Surprised NV and AZ haven't been called yet. What are we waiting for there?
Election day counts to finish, and in Nevada postal ballots to arrive late which were posted today. AZ has been called by AP and Fox, but not ABC. Not sure anyone has called NV.
I can cash out now for an absolutely certain £1,600 haircut. Or I can stay in and win nearly £3k if Biden wins, but risk losing £3.4k if Trump wins.
I'm not sure I'll be much less happy with losing £3.4k compared to £1.6k, and even more annoyed if Biden eventually clinches it by a whisker.
What to do..?
Interesting that it's a dilemma.
I got jittery long before election day and cashed out (rarely put my money where my mouth is before), but all through election night I've felt like the odds have swung too far in Trump's favour and been tempted to bet on Biden again, including now. I've not done so because I'm too emotionally involved in the outcome.
I've got better at disconnecting my emotions and loss aversion.
anyone have any thoughts on GA? I see the needle is stuck at 92% and 0.4 to Biden. Is that it for today in GA? Anyone have any idea on whats left and what the chances are?
I have done back of a fag spreadsheet packet on Penn. Taking all counties with more than 90% of vote to count, and assuming the same Trump-Biden divide in each county as to date, then the result will be decided by a tiny amount.
200 votes.
Trump edges it.
Obviously the votes to be counted might be skewed (by postal) to Biden.
If that's not neck and neck, I don't know what is.
The divide won't be the same though will it? Because most of the votes left to count are absentee.
I know.
If my quick and dirty is on target then Penn is Biden's.
* assuming that the idea that absentee vote still general favour Dems is still holding?
Ah, got it.
I think it is, has so far in WI and it's the reason GA is still a tossup. The NYT has a page where they visualise the estimated vote left and where it is, and it looks like more blue bubbles of votes than red, and larger ones.
Surprised NV and AZ haven't been called yet. What are we waiting for there?
Election day counts to finish, and in Nevada postal ballots to arrive late which were posted today. AZ has been called by AP and Fox, but not ABC. Not sure anyone has called NV.
Ralston did (but prior to election day, based on early votes)
anyone have any thoughts on GA? I see the needle is stuck at 92% and 0.4 to Biden. Is that it for today in GA? Anyone have any idea on whats left and what the chances are?
Fulton County (Atlanta) resumes the count on Wednesday morning.
Most American voters get the President they prefer. Trump gets to spend the rest of kis life "knowing" he won "really".
Win-win. In the end.
They should make a deal where Trump gets the White House and the plane and his supporters still consider him president, but Biden makes all the decisions.
That would work. Could we try something similar in the UK?
(Oh, and give Dom his Mission Control with screens and stuff... Just wire the computer inputs into random number generators and the outputs into landfill. The overall effect will probably be the same.)
Currently Biden has a 80k lead in Wayne county Michigan, Clinton won that county by 291k. Biden has expanded in cities just about everywhere (except Miami). That's the lead in Michigan before you even look at the missing vote in Flint and Grand Rapids.
Regarding polling, here's my dull fence-sitting view:
1. Clearly the pollsters have had a miss, but; 2. Until we know the winners and margins of the Midwest it's not clear to me it was a massive polling miss. Lots of states Biden was favoured in were expected to be narrow, and narrow defeats when narrow wins were predicted isn't that bad.
Having said which, that 17% Biden lead in Wisconsin (by an A+ pollster)...
Florida 538 polling average was Biden +2.5 Trump currently leads +3.4 Error 5.9 Texas 538 polling average was Trump +1.1 Trump currently leads +6.0 Error 4.9 Ohio 538 polling average was Trump +0.8 Trump currently leads +8.1 Error 7.3
These are not small errors. Given turnout, most likely explanation is that even more High School education voters turned out, as @MrEd suggested.
anyone have any thoughts on GA? I see the needle is stuck at 92% and 0.4 to Biden. Is that it for today in GA? Anyone have any idea on whats left and what the chances are?
Fulton County (Atlanta) resumes the count on Wednesday morning.
Fulton is heavily D so I'm assuming that the 8% remaining is not all from there if its still a 50/50 toss up, do we know any other counties not finished counts yet?
It looks to me like the lawyers won't be needed. Biden is wracking up massive new votes. And i think the "estimated votes to come" may be significantly understated.
Currently Biden has a 80k lead in Wayne county Michigan, Clinton won that county by 291k. Biden has expanded in cities just about everywhere (except Miami). That's the lead in Michigan before you even look at the missing vote in Flint and Grand Rapids.
If that's true then Biden has probably done it - *assuming* he doesn't drop Nevade or ME-2
anyone have any thoughts on GA? I see the needle is stuck at 92% and 0.4 to Biden. Is that it for today in GA? Anyone have any idea on whats left and what the chances are?
Fulton County (Atlanta) resumes the count on Wednesday morning.
Fulton is heavily D so I'm assuming that the 8% remaining is not all from there if its still a 50/50 toss up, do we know any other counties not finished counts yet?
Regarding polling, here's my dull fence-sitting view:
1. Clearly the pollsters have had a miss, but; 2. Until we know the winners and margins of the Midwest it's not clear to me it was a massive polling miss. Lots of states Biden was favoured in were expected to be narrow, and narrow defeats when narrow wins were predicted isn't that bad.
Having said which, that 17% Biden lead in Wisconsin (by an A+ pollster)...
Florida 538 polling average was Biden +2.5 Trump currently leads +3.4 Error 5.9 Texas 538 polling average was Trump +1.1 Trump currently leads +6.0 Error 4.9 Ohio 538 polling average was Trump +0.8 Trump currently leads +8.1 Error 7.3
These are not small errors. Given turnout, most likely explanation is that even more High School education voters turned out, as @MrEd suggested.
It looks to me like the lawyers won't be needed. Biden is wracking up massive new votes. And i think the "estimated votes to come" may be significantly understated.
We're talking about Donald Trump here. A graceful concession I suppose is technically possible.
You can see why Trump is doing the 'stop the counting, fraudulent vote' schtick. Clearly he knows the EV votes now dropping in could make the difference between a W and a L. I still think he will win now but clearly he knows theres still a chance he could just just lose because of these postals etc.
To call fraud when he has a decent chance to win through legitimate means is odd. But then he does a lot of odd things.
Lmao, delay counting until all the in-person votes come in and then in the middle of the night get ridiculously high mail margins that miraculously win a close victory.
Trafalgar must have done pretty well as far as pollsters are concerned.
What is the next event that people can smugly take the mickey out of @HYUFD over his predictions, before he’s right and they’re wrong?
The acid test will come when the non-conservative wins. If HY successfully predicts that, he will deserve kudos.
Maybe Tralfagar’s way of coming to their conclusions is better than traditional opinion polling
For sure. It is possible that HY is a shrewd judge of evidence and selected that, based on his experience, instinct and judgement, that he felt provided the best pointer of how things might go. And didn't bother to worry PB readers about the why and wherefore.
However it's also possible that he tipped the conservative to win because he always tips the conservative and wants the conservative to win, and simply dredges up whatever data he can find to support a preconceived outcome.
In the latter case, the surprise isn't HY's forecast, but the conservative win (if indeed that transpires).
As I said a few days back, if you always cheer for Arsenal, and Arsenal wins, you're a fan, not a pundit.
I guess the same goes for those lefties who wrote the threads that tipped Remain, said to lay Boris for the leadership, and backed Clinton and Biden?
Biden might still win of course. He’s only the same price now as Trump was 24 hours ago
I think the question is about evidence. The polling evidence seemed to be so strongly pro-Biden that it simply looked perverse and partisan to stand out against that consensus. In fact we have a polling failure on a scale that currently looks even greater than in 2016.
Both in national and, especially, in state calls the polls have been way off. This to the point that we simply can not rely on them in betting... thats going to make life a lot more "interesting" going forward.
I have been a poll Denialist once, when I didn't believe the gap closing in 2017, and lost money betting on the sure thing Con Majority.
But after this I'm fucked, without vaguely accurate polls I've got nothing to bet on.
I definitely panicked a bit last night and traded out too much of my Biden position. I think Biden takes and WI, MI and AZ for sure. High probability in NV and a fair chance in GA.
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Another thing, if if if if if if if Biden just squeaks this ... he may well have a Republican Senate.
I will be sorry for our American cousins if they have to put up with at least another 2 years of McConnells antics, but at least the orange blob will have gone....
It looks to me like the lawyers won't be needed. Biden is wracking up massive new votes. And i think the "estimated votes to come" may be significantly understated.
We're talking about Donald Trump here. A graceful concession I suppose is technically possible.
Whether he concedes or not, he needs to have grounds to go to court. Once the post election day votes received etc become irrelevant he's seriously struggling.
Lmao, delay counting until all the in-person votes come in and then in the middle of the night get ridiculously high mail margins that miraculously win a close victory.
True banana Republic.
You think counting ballots makes a banana republic? What?
Sorry - don't know how to quote but DougSeal below says:
"The New York Times estimates that there are 1.9 million votes yet to be counted in PA - largely absentees. Politico breaks the absentees down as being 1.6 million from registered Democrats, 586,000 from registered Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters (the different is in uncounted on the day ballots -many in Philadelphia). This is not scientific at all but lets call the these votes, based on that, and, generously to Trump, 3 to 1 in Biden's favour. In doing so we allocate a rough total of about a futher 1.27 million to votes to Biden and 633,300 to Trump.
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
You can see why Trump is doing the 'stop the counting, fraudulent vote' schtick. Clearly he knows the EV votes now dropping in could make the difference between a W and a L. I still think he will win now but clearly he knows theres still a chance he could just just lose because of these postals etc.
To call fraud when he has a decent chance to win through legitimate means is odd. But then he does a lot of odd things.
I think this was in his playbook. I think he knew he was going to have big problems with absentee ballots and so decided on a strategy where he would call the election when the on the day returns, which were always going to favour him, were reported. He's been signalling it for weeks.
Another thing, if if if if if if if Biden just squeaks this ... he may well have a Republican Senate.
I think it's very likely, GOP gets 52 seats at this rate. No chance for Biden to pack the courts, I think that may have been what saves the GOP majority in the senate in the end.
If Trump had handled covid only a fraction more competently, and its hard to see how he could have done worse, then he would certainly have been re-elected.
It is quite shocking how badly he handled the virus, but is on the verge of re-election.
It's a sign of what an appalling candidate Biden was. I mean how could the Dems manage to find someone even worse than Hillary?
All they had to go was put up someone youngish (mid 40s) fresh faced and hopeful and they'd have walked this.
Was that really so difficult?
Would they? I don't think Buttigieg for example would have won over many more Trump voters than Biden did to be honest, Warren or Sanders would probably have done worse than Biden did
Id guess Buttigieg would have had a different coalition of voters even if not a bigger coalition than Biden. He would do well with those valuing competence, youth, military and less well with some social and religious conservatives. Agree Warren, Sanders or Harris would have done worse.
I heard some amusing stories from my mates in US Navy Intelligence from when Buttigieg was over here on one of his reservist tours.
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That was his point. Rather than do what we do in the UK, and count how many votes there are first, before sorting them, in the US the "expected votes" starts from last time's total and gets adjusted as each locality completes its count.
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That was his point. Rather than do what we do in the UK, and count how many votes there are first, before sorting them, in the US the "expected votes" starts from last time's total and gets adjusted as each locality completes its count.
Exactly - and the polls showed 20% voters who did not vote last time.
Nevada looking good for Trump I hate to say it but it's true
If so could make up for the loss of NE02, Trump now 1% behind in Nevada.
If Trump won Nevada and Biden adds Wisconsin and Michigan to the states he currently holds it would be Biden 264 and Trump 254 and back to Pennsylvania as tipping point state again
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That was his point. Rather than do what we do in the UK, and count how many votes there are first, before sorting them, in the US the "expected votes" starts from last time's total and gets adjusted as each locality completes its count.
But you can bet that this is going to create a problem reinforcing the message of "fraud" and "finding new votes". It's a massively bad way for the networks to present it because it won't be remotely understood.
Nevada looking good for Trump I hate to say it but it's true
If Trump wins Michigan and ME-2 and Nevada, but Biden wins PA and Wisconsin then I think Biden is on 268 and Trump on 253 and it all comes down to Georgia.
If Trump had handled covid only a fraction more competently, and its hard to see how he could have done worse, then he would certainly have been re-elected.
I think you might be overestimating the impact of facts, evidence and logic.
Nevada looking good for Trump I hate to say it but it's true
If Trump wins Michigan and ME-2 and Nevada, but Biden wins PA and Wisconsin then I think Biden is on 268 and Trump on 253 and it all comes down to Georgia.
Will the electors include bonkers republicans in democrat states, who could use the Trump line as top cover for faithlessness? Not sure how they are selected?
You can see why Trump is doing the 'stop the counting, fraudulent vote' schtick. Clearly he knows the EV votes now dropping in could make the difference between a W and a L. I still think he will win now but clearly he knows theres still a chance he could just just lose because of these postals etc.
To call fraud when he has a decent chance to win through legitimate means is odd. But then he does a lot of odd things.
I think this was in his playbook. I think he knew he was going to have big problems with absentee ballots and so decided on a strategy where he would call the election when the on the day returns, which were always going to favour him, were reported. He's been signalling it for weeks.
Hand on heart, if Biden gets the Presidency he's bloody lucky.
I mean, I know he's likely to win the popular vote but if he does this it will because he has squeaked through in a number of midwestern states by the skin of his teeth.
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That was his point. Rather than do what we do in the UK, and count how many votes there are first, before sorting them, in the US the "expected votes" starts from last time's total and gets adjusted as each locality completes its count.
But you can bet that this is going to create a problem reinforcing the message of "fraud" and "finding new votes". It's a massively bad way for the networks to present it because it won't be remotely understood.
Indeed. But there's also the point that if the actual turnout in the big cities where the count is slowest was as high as elsewhere, then Biden has scope to add more to his total than it would appear from the %IN figure.
The fact that the estimates of %IN vary so widely may be for this reason?
Comments
State of this.
I think it is, has so far in WI and it's the reason GA is still a tossup. The NYT has a page where they visualise the estimated vote left and where it is, and it looks like more blue bubbles of votes than red, and larger ones.
Currently
Trump: 237,435
Biden: 283,368
But the split is
In person (all precincts reporting)
Trump: 205485
Biden: 144943
Mail:
Trump: 31950
Biden: 138425
There are still 178,445 mail votes to count If they split in similar proportion then that's a final score of
Trump: 270,898
Biden: 395,834
EU member state there, supporting dictatorships
So this could go either way.
(Oh, and give Dom his Mission Control with screens and stuff... Just wire the computer inputs into random number generators and the outputs into landfill. The overall effect will probably be the same.)
How many votes left in Michigan?
Texas 538 polling average was Trump +1.1 Trump currently leads +6.0 Error 4.9
Ohio 538 polling average was Trump +0.8 Trump currently leads +8.1 Error 7.3
These are not small errors. Given turnout, most likely explanation is that even more High School education voters turned out, as @MrEd suggested.
If he ends up on 270 exactly this is going to be insane. But not unexpected for 2020, admittedly.
Edit: watch Hillary screw it up by voting for herself in NY or something bonkers like that.
He doesn't like Trump much.
You can sort by "votes reported".
This is plausible.
True banana Republic.
But after this I'm fucked, without vaguely accurate polls I've got nothing to bet on.
Not necessarily that useful though e.g. for MI:
"4,400,217 votes counted. Estimated 79.8% - 93.8% in"
(Wtf is that decimal doing!?)
"The New York Times estimates that there are 1.9 million votes yet to be counted in PA - largely absentees. Politico breaks the absentees down as being 1.6 million from registered Democrats, 586,000 from registered Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters (the different is in uncounted on the day ballots -many in Philadelphia). This is not scientific at all but lets call the these votes, based on that, and, generously to Trump, 3 to 1 in Biden's favour. In doing so we allocate a rough total of about a futher 1.27 million to votes to Biden and 633,300 to Trump.
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
Trump - 2,964,853 + 633,300 = 3,598,153
Biden - 2,286,865 + 1,270,000 = 3,556,865"
Isn't that a 2 to 1 allocation ? 3 to 1 allocation gives a clear Biden win in PA.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That Wisconsin moment might be 'the' moment.
But we've had so many twists and turns I'm not presuming on anything.
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323930196765003777?s=20
I've layed off half of my doomsday position.
He's a pushy little sod...
Westmoreland, the Ballots split
Biden: 68%
Trump: 32%
If that is replicated across all mail in ballots then Trump wins PA.
If Trump won Nevada and Biden adds Wisconsin and Michigan to the states he currently holds it would be Biden 264 and Trump 254 and back to Pennsylvania as tipping point state again
And no Faithless (I can't get no sleep).
This is crazy.
Tighter than a ferret's arsehole.
I mean, I know he's likely to win the popular vote but if he does this it will because he has squeaked through in a number of midwestern states by the skin of his teeth.
Remains an 'if.'
The fact that the estimates of %IN vary so widely may be for this reason?