Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn Replying to @Nate_Cohn And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
Very clear narrow favourite by a method that was saying 90% Trump or so a few hours ago.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
How does each state delegation within the House decide who to go for?
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
"the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote"
So it would Trump as the Republican have a majority of states if not of Representatives in the House.
So Trafalgar all but go it right again. Why don't the media accept they know something others do not. Bully for them but I fear a future of authoritarian actions. How can the Dems take Pennsylvannia, 700,000 behind with only 1.4 million votes to check. It is only a Mathematical way to vitory, not logical. One other thought if Biden gets over 50% then there really is something wrong with the system. Just an anecdote, local large Hospital on the brink, with deaths from virus starting to take off again. Hope we survive it.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
How does each state delegation within the House decide who to go for?
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
Imagine if the Republicans had a younger, nimbler, less embarrassing, more articulate populist. They would be romping home.
Are you volunteering?
Joking aside - look at some of the Trumpian types in the Republican party who meet those criteria. Then run around screaming.
Trump and the GOP are not the underlying problem, they are mere symptoms. As long as we have divisive social media giving people hugely biased and individually tailored news extreme loons who lie repeatedly will do very well in "democracies".
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
"Wisconsin (probably)"
I think Trump will take Wisconsin. The Dem strongholds are already in.
You can get 4.3 on Betfair on Trump winning Wisconsin.
Biden has more votes to come in Kenosha (which looks very red at present), and probably a few in Manitowoc. Both cities. Both look Trumpy at present.
I don't think the very Trumpy rurals at 95% can pack enough punch to overcome that.
It is becoming clear that its quite possible that Biden could win by one state, and not many EVs at all, so Trumps voting fraud claims earlier are a clear sign that he has no intention of accepting any postal votes counted after today if he loses. So for PA, NV etc legal challenges loom and this is going to be just messy. Its obvious IF he does lose the EV he will do anything he can to declare those votes illegal.
I wouldn't be completely surprised to see USA slide into... if not an outright civil war then certainly severe civil unrest and violence over the next couple of years.
With so much division and so many guns all over the place it looks like a tinderbox doesn't it?
I recall reading an article years ago about the use of Superforecasters by big corporations, trying to predict political/historic events and how it would impact on markets.
One of the forecasters was quoted as saying something along the lines of ‘it doesn’t matter how we run the numbers, it always comes back to the same thing - civil war in the USA within 25 years’.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I think the fear in the USA with the culture wars is that the worry of the other side getting in *overrides* concerns about Trump as a candidate, and the constitution more broadly.
If you think your police might be defunded, or you might fall victim to gender pronouns or affirmative action, then you're gonna vote Trump.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
The linked website is great. Looks like Michigan will be Biden
I don't get AZ. The in-person vote has been 2/3 Trump, so shouldn't he be in with a shot with the remaining ballots?
That's what I'm trying to work out. There's approximately 50 thousand votes to count in Counties Trump is winning and 350,000 votes in Counties that Biden is winning.
But who is winning is not important, it is how those remaining votes will break that is important. If all the blue bits of Maricopa have been counted than Trump will easily take Arizona. If it has been a fair, effectively, Random sample then Biden walks it.
And from the data publicly available (i.er. fuck all) it is impossible to tell.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I don't know about that. The only way to understand what is happening is to speak to people on the ground. There hasn't been enough of that.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I think.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I thinmk.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I thinmk.
Let's see what the result is. But at the very least the country is so divided we could see civil unrest. A Trump win is a disaster for democracy imho. Imagine how he will behave if he wins four more years.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I think.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I think the fear in the USA with the culture wars is that the worry of the other side getting in *overrides* concerns about Trump as a candidate, and the constitution more broadly.
If you think your police might be defunded, or you might fall victim to gender pronouns or affirmative action, then you're gonna vote Trump.
This. The utter cretins who spent the summer in an orgy of destruction, wrecking city centres and decapitating statues of George Washington, should consider their contribution to this moment.
Assuming that he is still alive / healthy. There have been a lot of stories about his health. TBH, I am amazed the campaign trail did not bump Joe Biden off - it must have been punishing to a man of his age.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Precisely. And also unlike the US, a narrow winner does not generally have unfettered control once elected. For a President their power is the same whether they win by 1 or 400.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I thinmk.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I think the fear in the USA with the culture wars is that the worry of the other side getting in *overrides* concerns about Trump as a candidate, and the constitution more broadly.
If you think your police might be defunded, or you might fall victim to gender pronouns or affirmative action, then you're gonna vote Trump.
This. The utter cretins who spent the summer in an orgy of destruction, wrecking city centres and decapitating statues of George Washington, should consider their contribution to this moment.
Well indeed. Trump was stoking those fires and encouraging violence for that reason.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I think the fear in the USA with the culture wars is that the worry of the other side getting in *overrides* concerns about Trump as a candidate, and the constitution more broadly.
If you think your police might be defunded, or you might fall victim to gender pronouns or affirmative action, then you're gonna vote Trump.
This. The utter cretins who spent the summer in an orgy of destruction, wrecking city centres and decapitating statues of George Washington, should consider their contribution to this moment.
And not the utter cretins in the police who routinely exercise brutality?
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I thinmk.
I thought Biden won NE2?
Are we confusing the Presidential with the congressional race?
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
If NE-2 is Biden, how easy is it to get a tie? I guess Biden winning just Michigan and PA, but Trump winning Arizona, Wisconsin and the others would do it. Or replace Michigan with Georgia in the above.
Seems a bit unlikely as Wisconsin seems easier for Biden than PA or MI, and I think Biden probably has Arizona.
Any other routes? Has Nebraska 2nd been called yet? NYT says NE-2 is Biden
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
Yes, I think a lot of the situation in the US is related to the antiquated system they have - the flawed Electoral College, long voting queues, gerrymandering, political hacks as judges etc.
There is no electoral system in the World that can stand up to a close result. Even less so winner takes all elections. The UK does better because it is not winner takes all to the same basis. And it is extremely rare to get scenarios where the result can be decided by a tiny percentage of votes such that low level fraud or voter manipulation can make a difference. Of course PR systems don't necessarily have such problems either because everything is decided by the parties.
The UK system is better because its a granular form of winner takes all. So if a county has 24 seats then those 24 are determined individually not en-bloc. So you can end up with 12 Labour and 12 Tory from a county with 24 seats - rather than all 24 flipping all or nothing on the basis of a few votes.
Philip if you would like to take a few more steps in that direction we may one day turn you onto AV or even PR. Or will hell freeze over first?
AV I'd be OK with but voted against as I viewed it as a stepping stone to PR.
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
If NE-2 is Biden, how easy is it to get a tie? I guess Biden winning just Michigan and PA, but Trump winning Arizona, Wisconsin and the others would do it. Or replace Michigan with Georgia in the above.
Seems a bit unlikely as Wisconsin seems easier for Biden than PA or MI, and I think Biden probably has Arizona.
Any other routes? Has Nebraska 2nd been called yet?
A tie can't happen now. Biden will get one of 244, 260, 270, 286 or 306 ECVs
I hope Biden wins but after fur years of Trump for him to be so close to re-election is depressing. The democrats have to start listening to Trump voters. I'm not saying they are all reasonable, decent etc but for some reason many Americans have chosen to back him. Did the dems do enough to distance themselves from BLM/Antifa?
I don't understand why they are sooooo hated but they ought to be trying to understand why.
It is utterly unbelievable that Trump is this close and may in edge it in the end. It is difficult to imagine someone so unfit to continue as president. Yet still they vote for him. There's a significant chunk of Americans who just don't want to live in a functioning democracy.
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
I don't know about that. The only way to understand what is happening is to speak to people on the ground. There hasn't been enough of that.
He delivered Bread and Circuses to the people he promised Bread and Circuses to. They have voted for more of the same. In that respect he is a successful politician. Of course, he treats the rest of the world like sh*t but they do not get to vote.
I have long thought this is a possibility. If he loses he is going to spend the next 4 years moaning about how hard done by he was and how the election was stolen from him. His base will of course lap it up.
The only way I see this being avoided are:
1. He leaves this mortal coil. The guy can’t be in brilliant health with his McDonalds diet and weight.
2. He’s in jail. I do have concerns that prosecutions, whatever their merits, are going to only make him more popular though (see Gandhi, Indira, for how that can work out in the long run).
3. He’s gone to live in Moscow and he spends the rest of his days angrily calling up Fox News and appearing on RT.
My smart, sassy niece has just Whatsapped me to say "I have correctly predicted every election/referendum in the last ten years, just by going against the polls".
She is exaggerating, but certainly not lying. eg She said this would be very close and the polls predicting a big Biden win were bollocks.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I think.
OK, Trump won NE2 as I expected, and probably the second Maine vote, also as expected. So WI and NC alone only get to 269 - needs PA or MI or NC AND GA, I thinmk.
Biden now over 50% in the national popular vote on 50.1% and with the joint third highest national popular voteshare achieved by a Democratic candidate since FDR after LBJ in 1964, Obama in 2008 and 2012 and tied with the 50.1% Carter got in 1976 but with Trump on 48.2% and with the second highest national popular vote total for a Republican candidate since 1988 after Bush in 2004 he still has a fractionally smaller popular vote lead than Hillary did in 2016.
EC 227 to Biden and 213 to Trump with Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin the key states still remaining
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
Bah!
What was the bet?
He said that the margin of victory (Electoral College) would be tighter this time than the 304 to 227 last time, I disagreed expecting Biden to win a bigger ECV majority than Trump won.
For me to win from here I think that Biden needs to sweep NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA and GA.
Since Trump wins a 269-269 tie, Biden needs to win Arizona (called already by some), Nevada (very likely), Wisoonsin (probably), and any one of Michigan (4.4% behind, 16% to count, Pennsylvania (12.6% behind, but 36% to count, mostly urban) or both of NC and GA (1.7% behind, 6% left to count). Looks possible but odds against, maybe a 25% chance... I've not seen the NE2 result - if Biden won that (?), then he doesn't need Georgia.
Thanks so much to Barnesian for hosting last night - made it a MUCH more enjoyable night with so many iold friends.
If there's a tie I thought under the 12th Amendment the House decides, thus a Democrat wins, while the Senate picks the Veep, thus a Republican. I mean, theoretically, we could have Biden as president and Trump as Veep?
The House decides based on an "all states are equal" basis.
Yep. Which means a GOP majority.
🤷♂️
If NE-2 is Biden, how easy is it to get a tie? I guess Biden winning just Michigan and PA, but Trump winning Arizona, Wisconsin and the others would do it. Or replace Michigan with Georgia in the above.
Seems a bit unlikely as Wisconsin seems easier for Biden than PA or MI, and I think Biden probably has Arizona.
Any other routes? Has Nebraska 2nd been called yet?
A tie can't happen now. Biden will get one of 244, 260, 270, 286 or 306 ECVs
Of course if it ends up 306 that's the exact same margin as last time.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
Gap in Michigan down to 65k from 204k 25 minutes ago.
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
The state or the whole election?
Election. The markets don't understand just how much is left to come in, where from and of what type.
Why is it always the City-folk who are out of touch with those outside the cities, and not the other way round?
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
Agreed, the two groups are out of touch with each other, rather than either group being out of touch. Many of the things that are posted on here about London by otherwise intelligent posters are simply not even recognisable to those of us who actually live here.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
I agree but I have no idea how it can be resolved.
Social media needs heavy regulation. Exactly how will take time and iterations to work out, but if we dont have some shared understanding of what is happening then of course we wont understand each other.
Comments
The linked website is great. Looks like Michigan will be Biden
Hasn't Tom Cotton been punted by smarter PBers than me for the next war by other means?
Trying to get a handle on how much more Red Maricopa is still to come in. No clue.
"the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote"
So it would Trump as the Republican have a majority of states if not of Representatives in the House.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
Bully for them but I fear a future of authoritarian actions.
How can the Dems take Pennsylvannia, 700,000 behind with only 1.4 million votes to check. It is only a Mathematical way to vitory, not logical.
One other thought if Biden gets over 50% then there really is something wrong with the system.
Just an anecdote, local large Hospital on the brink, with deaths from virus starting to take off again. Hope we survive it.
We have to listen to this guy again now for the next four years, although I tend to think our polls have a far better track record than the US
It is all very sad.
The West is in full retreat.
To recap. His lead is at 5pc with 82pc in. He was at 9pc with 73pc in. His margin in Maricopa County has dropped a lot.
The vote being counted now is on the day vote. That looks to have broken sharply for Trump.
So, on my calcs, not only can Trump do this but he looks likely to do so at the current rate of closing.
Thoughts?
I don't think the very Trumpy rurals at 95% can pack enough punch to overcome that.
One of the forecasters was quoted as saying something along the lines of ‘it doesn’t matter how we run the numbers, it always comes back to the same thing - civil war in the USA within 25 years’.
Stuck with me.
If you think your police might be defunded, or you might fall victim to gender pronouns or affirmative action, then you're gonna vote Trump.
But who is winning is not important, it is how those remaining votes will break that is important. If all the blue bits of Maricopa have been counted than Trump will easily take Arizona. If it has been a fair, effectively, Random sample then Biden walks it.
And from the data publicly available (i.er. fuck all) it is impossible to tell.
I would not be betting on Arizona.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1323949799738085378
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1323817136192589825?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning
Biden in to 1.63 on Betfair, I see!
And there's still a lot in Detroit, Ingham, Muskegon and Kalzmoozoo yet to come (I'm ignoring Izabella and Antrim as they're too small). Some in Kent to come too from Grand Rapids.
I'm increasingly confident about this. Biden win.
Remember the Dems have won the popular vote in the last 4 elections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyn5rhRua-c
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/nebraska_02
It takes two to tango.
Well, bugger me. Let's get this over. I was wrong, there was no Blue wave.
Main lesson, every election (and particularly every national election in the US, I think) is unique.
I guess Biden winning just Michigan and PA, but Trump winning Arizona, Wisconsin and the others would do it.
Or replace Michigan with Georgia in the above.
Seems a bit unlikely as Wisconsin seems easier for Biden than PA or MI, and I think Biden probably has Arizona.
Any other routes? Has Nebraska 2nd been called yet?
NYT says NE-2 is Biden
PR hell would have to freeze over first.
I support single-member-constituency FPTP. State-bloc FPTP is not the same thing at all.
The betting has Biden as favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan and very slight favourite in Georgia. Trump is favourite to win Pennsylvania.
If correct, 286 - 252 Biden. Biden still wins if Georgia goes the other way.
Well effin' said.
The only way I see this being avoided are:
1. He leaves this mortal coil. The guy can’t be in brilliant health with his McDonalds diet and weight.
2. He’s in jail. I do have concerns that prosecutions, whatever their merits, are going to only make him more popular though (see Gandhi, Indira, for how that can work out in the long run).
3. He’s gone to live in Moscow and he spends the rest of his days angrily calling up Fox News and appearing on RT.
She is exaggerating, but certainly not lying. eg She said this would be very close and the polls predicting a big Biden win were bollocks.
All this election does is confirm western society is deeply divided. As long as corporations find one of the most effective ways to advertise is to use social media news to drive attention through division then it will get worse.
EC 227 to Biden and 213 to Trump with Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin the key states still remaining
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
Florida lost £250
Biden to win after several cash outs and back in won £4.54!!!
Trump over 70 million looks to be a winner +£81
Biden over £75 m +£178
Overall won £13.54 but after commission on the last 2 bets likely to be about spot on a big fat zero.
Been fun but it is going to end on a sour note if GOP stops all the votes being counted via SCOTUS
Thanks to Barnesian for the Zoom event