politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP
Comments
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Scotland is smaller than London...dyedwoolie said:
Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!0 -
Lab 49,000 ahead of Con in London SO FAR.
So Con lead by 31,000.0 -
Indeed. Even Mother Becket did something Ed The Younger has not.YossariansChild said:is that right about Margaret Beckett? Cos thats a great pub quiz question: Name the last Labour leader to win a Euro election?
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A few thousand Con votes in NI counting Monday decide it either way?MikeL said:Lab 49,000 ahead of Con in London SO FAR.
So Con lead by 31,000.0 -
How is Labour doing in London ?
Have they won ?
Have £60 on that at 11-10 /0 -
Great night
Thank you for the best coverage of the elections anywhere.0 -
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
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SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.0
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Yes, for sure, I wasn't sure if Labour would need a much bigger swing if Scotland turns out as you were.....RodCrosby said:
Scotland is smaller than London...dyedwoolie said:
Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!0 -
Small boost for union with UKIP taking final Scottish seat not SNP says Brian Taylor of BBC Scotland0
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My arithmetic is a bit shaky at this time of night, but Labour are already 50K ahead in London when 30K behind Con in the rest of the nation.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
For London it looks like 3 Lab 2 Con 1 UKIP 1 Green, with the 8th seat between Lab/Con/UKIP.
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Scotland is already in the BBC numbers.RodCrosby said:
Scotland is smaller than London...dyedwoolie said:
Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
It's all down to London. Lab needs to beat Con by more than 80,000. Currently lead by 49,000.0 -
Ed is on a par with IDS in the uselessness stakes.
UKIP, Lord Ashcrost and favourable boundaries are the only thing keeping him in the game.
Oh and nobody in Labour want's to admit Dan Hodges has been right all along, of course.0 -
I'll use that one if its true! I set our pub quiz tonight and I only used the "name the Gib candidate" as my token politics question. Might sneak the Labour leader one in next SundayYossariansChild said:is that right about Margaret Beckett? Cos thats a great pub quiz question: Name the last Labour leader to win a Euro election?
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NO LD seat in London based on 550,000 votes counted so far.0
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It's a shame I haven't heard any commentator yet raise the question of electoral fraud. I would not be surprised if 10% of that turnout was phoney.MrJones said:
If Lab didn't have postal votes as a cushion Cerise would be running for the airport as we speak.Casino_Royale said:>50% turnout in Tower Hamlets?? Hmm.
A full investigation is needed, and a re-run of the election if necessary.
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The irony is that it's pretty much the same sentiment that's leading to UKIP's success in England as is responsible for the SNP's success in Scotland.0
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Well hang on, we might still end up with Con and Lab joint second both on 24%.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
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The Labour leaders to have won a European election: Kinnock, BeckettYossariansChild said:is that right about Margaret Beckett? Cos thats a great pub quiz question: Name the last Labour leader to win a Euro election?
The Labour leaders who never won a European election: Callaghan, Blair, Brown.
Miliband is in that second group which clearly implies he will be prime minister, as all the others were. Wonderful thing, false logic.0 -
Oh no Afriye, .....time for bed0
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London LOOKING like:
Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2, Green 1, LD 00 -
Cheers. I'm trying to work out if I'll win my SELL bet with Ladbrokes on Labour at 26%. On these numbers, I think I should be ok but am too tired to be sure.No_Offence_Alan said:
My arithmetic is a bit shaky at this time of night, but Labour are already 50K ahead in London when 30K behind Con in the rest of the nation.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
For London it looks like 3 Lab 2 Con 1 UKIP 1 Green, with the 8th seat between Lab/Con/UKIP.
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Thank you. Although I would have preferred to learn that from my national broadcaster to whom I pay a licence fee [grits teeth]Y0kel said:Northern Ireland doesn't count until Monday and given the local council results will be pretty much as you were.
The Conservatives are standing in NI for this Euro election., Be well lucky to grab 10k first preferences.
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Maybe it'll come down to how many votes can be found in Tower Hamlets — allegedly.MikeL said:
Scotland is already in the BBC numbers.RodCrosby said:
Scotland is smaller than London...dyedwoolie said:
Am I missing something? Even though Labour will do well in London, are the Tories not over performing versus UNS in Scotland? Will that not tip the scales back to the blue camp?GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!
It's all down to London. Lab needs to beat Con by more than 80,000. Currently lead by 49,000.0 -
what time Tower Hamlets?0
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So, statistical tie for second, probable seat tie for second. Greens 4th, Lib Dems 5th
Someone predicted that after the locals *whistles*0 -
Hannan will shortly show-up the decidedly underwhelming Afriye.0
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LD 1 seat - where is that ? SE or London ?0
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London: No way Lab gets 4 seats to UKIP on 1.0
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OFFS. It was the LDs who lost the seat, not the SNP.HYUFD said:Small boost for union with UKIP taking final Scottish seat not SNP says Brian Taylor of BBC Scotland
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SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 170 -
It's SE Pulpstar - confirmed0
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The "No shit, Sherlock" moment of the evening from the Guardian: https://twitter.com/BaileyNagy/status/470723535095463936/photo/10
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Need the Lib Dems to get a seat in London, Labour to win but not by alot so Con gets 2nd...0
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If a community decides to keep the Sabbath then that's what's been decided. Democratically.another_richard said:So we're been kept waiting by one set of religious nutters in the Western Isles and another set of religious nutters in Tower Hamlets.
Night everyone.
A community decides its procedures to suit themselves, not for the benefit of outsiders.
The Tower Hamlets result delay in any case is due to a high turnout. The "nutters" send their apologies for having the temerity to actually vote.
Incidentally, you missed out N.Ireland in your religious "nutters" rant.0 -
Whichever way the Lab/Con fight goes, I can't deny that those of you plugging the Kip/Con/Lab tricast at long prices were bang on.0
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I think Sky added Scottish MEPs without waiting for the Western Islands counting tomorrow as they are unlikely to change the picture given few people live theremarke09 said:
SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 170 -
Hannah describing the elephant in the room. Regardless of national % UKIP will split the Tories vote and let Labour in. And with vast swathes of the country switching from blue to purple as shown on Emily Mmmmmmmmmaitless's map, dismissing Labour's +9% as rubbish seems rather silly. Not with the kippers running amok0
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I'd rather live in Western Isles than Tower Hamlets.
Let's leave it at that.0 -
It's possible - Lab 32.01% UKIP 15.99%, say. Labour entitled to 4th before UKIP's second.MikeL said:London: No way Lab gets 4 seats to UKIP on 1.
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Supporter of Party X says Party X will win.RochdalePioneers said:Hannah describing the elephant in the room. Regardless of national % UKIP will split the Tories vote and let Labour in. And with vast swathes of the country switching from blue to purple as shown on Emily Mmmmmmmmmaitless's map, dismissing Labour's +9% as rubbish seems rather silly. Not with the kippers running amok
Primary school standard stuff - listen to Kellner - and note that he is a Labour supporter.0 -
1435AHEDW said:what time Tower Hamlets?
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Retweeted by Dan Hodges
Iain McNicol @IainMcNicol 5m
News from Tower Hamlets. It's not coming in any time soon0 -
final result will be... (barring something extraordinary in London or Scotland)marke09 said:SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 17
UKIP 25 (+12)
Lab 19 (+6)
Con 19 (-7)
LD 1 (-10)
Green 3 (+1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)0 -
Sky News - UKIP win seat, LDs no seats.0
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Ed Miliband feels more and more like Kinnock in 1987. Only popular in his heartlands.
Well, London.0 -
Are you able to separate Con and Lab in terms of popluar votes?RodCrosby said:
final result will be... (barring something extraordinary in London or Scotland)marke09 said:SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 17
UKIP 25 (+12)
Lab 19 (+6)
Con 19 (-7)
LD 1 (-10)
Green 3 (+1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)0 -
Not sure that's right.No_Offence_Alan said:
It's possible - Lab 32.01% UKIP 15.99%, say. Labour entitled to 4th before UKIP's second.MikeL said:London: No way Lab gets 4 seats to UKIP on 1.
At 3-1 each Lab is worth 11, each UKIP is worth 16 so UKIP gets the next one.0 -
OGH and TSE will have plenty of new Ed Is Crap material to go at after this Labour shambles anyway.0
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If UKIP is splitting the Tory vote, you ought to be damned worried if any of that 30%+ starts going back, given that Con and Lab are neck and neck.RochdalePioneers said:Hannah describing the elephant in the room. Regardless of national % UKIP will split the Tories vote and let Labour in. And with vast swathes of the country switching from blue to purple as shown on Emily Mmmmmmmmmaitless's map, dismissing Labour's +9% as rubbish seems rather silly. Not with the kippers running amok
Except that isn't the case, as you and I both know. In reality, UKIP is taking votes from Labour too, and in large numbers (yes, they're up on 2009 but that's not saying much).0 -
I gather, the no people were praying that Ukip would win one so that they could say Scots voters were no better than those from other parts of Britain.AndyJS said:
SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
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@JGForsyth: Labour expect to be on 25.7% v Tories 24.5% report @patrickwintour + @nicholaswatt, Cameron would've bitten your hand off 4 that a month ago0
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AndyJS Have you spreadsheeted and totted the votes ?
(A far easier task than the locals !)0 -
Sky News - people on Twitter apparently getting exasperated with Tower Hamlets0
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Sky News - London returning officer is tearing his hair out at the antics of Tower Hamlets.0
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LOL! 1% ahead of Con in the euro elections just one year before a general election.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Labour expect to be on 25.7% v Tories 24.5% report @patrickwintour + @nicholaswatt, Cameron would've bitten your hand off 4 that a month ago
Say's it all really.
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BBC saying London may give up for the night and try again tomorrow0
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Effective number of parties falls from 6.3 in 2009 to approximately 4.7 in 2014.0
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Sorry, no, I'm still concentrating on the local elections.Pulpstar said:AndyJS Have you spreadsheeted and totted the votes ?
(A far easier task than the locals !)
I was up all last night entering data and I still haven't finished.
I'm a pretty fast typer so it just shows how much data there is to deal with.0 -
That's darn tight for me!Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Labour expect to be on 25.7% v Tories 24.5% report @patrickwintour + @nicholaswatt, Cameron would've bitten your hand off 4 that a month ago
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You missed Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll then? Just a poll of course but not disastrous.Casino_Royale said:Ed Miliband feels more and more like Kinnock in 1987. Only popular in his heartlands.
Well, London.0 -
How the hell can it take Tower Hamlets so fucking long to count the votes ?
Can they read English there ?0 -
CCHQ Press Office @CCHQPress · 11 mins
The blame game begins MT @PickardJE: Dugher called Farage a"bullshit artist": Miliband aide: “You don’t deal with Ukip by calling names"
lol0 -
Apparently the turnout in Tower Hamlets was 117%.0
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With this Conservative result tonight, its going to get ever more harder to spin that all Ed Miliband and Labour have to do is turn up at the next GE and they will get the keys to No10 with a majority or as the largest party.....
Bang on the money with that comment. The whole SNP campaign was run on gaining a third MEP with a keep UKIP out of Scotland ticket, Salmond and the SNP Government were desperate to be in a position to spin that they had been immune to any UKIP surge elsewhere in the UK. And they can't blame the only right leaning party in Scotland for that failure as our vote held up strongly despite the UKIP performance.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!AndyJS said:SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
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RodCrosby thinks marginals polls are a waste of time...FrankBooth said:
You missed Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll then? Just a poll of course but not disastrous.Casino_Royale said:Ed Miliband feels more and more like Kinnock in 1987. Only popular in his heartlands.
Well, London.
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Kippers celebrate on twitter
Mohammed Ansar @MoAnsar 1h
An incredible night for the far right in the UK. Amazing things can be achieved with wall-to-wall coverage from the state broadcaster.
United till I die @dennydedog 25m
@MoAnsar let's all laugh at Muslims let's all laugh at Muslims la la la la la la la!
Face it mo soon as ukip get power your fucked!
Nice people! Still haven't worked out where to put the apostrophe though.0 -
According to Dan Hannan, it would be unfair if the will of the people were frustrated by the workings of the first-past-the-post system. FFS!0
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London latest (650,000 votes counted):
Lab 34
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 70 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Guardian reporting Labour may finish 1% ahead of Tories. Probably spin. But if that is true Ed Miliband is in serious trouble.0 -
I think Clegg should go for just before the election campaign.RochdalePioneers said:
And that may have been the right decision at the time. Now that it has literally gutted your party at council level do you agree with the cabal that Clegg should hold on so you can lose a third or more of your councillors running next year, or pull the plug and save something you can rebuild from?corporeal said:
The party collectively signed off on the coalition. I went, I was there.RochdalePioneers said:Beaker following the spin line of "great job by Clegg". Yes, losing 41% of councillors this time and 92% of MEPs is such a triumph
But what to do if Clegg won't resign is another question.0 -
I've not got much -
French open - 9.30am tomorrow
EDIT - Itv40 -
You'll fine all sorts of strange people on Twitter.AveryLP said:Kippers celebrate on twitter
Mohammed Ansar @MoAnsar 1h
An incredible night for the far right in the UK. Amazing things can be achieved with wall-to-wall coverage from the state broadcaster.
United till I die @dennydedog 25m
@MoAnsar let's all laugh at Muslims let's all laugh at Muslims la la la la la la la!
Face it mo soon as ukip get power your fucked!
Nice people! Still haven't worked out where to put the apostrophe though.0 -
London latest (730,000 votes counted):
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 10
LD 70 -
Has tower Hamlets photo copiers broken down? National laughing stock.0
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All the best to those waiting for London. I'm calling it a day at this point. And a very historic one it's been too.0
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This is the prediction from the man who a few days ago declared Farage's career over.marke09 said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Guardian reporting Labour may finish 1% ahead of Tories. Probably spin. But if that is true Ed Miliband is in serious trouble.
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I do.GIN1138 said:
RodCrosby thinks marginals polls are a waste of time...FrankBooth said:
You missed Lord Ashcroft's marginals poll then? Just a poll of course but not disastrous.Casino_Royale said:Ed Miliband feels more and more like Kinnock in 1987. Only popular in his heartlands.
Well, London.
Just ignore all marginals polls.0 -
Q. Where is Mark Senior tonight?
A. Totally invisible.
Quelle surprise!0 -
Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation 5m
>>>Hearing Tower Hamlets has now released their latest count, the result is a firm NO to AV. #Vote20140 -
London latest (800,000 votes counted):
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
LD down to 6 - no chance of a seat.0 -
My twitter feed is filled with Tower Hamlets jokes.0
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720 in Tower Hamlets and about 1650 in the HebridesEDW said:
what time Tower Hamlets?
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With 800k counted that must mean there's still a way to go, doesn't it?MikeL said:London latest (800,000 votes counted):
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
LD down to 6 - no chance of a seat.
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What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job0