Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
O/T but I've just been given a clear pass, and some nice comments from the examiner, for my Dissertation Preparation Essay. I think the Buckingham military history course is one you might enjoy. It's probably the least politically correct area of academia, too.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
If NE-2 is Biden, how easy is it to get a tie? I guess Biden winning just Michigan and PA, but Trump winning Arizona, Wisconsin and the others would do it. Or replace Michigan with Georgia in the above.
Seems a bit unlikely as Wisconsin seems easier for Biden than PA or MI, and I think Biden probably has Arizona.
Any other routes? Has Nebraska 2nd been called yet?
A tie can't happen now. Biden will get one of 244, 260, 270, 286 or 306 ECVs
Of course if it ends up 306 that's the exact same margin as last time.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
Social media needs heavy regulation. Exactly how will take time and iterations to work out, but if we dont have some shared understanding of what is happening then of course we wont understand each other.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
One thing worth noting...whoever wins, covid is going to rumble on, the world economy will be in the toilet, china will become ever stronger and of course this massive divide in society.
I think whoever loses is going to have a fairly essy time to sit on the sidelines and in 4 years blame the shitshow in whoever has been president.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
I actually think the divide has always been there, and is actually lessening as mobility increases - see evidence of regional accents declining in various countries etc.
All that social media has done is provide it with a platform.
Another way to look at the divide - this is the context for the current Chinese government's One China, One People, One Culture campaign. China isn't a monolith - they are trying to make it one.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I think.
Biden in to 1.63 on Betfair, I see!
Biden won NE-2
Ah, must have misread congressional for presidential. In that case, Sotcky is right:
Biden needs TWO of Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The betting has Biden as favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan and very slight favourite in Georgia. Trump is favourite to win Pennsylvania.
If correct, 286 - 252 Biden. Biden still wins if Georgia goes the other way.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
A balanced result by accident is still an accident.
There are plenty of counties with near one-party representation based on half the vote, or less. Ditto at council level.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
I've said in the past that I really rate your analysis, particularly on liberal candidates. I often overcompensation for my own biases (I forecast a Trump win vs 260 Biden).
But, looking at the maps, it looks like Biden wins MI and WI and won't need PA.
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
Biden needs TWO of Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The betting has Biden as favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan and very slight favourite in Georgia. Trump is favourite to win Pennsylvania.
If correct, 286 - 252 Biden. Biden still wins if Georgia goes the other way.
Though if Biden wins from here, even if he won all 4 (very unlikely) Trump would still dispute this through the courts I feel. However I cant help feeling there would be a strange pleasure if Biden won just WI and MI and won with 270 exactly. I'm not sure Trump's head wouldnt explode. I'd feel much happier if Biden won 3 of those 4 but the way this crazy year has gone a 270 win would somehow fit.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
I'm not a Marxist or even that liberal. Still, America seems to be a textbook example of pitting the working class against each other.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
AV is just slightly more complicated FPTP.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I think.
Biden in to 1.63 on Betfair, I see!
Biden won NE-2
Ah, must have misread congressional for presidential. In that case, Sotcky is right:
Biden needs TWO of Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The betting has Biden as favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan and very slight favourite in Georgia. Trump is favourite to win Pennsylvania.
If correct, 286 - 252 Biden. Biden still wins if Georgia goes the other way.
If it does end up that way with my £10 a point buy on Biden on the spreads at 285 ECVs I make...
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
Social media needs heavy regulation. Exactly how will take time and iterations to work out, but if we dont have some shared understanding of what is happening then of course we wont understand each other.
Self-regulation.
Speech should never be regulated.
Social media is not just speech. It could be regulated by heavily taxing storage of personal data for example.
Big swings in Texas, Georgia, US Hispanics etc... Biden with more white votes and a lower share of the black vote... Say what you will, but it is actually evidence against increasing division along sectional lines.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Because they keep forecasting slam dunk wins and keep having to eat humble pie in very close races, but seem to learn nothing from it?
Last night CNN talking heads were already trying to find all sorts of reasons this happened, but never perhaps their view of the world isn't shared by about 50% of the country.
Trying to claim it waa COVID that kept loads of people with their views from voting, despite turn iut being well up.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
Got to be said, our election night and process is so much better than the US.
Been thinking that throughout this election night. How anyone can think they are the greatest democracy in the world is beyond me.
India has the largest vote of any democracy (IIRC) - and they seem to do much better.
And America has done a good selling job of itself (indeed arguably the place owes its success to advertising, doubtless why if you go there it is awash with it). There wasn’t much democratic about the US in the early days, nor the way the south was run after the civil war, not to mention the widespread corruption in business, industry and politics in the big cities a century or more ago, the organised crime, etc.
The miracle is how the US has manage to sell its shining city image around the world whilst simultaneously making the most of its corrupt, violent and crime ridden dark side to sell films and tv shows.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
So much for stuffing the court, or the statehood proposals.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
I think that's sort of the point, it's supposed to force both parties to try and win in as many places as possible. Unfortunately both seem to have forgotten how.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
I'm not a Marxist or even that liberal. Still, America seems to be a textbook example of pitting the working class against each other.
A cheapo assault rifle is a weapon with a worker at both ends
I think a lot with the betting was people just plain forgot the postal vote late counting in some of these key states. The numbers for Trump based on In person voting were very good, he clearly got his people out. And people saw those numbers thought 2016 and bet accordingly. It does seem that things are much more even now , I feel quite confident about Michigan, Georgia I always had close but felt Trump would just hold it. I still think that. PA I think Trump will also hold just. It was always the state of those 3 rustbelts I felt most at risk of not flipping. Which leaves WI as the key state....any thoughts?
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
So much for stuffing the court, or the statehood proposals.
Officially the Republicans are in favour of PR Statehood.
Some Republican Senators (Marco Rubio especially) are keen advocates of PR Statehood.
As it stands PR has voted 52/48 in favour of Statehood so it will be interesting to see what happens next. Will Rubio vote against it?
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
Yes but Trump has won a place stuffed with retired people having failed to control and denied the existence of a virus that kills lots of old people. Surely a handicap a future Republican won’t have there.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
You mean 2.62 surely??
262 ECVs buy for Biden. It was the low point at god knows what hour of the morning. Thank god I stayed up or I would have lost badly on the spreads. It's looking like a good recovery and a lucky escape.
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
It was close but for a long time Florida has been seen as the jewel in the crown of US elections. Winning that has been seen as crucial. It was thought the demographics favoured Biden slightly, but it translated into a narrow but fairly solid Trump win. The GOP have also outperformed expectations at the state level in the last few cycles. If the GOP are winning states like Florida with a president like Trump, I really can’t see them letting go of it any time soon.
Before going to bed last night the BBC were saying that sources from the Biden campaign were convinced they were going to win. Whatever happens that was clearly foolish.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
You mean 2.62 surely??
I got on Biden when he was at 5 mid-panic last night - thanks to @Casino_Royale
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
You mean 2.62 surely??
I got on Biden when he was at 5 mid-panic last night - thanks to @Casino_Royale
I've made many mistakes on this election but I think I said it before CR, just less impressively But we both spotted something that was crazy in the markets. Punters were following Florida but NOT the swings to Biden in the suburbs esp among white voters. That HAD to portent well for Biden in places that we are now seeing to be crucial to the outcome.
I think a lot with the betting was people just plain forgot the postal vote late counting in some of these key states. The numbers for Trump based on In person voting were very good, he clearly got his people out. And people saw those numbers thought 2016 and bet accordingly. It does seem that things are much more even now , I feel quite confident about Michigan, Georgia I always had close but felt Trump would just hold it. I still think that. PA I think Trump will also hold just. It was always the state of those 3 rustbelts I felt most at risk of not flipping. Which leaves WI as the key state....any thoughts?
I did slightly despair in the early hours when I woke up and saw sheer panic on the Democrat side, it seems they did not read all the articles prior to Election Day that stated that the early returns were always going to favour trump. That said, I think some of it was crushing disappointment at the fact that the Senate was slipping away and that many thought there would be a blowout (they were counting on NC and FL sealing the deal early on).
My predictions at the moment are that Biden will just squeeze out wins in MI, WI and GA. PA will go Trump.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
AV is just slightly more complicated FPTP.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
STV is what you want. Retains constituencies, maximises voter choice, broadly fair, and minimises party control. Plus allows more sensible boundaries - drawn around towns - because you can flex the number of MPs rather than have to produce arbitrary equal sized seats.
Most of us have three councillors, and people don’t say they wish they only had one.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
O/T but I've just been given a clear pass, and some nice comments from the examiner, for my Dissertation Preparation Essay. I think the Buckingham military history course is one you might enjoy. It's probably the least politically correct area of academia, too.
Thanks Sean. Yes, I'd love it.
I doubt I'll have time until the kids leave home though.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
AV is just slightly more complicated FPTP.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
STV is what you want. Retains constituencies, maximises voter choice, broadly fair, and minimises party control. Plus allows more sensible boundaries - drawn around towns - because you can flex the number of MPs rather than have to produce arbitrary equal sized seats.
Most of us have three councillors, and people don’t say they wish they only had one.
No it doesn't retain constituencies, it makes constituencies bigger. Unless you think that we're suddenly going to have 2000 MPs?
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
Has anyone considered this election result might be a good thing?
It gets rid of Trump (just) but humbles the Democrats and teaches them a big lesson about identity politics.
Meanwhile, they have to stop sneering at rednecks to win back the Senate that they want and need.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
Social media needs heavy regulation. Exactly how will take time and iterations to work out, but if we dont have some shared understanding of what is happening then of course we wont understand each other.
Self-regulation.
Speech should never be regulated.
The issue isn’t the speech - it’s that Twitter and Facebook are choosing what to show you.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
AV is just slightly more complicated FPTP.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
STV is what you want. Retains constituencies, maximises voter choice, broadly fair, and minimises party control. Plus allows more sensible boundaries - drawn around towns - because you can flex the number of MPs rather than have to produce arbitrary equal sized seats.
Most of us have three councillors, and people don’t say they wish they only had one.
No it doesn't retain constituencies, it makes constituencies bigger. Unless you think that we're suddenly going to have 2000 MPs?
Therefore it retains constituencies - not the current ones, obvs (which are very often absurd in relation to geography) - but the concept of people representing a local patch and voters have identified politicians for their area.
There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
Good points. Florida results still very close though? And would a Patrician Republican appeal to the same dem demographic, like how would Romney have done in rust belt yesterday?
Yes but Trump has won a place stuffed with retired people having failed to control and denied the existence of a virus that kills lots of old people. Surely a handicap a future Republican won’t have there.
Yes, but they like Trump. The fact someone’s strategic and managerial incompetence is killing you isn’t particularly important, if you like their nationalism you will follow them into the fire.
I might be wrong, but I’m trying to say to get Trump results you need to be Trump, not any Republican candidate, likely not one being serious about the environment, globalisation, post industrial transformation etc.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
Just winding you up Philip. I know your views. Although I didn't know you were ok with AV. I have to say a few years back I came around to AV from STV. I'm not sure I did so for entirely logical reasons though. More for including the more competitive element to the election and although far from proportionate it only tends to be very disproportionate when one side does particularly well in which case I have less concern about the lack of proportionality.
AV is just slightly more complicated FPTP.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
STV is what you want. Retains constituencies, maximises voter choice, broadly fair, and minimises party control. Plus allows more sensible boundaries - drawn around towns - because you can flex the number of MPs rather than have to produce arbitrary equal sized seats.
Most of us have three councillors, and people don’t say they wish they only had one.
No it doesn't retain constituencies, it makes constituencies bigger. Unless you think that we're suddenly going to have 2000 MPs?
I´ve never understood why electing one MP for Wolverhampton South East, for example, instead of electing three MPs for all of Wolverhampton was somehow more democratic. I think fitting the number of MPs to fit the boundaries, instead of fitting the boundaries to fit one MP is much better. Most of us know which county or city we belong to, whereas only political sad cases know or care about internal electoral boundaries, and of course there is the constant issue of gerrymandering, even with the Electoral Commission.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
Has anyone considered this election result might be a good thing?
It gets rid of Trump (just) but humbles the Democrats and teaches them a big lesson about identity politics.
Meanwhile, they have to stop sneering at rednecks to win back the Senate that they want and need.
I absolutely 100% agree with this, as surprising as that might seem.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
The markets and everyone else is being completely mislead by the estimated share of votes counted figures. In most cases the votes counted are a far lower number than the estimates, because they don't reflect a massive increase in turnout.
Now is the time to go into Betfair but DYOR etc.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
On Biden you mean?
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
You mean 2.62 surely??
I got on Biden when he was at 5 mid-panic last night - thanks to @Casino_Royale
I've made many mistakes on this election but I think I said it before CR, just less impressively But we both spotted something that was crazy in the markets. Punters were following Florida but NOT the swings to Biden in the suburbs esp among white voters. That HAD to portent well for Biden in places that we are now seeing to be crucial to the outcome.
Exactly this, even in states like Kentucky the suburbs were showing that. Add to that some punters forgetting about how some states would count huge numbers of early postal votes much later or even in the coming days and the market moved toward Trump bigly. Having said that Bidens far from home though things look better for him, NV could still spring a surprise though I feel the postal votes left will see him home. But Biden still needs 2 of those 4 states MI, WI, PA and GA, his chances are good but by no means certain. Add to that Trump has clearly again set out his response going forward if he loses and this is going to drag on and on, with legal battles.
Given the fact that places like Idaho count for as much as California in the Senate, I think that it will be extremely hard for the Democrats to regain that chamber in the future, unless they can appeal to rural voters.
Has anyone considered this election result might be a good thing?
It gets rid of Trump (just) but humbles the Democrats and teaches them a big lesson about identity politics.
Meanwhile, they have to stop sneering at rednecks to win back the Senate that they want and need.
Very much so. Putting my betting wishes to one side, my ideal was a narrow Biden win (to get rid of ogre Trump who is a disgrace to the US) with GOP holding the Senate.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by this illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. We`ll never know how many votes he lost by "taking the knee" for instance.
There's been a lot of talk about it being a disappointing night for the Dems but if Biden wins the EC 306 to 232 and the EV by >5%, I am not sure how the GOP, with a losing incumbent President, can take a lot of comfort from that.
At the moment that relies on all 4 going Dem. If they do then yes, it's 2018 all over again, Dem under perform in the Senate but win the main event but people miss that due to slow counting.
If they take all 4 the thing that will haunt the Dems is North Carolina. If they had flipped Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina it would have been a very impressive night. As it is, Trump could well win.
So CNN thought there were 89% of votes in in Wayne County. They spoke to an election official who said there were more like 65%. THIS is what everyone is missing.
You can tell Biden is starting to do better, CNN are hyper ventilating! MI and WI do both look good. So if that continues then unless NV provides a real shock tomorrow, Biden is at 270 min.
Comments
Speech should never be regulated.
I think whoever loses is going to have a fairly essy time to sit on the sidelines and in 4 years blame the shitshow in whoever has been president.
What goes down in Dougherty county? Seems very blue for what looks rural and way out from Colombus.
67.1 % black. Contains city of Albany.
All that social media has done is provide it with a platform.
Another way to look at the divide - this is the context for the current Chinese government's One China, One People, One Culture campaign. China isn't a monolith - they are trying to make it one.
Biden needs TWO of Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The betting has Biden as favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan and very slight favourite in Georgia. Trump is favourite to win Pennsylvania.
If correct, 286 - 252 Biden. Biden still wins if Georgia goes the other way.
There are plenty of counties with near one-party representation based on half the vote, or less. Ditto at council level.
As Maine = 4 ECV one of the above must be wrong??
Help!
But, looking at the maps, it looks like Biden wins MI and WI and won't need PA.
But I dare not believe it!
1. Are Florida/Ohio even swing states any more? They look to be trending GOP over time to the extent that I really don’t think any democrat can look for a route through those states in the next few cycles.
2. Conversely, Arizona and Texas are gradually moving to be more in play for Democrats. They didn’t get Texas this time but every time there is an election there they are inching forwards bit by bit.
3. The rust belt is now the most significant battleground of US politics. 2016 was not an aberration.
I'd feel much happier if Biden won 3 of those 4 but the way this crazy year has gone a 270 win would somehow fit.
The opportunity will be gone in an hour.
The key strength of FPTP is having one MP per constituency. That if something hits my location I have one single MP I can speak to and who has to stand up for our area.
America's state-bloc FPTP is just as bad as PR for getting rid of that advantage.
I came in at 262 when everything looked bleak and I'm happy with that.
£10.
Trying to claim it waa COVID that kept loads of people with their views from voting, despite turn iut being well up.
NYT has 227 -213
CNN has 224-213 with Maine to come
If Maine = 4 (regardless of split) one map must be out by 1.
(Masking the incredibly narrow squeaks across the midwest)
But I'm taking nothing for granted right now. This has been a rollercoaster night and I'm hoping we don't get another twist.
The miracle is how the US has manage to sell its shining city image around the world whilst simultaneously making the most of its corrupt, violent and crime ridden dark side to sell films and tv shows.
286 - 252 Biden.
With Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia. And Nevada and Arizona.
Trump wins Pennsylvania and N Carolina.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
It does seem that things are much more even now , I feel quite confident about Michigan, Georgia I always had close but felt Trump would just hold it. I still think that. PA I think Trump will also hold just. It was always the state of those 3 rustbelts I felt most at risk of not flipping.
Which leaves WI as the key state....any thoughts?
Some Republican Senators (Marco Rubio especially) are keen advocates of PR Statehood.
As it stands PR has voted 52/48 in favour of Statehood so it will be interesting to see what happens next. Will Rubio vote against it?
Biden POTUS 1.5
Biden WI 1.25
Biden MI 1.3
Trump PN 1.8
Biden GA 1.8
Lol indeed @Casino_Royale
My predictions at the moment are that Biden will just squeeze out wins in MI, WI and GA. PA will go Trump.
Most of us have three councillors, and people don’t say they wish they only had one.
I doubt I'll have time until the kids leave home though.
It gets rid of Trump (just) but humbles the Democrats and teaches them a big lesson about identity politics.
Meanwhile, they have to stop sneering at rednecks to win back the Senate that they want and need.
I might be wrong, but I’m trying to say to get Trump results you need to be Trump, not any Republican candidate, likely not one being serious about the environment, globalisation, post industrial transformation etc.
Nope, don't be a dick. I don't 'blame' them in any way – it was merely an observation.
Having said that Bidens far from home though things look better for him, NV could still spring a surprise though I feel the postal votes left will see him home. But Biden still needs 2 of those 4 states MI, WI, PA and GA, his chances are good but by no means certain.
Add to that Trump has clearly again set out his response going forward if he loses and this is going to drag on and on, with legal battles.
My reason was the identity politics stuff. I think Biden will squeak it, but he would have won more handsomely if the dems weren`t so liable to be captured by this illiberal garbage and virtue signalling of the far left. We`ll never know how many votes he lost by "taking the knee" for instance.
If they take all 4 the thing that will haunt the Dems is North Carolina. If they had flipped Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina it would have been a very impressive night. As it is, Trump could well win.
Good job.