In a Tweet how Johnson’s handling of the Christmas lockdown exposes his big weakness – politicalbett

AlwaysSinging said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times

On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:

‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’

Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.

As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.

(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)

I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.

--AS

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times

On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:

‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’

Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.

As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.

(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)

I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.

--AS

I read it as additive to the base R rate i.e. ~3-4 i.e. the rate of reproduction with no restrictions in place.

rottenborough said:

Is Rishi Sunak Lloyd George?

solarflare said:

A new mutant covid strain, tier 4 till Easter, and border closures and freight disruption, how much is the FTSE going to tank it tomorrow?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster

Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good

Your calls for unity didn’t last long.

I want the best for the job to be honest

Paul Davies?

I am not impressed to be honest

FF43 said:

This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1340784599153172486

TrèsDifficile said:

Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?

Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?

MaxPB said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/RoyLilley/status/1340783459351076865

Fuckwit. No they have control over their borders. And quite right to. They are doing what is best for their citizens. I hope we would do the same in similar circumstances. Though I am not so sure with the current lot in power.

We cut off travel from Denmark when they had Mink COVID. Everyone is using the same emergency exceptional use of border suspension.

Mortimer said:

IanB2 said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times

On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:

‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’

Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.

As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.

(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)

I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.

--AS

And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.

Suddenly lots of my London mates have contacts with positive tests. They've been working from home but mixing outside.

HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.

Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.

The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.

COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.

I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.

CarlottaVance said:

In discussions about relative number of cases - important to factor in relative number of tests:

https://twitter.com/highfivedave/status/1340791716966707200?s=20

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Scott_xP said:

TrèsDifficile said:

For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage.

Not a clue...

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1340767936550723584

That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.

Remainiac No. 1...

Disaster for Scotland

It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.

Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal.
Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.

Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.

FF43 said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?

Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?

You voted for this nonsense apparently, so why should you worry about it?

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/johngapper/status/1340742125214965760

Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.

Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.

Luckyguy1983 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1340784599153172486

You only realised this now? It's been obvious for at least 10 years.

Brexit needs to be settled for that. Impossible to do anything in the midst of it. All in good time.

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Scott_xP said:

TrèsDifficile said:

For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage.

Not a clue...

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1340767936550723584

That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.

Remainiac No. 1...

Disaster for Scotland

It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.

Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal.
Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.

Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.

It is the price of capitalism.

Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.

By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.

Spot on.

Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.

If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

gealbhan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1340764267193262081?s=20

Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.

Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?

I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.

Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.

At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases



Other countries will be similar.

This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.

Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.

Started rising before the end, unfortunately.

Yes, but it was going down before then.

If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.

Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.

The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0

Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.

As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.

The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.

This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.

With COVID,

0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit

If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.

I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.

The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

In discussions about relative number of cases - important to factor in relative number of tests:

https://twitter.com/highfivedave/status/1340791716966707200?s=20

Most testing per capita and most vaccinations per capita.

And still some people think everything is dreadful currently in this country.

rpjs said:

NY Governor Cuomo calling for flights from UK to US to be suspended.

Mortimer said:

IanB2 said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times

On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:

‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’

Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.

As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.

(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)

I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.

--AS

And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.

Suddenly lots of my London mates have contacts with positive tests. They've been working from home but mixing outside.

HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.

Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster

Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good

Your calls for unity didn’t last long.

I want the best for the job to be honest

Paul Davies?

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

gealbhan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1340764267193262081?s=20

Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.

Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?

I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.

Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.

At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases



Other countries will be similar.

This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.

Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.

Started rising before the end, unfortunately.

Yes, but it was going down before then.

If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.

Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.

The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0

Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.

As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.

The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.

This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.

With COVID,

0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit

If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.

I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.

The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.

0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?

Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.

In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.

Alistair said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Scott_xP said:

TrèsDifficile said:

For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage.

Not a clue...

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1340767936550723584

That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.

Remainiac No. 1...

Disaster for Scotland

It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.

Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal.
Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.

Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.

It is the price of capitalism.

Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.

By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.

The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.

COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.

I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.

Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.

I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either

The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.

However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.

Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.

YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."

It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.

To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1340796734323253248

Jesus Hampshire is terrible (where I'm originally from)

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

gealbhan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1340764267193262081?s=20

Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.

Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?

I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.

Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.

At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases



Other countries will be similar.

This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.

Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.

Started rising before the end, unfortunately.

Yes, but it was going down before then.

If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.

Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.

The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0

Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.

As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.

The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.

This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.

With COVID,

0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit

If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.

I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.

The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.

0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?

Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.

In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.

According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.

But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

gealbhan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1340764267193262081?s=20

Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.

Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?

I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.

Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.

At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases



Other countries will be similar.

This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.

Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.

Started rising before the end, unfortunately.

Yes, but it was going down before then.

If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.

Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.

The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0

Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.

As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.

The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.

This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.

With COVID,

0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit

If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.

I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.

The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.

0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?

Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.

In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.

The specific number is 70% higher. It's horrific.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Oh Sean is back!

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

kinabalu said:

gealbhan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1340764267193262081?s=20

Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.

Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?

I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.

Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.

At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases



Other countries will be similar.

This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.

Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.

Started rising before the end, unfortunately.

Yes, but it was going down before then.

If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.

Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.

The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0

Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.

As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.

The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.

This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.

With COVID,

0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit

If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.

I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.

The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.

0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?

Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.

In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.

Alistair said:

I think there should be a PB swear jar for incorrect use of virulent.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Oh I see Philip is now doing the Trump line of there's no issue because we test more, I am convinced he's here on a wind up

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:

https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country

The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....

According to the FT, the UK and Denmark have the ‘best genetic sequencing’ in the world. I have no idea if or why this is true. But it is intriguing that these are the two countries to react like scalded cats to potential mutations. In Denmark they slaughtered the mink. In the UK we have very sensibly kept out the French, who were clearly trying to steal our world-beating mutation in wheels of Dorset Camembert

TrèsDifficile said:

DougSeal said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?

Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?

I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.

Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.

TrèsDifficile said:

Alistair said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Scott_xP said:

TrèsDifficile said:

For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage.

Not a clue...

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1340767936550723584

That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.

Remainiac No. 1...

Disaster for Scotland

It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.

Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal.
Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.

Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.

It is the price of capitalism.

Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.

By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.

I can't argue with any of that. Now might be the perfect opportunity for us to make a serious state aided (WeverTF the EU say about state aid) development of other ports.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Leon said:

rpjs said:

NY Governor Cuomo calling for flights from UK to US to be suspended.

Indeed. The idea that the EU is using the mutoid Supercovid to punish us/forewarn us about the idiocies of Hard Brexit is largely nonsense.

Iran has also suspended flights to/from UK.

More likely, every global government has looked at the UK data supplied to WHO, and got the squits, as they realise this strain is potentially so virulent it cannot be locked down. It will always win. It is the Alien in Alien. Except there is no escape podule. No Sigourney Weaver in white knickers.

As said below, their efforts to save the cat are probably fruitless anyway. If this strain is that bad, it will find a way into every country, if it hasn’t already in most of Western Europe.

Hi Sean.

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

malcolmg said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Scott_xP said:

TrèsDifficile said:

For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage.

Not a clue...

https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1340767936550723584

That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.

Remainiac No. 1...

Disaster for Scotland

It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.

Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal.
Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.

Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.

It is the price of capitalism.

Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.

By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.

Spot on.

Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.

If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.

Surely then if costs for using dover go up because of queues that will mean freight traffic will redistribute to use other ports, a loss for dover but a gain for those other underused ports

guybrush said:

I'm off PB for 12 hours, and now we're being blockaded by the Frenchies?! And I thought yesterdays news was a bit shite.

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:

https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country

The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....

According to the FT, the UK and Denmark have the ‘best genetic sequencing’ in the world. I have no idea if or why this is true. But it is intriguing that these are the two countries to react like scalded cats to potential mutations. In Denmark they slaughtered the mink. In the UK we have very sensibly kept out the French, who were clearly trying to steal our world-beating mutation in wheels of Dorset Camembert

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster

Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good

Your calls for unity didn’t last long.

I want the best for the job to be honest

Paul Davies?

I am not impressed to be honest

Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!

I am impressed by Price however.

Price is another whinging Nationalist.

Davies however has increased the Tory vote by 6% on 2016 in the latest Senedd poll
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/11/03/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-7/

You don't live here, you don't have to listen to Paul Davies's incoherent ramblings day and night. The only positive in his favour is, at least he is not RT.

TrèsDifficile said:

DougSeal said:

TrèsDifficile said:

DougSeal said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?

Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?

I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.

Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.

You won. Get over it. This is what you voted for. We can’t force another country to supply us with something we don’t have. We can trade for it sure but we can’t force a supply. We can’t declare war on a NATO country (which most EU counties are) as we would automatically be at war with the whole alliance. We are also strategically outflanked by the EU to our east and west. So if something they do interrupts the supply of something they make we are just going to have to live with it. It’s life I’m afraid.

So you're defending the EU if they block our vaccine supplies.

Remainiac No. 2.

BluestBlue said:

guybrush said:

I'm off PB for 12 hours, and now we're being blockaded by the Frenchies?! And I thought yesterdays news was a bit shite.

Tomorrow it will be revealed that the white cliffs of Dover are in fact made of Dairylea...

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

valleyboy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.

I do not think many of us just shrug

This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy

The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come

I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon

We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide

Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope

Say something supportive of Drakeford.

Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.

The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.

COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.

I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.

Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.

I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either

The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.

However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.

Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.

YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."

It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.

To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.

It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster.
Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.

Then we must free Wales' hand.

Wales voted Leave just like England, I am sick to death of whinging Nats trying to wreck our country, it is time Boris slapped them down with an iron fist!!