ABC News - The Republican Party is dead. The party of Bush and Reagan is the Whig Party. We now have the Trump Party.
Other way round imo. Trump was captured by the GOP. Trump's wall has not been built but Trump has delivered longstanding GOP aims like tax cuts for squillionaires and corporations, partisan judges, and undermining Obamacare.
The Trump we see today *seems* a long way from the NY celebrity developer, who supported Democrats and was a friend of the Clintons....
Where are you getting the results from? I was getting them from the NYT interactive but that still shows Trump over 100k ahead on that and hasn't updated in ages.
Can someone answer this? NYT and NBC are still stuck on the 84% count figure.
Clearly a significant proportion of Americans don't want to live in a democracy. They want a monarchy - peopled by reality TV stars.
Jefferson and co must be turning in their graves. I suppose you can say their experiment worked for a couple of hundred years.
The American presidency was modelled on a constitutional monarchy, but elected. It wasn't supposed to have that much power - what you have seen is the massive growth in federal power (which was an issue right from the beginning).
The only thing they wouldn't have anticipated is reality TV
You can see why Trump is doing the 'stop the counting, fraudulent vote' schtick. Clearly he knows the EV votes now dropping in could make the difference between a W and a L. I still think he will win now but clearly he knows theres still a chance he could just just lose because of these postals etc.
Clearly a significant proportion of Americans don't want to live in a democracy. They want a monarchy - peopled by reality TV stars.
Jefferson and co must be turning in their graves. I suppose you can say their experiment worked for a couple of hundred years.
The American presidency was modelled on a constitutional monarchy, but elected. It wasn't supposed to have that much power - what you have seen is the massive growth in federal power (which was an issue right from the beginning).
The only thing they wouldn't have anticipated is reality TV
Aaron Burr is worth a look. Jackson took a monarchical view of the powers of the presidency. And D. Crockett was a reality star before TV...
If Trump had handled covid only a fraction more competently, and its hard to see how he could have done worse, then he would certainly have been re-elected.
It is quite shocking how badly he handled the virus, but is on the verge of re-election.
It's a sign of what an appalling candidate Biden was. I mean how could the Dems manage to find someone even worse than Hillary?
All they had to go was put up someone youngish (mid 40s) fresh faced and hopeful and they'd have walked this.
Was that really so difficult?
Would they? I don't think Buttigieg for example would have won over many more Trump voters than Biden did to be honest, Warren or Sanders would probably have done worse than Biden did
Id guess Buttigieg would have had a different coalition of voters even if not a bigger coalition than Biden. He would do well with those valuing competence, youth, military and less well with some social and religious conservatives. Agree Warren, Sanders or Harris would have done worse.
Wisconsin if it happens, is like the 2016 Sunderland in reverse
I wonder what will be their equivalent of the David Mellor and Sir James Goldsmith moment, he that was more important to the entire Brexit movement than Alan Sked, in 1997's Putney.
Where are you getting the results from? I was getting them from the NYT interactive but that still shows Trump over 100k ahead on that and hasn't updated in ages.
Decision Desk HQ on Twitter reporting much more rapidly on tallies than the networks.
Despite still massively preferring one side over the other, I can at least still enjoy races like this as the distance means my investment is lower. So thankfully the entertainment whoever wins still exists, even if the outcome is not a good one from my perspective.
You can see why Trump is doing the 'stop the counting, fraudulent vote' schtick. Clearly he knows the EV votes now dropping in could make the difference between a W and a L. I still think he will win now but clearly he knows theres still a chance he could just just lose because of these postals etc.
Regarding polling, here's my dull fence-sitting view:
1. Clearly the pollsters have had a miss, but; 2. Until we know the winners and margins of the Midwest it's not clear to me it was a massive polling miss. Lots of states Biden was favoured in were expected to be narrow, and narrow defeats when narrow wins were predicted isn't that bad.
Having said which, that 17% Biden lead in Wisconsin (by an A+ pollster)...
In the interests of objectivity Chris Christie, who is fairly unbearable to me, is still claiming Trump's team are confident. But I can't tell if this is bs.
Regarding polling, here's my dull fence-sitting view:
1. Clearly the pollsters have had a miss, but; 2. Until we know the winners and margins of the Midwest it's not clear to me it was a massive polling miss. Lots of states Biden was favoured in were expected to be narrow, and narrow defeats when narrow wins were predicted isn't that bad.
Having said which, that 17% Biden lead in Wisconsin (by an A+ pollster)...
It's teh mark of a good pollster that ABC published that outlier.
Milwaukee at 90% and the lead isn't huge... Maybe Trump will squeak it in Wisconsin?
If it's all mail in ballots, then surely the assumption is that the location is irrelevant - the balance of any new votes will favour biden, even in the most solidly Republican areas.
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
Milwaukee at 90% and the lead isn't huge... Maybe Trump will squeak it in Wisconsin?
That's Chris Christie's view but I didn't think he actually sounded confident after the Milwaukee results came in. I can't tell if it's bs. Or he doesn't really know.
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
But it's possible that ALL remaining votes will skew Biden, regardless of where they are.
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
The divide won't be the same though will it? Because most of the votes left to count are absentee.
Biden now out to 3.35 - has any candidate ever won from those odds this late in the count ?
I'm trying to work out if the gigantic gap in Penn is bridgeable by late reporting precincts and postals.
I think the numbers of votes in total are there and yes they will heavily favour Biden but I dont see the % diff being so high to bridge that gap. For me its all about GA now if Biden can somehow win it and the needle stays where it is!. So GA and WI looks his best bet to me, I think PA and MI arent flipping. PA I always thought might stay red, MI I really thought the polls were wide enough to allow enough slack to still keep Biden in but looking hard for him now.
The New York Times estimates that there are 1.9 million votes yet to be counted in PA - largely absentees. Politico breaks the absentees down as being 1.6 million from registered Democrats, 586,000 from registered Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters (the different is in uncounted on the day ballots -many in Philadelphia). This is not scientific at all but lets call the these votes, based on that, and, generously to Trump, 3 to 1 in Biden's favour. In doing so we allocate a rough total of about a futher 1.27 million to votes to Biden and 633,300 to Trump.
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
I can cash out now for an absolutely certain £1,600 haircut. Or I can stay in and win nearly £3k if Biden wins, but risk losing £3.4k if Trump wins.
I'm not sure I'll be much less happy with losing £3.4k compared to £1.6k, and even more annoyed if Biden eventually clinches it by a whisker.
What to do..?
Interesting that it's a dilemma.
I got jittery long before election day and cashed out (rarely put my money where my mouth is before), but all through election night I've felt like the odds have swung too far in Trump's favour and been tempted to bet on Biden again, including now. I've not done so because I'm too emotionally involved in the outcome.
I've got better at disconnecting my emotions and loss aversion.
I can cash out now for an absolutely certain £1,600 haircut. Or I can stay in and win nearly £3k if Biden wins, but risk losing £3.4k if Trump wins.
I'm not sure I'll be much less happy with losing £3.4k compared to £1.6k, and even more annoyed if Biden eventually clinches it by a whisker.
What to do..?
Interesting that it's a dilemma.
I got jittery long before election day and cashed out (rarely put my money where my mouth is before), but all through election night I've felt like the odds have swung too far in Trump's favour and been tempted to bet on Biden again, including now. I've not done so because I'm too emotionally involved in the outcome.
I've got better at disconnecting my emotions and loss aversion.
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
The divide won't be the same though will it? Because most of the votes left to count are absentee.
I know.
If my quick and dirty is on target then Penn is Biden's.
* assuming that the idea that absentee vote still general favour Dems is still holding?
Most American voters get the President they prefer. Trump gets to spend the rest of kis life "knowing" he won "really".
Win-win. In the end.
They should make a deal where Trump gets the White House and the plane and his supporters still consider him president, but Biden makes all the decisions.
Comments
Huge thanks to Barnesian for the Zoom chat & great to see so many people there
I think a snap poll would show support for that increase, at least in the immediate aftermath, but that'll just be frustrated reaction.
It 'might' be the moment.
God imagine trying to ensure there’s no faithless electors.
The only thing they wouldn't have anticipated is reality TV
But Green Bay (R) still not completed
If Biden takes Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin I think he only needs one of the other big 4?
Enjoy the twists and turns to come everyone
Caused a Civil War last time, unless I have missed something in the last 150 years or so.
Interesting comment:
https://www.businessinsider.com/calexit-california-versus-texas-texit-2017-2?r=US&IR=T
"One big obstacle: The US Constitution lays out procedures for how a new state may enter the union, but there are no protocols for a nation to exit."
Sounds just like the European Union for its first decades
The Split so far is
Biden 70,331
Trump 11,263
The Mail ballot split is bigely Biden
Worth noting the huge spread on votes cast/to come. This is a big unknown, surely, and a massive factor.
(directed at Trump, not you obvs)
Big ask I know mate 😉
I have Projected a Biden win by 180,000 votes.
I will not be taking any questions at this time
1. Clearly the pollsters have had a miss, but;
2. Until we know the winners and margins of the Midwest it's not clear to me it was a massive polling miss. Lots of states Biden was favoured in were expected to be narrow, and narrow defeats when narrow wins were predicted isn't that bad.
Having said which, that 17% Biden lead in Wisconsin (by an A+ pollster)...
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
100% Precincts reporting
Trump: 29,944
Biden: 6,611
2016 Result
Trump: 31,423
Clinton: 14,219
This looks really bad for Biden
However:
Mail Ballots Counted: 0
Mail Ballots to Count: 18,875
Yo Dog. Whats up?
If they split on the current state value of 78/20 then final tally is
Trump: 33,719
Biden: 20,830
That's the kind of swing that sees Biden take the state.
If you sell 50%, for example, then you win £700 with Biden or lose £2.4k with Trump.
If you sell 65% then you breakeven if Biden wins and lose £1,200 if Trump wins.
680k Biden deficit in PA with 26% left to come
Mail-ins and absentees might see him through. Haven't gone into details though..
Come to think of it I've never expereinced one of those. 1997 came closest for me. I am sure PB Tories have quite a few to choose from
(Edit: Typo alert but the 1197 election was a good'un too)
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323925446413721601?s=20
CANDIDATE VOTES PCT%
Joe Biden 1,568,585 49.48%
Donald J. Trump * 1,554,610 49.04%
Jo Jorgensen 36,941 1.17%
Brian Carroll 5,052 0.16%
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
Trump - 2,964,853 + 633,300 = 3,598,153
Biden - 2,286,865 + 1,270,000 = 3,556,865
Yes, that favours Trump, but it is not given. It is also why he's gone to court today to stop many of those ballots being counted.
It isn't. So I think Biden is value.
But bloody hell it's tight.
&
1.01!
If my quick and dirty is on target then Penn is Biden's.
* assuming that the idea that absentee vote still general favour Dems is still holding?
Most American voters get the President they prefer.
Trump gets to spend the rest of kis life "knowing" he won "really".
Win-win. In the end.
227 in the bag
6 Nevada
11 Arizona
10 Wisconsin
= 254
He is 16 short.
Michigan = 16 !!
Georgia = 16 !!
Pennsylvania = 20
Any one of these.