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In a Tweet how Johnson’s handling of the Christmas lockdown exposes his big weakness – politicalbett

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Comments

  • Only an irresponsible Government let by a moron is still considering No Deal.

    Oh
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    I am getting suspicious about role of media in all this. Will tweets like this one create tomorrow’s unnecessary panic buying stampede, or tomorrow’s necessary panic buying stampede?
    I think that is inevitable
    And shopping is the number one place people catch it, isn’t it?

    Do you remember the riots of 2012? Stoked and spread from London by the media coverage. The LFE put the media in the dock, if they didn’t big it up it wouldn’t have grown and spread. I think the example was French media now ignore the weekly car burning disturbance within Paris as the coverage used to make it worse.

    IMO it was today’s Sunday Express who had “deadly mutant virus” out of control, not something our scientists have ever said this week.
  • tlg86 said:
    Goodness only knows but if so Ireland is going to suffer huge loses of their food and agri exports
  • I think we're going to have to accept a lockdown is coming and it'll be March-style likely with people being allowed out of it when they've been vaccinated perhaps or when a sufficient number have at least.
  • Let me just say I'm not happy about it, I am delaying my move yet again and I'm still stuck here.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    HYUFD said:
    Sounds quite creative, I might even watch. Just having some random jolly festivities would be tin-eared.
  • alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Who are the winners and losers in that situation...?
    Everyone loses surely
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2020
    The media has yet to catch up with all the potential knock-on effects of these freight and travel bans, it being a Sunday night. Nothing from the Guardian and other broadsheets at all yet.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yeah, these fukwits can cope with No Deal...

    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1340752328769626112

    The DfT are in charge?

    Fuck me.

    We’re completely screwed.
    Don't worry, they'll requisition Chris Grayling at £10K a day to sort it out.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    With hind-sight I should have joined in the deer themed punning.

    But I won't be fawning to those who did take part.

    Anyway, enough of winter, roll on the spring(bok).
  • WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    Will be interesting to see exactly how he wants to screw over England.
    I imagine he will announce devomax for Holyrood and Scotland under a future Labour led government and regional assemblies for England
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Don't worry, the rest of the world are doing it for us. Finally.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yeah, these fukwits can cope with No Deal...

    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1340752328769626112

    The DfT are in charge?

    Fuck me.

    We’re completely screwed.
    Don't worry, they'll requisition Chris Grayling at £10K a day to sort it out.
    Or promote Williamson !!!!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,597
    edited December 2020

    Andy_JS said:

    I hope this isn‘t a case of the UK being more honest than other countries about the new strain.

    It would fit with the second wave in some parts of Europe being worse than the first.
    It seems quite likely that this (or something very similar) is elsewhere.

    If this is the reaction, though (blockade), who is going to admit it?
  • MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    With the worst infection rate in western Europe, Belgium’s government has warned that parts of the country could soon see a “tsunami of cases” with the virus spreading uncontrollably.

    Brussels and Wallonia are at the epicentre of this second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-54650791
    That's nearly two months old. Belgium has been doing better than NL recently. Don't even think about going to Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania or Luxemburg (or London) https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
  • Frankly if Keir can't get a sustained lead after this debacle I can only conclude we're doomed
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    ..whole thing is turning into an utter nightmare. And Johnson is in charge. Fuck.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    .

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.

    Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
    The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.

    But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.

    What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?

    I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
    Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
    I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
    What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
    For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1340375707852148736
    They've already said it is significant, and that there is an increase in the R value. Maybe they didn't say that earlier in the week, but they are saying it now.
    Again note the caveats. Early evidence. Potential risk.
    No, they've been quite explicit that it does show an increase in R. e.g.,

    Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific officer, did not put a number on it but agreed the new strain – now officially named VUI-202012/01 – showed a “substantial increase in transmissibility”.
    Yes and no.

    Yes are saying thats what it points to based on current results.
    No as in not categorically saying that based on fuller results.

    It’s all caveated by scientists and politicians, not yet been caveated by media.

    But when did the truth get in the way of s good story?
  • No Deal will absolutely destroy what little economy we have left, which means it will likely happen.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Don't worry, the rest of the world are doing it for us. Finally.
    There is something of an irony that (however justified the basic argument) having being saying all year that an approach taken by New Zealand, or many island nations across Asia just could not be contemplated here because of our global interconnectivity, it's actually on the verge of happening anyway.
  • HYUFD said:

    Will be interesting to see exactly how he wants to screw over England.
    I imagine he will announce devomax for Holyrood and Scotland under a future Labour led government and regional assemblies for England
    Devomax for English regions too? And will we get to choose our regions? England will continue to effectively be a directly-governed territory of the UK.
  • Scott_xP said:
    This is like No Deal, but worse, and three weeks early. Obviously if this was happening on 1st January as it should be we would be completely prepared and there would be nothing to worry about.

  • WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DougSeal said:

    Can I briefly play Devil’s Advocate for Scott? NERVTAG are most certainly not lying and they have come up with a solid paper based on the evidence available - but what the Government do with the findings therein is out of their hands. I post below a link to the minutes of their meeting on Thursday which comes up with very few definitive answers. The finding that NERVTAG have “moderate” confidence that the new variant demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility is not the “definitive proof” some on here portray it as. That conclusion is understandable as it was reached as a result of “Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.” I’m no scientist but I see the truism that a correlation does not mean causation all the time. It often does I admit.

    The decision last night, made for whatever reason, was belatedly the right one, but I don’t think a pile on on Scott over reposting that Tweet is justified.

    https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

    The scientists are not Tories. Most of the ones I know on SAGE vote Labour or Lib Dem. They are trying to help the country.

    If the scientists felt that Boris was misrepresenting the data, they would say so. They would have everything to lose if they stood by, silent, while their data was misused.

    If scientists on SAGE or on NERVTAG saw their data being misrepresented or misused for political purposes, they would be screaming to the heavens, loud and clear.

    They are not saying so.

    For this conspiracy to be true, the scientists would have to be in on it. But, there is no way scientist would do this, because they know they would be found out very quickly by others and their career and reputation would be irreparably damaged.

    Scott (who has no scientific training) retweeted an irresponsible claim by a single Belgian scientist. If Donald Trump tweeted some conspiracy theory rubbish, you would call him out.

    We're calling Scott out. He is encouraging the dispersal of fake news. He is propagating conspiracy theories. He is damaging the reputation of Government scientists --- who are not the same as the Government.
  • WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
    No I asked it months ago.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    This is like No Deal, but worse, and three weeks early. Obviously if this was happening on 1st January as it should be we would be completely prepared and there would be nothing to worry about.

    There is absolutely *no way* the government could conclude a no deal and not also prompt a huge national crisis under these circumstances. The combined impact of these measures and any thin Brexit deal on our supplies, freight and transport could already be very major.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    At least I've learned what the French for "mutant virus" is.
  • alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    Indeed.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.

    That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
    Nervtag made it up?
    Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
    No it’s not. Because they made nothing up. Our scientists and our government carefully and thoroughly caveated the message, it was posters here and the media in general especially the print media who ignored all the caveats and talked up rampant mutant covid.

    If Boris comes out and says it’s turned out not as bad, but we told you it might not be bad once the full results are in, then he is absolutely right, he did caveat it. Go back and have a look.
    If Johnson wanted to do that, he'd have used the high-end estimate for the increase in R, not the low-end.
    Unless of course the low end estimate is not as bad as... the low end estimate.
  • Unlike most of Scotland.
  • The border was going to slow to a stop in 10 days. This French announcement just pulls that forward. I'm sure our economy can manage just fine with the shutdown of our main supply route, just as the no deal enthusiasts wanted
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027

    Scott_xP said:
    This is like No Deal, but worse, and three weeks early. Obviously if this was happening on 1st January as it should be we would be completely prepared and there would be nothing to worry about.

    There is absolutely *no way* the government could conclude a no deal and not also prompt a huge national crisis under these circumstances. The combined impact of these measures and any thin Brexit deal on the freight and transport could already be very major.
    The government seem totally blind to those risks. As are the hardcore brexiters. I mean - look at Farage latest tweet. He says this is a prime opportunity for hard brexit.

    We've had our politics led by these idiots for far too long.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    We're not trying to keep anything out.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    Hardly given that the epicentre seems to have been a prison preparing people for release.
  • alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Don't worry, the rest of the world are doing it for us. Finally.
    There is something of an irony that (however justified the basic argument) having being saying all year that an approach taken by New Zealand, or many island nations across Asia just could not be contemplated here because of our global interconnectivity, it's actually on the verge of happening anyway.
    Perhaps Grant Shapps can explain to the world how you need to be 'open for business'.
  • Are we about to go all @eadric ?

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    No - it started in North/East Kent - Swale/Medway/Thanet, and spread down from there.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    The border was going to slow to a stop in 10 days. This French announcement just pulls that forward. I'm sure our economy can manage just fine with the shutdown of our main supply route, just as the no deal enthusiasts wanted

    Maybe it's a brilliant move. How quickly can the economy completely implode such that there's time before 1st January to rapidly arrange an extension?
  • I think the French are playing games with haulage. Very probably to add pressure to finalising the Brexit deal.

    Drivers and couriers in sealed gaps pose virtually zero transmission risk when moving around. It's at the warehouses and depots where the challenge is and that could be entirely by masked and PPE'D domestic staff either side of the channel.

    It effectively amounts to a blockade. Far worse than a WTO Brexit.

    It's probably challengeable under law as well.

    As I have been pointing out, our imposition of customs checks IS a blockade. It will create such a massive backlog that nothing will be able to move. This was happening in 10 days anyway
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    Yes, definitely. We'll need quite a lot of honest international cooperation to find the source of the mutation beyond Kent though and right now that looks in short supply. I wouldn't be surprised if it was Belgium, they had a terrible second wave followed shortly by France and now the UK, Netherlands and Denmark. Once again, the UK getting shafted by being honest.
  • Scott_xP said:
    This is like No Deal, but worse, and three weeks early. Obviously if this was happening on 1st January as it should be we would be completely prepared and there would be nothing to worry about.

    There is absolutely *no way* the government could conclude a no deal and not also prompt a huge national crisis under these circumstances. The combined impact of these measures and any thin Brexit deal on our supplies, freight and transport could already be very major.
    It seems we are entering easily the worst crisis since the War now. Wish I had any confidence in our leadership team.
  • DougSeal said:

    Can I briefly play Devil’s Advocate for Scott? NERVTAG are most certainly not lying and they have come up with a solid paper based on the evidence available - but what the Government do with the findings therein is out of their hands. I post below a link to the minutes of their meeting on Thursday which comes up with very few definitive answers. The finding that NERVTAG have “moderate” confidence that the new variant demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility is not the “definitive proof” some on here portray it as. That conclusion is understandable as it was reached as a result of “Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.” I’m no scientist but I see the truism that a correlation does not mean causation all the time. It often does I admit.

    The decision last night, made for whatever reason, was belatedly the right one, but I don’t think a pile on on Scott over reposting that Tweet is justified.

    https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

    The scientists are not Tories. Most of the ones I know on SAGE vote Labour or Lib Dem. They are trying to help the country.

    If the scientists felt that Boris was misrepresenting the data, they would say so. They would have everything to lose if they stood by, silent, while their data was misused.

    If scientists on SAGE or on NERVTAG saw their data being misrepresented or misused for political purposes, they would be screaming to the heavens, loud and clear.

    They are not saying so.

    For this conspiracy to be true, the scientists would have to be in on it. But, there is no way scientist would do this, because they know they would be found out very quickly by others and their career and reputation would be irreparably damaged.

    Scott (who has no scientific training) retweeted an irresponsible claim by a single Belgian scientist. If Donald Trump tweeted some conspiracy theory rubbish, you would call him out.

    We're calling Scott out. He is encouraging the dispersal of fake news. He is propagating conspiracy theories. He is damaging the reputation of Government scientists --- who are not the same as the Government.
    This needed saying
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    No-one seems to have told Heathrow yet.

  • Are we about to go all @eadric ?

    Where is the man himself ? It seems a night almost made for some of his posts.
  • Are we about to go all @eadric ?

    Where is the man himself ? It seems a night almost made for some of his posts.
    Driving to Penarth dressed as a nun?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

    If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

    Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
    I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
    Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
    I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
    On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.

    We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind.
    I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
    I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.

    So I suggest the following wording:

    ‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’

    If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.

    Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost :smile: )
    Done! Good luck.
    Don't mean to stick my nose in, but who wins if they close post-16 only? i.e. colleges and SF colleges (and maybe school sixth forms). Are colleges a "defined tier"? If so, needs to read 'schools or colleges in any defined tier..."

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.

    If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.

    Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though.
    I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb.
    Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
    I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
    On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.

    We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind.
    I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
    I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.

    So I suggest the following wording:

    ‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’

    If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.

    Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost :smile: )
    Done! Good luck.
    Don't mean to stick my nose in, but who wins if they close post-16 only? i.e. colleges and SF colleges (and maybe school sixth forms). Are colleges a "defined tier"? If so, needs to read 'schools or colleges in any defined tier..."
    If it's just 16+ erm... er... dunno. I'd guess should count as they are schools... but yeah not at all easy this defining bets business. I reckon if ambiguous we both pay to OGH!
  • The border was going to slow to a stop in 10 days. This French announcement just pulls that forward. I'm sure our economy can manage just fine with the shutdown of our main supply route, just as the no deal enthusiasts wanted

    But this is not a one way issue.

    French, Italian, Spanish and others freight will be stuck in France and Irish transport to France through Holyhead will be stopped in Ireland
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    eek said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    Hardly given that the epicentre seems to have been a prison preparing people for release.
    Not necessarily, the transmission chain will need to be traced back from there but it means Belgian, French and Dutch scientists sharing their data.

    This isn't about pointing fingers anyway, it could have happened anywhere. My worry is that if it related to the horrific Belgian second wave then it means Belgium either need better surveillance of viral genomes or they've covered something up.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    20th December, we are now facing what amounts to a wartime blockade, and there are still eleven days of the year left to go.

    Putin will probably nuke us on New Year's Eve, so enjoy the last week and a half of your lives folks.

    Oh, and just on the off-chance that there isn't a thermonuclear holocaust, I have got husband to order an emergency delivery of bog roll and pasta & sauce online tonight, before the rest of the country gets the same ideas. I will be forced to go to work in the morning, and am not at all confident now of getting hold of any of my remaining Christmas stuff when I get out and over to the supermarket at 4:15pm. So it looks like the turkey joint is going to be served with microwave basmati rice instead of roast potatoes. Though at least the existing panic box, pantry contents and the additional delivery should mean that we don't have to resort to smearing mayonnaise on the Christmas cards until about the third week of January.

    Never think that things can't get any worse. They always, ALWAYS do.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    All countries politicians wanted as normal as possible Christmas. But their lockdowns varied widely in timings and type, even in UK Wales were coming out of lockdown as England entered one. But the attempt to do it, the shopping, the moving around, was the wrong call in the covid winter.

    When UK government placed the blame for their U turn on the mutant virus spreading from the south east across the Nation, should they have anticipated and planned for the rest of the worlds reaction in sealing us off as pariah state?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
    No I asked it months ago.
    Plenty from here justified their foreign holidays during the summer. As I said lockdown is sensible for other people that can't be trusted but its alright for me to bend rules because I will be sensible is the common attitude,

    Its why I treat polls saying 80% or whatever support lockdown with contempt. You would get similar polls for all that test positive to isolate however as we saw when push came to shove only 20% actually did.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    gealbhan said:

    All countries politicians wanted as normal as possible Christmas. But their lockdowns varied widely in timings and type, even in UK Wales were coming out of lockdown as England entered one. But the attempt to do it, the shopping, the moving around, was the wrong call in the covid winter.

    When UK government placed the blame for their U turn on the mutant virus spreading from the south east across the Nation, should they have anticipated and planned for the rest of the worlds reaction in sealing us off as pariah state?

    Or, it is actually a real new strain and the reactions are justified?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Flight bans are increasing in scope.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199

    I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
    I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
    Yes, I think governments will be left with no choice for PR reasons but it's already too late. This mutant strain is already everywhere, that London was one of the original seed locations from Kent means the mutant strain will have global reach. There are flights out of London to pretty much everywhere in the world, even now.
    Isn't the fact that Kent was the epicentre in the UK quite strong circumstantial evidence that it has come from abroad?
    No. It began on Sheppey, probably in the prisons there, which are in about as isolated a part of Kent, indeed SE England, you can get. Three weeks ago some of us in Dover and Ashford were moaning about being in Tier 3 as a result of what happened on Sheppey given our then rates were so low.
  • Let me explain a few things for the politically hard of thinking. The average transit time at the border is currently 2 minutes. The border crossing is able to cope with the huge number of vehicles crossing because they are unimpeded.

    The average crossing time at external EU borders is 45 minutes. At border points with a fraction of our traffic the wait can be 20 hours. At Dover - Calais it won't be that short. At least that is what the logistics trade is saying - what would they know?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Are we about to go all @eadric ?

    Where is the man himself ? It seems a night almost made for some of his posts.
    Driving to Penarth dressed as a nun?
    Drakeford will arrest him. He can't cross. We're locked down.

    We will see eadric, and his entourage of beautiful young Corbynite wives, taken at the border.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    If i start growing the cress now, how soon will it turn into viable foodstuff?
  • Pagan2 said:

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
    No I asked it months ago.
    Plenty from here justified their foreign holidays during the summer. As I said lockdown is sensible for other people that can't be trusted but its alright for me to bend rules because I will be sensible is the common attitude,

    Its why I treat polls saying 80% or whatever support lockdown with contempt. You would get similar polls for all that test positive to isolate however as we saw when push came to shove only 20% actually did.
    I didn't go anywhere, not everyone did.
  • 20th December, we are now facing what amounts to a wartime blockade, and there are still eleven days of the year left to go.

    Putin will probably nuke us on New Year's Eve, so enjoy the last week and a half of your lives folks.

    Oh, and just on the off-chance that there isn't a thermonuclear holocaust, I have got husband to order an emergency delivery of bog roll and pasta & sauce online tonight, before the rest of the country gets the same ideas. I will be forced to go to work in the morning, and am not at all confident now of getting hold of any of my remaining Christmas stuff when I get out and over to the supermarket at 4:15pm. So it looks like the turkey joint is going to be served with microwave basmati rice instead of roast potatoes. Though at least the existing panic box, pantry contents and the additional delivery should mean that we don't have to resort to smearing mayonnaise on the Christmas cards until about the third week of January.

    Never think that things can't get any worse. They always, ALWAYS do.

    Wasn't there a tv program where they got various government and military types to game play a Russian invasion of the Baltics which ended up with Putin nuking the UK ?
  • So no Brexit deal this year then?
  • I'm confused. Why has France banned freight for only 48 hours? Is this purely to give time to assess the Super-COVID situation?

    Yes. An *initial* 48 hours. After which point as we were effectively closing the border as an operational crossing 8 days after that they may as well just make it indefinite.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    alex_ said:

    If i start growing the cress now, how soon will it turn into viable foodstuff?

    Germination takes place within a couple of days (24 hours, if you're lucky) and the cress is ready to harvest when it's around 1½ to 2 inches high (which will be, depending on the type you're growing, five to seven days later). Snip the stalks off at the base to use as a garnish, in a salad, or in sandwiches.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Anyway, on a lighter note, I'm not watching it (haven't for years) but is anyone watching SPOTY who can tell us how the BBC are managing the Tyson Fury nomination? Given that he told them in no uncertain terms he had no interest in it, and, inexplicably, they refused to then take him off the shortlist?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Are we about to go all @eadric ?

    Where is the man himself ? It seems a night almost made for some of his posts.
    I can't tell if that is a good or bad thing. Good because things haven't reached his panic threshold. Or bad because things are so awful he's not even making time to stir things up on here.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Pagan2 said:

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
    No I asked it months ago.
    Plenty from here justified their foreign holidays during the summer. As I said lockdown is sensible for other people that can't be trusted but its alright for me to bend rules because I will be sensible is the common attitude,

    Its why I treat polls saying 80% or whatever support lockdown with contempt. You would get similar polls for all that test positive to isolate however as we saw when push came to shove only 20% actually did.
    I didn't go anywhere, not everyone did.
    I wasn't pointing at you, I was more pointing out that on here people believe they are intelligent and not lacking in common sense yet still we had plenty not using intelligence and common sense and going on foreign holidays because for some magical hand wavey bollocks they wouldnt catch the pox. Plenty on here have already booked their march ski holidays
  • Martial law by New Year?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2020

    So no Brexit deal this year then?

    Which means that without extension we are heading, truly, for a multi-faceted disaster.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    WHY ARE WE NOT CLOSING OUR BORDERS. WHY.

    Its taken you nine months to ask that.

    And the answer is that the UK establishment is filled by globalist sociopaths and foreign holiday obsessives.
    No I asked it months ago.
    Plenty from here justified their foreign holidays during the summer. As I said lockdown is sensible for other people that can't be trusted but its alright for me to bend rules because I will be sensible is the common attitude,

    Its why I treat polls saying 80% or whatever support lockdown with contempt. You would get similar polls for all that test positive to isolate however as we saw when push came to shove only 20% actually did.
    I didn't go anywhere, not everyone did.
    I wasn't pointing at you, I was more pointing out that on here people believe they are intelligent and not lacking in common sense yet still we had plenty not using intelligence and common sense and going on foreign holidays because for some magical hand wavey bollocks they wouldnt catch the pox. Plenty on here have already booked their march ski holidays
    Apologies, I didn't mean to make it seem like I was having a go at you.

    Anyone who went on holidays abroad this year is a twat quite frankly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder what they will say if agreement is reached tomorrow? If the UK parliament can be recalled, so can they.
  • Scott_xP said:
    No Deal it is then.

    Unless Johnson extends the transition.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    20th December, we are now facing what amounts to a wartime blockade, and there are still eleven days of the year left to go.

    Putin will probably nuke us on New Year's Eve, so enjoy the last week and a half of your lives folks.

    Oh, and just on the off-chance that there isn't a thermonuclear holocaust, I have got husband to order an emergency delivery of bog roll and pasta & sauce online tonight, before the rest of the country gets the same ideas. I will be forced to go to work in the morning, and am not at all confident now of getting hold of any of my remaining Christmas stuff when I get out and over to the supermarket at 4:15pm. So it looks like the turkey joint is going to be served with microwave basmati rice instead of roast potatoes. Though at least the existing panic box, pantry contents and the additional delivery should mean that we don't have to resort to smearing mayonnaise on the Christmas cards until about the third week of January.

    Never think that things can't get any worse. They always, ALWAYS do.

    #Fah lah lah lah lah la la la laaaaahhhh#
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Definitely a lot of overcompensation and finger pointing from the Netherlands where it's very obvious that the same mutation is present and causing as serious an outbreak. I'm guessing they think if they point the finger at the UK the rest of Europe will ignore them. It might just work, but it will be a disaster because it gives the mutant strain multiple opportunities to spread across the whole continent and then everyone is fucked.

    The UK has at least got a very strong vaccine portfolio and could see the back of this by the middle of April. Not sure how European countries will handle this given the weak vaccine portfolio.

    Instead of pointing fingers they need to shut down all borders in Europe for air, road and sea travel and start investing in vaccine production.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    COBRA meeting tomorrow.
  • So no Brexit deal this year then?

    Which means that without extension we are heading, truly, for a multi-pronged disaster.
    An oven ready one.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2020
    tlg86 said:

    COBRA meeting tomorrow.

    A day too late.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    Cannabis is easy enough to grow.

    The tweet doesn't seem to match up either as according to this the uk is a major grower and exporter of medicinal cannabis
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44197038
  • For me personally, I'm not too worried about a temporary fresh food shortage. I usually cook with fresh ingredients, but I could quite well survive on and enjoy canned, dried and frozen foods, or locally sourced seasonal food. I'd prefer there not to be an interruption to our supply, but I think more because I couldn't bear the remainiac smugly satisfied pointing at the problem than the problem itself.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    tlg86 said:

    COBRA meeting tomorrow.

    I just find it astonishing nobody appears to have foreseen the possibility of this happening. Especially as it has been a fundamental risk throughout of Brexit that we would have far less legal protection viz potential closure of the border.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    All countries politicians wanted as normal as possible Christmas. But their lockdowns varied widely in timings and type, even in UK Wales were coming out of lockdown as England entered one. But the attempt to do it, the shopping, the moving around, was the wrong call in the covid winter.

    When UK government placed the blame for their U turn on the mutant virus spreading from the south east across the Nation, should they have anticipated and planned for the rest of the worlds reaction in sealing us off as pariah state?

    Or, it is actually a real new strain and the reactions are justified?
    The countries putting a ban on us are caveating it with “our scientists aren’t as sure as the British government are that the new strain is as bad as that, but we can’t take the chance... blockade!”

    My point is, that’s also what the British scientists and politicians said. Identically. For internal consumption. It was blown up into this crisis by over the top reporting of the British media.

    new strain is virulent or not, it doesn’t matter to the question, should the UK government have anticipated the international reaction of governments also stamped down sooner on the over blown media reporting of their announcement?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Er - but i thought there had been no testing of the vaccine on school age children? How could it possibly pass safety authorisation?
This discussion has been closed.