This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
Fuckwit. No they have control over their borders. And quite right to. They are doing what is best for their citizens. I hope we would do the same in similar circumstances. Though I am not so sure with the current lot in power.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
I read it as additive to the base R rate i.e. ~3-4 i.e. the rate of reproduction with no restrictions in place.
This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
It is, however, highly likely that the new Evil Supercovid is already prevalent across Europe - they just haven’t sequenced it yet. This would account for the wave 2 struggles of previously successful continental countries. Denmark, Germany, etc
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
The Remainiacs on a VPN'd twitter/farcebook "window" I occasionally look at* are screaming that this means that the proper punishment of the UK for Brexit will now be blamed on COVID.
It's only a matter of time before they start claiming that Boris and Cummings cooked up the new variant in a secret lab under the Dean Street Pizza Express (the one where they imprison the fake COVID victims).
*It remind me of the lock boxes for AI viruses in A Fire Upon the Deep.
It is quite incredible that a blue check mark journalist from a national newspaper is tweeting this bollocks. Not only is it verifiable bollocks, even if you thought Boris had nobbled the scientists, how does he explain his massive ramp up in cases? This isn't like the 45 mins WMD claims, where nobody could actually see any data if this was true or not.....or perhaps he thinks Boris is also faking the data case stats, all the hospitals rammed with patients etc....quite a conspiracy.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
You voted for this nonsense apparently, so why should you worry about it?
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.
Suddenly lots of my London mates have contacts with positive tests. They've been working from home but mixing outside.
HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.
Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.
Fuckwit. No they have control over their borders. And quite right to. They are doing what is best for their citizens. I hope we would do the same in similar circumstances. Though I am not so sure with the current lot in power.
We cut off travel from Denmark when they had Mink COVID. Everyone is using the same emergency exceptional use of border suspension.
The French did the same following the Bataclan and Stad de France attacks. And quite right too. I have nothing but sympathy for the other EU countries over this - although as noted below I fear it is too late.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.
Suddenly lots of my London mates have contacts with positive tests. They've been working from home but mixing outside.
HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.
Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.
You see it time and time again, people are convinced outside is 100% safe. They whip off the mask, they stand chatting in groups, etc.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
You voted for this nonsense apparently, so why should you worry about it?
If you consider that is a reasonable response to claims that we might have vaccine supplies cut off - no matter how idiotic they are - then you really have lost all sense of perspective. Shame on you.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
You voted for this nonsense apparently, so why should you worry about it?
I've liked this website for a long time and I try to read most of the comments. I respect the opinions of many of the people I disagree with about Brexit, but they strain my respect when they blindly pump the EU side over their own country, whatever the issue, because of Brexit. This should be a very easy (even if hyperbolic!) hypothetical for the EU fans. If the EU blocks our vaccine delivery, would you blame them or Brexit(ers)?
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
Spot on.
Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.
If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
I think 99% of us accept Brexit is happening. I do.
But that doesn't mean we pretend it's a good idea, just as you don't pretend the opposition party you don't support is a good idea (if it applies to you).
This. Absolutely this. More important even than a deal with the EU. The UK government needs seriously to mend fences with EU member states. It has no allies in Europe.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
You voted for this nonsense apparently, so why should you worry about it?
If you consider that is a reasonable response to claims that we might have vaccine supplies cut off - no matter how idiotic they are - then you really have lost all sense of perspective. Shame on you.
Look. This guy voted, I presume, for Brexit because of the perceived benefit of getting away from the EU. Literally, why should he care what they do? Instead of which he sets up these straw man arguments to make a cheap point about those that didn't vote the way he did.
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
Spot on.
Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.
If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.
Surely then if costs for using dover go up because of queues that will mean freight traffic will redistribute to use other ports, a loss for dover but a gain for those other underused ports
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
Some people are totally driven mad by Brexit, they totally lose any ration thought or looking at the facts. He actually underspun it....he said adds about 0.4 to R rate. Eggheads say that minimum of their estimated range.
Or is he claiming that Boris is now getting the independent scientists to do a Bad Al and write dodgy dossier? That's proper tin foil hat stuff.
The Remainiacs on a VPN'd twitter/farcebook "window" I occasionally look at* are screaming that this means that the proper punishment of the UK for Brexit will now be blamed on COVID.
It's only a matter of time before they start claiming that Boris and Cummings cooked up the new variant in a secret lab under the Dean Street Pizza Express (the one where they imprison the fake COVID victims).
*It remind me of the lock boxes for AI viruses in A Fire Upon the Deep.
It is quite incredible that a blue check mark journalist from a national newspaper is tweeting this bollocks. Not only is it verifiable bollocks, even if you thought Boris had nobbled the scientists, how does he explain his massive ramp up in cases? This isn't like the 45 mins WMD claims, where nobody could actually see any data if this was true or not.....or perhaps he thinks Boris is also faking the data case stats, all the hospitals rammed with patients etc....quite a conspiracy.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but when this virus (even the “non mutant version”) gets out of control it ramps up VERY quickly. We saw that in March. We’ve been seeing it across Europe in the second wave. What people are finding it difficult to believe is that Johnson only became aware of this on Friday. It is possible for this strain to be both a serious issue, AND for the Govt have jumped on it as a convenient excuse to do a screeching handbrake turn on something which Johnson declared would be “inhuman” only on Wednesday.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
NY Governor Cuomo calling for flights from UK to US to be suspended.
Indeed. The idea that the EU is using the mutoid Supercovid to punish us/forewarn us about the idiocies of Hard Brexit is largely nonsense.
Iran has also suspended flights to/from UK.
More likely, every global government has looked at the UK data supplied to WHO, and got the squits, as they realise this strain is potentially so virulent it cannot be locked down. It will always win. It is the Alien in Alien. Except there is no escape podule. No Sigourney Weaver in white knickers.
As said below, their efforts to save the cat are probably fruitless anyway. If this strain is that bad, it will find a way into every country, if it hasn’t already in most of Western Europe.
On a scary day, this is the scariest paragraph of news. From the Times
On the transmissibility of the mutant virus:
‘If that is the case [that the new mutant increases R by 0.4-0.9] then we can lock down harder, we can cancel Christmas, we can even close schools, but it will only slow our opponent’s advance.’
Yep. The maths are horrible if that is the genuine r value adjustment.
As Gaussian pointed out earlier today, though, the adjustment simply can't be additive. By any reasonable mechanism it must be multiplicative. And bear in mind that we never did have a full lockdown in this country. It might be very painful, but there are still options.
(A more subtle question is how the mutation effects the *distribution* of the number of infected per infection: does it make the long tail even heavier, or does it make it more likely that at least one or two consequent infections happen? We'll have to wait a long time to get good answers on this.)
I think we need to wait a while to see how it goes. All the data is very noisy at the moment, and conclusions are premature. I do think that planning for school closures in January, and certainly University, would be prudent.
--AS
And we don’t yet know ‘how’ it is more infectious. For example it might be a lot more infectious indoors, but equally thwarted by air conditions outdoors. Or it might be better at being transmitted via surfaces.
Suddenly lots of my London mates have contacts with positive tests. They've been working from home but mixing outside.
HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.
Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.
Thanks.
I was a bit baffled about this 'takeaway drinks from pubs' as every pub I see has been shut since at least October.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
I can't argue with any of that. Now might be the perfect opportunity for us to make a serious state aided (WeverTF the EU say about state aid) development of other ports.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
Yeah I think the 70% figure is absolutely terrifying. I don't see how we can have a semblance of any kind of economic recovery with that and no one is asking the government what they intend to do about speeding up the vaccine roll out.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
NY Governor Cuomo calling for flights from UK to US to be suspended.
Indeed. The idea that the EU is using the mutoid Supercovid to punish us/forewarn us about the idiocies of Hard Brexit is largely nonsense.
Iran has also suspended flights to/from UK.
More likely, every global government has looked at the UK data supplied to WHO, and got the squits, as they realise this strain is potentially so virulent it cannot be locked down. It will always win. It is the Alien in Alien. Except there is no escape podule. No Sigourney Weaver in white knickers.
As said below, their efforts to save the cat are probably fruitless anyway. If this strain is that bad, it will find a way into every country, if it hasn’t already in most of Western Europe.
Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
Yeah I think the 70% figure is absolutely terrifying. I don't see how we can have a semblance of any kind of economic recovery with that and no one is asking the government what they intend to do about speeding up the vaccine roll out.
The media are obsessed with the Christmas issue rather than the bigger picture.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
The specific number is 70% higher. It's horrific.
Yes. If that number is right, there is no lockdown which beats that. Apart from some kind of permanent Gulag.
We have to hope the vaccines arrive quick and fast and in bulk.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
The specific number is 70% higher. It's horrific.
Yes. If that number is right, there is no lockdown which beats that. Apart from some kind of permanent Gulag.
We have to hope the vaccines arrive quick and fast and in bulk.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
Indeed. And in that example if R is 0.8 it goes to 0.96 - which is concerning but not catastrophic. But it does mean if that happened it'd be hard to reduce numbers even with a lockdown but they would be contained.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It is hard to disagree.
Labour's performance in Wales has been underwhelming. There has been little to suggest however, the alternative, which would more than likely be Welsh Conservatives, would be anything other than worse. OK, so I am defending a 2 out of 10 against a 1 out of 10, but that still suggests the alternative is half as good/bad..
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:
The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....
According to the FT, the UK and Denmark have the ‘best genetic sequencing’ in the world. I have no idea if or why this is true. But it is intriguing that these are the two countries to react like scalded cats to potential mutations. In Denmark they slaughtered the mink. In the UK we have very sensibly kept out the French, who were clearly trying to steal our world-beating mutation in wheels of Dorset Camembert
Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:
The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....
According to the FT, the UK and Denmark have the ‘best genetic sequencing’ in the world. I have no idea if or why this is true. But it is intriguing that these are the two countries to react like scalded cats to potential mutations. In Denmark they slaughtered the mink. In the UK we have very sensibly kept out the French, who were clearly trying to steal our world-beating mutation in wheels of Dorset Camembert
I thought Iceland were the world leaders in this via ReCode.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
Doesn't that graph upthread show that a full lockdown still suppresses in Tier 4? It's only ballooned since it was let off.
Started rising before the end, unfortunately.
Yes, but it was going down before then.
If it's been around since October then that doesn't make much sense.
Either way a full lockdown would still work you'd just have to do it in a tighter way to compensate.
The point was that if the new variant increase R by 0.4+, then the entire graph would have been above 1.0
Not necessarily. Since the +0.4 would only apply to the new strain cases not all cases. If 5% of cases are new strain and 95% old strain then it would be barely discernible.
As it displaces the old strain then it would be visible.
The various calculations suggest that we can bring r down to 0.8 or so nationally. With the original strain.
This seems to be true in Europe as well, if you look at the data.
With COVID,
0.99 - result less misery 1.01 - you are in the shit
If the new variant is at 62% of cases and rising, and creates an increase of R of 0.4 - then 1.0 may not be achievable *with* a lockdown.
I see. I misunderstood I thought you were saying it couldn't add 0.4 because if it did all the numbers would be higher, rather than that if it did add 0.4 then they will become higher. Sorry for the confusion.
The 0.4 should scale with lockdown restrictions shouldn't it? Ie if it's 0.4 with Tier 2 restrictions then wouldn't it be possibly more than 0.4 with lighter restrictions and less than 0.4 with a full Lockdown? I wouldn't think it would be a fixed 0.4 in all circumstances.
0.4 is incredibly unhelpful - is it 0.4 compared to the original R of around 3.2? Or is 0.4 compared to current Rs of c. 1.3-1.4?
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
According to the Nervtag it is comped to the original R.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
Yeah I think the 70% figure is absolutely terrifying. I don't see how we can have a semblance of any kind of economic recovery with that and no one is asking the government what they intend to do about speeding up the vaccine roll out.
Getting Astrazeneca approved would be a plus, and a nice good news story. I don't want a vaccine to be given to kids without knowing it's safe, but we surely now know that? If the effectiveness is known to be within a certain range, jfdi.
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.
Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.
You won. Get over it. This is what you voted for. We can’t force another country to supply us with something we don’t have. We can trade for it sure but we can’t force a supply. We can’t declare war on a NATO country (which most EU counties are) as we would automatically be at war with the whole alliance. We are also strategically outflanked by the EU to our east and west. So if something they do interrupts the supply of something they make we are just going to have to live with it. It’s life I’m afraid.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
Then we must free Wales' hand.
I am inclining towards that view, and I have been a staunch unionist my entire life
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
I can't argue with any of that. Now might be the perfect opportunity for us to make a serious state aided (WeverTF the EU say about state aid) development of other ports.
Where would the ports ship to? It's no good upgrading capacity on one side only and without any commercial demand.
NY Governor Cuomo calling for flights from UK to US to be suspended.
Indeed. The idea that the EU is using the mutoid Supercovid to punish us/forewarn us about the idiocies of Hard Brexit is largely nonsense.
Iran has also suspended flights to/from UK.
More likely, every global government has looked at the UK data supplied to WHO, and got the squits, as they realise this strain is potentially so virulent it cannot be locked down. It will always win. It is the Alien in Alien. Except there is no escape podule. No Sigourney Weaver in white knickers.
As said below, their efforts to save the cat are probably fruitless anyway. If this strain is that bad, it will find a way into every country, if it hasn’t already in most of Western Europe.
Hi Sean.
I remember once being told by a tutor that he wanted each of us to develop a writing style so personal and distinctive that he could recognize it instantly even without our names attached.
I don't know why that thought suddenly occurred to me...
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
Then we must free Wales' hand.
Lol I'm not necessarily suggesting Independence, but real financial autonomy. Although not a supporter of Independence as such, the way BJ has performed this last year makes me question my position.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
You don't live here, you don't have to listen to Paul Davies's incoherent ramblings day and night. The only positive in his favour is, at least he is not RT.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
I think the ramp up of testing skews the April and May figures. Better to use hospital admissions I think.
Ask, and ye shall receive....
Again, with 0.4+ on R, nearly the entire graph would be above 1.0
The .4 to .9 is certain? Not something that with more verification becomes .1 to .5?
Certainly media coverage ramps this up to a point that is scary, of that there is no doubt. Yet, in their scary reports are the scientists themselves saying don’t panic, don’t be fearful of this just yet. Exhibit A for my prosecution of rampers, Sky news 2300 news a few minutes ago. Lead with the “fact” scientists have said it’s more dangerous than Boris admitted, followed with a report to wring every frightening nuance out of mutating virus.
Worst case scenarios are not fact, should not be peddled as fact. Agree?
I mentioned this earlier, without any reply unless I missed it; but how has Ireland - as the centre of global pharmaceuticals by density (apparently about 100 global pharmas based there) - managed to only secure 5000 doses of covid vaccine for this year?
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
Spot on.
Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.
If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.
Surely then if costs for using dover go up because of queues that will mean freight traffic will redistribute to use other ports, a loss for dover but a gain for those other underused ports
Please explain how the reason there are queues at Dover would not affect any other south coast port.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Every person arguing on here tonight agrees more, but how much more? Enough to justify the ramping of it into serious mutant ninja chaos?
I think we are possibly running a little ahead of the known facts.
Not really, an estimate was given in the minutes of the meeting.
At the risk of adding facts to the conversation - this is R calculated from cases
Other countries will be similar.
This means that a variant that increases the effective R by 0.4 or more would mean that R would remain above 1 during a full lockdown.
I think the ramp up of testing skews the April and May figures. Better to use hospital admissions I think.
Ask, and ye shall receive....
Again, with 0.4+ on R, nearly the entire graph would be above 1.0
The .4 to .9 is certain? Not something that with more verification becomes .1 to .5?
Certainly media coverage ramps this up to a point that is scary, of that there is no doubt. Yet, in their scary reports are the scientists themselves saying don’t panic, don’t be fearful of this just yet. Exhibit A for my prosecution of rampers, Sky news 2300 news a few minutes ago. Lead with the “fact” scientists have said it’s more dangerous than Boris admitted, followed with a report to wring every frightening nuance out of mutating virus.
Worst case scenarios are not fact, should not be peddled as fact. Agree?
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.
Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.
You won. Get over it. This is what you voted for. We can’t force another country to supply us with something we don’t have. We can trade for it sure but we can’t force a supply. We can’t declare war on a NATO country (which most EU counties are) as we would automatically be at war with the whole alliance. We are also strategically outflanked by the EU to our east and west. So if something they do interrupts the supply of something they make we are just going to have to live with it. It’s life I’m afraid.
So you're defending the EU if they block our vaccine supplies.
Interesting charting of the genetic variations of the COVID virus - I don't know whether they haven't got the data, or it hasn't been published, or something else - but the UK has reported 1547 variations, the USA, 306, France 47 and Germany ("the UK strain isn't here")- 6:
The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....
According to the FT, the UK and Denmark have the ‘best genetic sequencing’ in the world. I have no idea if or why this is true. But it is intriguing that these are the two countries to react like scalded cats to potential mutations. In Denmark they slaughtered the mink. In the UK we have very sensibly kept out the French, who were clearly trying to steal our world-beating mutation in wheels of Dorset Camembert
Notably Denmark (54) have identified almost as many as China (56). There are some striking "small country' players like Singapore (36) and New Zealand (46).....Belgium meanwhile has 1...
LOL is there actually Johnson has not shelved or U-turned on. I am sure PB Tories will find a way to spin delaying the license fee criminalisation changes as a good thing
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
Spot on.
Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.
If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.
Surely then if costs for using dover go up because of queues that will mean freight traffic will redistribute to use other ports, a loss for dover but a gain for those other underused ports
Please explain how the reason there are queues at Dover would not affect any other south coast port.
Well not all ports are south coast for a start
Quote "The reported claims that outside Dover, the UK east coast can handle 3.6m ro-ro units a year, mostly unaccompanied trailer units, as well as 1.2m teu in shortsea container traffic.
This extra capacity represents around 60% of the total volume of 2018 UK-continental European trade, which was 8.15 million ro-ro and container units, of which 4.7 million passed through the Dover straits."
Yes before you say it the Port of Dover CEO made objections to the report but then you have to consider he would be rather likely to be the Mandy Rice Davies here
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
You don't live here, you don't have to listen to Paul Davies's incoherent ramblings day and night. The only positive in his favour is, at least he is not RT.
I would rather have a 100 Paul Davies' than a whinging Nat like Price, nothing wrong with RT either, he even gave me a lift in his car when I was campaigning at Aber
That won't affect me personally. In my shopping choices. As I said in the bit of my post that you thought not worth being undeleted.
Remainiac No. 1...
Disaster for Scotland
It's definitely not a good thing, though I'm not sure it's disastrous. I might have been wrong in my response to Scotty though. If those Scottish shellfish make their way down to Wiltshire I may well be changing my shopping choices and hunting them out.
Be bully bargains for sure, but just the start of bad things for Scotland. How the idiots ever allowed us to depend on Dover to ship our goods is a scandal. Not having developed our own ferry links to Scandinavia & northern Europe increasingly looks like a massive strategic error. Unlikely with our lower infection rates such routes would have been closed to Scottish hauliers.
Our reliance on Dover is insane. It's obviously the shortest and quickest crossing from the EU to the UK, but we should have much more lorry freight capacity elsewhere.
It is the price of capitalism.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
I can't argue with any of that. Now might be the perfect opportunity for us to make a serious state aided (WeverTF the EU say about state aid) development of other ports.
Where would the ports ship to? It's no good upgrading capacity on one side only and without any commercial demand.
I'm no more of an expert than Raab, but wouldn't be well served by better connections to Belgium and the Netherlands?
Are any of the antiBrexiters here antiBrexit and brave enough to say that we deserve it for leaving the EU if the EU decides to block our vaccine supplies?
Or any sensible enough to say that they'd be furious at the EU for that kind of idiocy, however they feel about Brexit?
I’ll pass on your patriotism/loyalty tests if that’s okay. No one has suggested such a thing and the Government claims it has contingency plans in place in case of disruption. Your anger at the side that lost when you are on the verge of getting a everything you wanted is sinister.
Scott has posted a tweet saying that our vaccine supply might be delayed because of this latest covid strain. The supply we need can happen with virtually zero risk of new strain transmission. If the EU or any constituent countries block our vaccine supply because of it, I'd consider that an act of war. I seriously doubt it could ever happen, but the tweet suggested it could.
You won. Get over it. This is what you voted for. We can’t force another country to supply us with something we don’t have. We can trade for it sure but we can’t force a supply. We can’t declare war on a NATO country (which most EU counties are) as we would automatically be at war with the whole alliance. We are also strategically outflanked by the EU to our east and west. So if something they do interrupts the supply of something they make we are just going to have to live with it. It’s life I’m afraid.
So you're defending the EU if they block our vaccine supplies.
Remainiac No. 2.
I’m not defending anyone. I’m detailing my opinion. If I’m wrong say so and explain why, You won. Be happy.
I mentioned this earlier, without any reply unless I missed it; but how has Ireland - as the centre of global pharmaceuticals by density (apparently about 100 global pharmas based there) - managed to only secure 5000 doses of covid vaccine for this year?
I'm off PB for 12 hours, and now we're being blockaded by the Frenchies?! And I thought yesterdays news was a bit shite.
Tomorrow it will be revealed that the white cliffs of Dover are in fact made of Dairylea...
Reminds me of wandering round a French supermarket in the 80s and being approached by an elderly couple who heard us speaking English and wondered if we'd 'found where they kept the Dairylea'.
May God forgive us, we told them Brie was very similar.
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
Then we must free Wales' hand.
Wales voted Leave just like England and has its own Senedd already, I am sick to death of whinging Nats trying to wreck our country, it is time Boris slapped them down with an iron fist!!
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Drakeford's all right -- he has a dusty, woebegone, academic charm about him & his spoken Welsh is truly excellent.
The reason why Drakeford seems to get a lot of criticism on this blog is because --- this blog teems with English Labour Party supporters busy telling us that all would be better under a Labour Govt, and that doesn't seem to accord with the reality in Wales.
COVID is an example. Johnson messed up. But, then so did Drakeford.
I have some sympathy with them both -- these are gruesome times.
Both are damned if they do and damned if they don't. However, the results speak for themselves.
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
The last sentence is true. SKS is not Drakeford, and extrapolation is not entirely fair.
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
It cannot prosper, or be judged correctly, with one hand tied behind it's back by Westminster. Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
Then we must free Wales' hand.
Wales voted Leave just like England, I am sick to death of whinging Nats trying to wreck our country, it is time Boris slapped them down with an iron fist!!
If someone had told you a year ago that we would be where we are now you would not have believed them, but if they had proven it you would have panicked. The economy wrecked and getting worse, a mutant killer virus loose, Brexit still unsigned. But instead today we just shrug. Strange days.
I do not think many of us just shrug
This is by far the worst crisis since the war with threat to life, health and the economy
The way out will be long and complex and will test all politicians for years to come
I am genuinely upset and want to see a deal with the EU and I would like Boris to invite a GONU to include Starmer and Sturgeon
We are far too divided and we need to come together across the political divide
Maybe hope over expectation but there is nothing wrong in hope
Say something supportive of Drakeford.
Now you are testing me as he is not a Sturgeon or Starmer and his time as First Minister of Wales has been a disaster
Now his predecessor Carwyn Jones would have been very good
Your calls for unity didn’t last long.
I want the best for the job to be honest
Paul Davies?
I am not impressed to be honest
Good, he makes Drakeford look like Albert Einstein!
You don't live here, you don't have to listen to Paul Davies's incoherent ramblings day and night. The only positive in his favour is, at least he is not RT.
Comments
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1340784599153172486
--AS
Only a change of government is going to change the weather with respect to europe.
I am impressed by Price however.
https://twitter.com/highfivedave/status/1340791716966707200?s=20
HOWEVER 'mixing outside' seems to mean something different in London. It means getting sloshed in outside bars, balconies, hours in parks etc.
Meanwhile us country bumpkins haven't had the same opportunities.
With such gloom around today. I thought i would leave with this which made me laugh
https://twitter.com/LfcShaunjudge/status/1340624003841613825
I don't believe one can extrapolate a Westminster Labour Government's potential performance from Mark Drakeford either
And still some people think everything is dreadful currently in this country.
Spare capacity for emergencies is less efficient. Over the short term lower efficiency agents get out competed and destroyed by higher efficiency companies.
By its very nature capitalism generates fragile structures.
I'm not at all worried, just interested.
Imagine you are running a business, it takes one day and costs £100 to go via Dover, or two days and £200 to go via Portsmouth.
If you use Portsmouth, then your competitors who use Dover will eat your lunch. They'll have lower prices and sell more.
But that doesn't mean we pretend it's a good idea, just as you don't pretend the opposition party you don't support is a good idea (if it applies to you).
Too fucking late for that though, because of the Tory little Englander obsessions.
Jesus Hampshire is terrible (where I'm originally from)
However, if the Labour Party wants to demonstrate it can run things well, then it has a golden opportunity to show us by running Wales well.
Unhappily, I agree with YDoethur's assessment the other day.
YDoethur wrote: "Wales suffers from systemic problems in public services, rampant corruption & cronyism and a fragile, unstable economy."
It is hard not to blame Labour for some of that, given a generation has passed and Labour have been continuously in power in Cardiff. And for over ten years of that time, Labour were also in power in Westminster.
To be clear, I want to see Wales prosper. I'd vote for any party that convinced me they could make Wales prosper.
Because if something is more infectious, then one needs to use multiplication. Let's say something is 20% more infectious.
In which case if R is currently 1, it goes to 1.2. And if R is 3, it goes to 3.6.
Lol. I wonder why they didn't send it by, er... rail?
Iran has also suspended flights to/from UK.
More likely, every global government has looked at the UK data supplied to WHO, and got the squits, as they realise this strain is potentially so virulent it cannot be locked down. It will always win. It is the Alien in Alien. Except there is no escape podule. No Sigourney Weaver in white knickers.
As said below, their efforts to save the cat are probably fruitless anyway. If this strain is that bad, it will find a way into every country, if it hasn’t already in most of Western Europe.
I was a bit baffled about this 'takeaway drinks from pubs' as every pub I see has been shut since at least October.
It becomes clearer now.
But 0.4 (actually 0.39) is the low end of the range, the top end is a underpants wettingly high 0.93
Whatever party were in power would have the same problem.
They're pretty good.
This one is 'Early Modern England':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3uBi2TZdUY&list=PL18B9F132DFD967A3
Does make me wonder about the value for money UK universities provide.
https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?p=grid&r=country
The UK has reported 86% of the variants found in Europe....
We have to hope the vaccines arrive quick and fast and in bulk.
IF they work against Ultracovid....
Davies however has increased the Tory vote by 6% on 2016 in the latest Senedd poll
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/11/03/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-7/
Labour's performance in Wales has been underwhelming. There has been little to suggest however, the alternative, which would more than likely be Welsh Conservatives, would be anything other than worse. OK, so I am defending a 2 out of 10 against a 1 out of 10, but that still suggests the alternative is half as good/bad..
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1340801296312483844?s=19
I don't know why that thought suddenly occurred to me...
I'm not necessarily suggesting Independence, but real financial autonomy. Although not a supporter of Independence as such, the way BJ has performed this last year makes me question my position.
Certainly media coverage ramps this up to a point that is scary, of that there is no doubt. Yet, in their scary reports are the scientists themselves saying don’t panic, don’t be fearful of this just yet. Exhibit A for my prosecution of rampers, Sky news 2300 news a few minutes ago. Lead with the “fact” scientists have said it’s more dangerous than Boris admitted, followed with a report to wring every frightening nuance out of mutating virus.
Worst case scenarios are not fact, should not be peddled as fact. Agree?
Remainiac No. 2.
Tomorrow WW3 breaks out and Tuesday is Asteriod Day.
Just sayin.
Quote "The reported claims that outside Dover, the UK east coast can handle 3.6m ro-ro units a year, mostly unaccompanied trailer units, as well as 1.2m teu in shortsea container traffic.
This extra capacity represents around 60% of the total volume of 2018 UK-continental European trade, which was 8.15 million ro-ro and container units, of which 4.7 million passed through the Dover straits."
Source
https://theloadstar.com/other-uk-ports-could-relieve-pressure-on-the-channel-but-dover-can-handle-it/
Yes before you say it the Port of Dover CEO made objections to the report but then you have to consider he would be rather likely to be the Mandy Rice Davies here
May God forgive us, we told them Brie was very similar.