IMO the mail-in votes and big increase in turnout are seriously messing with the quality of analysis on the main US networks. All their traditional approaches to analysis are failing and they're just having to resort to saying they don't know.
Nevada looking good for Trump I hate to say it but it's true
If so could make up for the loss of NE02, Trump now 1% behind in Nevada
It would be in keeping with this election if Biden flips a couple of the rust belts, people think he's won and then NV flips which many people haven't even looked at. When I read Jon Ralstons feed earlier today he had real concerns over the Latino vote there so perhaps thats why NV is now looking bad for Biden after all
Hand on heart, if Biden gets the Presidency he's bloody lucky.
I mean, I know he's likely to win the popular vote but if he does this it will because he has squeaked through in a number of midwestern states by the skin of his teeth.
Remains an 'if.'
He's already been lucky - to get the nomination, and to dodge the virus
Hand on heart, if Biden gets the Presidency he's bloody lucky.
I mean, I know he's likely to win the popular vote but if he does this it will because he has squeaked through in a number of midwestern states by the skin of his teeth.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Guy on Fox making the point that "% votes in" is based on actual votes counted divided by EXPECTED votes. He says the latter is being revised upwards in states (hence the % drops down) because of the high turnout.
Yes - i think this is massively not understood. There could be hundreds of thousand of Biden votes still to come. And Biden could win easily and in line with the polls.
"Estimated 95% votes counted" could easily be actually 80% or something, until the ballot papers are tabulated (ie. made ready for counting).
That was his point. Rather than do what we do in the UK, and count how many votes there are first, before sorting them, in the US the "expected votes" starts from last time's total and gets adjusted as each locality completes its count.
But you can bet that this is going to create a problem reinforcing the message of "fraud" and "finding new votes". It's a massively bad way for the networks to present it because it won't be remotely understood.
Indeed. But there's also the point that if the actual turnout in the big cities where the count is slowest was as high as elsewhere, then Biden has scope to add more to his total than it would appear from the %IN figure.
The fact that the estimates of %IN vary so widely may be for this reason?
Yes, i know. I just mean that people are looking at the numbers and thinking that Trump can't be caught in some areas. But ultimately it will turn out that the votes to come are hundreds of thousand higher than the calculations their opinions are relying on. Which will feed a narrative of ballot stuffing after the event for those who want to push it.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Yes. Brown County is Republican but the outstanding precincts are in Green Bay which should lean D.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Mail in outstanding.
Green Bay (a blue city in a red county) outstanding.
Trump ahead by less than 2,000 votes in Georgia! But I think 99% are in.
Tighter than a ferret's arsehole.
If GA goes Biden he doesn’t need NV. Crikey this is tense. Do we know anything about the votes left to report in NV?
According to Ralston the absentees from Clark County have still to come in. That includes most of the Las Vegas metropolitan area. I think Biden's okay there (just).
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Yes. Brown County is Republican but the outstanding precincts are in Green Bay which should lean D.
Kenosha city too will add about 10k to Biden margin.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Yes - the outstanding votes are all mail in. Which are expected to favour Biden, even in heavily Republican counties.
Sorry - don't know how to quote but DougSeal below says:
"The New York Times estimates that there are 1.9 million votes yet to be counted in PA - largely absentees. Politico breaks the absentees down as being 1.6 million from registered Democrats, 586,000 from registered Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters (the different is in uncounted on the day ballots -many in Philadelphia). This is not scientific at all but lets call the these votes, based on that, and, generously to Trump, 3 to 1 in Biden's favour. In doing so we allocate a rough total of about a futher 1.27 million to votes to Biden and 633,300 to Trump.
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
This was probably the Democrats best chance to take the Senate with lots of Republican seats up for grabs. It looks like Republicans will retain their majority, so the democrats can probably forget about ever being able to govern the US again despite probably getting a bigger and bigger majority of voters. What makes it truly depressing is that Republican party are so committed to the destruction of the planet, so we all have to suffer.
If there's an overlap between the gullible and Fox's audience, there must be a lot of Americans with homes full of crap gadgets and quack medical cures
This was probably the Democrats best chance to take the Senate with lots of Republican seats up for grabs. It looks like Republicans will retain their majority, so the democrats can probably forget about ever being able to govern the US again despite probably getting a bigger and bigger majority of voters. What makes it truly depressing is that Republican party are so committed to the destruction of the planet, so we all have to suffer.
One proviso on the NV numbers , lead is down to 9000 but thats with Trumps rurals (his big win places in) There is still come Clark County mail to be counted (and that will be heavily Dem as Clark is their big win place) Dont know how many left though, theres also some votes to be counted for Washoe, much smaller than Clark and was pretty even in 2016 but not sure if its mail votes or on day votes not counted yet there. Those remaining votes will be counted tomorrow. My gut feeling here is that Trumps as close right now in NV as he's going to get and the final votes will tip more D but it will be close for sure
This was probably the Democrats best chance to take the Senate with lots of Republican seats up for grabs. It looks like Republicans will retain their majority, so the democrats can probably forget about ever being able to govern the US again despite probably getting a bigger and bigger majority of voters. What makes it truly depressing is that Republican party are so committed to the destruction of the planet, so we all have to suffer.
Actually this was considered a tough year for the Dems in the Senate. 2022 is supposedly much more fruitful for them.
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Same here I have no idea why Biden has shortened so much. The fact he has put me in profit which I grabbed
Sorry - don't know how to quote but DougSeal below says:
"The New York Times estimates that there are 1.9 million votes yet to be counted in PA - largely absentees. Politico breaks the absentees down as being 1.6 million from registered Democrats, 586,000 from registered Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters (the different is in uncounted on the day ballots -many in Philadelphia). This is not scientific at all but lets call the these votes, based on that, and, generously to Trump, 3 to 1 in Biden's favour. In doing so we allocate a rough total of about a futher 1.27 million to votes to Biden and 633,300 to Trump.
So, adding to current totals, that makes roughly -
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
This was probably the Democrats best chance to take the Senate with lots of Republican seats up for grabs. It looks like Republicans will retain their majority, so the democrats can probably forget about ever being able to govern the US again despite probably getting a bigger and bigger majority of voters. What makes it truly depressing is that Republican party are so committed to the destruction of the planet, so we all have to suffer.
On the other hand it means that Biden would be more easily to resist pressure from the left wing. He can punt trying to work with some moderate Republican senators. The question is whether the Republicans will adopt a total opposition policy or look to return to some measure of moderation.
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Well done CR. I enjoy watching your betting up dates and feel the trauma you go through.
This was probably the Democrats best chance to take the Senate with lots of Republican seats up for grabs. It looks like Republicans will retain their majority, so the democrats can probably forget about ever being able to govern the US again despite probably getting a bigger and bigger majority of voters. What makes it truly depressing is that Republican party are so committed to the destruction of the planet, so we all have to suffer.
Actually this was considered a tough year for the Dems in the Senate. 2022 is supposedly much more fruitful for them.
The supporters of whoever loses will be very angry. Therefore if Trump wins, I would expect the Dems to take the Senate in 2022; if Biden wins, I would expect the Reps to take the house
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
Halfords and Screwfix did that last time (don't know if the rules were the same).
How long has the Georgia needle been stuck? Biden 1.8 on BF. I need to go back to sleep...
I think Georgia have stopped counting and gone home. Which is incredible.
They stopped some time back
The thing about Georgia is the 8% left is in which counties? If its mostly Fulton thats good for Biden as its a very blue County. Clinton won 70% there but this comes down to number of votes now and the gap and whats left, In 2016 Clinton won about 300,000 votes there to Trumps 120k or so. So depends how much is left and the split if its enough to bridge the gap
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
It's ridiculous to shut electronic stores when everyone has to work from home. They really should have been categorised as essential. And frankly click and collect avoids any serious social distancing/overcrowding issues.
How long has the Georgia needle been stuck? Biden 1.8 on BF. I need to go back to sleep...
I think Georgia have stopped counting and gone home. Which is incredible.
I also like the PA solution where everybody carries on counting but nobody publishes the results until tomorrow. Presumably they're still emailing them in to the Secretary of State, who is spending the night on Betfair.
How long has the Georgia needle been stuck? Biden 1.8 on BF. I need to go back to sleep...
I think Georgia have stopped counting and gone home. Which is incredible.
They stopped some time back
The thing about Georgia is the 8% left is in which counties? If its mostly Fulton thats good for Biden as its a very blue County. Clinton won 70% there but this comes down to number of votes now and the gap and whats left, In 2016 Clinton won about 300,000 votes there to Trumps 120k or so. So depends how much is left and the split if its enough to bridge the gap
The New York Times reckon its enough. At least at the moment. 64% chance of a Biden win.
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
That doesn't sound like a grey area. Click and collect is specifically allowed.
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
It seems that click and collect is being allowed across the board.
This will be a very different period - a lot of people appear to be 'exempt' and will carry on working, education will carry on 'working'. The main thing that's been lost is social activities - and I think in that case nature abhors a vacuum.
One proviso on the NV numbers , lead is down to 9000 but thats with Trumps rurals (his big win places in) There is still come Clark County mail to be counted (and that will be heavily Dem as Clark is their big win place) Dont know how many left though, theres also some votes to be counted for Washoe, much smaller than Clark and was pretty even in 2016 but not sure if its mail votes or on day votes not counted yet there. Those remaining votes will be counted tomorrow. My gut feeling here is that Trumps as close right now in NV as he's going to get and the final votes will tip more D but it will be close for sure
It will be unclear for quite a while since mail ballots can arrive till November 10.
Hand on heart, if Biden gets the Presidency he's bloody lucky.
I mean, I know he's likely to win the popular vote but if he does this it will because he has squeaked through in a number of midwestern states by the skin of his teeth.
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Same here I have no idea why Biden has shortened so much. The fact he has put me in profit which I grabbed
Punters doing the same sums we are trying to do.
The big money might be made tonight by someone brave enough (or with the knowledge of how the %IN numbers are derived) to have backed Biden in the small hours.
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Pretty well describes my position now, Casino. Although I had some partial hedging in place on the EV market, so I'm a little better off than that.
2/2 is "there are also tens of thousands of provisional ballots in urban Nevada and some in the rurals. Less sure of that mix, but the Clark mail, if it follows the previous pattern, may be enough for Biden.
By the way, Biden's lead is now below 8K as little Lander County reported"
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
But a very precise one!
I almost gave it down to 1 decimal place.
A 70/30 split on abseentee should give Biden the state by my calcs.
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
These people are providing lots of states/counties with a similar results page but the numbers you have to stick in the URL is opaque so no way toiterae through and work who has a page and who doesn't
If there's an overlap between the gullible and Fox's audience, there must be a lot of Americans with homes full of crap gadgets and quack medical cures
These people are providing lots of states/counties with a similar results page but the numbers you have to stick in the URL is opaque so no way toiterae through and work who has a page and who doesn't
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
Method of vote (Mail in) favours Biden everywhere. Opposite in Nevada & Arizona (Counting in person)
Thx everyone. Makes sense.
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Remember that court case before the election about late arriving mail votes in Wisconsin? That could be VERY significant
Vote totals seem surprisingly low in Nevada, I was expecting both candidates to be above 600,000 votes
Dont know if it would factored in but its a very transient population - if there are few jobs as youd expect with covid then people will leave.
About 75,000 mail votes in Clark County still not counted, based on the postals so far there, Biden is wining those 2 to 1. However it does seem there are still a lot of votes out in the suburbs and some rurals still, (prev update suggested not). so if you give Biden 50k for those postals plus the 8000 hes up now (dropped down from 9 as one more small rural just came in) he has about a 58K lead vs whatever comes in in those suburbs and rurals tomorrow
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
That doesn't sound like a grey area. Click and collect is specifically allowed.
Yes it is. My shop is doing it and we have been aware of it and ready for it ever since the announcement was made.
I'm irritated if I lose my bet with HYUFD, not because I'm disappointed at losing to HYUFD (credit to him if he wins) but because in my head I was going to buy myself Crusader Kings III with the winnings.
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Well done CR. I enjoy watching your betting up dates and feel the trauma you go through.
These people are providing lots of states/counties with a similar results page but the numbers you have to stick in the URL is opaque so no way toiterae through and work who has a page and who doesn't
Lol, it is behind the NY Times. FFS
I have a sub to that for the moment. 2356821 Trump / 2248028 Biden atm
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
But a very precise one!
I almost gave it down to 1 decimal place.
A 70/30 split on abseentee should give Biden the state by my calcs.
Yeah, my worry was that there were more Trump heavy Counties where the mail split would be lower than that for Biden. But the overwhelming majority of the mail is in heavy Dem Counties or at least close counties so the split will be above 70/30, more like 75/25 (unless there has been a horrible skewing of which areas got their postals counted first)
Off-topic but interesting. Argos & Currys are not closing their stores. Instead you will be able to do click and collect. Described to me as a "grey area" they are exploiting. Punters will not be allowed to enter stores, supposedly they are going to stick up a marquee in the car park to hand over orders...
That doesn't sound like a grey area. Click and collect is specifically allowed.
Wasn't Argos always click and collect?
"Shopping for people used to signing on" as Jo Caufield used to rather caustically put it.
OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
But a very precise one!
I almost gave it down to 1 decimal place.
A 70/30 split on abseentee should give Biden the state by my calcs.
Yeah, my worry was that there were more Trump heavy Counties where the mail split would be lower than that for Biden. But the overwhelming majority of the mail is in heavy Dem Counties or at least close counties so the split will be above 70/30, more like 75/25 (unless there has been a horrible skewing of which areas got their postals counted first)
These people are providing lots of states/counties with a similar results page but the numbers you have to stick in the URL is opaque so no way toiterae through and work who has a page and who doesn't
Lol, it is behind the NY Times. FFS
I have a sub to that for the moment. 2356821 Trump / 2248028 Biden atm
Thing I'm caring about is amount of postals outstanding. And the split of mail/absentee currently counted to extrapolate.
The calrityelections site gives the split by on day, mail, absentee but not the outstanding figure.
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
Comments
Quick question / point. Just looked at the NYT website re Wisconsin. From what I can see Biden has a 9K lead but the counties where there are still substantial amounts of votes left are all heavily Republican with the Democrat areas pretty much voted.
Have I missed something?
He's looking good in Michigan, I believe.
Green Bay (a blue city in a red county) outstanding.
If he is right that is surely enough to get over the line there?
It's unbelievably close but I think Biden has probably just squeaked this. Might be me wishful thinking, a perennial problem.
I should make a few hundred quid regardless now. I wanted a few grand, but I got greedy and I couldn't ignore the opportunity to save £3k when I had it - especially given uncertainty.
Guessed that a while ago, and still think Biden will narrowly win.
Must say, before this morning I thought Biden would have not quite a landslide but a very comfortable victory.
82,953 votes.
But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.
This will be a very different period - a lot of people appear to be 'exempt' and will carry on working, education will carry on 'working'. The main thing that's been lost is social activities - and I think in that case nature abhors a vacuum.
The big money might be made tonight by someone brave enough (or with the knowledge of how the %IN numbers are derived) to have backed Biden in the small hours.
Although I had some partial hedging in place on the EV market, so I'm a little better off than that.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323937402889515008
That'll get both candidates above 600,000
By the way, Biden's lead is now below 8K as little Lander County reported"
On that basis, I think there is a good chance Trump wins AZ but will be close.
Also expect the Trump campaign to question the validity of the Milwaukee mail in vote and claim fraud.
NV i think will be Biden given Ralston’s remarks but he has been proved to have missed how close it will be.
NC should be Trump. GA should be Biden. I’m not sure re MI and PA.
Glad I went to bed and did not actually try and manage any positions overnight, although the swings could have been very profitable for some
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary
These people are providing lots of states/counties with a similar results page but the numbers you have to stick in the URL is opaque so no way toiterae through and work who has a page and who doesn't
Fox and the AP have called AZ for Biden.
Bah!
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1323939152812007424?s=20
2356821 Trump / 2248028 Biden atm
"Shopping for people used to signing on" as Jo Caufield used to rather caustically put it.
He makes the somewheres versus anywheres distinction for the US echoing what we've seen here.
It's a views I guess...
The calrityelections site gives the split by on day, mail, absentee but not the outstanding figure.
Georgia 42%
Wisconsin 79%
Michigan 61%
Penn 37%
Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states.
Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs.
I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right.
Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
EDIT Now 1.73 (58%)