In a Tweet how Johnson’s handling of the Christmas lockdown exposes his big weakness – politicalbett

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In a Tweet how Johnson’s handling of the Christmas lockdown exposes his big weakness – politicalbetting.com

"Johnson’s problem isn’t that he gives way at the first opportunity but that he gives way at the last opportunity" | writes @RossjournoClark https://t.co/ohzD5dLMe4

Read the full story here

dr_spyn

first.

FrancisUrquhart

Bloody hell....adding 0.4 to R apparently was the low end of the estimate.

Documents discussed by government advisers on Friday show 0.4 to be at the lower end of the estimate

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-highest-daily-increase-in-cases-as-concerns-grow-over-new-virus-strain-12168687

CorrectHorseBattery

I need to change my username to LockdownNowHorseBattery

Scott_xP

BoZo is a Cargo Cult Churchill.

He makes the speeches. He wrote the book. He would even smoke the cigars.

But somehow he is still losing the war.

He hasn't figured out you also need to do the leadership part...

WhisperingOracle

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with cases and hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise to the same extent as all these other factors, based on the previous pattern of the virus, and they haven't as yet.

MarqueeMark

That tweet makes no sense.

Would they rather he gives way at the first opportunity? That was Theresa May's fault in their eyes wasn't it?

If giving way at the last opportunity is a problem - should he be Mummy Bear, giving way at just the right mid-point? Decided how?

Or should he maybe never give way? Press on regardless as the deaths pile up?

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

Mysticrose

That tweet is a good example of how less can be more. Evisceration in one sentence.

Meanwhile EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss banning travellers to and from the UK. The convergence with the end of Brexit transition is quite eerie.

Gaussian

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloody hell....adding 0.4 to R apparently was the low end of the estimate.

Documents discussed by government advisers on Friday show 0.4 to be at the lower end of the estimate

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-highest-daily-increase-in-cases-as-concerns-grow-over-new-virus-strain-12168687

Somebody will need to explain to me how it can add a constant value to R. Surely there's a different increase when spreading freely or when under lockdown. The 70% increase on R seems more plausible.

In any case, it's the exponential growth during lockdown light I find the most scary bit in that article. We haven't got much more than shutting the schools left in the armoury.

BluestBlue

Being criticized by Telegraph simpletons who don't want any public health measures at all is a weakness now?

FrancisUrquhart

Travellers book last-minute Eurostar tickets out of the UK

A long line of passengers formed inside St Pancras station in central London on Sunday.

A 23-year-old Frenchman, Francois, said: "I know that it's not really good to leave and go back to France. I haven't seen my family for four months and a half.

"I tried to isolate myself as much as possible.

"I booked my train this morning, not really reasonable because of the evolution of the virus.

"It's a pretty personal choice, I don't feel proud about that."

ydoethur

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

FeersumEnjineeya

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors - they haven't as yet.

That fact that over twice as many deaths were reported this Sunday as last Sunday is an indication that gloom is, unfortunately, justified.

DecrepiterJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

Would they rather he gives way at the first opportunity? That was Theresa May's fault in their eyes wasn't it?

If giving way at the last opportunity is a problem - should he be Mummy Bear, giving way at just the right mid-point? Decided how?

Or should he maybe never give way? Press on regardless as the deaths pile up?

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

The article does identify the political problem with folding late:

It keeps leaving Johnson in an unfortunate time zone: three days behind Sir Keir Starmer.

Scott_xP

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

Even The Telegraph have figured out BoZo is fucking useless, but apparently you haven't.

Strike while the iron is hot.

The early bird catches the worm.

There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

BoZo misses every possible chance to do the right thing at the right time, and endlessly does the wrong thing at the worst possible moment.

That's what it means...

FrancisUrquhart

Gaussian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloody hell....adding 0.4 to R apparently was the low end of the estimate.

Documents discussed by government advisers on Friday show 0.4 to be at the lower end of the estimate

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-highest-daily-increase-in-cases-as-concerns-grow-over-new-virus-strain-12168687

Somebody will need to explain to me how it can add a constant value to R. Surely there's a different increase when spreading freely or when under lockdown. The 70% increase on R seems more plausible.

In any case, it's the exponential growth during lockdown light I find the most scary bit in that article. We haven't got much more than shutting the schools left in the armoury.

I would guess they mean to base value of the R value, which is what ~3-4 for COVID.

WhisperingOracle

FeersumEnjineeya said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors - they haven't as yet.

That fact that twice as many deaths were reported this Sunday as last Sunday is an indication that gloom is, unfortunately, justified.

What time period does each of those figures cover ?

Omnium

Journalists and tweets are a marriage made in hell.

dixiedean

All gone Pete Tong. The shape of a pear.
Depressed.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

Would they rather he gives way at the first opportunity? That was Theresa May's fault in their eyes wasn't it?

If giving way at the last opportunity is a problem - should he be Mummy Bear, giving way at just the right mid-point? Decided how?

Or should he maybe never give way? Press on regardless as the deaths pile up?

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

The article does identify the political problem with folding late:

It keeps leaving Johnson in an unfortunate time zone: three days behind Sir Keir Starmer.

Now, about that ‘Captain Hindsight’ nickname...

gealbhan

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with cases and hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors, based on the previous pattern of the virus - they haven't as yet.

Are we convinced it’s just the strain of virus? Not the determination to come out of 2.0 beginning of December, determination to have Christmas and shop for it, to go racing and other sport stadiums, shift all the students around under a voluntary testing that’s only 50% accurate anyway, with no checks or restrictions at airports, etc etc not built into the spike just a teeny bit?

Black_Rook

Twitter is a total cesspool but it does occasionally come in handy for something. A Twitter feed led me to this, issued by the ONS on Friday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland18december2020#age-differences

Scroll down to section 7, where the ONS estimates that the percentage or people infected with Covid by age group peaks amongst school years 7-11, with the second highest group being young and very young children (primary and below.)

It does not automatically follow that schools are major drivers of the spread of infection to the rest of the community - it may be that children are very good at passing the disease around themselves but somehow less infectious to adults - but unless or until there's strong evidence to confirm this, then much the best thing would be to shutter the schools until further notice.

FeersumEnjineeya

WhisperingOracle said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors - they haven't as yet.

That fact that twice as many deaths were reported this Sunday as last Sunday is an indication that gloom is, unfortunately, justified.

What time period does each of those figures cover ?

A single day, obviously. But the underlying trend has also been upwards for the past few days. Deaths are clearly already rising.

From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths:

ydoethur

Black_Rook said:

Twitter is a total cesspool but it does occasionally come in handy for something. A Twitter feed led me to this, issued by the ONS on Friday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland18december2020#age-differences

Scroll down to section 7, where the ONS estimates that the percentage or people infected with Covid by age group peaks amongst school years 7-11, with the second highest group being young and very young children (primary and below.)

It does not automatically follow that schools are major drivers of the spread of infection to the rest of the community - it may be that children are very good at passing the disease around themselves but somehow less infectious to adults - but unless or until there's strong evidence to confirm this, then much the best thing would be to shutter the schools until further notice.

But it isn’t going to happen. Nick Gibb fooling himself that his penis is large enough is more important than epidemiology.

Mysticrose

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

It makes every sense. The point, made with beautiful simplicity, is that Johnson dithers. He is indecisive. He wanted people to make their own choice about Christmas rather than make it himself which is his frigging job in the midst of a pandemic and being privy to the inside information. He hates taking unpopular decisions because he's a song and dance man who likes to trip the light fantastic. The best place for him.

I'm sorry you don't understand that.

And was it you who criticised the House of Commons Select Committee this morning for daring to do their job and raise questions about the Brexit negotiations?

WhisperingOracle

I don't want to underplay the seriousness of the situation, obviously, but a doubling from last Sunday to this Sunday just wasn't at all what I had understood from Malmesbury's graph. The question of timing and what's included seems quite complicated.

The graph below also seems to point to a recent flattening in the rate of increase of deaths, rather than acceleration, doesn't it ?

To be clear, I'm not suggesting everyone bury their head in the sand, just trying to observe anything usefully positive.

SandyRentool

Those with plans to fly home to Blighty for Christmas may be a bit buggered.

Our niece is due to return from Australia this week. She's been there since Feb.

Scott_xP

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

rkrkrk

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?

Gaussian

gealbhan said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with cases and hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors, based on the previous pattern of the virus - they haven't as yet.

Are we convinced it’s just the strain of virus? Not the determination to come out of 2.0 beginning of December, determination to have Christmas and shop for it, to go racing and other sport stadiums, shift all the students around under a voluntary testing that’s only 50% accurate anyway, with no checks or restrictions at airports, etc etc not built into the spike just a teeny bit?

I think it's both. Without the new strain, the rise might have been similar to what it was in Wales at around 1.5x week. With the new strain, it's above 2x per week.

Obviously though, it would be the best late Christmas present ever if that turns out to be wrong and London case numbers fall off a cliff when today's lockdown makes it into the case numbers after New Year.

Yorkcity

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

Would they rather he gives way at the first opportunity? That was Theresa May's fault in their eyes wasn't it?

If giving way at the last opportunity is a problem - should he be Mummy Bear, giving way at just the right mid-point? Decided how?

Or should he maybe never give way? Press on regardless as the deaths pile up?

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

The article does identify the political problem with folding late:

It keeps leaving Johnson in an unfortunate time zone: three days behind Sir Keir Starmer.

The last PMQs Johnson did was an utter disgrace.
He could at least tried to have warned about the decision he might be about to take.
Which would have made him more credible rather than playing a game of cheap shots in a national crisis.

Black_Rook

gealbhan said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with cases and hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors, based on the previous pattern of the virus - they haven't as yet.

Are we convinced it’s just the strain of virus? Not the determination to come out of 2.0 beginning of December, determination to have Christmas and shop for it, to go racing and other sport stadiums, shift all the students around under a voluntary testing that’s only 50% accurate anyway, with no checks or restrictions at airports, etc etc not built into the spike just a teeny bit?

Insofar as we can tell from what has been reported and stated by the Government, the key thing here is indeed the emergence of a more infectious strain of the virus. Now, it would be a huge relief if the new strain turned out to be less lethal as well as more transmissible, although this wouldn't do anything to get all of us as a society out of the deeper and deeper mess into which we are sinking. Deaths may very well go up regardless if many more cases occur in the first place, and even if deaths decline very significantly it won't do much to stop the hospitals from being swamped. Every patient sick enough to end up needing hospital treatment fills another bed, regardless of whether they're moderately ill or on a ventilator.

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

Mysticrose

Well, the Brexiteers wanted us to go it alone.

Be careful what you wish for.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/20/coronavirus-live-news-nsw-premier-to-provide-update-on-sydney-restrictions-as-northern-beaches-locked-down-uk-tightens-christmas-rules

Luckyguy1983

Black_Rook said:

Twitter is a total cesspool but it does occasionally come in handy for something. A Twitter feed led me to this, issued by the ONS on Friday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland18december2020#age-differences

Scroll down to section 7, where the ONS estimates that the percentage or people infected with Covid by age group peaks amongst school years 7-11, with the second highest group being young and very young children (primary and below.)

It does not automatically follow that schools are major drivers of the spread of infection to the rest of the community - it may be that children are very good at passing the disease around themselves but somehow less infectious to adults - but unless or until there's strong evidence to confirm this, then much the best thing would be to shutter the schools until further notice.

Another alternative would be to divide school populations in half, and have everyone on half shifts - fortnight by fortnight. Would make social distancing easier, significantly reduce transmission, and try to ensure some normality of education. Would also be very hard on friendships, but less so than complete shuttering.

Mysticrose

Yorkcity said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

That tweet makes no sense.

Would they rather he gives way at the first opportunity? That was Theresa May's fault in their eyes wasn't it?

If giving way at the last opportunity is a problem - should he be Mummy Bear, giving way at just the right mid-point? Decided how?

Or should he maybe never give way? Press on regardless as the deaths pile up?

It's a vacuous piece of writing. It makes no sense.

The article does identify the political problem with folding late:

It keeps leaving Johnson in an unfortunate time zone: three days behind Sir Keir Starmer.

The last PMQs Johnson did was an utter disgrace.
He could at least tried to have warned about the decision he might be about to take.
Which would have made him more credible rather than playing a game of cheap shots in a national crisis.

Yes it was appalling.

DecrepiterJohnL

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Schools here are due to start the spring term on the 4th of January, so in line with the Telegraph article in the header, that Boris caves at the last moment, we can expect postponement to be announced on the 3rd. We already have been told the government will not be revisiting tiers until 30th December so that fits nicely.

gealbhan

Gaussian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloody hell....adding 0.4 to R apparently was the low end of the estimate.

Documents discussed by government advisers on Friday show 0.4 to be at the lower end of the estimate

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-highest-daily-increase-in-cases-as-concerns-grow-over-new-virus-strain-12168687

Somebody will need to explain to me how it can add a constant value to R. Surely there's a different increase when spreading freely or when under lockdown. The 70% increase on R seems more plausible.

In any case, it's the exponential growth during lockdown light I find the most scary bit in that article. We haven't got much more than shutting the schools left in the armoury.

People have been out shopping, pubbing with their new mate Scotch Egg, been into sport stadiums (did it look that distanced in the stands to you), public gyms, public johns, travelling to London and back, mass maskless rallies, emptying student halls back into the shires, all this passes as good solid lockdown?

Gaussian

FeersumEnjineeya said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors - they haven't as yet.

That fact that twice as many deaths were reported this Sunday as last Sunday is an indication that gloom is, unfortunately, justified.

What time period does each of those figures cover ?

A single day, obviously. But the underlying trend has also been upwards for the past few days. Deaths are clearly already rising.

From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths:

Not good that they didn't fall anywhere near as far as cases did.

SandyRentool

FrancisUrquhart said:

Travellers book last-minute Eurostar tickets out of the UK

A long line of passengers formed inside St Pancras station in central London on Sunday.

A 23-year-old Frenchman, Francois, said: "I know that it's not really good to leave and go back to France. I haven't seen my family for four months and a half.

"I tried to isolate myself as much as possible.

"I booked my train this morning, not really reasonable because of the evolution of the virus.

"It's a pretty personal choice, I don't feel proud about that."

I guess 'personal choice' and 'selfish choice' translate to the same in French.

AnneJGP

Amusing. But even if the Conservative MPs are eager to get rid of Mr Johnson for someone more up to the task, that does demand that one of their number needs to be up for giving it a go.

Who is that likely to be, at this juncture?

Good evening, everybody.

FF43

Specifically, Johnson is a procrastinating risk-taker. Which is a contradiction, and definitely not a good combination in a leader.

He doesn't go all-in on a strategy that could win big, nor is he steady-as-you-go-we-will-get-there-in-the-end. Instead you end up with chaos to no effect.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1340732954956410881

An alternative take

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1340732351786201088

dixiedean

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

Not sure "incoming" is the appropriate term.

RobD

AnneJGP said:

Amusing. But even if the Conservative MPs are eager to get rid of Mr Johnson for someone more up to the task, that does demand that one of their number needs to be up for giving it a go.

Who is that likely to be, at this juncture?

Good evening, everybody.

And what would their alternative plan be?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsIsabel/status/1340733179716653056

ydoethur

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?

I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.

Black_Rook

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

FrancisUrquhart

The suspension of freight is unpresendented. Nobody did it in March and Germany's restrictions explicitly exclude freight and things like medical personnel.

WhisperingOracle

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1340732954956410881

An alternative take

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1340732351786201088

In the current context, that is quite literally one of the maddest statements I've ever seen by any MP for decades.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

The suspension of freight is unpresendented. Nobody did it in March and Germany's restrictions explicitly exclude freight and things like medical personnel.

Not going to make it easy for the vaccine to come in from Belgium.

Omnium

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.

But what is the bet? Odds may vary!

"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?

"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?

There has to be a timeline too.

You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?

I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.

These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.

Make the best definition you can of the bet.

Scott_xP

WhisperingOracle said:

That is quite literally one of the maddest statements I've seen by any MP for decades.

Except you can imagine the PM repeating it at the despatch box.

That is how deep we are in right now

Razedabode

WhisperingOracle said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1340732954956410881

An alternative take

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1340732351786201088

That is quite literally one of the maddest statements I've seen by any MP for decades.

We are absolutely fucked. Backlog already huge + this + brexit. This will all end in tears and government to blame. Headbangers like Jenkyns sum it all up

Black_Rook

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?

I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.

I predicted a national lockdown to be announced on Friday 8th January some weeks ago, but I think you may be nearer the mark. The sensible thing would be to just shut the damned schools down, but this Government has a long established history of being stubborn and thick as shit until forced by events.

They've made so much play now of in-person education being so very, very important that it must be kept open at all costs that to shut it down again would be the final admission of their impotence and failure. Odds are it'll take just enough time for them to throw in the towel that the new variant will have been thoroughly and evenly spread over every community in the land by the time that they do it.

ydoethur

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.

But what is the bet? Odds may vary!

"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?

"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?

There has to be a timeline too.

You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?

I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.

These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.

Make the best definition you can of the bet.

The bet I am offering is that the government will not announce any closure of schools or reduction in those permitted to attend prior to the 15th Jan, although @rkrkrk suggests 1st Feb.

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

WhisperingOracle said:

That is quite literally one of the maddest statements I've seen by any MP for decades.

Except you can imagine the PM repeating it at the despatch box.

That is how deep we are in right now

You must have a vivid imagination given it lacks hesitations, random pauses and ‘um, er’ sounds, and it’s really hard to imagine a Johnson statement without them.

DecrepiterJohnL

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

nichomar

It looks like if it can go wrong it will go wrong, this looks extremely nasty, the cumulative effects so close to 1/1/2021 with ports already over burdened is going to take the UK into uncharted territory. Some of it is of the governments own making but a lot is ‘events’ who would be the best cinc to manage this? Ken Clarke?

moonshine

Black_Rook said:

Twitter is a total cesspool but it does occasionally come in handy for something. A Twitter feed led me to this, issued by the ONS on Friday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland18december2020#age-differences

Scroll down to section 7, where the ONS estimates that the percentage or people infected with Covid by age group peaks amongst school years 7-11, with the second highest group being young and very young children (primary and below.)

It does not automatically follow that schools are major drivers of the spread of infection to the rest of the community - it may be that children are very good at passing the disease around themselves but somehow less infectious to adults - but unless or until there's strong evidence to confirm this, then much the best thing would be to shutter the schools until further notice.

It’s funny. I read that same link and the key thing that jumps out at me is that by vaccinating all over 75 year olds, we can knock covid hospital admissions down to the ground and wipe maybe 2/3rds off covid deaths.

I categorically do not read that link and think “I know what’s a good idea, closing schools”.

Just think for a minute how selfish that line of thinking is, especially when combined with the £400bn of debt we’re writing this year.

WhisperingOracle

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

Foxy

Bloody Hell, El Salvador thinks we are too dangerous.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340732361412100097?s=19

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

It will be like the average French lorry drivers’ strike on speed, won’t it?

Gallowgate

dixiedean said:

All gone Pete Tong. The shape of a pear.
Depressed.

I'm with @MaxPB. We need total war vaccine deployment and we need it yesterday.

Get Dominic Cummings in charge of it in his command centre for all I care but it must be the number 1 priority, overruling everything else temporarily - civil liberties, property rights, everything.

rkrkrk

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?

I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.

On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.

We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind.
I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?

Yorkcity

AnneJGP said:

Amusing. But even if the Conservative MPs are eager to get rid of Mr Johnson for someone more up to the task, that does demand that one of their number needs to be up for giving it a go.

Who is that likely to be, at this juncture?

Good evening, everybody.

Good evening.
I think it would have to be Jeremy Hunt in the current circumstances.

ydoethur

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

logical_song

Off Topic - Some good news
"the world is in the process of moving on from fossil fuels"
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/20/coal-continues-to-take-it-on-the-chin-as-investors-flee/

WhisperingOracle

If this isn't turned around pretty rapidly, I'm afraid to say we may well see food shortages.

alex_

At least with the new variant we could have herd immunity by sometime in mid January, without even trying.

dixiedean

My youngest is stressed about attending school. Every week, he hears of pupils and their families testing positive and is worried about infecting his parents. His mental health has noticeably improved since they broke up.
The idea schools are open for the sake of kids' mental health is another lazy assertion which ought to be challenged.
For some it will be good, some bad.

WhisperingOracle

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

Razedabode

nichomar said:

It looks like if it can go wrong it will go wrong, this looks extremely nasty, the cumulative effects so close to 1/1/2021 with ports already over burdened is going to take the UK into uncharted territory. Some of it is of the governments own making but a lot is ‘events’ who would be the best cinc to manage this? Ken Clarke?

...we could have extended transition period. Hey, we could have even given businesses some certainty instead of flirting with no deal. But govt decided to tackle unprecedented pandemic and no deal at the same time

FrancisUrquhart

Gallowgate said:

dixiedean said:

All gone Pete Tong. The shape of a pear.
Depressed.

I'm with @MaxPB. We need total war vaccine deployment and we need it yesterday.

Get Dominic Cummings in charge of it in his command centre for all I care but it must be the number 1 priority, overruling everything else temporarily - civil liberties, property rights, everything.

Problem at the moment is there isn't the supply. Not only Pfizer, but AZ ballsed up manufacturing of Oxford vaccine, so even if it is approved in a few days, they don't have the supply they previously claimed would be ready come.the winter.

Foxy

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

We need a cunning plan.

Big_G_NorthWales

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

It really is as it will not only affect French imports but Spanish. Italian and most of all Irish freight through Holyhead

alex_

Razedabode said:

nichomar said:

It looks like if it can go wrong it will go wrong, this looks extremely nasty, the cumulative effects so close to 1/1/2021 with ports already over burdened is going to take the UK into uncharted territory. Some of it is of the governments own making but a lot is ‘events’ who would be the best cinc to manage this? Ken Clarke?

...we could have extended transition period. Hey, we could have even given businesses some certainty instead of flirting with no deal. But govt decided to tackle unprecedented pandemic and no deal at the same time

Unfortunately the No dealers are seeing this as a fabulous opportunity. They are going to get all the consequences of no deal, and they will be able to blame it almost entirely on COVID.

ydoethur

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?

I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.

On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.

We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind.
I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?

I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.

So I suggest the following wording:

‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’

If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.

Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )

nichomar

Foxy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

We need a cunning plan.

We already have a punning clan on here

Big_G_NorthWales

dixiedean said:

My youngest is stressed about attending school. Every week, he hears of pupils and their families testing positive and is worried about infecting his parents. His mental health has noticeably improved since they broke up.
The idea schools are open for the sake of kids' mental health is another lazy assertion which ought to be challenged.
For some it will be good, some bad.

My youngest grandson (6) said to me

'Papa, if I get a cold I will be ok but if I get covid I will die'

Makes you weep

Foxy

alex_ said:

At least with the new variant we could have herd immunity by sometime in mid January, without even trying.

Not quite that quickly, Not least because I would expect a massive voluntary isolation over the holidays.

Omnium

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.

But what is the bet? Odds may vary!

"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?

"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?

There has to be a timeline too.

You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?

I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.

These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.

Make the best definition you can of the bet.

The bet I am offering is that the government will not announce any closure of schools or reduction in those permitted to attend prior to the 15th Jan, although @rkrkrk suggests 1st Feb.

So a tenner then on your terms?

Loser just pays a tenner to PB?

(Let's narrow it down to the government in Westminster to make it clearer anyway, and in your favour)

The bet is sealed assuming you agree as to the above. I'll also agree to you being the arbiter of win/lose.

It'll be interesting to see what the wrinkles might be on 15th Jan.

FrancisUrquhart

The thing is ..all this ban on travel in response to mutant covid should have been there all along (obviously excluding freight).

gealbhan

Black_Rook said:

gealbhan said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with cases and hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors, based on the previous pattern of the virus - they haven't as yet.

Are we convinced it’s just the strain of virus? Not the determination to come out of 2.0 beginning of December, determination to have Christmas and shop for it, to go racing and other sport stadiums, shift all the students around under a voluntary testing that’s only 50% accurate anyway, with no checks or restrictions at airports, etc etc not built into the spike just a teeny bit?

Insofar as we can tell from what has been reported and stated by the Government, the key thing here is indeed the emergence of a more infectious strain of the virus. Now, it would be a huge relief if the new strain turned out to be less lethal as well as more transmissible, although this wouldn't do anything to get all of us as a society out of the deeper and deeper mess into which we are sinking. Deaths may very well go up regardless if many more cases occur in the first place, and even if deaths decline very significantly it won't do much to stop the hospitals from being swamped. Every patient sick enough to end up needing hospital treatment fills another bed, regardless of whether they're moderately ill or on a ventilator.

Since it was flagged up on here that you are PBs arch doom and gloomster I can’t read your posts without seeing sadness from Inside Out.

https://www.clipartkey.com/view/bhmowm_sadness-clipart-inside-out-sadness-png/

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

It really is as it will not only affect French imports but Spanish. Italian and most of all Irish freight through Holyhead

Fresh food crisis within days?

ydoethur

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

Blackadder? I’d settle for Baldrick. At least he *had* a fecking plan.

ydoethur

nichomar said:

Foxy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

We need a cunning plan.

We already have a punning clan on here

Ba boom, Tish!

Gallowgate

In other news, Wetherspoons have put on quite a spectacle in Morpeth, Northumberland.

WhisperingOracle

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

It really is as it will not only affect French imports but Spanish. Italian and most of all Irish freight through Holyhead

Fresh food crisis within days?

What an appalling Christmas.

At least Dickens would have understood it, which is the smallest comfort.

tlg86

If only the world had done this to China in January. Oh well.

rottenborough

WhisperingOracle said:

If this isn't turned around pretty rapidly, I'm afraid to say we may well see food shortages.

Should we immediate vaccinate cross channel lorry drivers?

Big_G_NorthWales

alex_ said:

Razedabode said:

nichomar said:

It looks like if it can go wrong it will go wrong, this looks extremely nasty, the cumulative effects so close to 1/1/2021 with ports already over burdened is going to take the UK into uncharted territory. Some of it is of the governments own making but a lot is ‘events’ who would be the best cinc to manage this? Ken Clarke?

...we could have extended transition period. Hey, we could have even given businesses some certainty instead of flirting with no deal. But govt decided to tackle unprecedented pandemic and no deal at the same time

Unfortunately the No dealers are seeing this as a fabulous opportunity. They are going to get all the consequences of no deal, and they will be able to blame it almost entirely on COVID.

I fear you are right

Foxy

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

Blackadder? I’d settle for Baldrick. At least he *had* a fecking plan.

I think that we currently have Hugh Laurie's Prince George at the helm.

Mortimer

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I need to change my username to LockdownNowHorseBattery

I'm guessing you don't run a business...

ydoethur

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.

But what is the bet? Odds may vary!

"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?

"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?

There has to be a timeline too.

You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?

I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.

These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.

Make the best definition you can of the bet.

The bet I am offering is that the government will not announce any closure of schools or reduction in those permitted to attend prior to the 15th Jan, although @rkrkrk suggests 1st Feb.

So a tenner then on your terms?

Loser just pays a tenner to PB?

(Let's narrow it down to the government in Westminster to make it clearer anyway, and in your favour)

The bet is sealed assuming you agree as to the above. I'll also agree to you being the arbiter of win/lose.

It'll be interesting to see what the wrinkles might be on 15th Jan.

I’ll accept that, separately from the bet I’m negotiating with @rkrkrk, but if you want to come in on whatever we agree later you’re welcome to as far as I’m concerned.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

ydoethur said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

About those deliveries...

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1340729177910239234

Here we go.

Full blown crisis incoming.

If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.

Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.

But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.

This is a major crisis, no doubt.

https://youtu.be/QnSDDXtd5qI

We need Blackadder, not Boris.

Blackadder? I’d settle for Baldrick. At least he *had* a fecking plan.

I think that we currently have Hugh Laurie's Prince George at the helm.

More like General Melchett.

Razedabode

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex_ said:

Razedabode said:

nichomar said:

It looks like if it can go wrong it will go wrong, this looks extremely nasty, the cumulative effects so close to 1/1/2021 with ports already over burdened is going to take the UK into uncharted territory. Some of it is of the governments own making but a lot is ‘events’ who would be the best cinc to manage this? Ken Clarke?

...we could have extended transition period. Hey, we could have even given businesses some certainty instead of flirting with no deal. But govt decided to tackle unprecedented pandemic and no deal at the same time

Unfortunately the No dealers are seeing this as a fabulous opportunity. They are going to get all the consequences of no deal, and they will be able to blame it almost entirely on COVID.

I fear you are right

..I just feel generally angry tonight. I've previously supported the conservatives - but what's happened this year has been a total dereliction of duty. Really, really pissed off with them all.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

WhisperingOracle said:

If this isn't turned around pretty rapidly, I'm afraid to say we may well see food shortages.

Should we immediate vaccinate cross channel lorry drivers?

Too late given it takes five weeks to achieve protection.

dixiedean

Gallowgate said:

In other news, Wetherspoons have put on quite a spectacle in Morpeth, Northumberland.

Similar in the Milecastle Spoons window in Toon on Thursday. Won't be going ever again.

Mortimer

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

WhisperingOracle said:

If this isn't turned around pretty rapidly, I'm afraid to say we may well see food shortages.

Should we immediate vaccinate cross channel lorry drivers?

Too late given it takes five weeks to achieve protection.

10 days after first shot gives a great deal of protection, the studies show IIRC

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1340739296345600006