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Is Biden going honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right? – politicalbett

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....

    Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.

    Weekend figures day 1
    Still curious why the numbers halve between Friday and Saturday.
    Getting 7-day full capacity is much more important to me than getting 24h opening. When the programme moves down to working age people weekend appointments will be even more important than usual.
    100% agreed.

    Many GP surgeries are closed over the weekend, but a solution is needed for 7-day operations.
    Is it though? If we can deliver say 3-4 million doses a week, mainly on Mon-Fri, does it matter if the total every day is not the same?
    It's really only an issue if stocks of the jab back up on weekends, when they could be being put to work days earlier. By February it might be more of an issue.
    If there’s not a backlog of vials collecting dust, the number of vaccines administered per staff hour worked at the centres is probably best served with everyone on day shifts six days a week. Once vaccine supply isn’t the constraint then evening, early morning and Sunday shifts can be added.

    Once all the healthcare workers are done, a formal protocol for end-of-shift walk-up queue system for spare vaccines might also be useful (if only to avoid negative stories about ‘friends’ of workers being called up).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    eek said:

    rpjs said:

    On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).

    Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.

    DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!

    However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes

    Which would be a nice compromise for those people who currently want to remove the electoral college and just use the popular vote.
    Or you could redistribute Electoral Votes proportionally by State, with the smallest (inc. DC) getting 1.
    That would require a constitutional amendment though, and I don't think it would achieve the 3/4 majority of state ratifications. There are enough small states that get proportionally higher representation in the EC that would block it.
  • Two newlywed pensioners are urging everyone to get vaccinated as they were among the first to receive a dose at a new centre.

    BBC News - Covid-19: Mansfield newlyweds, 90 and 86, in vaccination plea
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-55798328
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited January 2021
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    DavidL said:

    I am going to have 1 more go at this and then let it go. If you test 5k people vaccinated before Christmas in London statistically something like 480 of them will have the virus right now. If its materially less than that it is probable that immunisation prevents infection to some degree. Of course you would need to consider if those tested, given their age, were more sheltered than the community as a whole but you would very rapidly get some idea. If next to none of them have the virus you can be reasonably confident that you are not just symptomless but uninfected and therefore extremely likely not to infect anyone else.

    I just don't believe that this would be that hard. We have huge testing capacity at the present time. Lets find out!

    Yes, you could do that. But what you're describing is what was done in the trials, but with fewer people and lacking randomisation. So... why? You spend a load of money and get some results that are less robust and less precise than those you already have.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....

    Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.

    Weekend figures day 1
    Still curious why the numbers halve between Friday and Saturday.
    Getting 7-day full capacity is much more important to me than getting 24h opening. When the programme moves down to working age people weekend appointments will be even more important than usual.
    100% agreed.

    Many GP surgeries are closed over the weekend, but a solution is needed for 7-day operations.
    Is it though? If we can deliver say 3-4 million doses a week, mainly on Mon-Fri, does it matter if the total every day is not the same?
    It's really only an issue if stocks of the jab back up on weekends, when they could be being put to work days earlier. By February it might be more of an issue.
    If there’s not a backlog of vials collecting dust, the number of vaccines administered per staff hour worked at the centres is probably best served with everyone on day shifts six days a week. Once vaccine supply isn’t the constraint then evening, early morning and Sunday shifts can be added.
    Looking at data for Israel, it does rather look as if they are having a weekly effect as well. One centred around Fridays....

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=~ISR&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=daily&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.

    It really is impressive.

    Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.
    That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.

    As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
    The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.
    It will need a change in the law.

    Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
    Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.

    People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.

    Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
    That is an explicitly untrue statement.
    You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.

    Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
    So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.
    Because it takes weeks for them to become effective and then another few weeks for it to feed through into the actual case/hospital numbers. To see what effect the vaccinated numbers have today, you need to see how many people cumulatively had it 5 weeks ago, and that's still a pretty small number, even for us. Which is why all eyes are in Israel right now which was very fast out of the blocks compared to us.
    Roughly 2 weeks and several thousand were innoculated in December. Is there evidence of any of them having the virus (even without being ill) or being a link in a chain of transmission? It is so important.

    Take schools for example. If we can be confident that teachers exposed to children who may well have the virus asymptomatically will not be infected and take it home to their families the arguments about reopening schools (once teachers have been vaccinated) becomes very different. I honestly don't think that there is a more important question out there at the moment. Possibly does any of the variations avoid the protection of vaccination ( a provisional no but watch this space carefully) but short of that.
    How do you find out with any scientific certainty that they were the chains in transmission?

    Surely the issue with schools isn't teachers, it is children catching it asymptomatically and then taking it back to their families. That will happen even if teachers are vaccinated.
    The kids passing it around between families was one issue, the other was the number of staff absent - either with the virus itself, or isolating having been in contact with someone sick.

    If we can exempt vaccinated school staff from having to isolate when not positive themselves, perhaps with regular testing, that will help keep the schools open.
    Just because the teachers are vaccinated that doesn't mean they can't infect others though

    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483423173521408

    Granted it's going to be less of a problem but it's still a possible problem.
    That's a handy visualisation.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    rpjs said:

    On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).

    Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.

    DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!

    However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes

    Very interesting - but didn’t Texas have to adopt a new constitution in 1845 (admittedly, the earlier one did start with ‘Constitution of the Republic of Texas’).

    I seem to remember that holding a constitutional convention was a requirement before Hawaii and Alaska were admitted to statehood as well.
    Yes, Texas did adopt a state constitution before admission. I'd have to go dig to see if Congress mandated it or not, but Vermont does set the precedent that if a putative state already has a constitution, and Congress is cool with it, it can be admitted as is. And PR does already have a Congressionally-approved and popularly adopted constitution.

    Hawaii and Alaska followed the more usual route for federal territories becoming states and adopted state constitutions ahead of admission. However, the difference with PR is that standard federal territories are "organized" by Act of Congress, i.e. their internal "constitution" is a federal statute handed down to them, not a document adopted by the territory itself. Puerto Rico, as a "free and associated Commonwealth" is no longer an organized territory like Alaska and Hawaii (and a whole slew of other states) were immediately before admission.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Akiva Cohen, an excellent lawyer on the election - who was sceptical of Dominion's chances against Giuliani vis a vis malice (Which is a very steep hurdle in the US) thinks they've got enough to get to discovery.

    https://twitter.com/AkivaMCohen/status/1353700641240186880
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
  • slade said:

    Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?

    I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.

    Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?
    I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021



    slade said:

    Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?

    I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.

    Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?
    I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?
    Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.
  • Need to be a shifty on in Scotland...

    The first minister said 46% of over-80s in the community have now received the first of their two vaccines.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    I like Raab at 15s. I think that's a decent price for a true blue Leaver who is prime of life, Foreign Secretary, and not Michael Gove.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.
    That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.

    Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.

    On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.

    The government owns this deal completely now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    66% strongly agree on getting COVID vaccine in UK (86% agree). In France it's 29%.

    https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1353721054607376384?s=20
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,939
    It’s a pity that Boris Johnson isn’t visiting today, for Burns Night. The following would be apt.

    “ Ye see yon birkie ca’d a lord,
    Wha struts, an’ stares, an’ a’ that,
    Tho’ hundreds worship at his word,
    He’s but a coof for a’ that.
    For a’ that, an’ a’ that,
    His ribband, star, an’ a’ that,
    The man o’ independent mind,
    He looks an’ laughs at a’ that.”

    The Fairliered household will be watching the Big Burns Supper tonight. Hope it’s ok to post a link in case any of you are interested.

    http://bigburnssupper.com/
  • rpjs said:

    eek said:

    rpjs said:

    On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).

    Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.

    DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!

    However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes

    Which would be a nice compromise for those people who currently want to remove the electoral college and just use the popular vote.
    Or you could redistribute Electoral Votes proportionally by State, with the smallest (inc. DC) getting 1.
    That would require a constitutional amendment though, and I don't think it would achieve the 3/4 majority of state ratifications. There are enough small states that get proportionally higher representation in the EC that would block it.
    Remember, this just for a bit of fun!

    California 65
    Texas 44
    New York 34
    Florida 33
    Illinois 22
    Pennsylvania 22
    Ohio 20
    Michigan 17
    Georgia 17
    North Carolina 17
    New Jersey 15
    Virginia 14
    Washington 12
    Massachusetts 11
    Indiana 11
    Arizona 11
    Tennessee 11
    Missouri 11
    Maryland 10
    Wisconsin 10
    Minnesota 9
    Colorado 9
    Alabama 8
    South Carolina 8
    Louisiana 8
    Kentucky 8
    Oregon 7
    Oklahoma 7
    Connecticut 6
    Iowa 5
    Mississippi 5
    Arkansas 5
    Kansas 5
    Utah 5
    Nevada 5
    New Mexico 4
    West Virginia 3
    Nebraska 3
    Idaho 3
    Hawaii 2
    Maine 2
    New Hampshire 2
    Rhode Island 2
    Montana 2
    Delaware 2
    South Dakota 1
    Alaska 1
    North Dakota 1
    Vermont 1
    District of Columbia 1
    Wyoming 1
    TOTAL 538
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
  • kle4 said:



    slade said:

    Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?

    I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.

    Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?
    I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?
    Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.
    Ooh, you were close! Kurz (Kurtz is from Heart Of Darkness), became Chancellor at 31
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Wise if the contest is in the next couple of years at least. After that, it might open up.

    Truss has had a good Brexit. Getting Things Done might not be a bad USP....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.

    It really is impressive.

    Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.
    That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.

    As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
    The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.
    It will need a change in the law.

    Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
    Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.

    People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.

    Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
    That is an explicitly untrue statement.
    You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.

    Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
    So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.
    We will have the answers in time, but we are barely a month or so into a vaccination program, with a country in lockdown, and notably, most of those who have been vaccinated, likely to be shielding (effectively or actually). I think most scientists will expect the level of transmission to drop significantly. Essentially if the virus cannot take hold in the body, it cannot replicate to provide the source for new infections. However, most clinical trials have not specifically looked for proof of this, rather they have focussed on preventing illness in those vaccinated.
    Have patience.
    It's not proven the vaccine reduces infection and thus spread, since the trials didn't test for this and it's too early in the rollout for it to show up, nevertheless in theory it should and the subject matter experts are confident it will. So it will be an unpleasant surprise if it doesn't. That's my understanding on this.
    It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.
    Just bung him a peerage. Aprobation, elevation, castration.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    It’s a pity that Boris Johnson isn’t visiting today, for Burns Night. The following would be apt.

    “ Ye see yon birkie ca’d a lord,
    Wha struts, an’ stares, an’ a’ that,
    Tho’ hundreds worship at his word,
    He’s but a coof for a’ that.
    For a’ that, an’ a’ that,
    His ribband, star, an’ a’ that,
    The man o’ independent mind,
    He looks an’ laughs at a’ that.”

    The Fairliered household will be watching the Big Burns Supper tonight. Hope it’s ok to post a link in case any of you are interested.

    http://bigburnssupper.com/

    Whew - Boris would have had no chance against such sick Burns...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2021


    It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.

    Yes, but Covid-19 is a bit unusual in being so infectious before the appearance of symptoms. I would be surprised if there's no reduction in spread at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if the reduction is relatively modest (though IANAE, of course, and I hope I'm wrong on the latter point).
  • RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.
    Just bung him a peerage. Aprobation, elevation, castration.
    If it gets him out of the Cabinet then I can live with that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.
    That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.

    Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.

    On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.

    The government owns this deal completely now.
    You mean that one where the Leader of the Opposition said "Me too! I want to own it as well...."?
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnson


  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.
    It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed up
    One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.
    One also means "put an end to" or "crush"
    Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.
    Apart from certain PBers who would like to scotch the Scotch?
    Perhaps we should scotch the scotching of the Scotch?
    The next PBer who refers to Scots as Scotch instead of Scottish goes straight to ConHome for a month. :angry:

    Scotch is a bloody drink, ffs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You're only making things worse, Philip. When I said "choose dignity", that was genuine and well meant advice, not an attempt to put down and patronize. The deal is a good one from the viewpoint of a hard leaver such as yourself. You should be pleased with the outcome. Just bank that. There's no need to gild it by making out you have, or have ever had, the slightest clue what you're talking about.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.
    That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.

    Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.

    On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.

    The government owns this deal completely now.
    You mean that one where the Leader of the Opposition said "Me too! I want to own it as well...."?
    Theresa May couldn't convince her own party to back her deal.
    Boris Johnson could convince the opposition to back his.

    What a difference in talent.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
    You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.
  • kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:



    A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.

    The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.

    Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.
    Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".

    What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
    Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.
    Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!
    You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.

    I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
    Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.
    Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.

    I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.

    I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
    "Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.

    Can you see many as you gaze around?
    Its our present reality.

    Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
    Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.
    Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.

    As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.

    I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.

    So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
    You're only making things worse, Philip. When I said "choose dignity", that was genuine and well meant advice, not an attempt to put down and patronize. The deal is a good one from the viewpoint of a hard leaver such as yourself. You should be pleased with the outcome. Just bank that. There's no need to gild it by making out you have, or have ever had, the slightest clue what you're talking about.
    Except for the fact that events transpired as I foresaw in 2018. Apart from that you mean?

    I told you so for years, then it happened.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
    You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.
    Funny I hear a lot of non-Tories doing that! ;)
  • Burns Night. Am generally disinterested in poetry that isn't set to music, so Meh to Rabbie Burns. However, I am happy to partake in a Haggis Supper and a large dram. Can't get the Haggis supper down here as chippy doesn't do them, but will make up for it in a few weeks after navigating HYUFD's barbed wire and gun towers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.

    It really is impressive.

    Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.
    That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.

    As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
    The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.
    It will need a change in the law.

    Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
    Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.

    People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.

    Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
    That is an explicitly untrue statement.
    You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.

    Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
    So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.
    We will have the answers in time, but we are barely a month or so into a vaccination program, with a country in lockdown, and notably, most of those who have been vaccinated, likely to be shielding (effectively or actually). I think most scientists will expect the level of transmission to drop significantly. Essentially if the virus cannot take hold in the body, it cannot replicate to provide the source for new infections. However, most clinical trials have not specifically looked for proof of this, rather they have focussed on preventing illness in those vaccinated.
    Have patience.
    It's not proven the vaccine reduces infection and thus spread, since the trials didn't test for this and it's too early in the rollout for it to show up, nevertheless in theory it should and the subject matter experts are confident it will. So it will be an unpleasant surprise if it doesn't. That's my understanding on this.
    They have proven that people who are infected and are vaccinated have much lower viral loads in their bodies. It would be a great surprise if that lower viral load did not correlate with lower infectiousness.

    And there's another thing too: viruses make us sneeze and cough, because that's a really good way of getting us to spread them. If we're asymptomatic, and therefore not sneezing and coughing, we're probably not going to be as good at spreading the disease. (That doesn't mean there won't be some spread, of course, only that it will be less.)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,939
    This what is happening regarding vaccinations in our area. Seven days a week but not 24 hours per day.
    https://www.nhsaaa.net/news/latest-news/nhs-ayrshire-arran-s-mass-vaccination-programme/
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
    You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.
    Define "not a Tory" please.

    I've been a party member since 2004 onwards, voting for Cameron in 2005. Except for quitting the party when Theresa May was PM as her xenophobia and authoritarianism disgusted me and I wanted nothing to do with her.

    I hold my head up high with that. If accepting xenophobia and authoritarianism from May is required to be a Tory then I wouldn't want to be a Tory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209


    It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.

    Yes, but Covid-19 is a bit unusual in being so infectious before the appearance of symptoms. I would be surprised if there's no reduction in spread at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if the reduction is relatively modest (though IANAE, of course, and I hope I'm wrong on the latter point).
    CV19 is (principally) a disease of the upper respiratory tract, which is a great place to go from if you want to spread. That early infectiousness (one would think) is when the disease is there, being blown out of your mouth and nose, and before it's spread to the rest of your body (and made you feel rubbish).

    The question, really, is whether the body recognises CV19 as a serious problem when it's still there, or if the immune response only kicks in when it spreads.

    The nasal application of the AZN vaccine in monkeys suggests that you might be right. On the other hand, the measured viral shedding of vaccinated people is substantially lower (at least for the Pfizer vaccine).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnson
    Exactly. He needs that and sadly it works. Just look at all the vitriol from the schools fiasco and compute how much of it is poured over the monkey (Williamson) as opposed to the organ grinder (Johnson). It's about 90/10 when it should be 10/90.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Why aren't they using the phone?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,939



    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.
    It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed up
    One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.
    One also means "put an end to" or "crush"
    Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.
    Apart from certain PBers who would like to scotch the Scotch?
    Perhaps we should scotch the scotching of the Scotch?
    The next PBer who refers to Scots as Scotch instead of Scottish goes straight to ConHome for a month. :angry:

    Scotch is a bloody drink, ffs.
    Surprised that Boris hasn’t yet referred to the SNP as the Scotch Nationalist Party at PMQs. If he does this week we will know he reads PB.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    Or not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.

    I hope someone asks Hancock during "Hancock's Half Hour". "The EU have failed to secure supply, invested less than the UK, ordered later than the UK, now they are expecting to get some of the UK's supply - do you agree?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
    You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.
    And you are?

    lol....
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.
    He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.

    I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.

    Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.

    I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    That'd be pretty outrageous if it happened.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,673
    It's not approved for the EU yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    That’s weird, ‘cos for the past 25 days there’s been a constant stream of retweets saying that it’s almost impossible to ship anything from the UK to the EU at the moment!

    Also funny for the MEP to seemingly not understand that AZ is not yet approved in the EU, nor that they don’t exactly have a problem selling everything they produce right now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    It's not approved for the EU yet.
    They clearly want to stockpile it.
  • RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    If they purloin our supply, will that be jeered or cheered by Remainiacs?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?

    I can hear the Guns of August.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Wise if the contest is in the next couple of years at least. After that, it might open up.

    Truss has had a good Brexit. Getting Things Done might not be a bad USP....
    She is clearly an enhanced figure - albeit from a position of considerable flimsiness to start with. I haven't totally ruled her out of my calculus. For me, her chances are greater if the contest comes with the Cons in opposition having just lost an election.
  • As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E

    Horrible and truly nasty.

    * Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔
  • TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.
    He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.

    I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.

    Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.

    I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.
    Rishi as PM, Truss as Chancellor would be my absolute dream team for next government after Boris moves on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hancock is the kind of plausible chancer who might well get the leadership.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    So he is suggesting that a vaccine which the EU27 can't yet legally use should be diverted from the UK, which is using it, and which ordered it first, and which invested in it?

    Hmm..
    To be fair, that would have been the general gist of the EU vaccine procurement program had the UK joined.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.
    You're a diehard something or other.
    They don't want you back.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.
    He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.

    I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.

    Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.

    I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.
    I think Sunak's actions in opposing lockdowns and promoting policies now seen to have been, to say the least, unwise (EOTHO) will be brought out by those who wish him ill in any leadership contest. And he doesn't have much of a defence as far as I can see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?

    I can hear the Guns of August.
    Colonel @HYUFD may have to reposition his assets in preparation. There's now a bigger threat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E

    Horrible and truly nasty.

    * Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔

    You're not selling giving up half an hour of my life listening to it, then.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    edited January 2021

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?
    Yes.

    We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.

    Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
    Voted Remain but accepted the result and got behind Leave.

    That's HYUFD to a tee! Is he rolling the pitch?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.

    Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.

    I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
    Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no more
    That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.
    He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.

    I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.

    Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.

    I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.
    Rishi as PM, Truss as Chancellor would be my absolute dream team for next government after Boris moves on.
    Agreed, but the danger is that he’s at the peak of his popularity now, and only a few months away from having to announce a plan to start moving towards possibly thinking about the costs of the past year.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?
    They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:

    The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
    Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?

    I can hear the Guns of August.
    Colonel @HYUFD may have to reposition his assets in preparation. There's now a bigger threat.
    Just someone tell him where the border is......
  • IanB2 said:

    As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E

    Horrible and truly nasty.

    * Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔

    You're not selling giving up half an hour of my life listening to it, then.
    Its a half hour I wouldn't mind getting back. Except for the fact it helped me foresee what a distaster Theresa May would be. No regrets at tearing up my membership when she was elected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Pulpstar said:

    Akiva Cohen, an excellent lawyer on the election - who was sceptical of Dominion's chances against Giuliani vis a vis malice (Which is a very steep hurdle in the US) thinks they've got enough to get to discovery.

    https://twitter.com/AkivaMCohen/status/1353700641240186880

    It's an absorbing read that filing. I hadn't realised how much Giuliani was shilling products whilst lying about the election.

    According to Dominion they were repeatedly accused of secreting being another company, who are in fact their competitor, too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.
    Which is why I do expect Gav to be sacked before too long. If he isn't it would indicate something untoward at the heart of government. Or something else untoward at the heart of government rather.
  • NEW THREAD

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    What do they expect if they want to pinch our vaccines?

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353730587350212608?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.
    A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.
    There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like this

    image

    with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
    It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.
    Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.
    Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.

    Williamson, oh dear.
    Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?

    Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
    Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.
    A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?
    Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnson
    Exactly. He needs that and sadly it works. Just look at all the vitriol from the schools fiasco and compute how much of it is poured over the monkey (Williamson) as opposed to the organ grinder (Johnson). It's about 90/10 when it should be 10/90.
    30/90.
    An excess of vitriol is not entirely unwarranted.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    kle4 said:



    slade said:

    Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?

    I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.

    Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?
    I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?
    Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.
    Almost in their dotage. Baby Doc Duvalier was 19 when he took over from his father. San Marino has had 4 heads of government under 30 - the last one was last year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    slade said:

    kle4 said:



    slade said:

    Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?

    I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.

    Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?
    I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?
    Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.
    Almost in their dotage. Baby Doc Duvalier was 19 when he took over from his father. San Marino has had 4 heads of government under 30 - the last one was last year.
    Well sure, but any young idiot can take over when they have the right genes in a pseudo monarchy.

    Though 19 year olds can work out - Look at Gaius Octavius.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    edited January 2021
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.

    It really is impressive.

    Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.
    That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.

    As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
    The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.
    It will need a change in the law.

    Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
    Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.

    People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.

    Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
    That is an explicitly untrue statement.
    You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.

    Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
    So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.
    Because it takes weeks for them to become effective and then another few weeks for it to feed through into the actual case/hospital numbers. To see what effect the vaccinated numbers have today, you need to see how many people cumulatively had it 5 weeks ago, and that's still a pretty small number, even for us. Which is why all eyes are in Israel right now which was very fast out of the blocks compared to us.
    Roughly 2 weeks and several thousand were innoculated in December. Is there evidence of any of them having the virus (even without being ill) or being a link in a chain of transmission? It is so important.

    Take schools for example. If we can be confident that teachers exposed to children who may well have the virus asymptomatically will not be infected and take it home to their families the arguments about reopening schools (once teachers have been vaccinated) becomes very different. I honestly don't think that there is a more important question out there at the moment. Possibly does any of the variations avoid the protection of vaccination ( a provisional no but watch this space carefully) but short of that.
    How do you find out with any scientific certainty that they were the chains in transmission?

    Surely the issue with schools isn't teachers, it is children catching it asymptomatically and then taking it back to their families. That will happen even if teachers are vaccinated.
    The kids passing it around between families was one issue, the other was the number of staff absent - either with the virus itself, or isolating having been in contact with someone sick.

    If we can exempt vaccinated school staff from having to isolate when not positive themselves, perhaps with regular testing, that will help keep the schools open.
    Just because the teachers are vaccinated that doesn't mean they can't infect others though

    https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483423173521408

    Granted it's going to be less of a problem but it's still a possible problem.
    That's a handy visualisation.
    Tesco can refuse entry would be one idea there :smile: .
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