In other news Trump has filed another case with the Supreme court trying to overturn the results in Pennsylvania. In one "you couldn't make it up" tidbit, his lawyers in this one appear to advertise as specialising in Russian law...
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
They won't [block it], they have specific contingency plans in place for transport
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
Who's saying we will not be able to fly the vaccines in?
Starmer is learning. Trouble is he's not consistent and neither is his party.
Just patriotism, I think. Christianity not to be dissed but neither elevated. As Starmer says here. Good article from him imo. Owen Jones liked it too.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
Didn't it only recently become the dominant strain? Because of exponential growth you wouldn't notice it until right at the end when it balloons out of control.
This is the worst Government, led by the worst PM in history. We are so utterly screwed.
I don't disagree, and yet. The vaccines roll out, the economy recovers - by conference season 2021 Johnson might be feeling quite good about things.
Indeed. 40% of the people are happy to be fooled all the time, thus proving Lincoln's dictum. 40% is enough to win a majority in the UK's voting sustem.
Specific: those trying to make this Superona emergency all about Brexit and Boris, and even gleefully cheering it on, should take a look in the mirror and be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It's the story of the last four years, and now we have a separate huge crisis to deal with at the same time.
I don't usually use that strong terms on here, but under the current circumstances if they don't push for an extension it won't just be the climax of the usual arrogance and over-confidence, but criminally self-destructive negligence.
Total self serving bollocks.
If the border is shut either way what difference does it make if we have a deal or not?
Just get on with it.
Calm down Philip. I've just heard Katya. Nothing has changed. WTO remains a unicorn. Deal coming. Johnson just needs to find a way to pitch it to you and yours.
Yup. A lot of what you expected to eat for Christmas dinner on Friday isn't in the country and isn't coming. Suggest people go out and buy whatever fresh stuff they need the fuck yesterday. Whilst they still can.
Oh... Good job I've got my Ocado order coming tomorrow.
At the time I booked the delivery I wasn't very happy the only slot I could get was 21st Dec but looks like I timed it just right
I have one a 9.00am tomorrow and on adding an item just now there were no out of stock items so maybe the order will be complete but let's see
Brussel Sprouts are VERY cheap at the moment. Stock up!
I always carry some frozen sprouts and to be honest demand is low as my wife cannot stand them
I am not surprised; after all day defrosting in your pocket they must taste even more revolting than usual.
Starmer is learning. Trouble is he's not consistent and neither is his party.
Just patriotism, I think. Christianity not to be dissed but neither elevated. As Starmer says here. Good article from him imo. Owen Jones liked it too.
Blair won the practicing Anglican vote in 1997 and Labour won the Catholic vote even in 2017, though it narrowly went Tory in 2019, so Christian voters are not completely unwinnable for Labour.
I imagine they will stay Tory for now but Starmer could make inroads, certainly more than the atheist Corbyn did anyway
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Isn't the Rosyth route to the Netherlands still open to freight? But otherwise I agree.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
Didn't it only recently become the dominant strain? Because of exponential growth you wouldn't notice it until right at the end when it balloons out of control.
Agreed on your last point.
It was supposed to already have been the dominant strain in London and parts of the South-East over a month ago, IIRC.
Aren't all the most at risk supposed to have been vaccinated sometime before then? Is the suggestion that a lockdown will be justified to protect the (relatively) young and healthy?
Ah good old christian values.....burning heretics, conversion by the sword, torturing people till they confess to being in league with santa, praying the gay away, sexual repression, mysogyny.....how we miss those good old values
That is mainly the Old Testament, while that remains the sole book for Jews with Old Testament Prophet Abraham still a revered Prophet for Muslims, Christianity also includes the New Testament based on the life and message of Christ, hence the title
Thanks for that. I’m sure we were all wondering, Can you explain the relevance of this “Christmas” thing for the unenlightened?
It's when they sacrifice the firstborn on the altar of Mammon with a sub-altar for Daily Mail Advertising Revenues.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
Didn't it only recently become the dominant strain? Because of exponential growth you wouldn't notice it until right at the end when it balloons out of control.
Agreed on your last point.
It was supposed to already have been the dominant strain in London and parts of the South-East over a month ago, IIRC.
No, only recently.
The new strain first occurred in September in the South East, Sir Patrick said. By the middle of November, it accounted for 28 per cent of all new Covid infections in the capital, rising to 62 per cent by December 9.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
Didn't it only recently become the dominant strain? Because of exponential growth you wouldn't notice it until right at the end when it balloons out of control.
Agreed on your last point.
It was supposed to already have been the dominant strain in London and parts of the South-East over a month ago, IIRC.
No, only recently.
The new strain first occurred in September in the South East, Sir Patrick said. By the middle of November, it accounted for 28 per cent of all new Covid infections in the capital, rising to 62 per cent by December 9.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
Stena takes a lot to Holland, using the two biggest ferries in the world
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
The really crucial news, though, is to know whether this is much more, the same, or much less dangerous, and fatal per case, despite the transmissibility. That doesn't seem remotely clear at all to me, so far.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
This is what surprised Dominic Raab. I actually didn't find his comment as stupid as some did.
Specific: those trying to make this Superona emergency all about Brexit and Boris, and even gleefully cheering it on, should take a look in the mirror and be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
Superona: Unique, colorful, high quality lingerie line. Is that what you meant?
It is all about Brexit and Boris, however much you want it not to be. As for cheering on,
"A British fighter pilot who flew over the scene as hundreds of sailors clung to wreckage in the oil-soaked water wrote admiringly: ‘Every man waved and put his thumb up to me…as if they were holidaymakers at Brighton…I saw the spirit which wins wars.’ Yet survivors later asserted that, in truth, they were shaking their fists at the airmen overhead and shouting derisive catcalls: ‘RAF – Rare As Fucking Fairies!’
Specific: those trying to make this Superona emergency all about Brexit and Boris, and even gleefully cheering it on, should take a look in the mirror and be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
Any country with it widely spread would be basically out of ammo against getting R below 1, other than a vaccine. We will all be locked down for 6 months.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
Or any cool eyed enough to recognize a hyperbolic hypothetical?
Idle speculation about how 2020 can give us one final kick: France would extend its block till January 1, and a no-deal Brexit would then kick in, so all the trucks en route in both directions would presumably have the wrong papers...
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
Fuckwit. No they have control over their borders. And quite right to. They are doing what is best for their citizens. I hope we would do the same in similar circumstances. Though I am not so sure with the current lot in power.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.
Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.
Aren't all the most at risk supposed to have been vaccinated sometime before then? Is the suggestion that a lockdown will be justified to protect the (relatively) young and healthy?
According to our local health people will be completing 3rd priority group by Easter
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
Fuckwit. No they have control over their borders. And quite right to. They are doing what is best for their citizens. I hope we would do the same in similar circumstances. Though I am not so sure with the current lot in power.
We cut off travel from Denmark when they had Mink COVID. Everyone is using the same emergency exceptional use of border suspension.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
I read it as additive to the base R rate i.e. ~3-4 i.e. the rate of reproduction with no restrictions in place.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
The Remainiacs on a VPN'd twitter/farcebook "window" I occasionally look at* are screaming that this means that the proper punishment of the UK for Brexit will now be blamed on COVID.
It's only a matter of time before they start claiming that Boris and Cummings cooked up the new variant in a secret lab under the Dean Street Pizza Express (the one where they imprison the fake COVID victims).
*It remind me of the lock boxes for AI viruses in A Fire Upon the Deep.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
Or any cool eyed enough to recognize a hyperbolic hypothetical?
And hopefully also cool eyed enough to avoid threatening us with tweets telling us that we're going to lose all of the vaccines because brexit
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Comments
Sorry.
#smugandblessed.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1340781359464255489?s=20
Saw your post earlier.
You need to get a dictionary and look up what "blockade" means.
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340774723727319050
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
Agreed on your last point.
Specific: those trying to make this Superona emergency all about Brexit and Boris, and even gleefully cheering it on, should take a look in the mirror and be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
I imagine they will stay Tory for now but Starmer could make inroads, certainly more than the atheist Corbyn did anyway
Understatement....
https://twitter.com/sTeamTraen/status/1339958178793070595?s=19
In the immortal words of our PM in waiting, "That is a disgrace!"
Again, with 0.4+ on R, nearly the entire graph would be above 1.0
The new strain first occurred in September in the South East, Sir Patrick said. By the middle of November, it accounted for 28 per cent of all new Covid infections in the capital, rising to 62 per cent by December 9.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-virus-strain-moves-fast-becoming-dominant-variant/
I presume we are going to find it is already well spread across Europe.
Fuller quote from Guardian blog: "winter vegetables such as cauliflower, cabbage and brussels sprouts."
Oh well.
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
It is all about Brexit and Boris, however much you want it not to be. As for cheering on,
"A British fighter pilot who flew over the scene as hundreds of sailors clung to wreckage in the oil-soaked water wrote admiringly: ‘Every man waved and put his thumb up to me…as if they were holidaymakers at Brighton…I saw the spirit which wins wars.’ Yet survivors later asserted that, in truth, they were shaking their fists at the airmen overhead and shouting derisive catcalls: ‘RAF – Rare As Fucking Fairies!’
Max Hastings
Shift everything up 0.4 - nothing below 1.0
It would, I think have gone beyond that. There would have been demands to bring her before the bar of the House, recall elections petitions.
Riverford delivery tomorrow, Able and Cole on Thursday. Sorted.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery
1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
hopefully
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/latest-brexit-offer-selling-eu-fishing-communities-down-the-river-barnier-told-1.4441986
Hope they are underpromising
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
It's only a matter of time before they start claiming that Boris and Cummings cooked up the new variant in a secret lab under the Dean Street Pizza Express (the one where they imprison the fake COVID victims).
*It remind me of the lock boxes for AI viruses in A Fire Upon the Deep.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.