Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
That doesn't sound like a grey area. Click and collect is specifically allowed.
Wasn't Argos always click and collect?
"Shopping for people used to signing on" as Jo Caufield used to rather caustically put it.
Argos is an amazing operation who web wise has been miles ahead of the competition. Their pioneering of click and collect was a revolution.
Yes Nate's summary pretty much tallies with what Ralston is seeing, it will be close though. But those 75K postal votes in Clark County will favour Biden , mail ballots are going about 2-1 for him
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)
It really scares me that this could end up 270-268. In theory Biden has then won but you only need 1 idiot in the EC to throw it to the house. This could so end up as Bush vs. Gore on steroids.
I think Casino Royale was wise to take a small profit.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Yep Biden has Arizona and Nevada.
Not by a lot, but he has them
So if as seems quite possible now he wins WI , he needs GA , MI or PA to win?
In a different universe where the Rust Belt counted early and the South was the next day and with the same result we would have all gone to bed and woken up thinking Biden had won a landslide and then it would have started to tighten. Weird thought.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)
Nice calculation. For me too much of the 8% could be accounted for by correlations and un-in-the-bagness of the 238 (e.g. ABC still not projecting AZ) to bet off of it, but still very useful.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)
It really scares me that this could end up 270-268. In theory Biden has then won but you only need 1 idiot in the EC to throw it to the house. This could so end up as Bush vs. Gore on steroids.
I think Casino Royale was wise to take a small profit.
I don't buy the faithless electors scenario because presumably you'd just get tit for tat if they did that?
Can we all agree that while the Electoral College is a pretty crappy way of choosing the most important elected official on the entire planet, it makes for insanely entertaining elections.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)
It really scares me that this could end up 270-268. In theory Biden has then won but you only need 1 idiot in the EC to throw it to the house. This could so end up as Bush vs. Gore on steroids.
I think Casino Royale was wise to take a small profit.
Am I right in thinking Betfair pay out on the 270-268?
Presumably a President could in theory openly bribe a couple of faithless electors with a few million and the only people who could remove him for it would be a Republican senate needing 67 votes......
In a different universe where the Rust Belt counted early and the South was the next day and with the same result we would have all gone to bed and woken up thinking Biden had won a landslide and then it would have started to tighten. Weird thought.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Yep Biden has Arizona and Nevada.
Not by a lot, but he has them
So if as seems quite possible now he wins WI , he needs GA , MI or PA to win?
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Yep Biden has Arizona and Nevada.
Not by a lot, but he has them
So if as seems quite possible now he wins WI , he needs GA , MI or PA to win?
Correct - any one of those will do.
I think he can also get through with North Carolina plus the 2nd Maine congressional district. If he loses the latter, then the dead heat is back on the table.
CNN - godawful inability to compute the differences in WHEN people voted. 'Impressive leads' in XYZ were nothing of the sort, as it turned out.
NYT needle - I love the New York Times but I wish they had put needles in the Midwest which currently look likely to decide the result
Spreadex - their spread has been suspended almost the whole night. Disgraceful. I got out and re-bought at 262 but I'm not impressed. Will never use them again
Punters - as usual punters over here and on Betfair didn't follow the US on the ground details. There was a moment in the early hours when Biden went out to 5 and I told people to buy. I've made some mistakes but that wasn't one of them.
For me personally it's too soon to tally up but it hasn't been my best night. I thought Biden would get 300 ECVs and he's going to be lower than that. But I think he will 'just' win. Not the landslide I predicted!!!!
Trump - disgraceful speech in the early hours. Just the worst.
Biden - he may become President but if so he's the luckiest man on the planet.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)
It really scares me that this could end up 270-268. In theory Biden has then won but you only need 1 idiot in the EC to throw it to the house. This could so end up as Bush vs. Gore on steroids.
I think Casino Royale was wise to take a small profit.
I calculate that is a 18% chance. 12% of that is Nevada+Wisconsin+Michigan
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Yep Biden has Arizona and Nevada.
Not by a lot, but he has them
So if as seems quite possible now he wins WI , he needs GA , MI or PA to win?
I don’t think you can call AZ for Biden.
His lead is 5pc with 82pc of the vote in. Bear in mind, he was at a 9pc lead with 73pc in.
So, it is clear that the vote on the day vote has broken heavily for Trump. Maricopa was 6pc up for Biden vs 10pc previously.
I still think there are enough votes for Trump to win AZ
I wouldn't be completely surprised to see USA slide into... if not an outright civil war then certainly severe civil unrest and violence over the next couple of years.
With so much division and so many guns all over the place it looks like a tinderbox doesn't it?
If I was in a position to take a profit I would do so now. Alas my piss poor trading means I am in a hole but it's only a couple of hundred now after reducing my exposure so I am going to let it ride.
Not a moral victory but a big political one. He's delivered a conservative majority of 6-3 on the Supreme Court, and a Republican hold in the Senate. Come 2022, under President Biden, and the Republicans will extend their Senate lead and flip the House.
CNN - godawful inability to compute the differences in WHEN people voted. 'Impressive leads' in XYZ were nothing of the sort, as it turned out.
NYT needle - I love the New York Times but I wish they had put needles in the Midwest which currently look likely to decide the result
Spreadex - their spread has been suspended almost the whole night. Disgraceful. I got out and re-bought but I'm not impressed. Will never use them again
Punters - as usual punters over here and on Betfair didn't follow the US on the ground details.
For me personally it's too soon to tally up but it hasn't been my best night. I thought Biden would get 300 ECVs and he's going to be lower than that. But I think he will 'just' win.
Trump - disgraceful speech in the early hours. Just the worst.
Biden - he may become President but if so he's the luckiest man on the planet.
CNN - godawful inability to compute the differences in WHEN people voted. 'Impressive leads' in XYZ were nothing of the sort, as it turned out.
NYT needle - I love the New York Times but I wish they had put needles in the Midwest which currently look likely to decide the result
Spreadex - their spread has been suspended almost the whole night. Disgraceful. I got out and re-bought but I'm not impressed. Will never use them again
Punters - as usual punters over here and on Betfair didn't follow the US on the ground details.
For me personally it's too soon to tally up but it hasn't been my best night. I thought Biden would get 300 ECVs and he's going to be lower than that. But I think he will 'just' win.
Trump - disgraceful speech in the early hours. Just the worst.
Biden - he may become President but if so he's the luckiest man on the planet.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Yep Biden has Arizona and Nevada.
Not by a lot, but he has them
So if as seems quite possible now he wins WI , he needs GA , MI or PA to win?
Yes, though for reasons of everyone’s sanity I would quite like him to pick up two of them, just so there is a cushion. Otherwise we’re going to spend the next month or so with opinion piece upon opinion piece on faithless electors.
I also can’t see the states with narrow margins escaping Trump litigation, so having a buffer would be... helpful.
I suppose they just threw the page up in a hurry when everything fell over but I love the idea that they *scheduled* maintenance during the first 2 hours of the count...
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Ah thanks. Don't pay up just yet, that sweep is not quite probable but certainly possible.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
Of course there is still the chance that Biden gets PA too. If everything falls right he could end up on 300+ EVs. Though I think he’ll just fall short in PA.
Not a moral victory but a big political one. He's delivered a conservative majority of 6-3 on the Supreme Court, and a Republican hold in the Senate. Come 2022, under President Biden, and the Republicans will extend their Senate lead and flip the House.
Rep majorities in the Senate and the House by 2022 could be helpful for getting that trade deal done even if Sleepy Joe wants to send us to the back of the queue!
I suspect it's this thinking that's driving down Biden's price.
Well it looks like he has won Arizona and Nevada. Tight but wins.
Wisconsin looks fairly good for him right now.
I think the Democratic focus on the Midwest might prove a masterstroke, and don't forget Pa. is where they piled in most effort which will reflcct in mail-ins, but I still think Joe Biden is only going to win this (if he does) by some bloody narrow margins in key midwest states.
If so he's bloody lucky.
The good thing for his kudos will be winning the popular vote.
That's brave. I think we are in the zone where there is too much chance of skulduggery - whether it be lawsuits stopping the counting of mail ballets, recounts or faithless elections.
I can see Biden squeaking it out if things are free and fair but not sure if it will be.
Of course there is still the chance that Biden gets PA too. If everything falls right he could end up on 300+ EVs. Though I think he’ll just fall short in PA.
The Networks are saying c75% counted in PA. But it could actually be significantly lower.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
"Wisconsin (probably)"
I think Trump will take Wisconsin. The Dem strongholds are already in.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn Replying to @Nate_Cohn And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
That's brave. I think we are in the zone where there is too much chance of skulduggery - whether it be lawsuits stopping the counting of mail ballets, recounts or faithless elections.
I can see Biden squeaking it out if things are free and fair but not sure if it will be.
It's a trading monkey.
I don't intend to lock up any cash in these markets for months, even once a winner is known. I'll green out.
Got to be said, our election night and process is so much better than the US.
Yes. As someone who has been a computer geek for decades -
- Do not replace simple paper ballots, counted by hand, by an adequate staff.
As a hard core atheist -
- The Electoral Commission gets some stick from time to time. Go to church and light a candle and Thank God for them. And for the quiet army of election officials who just get it done.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
Thanks. It helped to have company. I only drank one bottle of wine. The champagne is still in the fridge.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
He's bollocksing up the strategy, you're supposed to wait until you know what votes you want invalidated and then make very grave, serious allegations about the seriousness of the process and how important it is to the integrity of the process that a signature with a missing cross on the "t" should absolutely not be counted but there is no statutory requirement to dot an "i".
Going straight after the process before millions of votes have been counted will be great for his ratings if he loses, but it will make any judge who finds in his favour look like a total hack.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House votes in a funny way IIRC. It’s not one member one vote. It votes on state delegation lines (so majority of reps in state = 1 vote for that party’s candidate). Owing to the fact the Dem majority is based on large population states, I believe this means that the GOP would win a presidential election in the House even as the minority party.
Imagine if the Republicans had a younger, nimbler, less embarrassing, more articulate populist. They would be romping home.
One thing I notice in the UK: LinkedIN and Facebook are *pure* virtue signalling. First woman this. First gay that. First minority disabled female there. Lots of likes and applause. White privilege, of course of course - natch. "I *repent*" (flagellates back).
In private, almost everyone I speaks to thinks it's OTT, and some really hate it.
They keep their mouths shut, but they have a private vote.
EDIT: if that's what it's like in the UK, reserved, fair play, polite etc - then what's it like in the USA where the culture divisions are far far worse, and they're much more polarised about who they talk to and engage with?
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
"Wisconsin (probably)"
I think Trump will take Wisconsin. The Dem strongholds are already in.
You can get 4.3 on Betfair on Trump winning Wisconsin.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn Replying to @Nate_Cohn And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
Very clear narrow favourite by a method that was saying 90% Trump or so a few hours ago.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
I mean there is that, but remember the Democrats have managed to win over a majority...
Comments
There's a reason Sainsburys bought them up.
The crux is how low the figure goes in the deep red parts of the State.
Not by a lot, but he has them
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1323940803702640645?s=20
I think Casino Royale was wise to take a small profit.
What's wrong with these people - can't they stay up all night like the rest of us?!
Thursday – it's absolutely ridiculous.
Presumably a President could in theory openly bribe a couple of faithless electors with a few million and the only people who could remove him for it would be a Republican senate needing 67 votes......
CNN - godawful inability to compute the differences in WHEN people voted. 'Impressive leads' in XYZ were nothing of the sort, as it turned out.
NYT needle - I love the New York Times but I wish they had put needles in the Midwest which currently look likely to decide the result
Spreadex - their spread has been suspended almost the whole night. Disgraceful. I got out and re-bought at 262 but I'm not impressed. Will never use them again
Punters - as usual punters over here and on Betfair didn't follow the US on the ground details. There was a moment in the early hours when Biden went out to 5 and I told people to buy. I've made some mistakes but that wasn't one of them.
For me personally it's too soon to tally up but it hasn't been my best night. I thought Biden would get 300 ECVs and he's going to be lower than that. But I think he will 'just' win. Not the landslide I predicted!!!!
Trump - disgraceful speech in the early hours. Just the worst.
Biden - he may become President but if so he's the luckiest man on the planet.
Why?
His lead is 5pc with 82pc of the vote in. Bear in mind, he was at a 9pc lead with 73pc in.
So, it is clear that the vote on the day vote has broken heavily for Trump. Maricopa was 6pc up for Biden vs 10pc previously.
I still think there are enough votes for Trump to win AZ
With so much division and so many guns all over the place it looks like a tinderbox doesn't it?
https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife/status/1323808371770884097
What's your path Max?
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
I also can’t see the states with narrow margins escaping Trump litigation, so having a buffer would be... helpful.
Seriously, that's impressive. You have every right to gloat.
I suspect it's this thinking that's driving down Biden's price.
Ah thanks. Don't pay up just yet, that sweep is not quite probable but certainly possible.
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1323890527767416834
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
Casino: "Um, can I call you back? Working on something tricky at the moment."
Wisconsin looks fairly good for him right now.
I think the Democratic focus on the Midwest might prove a masterstroke, and don't forget Pa. is where they piled in most effort which will reflcct in mail-ins, but I still think Joe Biden is only going to win this (if he does) by some bloody narrow margins in key midwest states.
If so he's bloody lucky.
The good thing for his kudos will be winning the popular vote.
I can see Biden squeaking it out if things are free and fair but not sure if it will be.
I think Trump will take Wisconsin. The Dem strongholds are already in.
@Nate_Cohn
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
I don't intend to lock up any cash in these markets for months, even once a winner is known. I'll green out.
- Do not replace simple paper ballots, counted by hand, by an adequate staff.
As a hard core atheist -
- The Electoral Commission gets some stick from time to time. Go to church and light a candle and Thank God for them. And for the quiet army of election officials who just get it done.
If they were, how would PBers make any money from them?
Going straight after the process before millions of votes have been counted will be great for his ratings if he loses, but it will make any judge who finds in his favour look like a total hack.
Surely Biden has this then?
In private, almost everyone I speaks to thinks it's OTT, and some really hate it.
They keep their mouths shut, but they have a private vote.
EDIT: if that's what it's like in the UK, reserved, fair play, polite etc - then what's it like in the USA where the culture divisions are far far worse, and they're much more polarised about who they talk to and engage with?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
I just went back in at 1.63 with a stack.
🤷♂️