EU.
The anti-lockdown riots in Holland were pretty brutal
"The Netherlands police union, NPB, has warned there could be more anti-lockdown riots after hundreds were arrested over the weekend in several cities.
“We haven’t seen so much violence in 40 years,” union board member Koen Simmers said on television program Nieuwsuu"
You would think the people would be rioting over how crap their government vaccination roll-out was....not against the government taking a sensible step to try and minimize its spread.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
You sound like a COVID denier....you get shown a chart of the smoothed polling averages and you still deny it.
Eh ? I'm talking about polling since the start of the year and the Brexit changes, not Oct / Nov.
Massive disparity between the genders, there. So much worse for men. Yet you still see whining Guardian articles bleating on about "Covid particularly impacting women"
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than his interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
Overall the key trend is the main parties are neck and neck, maybe the Tories with a slight edge but a Labour government still possible with SNP support
Great vaccine news, with U.K. now over 10% of population, well ahead of the whole world bar two small and rich countries.
Israel over 40% now, and UAE over 25%, should start to see some useful data on effectiveness in the next few weeks.
The problem they've had in Israel is that people start to think they're immune and needn't worry about any precautions immediately after they walk out of the first dose.
Hopefully the UK will get the balance right: restrictions plus vaccinations now, mean greater freedom for everyone in just a month or two.
I think we're going to be waiting a bit longer than a month or two. Judging by all the grumbling over schools - which we'd expect to be at the front of the queue to reopen - that's going on at the moment, the Government would appear to be tending towards extreme caution right now.
I'm not taking about "total freedom", I'm talking about that moment when you know that you're on the far side of the hump.
It's like when you're running a half marathon, and pass the 15k mark and realize that - yes you're knackered - but there's only 6k to go. It's that point when you know you're getting through this.
In the case of coronavirus, it's the point where you realise that restrictions are on a downward slope.
It's the light at the end of the tunnel.
And we're not there yet. But we now have hope that we'll see that light in a month or two. Cases are falling. More that a tenth of the population have had at least one dose. We're not there yet. But that moment of relief, while it's not in sight... Well, at least it's conceivable now.
How I'm viewing this is we're under the cosh yet on a path to victory. The 'running a half marathon' metaphor is strong but for me a better one is a boxing match since this has the element of combat - with associated strategy and tactics - which is central to our struggle to beat Covid. The virus is landing a stream of cruel blows. We're taking some punishment. It looks worse than ever to the untrained eye. But all is not as it seems. Although we are getting pummeled we are at the same time gaining strength and being clever, deploying our unflashy weapons, stealthily advancing our counterattack towards the point where the balance of power flips and we punch our adversary to its ultimate and inevitable defeat. It's like Ali Foreman, Zaire, where we are Ali and this is the middle of the 5th round. It's not particularly like this, though, because there Ali (us) came out in the 8th (the Spring) and poleaxed George (the virus) in a sudden switch of momentum. That will not be happening with the pandemic. There will not be a knockout in the Spring. There will be a dawning of recognition that we are getting on top but it will probably take the full 15 rounds (Summer 22) to finish it. So, perhaps we forget the boxing and settle instead for the notion of running a half marathon - the image painted in the excellent post I'm replying to.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
You sound like a COVID denier....you get shown a chart of the smoothed polling averages and you still deny it.
Eh ? I'm talking about polling since the start of the year and the Brexit changes, not Oct /Nov.
And the trend is in that chart you were shown...essentially neck and neck, with small trend towards Tories (but I don't think it is statistically significant)...as has been the case for 3-4 months.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
This plague is still accelerating, globally. By the end of 2021, or the middle of 2022, that table could look completely different, and the UK could be 10th, 20th, whatever. Or we could be top.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
Spain and Portugal will be shooting upwards in terms of death rates, very soon.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
The context of my comment was that a hard customs border might be imposed by Scotland joining the EU, and therefore we should negotiate at tthe start of the separation process for there to be no hard border - much as the EU did with the UK with regard to the border in Ireland.
There could only be no hard border with Scotland if Scotland stayed in the UK single market and did not rejoin the EU or EEA or EU Customs Union.
May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal
So the plan should be, taking an example of of the EU book, that the U.K. negotiates with Scotland right at the top of the talks, that there cannot be a physical border across the island of Great Britian.
You sound like you’re looking forward with glee to erecting the border, a bit like the ultra-Remoaners hoping to see food shortages.
That could only be on the basis of the UK government saying to Sturgeon 'We are going to make you an offer you cannot refuse, stay in the UK single market or leave it to rejoin the EU and we will have to start erecting the border posts straight after.'
Leaving the EU being the only material change since 2014 there would thus be no case for Scotland to leave the UK or the UK single market and to rejoin the EU.
That’s not how you do it though, the political optics are really important here.
The U.K. and Scotland have two things to negotiate as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. 1. Money. 2. Border.
Once these two things are been agreed, then we can talk about the trade agreement.
Now Scotland might see that agreeing to no border makes EU membership more difficult, but that’s a future issue between Scotland and the EU, nothing to do with the UK.
You see how that *looks and sounds* better than saying to Scots that the UK will be sending the troops and the razor wire to Berwick? The end result might be the same, but the political messaging is very different.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
Spain and Portugal will be shooting upwards in terms of death rates, very soon.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
This plague is still accelerating, globally. By the end of 2021, or the middle of 2022, that table could look completely different, and the UK could be 10th, 20th, whatever. Or we could be top.
"This plague is still accellerating globally". Well, I know that Worldometers is far from perfect, but...
Re UK been a load of fatties and not helping versus COVID, this is undeniably true. The problem is in lots of Western countries it is now all this crap about being "fat but fit" / body positivity movement. If you are a massive fatty, you more likely to have things like diabetes, heart disease and a whole load of other underlying conditions. And it is just fact, if you are a fatty and / or have one of these conditions, your chances versus COVID are worse.
That doesn't let the government off the hook over their handling, if you have high number of cases, you are going to have high number of deaths, but it is certainly a factor as to death rates.
The problem is has become verboten to really tackle this "body positivity" movement.
Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.
I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.
LOL did you go to Belize at all?
Two airlines in the region at the time:
TACA - take a chance airways; and SAHSA - stay at home, stay alive.
Planes had a habit of driving into the mountain range at the end of the runway at Tegucigalpa.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
Those them facts I showed you...your statement is just plain wrong. Now if you want to say in the future will handling of COVID or Brexit hit the Tories, probably, but you initial claims about Tory support dropping in the past few months isn't true. Both parties have been at basically the same level for months, as the Tories lost a lot of support after initial COVID honeymoon.
My observation really stems from more than one pollster concurrently quoting Labour leads since the new year specifically ; if you can show me a similar conjunction in November or December polls I'll quite happily say we need longer to see.
That hole your digging is getting deeper. Just admit it, as others have posted the smoothed average of polling shows parties tied from Oct / Nov time, and if anything recent average of polling has shown the opposite, a small uptick in Tory lead.
I don't think that's right, but again I think HYUFD, who has been known to be more objective in his comprehensive posting of polls and electoral data than interpretations of them, can probably summarise.
You sound like a COVID denier....you get shown a chart of the smoothed polling averages and you still deny it.
Eh ? I'm talking about polling since the start of the year and the Brexit changes, not Oct /Nov.
And the trend is in that chart you were shown...essentially neck and neck, with small trend towards Tories (but I don't think it is statistically significant)...as has been the case for 3-4 months.
There's two separate points, looking at the chart. There seem to have already been two Labour leads recorded in November 2020, so that makes half your point. However, for some reason, the ukpolling site doesn't seem to have been updated since November, and the most recent clutch polls aren't visible.
There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either. With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
This plague is still accelerating, globally. By the end of 2021, or the middle of 2022, that table could look completely different, and the UK could be 10th, 20th, whatever. Or we could be top.
"This plague is still accellerating globally". Well, I know that Worldometers is far from perfect, but...
How complete are the last few days? I would bet not very.
There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either. With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
It's easy for us on here to say what they should and shouldn't do. It's completely different when you are the one making the actual decision.
Some good news on a Monday morning. Lotus Cars announce £100m investment into Hethel facility, with 250 extra jobs working on new sports car to replace existing Elise, Exige and Evora models.
I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.
LOL did you go to Belize at all?
Two airlines in the region at the time:
TACA - take a chance airways; and SAHSA - stay at home, stay alive.
Planes had a habit of driving into the mountain range at the end of the runway at Tegucigalpa.
The same for Pakistan International Airlines was Please Inform Allah....
There was a Russian pilot that used to fly out of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, with a parrot on his shoulder. Sadly, he slammed into the volcano there....
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
A fall in the pound makes British people poorer and so cannot be considered, in itself, to be a good thing. It may be a necessary thing, given other factors (eg if you hinder your exporters and damage your productive capacity, you will need a weaker currency to restore your competitiveness). With a floating exchange rate the currency will find its level. If that level is significantly lower than before, that is telling you something, and it isn't good.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.
I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
This plague is still accelerating, globally. By the end of 2021, or the middle of 2022, that table could look completely different, and the UK could be 10th, 20th, whatever. Or we could be top.
"This plague is still accellerating globally". Well, I know that Worldometers is far from perfect, but...
I was looking at the death chart. The case rate is much less reliable as an indicator, as testing varies so much from country to country. Deaths are still surging, as you can see. We also know that new, nastier, more infectious and more dangerous mutations have recently emerged, which is a bad augury.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
Which police would he send in?
If his only recourse was to UK-wide, centrally commanded military forces, that really would be the end of the union.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.
I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
The Netherlands has a slightly higher population density than the UK (though not England), but its population is significantly healthier than ours, with much lower obesity rates. Germany and Italy have more elderly populations than the UK, but lower population densities. Heathrow is the busiest international airport in the world. All important factors.
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
It's exactly what a government wants in an MP.
Everything @HYUFD writes on here is, in the back or front of his mind, writen so that it can be used at his PPC selection committee. It reflects govt policy and points out some of the issues with any contra-policy.
Does he fulfil other PPC selection criteria? No idea. But (if) his aim is to become an MP he is not hindering it by his posts on PB.
Are they as wry, arch and knowing as the rest of our posts? No, but that's not his aim.
I've never seen a PPC calling for razor wire at Hadrian's wall and if one did I'd expect he'd be suspended from the party PDQ.
Can you cite a real MP or PPC doing so?
The original post I was replying to was from Sandpit who said 'If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?'
So it was Sandpit who raised barbed wire not me.
I nonetheless agreed with his general point stating that 'No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards.'
I am also not going to take any lectures from you and BigG about my position in the party when I have never once voted Labour in a general election but always for a Tory government when you both voted for Blair and New Labour!!
Here are your shameful comments from 8.38am today
HYUFD Posts: 81,696 8:38AM edited 8:40AM
Indeed, England could correctly say that if Scotland wishes to stay part of the UK single market and stay out of the EU and EEA and EU Customs Union a hard border could be avoided.
However if Scotland voted for independence to rejoin the EU, the EEA or Customs Union, the border guards and razor wire would be sent to Berwick the next day
It is a simple fact that if Scotland voted for independence and then rejoined the EU, the EEA or Customs Union there would be customs posts and border guards at the English Scottish border due to the hard border there now is between the UK and the EU even with the basic trade deal we now have with them.
OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland
It is not just the razor wire, it is your whole attitude to Scotland and the border that is unacceptable
Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire
You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party
I am sorry BigG it is not a matter of 'most likely' it is inevitable now there would be a hard border with an independent Scotland if it voted for independence to rejoin the EU, EEA or EU Customs Union now that the UK has left the EU, EEA and EU Customs Union. That border would have to be policed by customs officials at the very least.
Nobody is arguing about the possibility of a border but your reference to the army, tanks and now razor wire are a disgrace to you and the party
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
I'd give it the following Fall in pound? Check. (But I'd argue in the circumstances this is a good thing) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. (Negligible, just paperwork not tariffs etc) Loss of rights? Check. (Those that were acknowkledged during the referendum)
Slower growth? ❌ - Objectively the UK had faster, not slower, growth than the Eurozone in the past decade "despite Brexit"
Increased inflation? ❌ - Objectively the UK has below-target inflation.
Succour to populists and alt-rightest? ❌ - Objectively opinion polls are showing reduced tolerance of alt-rightists and populists and greater acceptance of immigrants and immigration.
Loss of U.K. influence? ❌ - I can't see any objective way to measure this but UK has been capable of reaching agreements with those they want to do so, on a similar basis as we could before.
Damage to relations with key allies? ❌ - Allies have accepted Brexit and moved on. They view it as Britain being Britain and not objectively damaged.
Fall in house prices? Not really. - Which is a shame but nevermind.
A fall in the pound makes British people poorer and so cannot be considered, in itself, to be a good thing. It may be a necessary thing, given other factors (eg if you hinder your exporters and damage your productive capacity, you will need a weaker currency to restore your competitiveness). With a floating exchange rate the currency will find its level. If that level is significantly lower than before, that is telling you something, and it isn't good.
A lower currency is good news for domestic industry and exporters.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
It is like all the twats at the airports moaning...its not fair, not fair....I am coming back from Barbados and it is taking 2hrs to get through passport control....sorry Barbados, what exactly were you doing there....erhhhhh errhhhh business, yes thats it, business.
One thing I do respect about HYUFD is that he voted Remain and has never recanted from conceding that Brexit is economically damaging (albeit necessary, having voted for it).
That’s actually a lot more honest than many posters who scoffed unto the end that any economic harm was just “Project Fear”.
Virtually everything that was warned about Brexit that was dismissed as "project fear" has largely come to pass. The only real Project Fear was that used by Leave fascists who wanted the gullible to believe that they were about to be overrun by Romanians
I’d give it about 8/10.
Slower growth? Check. Fall in pound? Check. Increased inflation? Only a little only (so far) Increased indy sentiment? Check. Succour to populists and alt-rightest? Check. Trade restrictions? Check. Loss of rights? Check. Damage to relations with key allies? Check. Loss of U.K. influence? Check. Fall in house prices? Not really.
You've managed to forget:
Immediate two year recession Higher unemployment Car factories shutting down City relocating to Frankfurt Lower stock prices Cuts in pensions Crops rotting in the fields Refugee camps in Kent
The immediate recession was predicated on the instantaneous exercise of Article 50. In the end, only Corbyn was calling for that. Higher unemployment by default is what we *have* had and will continue to have, as a result of impaired economic growth. Ditto stock prices (and thereby, pensions).
The car factories *have* been shutting down, and part of the City *has* relocated to Frankfurt.
I’ll give you the crops rotting in the fields, that dog never barked. I honestly don’t remember the refugee camps in Kent.
Net job growth remained positive until the start of COVID, One could argue that it would have been *even better*, without Brexit, but I don't think that was the argument being made, prior the referendum.
The argument was job losses. Jobs have been lost because of Brexit, and net job growth has surely been slower (because economic growth and internal investment has slowed).
Appreciate there are nuances here, but the argument (and I am really thinking about the OBR rather than, say, AC Grayling) is intact.
Piers Morgan is also wrong to say we have the highest death rate in the world. Of non micro-countries, Belgium, Slovenia and Czechia are all higher, in terms of deaths per M.
Still not great, however.
We will be in front of Czechia by the end of today. Belgium and Slovenia are some way off but we're closer to our current peak than they are so might be able to overtake them.
I must say I find the eagerness of some people to discuss how the UK might fall a few places further down the deaths league than country X (especially EU country X) rather distasteful. The fact is that tens of thousands of people in the UK have died unnecessarily, and the reason they have died is the incompetence of our government.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
That’s not going to happen.
The likeliest scenario is that the authority for the referendum will be voted down in Parliament, then the SNP will either back off or hold their own vote which will be boycotted by half the country.
There may be some court cases in Scottish courts if the government there try and spend public money on reserved matters, but the U.K. gov is definitely not going to emulate the Spanish gov from 2017.
The second paragraph is the important one. A non-legal referendum would likely be ignored by several local authorities in pro-Union parts of Scotland.
It’s been said before, but nobody at all is talking about the Brexit upside, Brexit dividend, etc.
Last known references were before Christmas when govt advertising was telling small businesses to prepare for “Brexit opportunities”. Presume that campaign has been chopped.
The only debate is on how bad the damage is, potential mitigation, and why Remainers are to blame.
Covid is still masking everything and keeping it off the the leads of many news items, but I have a strong feeling that part of the recent dropping of Tory support in many polls is first-hand small business experience, then passed on to friends and associates who are undecided voters, in a subcultural strand still unnoticed by the media.
Citation required for 'dropping of Tory support'
Labour have been ahead in several of the recent polls of about the last two weeks - I expect HYUFD can verify as he's posted up several of the polls that are specifically relevant to this, I think.
The two parties are essentially tied, as they have been for months.
AFAIK there were no Labour leads in polls late last year, whereas now there are.
"Labour moves ahead in opinion polls - 8 Nov 2020"
There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –
Basically exactly what we have seen over the past month. Tories and Labour bounce around the high 30%, upto 40%, mark.
Hm I wouldn't be sure about that at all. It looks like we're at the beginning of a trend to me, combining lockdown fatigue and the depressing persistence of casualty rates from the virus with increasing stories about Brexit in the media.
The wish is father to the thought....
This could also be a motto for many centre-right posts on PB, ofcourse. I do think the fact that Labour leads are being duplicated by different pollsters is genuinely cause for thought, but obviously the proof of the pudding will be if these leads are sustained.
I remain genuinely astonished that this Government isn't double digits behind in the polls.
There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either. With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
True. It is all about excess deaths as the only metric to determine "success" or "failure".
But it is also true that the vaccine programme will cut down (we bloody well hope - @Lean talking to you) on excess deaths in future.
Hence it will be very difficult to make international comparisons because our rubbish handling of the pandemic to date (via the excess death and international death rates metrics) will be blurred as we roll out the vaccine.
There will be no point in time, or alignment of time series whereby we can make such a comparison meaningful.
Which means that although I think the government should and will be judged by excess deaths, there is no point in time judgement for that to be made.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.
I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
Doubt we will be this summer, certainly not outside UK, even though we'll both be vaccinated (shot 1) by Wednesday midday.
Although we're hoping to be able to see our family in Thailand at Christmas.
Of course the border is actually more than 2 miles north of Berwick. You have to go past the lovely Morrisons first.
I passed my driving test on my 17th birthday, (My father had taught me for months on an old disused airfield) and to celebrate I drove his Austin Westminster on my own of course at a very fast speed (speed not admitted) along the stretch from Berwick and over the border only stopping when I arrived at Eyemouth
How did you get an Austin Westminster up to a very fast speed?
Was it downhill?
It was amazingly powerful
This was in 1961 and it exceeded 100mph
That's interesting, and more than the specs claim.
It was a very heavy car and it was being pushed on the flat to its maximum
Gordo Brown on R4 saying the UK will endure if the argument in defence of it is made properly followed by ‘we need a constitutional commission’ & some Orwellian ‘I’m a patriot not a nationalist’ guff. This fresh, new thinking is bound to do the trick.
The problem with the Union is that there is an ever decreasing sentiment for it, even if there is an economic case.
Union was largely driven by external threat, either because England felt threatened by the back door, hence conquest, or by the threat from France, Germany or Soviet Union giving a more positive reason to stand together.
There is simply little reason for it anymore other than accidents of history.
No nothing at all except to stop Customs Posts at Berwick, inevitable in the event of Scexit or to ensure our place in the G7 and as permanent members of the UN Security Council and protect our place in the world.
Plus of course Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland all have large deficits, only London and the SE raises more in revenue than it spends so if Scotland went independent that would mean deep spending cuts and tax rises would be required from Edinburgh to avoid Scotland going bankrupt. Dublin has also ruled out a border poll for at least 5 years as it does not want to have to fund NI anytime soon
Having now left the EU CU, the Berwick border is going to be a feature of another Scotland referendum in a way that it wasn’t in 2014.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, is there any possible way that we don’t have physical border infrastructure on the M6 and A1, and a rebuilding of Hadrian’s wall in barbed wire?
No there isn't, there would be a hard border along Hadrian's Wall with customs posts and border guards
Hadrian's wall is in England you pillock.
I live north of Hadrian's wall and there's another 50 miles of England north of me.
The wall is just 0.6 miles from the Scottish border at Bowness-on-Solway
You can never concede a point can you?
Given he still hasn't admitted getting the EU Ref turnout in Scotland wrong yesterday I think it is safe to say it is a vanishingly rare event.
And his chances of standing for an mp are also vanishing
why do you say that?
I agree, they vanished long ago.
Or to put it another way, would anyone be mad keen to see Hyufd in Parliament?
Many sterling qualities - good manners, intelligence, an understanding of polling and polling methods matched by few on this board (and certainly better than mine) - but neither the flexibility of mind nor the intellectual courage to make proper policy based on evidence, because he simply refuses to see evidence that doesn't fit his theories. That's not what you want in an MP.
Ah but @HYUFD only went to Warwick University so unfortunately he is not intelligent enough to be an MP by his own measure.
Shame, but we only want the best.
True, but he also spent a year at the greatest university in the world.
I didn't realise he went to Newcastle University for a year?
Aber 't he went to an even better one...
No such thing. Even super Lisa Nandy went to Newcastle!
Aber had Hyufd, Sandpit, me, Prince Charles and Nick Bourne. What more evidence of quality do you want?
Certainly a very broad envelope being stretched there.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.
I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
Doubt we will be this summer, certainly not outside UK, even though we'll both be vaccinated (shot 1) by Wednesday midday.
Although we're hoping to be able to see our family in Thailand at Christmas.
Good luck on Wed! I think that is a reasonable timeframe to plan for travel.
There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either. With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
It's less surprising when you factor in how openly propagandistic much of the print media is compared to the continent ; which is also why it's less surprising how the religious nature of much of the Brexit belief can be waved through.
Funny how the media are now obsessed with hotel quarantine.....in a way they weren't over the summer or Christmas holidays.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
It is like all the twats at the airports moaning...its not fair, not fair....I am coming back from Barbados and it is taking 2hrs to get through passport control....sorry Barbados, what exactly were you doing there....erhhhhh errhhhh business, yes thats it, business.
Yeahbut the hotel said if I tag them in three Instagram posts while I’m there, they’ll give me 10% off my room for the week. That’s work, innit?
'NO justice' if my son's killer dies from Covid: Agony of Lee Rigby's mother as Michael Adebowale 'fights for breath' on ventilator – prompting fears his death from the virus would spare him spending rest of his life in jail
In total, the UK and US have each spent about seven times more upfront, per capita, on vaccine development, procurement and production than the European bloc, according to data gathered by Airfinity, a London-based life sciences analytics company.
While the figures include different types of funding and might not be exactly comparable, the data suggest EU member states should have used more economic firepower earlier to finance upgrades of factories and vaccine raw materials suppliers, said Rasmus Bech Hansen, Airfinity’s chief executive.
There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either. With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
It's easy for us on here to say what they should and shouldn't do. It's completely different when you are the one making the actual decision.
Only because the Johnson government spends all its time playing politics for party political advantage, instead of governing in the interests of the country as a whole.
Talking of border guards, this potential stand-off between Johnson and Sturgeon worries me. I don't think any of us wants to see Johnson sending in the police to arrest key SNP leaders, Catalonia-style.
Which police would he send in?
If his only recourse was to UK-wide, centrally commanded military forces, that really would be the end of the union.
Spain and China both responded to secessionist movements by arresting the key leaders, Catalonia remains part of Spain without its nationalist government having been given even one legal independence referendum, Hong Kong remains part of China and China has removed anti Beijing, pro democracy leaders from the Hong Kong Assembly.
A crackdown may not be advisable but Boris is not going to grant a legal indyref2 knowing he would be more likely to lose it than say Sunak or Starmer would and if he lost it he would have to resign as PM. So why risk it?
Comments
OK, I could have left off the razor wire point but as I said it was Sandpit who originally mentioned border infrastructure and a rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall in barbed wire and I was simply replying to that and saying yes there would be a hard border with Scotland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55796386
I voted for Blair when I was 18. When she was 18, Cabinet Secretary and potential future leader of the party and Prime Minister Liz Truss was actively campaigning for the Liberal Democrats
If it's good enough to make the Cabinet, it's good enough for me.
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/lotus-pistonheads/lotus-confirms-type-131-sports-car-for-2021/43660
May's Deal, which the EU originally agreed with the UK, did effectively keep the whole UK in an EU Customs Union so largely avoided a border in the Irish Sea, the Boris deal however removed GB from any Customs Union with the EU hence there is now a border in the Irish Sea. Even if that border is less than there would have been with no EU trade deal
Of course if Scotland votes for Independence then a border is most likely, but it will not be policed with the army, tanks and razor wire
You need to tone down your rhetoric on this subject, it does you no favours nor the party
The likeliest scenario is that the authority for the referendum will be voted down in Parliament, then the SNP will either back off or hold their own vote which will be boycotted by half the country.
There may be some court cases in Scottish courts if the government there try and spend public money on reserved matters, but the U.K. gov is definitely not going to emulate the Spanish gov from 2017.
Still not great, however.
You sound like you’re looking forward with glee to erecting the border, a bit like the ultra-Remoaners hoping to see food shortages.
The razor wire was quoted for Berwick
That is inevitable and that would not have been the case in 2014 when the UK was still in the EU
Was it downhill?
"The Netherlands police union, NPB, has warned there could be more anti-lockdown riots after hundreds were arrested over the weekend in several cities.
“We haven’t seen so much violence in 40 years,” union board member Koen Simmers said on television program Nieuwsuu"
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1353651563106070528?s=20
That border would have to be policed by customs officials at the very least.
This was in 1961 and it exceeded 100mph
and I just realised that was 60 years ago
I've always wanted a 2.2 Series 2 Esprit but then when I go to look at one I always recoil from the Morris Marina interior and sub-Marina build quality. They remind me very much of 2CVs; there is an amazing amount of engineering genius in them but 95% of that genius is channeled into making them as cheap as possible to build.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638355196669952?s=20
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1353638632805064704?s=20
Leaving the EU being the only material change since 2014 there would thus be no case for Scotland to leave the UK or the UK single market and to rejoin the EU.
https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/covid-infection-rates-as-much-as-333-higher-for-some-teachers/
The virus is landing a stream of cruel blows. We're taking some punishment. It looks worse than ever to the untrained eye. But all is not as it seems. Although we are getting pummeled we are at the same time gaining strength and being clever, deploying our unflashy weapons, stealthily advancing our counterattack towards the point where the balance of power flips and we punch our adversary to its ultimate and inevitable defeat.
It's like Ali Foreman, Zaire, where we are Ali and this is the middle of the 5th round. It's not particularly like this, though, because there Ali (us) came out in the 8th (the Spring) and poleaxed George (the virus) in a sudden switch of momentum. That will not be happening with the pandemic. There will not be a knockout in the Spring. There will be a dawning of recognition that we are getting on top but it will probably take the full 15 rounds (Summer 22) to finish it.
So, perhaps we forget the boxing and settle instead for the notion of running a half marathon - the image painted in the excellent post I'm replying to.
The U.K. and Scotland have two things to negotiate as part of the Withdrawal Agreement.
1. Money.
2. Border.
Once these two things are been agreed, then we can talk about the trade agreement.
Now Scotland might see that agreeing to no border makes EU membership more difficult, but that’s a future issue between Scotland and the EU, nothing to do with the UK.
You see how that *looks and sounds* better than saying to Scots that the UK will be sending the troops and the razor wire to Berwick? The end result might be the same, but the political messaging is very different.
Edit: Here it is:
https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/1352581791387934731?s=20
That doesn't let the government off the hook over their handling, if you have high number of cases, you are going to have high number of deaths, but it is certainly a factor as to death rates.
The problem is has become verboten to really tackle this "body positivity" movement.
Two airlines in the region at the time:
TACA - take a chance airways; and
SAHSA - stay at home, stay alive.
Planes had a habit of driving into the mountain range at the end of the runway at Tegucigalpa.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either.
With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.
There was a Russian pilot that used to fly out of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, with a parrot on his shoulder. Sadly, he slammed into the volcano there....
Its as if they have been on their sunshine breaks and now have nothing to look forward to for several months.
I await the screeching for the removal of what they claim is a "racist and discriminatory policy, that hits the poor the hardest", when we get to June.
But I hope you are right and I am wrong.
Telegrpah bleating about how it will cost families thousands. Well, err.. how about not going on holiday?
https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1353661010532589568?s=20
Please change your rhetoric
Jobs have been lost because of Brexit, and net job growth has surely been slower (because economic growth and internal investment has slowed).
Appreciate there are nuances here, but the argument (and I am really thinking about the OBR rather than, say, AC Grayling) is intact.
But it is also true that the vaccine programme will cut down (we bloody well hope - @Lean talking to you) on excess deaths in future.
Hence it will be very difficult to make international comparisons because our rubbish handling of the pandemic to date (via the excess death and international death rates metrics) will be blurred as we roll out the vaccine.
There will be no point in time, or alignment of time series whereby we can make such a comparison meaningful.
Which means that although I think the government should and will be judged by excess deaths, there is no point in time judgement for that to be made.
Although we're hoping to be able to see our family in Thailand at Christmas.
I did not tell my Father, obviously !!!!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9182307/Lee-Rigby-killer-Michael-Adebowale-29-oxygen-hospital-contracting-coronavirus.html
I kinda of take the bit in bold as a given.
While the figures include different types of funding and might not be exactly comparable, the data suggest EU member states should have used more economic firepower earlier to finance upgrades of factories and vaccine raw materials suppliers, said Rasmus Bech Hansen, Airfinity’s chief executive.
“It’s tricky but I just think there are special circumstances in a pandemic,” he said. “Everything is a trade-off and timing is just so critical — weeks and months mean a lot.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c9bbc753-97fb-493a-bbb6-dd97a7c4b807
A crackdown may not be advisable but Boris is not going to grant a legal indyref2 knowing he would be more likely to lose it than say Sunak or Starmer would and if he lost it he would have to resign as PM. So why risk it?