Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.
London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.
I can confirm that Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections, 3 days after other councils had already finished. I assume this will delay the London Euro result, unless they've got 2 separate counting centres which I doubt.
Eating a bacon buttie at Doncaster Market Comparing prices in a Doncaster supermarket Looking 'interested' in a Doncaster factory Paying pool in a Doncaster miners welfare 'Enjoying' a pint in a Doncaster pub Looking at a motorway sign to Doncaster and wondering where it is
Why do people think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour finishing 3rd?
Because the average swing Con to Lab in the announced results so far is not enough.
Lab will probably get a very big boost from London and get over the line, but they're well behind the run rate in Scotland, and the South East is not a natural hunting ground.
I can confirm that Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections, 3 days after other councils had already finished. I assume this will delay the London Euro result, unless they've got 2 separate counting centres which I doubt.
Will we have the results for Tower Hamlets before the next general election?
@hugorifkind: Scotland's Ukip MEP is a man who told me I was being racist against kebabs when I said Farage looked like one. Good luck with that, guys.
More crap from London - the London returning officer is refusing to release individual council results. We will have to wait for the London-wide result, and since Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections that could be a long time in the future.
@hugorifkind: Scotland's Ukip MEP is a man who told me I was being racist against kebabs when I said Farage looked like one. Good luck with that, guys.
Final two official declarations of the night come in. SNP retain West Lothian, and Conservatives retain Scottish Borders. West Lothian - SNP: 14,279, Labour: 13,932, UKIP: 5,228. Scottish Borders - Conservatives: 9,972, SNP: 6,775, Lib Dems: 5,465.
Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.
London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.
In the outer london boroughs that will certainly have been the case..
My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.
The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.
Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?
No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.
There's certainly no tidal wave for the nationalist parties, is there?
No - but tsunamis go both ways. And remember this is a party political election not the indy ref, and that both SNP and the Coalition are the parties of government at present, in the middle of their terms.
SNP down (so far) -0.07 percentage points (I think the BBC means), and still first, with same no of MEPs - and almost got a third. Tories down 3.52 points, lose 1/4 of their MEPs. LDs lose 100% of MEPs. [Edit: on results so far.] I think the Tories and LDs would have been happy with the kind of 'defeat' inflicted on 'Salmond'!
@SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist
Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.
Is there not going to be an investigation into the turnout nearly doubling in one election cycle? The whole postal voting seems an affront to the secret ballot too.
Embrace your inner multicultural and appreciate how the electoral practices of Bangladesh are enriching British politics.
I was speaking to a guy of Bengali descent the other day, who was an atheist, so felt fairly disillusioned with his local Tower Hamlets community. He said he always rolled his eyes at how much people in the area seemed to praise Saudi Arabia as a perfect society. That depressed me.
Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
Did we expect anything less from the mainstream media, who are obsessed with smearing UKIP? I suppose they will bury deep down the fact that UKIP refuse to work with them, if they mention it at all.
Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?
Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.
London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.
In the outer london boroughs that will certainly have been the case..
In my inner London borough UKIP weren't on the ballot for the council elections, so who knows what the read across is.
Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?
My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.
The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.
Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?
No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.
There's certainly no tidal wave for the nationalist parties, is there?
No - but tsunamis go both ways. And remember this is a party political election not the indy ref, and that both SNP and the Coalition are the parties of government at present, in the middle of their terms.
SNP down (so far) -0.07 percentage points (I think the BBC means), and still first, with same no of MEPs - and almost got a third. Tories down 3.52 points, lose 1/4 of their MEPs. LDs lose 100% of MEPs. I think the Tories and LDs would have been happy with the kind of 'defeat' inflicted on 'Salmond'!
Shhh... let them whip themselves into a frenzy of SUKIP pleasure tonight. It'll be swiftly followed by their IndyRef hangover.
Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?
@DPJHodges: Genuinely coming to the view broadcasters take no notice of their own coverage. No analysis of fact Ukip is not taking votes from Tories.
Marine le Pen is a very different politician to her (undoubtedly unsavoury) father. She could be the Gerry Adams/Alex Salmond that leads a reprehensible and downright nasty party into respectable government.
We have seen the same process dozens of times, elsewhere.
Marine is the acceptable face of a deeply unacceptable party.
Sinn Fein used to be the electoral wing of the IRA, and SF leaders ordered the torture of execution of single mothers given to comforting dying British soldiers.
Sinn Fein are now an established party of NI government.
I see no reason why the mildly quasi-fascist party of the FN could not evolve into a relatively sensible party of French elite politics. This surely is the unique gift of democracy: it absorbs and tames the wild and violent radicals.
The difference is that Sinn Fein can hide behind the "peacemaker" tag by agreeing to a deal. Le Pen can't do that.
You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.
So yes, David does seem outlandish.
If UKIP are to stand a chance in Doncaster North, they need exactly the right candidate (a factor which doesn't apply in the Euros, of course). Without that, EdM will be safe.
Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
Did we expect anything less from the mainstream media, who are obsessed with smearing UKIP? I suppose they will bury deep down the fact that UKIP refuse to work with them, if they mention it at all.
They did a whole bit on exactly that just before interviewing Farage.
All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.
All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.
Must be nice living in a more relaxed age. (Not being sarcastic).
OK, so excluding the Western Isles (an SNP seat), the final(ish) tally is:
Scottish National Party 386,193 28.91% (-0.07) Labour 346,377 25.93% (+5.11) Conservative 230,569 17.26% (+0.39) UK Independence Party 139,687 10.46% (+5.23) Green 107,805 8.07 (+0.77) Liberal Democrat 95,076 7.12% (-4.42) Britain First 13,551 1.01% (n/a) British National Party 10,150 0.76% (-1.70) NO2EU 6,388 0.48% (-0.40)
All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.
Must be nice living in a more relaxed age. (Not being sarcastic).
Comments
Eating a bacon buttie at Doncaster Market
Comparing prices in a Doncaster supermarket
Looking 'interested' in a Doncaster factory
Paying pool in a Doncaster miners welfare
'Enjoying' a pint in a Doncaster pub
Looking at a motorway sign to Doncaster and wondering where it is
Lab will probably get a very big boost from London and get over the line, but they're well behind the run rate in Scotland, and the South East is not a natural hunting ground.
Let's not get carried away. All the present party leaders will fight the GE.
Yet one of them must come 3rd.
Adds to 11.6%.
Con were 12.0% ahead of Lab in 2009.
Therefore Lab need to do better than average (in aggregate) against the Tories in SE, LON, WM, NW and SCO.
Hibs = salmond!!
Goodnight!!!
SNP down (so far) -0.07 percentage points (I think the BBC means), and still first, with same no of MEPs - and almost got a third. Tories down 3.52 points, lose 1/4 of their MEPs. LDs lose 100% of MEPs. [Edit: on results so far.] I think the Tories and LDs would have been happy with the kind of 'defeat' inflicted on 'Salmond'!
return and cause labour share to drop?
Liberal Democrats have HELD their MEP in the South East.
Possibly, but more likely they would see it as a cynical attempt at buying them back.
Looks like UKIP 4, Con 3, Lab 1, Green 1, LD 1?
Not much colour contrast on TV.
@DPJHodges: Ukip on 30%. Tory vote down just 3%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results
Lab 594,063
UKIP 481,932
Con 351,000
Green 123,075
LD 105,487
BNP 32,826
Pirate 8,597
NO2EU 5,402
Soc Equ 5,067
A good proportion of the UKIP vote has "swing voter" stamped all over it.
Policies are being rewritten as we speak.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?
3 UKIP
3 Lab
2 Con
But it looks like I might win my bet with Mr Fett.
UKIP 25
Con 20
Lab 19 (third in votes)
LD 0
Green 3
Tories ahead of Lab by 1.9% now
Scottish National Party 386,193 28.91% (-0.07)
Labour 346,377 25.93% (+5.11)
Conservative 230,569 17.26% (+0.39)
UK Independence Party 139,687 10.46% (+5.23)
Green 107,805 8.07 (+0.77)
Liberal Democrat 95,076 7.12% (-4.42)
Britain First 13,551 1.01% (n/a)
British National Party 10,150 0.76% (-1.70)
NO2EU 6,388 0.48% (-0.40)
Edit: I meant on the previous thread, not upthread. Champagne is kicking in!
Which cretin in party high command decided that "we're proud of our campaign" and "mid term protest" were suitable lines to take?
LD 7.91
LD look safe - comfortably above 50% of Lab.
Ewww.
Ladbrokes: Nick Clegg is 25/1 to be next Governor of Gibraltar
Now 'scuse me whilst I'm go and cheer the fact Nick Griffin lost.
Will the apes on the Rock swing it for the LibDems ?
D’hondt you want me baby? >> “@Conorpope: Nick Griffin will lose his seat tonight.
pic.twitter.com/hkmTVlMUIk”
Lab got much better swing in NW - surely Lab position should have improved from previous forecast?
SE region looks like 4 UKIP MEPs, 3 Tory, 1 Labour, 1 Green & 1 LibDem. Would probably be only Lib Dem elected across UK.
UNS forecast update after 7 regions
UKIP 25
Lab 20
Con 19
LD 0
Green 3
Labour ahead again